Saturday, February 25, 2012
2/25/12 Any day now
They say everything can be replaced
Yet every distance is not near
So I remember every face
Of every man who put me here
I see my light come shining
From the west unto the east
Any day now, any day now
I shall be released
SPX 1500 only appears to be not near. The remaining +10% gap is formidable only from a psychological perspective. Which goes a long way towards explaining what both Helene Meisler and Kevin Marder (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-correction-may-be-underway-2012-02-24) sense unfolding against the backdrop of higher indices- a stealth below-the-surface correction.
Funds are moving money into the market, mainly large-cap value plays IMO. This would effectively support the headline DJIA/NDQ/SPX numbers, while camouflaging (healthy) consolidation in stocks that fly under the radar.
Zoom out on a chart of the SPX. It's corrected to the 700-800 range twice in the past ten years- the summer of '02 and the spring of -09. We'll never see those numbers again, bro. The SPX has also hit 1500 twice in the past twelve years. I think we surpass 1500 soon enough. It may require a mental adjustment on the part of investors, but once they 'get it,' we're on our way.
Great Vid 2nd! No one plays a prettier guitar then Garcia. I miss him.
ReplyDelete2nd- You run into Newt?
ReplyDelete'G20 inches toward $2 trillion in rescue funds'
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/euro-zone-deal-firewall-awaits-001447349.html
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Germany is easing its opposition to a bigger European bailout fund, officials said, smoothing the way for the world's leading economies to secure nearly $2 trillion in firepower to prevent further fallout from the euro-zone's sovereign debt crisis.
Finance leaders from the Group of 20, meeting in Mexico City this weekend, are trying to build up massive international resources by the end of April to convince financial markets they can prevent the euro-zone's deep problems from inflicting more damage on a still-fragile world recovery.
It would mark their boldest efforts since 2008 when the G20 mustered $1 trillion to rescue the world economy from the credit crisis, which blew up in the United States and caused the worst recession since the 1930s.
They are demanding that Europe build up its war chest first and then other G20 countries would contribute extra money to the International Monetary Fund. As Europe's richest economy, Germany's support for a larger European fund is critical.
A senior G20 official said Berlin was prepared to discuss boosting the firewall in March, but it saw no reason to increase the bailout fund for now because the situation in financial markets has been improving.
Mark- I have no interest in politics, unless it involves repaving my street.
ReplyDeleteA couple of quotes from Bruce Krasting today:
ReplyDelete"Crude prices in Louisiana hit their highest in a year on Friday. If this level is sustained (or heaven forbid increases), the price of fuel in the red states will go up by 50 cents in the next few weeks. Forget about $4, start worrying about $5.
California and NY will be hit the hardest. These two states represent 21% of GDP. It will be a big burden for the NY economy. For California, it could be a crushing blow. The national economy cannot expand without California growing. Cali is a very big portion of the pie."
The market may not like such a development...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/buffett-adds-bullish-us-economic-204712945.html
ReplyDelete(Reuters) - Anyone looking for more evidence of a strengthening U.S. economic recovery need only consider conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N), where businesses ranging from railroads and electric utilities to furniture and candy stores are racking up record profits.
Even though Berkshire's Warren Buffett says with emphasis that the housing market is still in a depression, he was as upbeat as ever this weekend on the rest of the dozens of businesses he owns.
"Though housing-related businesses remain in the emergency room, most other businesses have left the hospital with their health fully restored," Buffett said on Saturday in his closely watched annual letter to shareholders.
Berkshire's five largest non-insurance businesses, all of them industrial in some way, posted record profits last year and should do the same this year, he said, surpassing $10 billion in combined earnings.
That being the case, Berkshire broke its own records for capital spending in 2011 by a wide margin and expects to do so again in 2012 - almost all of it domestically, even with the company's global footprint.
"About 95 percent of these outlays were made in the U.S., a fact that may surprise those who believe our country lacks investment opportunities. We welcome projects abroad, but expect the overwhelming majority of Berkshire's future capital commitments to be in America."
There are other big investments on tap, too. Buffett said his home-furnishings retailer, Nebraska Furniture Mart, bought a 433-acre (175-hectare) parcel north of Dallas and will construct what it expects to be the highest volume store of its kind anywhere. He also forecast billions of dollars in spending on solar and wind energy projects.
