Telestar3dFeb 23, 2012 08:00 PM from Jesse's Cafe:
As you may recall I said early this year that the markets had the flavor of a 'market operation' on the tape, a conscious effort to inflate asset prices. If you look at some of the key market charts, the price action has pretty much been a thrown rope, never violating the 15 Day Moving Average.
It has been a while since I have seen a Williams%R pegged to the topside like this with barely a flutter, especially considering all the hijinks going on in Europe. Must be an 'inspiring confidence' sort of thing.
If you want to know why the Fed and Treasury keep the TBTF around, this may be the reason: to implement their global financial policy decisions. How long they can keep it up is another matter. But they are not likely to run out of money, and much of the buying and selling in these equity markets is artificial, the quick action of computers shaving off nickels in a well-tempered instrument.
It will probably take some incident to break this uptrend, so wait for it.
Okay, new post cut and paste: Think about this. If we make new highs in the P's we will have the two large indices above resistance (would then be support) and the big fundies sitting out would have to, as Landry says, "Fish or cut bait". That would force money into the market and drive them higher before a correction to test support.
We do have some possible incidents that could materialize, mainly some military action with Iran, some European fiscal matter or a way outside chance of a natural disaster or terrorist attack of some kind. Iran and Europe seem to have better odds.
A lot of the action I'm seeing is on technical chart set ups, not computers. And not your "classical" TA most people think of like support/resistance/head and shoulders and what you might read about in O'Neil's books, but much simpler pullback/acceleration patterns that aren't really level or price generated. This leads me to not think they are computer generated but the results of people, especially because they have been running a lot more than "shaving nickels". The solar corrections weren't computer generated. People either pulled bids or outright sold on the German news. Regardless, most of those stocks still finished off their worst levels and I was watching them catch bids or I would have been one of those sellers. It's certainly possible if not outright true that liquidity can do a lot but I think that is the extent of it. I think they know what Landry knows, get the indices all above resistance and it will drive itself higher and have support at key levels. It's always hard to drive markets past resistance as previous buyers sell at break even. So I expect it to take some effort.
When did we start posting commie pinko youtubes on the blog? This guy is bitching because we are in a bull market and his bear argument is crap? And this is GRIM? This guy is whack.
I don't care. He goes through all these whacky gyrations and technical BS to come to the conclsuion the market can do what it wants? I could save him hours of bullshit, just draw an arrow. It points to the upper right on all the indices and sectors except the dollar.
we have money out the yingyang in Europe and the States and gold and oil heading higher, a sure sign of liquidity and "it's really grim" the markets are going higher?
A reversal in gold will take a corresponding run in $USD and a weaker Euro. Surely this can happen at any time but since when do traders fight the tape?
My question would be what the charts looked like before "the reversal in gold". Gold doesn't just move in a vaccuum. BTW, Landry was calling that reversal/correction in gold for weeks, it was obvious. As usual he included his standard caveat for gold "it can have nine lives". So we didn't short it and look what happened. It had nine lives and the $USD call failed.
This is a surprise with central banks in charge? Even BC called that right during the summer at the lows. This youtube taught me a lot! DO NOT FIGHT THE TAPE.
"It appears that the large cap indexes are continuing upwards due to the success of huge stocks like AAPL and IBM, but the broader market has been working off it's oversold condition, likely preparing for another move upwards."
BB, a narrowing leadership in the past has almost always resulted in market pullbacks. So I wouldn't use this as a bullish argument.
The fact that most "luminaries" agree that the current rally is here to stay, surprisingly, does not mean that the rally is over. The rally will give way to a noticeable pullback when we run out of buyers. Since many mutual/pension funds have a much smaller equity exposure than usual, it will take them at least a few months to bump it up according to the recommendation of "luminaries", and only THEN we might temporarily run out of buyers. But not now. So I expect a repetition of Fall 2010, when everyone was saying QE2 will result in a large rally and the crowd was right for 6 months, until EVERYONE and his brother finally was fully invested into equities...
I agree we a narrowing market is not bullish, so we would need to see these broader market ETF's start to move up, but my point is more that perhaps the correction has already taken place and we are set for the next bull phase. I did some more digging on this and Helene Meisler over at realmoney actually makes the point that we approaching an oversold condition.
It is remarkable how similar the market charts from the current bull run are to the one coming out of the fall of 2010. If the pattern hods, we should expect a small correction / consolidation shortly, then a resumption of the uptrend. The thing that makes me question that though is how many people are expecting this at this time, meaning everyone is prepared for it, so it likely won't happen.
ANR earnings out. Horrible. The estimate has been coming down continuously for weeks- down to .29. They came out w/ a loss of .07. W/ all of the charges, they lost something like $3.50 per share.
Who knows. The earnings may be so bad that it marks a bottom. We'll see.
I'm still amazed at the ego of Tim Knight. I woke up this morning thinking how his video actually drives the bull market as everyone dumb enough to listen to him capitulates and covers their silly short positions. I want to know what he's short. If he has followers they will be short too and we should see a Tim Knight "Cramer" effect and squeezes in those stocks.
Notice what Big Dave sez: "Got Random Thoughts:
The indices dipped, found their low, then reversed to close well and in the plus column. That's exactly how a market in a bull move should act-weak in the morning and then strong in the afternoon.
This action has the Ps just shy of multi-year highs. Channeling Bela Karolyi (or actually more like Waterboy since I'm a Coonass): "You can do it! You can doooo it!"
And, if I it does do it, once again: I think new highs would beget new highs as top pickers would be squeezed out and investors on the sidelines would be forced to fish or cut bait.
I'm not seeing a many new setups so focus mostly on what you already have. Take partial profits as offered and honor your stops just in case.
Futures are flat to firm pre-market.
Best of luck with your trading today!"
Dave
"Top pickers" Yep, I think that about covers it. I think the market will pick the top, when I least expect it no doubt. The plan has to factor that in.
I don't know guys. A couple of weeks ago, there were literally hundreds of great setups. I looked for hours last night and couldn't find much of anything. Coals rolling over, solars dumping, DANG etc. In my book this is a great indication of the internals. We are going to sell off soon.
We simply have to in order for the next round of great setups to emerge.
for what it's worth, my generation hasn't ever experienced a true bull run. i graduated college in 2000, at the peak of the bull market. i have never traded a true bull market before so i don't know what it's really like. one day my generation will get one.
Coal bottom? I'm not good at calling tops or bottoms (except hers). But as you dudes noted sector is firm today off bad ANR news. I most likely trade ANR today. None of the coal stock charts jump out at me and say this is it, buy or be left behind more of a red/black bet.
