Tuesday, February 21, 2012
2/21/12 For What It's Worth
There's something happening here
What it is ain't exactly clear
There's a man with a gun over there
Telling me I got to beware
I think it's time we stop, children, what's that sound
Everybody look what's going down
What's going down here is the rally of 2012.
No ----ing way, right? Sucker's rally. Short-covering rally. Beware the overbullish, overbought, overvalued conditions on the Street. Alriiiiight, bro. Show me the money. Who's banking coin?
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We're at the sweet spot in the market, where sidelined investors begin to think, '---- it, get me in.'
ReplyDeleteI love this song. Once again u nailed it 2 nd
ReplyDeleteif oil keeps rising these solars r gonna absolutely fly. they have all bottomed. ldk and csiq look best. my wfr looks worst to be honest.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Get the Mac. I had all the same concerns and they are total unfounded. Besides, almost all PC programs worth a shit run on Mac. And the ones that don't...mostly lame trading programs like Schwabs run perfectly on VMW's Fusion. I'll NEVER go back.
ReplyDeleteSWC - "Stillwater Mining Reports Record Earnings of $144.3 Million or $1.30 per Diluted Share for 2011"
ReplyDeletePAL reports in a few days.
LDK - I think this is the better one.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=wfr#symbol=wfr;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
ReplyDeleteWow. Look at the max chart for WFR. This sucker can fly in a short amount of time. Really puts things into perspective. Check out some of these returns:
Sept 94 to Apr 95: 85% - 7 months
Sept 98 to Nov 98: 213% - 2 months
Sept 98 to Aug 99: 562% - 11 months
Sept 01 to Apr 02: 671% - 7 months
Sept 02 to Nov 02: 175% - 2 months
Sept 02 to Aug 03: 290% - 11 months
Aug 04 to Apr 06: 408% - 20 months
Jul 06 to May 07: 100% - 10 months
Right now I would say that the company is basically where it was at late 98 or late 2001. It's been 4 years since it hit its high in late 2007. Since then it's down about 96%. In late 98 it was down about 94% from its highs 2.5 years before. So using the longer term chart as a guide and given how much it is down from highs, there is at least a decent chance of a 150% to 700% return within the next 2 to 12 months from Dec 2011. That would peg it at $9.8 to $31.5 within the next 12 months. That would be a huge gain but not entirely out of the realm of possibility.
2nd, don't forget the big pension funds as well. You get these guys believing its a real bull and say they want to increase their equity exposure by 5% - that's $300 million chasing stocks just from the top 300 pension funds. And these guys pretty much have to bid prices up as their volumes are so high they can't buy on pullbacks like we can.
ReplyDeletefrom wikipedia:
The largest 300 pension funds collectively hold about $6 trillion in assets.[1] In January 2008, The Economist reported that Morgan Stanley estimates that pension funds worldwide hold over US$20 trillion in assets, the largest for any category of investor ahead of mutual funds, insurance companies, currency reserves, sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, or private equity.[2]
Added more GRVY at the open at $2.72 avg.
ReplyDeleteAdded last bit of GRVY at $2.8. Now at $2.69 avg. About 18% of port. Done with it.
ReplyDeleteStop below yesterdays low at $2.55.
ReplyDeleteTo find out more, press 1, press 2, press 3....
ReplyDeleteHang on, and have a nice day!
Man, that GRVY is wild.
ReplyDeleteMark - It has $2+ per share in cash and trades at like 1.5 times EPS ex-cash. In about a week or two they're doing a commercial launch of the sequel to their biggest game ever. In my mind it's kind of a no brainer.
DeleteThx.
DeleteI've noticed the title of a recent Hulbert article floating around the Marketwatch website: 'Don't short a dull market.' We may shortly see market action that supports that view.
ReplyDeleteIs NBG a buy here?
ReplyDeleteHmmmmm....this question begs several responses.
Delete1. Is it going up?
2. NO!
3. I had a bunch more but WTF.
Todays set up: INVN The gin drinking guy calls it 'proof of concept', I find that a little annoying, but sometimes ideas work. More to track: HIMX, JIVE.
I like Jesse's entry on GRVY. It looks good. Yesterday's open would work.
i just turned on CNBC here is what i heard:
ReplyDelete"We just learned that Iran just launched their first satellite. We're being told that the technology required to launch a satellite is the same as the technology needed to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile."
that's it. we're screwed.
If you turn off CNBC it will solve all of your problems.
DeleteMark - On GRVY look at the weekly chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GRVY&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p13559049113
The pullback is right into prior resistance from a couple of years ago. Pretty low risk setup.