Folks, here is THE easiest way to make money right now: start scaling into June VXX puts. With ^VIX closing at 17.5 on Friday, the March futures closed at 21.20 and April futures closed at $24.30:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cboe.com/DelayedQuote/DQBeta.aspx (look at the bottom of the page)
That is a HUGE contango, that will eat up VXX alive in the next couple of months. I already have 2 contracts of June $29 puts and 3 contracts of June $28 puts I bought during the recent VXX spike to $28. If we get another spike up to that level, I'll buy 5 or maybe 10 more contracts...
David- I would agree. My take here on volatility is that the direction will be counter-intuitive- ie, the VIX moves lower and REMAINS lower for an extended period of time. All we need to do is scan the headlines- there's a ton of 'feel good' news right now: the G20 vibes + Buffett pronouncements I posted above, the return to highs not seen since May 2008, an expected shift out of bonds and into equities, the push for economic stimulus programs as we head into elections. All of this represents a rising tide of good will that should drown bearish sentiment for good- THEN we start to think about taking positions off the table.
ReplyDeleteThe great thing about VXX puts is that with the current HUGE contango on VIX futures, we don't even need for VIX to move down from here. All we need is for things to stay as they are and VXX will be eaten up by contango. In fact, the only thing that will kill this trade is the start of a new bear market (or a long multi-month correction phase), during which volatility will spike above 20 and stay above 20 for many months. However, since we just had one in 2H2011, I think the probability of another one starting over the next couple of months is very low.
DeleteInterestingly, VXX will decay the most during uncertain times as we are having now, when VIX futures 2-3 months out are very high because of things that can possibly go wrong. When complacency will set in and VIX futures two months out will be at 17-18 (like we had in the Spring of 2010), then contango will become minimal and I'll close my puts, because such complacency will also imply a higher chance of a long correction starting -- the investor mood pendulum always swings...
Jeremy Grantham has just published his quarterly letter -- go get it while it lasts! :) His letters are always a pleasure to read...
ReplyDeletePATIENCE seems to be the key idea that Grantham wants to teach individual investors in that letter. He gives 10 rules for investing, and here are 3 of them:
ReplyDelete******
4. Be patient and focus on the long term
“Wait for the good cards,” he says. When you find something to buy, you don’t have to act immediately. Wait for it to hit your price range. As Grantham explains, “this will be your margin of safety.”
Now comes the hard part: handling the pain of investment losses. But often the suffering is worth it. As Grantham notes, “individual stocks usually recover, entire markets always do. … Outlast the bad news.”
5. Recognize your advantages over the professionals
Patience is one of the key advantages individuals have over traders and money managers. Yet many people squander that edge, reacting to day-to-day events and chasing the latest hot stock or sector. “The individual is far better positioned to wait patiently for the right pitch while paying no regard to what others are doing.”
Such a luxury is “almost impossible” for professionals, Grantham says. Wall Street, he adds, worries about jobs, careers, bonuses and the like, needing to look busy (read: costly, frequent trading) to earn their keep.
7. On rare occasions, try hard to be brave
Professional investors often spot bargains, but (and this is key) they can’t and don’t always act on it.
That’s because the price of being wrong, even for a few months, is just too high, according to Grantham. A manager who lags his or her peers for a couple of quarters will start to get probing questions from disgruntled clients. If those clients pull their money, the manager’s bosses will get upset. If they get upset, they may decide that someone else is better for the job.
Individuals don’t have that worry. So if you find an investment that looks cheap, even if it’s likely to be out of favor for a while, trust your research. Says Grantham: “If the numbers tell you it’s a real outlier of a mispriced market, grit your teeth and go for it.”
****
Seems Grantham went to BBs school of investing.Grantham should pay him some royalties.
Deleteit also sounds like he's invested in solars and dry bulk shippers
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHow much debt is too much debt, and how much of that debt can Greece's creditors recover from the bankruptcy?
ReplyDeleteWell, assuming Greece owns around $6.3T of gold:
"Greece has around 111.6 tons of gold, worth roughly $6.3 trillion. But other piigs nations (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) have much more: Among them they have 3,234 tons—just less than Germany, owner of the world’s second largest gold reserve."