From Feb. 22 Meisler column. She bases her short term oversold / overbought condition on the previous 10 days. Basically says the Russell 2000 was negative 8 of the previous 11 days, but RUT stayed flat, so individual stocks were going down, even if index wasn't.
Take a look at http://realmoney.thestreet.com/articles/02/22/2012/headed-toward-oversold-believe-it-or-not
This is a tough call TOF. You have support at 4.12 or there abouts and you are ten days into a decline. This is usually the time they flip around and head higher, but $30K is a F of a lot of cash to play with. Maybe a little discretion is in order, what's a few more $$$ since you are already down? Maybe you don't get stopped out. Seems like the point of maximum pain.
Those patterns aren't all that important at mid levels like this, but the big picture C&H and possible problems with Iran (looking more imminent)will drive oilers higher. This chart breaks out for a bit at around 49.40. Until then it still has some recent overhead.
I bet this, if you sell today you will set low tick, as to tommorrow ah Monday, who knows. The markets are so perverse at times. Index dull all the action is stock specific.
Bear I was going to say yesterday to look at AREX and that's where WLL is going still think that. BTW, nice cash registor ring yesterday!!!
Exited WFR -.01 and OSG -.10. I have absolutely zero conviction in this market. I know that the second I capitulate and go long, the market will crash.
Then I read this solar report from CSFB:
"At this point, US demand in 2Q12 is looking at the same level as it did in 3Q11 - which implies a decline of over 65% q/q is possible in 2Q12 for US panel shipments. If we see such large declines starting early April, factory loadings may start to slow in China from early March, which would suggest incremental purchasing of upstream silicon may start to slow some point in the next 2-3 weeks."
WFR - If you were to call the current formation an H&S with H this month, left shoulder last month and just recently fell through neckline, then $2.91 does look like H&S target.
Contra hour was much ado about nothing. Back to the coma. Maybe last hour will bring something. Have vxx in a box short above .40 long above .50. I'm leaning short no one fears this market.
jeezus h! i put in a request to transfer my 401k account over to an IRA at TD Ameritrade (where I have my personal account) and it looks like they put a freeze on all of my TD Ameritrade accounts until it gets transferred in. this is ridiculous.
WFR bottomed at 3.96. All stocks can go to zero but I doubt the book value is under 3.96.
The reason I aksed TOF what his basis was the other day is the biggest down bar I could find on WFR was .80 cents, which meant his stop should be below the normal noise of .80 cents, more like a buck. His basis is around 4.80 which means his stop needs to be below $4, but his mental stop is 4.25 close (I think). That is, if he can take the pain. It's one of those position size issues....I can't speak for him and I'm glad it isn't me who has to decide.
What makes more sense? To place stops within normal price movements and get stopped out all the time or to use wider stops and better position size to limit risk? I know it's a personal thing, but how many times have you been stopped out and then had a stock leave you and your stopped out loss in the dust? I think it makes more sense to factor in a stocks normal price fluctuations and use them to size the position to limit risk.
You have to expect that those who bought or were here in 20007 will look to get out at break even, which makes getting above 13,000 and holding it slow. See my post below. The point is to hold it here and wait for March 1 and the influx of more retirement and investment cash into long only funds and those seeking income who look at T's and scoff at losing $$$ to inflation and knowing fully well T's will sell off on rising yields and they will lose principal. Equities are the only place to go.
Sorry. $3.65 is the low. Mark is right it's .84 cents, I was eyeballing it.
T3D is right though, stops are a personal thing. My risk is 2% of my totl port if I'm stopped out (I'm an old dude, I don't have a lot of time to make up big losses), so my size would only be 2% of my port divided by the biggest down bar plus a margin of safety to keep me outside of normal noise. I wouldn't ever have a position of 50% of my port, so my stops can't really apply to that size position. I was looking at a daily chart over one year which is a good sample of recent trading.
FWIW, I think they are going to hold it near 13,000 until the end of Feb/beginning of March for the usual push of investment cash at the first of the month which will force everyone in. As it is from my little chart here I'm even with the S&P this month. I was killing it before this last week.
did you have a mechanical order. Did the person you first talk to note the price. I don't understand why they could not close it out when you were talking on the phone. Even if the account was frozen. I would stick to the price wfr was when you called. They will make good on it in my opinion your a great customer.
I think I will have the option of closing out WFR at $4.22 or $4.24 which is what my stop was or keeping the position on. They're still trying to get it resolved but if it rallies into the close it would be kind of funny.
I am tempted to stop myself out of TAN. If it were in a real uptrend, then yesterday's plunge should have washed out all weak hands and the buyers should have returned today. But they didn't... What do you, folks, think?
They are shutting down coal mines and capping nat gas wells. Sure oil is going up, but solar is power generation and the power generating fuels are cheap. Other than the shrinking govt subsides what would be the reason for a solar resurgence?
Let's try confusing the issue with facts...why will aapl sell off with record earnings?
If we insist on using some reasoning or logic then the logic is the dollar goes down and the energy sector goes up together. Oil goes higher, then so does coal, NG, electricity, solar and wind. The fossils are fungible resources priced in dollars, so more use worldwide is worldwide demand and higher prices in dollars. Why is SOL up 3% while all the others are down? Do we have to know or care? I don't care why. Look at WFR. Had a low of 4.12 and it closed at 4.18. Why? Who knows? Somebody was buying into the close. For me, it's only as simple as the chart says they are trending higher.
For example, who would have fundamentally thought National Bank of Greece was going higher? Logic would tell us it's done like dinner. It's up 3.45% today. There isn't any logic to markets sometimes.
PEIX -- what a POS! It first made a lower high in mid-Feb, I exited my position because the chart did not look bullish, and today it left everyone behind!
Now the TAN chart is not looking bullish to me -- if it were in a real uptrend, then it should not have returned back to its support after a breakout...
Screw it -- out of my 300 shares of TAN at $29.86. My cost basis was $31.50 (after accounting for the split). Still holding 20 July $2 calls on TAN (pre-split) at the average cost of $1.20...
RB - I had a stop at $4.24 online and I checked and it first said it was filled at $4.24 then I hit refresh and it said $4.22 then it said "error". That's when I found out what happened.
Out of curiosity fellas...if you look at a chart like WFR where it had what looked like a clear bottom a few months ago, a big run up, and then a pullback, how many times does it go on to make higher highs after a pullback as severe as WFR has had?
