"Where's David- out buying another case of Nadurra for the Got Gold party this weekend?"
I drove to the Sierra's on Monday evening to ski with a friend there on Tuesday. Returned late last night and then had a few meetings lined up at work today, so I couldn't even check in on the market...
Nice to see VXX down today despite S&P also being down a little. This means that smart traders of volatility futures are not expecting big problems going forward. I think the small pullback we are seeing after the Greek bailout is just a short term phenomenon due to impatient traders "selling the news." That bailout did remove a lot of uncertainty over the next year, and when the pension funds will plug in the lower uncertainty number into their models, they will come up with a recommendation of increasing their equity exposure, which will drive the market up.
2nd_ave, the time for me to get another case of Nadurra will be when AUMN surpasses its previous high at $10.60, which will imply that it is surely going to $12. It seems that the pullback in AUMN is over, which is a good first step in that direction. Now we just need to lift it off above $10.60...
There is something about solars that I don't understand. If polysilicon prices go up, then wouldn't the profit margins of solar companies (which buy polysilicon and use it to manufacture solar cells) go down? If so, then why is WFR trading exactly like FSLR (or TAN)?
I answered, but it ends up under the original comment. YES, the energy sector tends to move together. If oil goes up then drillers, coal, NG and solar go up. Probably uraniums too.
Solar companies - And then you've got some solar companies that deposit thin CdTe metallic films on alternative substrates like polyethylene sheet, no poly-silicon involved!
The ones already trending higher will probably rise faster. I know TOF likes WFR. it is at the 50 DMA and due for a bounce but a bit of a falling knife play. Of course just about the time you think that it takes off (and I hope it does for TOF).
TAN has a lot of FSLR in it, similar to QQQ and aapl. I like HSOL, JKS and STP. JKS has been interesting lately. These are all volatile.
Gold and Greek default - "Greece’s lenders will have the right to seize the gold reserves in the Bank of Greece under the terms of the new deal, and that future bonds issued will be governed by English law and in Luxembourg courts, conditions more favorable to creditors."
david thats part of why i liked wfr...the potential for cuts in production (this is confirmed i think i saw in bloomberg last wk) would raise prices and benefit wfr the most. then add in higher oil which naturally puts focus on solar. this one can really fly if sentiment changes. i just dont know from where it changes. if its here i could see it go to $10 in a few months.
Solar profit margins - Perhaps the profit margins of solar companies wouldn't trend up unless interest in implementing solar didn't exist in the first place?
It seems interest is increasing at the moment, not decreasing. Higher silicon prices will be an accepted result depending on which technology wins the race, personally I'd bet on the mature silicon technology right now, if I were anticipating increased demand for solar.
I guess it's the anticipation of the anticipation that counts, not whether or not the panels ever actually ship?
Another anecdotal stat from Bespoke showing positive expectations for the rest of the year.
50 year chart sorted by the smallest 1-day decline in the first 35 days. Top 10 (this year is 3rd) has 9 of 10 positive with average return for the remainder of the year of 9.08% (S&P 500). The 3 years better than 2012 have an average return of 16.73. Add that to YTD's return and get 25% for the year.
NM reported today...solid report and their logistics arm is continuing to really shine:
Three Months Ended Three Months Ended December 31, December 31, 2011 2010 (unaudited) (unaudited) --------------------- ---------------------
Revenue $ 168,420 $ 164,487 EBITDA $ 63,913 $ 106,272 Adjusted EBITDA (*) $ 65,654 $ 73,175 Net Income $ 11,816 $ 57,503 Adjusted Net Income (*) $ 13,556 $ 24,406 Earnings Per Share $ 0.11 $ 0.56 Adjusted Basic Earnings Per Share (*) $ 0.13 $ 0.23
Revenue from drybulk vessel operations for the three months ended December 31, 2011 was $101.6 million as compared to $119.7 million for the same period during 2010.
Revenue from the logistics business was $66.8 million for the three months ended December 31, 2011 as compared to $44.8 million for the same period of 2010.
(Excluding (Excluding consolidation of consolidation of Navios Acquisition) Navios Acquisition) Year Ended Year Ended December 31, December 31, 2011 2010 (unaudited) (unaudited) --------------------- ---------------------
Revenue $ 664,225 $ 646,350 EBITDA $ 245,889 $ 338,665 Adjusted EBITDA (*) $ 265,366 $ 265,714 Net Income $ 42,267 $ 154,051 Adjusted Net Income (*) $ 61,744 $ 81,100 Earnings Per Share $ 0.40 $ 1.51 Adjusted Basic Earnings Per Share (*) $ 0.59 $ 0.78
"Thank you for your interest in Gravity Co., Ltd. I am Yoon Joo Lee IR Manager at Gravity. Your email has been forwarded from our PR team.
We are going to issue a press release in English regarding the commercial launch of Ragnarok 2 in several days. We are watching how things go with the game as the commercial launch date may be moved one day or two earlier or later based on the results of the first some days of the open beta testing while we do have an internal PR schedule for the game. The open beta testing period is expected to be relatively short and a “testing” has nothing to do with our revenues, we did not issue a separate press release in the U.S. for the open beta testing.
In addition, please kindly find our expected earnings release schedule below. The dates are subject to change. Date Contents SEC Form March 5, 2012 Summary of Korean GAAP (non-consolidated) financial results for 2011 6-K March 27, 2012 Korean GAAP (non-consolidated) financial results for 2011 6-K April 27, 2012 U.S. GAAP (consolidated) financial results for 2011 20-F May 7, 2012 U.S. GAAP (consolidated) financial results for Q1 2012 6-K
For your information, our quarterly earnings are prepared based on U.S. GAAP. Therefore, if you would like to compare the Q3 results and the full year’s, you should refer to our Form 20-F to be filed in April.
Should you have any further questions, please feel free to contact me. Thank you "
DANG had solid rev growth that beat expectations but their loss was greater due to a pretty significant drop in margins. Gross margins went from 22.2% to 13.8%. Not a great sign.