SGG - Take a look at this chart and see Brandt's latest updated analysis.
ReplyDeleteWFR tested the 50 DMA again today. Let's see if it holds.
ReplyDeleteNBG - Dunno, but CCH kinda looks like the C&H formation CC was pointing out a couple days ago.
ReplyDeleteSyria - I guess they must have nukes, thus Assad needs not answer to human rights issues?
ReplyDeleteQID, SPXU etc. look to have strong bottoming patterns on the 10 day. Could really start moving.
ReplyDeleteRig - Going to $60?
ReplyDeletePAL - Anybody besides me like this chart?
ReplyDeleteSKUL earnings after hours today
ReplyDeleteAdded a little more GRVY at $2.69. Now at 20%. Trying to keep that the max.
ReplyDeleteI feel like the market is just sucking in more shorts before moving higher again
ReplyDeleteEither that or just consolidating gains and processing those who were buyers long ago at 13,000 who got out yesterday.
DeleteFXE is doing alright and the USD isn't really doing anything. TLT is up a bit, but on a down kinda day that's to be expected. I think T buyers are suckers, but that's why we have the TLT, you don't have to stick around. VXX is at the lows of the day.
I couldn't imagine shorting this market just because it's up, but there are all kinds of traders.
What we need is an extended limited warranty.
ReplyDeletePerhaps FSG?
This is like trying to find a needle in an entire stack of needles...
ReplyDelete"Chris Christie to Warren Buffett: Just 'Shut up'"
ReplyDeleteLOL!
While he may be misguided, Christie does know about pie holes. Apparently his is usually clogged with BS or a fork. If I were Buffett I would donate a billion $$$ to Christie's opponent in the next election.
DeleteI saw that interview last night and thought it was funny. Aren't you guys sick of that also??? And the latest about Supper Pac's..."We are not going to unilaterally disarm."....PUKE!
DeleteNever seen Christie interviewed before last night. I thought it was an outstanding interview.
DeleteI hadn't either Jesse. Hope fully he can get a handle on his weight for his own sake.
DeleteThings to avoid during a job interview:
ReplyDelete1) Don't refer to yourself in the third person.
2) Don't ask your interviewer for a sip of his coffee.
3) Don't ask the name of the company.
Bob Dole doesn't refer to Bob Dole as Bob Dole....
DeleteCoal charts look like crap but my gut tells me that they really start moving as soon as tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteOne word for oil, drillers, coal, NG, and solar. Iran.
DeleteWFR needs to be watched heading into the close. Double bottom off the 50 day.
ReplyDeleteim watching it...slowly eat my gains
DeleteVE - Quite a dividend.
ReplyDeleteWhy's gold moving?
ReplyDeleteFrom Geoff at BC:
Delete"We all understand how much money has been printed in the past few years. Eventually, that comes home to roost in the form of inflation. A very public worldwide printing press may be the final push for the general population to jump into gold. As a bull since 2003, it still amazes me how little gold is owned by people I know. Sure, they may own some stock in Barrick or Newmont, but it is so negligible that it really doesn’t make a difference. A new string of EU bailouts coinciding with Middle East tensions will change that precious metals ownership.
The downtrend line in gold was broken to the upside yesterday. That buy signal may pull PMs higher and if gold can exceed the November highs, all time highs will be tested.
Remember, the precious metals run will not end until party conversations about gold come close to matching the tech talk in 1999. There will be major volatility ahead but hold a core position and trade around it. Buy dips baby, buy dips."
CC- Hmmm...I'm still looking for what caused the spike today.
Delete1. Euro printing.
Delete2. Technical down trend broken.
3. Iran/possible war.
4. Possible war = more spending = more debt = more printing = more currency devaluation. Also higher oil, driller, coal, NG, solar. Yes, the energy complex tends to move together.
What causes it isn't important. That it's happening is all the matters. Half the time the excuses the media uses are total bullshit anyway. Technically the trade was yesterday, but it looks like it's going higher. BTW CP, there's your C&H.
Okay you guys, you are going to have to get good at recognizing these chart patterns!
DeleteWe can all make a lot of money trading these and their mirror images (short).
Look at this chart of GLD. http://screencast.com/t/PLByWXNYq
It makes a low, bottoms, forms a somewhat messy bowtie, trends higher (blue arrow up), forms a Cup (blue horizontal line), forms the handle, gaps up (blue arrow pointing at green bar and entry point) then does what they all do at that point, they give everyone a technical buy signal and run for the border
Biotech's have Big $ reversal bars across the board. GILD, REGN, BBH
ReplyDeleteCC- Re-Iran...So you think they ALL move up?