Wouldn't that place the collective value of Europe's gold (~6,400 Tons) right at about $361T?
I wonder how much debt exists over there, it must be considerably more than the value of gold reserves, considering the de-emphasis and what comes across as general disdain concerning the value of mere rocks:
"The forerunner of today’s European Central Bank, the European Monetary Institute (emi), once carried almost $27 billion in gold reserves. In 1998, the emi was replaced by the European Central Bank (ecb). No European Monetary Union financial data was published that year, while Europe’s elites “rebalanced” the financial system. When financial records resumed publication in 1999, $20 billion in gold had “gone missing” from EU coffers."
The current price must be too high, considering everyone chooses to default and give their gold away.
If that is accurate, why wouldn't Greece just sell off 5% of their gold and pay off their debts?
DeleteGood read from Grantham. So, so many people make the mistakes he discusses.
ReplyDeleteLiked his quote "Now all you have to do is withstand the pain as the very good investment becomes exceptional." as this was what made 2008 / 2009 so hard. You knew you were buying good stocks at great prices, but they just kept going down (getting better in Buffet terminology), but they did turn out to be good buys in the end.
The other advantage the individual investor has is the ability to invest in small stocks that guys like Grantham can't even consider. Some of these can do nothing for a long time, but we can be patient and they generally will do better in the long run.
"If that is accurate, why wouldn't Greece just sell off 5% of their gold and pay off their debts?"
ReplyDeleteWe already know the internet is a beautiful means of spreading misinformation.
I'm not sure if in fact the information above is accurate, it sure seems like it if were then selling just 5% should solve the problem and bankruptcy shouldn't even be on the table?
Hmm, and California also has some debt to contend with, many news reports have also suggested California is bankrupt.
So maybe California also has an 111 Ton stash of gold, from which they can also sell some small percentage?
Obviously, gold is way over-valued as an asset class...
Quiet open to the futes. Everyone have a good weekend? Nice here for bike rides/soccer/and the end to the BBall season...and Sat Marg's on the market!!
ReplyDeleteOkay, that was obviously a math error on someone's part, because assuming Greece does have 111 tons and at today's price, 1 ton is valued at $56.977M, then Greece owns $6.3B of gold, not 6.3T
ReplyDeleteAnd Germany's 3200 tons would be worth $182.326B, and all of Europe's gold would have a value of roughly twice that, or $364.653B
This is considerably less, so maybe gold isn't quite as over-valued as the earlier calculations indicated. Perhaps one day, but not quite yet...
All of Gratham's ten rules are good. Here are my favorite two( my bias),
ReplyDelete2. “Neither a lender nor a borrower be.” If you borrow to invest, it will interfere with your survivability. Unleveraged portfolios cannot be stopped out, leveraged portfolios can. Leverage reduces the investor’s critical asset: patience.(To digress, excessive borrowing has turned out to be an even bigger curse than Polonius could have known. It encourages financial aggressiveness, recklessness, and greed. It increases your returns over and over until, suddenly, it ruins you. For individuals, it allows you to have today what you really can’t afford until tomorrow. It has proven to be so seductive that individuals en masse have shown themselves incapable of resisting it, as
if it were a drug. Governments also, from the Middle Ages onwards and especially now, it seems, have proven themselves equally incapable of resistance. Any sane society must recognize the lure of debt and pass laws accordingly. Interest payments must absolutely not be tax deductible or preferred in any way. Governments must apparently be treated like Polonius’s children and given limits. By law, cumulative government debt should be given a sensible limit of, say, 50% of GDP, with current transgressions given 10 or 20 years to be corrected.) But, back to investing …
3. Don’t put all of your treasure in one boat. This is about as obvious as any investment advice could be. It was learned by merchants literally thousands of years ago. Several different investments, the more the merrier, will give your portfolio resilience, the ability to withstand shocks. Clearly, the more investments you have and the more different they are, the more likely you are to survive those critical periods when your big bets move against you.
They tossed nonbelievers over the bow at the open in Asia.
ReplyDeleteDavid- Have you looked into GAZ?