"Germany's government will reduce solar power incentives by between 20 percent and 30 percent from March 9, rather than from April 1, which is what had been expected, a statement released by the Economy and Environment ministries said on Thursday."
Looking at the trading of STP, JASO, LDK, FSLR in early trading suggests that they were looking for smaller cuts. Let's see how they trade today as a tell of how they absorb "bad" news.
Yes that's the issue. It looks like the way the stocks reacted to this that the cut was deeper than expected. But if they trade up at the end of the day then perhaps this puts a floor in them.
Of the solars it looks like FSLR is the weakest with WFR just behind. I still find it strange that WFR is so weak because they have a large semi arm unlike the solars.
"I still find it strange that WFR is so weak because they have a large semi arm unlike the solars."
Hmm, somewhere I saw an article about MEMC's low semiconductor orders. I didn't listen to the conference call though, thus don't know if guidance was neutral or improving.
well its pretty safe to say the germany news was not expected by the solars. probably gonna get stopped out today on WFR. waiting for a close below $4.25. bummer.
Given the turnaround in the market today I think today could mark the turning point in getting people off the sidelines.
If the solar names can finish flat today then I think these could be huge buys because that would also be a big turning point and probably the bottom for a long time. Let's see how they close!
Gosh- I really want to pick up some solars here but I see a very well defined head and shoulders pattern for FSLR over the past 2 months which would point to new year lows which makes no sense to me. On a positive note, its hitting its lower bb today.
Also looking at WFR here. The thing that keeps me hesitant about WFR is all of the insider buying was around $6 last August. The stock has traded 3.50-4.50 for many many months w/ not a single insider buy which makes no logical sense since the buying was spread out among many employees. The only thing I can think of is they may have some sort of a shelf offering coming up as their cash position will be down 50-70% since last year. Just thinking out loud before jumping in.
Gun to head, I would buy WFR here before LDK even though it has the better chart. WFR has had a pretty good pull back and has good potential for a rebound if sector perks up. This is not a bad trade right here with a fairly tight stop. Long WFR
Leadership stocks getting sold off of late- Chinese and solars. Most of the stocks on my list are "acting differently" as the market continues higher.
The smart money indicator continues to drop. I think the market character has changed and even if we squeeze out another 100,200,300 points for the DOW, we will still visit 12,500 over the next few weeks.
I'm thinking I'll make a big bet on the short side sometime soon as sentiment indicators continue to get stretched. If this is a bull market, we must have occasional gut-wrenching pullbacks (1990's) to get all the weak hands out.
If we don't have healthy pullbacks, the market will go parabolic (AAPL) which will pop and turn the longer term trend from bull to bear.
As a raging bull, I'm praying for a pullback. The longer the trend, the faster and bigger the ensuing drop.
Hard to see a big drop going into EOM. Some of the things I'm reading is that we are going to have an event in Europe mid March (+/- 5-7 days). Hard to act on thiese types of things, but gives caution.
And for some totally insane reason, the Fed feels the need to deploy QE3 for Obama's re-election. The Fed always gets what it wants. There's only one way they'll get support for such a move.
Market "crashes", Fed comes to rescue w/ massive QE3 (let's say May), market skyrockets to new highs, Obama is re-elected. Politics as usual.
Jes, just saw your post, yeah a H&S on both FSLR and WFR. On WFR 4.19 is a FIB line number, low today of 4.21. Low risk trade here is but with a 4.16 stop or tighter if too wide for taste.
I would add but I do not average down (hardly ever).
This was written when WFR was at like $12 or so. The more I think about this the more it makes me want to just hold on to WFR for the longer term. It's clearly going through some rough times. Why else would it be down 96% from highs (and 66% from the time that article above was written just 15 months ago). They just did a massive reduction in workforce 2 months ago, cutting total headcount by 20% which will generate $200 Million in annual savings. Think about that: the market cap is only $1 Billion. When the market is willing to pay up for this company's earnings then that $200 Million x 15 = $3 Billion in potential market cap. That's triple the current market cap just from those savings.
I don't know man. I'm honestly debating adding to WFR which I hate to do (averaging down), but I didn't go all in for a reason...mainly that I wasn't sure where the bottom was.
ANR earnings before the bell 24 FEB with call at 10 am for those interested.
Solars tuff call here, last week our electric company said one of the reason our rates are rising is because of many people making a switch to solar which leaves less of a base to amortize costs. F--k, I'm so tired of this state's monopolies the screw us constantly, not to mention politics here.
This country needs greatness in leaders and leaders who want to do things that accomplish real change, Christy for example, has balls and not afraid of making tuff choices. nuff rant
The catalyst for the solar drop last time was when Italy govt stopped their solar program.http://www.thestreet.com/story/11025761/1/solar-winners-losers-italy-drops-the-boom.html Now germany is cutting back. US stopped there tax benefit in 2011 I believe. China seems to be the only govt interested and financially capable of continuing a program. If i was going to look for a solar investment the china players is where I would look.
I sold my GRVY at $2.67ish avg, took the small loss. I'm setting aside money because I need to go through my thoughts on WFR more. I might end up moving a bunch into that.
Here's that article on China cutting 30% of solar capacity. My feeling is that in any industry, fortunes are made during the deepest depths of a crisis. The solar industry just experienced the worst crisis in its short history. Could TAN double bottom at 24? Absolutely. Will it be much higher 1 year out? No doubt.
Having said that, shipping is also in the midst of its worst crisis in the industry's history. Per sentimentrader, OSG has the lowest bullish % of any stock in the market at 7%. Possible double bottom w/ massive insider buying.
On solar comments... Per my method, I'm ignoring the news. If I'm stopped out, the F it I'm stopped out.
I'm seriously considering a solar installation and if I lived in a sunnier climate there would be no doubt in my mind, I'd go much bigger and sell power. The big generators and utilities NEED a shake up and a disruptive technology....the country needs it. It's time that the Microsoft/parking lot/sell me a KWH/gallon or whatever unit over and over get's knocked back and the PEOPLE take control of basic needs like energy and food. I'm tired of getting f _ _ _ ed. The companies get federal and state subsidies, local handouts and tax breaks and credits and turn around and F us all over. I'm all for getting off the grid, I think competition is good and owning your own power generation and selling the surplus back to the utilities for their wholesale price and getting the same credits and handouts they get is all good. It's one really good way to get ahead of the Fed and built in inflation and higher energy prices which we all know will continue to go higher and higher. I also have two large greenhouses that I'm going to refurbish and maybe use to install additional solar capacity.