ReplyDeleteDamn...I'm really getting sick of doing nothing.
ReplyDeleteThat's one cute CEO. Dang!
ReplyDeleteGold has averaged $100 per month off the December bottom, in a channel with a 45* rate of rise. It's been moving "sideways" until: "The downtrend line in gold was broken to the upside yesterday."
ReplyDeleteSilver needs to recapture $34.48 as indication the consolidation of the run to $49 is completely digested?
And then we have the LTRO scheduled for the 29th of this month, which could be a hum-ho or a hum-dinger event?
$VIX.X 0.00 0.00 + 0.00 -0.00%
ReplyDeleteVXX -0.60 25.96 + 25.97 -2.26%
TVIX 0.08 17.11 - 17.12 0.47%
Can someone explain why the VXX has traded the way it did today compare to the other two?
0.05%
-2.22%
0.82%
Nope- Those suckers aren't even close most of the time.
DeleteTVIX just announced that they can't issue any more units thus it will deviate from the futures contract until they somehow resolve the issue. Happened to UNG in '09 and traded at a 15% premium.
DeleteAEM is looking interesting Mark, thinking about it.
ReplyDeleteEver since the Greek, so called deal, Gold has ripped. ECB money printing!
Guessing that bar 4 day's ago was earnings?
DeleteYep
DeleteDidn't bc say something about selling a third of his junior cold miners on the weekend? Perhaps that was the last hanger on before we got the bounce of this week?
ReplyDeleteWFR holding, but it feels like skating on thin ice.
ReplyDeleteLong
nothing like being right on the sector but wrong on the stock
DeleteNo worries, guys. We are, as tof points out, headed much higher.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI don't think they'll move it up in any easy fashion, however. I think they'll gap it up above short stops Thursday morning.
ReplyDeleteBest guess, we correct btw here and the 26 Feb, then run into the end of Q1.
ReplyDeleteFWIW, most likely nothing.
The thing about the market is nothing is specific just opaque or perhaps vague. The market is a constant at dealing with uncertainty into the vortex we go. Or as TOF says we are all guessing.
All the constructs we use to try to make sense of it all is just comfort food for our Brains.
Where's David- out buying another case of Nadurra for the Got Gold party this weekend?
ReplyDeleteevery move in gold baffles me which is why i stay away
DeleteThe absolute best trend in the market, why would you not want to participate?
DeletePlus it provides insurance, just look at NAZI Germany.
It's National Margarita Day. Do we get mail today?
DeleteNY vol is 537225, should just go play tennis.
ReplyDeletemmyt getting enticing...not there yet
ReplyDeleteBest guess, we trade flat with no meaningful correction between now and end of Q1- at which point we spike up.
ReplyDelete2nd, here is music to your ears, guy on TV says NASDQ GOING TO 4000.
ReplyDeleteWe ARE going to NDQ 4000. SPX 1800. DJIA 17000.
ReplyDeleteI notice the TV guy fails to provide a timeline....
Deletegetting close to stopped out of wfr. pretty weak stock yeesh
ReplyDeleteTOF, actually WFR is good compared to some only LDK is doing better.
ReplyDeleteFSLR -1.98 40.40 - 40.42 -4.67%
STP -0.19 3.50 - 3.51 -5.15%
HSOL -0.09 1.95 + 1.96 -4.36%
WFR -0.14 4.47 - 4.48 -3.04%
JASO -0.06 2.07 - 2.08 -2.80%
TSL -0.54 9.78 + 9.79 -5.23%
LDK -0.08 6.09 - 6.11 -1.29%
OOPS, 3rd best JASO is 2nd, any way weak sector today.
DeleteAnyway, there are many people who despise the idea of PM's or perhaps deplore the moral fiber provided by honest weights and measures, I'm not certain which, but here's a chart that perhaps explains in more technical terms:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/2-22amgoldd.jpg
T3d - yeah but just about every one of those solars is above the 50 dma and in a pretty clear up trend.
ReplyDeleteMy mental stop is $4.25. Will be a $30k hit if I take it which will take a nice chunk out of the gains this year. Tough lesson on not chasing things...although had I taken a position in just about any other solar I would have made money buying the pullback. Really the lesson is to buy the ones in the sector with the good chart.
Oh well.
MDW - I kinda like the way this chart looks, and it looks like insiders have been buying, hopefully there's something to it.
ReplyDeleteThe thing about PM producers is the cost to produce may be increasing faster than realized prices, and there's huge risk of mine accidents, low grades, labor shortages, etc., although with any luck, it might beat fracing for oil in your own back yard.