Well this ordeal is done. Sorry about bogging down the blog on this. I decided to not sell but I was able to get a $500 concession and 3 months of free trades. I'm gonna trade the shit out of these next 3 months. ha
Cliffs Natural Resources Inc., a mining and natural resources company, engages in the production of iron ore pellets, fines and lump ore, and metallurgical coal.
Chart somewhat interesting today with a pick-up in vol. later gators
I think you were asking about Ecuador earlier. Yes, still down here for another 2 weeks. I've been trading too much and not exploring enough. Will head to Peru after.
TOF -- I'm sorry to say it, but the WFR chart looks even worse than that of TAN. TAN had simply returned to its late-January support level, which is bad in itself since a bullish security is supposed to be making higher lows, like AUMN did. WFR, however, BROKE THROUGH the late-January support levels. I'd be really surprised if it doesn't drop below $4 next week. At that point, we might have a bounce that will make the appearance of a double bottom. However, I am not sure if that double bottom will ultimately hold...
TOF- I've been in that position a couple of times. Did you have any free cash to short the equivalent # of shares to offset your long?
Having said that...if you take away my market bias and the bias from that CSFB solar report from earlier, and if I just saw the WFR chart at today's close, I would buy the hell out of it.
I love charts w/ steep angles of decent in very tight channels. I would have loaded the boat at the bell, set a stop at 4.12 and would expect a gap up on Monday that never gets filled.
Because of the angle of decline, it has a lot of room to run assuming there are fundamentals to support the run.
Jesse - Yeah that's my thinking (as to why I chose the $500 and free trades). The angle of descent is pretty extreme so I'm thinking it bounces at some point here. If it was making new 52 week lows well then I would probably have gotten out a while ago (or never gotten in) but it does have a reference point to play against. After going all in on WNC last summer at $6.2 and watching it drop straight to $4.7 (I sold at $5) I vowed to never try to bottom fish but rather try to wait for bottoms to form. With WFR there is at least a bottom to trade against. Odds are likely that it will revisit that bottom though after seeing it trade this week. For me this is a 7% drop in the total port which is certainly manageable. Shit I was down 15% within like 4 days after going all in on MITK a couple of months ago so I have had much worse drops before.
I remember buying and selling WFR on at least 10 occasions between 3.80 and 4.17 when I was in Indonesia a few months back. I thought they were basically giving away the business for free. These old "momo" stocks have a way of returning to their glory especially if their business is more or less what it was in the good old days. Especially if their revenue and cost structure can easily support $3-$4 in eps. I loved it and still do longer term. Anyway,it eventually drove me crazy and I moved on to greener pastures. I was kicking myself when I saw it near 6.
Well..... here it is back at those fire sale prices.
So here is the 3 month daily chart. http://screencast.com/t/bK7vYmxmcSpY I pulled 4.12 out of a$$ earlier today as support and lo and behold what is the low of today? $4.12. So I draw in the line of support through as many bars as possible as tops, bottoms, opens and closes. Where? $4.12. The price action today hits exactly 4.12 and closes off the worst of the day. So far, so good. I also point out the RSI because at .72, only zero is lower. 10 days of selling. Coincidentally, nine days is big Dave Landry's limit, but once in awhile he makes an exception. If you count off the green bars it isn't too long. Are you Elwood or Jake Blues? Because we are on a mission from God here. I think somebody up there was looking after you with your broker. B/A AH? 4.21 bid/ 4.34 ask.
Jesse - I listened pretty intently to the call on WFR and it sounds like with all of the reorg changes they made and drastic overhead cuts, they should be able to boost EPS by at least $0.70 to $0.80. I really have no idea how the solar biz will do longer term. I'm sure you know the story as well as me, but they bought Sun Edison in 2009 and basically blew out their balance sheet with it. Before the purchase they went from $1 Billion + cash and no debt to at least $0.5 Billion in debt. Right now they have about $500 Million in cash and $600 Million in debt.
The negatives: (1) before last quarter they had about $9/share equity but they just did a huge write off of $1.4 Billion that drops book value to about $800 Million or about $3.50/share. So it's no longer a book value play. (2) the fact that they did a huge writeoff less than 3 years after purchasing Sun Edison makes me think that mgmt isn't that great. (3) while they mentioned that the semi biz is bottoming in q1 and that they saw signs of stabilization, they didn't give much concrete guidance to confirm this. (4) there was news out last night that BP is trying to pull out of the Fotowatio project that WFR is a part of. they mentioned on the last call that WFR is entitled to around $70 Million in earnouts on this project so this makes me question if they will get that. not a huge deal but something to be concerned about for sure.
There is a transcript of the last call where mgmt gave a great recap of what they saw coming at them in 2009 (in terms of intense price competition as well as a big drop in market share in their semi biz) and the steps they took correct them. Market share has doubled since then in the semi biz and they're now about the lowest cost provider out there because they are able to make the materials in house instead of purchasing from outside sources. Here is the transcript:
2) "Mgmt isn't that great". They have the worst management of any big cap company. Period. I love the industry and this company and its thousands of employees, but Ahmed whatever his name is a blatant liar. On the past 8 calls or so, he always insists that margins will improve and the price of poly will stabilize or rise. On every call, analysts say they model poly prices dropping x%. But he always insists that everything is great and getting better (especially in Sun Edison where he has made some unbelievable claims). Since I started following WFR, I think they've missed every earnings estimate (that they've given!) by a big margin.
To form a bottom, you have to have management come clean and basically say, "Ok, we've been lying to you for several quarters now. We're simply F'kd- business sucks and we're going to write everything off". Maybe that's what happened last quarter. That's exactly what happened w/ ANR today.
CP- PEIX earnings should be very good. Post bk, they will now be including an additional 50% of the company's revenue into their consolidated statements. So yoy revenue growth should be very impressive.
The problem is that one of their private competitors came out w/ earnings 3 weeks ago which were literally unbelievable due to the ethanol spread. Unfortunately, they said that earnings for ethanol companies would be greatly diminished going forward due to the spread and lessened subsidies.
"There have been only two other times the S&P 500 fund, SPY, hit at least a six-month high on the lowest volume in at least a month at the same time Crude Oil reached at least a six-month high. Those were 7/16/99 and 4/5/10.
The former saw the S&P peak that day, while the latter took a few weeks. During the three months following both occurrences, the S&P lost at least -11% at its worst point. So as much as we can read into two occurrences (not much, obviously), the low turnover in spite of high oil didn't seem to be a good sign."
jesse - on that WFR chart one thing i noticed that was another on the checklist before buying in was higher volume on up days. that huge volume day on 12/18/12 kind of just turned things around for them. i believe that was the day they came clean and just gutted the place, laying off 20% of its work force. after that point the high volume days were on up days. this recent selloff has had a couple of relatively high volume days but there were still a few up days in the past 2 months that had higher volume. that's usually a good sign.