"Gold’s move higher Wednesday “was a reminder, if markets needed it, that central banks are set to remain in accommodative mode for some time to come,” said Michael Hewson, senior market analyst with CMC Markets."
Jesse -- that article suggests that polysilicon production will keep increasing in China, with only the smallest companies folding but the largest ones greatly increasing their production:
"The expectation that China will increase installations this year has led some solar companies to keep plants running. GCL- Poly, LDK Solar Co. (LDK) and Asia Silicon (Qinghai) Co. have continued to operate their plants, according to Xie. His association acts as a conduit between the Chinese government and solar companies, advising both ministers and executives.
Xinyu, China-based LDK Solar said in November that it plans to triple its capacity and make 55,000 tons of polysilicon a year by 2014. GCL-Poly more than doubled capacity last year to 46,000 tons. Korea’s OCI Co. (010060) is building a plant capable of making 24,000 tons of the material annually in Saemangeum."
The stock investors are a forward-looking crowd, and the prospect of very large supply increases in a few years will most likely keep the current prices down...
Well if the trading in FSLR is any indication then this news in Germany could be a huge blow. Coupled with continued inventory glut for many years down the road, perhaps it's just best to wait for these stocks to double bottom and if so then buy?
Screw it. I added another 10k WFR at $4.28. The stock has basically trended down for 9 straight days for a total loss of 30%.
Longer term this company will be earning $1 to $2 or maybe even more with this recent cost cutting and when it does it will be trading at 15 times those earnings which means $15 to $30. I'm well aware that it's going to probably go lower but the risk-reward longer term is so skewed to the upside that it just doesn't make much sense.
I can see any number of catalysts for this thing to go higher: (1) Production cuts in China actually BOOST prices of poly (2) Reduction in tariffs causes several weak poly producers to finally go belly up, which means less supply. (3) Management shakeup (4) Valuation so cheap that private equity gets involved. (5) Economy improves in Europe thus improving their end markets (6) Oil continues to march higher which finally causes pessimism around solar to lift.
Right now the pessimism is so extreme in this sector. It was extreme last year when WFR was at $13. Now it's just downright silly extreme.
Last thing: on the weekly chart for WFR I am seeing a divergence between price and relative strength. This isn't a perfect sign but for sectors that are in huge downturns that finally turn up, I tend to see this happen. A couple of good recent examples are the banks and the shippers.
TOF, you KNOW, if you threw in the towel the thing will F'ing rocket higher tomorrow. About the time you get sick to your stomach it's time to turn off the monitors and go for a walk.....or add to your position. I've almost arrrrrfed on my shoes a couple times today. It's what makes this so fun!
another example of the ridiculous pessimism on wfr: http://216.105.249.165/Mobile/news?id=437699408
theiir $4.50 target is 5 times 2013 eps of 0.90. if this company turns around and earns 0.90 next year you can be sure estimates for 2014 will be above $1 and people will be paying 15 to 20 times eps.
Guys- I don't have the time right now, but I put together a spreadsheet last year for WFR's historical price to sales ratio. It would sway away from the p/s ratio from time to time but it would always converge over time.
I don't have the exact figure, but WFR would have to rise to something like 16-18 to get to its avg. P/S ratio.
Sometime in the next 4-6 quarters, WFR will do .30-.35 per share. Investors will give it a minimum 15 PE x eps run rate. Thus, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see WFR trade to 18-28 at some point over the next several quarters.
Now, why the hell are the insiders NOT BUYING!!!!! WTF!
Now, if the insiders were to purchase some in the coming days, the thing would f'ing fly. I need to listen to the last conference call to see if any analysts asked about any sort of potential financing. The company would never admit to it, but if analysts suggest it, it will most likely happen. That would be the reason for no IB.
based on my knowledge of the furniture industry, mfg is coming back a bit to the US b/c prices are starting to get comparable to import prices from china (after accounting for all costs). i don't know enough about ETH but they do have nice stuff
Well, if AUMN does go up today, then it will go up some other day soon. With their amazing plans for production, higher gold/silver prices will inevitably translate into a higher EPS, which will at some point push the stock up. I'll wait...
When SORL will break out above $3.50 (and surpasses its early November high), the speculators will pile into it as the patterns of lower highs will be broken. Don't miss that moment, folks...
I've been following a guy named "Teknobucks" on the KOLD board (inverse natural gas) for awhile. He's been on board since it came out at 40 and rode it to all the way to the top. He's been VERY bullish on it the whole time and over the last month has been buying the dips to around the 20dma.
I've never seen him bearish on it. Here's his post from today.
23-Feb-12 07:04 am
"Time to go long BOIL
this is about to get it's teeth kicked out"
Sentiment : Strong Sell Rating : (No ratings) Rate it:
The spread on SGG is just crazy. Placed a buy limit order for 3 May $85 calls at $8.70 and for 50 SGG shares at $90.30. Going out to get some sashimi to celebrate the Day of the Soviet Army today. :) It was treated as the "Father's Day" in Russia...
WTIC - Don't forget, Brandt's WTIC target is $132, so if that fruits there are bound to be compensatory moves (long airlines once the bottom's carved out)?
Thought you guys might find this interesting: " Citi Mobile now includes Mobile Check Deposit."
Dear Craig,
"Download the Citi Mobile app to experience check depositing that’s as easy as snapping a picture. With Mobile Check Deposit, you can use your iPhone®, iPod touch® or Android™ device to deposit checks, wherever you are."
"You can also check your account balance, view recent activity, and make payments and Popmoney® transfers, all without visiting a branch."