The thing that keeps suckering me in to holding WFR is the $1.5 Milliion in insider purchases at $5 to $6 last August. That's some major coin even for insiders.
ReplyDeleteTOF, what's your basis for WFR?
Deletehigh 4.8s i think
Deleteluckily I only have about 40% of the port in it. if recent history is any guide then today was a fakeout, dropping below the 50 DMA and most likely stopping people out, only to rip higher. that's why my mental stop is around $4.25 to give it some room.
DeleteOkay, I'm majorly celebrating National Margarita Day so take this with the salt used to coat the rim of the glass......
DeleteWFR moves .80 cents a day easily, so a 4.00 stop would be nothing for this bugger. (man I can't believe I'm typing this good). I know you took a major position in this thing (IMO too big but that's how you roll) so do with it what you will.
I think we should be buying on the upswing and not catching knives, but everyone has their style. It is what it is. Noise on WFR is 80 cents per day, a buck would be reasonable.
WFR - Where are they concentrating their marketing efforts, are they still going after the high-end specifically, like Wacker has, or are they attempting to compete with Chinese solar grade silicon as well?
ReplyDeleteMEMC has great high-end product, but I have my doubts they can compete in the low-end solar space unless there are some trade regulations or something like that which give them an advantage?
When I think of MEMC, I think semi-quality silicon, not necessarily solar. I'm not familiar with their current business plan though, just pointing out the difference.
CP - that's not my forte man. you're the one that is supposed to fill us in on that!
DeleteWFR is all vertical integration w/ SunEdison. They get the contracts for the giant solar fields and their poly, wafers etc. are supplied directly into their projects.
DeleteChina is cutting 30-40% of their solar production per government mandate. I wouldn't worry too much about China going forward. The supply cutback should bring poly back to the .40-.45 level which would make margins quite robust for many solars.
Still leaning bearish especially QID and PSQ. Not willing to put any $ into the bet especially with semis trading down 3 days in a row to support.
ReplyDeleteAnything can happen tomorrow and Friday w/ AAPL shenanigans.
I wouldn't be surprised if we gap up a little tomorrow nor would I be surprised if we gap down 100 points and finish down 250.
Risk/reward isn't there for a full-on short/put position imo.
If we don't crash, WFR below the 50 was probably a shakeout. Still watching coals closely especially reaction to ANR earnings tomorrow.
Yeah, I guess my only point is there are many different classes of silicon, but those can be narrowed down to two main uses: Solar and Semiconductor.
ReplyDeleteAs for the rest of it, I can't say b/c I don't know enough about the current supply and demand fundamentals, contract agreements, etc. Seems like the market often just trades on technicals anyway, the fundamentals for MEMC could be fantastic, for all I know.
Even Wacker is pretty diversified it seems, silicon (not to be confused with silicone!) isn't their only forte, which I wasn't aware of:
ReplyDelete"Wacker Chemie AG provides specialty chemical products worldwide. The company operates in five divisions: Wacker Silicones, Wacker Polymers, Wacker Biosolutions, Wacker PolySilicon, and Siltronic. The Wacker Silicones division offers various products, such as silicone-based fluids, emulsions, resins, elastomers, and sealants to silanes and pyrogenic silica. This division also manufactures products used as starting materials in the production of silicones. The Wacker Polymers division manufactures binders and polymeric additives, including dispersions, polymer powders, polyvinyl acetates, surface coating resins, and polyvinyl alcohol solutions that are used in various industrial applications, or as base chemicals in the automotive engineering, construction chemicals, paper, and adhesives, as well as printing inks and surface coatings. This division’s polymeric binders are used as additives in tile adhesives, exterior insulation and finish systems, dry-mix mortars, and self-leveling flooring compounds in the construction industry. The Wacker Biosolutions division supplies customized biotech and catalog products for fine chemicals comprising pharmaceutical proteins, cyclodextrins, cysteine, polyvinyl acetate solid resins, and organic intermediates and acetylacetone. This division focuses on customer-specific solutions in the areas of pharmaceutical actives, cosmetics, and food additives. The Wacker PolySilicon division produces hyperpure polysilicon for the semiconductor and electronics industries, as well as for the solar sector. The Siltronic division produces silicon wafers for various semiconductor manufacturers. Its wafers form the fundamental basis for various discrete semiconductor components, such as transistors and rectifiers; and microchips, including microprocessors and memory chips. The company was founded in 1914 and is headquartered in Munich, Germany."
I think I just finished using some of Wacker's solutions.
ReplyDelete