Nasdaq approaches 1650 target, S&P500 finds resistance by Colin Twiggs
Nasdaq 100 indexis approaching its target of 2650*. Expect retracement to test the new support level at 2400. Respect would confirm a strong up-trend despite the lower high (bearish divergence) on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. * Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 - 2150 ) = 2650
The S&P 500 encountered short-term resistance at 1370, indicated by declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, but the primary up-trend appears healthy. Retracement that respects support at 1300 would signal trend strength -- even better if we have a narrow consolidation below the resistance level.
I was shocked to open the daily insider purchases email and see that WFR had several big purchases listed. William James just filed about 400k in purchases......
Telestar3dFeb 23, 2012 08:00 PM
ReplyDeletefrom Jesse's Cafe:
As you may recall I said early this year that the markets had the flavor of a 'market operation' on the tape, a conscious effort to inflate asset prices. If you look at some of the key market charts, the price action has pretty much been a thrown rope, never violating the 15 Day Moving Average.
It has been a while since I have seen a Williams%R pegged to the topside like this with barely a flutter, especially considering all the hijinks going on in Europe. Must be an 'inspiring confidence' sort of thing.
If you want to know why the Fed and Treasury keep the TBTF around, this may be the reason: to implement their global financial policy decisions. How long they can keep it up is another matter. But they are not likely to run out of money, and much of the buying and selling in these equity markets is artificial, the quick action of computers shaving off nickels in a well-tempered instrument.
It will probably take some incident to break this uptrend, so wait for it.
Okay, new post cut and paste:
DeleteThink about this. If we make new highs in the P's we will have the two large indices above resistance (would then be support) and the big fundies sitting out would have to, as Landry says, "Fish or cut bait". That would force money into the market and drive them higher before a correction to test support.
We do have some possible incidents that could materialize, mainly some military action with Iran, some European fiscal matter or a way outside chance of a natural disaster or terrorist attack of some kind. Iran and Europe seem to have better odds.
A lot of the action I'm seeing is on technical chart set ups, not computers. And not your "classical" TA most people think of like support/resistance/head and shoulders and what you might read about in O'Neil's books, but much simpler pullback/acceleration patterns that aren't really level or price generated. This leads me to not think they are computer generated but the results of people, especially because they have been running a lot more than "shaving nickels".
DeleteThe solar corrections weren't computer generated. People either pulled bids or outright sold on the German news. Regardless, most of those stocks still finished off their worst levels and I was watching them catch bids or I would have been one of those sellers. It's certainly possible if not outright true that liquidity can do a lot but I think that is the extent of it. I think they know what Landry knows, get the indices all above resistance and it will drive itself higher and have support at key levels. It's always hard to drive markets past resistance as previous buyers sell at break even. So I expect it to take some effort.
When did we start posting commie pinko youtubes on the blog? This guy is bitching because we are in a bull market and his bear argument is crap? And this is GRIM? This guy is whack.
DeleteOhhhhh, it's Tim Knight the whack job. How does he stay liquid? Hasn't he crashed out yet?
DeleteCC- The last video I saw like this from him was right before the reversal in gold.
ReplyDeleteI don't care. He goes through all these whacky gyrations and technical BS to come to the conclsuion the market can do what it wants? I could save him hours of bullshit, just draw an arrow. It points to the upper right on all the indices and sectors except the dollar.
Deletewe have money out the yingyang in Europe and the States and gold and oil heading higher, a sure sign of liquidity and "it's really grim" the markets are going higher?
A reversal in gold will take a corresponding run in $USD and a weaker Euro. Surely this can happen at any time but since when do traders fight the tape?
My question would be what the charts looked like before "the reversal in gold". Gold doesn't just move in a vaccuum. BTW, Landry was calling that reversal/correction in gold for weeks, it was obvious. As usual he included his standard caveat for gold "it can have nine lives". So we didn't short it and look what happened. It had nine lives and the $USD call failed.
This is a surprise with central banks in charge? Even BC called that right during the summer at the lows.
This youtube taught me a lot! DO NOT FIGHT THE TAPE.
A very good but short read.....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/pleasure-principles/
“What will fill the vacuum formerly occupied by religion?”
"It appears that the large cap indexes are continuing upwards due to the success of huge stocks like AAPL and IBM, but the broader market has been working off it's oversold condition, likely preparing for another move upwards."
ReplyDeleteBB, a narrowing leadership in the past has almost always resulted in market pullbacks. So I wouldn't use this as a bullish argument.
The fact that most "luminaries" agree that the current rally is here to stay, surprisingly, does not mean that the rally is over. The rally will give way to a noticeable pullback when we run out of buyers. Since many mutual/pension funds have a much smaller equity exposure than usual, it will take them at least a few months to bump it up according to the recommendation of "luminaries", and only THEN we might temporarily run out of buyers. But not now. So I expect a repetition of Fall 2010, when everyone was saying QE2 will result in a large rally and the crowd was right for 6 months, until EVERYONE and his brother finally was fully invested into equities...
Tim Knight "getting dangerously close to an honest to goodness bull market"
ReplyDeleteWonder how many people are like Tim and think a solid bull is starting now that we are up 25% and will be chasing then market higher from here.
David,
ReplyDeleteI agree we a narrowing market is not bullish, so we would need to see these broader market ETF's start to move up, but my point is more that perhaps the correction has already taken place and we are set for the next bull phase. I did some more digging on this and Helene Meisler over at realmoney actually makes the point that we approaching an oversold condition.
It is remarkable how similar the market charts from the current bull run are to the one coming out of the fall of 2010. If the pattern hods, we should expect a small correction / consolidation shortly, then a resumption of the uptrend. The thing that makes me question that though is how many people are expecting this at this time, meaning everyone is prepared for it, so it likely won't happen.
ANR earnings out. Horrible. The estimate has been coming down continuously for weeks- down to .29. They came out w/ a loss of .07. W/ all of the charges, they lost something like $3.50 per share.
ReplyDeleteWho knows. The earnings may be so bad that it marks a bottom. We'll see.
DECK - Will they beat feet to $75?
ReplyDeleteDECK - On second thought, I think $70 might even be a possibility.
ReplyDeleteBut the trend line's at $77, so that might hold.
ReplyDeleteThe PNF has a target objective of $116.46
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=deck,pepmdanrbr&pnf=y
ANR - Is a double bottom in store?
ReplyDeleteXIN - This thing's been flying, and the PE is still only 2...