"To get started, download the Citi Mobile app and sign on using your Citibank® Online User ID and Password. Then click on the Services menu, followed by Make a Deposit. Be sure to have your debit card handy (you will need it for enrollment)."
closed the WLL HLF and Joy today. King for a week. still have 3 VXX puts at 23 strike. Actually thinking of shorting oil for a trade. If I see any strength in SCO. Like STMP, ETH, LDK long and short TIF. all on stop orders.
DECK- My kids wear the knock off's. So far their pretty cool about that stuff. They always ask how much stuff costs and what whatever is cheaper...Now, when it comes to soccer stuff...Well, not so much :)..But hey, you score 7 goals in a game down 2 players you get the shoes you want :)
Yeah, I know they're Canadian.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/skullcandy-swings-to-profit-as-sales-jump-2012-02-22
ReplyDeletetest
ReplyDelete2nd, Do you have to put new posts over my best one liners?
ReplyDeleteVVUS up 100% in AH and 17% of the float is short.... ouch!
ReplyDeleteYeah, I thought I was doing you a favor, bro ;)
ReplyDeleteDamn, that is a good one-liner.
ReplyDeleteI'd never short a drug play unless I was on the FDA panel.
ReplyDeleteYou cannot short a company that helps men who come up short.
ReplyDeleteBut damn- to be short a stock that moves +100% after hours? That's brutal.
ReplyDeleteWhat's UXG's new symbol?
ReplyDelete"Where's David- out buying another case of Nadurra for the Got Gold party this weekend?"
ReplyDeleteI drove to the Sierra's on Monday evening to ski with a friend there on Tuesday. Returned late last night and then had a few meetings lined up at work today, so I couldn't even check in on the market...
Nice to see VXX down today despite S&P also being down a little. This means that smart traders of volatility futures are not expecting big problems going forward. I think the small pullback we are seeing after the Greek bailout is just a short term phenomenon due to impatient traders "selling the news." That bailout did remove a lot of uncertainty over the next year, and when the pension funds will plug in the lower uncertainty number into their models, they will come up with a recommendation of increasing their equity exposure, which will drive the market up.
“China is cutting 30-40% of their solar production per government mandate. I wouldn't worry too much about China going forward.”
ReplyDeleteJesse -- do you have a link to this information? Thanks!
2nd_ave, the time for me to get another case of Nadurra will be when AUMN surpasses its previous high at $10.60, which will imply that it is surely going to $12. It seems that the pullback in AUMN is over, which is a good first step in that direction. Now we just need to lift it off above $10.60...
ReplyDeleteThere is something about solars that I don't understand. If polysilicon prices go up, then wouldn't the profit margins of solar companies (which buy polysilicon and use it to manufacture solar cells) go down? If so, then why is WFR trading exactly like FSLR (or TAN)?
ReplyDeleteIran and the energy sector, plain and simple.
DeleteCC- You probably missed my reply in the last thread about this. Are you thinking ALL energy plays rise on this issue?
DeleteI answered, but it ends up under the original comment. YES, the energy sector tends to move together. If oil goes up then drillers, coal, NG and solar go up. Probably uraniums too.
DeleteThx..I wasn't sure about solar. How far back is this relevant?
DeleteSolar companies - And then you've got some solar companies that deposit thin CdTe metallic films on alternative substrates like polyethylene sheet, no poly-silicon involved!
ReplyDeleteUXG's new ticker is MUX
ReplyDeleteThanks Papi!
DeleteDamn...That was a hell of a run off 3.00.
DeleteCraig -- yes, the rising tide lifts all boats, but which of them will rise faster in the face of increasing polysilicon prices: WFR or TAN?
ReplyDeleteThe ones already trending higher will probably rise faster.
DeleteI know TOF likes WFR. it is at the 50 DMA and due for a bounce but a bit of a falling knife play. Of course just about the time you think that it takes off (and I hope it does for TOF).
TAN has a lot of FSLR in it, similar to QQQ and aapl.
I like HSOL, JKS and STP. JKS has been interesting lately. These are all volatile.
Gold and Greek default - "Greece’s lenders will have the right to seize the gold reserves in the Bank of Greece under the terms of the new deal, and that future bonds issued will be governed by English law and in Luxembourg courts, conditions more favorable to creditors."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/22/world/europe/euro-zone-leaders-agree-on-new-greek-bailout.html?_r=1&ref=racheldonadio
david thats part of why i liked wfr...the potential for cuts in production (this is confirmed i think i saw in bloomberg last wk) would raise prices and benefit wfr the most. then add in higher oil which naturally puts focus on solar. this one can really fly if sentiment changes. i just dont know from where it changes. if its here i could see it go to $10 in a few months.
ReplyDeleteSolar profit margins - Perhaps the profit margins of solar companies wouldn't trend up unless interest in implementing solar didn't exist in the first place?
ReplyDeleteIt seems interest is increasing at the moment, not decreasing. Higher silicon prices will be an accepted result depending on which technology wins the race, personally I'd bet on the mature silicon technology right now, if I were anticipating increased demand for solar.
I guess it's the anticipation of the anticipation that counts, not whether or not the panels ever actually ship?
Negative news out on WFR after close:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/23/markets-ratings-memc-idUSWNA077520120223?feedType=RSS&feedName=marketsNews&rpc=43
Peter Brandt needs someone to hand carry some documents to the California Secretary of State’s office at 1500 11th Street, Sacramento.
ReplyDeletePerfect way to score some Brownie points and do a favor for a good guy if you've got the inclination.
FTWR - Cheap enough yet?
ReplyDeleteThanks for keeping the Canadian content up 2nd!
ReplyDeleteAnother anecdotal stat from Bespoke showing positive expectations for the rest of the year.
50 year chart sorted by the smallest 1-day decline in the first 35 days. Top 10 (this year is 3rd) has 9 of 10 positive with average return for the remainder of the year of 9.08% (S&P 500). The 3 years better than 2012 have an average return of 16.73. Add that to YTD's return and get 25% for the year.