ReplyDelete"WTF HEADLINE OF THE DAY: Poll: Santorum comes from behind in Alabama three-way."
ReplyDeleteSantorum will happen on a three way from behind.
DeleteNot everyone is bullish. The fly is long VXX:
ReplyDelete"Before I get to that, I need to address my burgeoning VXX position. As you know, I’ve been rubbing that shit all over my chest, boasting about its medicinal values whilst punching people in the face with handfuls of seaweed. And, as an aside, I still have an open TZA position.
What I need to happen is this, listen or read this poem very carefully, small pleb:
The markets get fucking crushed, like an accordion being operated by a deranged, sex-mad, cocaine addled Italian.
Things just fall apart quickly, allowing “The Fly” to laugh mightily in bold tones, as you weep in cold, dark showers.
Surprise!, as your positions get blown out by an aggressive margin clerk with expediency, leaving your account in shambles and your personality in rocks and dust.
I step in, with sharp strokes, buying up shit that no one wants, because it is my birth-right to do so.
Surprise! yet again, as I mud-stomp your grave, dancing on it because it’s fun. The world is my sandbox and I have spikes under my shoes."
Wait..so he's short right?
DeleteNo long VXX I think. "I need to address my burgeoning VXX position. As you know, I’ve been rubbing that shit all over my chest."
Deletei'm just kidding bro. that "shit all over my chest" line kinda gave it away
DeleteYou got me!
DeleteWho is "the Fly" and why is he worth listening to?
DeleteBB - I have no idea. But it sounds like he's an emotional trader.
Delete"David- Have you looked into GAZ?"
ReplyDeleteNo -- why do you think it can be of interest?
I'm just wondering if Natty might be worth a little seasonal interest here.
DeleteAdded some NLS at $2.64 avg. They have earnings coming up in about a week or two. I like how the stock has held in here despite a big move up and I also really like the turnaround story in case you didn't know that already.
ReplyDeleteThe momo stocks of 2012 may have bottomed out here is my best guess. DANG and NM look good.
ReplyDeleteWhy didn't we get back in PEIX again? Series of higher lows on the daily chart was never broken.
All right boys. Opened 3 positions in WFR @ 4.12.
ReplyDeletewow. the solars took a moon shot higher off the lows...except WFR of course.
ReplyDeletemark - you watching TZOO? Looks like $25 is a good buy point.
ReplyDeleteMMYT getting a nice bounce off an upgrade by MS. I'd love to see that in the teens again. Best internet growth story out there.
Problem is the valuation is still too high
DeleteTZOO- Yep, even before you said anything.
DeleteThis morning, I'm not as bullish as I was over the weekend.
ReplyDeleteCut exposure in BAC by 2/3, with a 'mental stop' at 7.78, which was my basis. In other words, unwilling to take a loss on the 2/3- I'll give the other 1/3 a little more room.
Closed AMAT at a significant loss- one of the worst trades of the year. Overall hit -0.3% of the port.
Closed RENN @ 5.18 (basis 5.5x).
Catch you cats in a few.
ReplyDeleteI realize Landry views this morning's drop as a buying opportunity.
ReplyDeletejeez maybe i'm missing something here with WFR? only solar stock on my watch list down.
ReplyDeletePEIX - Another 18%.....
ReplyDeleteI guess everyone was expecting a sell off first thing this morning, and they got it. Bet they weren't expecting a reversal, though.
ReplyDeleteFaked me out, too.
CP- I like the reversal. And of course, it's just more 'proof of concept' for Landry's trading style.
ReplyDeleteGoing into LTRO here, and silver is testing the upper trend line from last year's April high.
ReplyDeleteLooks like TPTB felt compelled to smash oil today, wonder when the PM smashing comes?
Next will be another emergency dip into the strategic oil reserves, no doubt.
This blatant manipulation is all quite sickening, good thing they've got dark pools so we can't see what's going on, and the ability to create shares out of thin air, otherwise markets would take over and they wouldn't have a pot to pee in...