ReplyDeleteI'm still amazed at the ego of Tim Knight. I woke up this morning thinking how his video actually drives the bull market as everyone dumb enough to listen to him capitulates and covers their silly short positions. I want to know what he's short. If he has followers they will be short too and we should see a Tim Knight "Cramer" effect and squeezes in those stocks.
ReplyDeleteNotice what Big Dave sez:
"Got Random Thoughts:
The indices dipped, found their low, then reversed to close well
and in the plus column. That's exactly how a market in a bull move
should act-weak in the morning and then strong in the afternoon.
This action has the Ps just shy of multi-year highs. Channeling
Bela Karolyi (or actually more like Waterboy since I'm a Coonass):
"You can do it! You can doooo it!"
And, if I it does do it, once again: I think new highs would beget
new highs as top pickers would be squeezed out and investors on the
sidelines would be forced to fish or cut bait.
I'm not seeing a many new setups so focus mostly on what you
already have. Take partial profits as offered and honor your stops
just in case.
Futures are flat to firm pre-market.
Best of luck with your trading today!"
Dave
"Top pickers" Yep, I think that about covers it. I think the market will pick the top, when I least expect it no doubt. The plan has to factor that in.
perhaps we're just as arrogant trying to pick bottoms in solar?
DeleteBB- Are you able to summarize Meisler's case for 'oversold?'
ReplyDeleteTSM - I think $13 would be a great entry, seems like Wall Street is beating up on the semi industry lately.
ReplyDeleteI don't know guys. A couple of weeks ago, there were literally hundreds of great setups. I looked for hours last night and couldn't find much of anything. Coals rolling over, solars dumping, DANG etc. In my book this is a great indication of the internals. We are going to sell off soon.
ReplyDeleteWe simply have to in order for the next round of great setups to emerge.
Definitely not bullish on natty today. Would like to see something develop heading into the first week of March.
ReplyDeleteAll natty futures bumped up against their 50dma's overnight. Not ready to break through quite yet.
Deletethat TZOO is really attracted to $25.
ReplyDeleteI was just looking at the ZOO also...on my ultra fast, secure, laptop you cheap scape.
DeleteScrew DJIA 13,000- I think the much bigger story will be Nasdaq 3000. Would love to see us trade up there today or Monday for a short opp.
ReplyDeleteMDR let go at 14.19
ReplyDeleteOn ANR call
Coals look really good today. Bottom?
DeleteThere were 8 Landry service setups last night, none short.
ReplyDeleteShort squeeze du juor. look at Meli.
ReplyDeleteLooks like cheap plastic clogs are beating overly priced fake Aus. boots made in China. CROX/DECK
ReplyDeletei'll pony up for the mac if you stop supporting patent infringement with those cheap ugg imitations you're buying.
DeleteThere's some big trades going on in MITK.
ReplyDeletefinally a big up day for WFR!
ReplyDeletecoals? that's the kind of action you like to see off bad news. BTU up nicely. lets see if she holds
for what it's worth, my generation hasn't ever experienced a true bull run. i graduated college in 2000, at the peak of the bull market. i have never traded a true bull market before so i don't know what it's really like. one day my generation will get one.
ReplyDeleteANR surging.
ReplyDeleteLiquidated all except doggie MDW.
ReplyDeleteCoal bottom? I'm not good at calling tops or bottoms (except hers). But as you dudes noted sector is firm today off bad ANR news. I most likely trade ANR today. None of the coal stock charts jump out at me and say this is it, buy or be left behind more of a red/black bet.
ANR 0.04 19.86 - 19.87 0.20%
BTU 0.94 36.69 + 36.71 2.63%
WLT 1.16 66.63 - 66.71 1.77%
PCX 0.17 8.10 - 8.11 2.14%
CNX 0.63 35.99 + 36.01 1.77%
JRCC -0.04 6.43 + 6.44 -0.62%
So now I have a clear mind! Good
ANR exploding:) Earnings so bad, they're great!
DeleteIt's not the news that counts: It's how the markets react to the news!
DeleteANR positive, looking at my log last sold on 2/8 at 22.45. Very nice range today, but seemed to be happy to do nothing.
From Feb. 22 Meisler column. She bases her short term oversold / overbought condition on the previous 10 days. Basically says the Russell 2000 was negative 8 of the previous 11 days, but RUT stayed flat, so individual stocks were going down, even if index wasn't.
ReplyDeleteTake a look at http://realmoney.thestreet.com/articles/02/22/2012/headed-toward-oversold-believe-it-or-not
Been looking at CIS today. $80 million in cash, 0 debt, great chart pattern. Chinese:(
ReplyDeleteCan't get myself to buy it.
I'm officially in investing hell waiting for WFR to stop me out. What a dog.
ReplyDeleteThis is a tough call TOF. You have support at 4.12 or there abouts and you are ten days into a decline. This is usually the time they flip around and head higher, but $30K is a F of a lot of cash to play with. Maybe a little discretion is in order, what's a few more $$$ since you are already down? Maybe you don't get stopped out. Seems like the point of maximum pain.
DeleteBP - That IH&S looks like it's got a ways to run.
ReplyDeleteThose patterns aren't all that important at mid levels like this, but the big picture C&H and possible problems with Iran (looking more imminent)will drive oilers higher. This chart breaks out for a bit at around 49.40. Until then it still has some recent overhead.
DeleteMost pessimistic industry sentiment:
ReplyDeleteShipbuilding- 16% (Investment Co.'s #2 at 30%)
Most pessimistic sentiment for individual stocks:
OSG - 9%
Picked some up for a rental. We'll see..
I need a quick hundy for the weekend. Give me a stock to scalp.
ReplyDeletethe market is real dull. MELI ANR DECK royl, VXX, and the stock that mocks, WLL. Might be movers
DeleteLOL! You should have asked yesterday or this AM! Things were moving this AM.
DeleteI'm going the other way into the EOD/Friday...2,000 SDS @ 16.10.
DeleteThe VXX is telling me that is the right move.
DeleteLong VXX. lets bring some fear 24.20
DeleteOut for 200 clams thanks Mark for waking me from the coma.
DeletePicking up WFR here as it sits on lower B-band on the 10 day. Bands are really starting to tighten.
ReplyDeleteCould move on Monday if we don't crash:)
Actually I think i'll go long WFR before close, but want to see if they cough it up first.
ReplyDeleteI was this close to selling WFR today but now you guys convinced me to really sell!
ReplyDeletejk
What did they say in that Livermore book? It's a bull market?