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/2/22/a-year-of-minimal-declines-so-far.html
NM reported today...solid report and their logistics arm is continuing to really shine:
ReplyDeleteThree Months Ended Three Months Ended
December 31, December 31,
2011 2010
(unaudited) (unaudited)
--------------------- ---------------------
Revenue $ 168,420 $ 164,487
EBITDA $ 63,913 $ 106,272
Adjusted EBITDA (*) $ 65,654 $ 73,175
Net Income $ 11,816 $ 57,503
Adjusted Net Income (*) $ 13,556 $ 24,406
Earnings Per Share $ 0.11 $ 0.56
Adjusted Basic Earnings Per Share
(*) $ 0.13 $ 0.23
Revenue from drybulk vessel operations for the three months ended December 31, 2011 was $101.6 million as compared to $119.7 million for the same period during 2010.
Revenue from the logistics business was $66.8 million for the three months ended December 31, 2011 as compared to $44.8 million for the same period of 2010.
(Excluding (Excluding
consolidation of consolidation of
Navios Acquisition) Navios Acquisition)
Year Ended Year Ended
December 31, December 31,
2011 2010
(unaudited) (unaudited)
--------------------- ---------------------
Revenue $ 664,225 $ 646,350
EBITDA $ 245,889 $ 338,665
Adjusted EBITDA (*) $ 265,366 $ 265,714
Net Income $ 42,267 $ 154,051
Adjusted Net Income (*) $ 61,744 $ 81,100
Earnings Per Share $ 0.40 $ 1.51
Adjusted Basic Earnings Per Share
(*) $ 0.59 $ 0.78
From the IR at GRVY:
ReplyDelete"Thank you for your interest in Gravity Co., Ltd. I am Yoon Joo Lee IR Manager at Gravity. Your email has been forwarded from our PR team.
We are going to issue a press release in English regarding the commercial launch of Ragnarok 2 in several days. We are watching how things go with the game as the commercial launch date may be moved one day or two earlier or later based on the results of the first some days of the open beta testing while we do have an internal PR schedule for the game. The open beta testing period is expected to be relatively short and a “testing” has nothing to do with our revenues, we did not issue a separate press release in the U.S. for the open beta testing.
In addition, please kindly find our expected earnings release schedule below. The dates are subject to change.
Date Contents SEC Form
March 5, 2012 Summary of Korean GAAP (non-consolidated) financial results for 2011 6-K
March 27, 2012 Korean GAAP (non-consolidated) financial results for 2011 6-K
April 27, 2012 U.S. GAAP (consolidated) financial results for 2011 20-F
May 7, 2012 U.S. GAAP (consolidated) financial results for Q1 2012 6-K
For your information, our quarterly earnings are prepared based on U.S. GAAP. Therefore, if you would like to compare the Q3 results and the full year’s, you should refer to our Form 20-F to be filed in April.
Should you have any further questions, please feel free to contact me.
Thank you "
DANG had solid rev growth that beat expectations but their loss was greater due to a pretty significant drop in margins. Gross margins went from 22.2% to 13.8%. Not a great sign.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/23/germany-solar-idUSL5E8DN63J20120223?feedType=RSS&feedName=utilitiesSector&rpc=43
ReplyDelete"Germany's government will reduce solar power incentives by between 20 percent and 30 percent from March 9, rather than from April 1, which is what had been expected, a statement released by the Economy and Environment ministries said on Thursday."
Looking at the trading of STP, JASO, LDK, FSLR in early trading suggests that they were looking for smaller cuts. Let's see how they trade today as a tell of how they absorb "bad" news.
Germany's cut isn't a surprise, perhaps the magnitude is...?
ReplyDeleteYes that's the issue. It looks like the way the stocks reacted to this that the cut was deeper than expected. But if they trade up at the end of the day then perhaps this puts a floor in them.
DeleteOf the solars it looks like FSLR is the weakest with WFR just behind. I still find it strange that WFR is so weak because they have a large semi arm unlike the solars.
HP - Forecast disappointment
ReplyDelete"I still find it strange that WFR is so weak because they have a large semi arm unlike the solars."
ReplyDeleteHmm, somewhere I saw an article about MEMC's low semiconductor orders. I didn't listen to the conference call though, thus don't know if guidance was neutral or improving.
well its pretty safe to say the germany news was not expected by the solars. probably gonna get stopped out today on WFR. waiting for a close below $4.25. bummer.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like LDK continues to outperform in the solar sector. That's one to keep in mind when things do change for them.
ReplyDeleteUS coal seems off this morning (ANR/BTU), but Chinese coal is up (SCOK/LLEN) - Just an observation.
ReplyDeleteCopper off a little, sugar up slightly
Geeze, let's please not get into another big selling mood when things are looking up...
GRVY took yet another dump...I wonder if they're just shaking the tree to get people out. I still see a series of higher lows.
ReplyDeleteAll right. Stinky's in bro. 2.50/.48
DeleteCoal - Sheesh, the US builds one nuclear plant and finds some natural gas with nowhere to store it and suddenly coal is out of the picture?
ReplyDeletethats the beauty of the market: always over reacting.
DeleteSGG - Wonder when they roll forward to the next contract, maybe we're observing the effect now?
ReplyDeleteHPQ - Still hasn't fallen out of the channel...
ReplyDeleteLDK rallying back to almost breakeven. Yep this is DEFINITELY the solar to own fellas.
ReplyDeleteAlright. Dispensed with the selloff crap at the open, and now free to fly. We don't need weak hands fumbling the ball.
ReplyDeleteMITK might be putting in a huge hammer today on the daily.
ReplyDeleteLater bros.
Given the turnaround in the market today I think today could mark the turning point in getting people off the sidelines.
ReplyDeleteIf the solar names can finish flat today then I think these could be huge buys because that would also be a big turning point and probably the bottom for a long time. Let's see how they close!
If they don't close flat then I think it's probably time to start ignoring the whole sector except maybe LDK.
Deletewow anyone catch the move in DRYS? 75% in a couple of weeks with a huge reversal bar today.
ReplyDeletevxx dropping again. option buyers say melt up.
ReplyDeleteMelt up...... Melt way up, big fella!
ReplyDeleteJust wrote a poem about it, will recite it along with other favorites around the fire at our next camping trip. ;)
My enthusiasm is terrifying.
