Thursday, February 23, 2012
2/23/12 Every time I look in the mirror
All these lines on my charts getting clearer
The past is gone
It went by, like dusk to dawn
Isn't that the way
Everybody's got their dues in life to pay
Yeah, I know nobody knows
where it comes and where it goes
I know it's everybody's sin
You got to lose to know how to win
Half my life's
in books' written pages
Lived and learned from fools and
from sages
You know it's true
All the things come back to you
'09 is gone- get over it. It's time we moved on- the highs of '08 are around the next bend.
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Gap up Friday. We take no prisoners, and we allow no boarders.
ReplyDeletePAL - Another nice day of gains there, hope sharkie made some coin...
ReplyDeleteAnd the IH&S target seems to be $4.50
Remember 10000? Aside from a brief dip to a 9-handle a few trading sessions later, we never looked back.
ReplyDeleteI'll ask in July if you recall 13000.
ReplyDeleteIt's entirely possible 2012 goes down as the year the market outsmarted all of us, returning +30% without a single meaningful pullback.
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting that IWM, TNA and RSP (S&P equal weighted) are pretty much flat since Feb. 2, almost 3 weeks.
ReplyDeleteIt appears that the large cap indexes are continuing upwards due to the success of huge stocks like AAPL and IBM, but the broader market has been working off it's oversold condition, likely preparing for another move upwards.
I think the correction callers may be frustrated here as the oversold condition is being worked off behind the scenes.
But I Agree with 2nd, at this point, just stay long.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/skrainka-sees-economy-shifting-to-expansion-mode-2012-02-23
ReplyDeleteBB- I'm surprised you have stayed away from MITK this whole time. Why?
ReplyDeleteNow that the extended hours session is closed, they can really start to ramp things up.
ReplyDeleteI agree that the overbought condition is being worked off behind the scenes. In more ways than one. IMO, every one of the intraday selloffs has transferred stocks from weak hands to fund portfolios.
ReplyDeleteSmart $ bullish % increased from 33 to 38% in 1 day. Quite a jump. A jump of this magnitude ordinarily happens after an enormous drop.
ReplyDeleteWhere do you find that kind of info, jesse?
ReplyDeleteST:
Delete"strategists lowered their recommended allocation to 57% of a portfolio, from over 60% a few weeks earlier.
That allocation is the lowest since December 2009 when the S&P 500 was trading at 1105, and other than the bear-to-bull market transition period from December 2008 through December 2009, it's the lowest since 1998.
There isn't always a clear pattern to when and how much strategists alter their equity allocation recommendations. Sometimes they ramp up exposure as stocks decline, other times as they rally.
What is striking about the current recommendation is how similar it is to late 2010.
At that point, stocks were recovering from the summer correction. As they were challenging their previous highs, strategists really started backing off equities.
Same thing this time. They recommended a steady hand during the correction late last year, now they're pulling back as stocks challenge their previous highs.
This is a big "if", but if stocks follow through on that pattern, then a breakout to new highs will be successful...at least for awhile"
Hang Seng traders just pulled the same chain on opening traders.
ReplyDeleteTele, moringstar analyst has a $75 dollar price target on WLL. With any more Iran BS WLL might get there real quick. I want back in! I think the Brent and WTI spread has to be making the crack real favorable for WNR and Tesaro. Wish I thought of that a couple weaks ago.
ReplyDeleteDECK - Ouchie, ran for the exit in AH?!?
ReplyDeleteCROX also. The shoe game is a bitch!!
DeleteThe reasons I wouldn't invest in MITK are:
ReplyDelete1. Valuation - 2013 projected P/E is 37, so a lot of growth is discounted in the current price and I really have no idea if it is realistic. I like having better valuation support for stocks.
2. I don't like investing in declining industries - not that cheques are dying, but I believe their usage will almost certainly fall off over the next few years as people move towards more electronic payment methods. If investors start seeing cheques as declining, it'll be hard to get a good valuation on MITK. (think about the work TOF did on CSTR).
BB- You don't give any value to the other areas MITK is going into? Bill pay/Insurance/Credit card reloads/ etc.?
DeleteAIJ appears to be the Japanese version of MF Global (what kind of name is MF Global?).
ReplyDeletehttp://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/freetop.aspx
Wow - could be a lot worse even. They plan to probe 263 investment firms. Wonder why they feel the need to go after so many?
DeleteSee the latest report re mutual fund flows:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ici.org/research/stats/flows/flows_02_22_12
People see the inflows to equities as being significant and I guess it is in that it is the first time in 9 months, but bond inflows are still hugely exceeding equity inflows.
Given the valuation of advantage of equities over bonds (I read it hit another long term high this week), I don't see how this bull run can be close to being over.
I'm beat, goodnight guys, needin' a break!
ReplyDeleteCiao bird beak.
DeleteI like the way we closed today. We opened a bit weak, sold off and then reversed and closed strong.
ReplyDeleteSee the bar circled in this chart. Even the solars I was watching (since I was getting whacked while watching) we being bought as fast as they were sold. I think weak hands were getting the treatment.
http://screencast.com/t/mHPu2VnvI
Then there is the Q's: http://screencast.com/t/jL4WV5yT Same story.
I'll spare you the BC conspiracy theory, but it sure looks like someone is trying to panic the crowd and then buy lower. We are very close to multi-year highs on the P's and the Quack and the Russell still has some room to run before it joins the party.
Nearly all sectors are strong like the markets but the P's and QQQ's making new highs suggests large cap and tech are leading.
Agree. Today's action was the best in about a week.
Deletefrom Jesse's Cafe:
ReplyDeleteAs you may recall I said early this year that the markets had the flavor of a 'market operation' on the tape, a conscious effort to inflate asset prices. If you look at some of the key market charts, the price action has pretty much been a thrown rope, never violating the 15 Day Moving Average.
It has been a while since I have seen a Williams%R pegged to the topside like this with barely a flutter, especially considering all the hijinks going on in Europe. Must be an 'inspiring confidence' sort of thing.
If you want to know why the Fed and Treasury keep the TBTF around, this may be the reason: to implement their global financial policy decisions. How long they can keep it up is another matter. But they are not likely to run out of money, and much of the buying and selling in these equity markets is artificial, the quick action of computers shaving off nickels in a well-tempered instrument.
It will probably take some incident to break this uptrend, so wait for it.
Think about this. If we make new highs in the P's we will have the two large indices above resistance (would then be support) and the big fundies sitting out would have to, as Landry says, "Fish or cut bait". That would force money into the market and drive them higher before a correction to test support.
DeleteWe do have some possible incidents that could materialize, mainly some military action with Iran, some European fiscal matter or a way outside chance of a natural disaster or terrorist attack of some kind. Iran and Europe seem to have better odds.
New post.
ReplyDelete