ReplyDeleteJust wanted to give you a guys that a top might be near: XWES is about to ring the bell at $5.
ReplyDeletea heads up i meant to say.
Deleteguys - can we please talk about PEIX?
ReplyDeleteRipping all day
Deletedoes jk equal jinx?
ReplyDeleteI bet this, if you sell today you will set low tick, as to tommorrow ah Monday, who knows.
The markets are so perverse at times. Index dull all the action is stock specific.
Bear I was going to say yesterday to look at AREX and that's where WLL is going still think that. BTW, nice cash registor ring yesterday!!!
Current coal
ReplyDeleteANR 0.40 20.22 + 20.23 2.02%
BTU 0.62 36.37 - 36.39 1.73%
WLT 1.45 66.94 + 66.99 2.21%
PCX 0.16 8.10 + 8.11 2.02%
CNX 0.90 36.27 + 36.28 2.55%
JRCC -0.08 6.38 - 6.39 -1.24%
For what it's worth the P&F Chart has a price objective of $0 for WFR.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=WFR,P&listNum=
Dollar testing the 200 today it seems.
ReplyDelete2:00 rally time or fake out? I hate 2:00
ReplyDeleteContra Hour: I love it
DeleteAlso in love with 1st 90 minutes, contra and the last 60 minutes.
"Contra Hour: I love it." Knew you were always a Reagan guy. You Love that Ollie North also?
DeleteHA HA, where's Marvin Gaye?
DeleteExited WFR -.01 and OSG -.10. I have absolutely zero conviction in this market. I know that the second I capitulate and go long, the market will crash.
ReplyDeleteThen I read this solar report from CSFB:
"At this point, US demand in 2Q12 is
looking at the same level as it did in 3Q11 - which implies a decline of over 65% q/q is possible in 2Q12 for US panel
shipments. If we see such large declines starting early April, factory loadings may start to slow in China from early March,
which would suggest incremental purchasing of upstream silicon may start to slow some point in the next 2-3 weeks."
well it's pretty clear from how these are trading that the demand for solar will never equal supply.
DeleteWFR - This PNF has a current objective of $2.91
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=wfr,pepmdanrbr&pnf=y
WFR - If you were to call the current formation an H&S with H this month, left shoulder last month and just recently fell through neckline, then $2.91 does look like H&S target.
ReplyDeleteContra hour was much ado about nothing. Back to the coma. Maybe last hour will bring something. Have vxx in a box short above .40 long above .50. I'm leaning short no one fears this market.
ReplyDeleteWhy lean? long VXX. 24.53 Fear
Deleteout at 24.89
DeleteFull disclosure just lost .12 on 25 false break
DeleteSVM - Crap, this thing's dying on the vine again...
ReplyDeleteContra Hour has 45 minutes to go.
ReplyDeleteAnother good day for tennis after the close. Still diggin Ecuador Jes?
aaaand stopped out. $4.24. lovely.
ReplyDeletescratch that i meant to say 4.22.
DeleteSorry to hear that, bummer.
DeleteWFR
ReplyDelete23 block trades with vol of 357,000
fwiw
wonderful...for whatever reason they have a hold on my account so my stop out didn't go through.
ReplyDeleteoh this is just wonderful. i'm now on hold as they try to figure out why my account was put on hold. beautiful timing!
DeleteHunn???
DeleteDemand a supervisor now!! by phone of course
Deletejeezus h! i put in a request to transfer my 401k account over to an IRA at TD Ameritrade (where I have my personal account) and it looks like they put a freeze on all of my TD Ameritrade accounts until it gets transferred in. this is ridiculous.
DeleteNo shit? That's F'ed up. Even if it works against you that is F'ed up.
DeleteTOF- No fucking way should they be able to do that.
DeleteAfter today, then write a letter to the President and ask to be made whole if this goes aganist you.
DeleteI wonder if the big man upstairs is trying to tell me something. This is unreal timing.
DeleteDing Ding Ding...Winner winner chicken dinner. 2,000 SDS off @ 16.18 for $101 after fees!! Top shelf marg's again!!!
ReplyDeletenice
DeleteWFR bottomed at 3.96. All stocks can go to zero but I doubt the book value is under 3.96.
ReplyDeleteThe reason I aksed TOF what his basis was the other day is the biggest down bar I could find on WFR was .80 cents, which meant his stop should be below the normal noise of .80 cents, more like a buck. His basis is around 4.80 which means his stop needs to be below $4, but his mental stop is 4.25 close (I think). That is, if he can take the pain.
It's one of those position size issues....I can't speak for him and I'm glad it isn't me who has to decide.
CC - Well, luckily I only have 1/2 of the port in it. however, if i had a full position I would have most likely cut bait already.
Deletenow in call holding hell...just curious CC - where do you see the largest bar of $.80
DeleteThere's an .84 bar back in Aug.
Delete1/11/12 .93 swing.
DeletePersonally, I think those stops are too wide, but that is just me.
That's CC's suggested stops to clarify, but they of personal taste.
DeleteWhat makes more sense? To place stops within normal price movements and get stopped out all the time or to use wider stops and better position size to limit risk? I know it's a personal thing, but how many times have you been stopped out and then had a stock leave you and your stopped out loss in the dust? I think it makes more sense to factor in a stocks normal price fluctuations and use them to size the position to limit risk.
Deletei'm hoping this whole account freeze bullshit turns out to be a good omen....still on phone.
ReplyDeleteFor you old timers...Seriously, how many failed attempts @ 13,000 would cause concern?
ReplyDeleteMark - I vividly remember the market doing this at another round number much lower...maybe S&P 1,000?
DeleteYou have to expect that those who bought or were here in 20007 will look to get out at break even, which makes getting above 13,000 and holding it slow. See my post below.
DeleteThe point is to hold it here and wait for March 1 and the influx of more retirement and investment cash into long only funds and those seeking income who look at T's and scoff at losing $$$ to inflation and knowing fully well T's will sell off on rising yields and they will lose principal. Equities are the only place to go.
Little divergence here in the VIX/SPX.
ReplyDeleteThis is crazy man...they're now going to call me back. I'm beginning to wonder if this is a big ploy for me to not get stopped out :)
ReplyDeleteCC - WFR bottomed in the $3.6 area and has had bigger bars than $0.80. Where time frame are you looking at?
Sorry. $3.65 is the low. Mark is right it's .84 cents, I was eyeballing it.
DeleteT3D is right though, stops are a personal thing.