If i crawled into your sleeping bag late at night would you tell anyone?
ReplyDeleteGosh- I really want to pick up some solars here but I see a very well defined head and shoulders pattern for FSLR over the past 2 months which would point to new year lows which makes no sense to me. On a positive note, its hitting its lower bb today.
ReplyDeleteAlso looking at WFR here. The thing that keeps me hesitant about WFR is all of the insider buying was around $6 last August. The stock has traded 3.50-4.50 for many many months w/ not a single insider buy which makes no logical sense since the buying was spread out among many employees. The only thing I can think of is they may have some sort of a shelf offering coming up as their cash position will be down 50-70% since last year. Just thinking out loud before jumping in.
Gun to head, I would buy WFR here before LDK even though it has the better chart. WFR has had a pretty good pull back and has good potential for a rebound if sector perks up. This is not a bad trade right here with a fairly tight stop. Long WFR
ReplyDeleteFSLR -2.76 37.69 + 37.70 -6.82%
STP -0.20 3.29 + 3.30 -5.72%
HSOL -0.12 1.82 - 1.83 -6.16%
WFR -0.11 4.33 - 4.34 -2.36%
JASO -0.16 1.91 + 1.92 -7.69%
TSL -0.88 8.87 + 8.88 -9.02%
LDK -0.15 5.99 - 6.01 -2.44%
Leadership stocks getting sold off of late- Chinese and solars. Most of the stocks on my list are "acting differently" as the market continues higher.
ReplyDeleteThe smart money indicator continues to drop. I think the market character has changed and even if we squeeze out another 100,200,300 points for the DOW, we will still visit 12,500 over the next few weeks.
I'm thinking I'll make a big bet on the short side sometime soon as sentiment indicators continue to get stretched. If this is a bull market, we must have occasional gut-wrenching pullbacks (1990's) to get all the weak hands out.
DeleteIf we don't have healthy pullbacks, the market will go parabolic (AAPL) which will pop and turn the longer term trend from bull to bear.
As a raging bull, I'm praying for a pullback. The longer the trend, the faster and bigger the ensuing drop.
Hard to see a big drop going into EOM. Some of the things I'm reading is that we are going to have an event in Europe mid March (+/- 5-7 days). Hard to act on thiese types of things, but gives caution.
DeleteAnd for some totally insane reason, the Fed feels the need to deploy QE3 for Obama's re-election. The Fed always gets what it wants. There's only one way they'll get support for such a move.
DeleteMarket "crashes", Fed comes to rescue w/ massive QE3 (let's say May), market skyrockets to new highs, Obama is re-elected. Politics as usual.
I agree T3- They'll most likely close the monthly bar at or near the highs. I wouldn't expect any major fireworks until March.
DeleteHaven't checked yet, but I believe AAPL fireworks are scheduled for the 1-4pm timeslot. Or perhaps they'll announce tomorrow after the meeting?
ReplyDeleteJes, just saw your post, yeah a H&S on both FSLR and WFR. On WFR 4.19 is a FIB line number, low today of 4.21. Low risk trade here is but with a 4.16 stop or tighter if too wide for taste.
ReplyDeleteI would add but I do not average down (hardly ever).
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40109740/MEMC_Electronics_From_Laggard_to_Leader
ReplyDeleteThis was written when WFR was at like $12 or so. The more I think about this the more it makes me want to just hold on to WFR for the longer term. It's clearly going through some rough times. Why else would it be down 96% from highs (and 66% from the time that article above was written just 15 months ago). They just did a massive reduction in workforce 2 months ago, cutting total headcount by 20% which will generate $200 Million in annual savings. Think about that: the market cap is only $1 Billion. When the market is willing to pay up for this company's earnings then that $200 Million x 15 = $3 Billion in potential market cap. That's triple the current market cap just from those savings.
I don't know man. I'm honestly debating adding to WFR which I hate to do (averaging down), but I didn't go all in for a reason...mainly that I wasn't sure where the bottom was.
ANR earnings before the bell 24 FEB with call at 10 am for those interested.
ReplyDeleteSolars tuff call here, last week our electric company said one of the reason our rates are rising is because of many people making a switch to solar which leaves less of a base to amortize costs. F--k, I'm so tired of this state's monopolies the screw us constantly, not to mention politics here.
This country needs greatness in leaders and leaders who want to do things that accomplish real change, Christy for example, has balls and not afraid of making tuff choices. nuff rant
The catalyst for the solar drop last time was when Italy govt stopped their solar program.http://www.thestreet.com/story/11025761/1/solar-winners-losers-italy-drops-the-boom.html
ReplyDeleteNow germany is cutting back. US stopped there tax benefit in 2011 I believe. China seems to be the only govt interested and financially capable of continuing a program. If i was going to look for a solar investment the china players is where I would look.
I guess that's the point with WFR...I believe more than half of their revs are from semis.
DeleteKBR and MDR both strong. Mark my words MDR will just keep grinding higher.
ReplyDeleteFIO, I still have 1/2 position on since the spike on a INTC buyout rumuor which down 10% of where sold.
Debating between FIO and NXPI foe EOM/BOM trade.
my typing sucks
DeleteI'm glad you said it because I was like. What? FIO has been on my watch since ipo. wild wild ride. Isn't a lock up period ending now?
Deletei think lockup ended 2/15.
Deletei can't get over my initial thoughts on that: that this is a commodity product and as a result it shouldn't be trading at huge multiples on earnings.
That's absurd! Silver is up more than 3% now and AUMN is up less than 1%? WTF???
ReplyDeleteThe drop in TAN is very unpleasant... I will hate to do it, but I will probably stop myself out if TAN drops below the late-January low of $29.30...
ReplyDeleteI sold my GRVY at $2.67ish avg, took the small loss. I'm setting aside money because I need to go through my thoughts on WFR more. I might end up moving a bunch into that.
ReplyDeleteWould someone please buy some copper?!?!?
ReplyDeleteHere's that article on China cutting 30% of solar capacity. My feeling is that in any industry, fortunes are made during the deepest depths of a crisis. The solar industry just experienced the worst crisis in its short history. Could TAN double bottom at 24? Absolutely. Will it be much higher 1 year out? No doubt.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, shipping is also in the midst of its worst crisis in the industry's history. Per sentimentrader, OSG has the lowest bullish % of any stock in the market at 7%. Possible double bottom w/ massive insider buying.
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-16/china-solar-silicon-production-curbed-30-to-lift-prices-energy
On solar comments...
DeletePer my method, I'm ignoring the news. If I'm stopped out, the F it I'm stopped out.
I'm seriously considering a solar installation and if I lived in a sunnier climate there would be no doubt in my mind, I'd go much bigger and sell power. The big generators and utilities NEED a shake up and a disruptive technology....the country needs it. It's time that the Microsoft/parking lot/sell me a KWH/gallon or whatever unit over and over get's knocked back and the PEOPLE take control of basic needs like energy and food. I'm tired of getting f _ _ _ ed.
The companies get federal and state subsidies, local handouts and tax breaks and credits and turn around and F us all over. I'm all for getting off the grid, I think competition is good and owning your own power generation and selling the surplus back to the utilities for their wholesale price and getting the same credits and handouts they get is all good. It's one really good way to get ahead of the Fed and built in inflation and higher energy prices which we all know will continue to go higher and higher. I also have two large greenhouses that I'm going to refurbish and maybe use to install additional solar capacity.
"Gold’s move higher Wednesday “was a reminder, if markets needed it, that central banks are set to remain in accommodative mode for some time to come,” said Michael Hewson, senior market analyst with CMC Markets."
ReplyDeleteJesse -- that article suggests that polysilicon production will keep increasing in China, with only the smallest companies folding but the largest ones greatly increasing their production:
ReplyDelete"The expectation that China will increase installations this year has led some solar companies to keep plants running. GCL- Poly, LDK Solar Co. (LDK) and Asia Silicon (Qinghai) Co. have continued to operate their plants, according to Xie. His association acts as a conduit between the Chinese government and solar companies, advising both ministers and executives.
Xinyu, China-based LDK Solar said in November that it plans to triple its capacity and make 55,000 tons of polysilicon a year by 2014. GCL-Poly more than doubled capacity last year to 46,000 tons. Korea’s OCI Co. (010060) is building a plant capable of making 24,000 tons of the material annually in Saemangeum."
The stock investors are a forward-looking crowd, and the prospect of very large supply increases in a few years will most likely keep the current prices down...
Well if the trading in FSLR is any indication then this news in Germany could be a huge blow. Coupled with continued inventory glut for many years down the road, perhaps it's just best to wait for these stocks to double bottom and if so then buy?
ReplyDeleteScrew it. I added another 10k WFR at $4.28. The stock has basically trended down for 9 straight days for a total loss of 30%.
ReplyDeleteLonger term this company will be earning $1 to $2 or maybe even more with this recent cost cutting and when it does it will be trading at 15 times those earnings which means $15 to $30. I'm well aware that it's going to probably go lower but the risk-reward longer term is so skewed to the upside that it just doesn't make much sense.
Now about 50% long WFR.
I can see any number of catalysts for this thing to go higher:
Delete(1) Production cuts in China actually BOOST prices of poly
(2) Reduction in tariffs causes several weak poly producers to finally go belly up, which means less supply.
(3) Management shakeup
(4) Valuation so cheap that private equity gets involved.
(5) Economy improves in Europe thus improving their end markets
(6) Oil continues to march higher which finally causes pessimism around solar to lift.
Right now the pessimism is so extreme in this sector. It was extreme last year when WFR was at $13. Now it's just downright silly extreme.
Last thing: on the weekly chart for WFR I am seeing a divergence between price and relative strength. This isn't a perfect sign but for sectors that are in huge downturns that finally turn up, I tend to see this happen. A couple of good recent examples are the banks and the shippers.
DeleteTOF, you KNOW, if you threw in the towel the thing will F'ing rocket higher tomorrow. About the time you get sick to your stomach it's time to turn off the monitors and go for a walk.....or add to your position.
DeleteI've almost arrrrrfed on my shoes a couple times today. It's what makes this so fun!
I like how LDK is reacting.
ReplyDeleteanother example of the ridiculous pessimism on wfr:
ReplyDeletehttp://216.105.249.165/Mobile/news?id=437699408
theiir $4.50 target is 5 times 2013 eps of 0.90. if this company turns around and earns 0.90 next year you can be sure estimates for 2014 will be above $1 and people will be paying 15 to 20 times eps.
Guys- I don't have the time right now, but I put together a spreadsheet last year for WFR's historical price to sales ratio. It would sway away from the p/s ratio from time to time but it would always converge over time.
DeleteI don't have the exact figure, but WFR would have to rise to something like 16-18 to get to its avg. P/S ratio.
Sometime in the next 4-6 quarters, WFR will do .30-.35 per share. Investors will give it a minimum 15 PE x eps run rate. Thus, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see WFR trade to 18-28 at some point over the next several quarters.
Now, why the hell are the insiders NOT BUYING!!!!! WTF!
Now, if the insiders were to purchase some in the coming days, the thing would f'ing fly. I need to listen to the last conference call to see if any analysts asked about any sort of potential financing. The company would never admit to it, but if analysts suggest it, it will most likely happen. That would be the reason for no IB.
DeleteTeam, let forget silicon for a while and talk hardwood. Is ETH overvalued here. I like the bull flag on the daily.
ReplyDeletebased on my knowledge of the furniture industry, mfg is coming back a bit to the US b/c prices are starting to get comparable to import prices from china (after accounting for all costs). i don't know enough about ETH but they do have nice stuff
DeleteWhat do you know about FBN?
Deletethanks. i think eth just goes up with housing sector in general. I have a buy stop at 25.56 if the up trend continues.
DeleteGood place to go long here at 4.26 for WFR. Stop at 4.21. No position. Looks to be setting up on 10 day.
ReplyDeleteWell, if AUMN does go up today, then it will go up some other day soon. With their amazing plans for production, higher gold/silver prices will inevitably translate into a higher EPS, which will at some point push the stock up. I'll wait...
ReplyDeleteWhen SORL will break out above $3.50 (and surpasses its early November high), the speculators will pile into it as the patterns of lower highs will be broken. Don't miss that moment, folks...
ReplyDeleteSGG - Sugar taking off?
ReplyDeleteI think so. I'll buy some SGG calls now...
DeleteIPSU:)
DeleteOK guys-
ReplyDeleteI've been following a guy named "Teknobucks" on the KOLD board (inverse natural gas) for awhile. He's been on board since it came out at 40 and rode it to all the way to the top. He's been VERY bullish on it the whole time and over the last month has been buying the dips to around the 20dma.
I've never seen him bearish on it. Here's his post from today.
23-Feb-12 07:04 am
"Time to go long BOIL
this is about to get it's teeth kicked out"
Sentiment : Strong Sell
Rating :
(No ratings)
Rate it:
teknobucks
54/Male
32034
Btw- oil to gas ratio in a channel peaking at 43 in mid-Jan, 42 mid-Feb. and will close around 41 today.
DeleteBased on their relative energy output, the historical band has always been 6-10.
you cant make this up: "hearing vague chatter that apple is interested in buying fio"
ReplyDeleteMighty damn quiet over at cc...
ReplyDeleteThe spread on SGG is just crazy. Placed a buy limit order for 3 May $85 calls at $8.70 and for 50 SGG shares at $90.30. Going out to get some sashimi to celebrate the Day of the Soviet Army today. :) It was treated as the "Father's Day" in Russia...
ReplyDeleteIPSU - I'm under the impression IPSU only processes but doesn't actually grow, sugar cane???
ReplyDeleteThat's correct sir!
DeleteWTIC - Don't forget, Brandt's WTIC target is $132, so if that fruits there are bound to be compensatory moves (long airlines once the bottom's carved out)?
ReplyDeleteGMXR staircase pattern from bottom.
ReplyDeleteTen points away from 13000 and they can't find the bids to take it over? Where are the shorts when you need 'em?
ReplyDeleteMDR, long at 13.92, hopefully putting this one away for the ride.
ReplyDeleteFIO is jumping, aapl rumour, where you picking that up TOF?
All right, raised my buy limit to $90.50 on SGG and purchased 50 shares. Now I have some skin in the game...
ReplyDeleteLooking at the 5H chart of $USD futures,
ReplyDeletehttp://www.forexpros.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-advanced-chart
I am getting a feeling that they will soon break below the recent low at $78.50, and the market will really zoom up...
Should have bought many more puts on VXX during the recent spike to $28...
ReplyDelete"If i crawled into your sleeping bag late at night would you tell anyone?"
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKPoHgKcqag
Awesome response! It's gettin' hot in here....
DeleteThought you guys might find this interesting:
ReplyDelete" Citi Mobile now includes Mobile
Check Deposit."
Dear Craig,
"Download the Citi Mobile app to experience check depositing that’s as easy as snapping a picture. With Mobile Check Deposit, you can use your iPhone®, iPod touch® or Android™ device to deposit checks, wherever you are."
"You can also check your account balance, view recent activity, and make payments and Popmoney® transfers, all without visiting a branch."
"To get started, download the Citi Mobile app and sign on using your Citibank® Online User ID and Password. Then click on the Services menu, followed by Make a Deposit. Be sure to have your debit card handy (you will need it for enrollment)."
Today's pick, JIVE triggered.
ReplyDeleteSomeone in the chart show brought up CBK.
The bios look better. IBB/BBH.
Major whackage on UUP, someone wants us higher.
I'm game for that.
VIX 8 month closing low. At lower bb.
ReplyDeletet3d - i saw that on my AMTD mobile app (about FIO). the sec needs to regulate this shit better man
ReplyDeleteThanks TOF, slammin DECK ah on earnings -9.5%
ReplyDeletedeck Earnings look pretty good. Minor margin contraction. Still getting knocked around though. Down 11 %
ReplyDeleteDECK guidance is bad because of sheep skin cost. Time to buy sheep. Which company sells sheep?
DeleteOh, I thought that was you and CP buying up all the sheep skin for your times on Brokeback Mountain.
DeleteBear you still have WLL, its rippin.
closed the WLL HLF and Joy today. King for a week. still have 3 VXX puts at 23 strike. Actually thinking of shorting oil for a trade. If I see any strength in SCO. Like STMP, ETH, LDK long and short TIF. all on stop orders.
DeleteDECK could be just another pullback to support at $80.
ReplyDeleteDECK- My kids wear the knock off's. So far their pretty cool about that stuff. They always ask how much stuff costs and what whatever is cheaper...Now, when it comes to soccer stuff...Well, not so much :)..But hey, you score 7 goals in a game down 2 players you get the shoes you want :)
ReplyDeleteFolks, check out the "Paper Money" section of
ReplyDeletehttp://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/2012/02/chuckles.html
Pretty interesting...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/obama-drilling-alone-not-energy-193712504.html;_ylt=AhaWL2o3MpgZcMLidThVwWmiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTNyb3FoNzcxBG1pdANGUCBUb3AgU3RvcnkgTGVmdARwa2cDODlhMGFhMGEtMzZlZi0zNWFhLTllYjUtYTEzZGZiMjM1NzBiBHBvcwMxBHNlYwN0b3Bfc3RvcnkEdmVyAzU4ZTM5ZWEwLTVlNWMtMTFlMS1iZmJiLTU2N2RiNTNlOTBmNA--;_ylg=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3
ReplyDeleteAlt energy is here to stay.
I'm not a huge fan of chart patterns but it kind of looks like TAN is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern.
ReplyDeleteI don't know, TOF... I think if it breaks below $29, then it would be safer to step back and re-enter if it bounces back up above $30...
DeleteDavid - It looks like TAN still is in the middle of a new uptrend as long as it holds above the lows from a few weeks ago. This could just be noise.
DeleteAIG also looks like an IHS on the weekly chart.
ReplyDeleteSame with C
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeletePAL - Another nice day of gains there, hope sharkie made some coin...
ReplyDelete