Picked up QQQ puts. AAPL $525
ReplyDeleteInteresting Blog for Individual investor:
ReplyDeleteLast year while reading 'Seeking Alpha' I stumbled upon an author 'Alan Brochstein' and enjoyed reading some of his articles. It turns out that Alan runs a service for individual investor called 'Invest by Model' where he uses a portfolio of stock and/or stocks and bonds to try to beat the appropriate index. He started in 2008 and has done very well. He tries to identify opportunities with smaller names, big players don't touch. A couple month after I joined 'Invest by Model' he opened another service called "My Own Analyst". The service targets more active investors and publishes ideas and stock market commentary on a daily basis in a blog style. I tried for a month and it worked very well for me. I have been with a service for a year now and as you know if was a difficult year to stay invested. Using his ideas I made several times what I invested in his service. Over the next couple days he runs a marketing campaign and opened his private blog to public for a couple days. The link describing the service is: http://ab.typepad.com/my_own_analyst/2011/02/update-on-private-blog.html and the blog itself is http://ab.typepad.com/my_own_analyst/. I will be happy to answer any questions about the service.
Igor- Is the above you or did you paste that?
ReplyDeleteGreece - With 14.3B Billion euros debt due March 20th, wonder if they can swing it?
ReplyDeleteNo worry, plenty of time to sign up for these services following the ECU LTRO..... ;)
ReplyDeleteRight now, I'm busy looking over the WIR
What is LTRO?
ReplyDeleteMark,
ReplyDeleteAbove is me -). I am impressed you felt it sounds professional enough to be a marketing collateral.
"What is LTRO?"
ReplyDeleteLTRO is what has been driving this market up since mid-December.
After seeing a series of lower highs and lower lows on TLT since mid-December, I've been waiting patiently for a good entry into TLT puts. I think today is such a day, as TLT is touching the descending line connecting the lower highs. Just bought 5 contracts of May $120 puts for $5 each.
ReplyDeleteI wanted to pull the trigger when TLT broke the support at $116, but somehow the jigsaw pattern of TLT gave me a feeling that I should wait for a rebound before buying puts on TLT...
DeleteThe only two securities that are green on my watch list today are TLT and MGIC. :)
ReplyDeleteWow, that WIR was just chocked full of great info!
ReplyDeleteBy far the best one concerning PM's I've seen all year.... LOL! ;)
Are you serious, CP? Do you suggest that those with interest in PMs should actually read it?
Delete^VIX is up 3% today while VXX is down 1% -- that's "contango at work." I think it is a really good idea to buy some June in-the-money puts on VXX now and double/triple the position if ^VIX rises above 20 in the next month...
ReplyDeleteBAC: Closed the last 1/3 @ 7.95. I made a few bucks on the position, and that's good enough for now.
ReplyDeleteLast week I spoke with my friend that used to work for Bank of America (now works for a regional firm) in the mortgage refinancing/servicing department. He was the one that said rates would go lower about a year or year and a half ago, despite them being really low already. Anyway, he said that business is doing really well. He said new contracts and refinancings are "on fire". He said some of it is due to the seasonal aspect of the biz but that it's just much stronger than it's been in a while. He then told me that the business is no longer nearly as competitive as it used to be because there are many more restrictions in place to prevent the kind of nonsense that was going on 7 years ago.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I was really surprised to hear this and it made me think more about how we should be buying a home.
A quote from Igor's analyst:
ReplyDelete"So, maybe I sound a bit scatter-brained on this, but I am not ruling out a surge here before the pullback. We aren't so overbought that it can't extend another 5% or so. Then, everyone looking to buy the dip will end up paying today's price or even more."
This sounds very much like what 2nd_ave wrote in the past few days. We have our own "analyst" in-house. :)
That's how his weekend market update starts:
Delete"Majority of stocks above 10dma, S&P 500 moderately overbought - it's like a broken record. How long can this go on, and what's next?
A long time, and who knows! I think the conditions remain ripe for a rally, but a pullback could come out of the blue. They usually do after a rally like this, so prepare for it, at least emotionally. I can tell you this - the bid underneath the market is absolutely massive now, so I wouldn't worry too much about a correction exceeding 5%. More likely it would be 2.5% - something that would eat into the YTD gains but not by too much."
TOF, FWIW, if I were your age I would absolutely be buying right now. Your max downside here is -20% with maybe a 10% probablity of that. Over a 24 year period here we have averaged 11.6K gain per year in price appreciation.
ReplyDeleteI just do not think you should expect alot of fast appreciation going forward for 5-10 years, but that you will be satisfied that you bought a home during this period 20 years down the road.
My wife's bother who lives in LA says that prices are below replacement costs.
Nice try David..But I still don't get it.
ReplyDeleteLTRO:
Deletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/ecbs-ltro-may-carry-key-to-risk-rally-2012-02-27?link=MW_latest_news
Today might be a good day for a low-risk entry into UNG, with a stop just below the December/January lows being not to far away...
ReplyDelete"Do you suggest that those with interest in PMs should actually read it?"
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely not, under normal circumstances! But we're getting down to the wire here with a potential breakout in PM's(LOL!), and thus it might be helpful to take a freekin' vacation at this critical junction as opposed to exposing your last-remaining chunk of ass-meat, considering the literal short-freak gang-raping recently experienced by nearly the entire mining complex.
TOF- BUY! BUY! BUY!!!!
ReplyDeleteA quote from the link I posted above:
ReplyDelete"Banks probably covered their most urgent needs with December’s LTRO and will use the second one to cover further refinancing needs or to fund other opportunities, including fresh lending or financial investments, Cazzulani said, in a note."
So this week's LTRO might be the catalyst that moves S&P above 1400...
Just bought 10 contracts of April $20 calls on UNG at $1.75. Will probably close them if UNG drops below $20.
ReplyDeleteMark - Would you please stop f'in with our heads!?!?!? ;)
ReplyDeleteLTRO is basically a near proxy for Bernanke's QE antics, mixed with a spritz of Paulson's bazooka blaster, and a twist or two of spiced lemon margin-hikes and MF Global ripoffs to make it nice. I don't suppose they briefly mentioned any of this on bubblehead TV?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ecbs-ltro-may-carry-key-to-risk-rally-2012-02-27?reflink=MW_news_stmp
Well, you can be damn certain I'll be short oil if/when it makes it to the $130's, to my detriment of course.
ReplyDeleteDudes that LDK chart looks awesome.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1330376400000&chddm=48875&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NYSE:LDK&ntsp=0&fct=big
I think its safe to say that one has bottomed out and is in a new uptrend.
Look at the MGIC chart, folks. It looks ripe for another leg up...
ReplyDeleteMUX - Interesting short float (22%?)
ReplyDeleteCP said, "Looks like TPTB felt compelled to smash oil today, wonder when the PM smashing comes?"
ReplyDeleteThat's a realy good point. Looking at a monthly gold bullion chart is unreal, it looks like it has a slope of 60 degrees. I think the size of the LTRO will determine if gold pushes higher here which makes it a tough call to be long or flat.
TOF- WFR might be running into a little EOM dumping here also.
ReplyDeleteWFR 9 of 11 days down and a block trade of 250K at 4.20 and 44.2K at 4.08. This does seem extreme but is definitely indicative of institutional sellers.
ReplyDeleteMark / T3 - if the institutions bail out and we make a higher low then WFR will have far less selling pressure on it going forward. Bring it on! I have 25% cash and am willing to lay down the rest at $3.7 if need be. This is one of those David AUMN moments for me. Except we have a clear stop out price at $3.5 if it gets there.
ReplyDeletei.e.,. we have a reference point to trade against.
DeleteMark - I actually sense an EOD spike coming one of these days in WFR. Followed by a gap higher. Maybe something like a move to the 50 DMA at the end of the day and then a gap to over $4.8 the next day. When the tide turns in this one they won't allow for an easy entry.
ReplyDeleteDid TD Ameritrade ever honor your stop?
Deletethey gave me an option and i chose to go with the cash bonus plus free trades for 3 months. lucky me.
Deletethis is seriously one of the shittiest stocks i've traded in a while. i haven't had something go straight down on me like this since i bought WNC last summer and WATG the summer before. someone is definitely bailing at any cost.
DeleteOn the flip side I did see a 200k sh buy go in on WFR recently.
DeleteSVM - Exited half my position on failure of silver to regain $36 and SVM to confirm an uptrend.
ReplyDeleteI have to draw the line somewhere, may as well be right here right now!