My risk is 2% of my totl port if I'm stopped out (I'm an old dude, I don't have a lot of time to make up big losses), so my size would only be 2% of my port divided by the biggest down bar plus a margin of safety to keep me outside of normal noise. I wouldn't ever have a position of 50% of my port, so my stops can't really apply to that size position.
I was looking at a daily chart over one year which is a good sample of recent trading.
FWIW- S2 for WFR is 4.10.
ReplyDeleteVolume has dried up for REDF.
ReplyDeleteFWIW, I think they are going to hold it near 13,000 until the end of Feb/beginning of March for the usual push of investment cash at the first of the month which will force everyone in.
ReplyDeleteAs it is from my little chart here I'm even with the S&P this month. I was killing it before this last week.
I love how Scottrade news just now flashes shit on a solar ETF. One thing it does say....trina is down, FSLR is down.
ReplyDeleteSOL is UP 3%.
There is the winner. Nice chart too.
Day 2 for VVUS.
ReplyDeleteShe's ruining it for me Kyle.
ReplyDeleteShe has been bearish for quite a while now.
ReplyDeleteUnbelievable. I'm still waiting for an answer from AMTD. They know they f*cked up and are doing some CYA
ReplyDeleteThere's some heavy selling going on in WFR. I just saw a 450k sh block get sold.
Looks like WFR is setting up for a flush down the toilet into the close.
ReplyDeletedid you have a mechanical order. Did the person you first talk to note the price. I don't understand why they could not close it out when you were talking on the phone. Even if the account was frozen. I would stick to the price wfr was when you called. They will make good on it in my opinion your a great customer.
DeleteCraig's take on 13000 until the beginning of March has my 'support.' As soon as I read it, the sixth sense bought it.
ReplyDeleteI think I will have the option of closing out WFR at $4.22 or $4.24 which is what my stop was or keeping the position on. They're still trying to get it resolved but if it rallies into the close it would be kind of funny.
ReplyDeleteI am tempted to stop myself out of TAN. If it were in a real uptrend, then yesterday's plunge should have washed out all weak hands and the buyers should have returned today. But they didn't... What do you, folks, think?
ReplyDeleteThey are shutting down coal mines and capping nat gas wells. Sure oil is going up, but solar is power generation and the power generating fuels are cheap. Other than the shrinking govt subsides what would be the reason for a solar resurgence?
DeleteLet's try confusing the issue with facts...why will aapl sell off with record earnings?
DeleteIf we insist on using some reasoning or logic then the logic is the dollar goes down and the energy sector goes up together. Oil goes higher, then so does coal, NG, electricity, solar and wind. The fossils are fungible resources priced in dollars, so more use worldwide is worldwide demand and higher prices in dollars. Why is SOL up 3% while all the others are down? Do we have to know or care? I don't care why.
Look at WFR. Had a low of 4.12 and it closed at 4.18. Why? Who knows? Somebody was buying into the close.
For me, it's only as simple as the chart says they are trending higher.
For example, who would have fundamentally thought National Bank of Greece was going higher? Logic would tell us it's done like dinner. It's up 3.45% today. There isn't any logic to markets sometimes.
Chart guys? THats all they think about, charts! The chart looks like shit for Tan. As CC says what more do you need.
DeleteApple is going to sell off?
DeleteTOF: When they call take your time answering and tell them you have your lawyer on the other line.
ReplyDeleteTell them they have to make good on your stop or you will have to get it another way.
Looks like CNBC is going to talk about PEIX.
ReplyDeletePEIX -- what a POS! It first made a lower high in mid-Feb, I exited my position because the chart did not look bullish, and today it left everyone behind!
ReplyDeleteNow the TAN chart is not looking bullish to me -- if it were in a real uptrend, then it should not have returned back to its support after a breakout...
ReplyDeleteScrew it -- out of my 300 shares of TAN at $29.86. My cost basis was $31.50 (after accounting for the split). Still holding 20 July $2 calls on TAN (pre-split) at the average cost of $1.20...
ReplyDeleteRB - I had a stop at $4.24 online and I checked and it first said it was filled at $4.24 then I hit refresh and it said $4.22 then it said "error". That's when I found out what happened.
ReplyDeleteOut of curiosity fellas...if you look at a chart like WFR where it had what looked like a clear bottom a few months ago, a big run up, and then a pullback, how many times does it go on to make higher highs after a pullback as severe as WFR has had?
The 236% retracement is $4.18 for u Fib guys
DeleteI think they will have to honor it. trouble will be WFR's gap up to 4.50 on monday.
DeleteLot of volume in MITK here. Man, people love to trade these break outs.
ReplyDeleteFunny how 2 months ago we were stressing about that and now it's up 65%
DeleteWell this ordeal is done. Sorry about bogging down the blog on this. I decided to not sell but I was able to get a $500 concession and 3 months of free trades. I'm gonna trade the shit out of these next 3 months. ha
ReplyDeleteWent long CLF at close.
ReplyDeleteThis is what it does:
Cliffs Natural Resources Inc., a mining and natural resources company, engages in the production of iron ore pellets, fines and lump ore, and metallurgical coal.
Chart somewhat interesting today with a pick-up in vol. later gators
That is an interesting one.
DeleteT3- I was looking at CLF earlier. Looks good.
DeleteI think you were asking about Ecuador earlier. Yes, still down here for another 2 weeks. I've been trading too much and not exploring enough. Will head to Peru after.
TOF -- I'm sorry to say it, but the WFR chart looks even worse than that of TAN. TAN had simply returned to its late-January support level, which is bad in itself since a bullish security is supposed to be making higher lows, like AUMN did. WFR, however, BROKE THROUGH the late-January support levels. I'd be really surprised if it doesn't drop below $4 next week. At that point, we might have a bounce that will make the appearance of a double bottom. However, I am not sure if that double bottom will ultimately hold...
ReplyDeleteTOF- I've been in that position a couple of times. Did you have any free cash to short the equivalent # of shares to offset your long?
ReplyDeleteHaving said that...if you take away my market bias and the bias from that CSFB solar report from earlier, and if I just saw the WFR chart at today's close, I would buy the hell out of it.
I love charts w/ steep angles of decent in very tight channels. I would have loaded the boat at the bell, set a stop at 4.12 and would expect a gap up on Monday that never gets filled.
Because of the angle of decline, it has a lot of room to run assuming there are fundamentals to support the run.
Jesse - Yeah that's my thinking (as to why I chose the $500 and free trades). The angle of descent is pretty extreme so I'm thinking it bounces at some point here. If it was making new 52 week lows well then I would probably have gotten out a while ago (or never gotten in) but it does have a reference point to play against. After going all in on WNC last summer at $6.2 and watching it drop straight to $4.7 (I sold at $5) I vowed to never try to bottom fish but rather try to wait for bottoms to form. With WFR there is at least a bottom to trade against. Odds are likely that it will revisit that bottom though after seeing it trade this week. For me this is a 7% drop in the total port which is certainly manageable. Shit I was down 15% within like 4 days after going all in on MITK a couple of months ago so I have had much worse drops before.
ReplyDeleteNo worries TOF. It'll work out well for you.
DeleteI remember buying and selling WFR on at least 10 occasions between 3.80 and 4.17 when I was in Indonesia a few months back. I thought they were basically giving away the business for free. These old "momo" stocks have a way of returning to their glory especially if their business is more or less what it was in the good old days. Especially if their revenue and cost structure can easily support $3-$4 in eps. I loved it and still do longer term. Anyway,it eventually drove me crazy and I moved on to greener pastures. I was kicking myself when I saw it near 6.
Well..... here it is back at those fire sale prices.
WFR: The good, the bad, and the not so ugly.
ReplyDeleteSo here is the 3 month daily chart.
http://screencast.com/t/bK7vYmxmcSpY
I pulled 4.12 out of a$$ earlier today as support and lo and behold what is the low of today? $4.12.
So I draw in the line of support through as many bars as possible as tops, bottoms, opens and closes. Where? $4.12.
The price action today hits exactly 4.12 and closes off the worst of the day.
So far, so good. I also point out the RSI because at .72, only zero is lower. 10 days of selling. Coincidentally, nine days is big Dave Landry's limit, but once in awhile he makes an exception. If you count off the green bars it isn't too long. Are you Elwood or Jake Blues? Because we are on a mission from God here. I think somebody up there was looking after you with your broker.
B/A AH? 4.21 bid/ 4.34 ask.
I especially like all the volatility and mega volume at the lod.
DeleteIt gaps higher and never looks back.
Jesse - I listened pretty intently to the call on WFR and it sounds like with all of the reorg changes they made and drastic overhead cuts, they should be able to boost EPS by at least $0.70 to $0.80. I really have no idea how the solar biz will do longer term. I'm sure you know the story as well as me, but they bought Sun Edison in 2009 and basically blew out their balance sheet with it. Before the purchase they went from $1 Billion + cash and no debt to at least $0.5 Billion in debt. Right now they have about $500 Million in cash and $600 Million in debt.
ReplyDeleteThe negatives:
(1) before last quarter they had about $9/share equity but they just did a huge write off of $1.4 Billion that drops book value to about $800 Million or about $3.50/share. So it's no longer a book value play.
(2) the fact that they did a huge writeoff less than 3 years after purchasing Sun Edison makes me think that mgmt isn't that great.
(3) while they mentioned that the semi biz is bottoming in q1 and that they saw signs of stabilization, they didn't give much concrete guidance to confirm this.
(4) there was news out last night that BP is trying to pull out of the Fotowatio project that WFR is a part of. they mentioned on the last call that WFR is entitled to around $70 Million in earnouts on this project so this makes me question if they will get that. not a huge deal but something to be concerned about for sure.
There is a transcript of the last call where mgmt gave a great recap of what they saw coming at them in 2009 (in terms of intense price competition as well as a big drop in market share in their semi biz) and the steps they took correct them. Market share has doubled since then in the semi biz and they're now about the lowest cost provider out there because they are able to make the materials in house instead of purchasing from outside sources. Here is the transcript:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/370271-memc-electronic-materials-ceo-discusses-q4-2011-results-earnings-call-transcript?source=yahoo
2) "Mgmt isn't that great". They have the worst management of any big cap company. Period. I love the industry and this company and its thousands of employees, but Ahmed whatever his name is a blatant liar. On the past 8 calls or so, he always insists that margins will improve and the price of poly will stabilize or rise. On every call, analysts say they model poly prices dropping x%. But he always insists that everything is great and getting better (especially in Sun Edison where he has made some unbelievable claims). Since I started following WFR, I think they've missed every earnings estimate (that they've given!) by a big margin.
DeleteTo form a bottom, you have to have management come clean and basically say, "Ok, we've been lying to you for several quarters now. We're simply F'kd- business sucks and we're going to write everything off". Maybe that's what happened last quarter. That's exactly what happened w/ ANR today.
PEIX - Earnings Monday after the bell.
ReplyDeleteOkay, so someone's guessing there will be some decent news?
CP- PEIX earnings should be very good. Post bk, they will now be including an additional 50% of the company's revenue into their consolidated statements. So yoy revenue growth should be very impressive.
DeleteThe problem is that one of their private competitors came out w/ earnings 3 weeks ago which were literally unbelievable due to the ethanol spread. Unfortunately, they said that earnings for ethanol companies would be greatly diminished going forward due to the spread and lessened subsidies.
Having said that, the chart is rad:)
ST:
ReplyDelete"There have been only two other times the S&P 500 fund, SPY, hit at least a six-month high on the lowest volume in at least a month at the same time Crude Oil reached at least a six-month high. Those were 7/16/99 and 4/5/10.
The former saw the S&P peak that day, while the latter took a few weeks. During the three months following both occurrences, the S&P lost at least -11% at its worst point. So as much as we can read into two occurrences (not much, obviously), the low turnover in spite of high oil didn't seem to be a good sign."
jesse - on that WFR chart one thing i noticed that was another on the checklist before buying in was higher volume on up days. that huge volume day on 12/18/12 kind of just turned things around for them. i believe that was the day they came clean and just gutted the place, laying off 20% of its work force. after that point the high volume days were on up days. this recent selloff has had a couple of relatively high volume days but there were still a few up days in the past 2 months that had higher volume. that's usually a good sign.
ReplyDeleteANW is a big buy if it can get to $6. Man I forgot about that one. Bummer.
ReplyDeleteNasdaq approaches 1650 target, S&P500 finds resistance
ReplyDeleteby Colin Twiggs
Nasdaq 100 indexis approaching its target of 2650*. Expect retracement to test the new support level at 2400. Respect would confirm a strong up-trend despite the lower high (bearish divergence) on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow.
* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 - 2150 ) = 2650
The S&P 500 encountered short-term resistance at 1370, indicated by declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, but the primary up-trend appears healthy. Retracement that respects support at 1300 would signal trend strength -- even better if we have a narrow consolidation below the resistance level.
I was shocked to open the daily insider purchases email and see that WFR had several big purchases listed. William James just filed about 400k in purchases......
ReplyDeleteFROM Aug. 12th! Odd.
Portly...Do you know anything about DBCO?
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete