(a) I haven't really transitioned into a market bull, of course. I still think US indexes are headed south over the summer. But markets trade on varying time frames. Going into next week, I sense too many bears out having fun, and we all know the Market doesn't like to see traders having fun!
(b) A short squeeze lies around the corner.
(c) Not saying it necessarily unfolds Monday morning. Indeed, another high odds bet is buying into a sell off continues the Monday following a brutal week. Traders with nothing better to do on weekends will ruminate on underwater positions, and a typical comment overheard at the golf course on Sunday afternoon is, 'I'm selling it all at the open on Monday.'
(d) Two pitches to swing at: (i) open positions in QQQ +/- EEM +/- VGK at today's close and/or during the extended hours session, and close when shorts gap prices up on a run for the exits, or (ii) take shares off the golfers' hands during a gap down Monday morning, and close positions at end of day.
For trapped bulls, it's a great opportunity to lighten up on positions. Anyone who shorted or bought puts today? They may find themselves in a 'bear trap.'
http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/?iid=H_INV_QL
ReplyDeleteThat kind of looks like fear to me. We could use a little more, but we don't always get that.
We are oversold but the VIX isn't really that extreme. Who knows? No one. That's why I like the game I'm playing. I've got some longs and I've got some shorts. I've lost some open profits on some of the longs and I've made some good open profits on the shorts. It really doesn't matter what happens when you just follow the trends in individual stocks.
ReplyDeleteThere is always somebody trying to explain whatever happens and it's always nonsense. Barry says it well....
Barry Ritholtz examines the reasons for the current sell-off:
None of these casual explanations can withstand close examination. They are often things that have existed for months or years, and so can't account for what happened yesterday......
"Here is the simple reality most of us try desperately to ignore: Most of the time, we have no idea what is going on. Our understanding of objective reality is at best tenuous. At its worst, our beliefs reflect a completely erroneous viewpoint, one that is as comforting as it is misleading. Indeed, the comfort often comes from hiding the truth from ourselves."
So many things always going on, but pundits try and simplify it to a soundbite. Reality is supply demand either oushes stocks up or down.
DeleteI'm sharpening the Chicken shiv as we speak!
ReplyDeleteDon't do it chicken!
DeleteMark are the google glasses as nerdy as they look?
DeleteSPX (1980-now,monthly) -- here's another chart from jedimasterstudent towards the end of the comments on Caldaro's EOW writeup ...
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1980-01-01&en=(today)&id=p06351701823&a=339006802&listNum=7
http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2014/04/12/weekend-update-444/#comment-156638
Seems possible to retest 1600 support on a pullback?
Deletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_Lauriston_Livermore
ReplyDeleteNoticed that above wikipedia page has nice links to several pdf's including 'How To Trade In Stocks' from 1940. Towards the end under 'Books'
Nice to see stable links for these pdf's for a change.
Livermore --
ReplyDelete“My satisfaction always came from beating the market, solving the puzzle. The money was the reward, but it was not the main reason I loved the market. The stock market is the greatest, most complex puzzle ever invented — and it pays the biggest jackpot… .it was never the money that drove me. It was the game, solving the puzzle, beating the market that had confused and confounded the greatest minds in history. For me, that passion, the juice, the exhilaration was in beating the game, a game that was a living dynamic riddle, a conundrum to everyone who speculated on Wall Street.”
Does anyone have a reference for this quote??? I haven't been able to find it in the usual books / documents.
http://prudenttrader.com/2010/10/jesse-livermore-trading-quotes/
Interesting note I saw:
ReplyDelete"There have only been two other times in the past 20 years that the Nasdaq Composite had dropped more than 8% from its 52 week high, but the VIX “fear gauge” was still below 17.5, a scenario we have now. It shows relative complacency in the face of a sell-off in higher beta stocks.
Those two occurrences were March 28, 2002 and May 15, 2008. The S&P 500 sold off more than 15% over the next three months both times. "
USAK- Wow. This one is crazy.
ReplyDeleteLooks like Stone House Capital has confidence in this one.
DeleteFlash Boys,
ReplyDeleteI'm about half way through it, fascinating. It will on reinforce how corrupt the whole capitalistic system has become, not just wall street which always was.
Everyone who trades should read this book.
"The truth is, almost everything about superior investing is a
ReplyDeletetwo
-edged sword:
If you invest, you will lose money if the market declines.
If you don’t invest, you will miss out on gains if the market rises.
Market timing will add value if it can be done right.
Buy-and-hold will produce better results if
timing can’t be done right.
Aggressiveness will help when the market rises but hurt when it falls.
Defensiveness will help when the market falls but hurt when it rises.
If you concentrate your portfolio, your mistakes will kill you.
If you diversify, the
payoff
from your successes
will be
diminished.
If you employ
leverage, your successes will be magnified.
If you employ
leverage, your mistakes will be magnified. "
BSBR - "Earnings estimates surge"
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/surging-earnings-estimates-signal-good-100507941.html
Closed QQQ + SLW at the open.
ReplyDeleteC - Little different story today, or temporary enthusiasm?
ReplyDelete14 April 2014 Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -13 989
ReplyDeleteBALT needs to close better than $5.19, looks like it might, huh? Is so, Fakeout?
No edge right now . Could have played tza at the open but we are not far enough from 1080 to give me a good feel for a high return / low risk trade. Prob will sit on hands today . Good luck fellas
ReplyDeleteGM bouncing this morning. Still under water from my $33.67 purchase price. Hard to know for sure when it stops going down as the bad news keeps coming, but at this price, there should be some really good upside. Just hard to know when it comes. Of course, there is the possibility the news gets worse, but I really don't think the government wants to beat on GM while they are still down and recovering.
ReplyDeleteI just noticed there's a gap down that has to fill, so maybe Friday was THE entry/add opportunity...
DeleteBAS - Kickn' ass, along with CXO
ReplyDeleteSee C, nice fakeout the analists concocted?
Bought NOW at 50.6 this morning. Will use drop below recent lows or about a 8% hit as stop. This is a big winner longer term and I like it at 30% off
ReplyDeleteActually I bailed at 50.7 thinking maybe I get a better chance
DeleteBack to $57, to make the right shoulder then down to $45 for a fake breakdown through the neckline, then comes the rip to new highs.
DeleteMaybe not yet for NOW?
DeleteIs the sky still falling, or is the shorting party finally done having their fun? Can we please get back to investing?
ReplyDeleteA trade finally worked in my favor. RYWVX closed the 1030 am window +1% (70.73)!
ReplyDelete(Despite the fact that EEM was flatlined @ the time.)
DeleteBought some shares in CGI Group (GIB). They are an IT consulting company out of Montreal that did the Obamacare web site. They are a well run company who are expanding into Europe and trade at 11 times next year's earnings. They are a good steady grower, one of those GARP type companies, and their shares are down because people think they will have a tough time due to the Obamacare, but reality is this will be forgotten and their business will grow.
ReplyDeleteGood writeup in the Globe on it if it interests:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/investors-remain-cautious-on-a-cgi-false-risk/article17925125/
(a) Closed QQQ @ 84.5x on the gap up open for a +0.5% gain.
ReplyDelete(b) Closed RYWVX @ the 1030 am est window for a +1% gain (70.73 versus Friday's close of 70.06). Somewhat unexpected, as EEM was flatlined at 1030. So the gain was likely due to morning strength in Brazil. EEM has since pulled back -0.5%, so you could say I dodged yet another bullet.
(c) Unfortunately, RYOCX (Rydex Nasdaq 100) + RYEUX (Rydex Europe) close only @ the 345 pm est window, and based on current market action I'm unlikely to capture the kind of gains seen earlier todayt (intraday highs for QQQ/ VGK=85.22 (+1.3%)/ 58.58 (+0.6%). QQQ/ VGK (Europe) currently slightly above water 84.15 (+0.05%)/ 58.27 (+0.11%). I'll be happy to end in breakeven territory.
(d) Reopening a small position in RSX (Russia) on today's -3.6% decline.
So far a 'dead cat' bounce. Back to mainly cash + a slightly bearish stance.
Wow, markets are poised for a strong close.
DeleteMy kind of getaway!
DeleteBTCS - This baby roaring back to life?
ReplyDeleteLong lnkd now date enph and feye into the close. All fairly close to session lows.
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking most are expecting more drubbing for the momentum names. However the nasdaq managed to pull back to the feb lows so this seems like a ver logical spot to try some of them. Biggest positions are lnkd and now
DeleteLong now at $49.4 lnkd at $165.6 feye at $48.4 enph at $7.2 also bought bib after hours and yndx after hours. About 50% long now. I like the washed out stocks for a bounce. I like enph and date as longer term plays.
DeleteTBT - ????
ReplyDeleteOpened a very small position in ZNGA after hours @ 4.03. I think the beating has ended for now.
ReplyDeletehttp://m.bnn.ca/article?itemId=1079293&feedId=455
ReplyDeleteSmart Canadian Fund Manager says he says AA over $30 in 2 or 3 years - would be nice and I think not unreasonable.
Only concern I have in short/medium term is the rsi_ema monthly reading is higher than at any pt over the past 20 years
DeleteBought a 50% position in sds after hrs at $29.51. Good chance we gap down tmrw
ReplyDeleteSold feye for a $80 gain. Sold 1/3 of now at $49.8 after hrs
DeleteI had a stink bid for HIMX @ 9.05 after hours that filled.
ReplyDeletePart of reason I took a big position in sds is two fold:
ReplyDelete1-the end of day spike was prob short covering
2-$cpce and $cpc on stockcharts are posted after the close and both dropped significantly. That means ppl are STILL buying dips. They need to be blown out.
Also the VIX spiked down. This is all bearish IMO.
I sold 1/2 of lnkd ah as well
Just going by feeling, it feels like we have a reasonable chance that Friday was the low for a while and will support the next run up.
DeleteThe bounce early last week felt too soon to be the bottom.
Feelings aren't great for investing though.
Feelings are great for investing! Haha.
DeleteRe AA, it has had a great run and I was thinking before the hard part with this stock may be staying in it to make big $ over the next few years as it does seem like it would be a good time to take some profits.
ReplyDeletehttps://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/michael-santoli/market-selloff-will-stop-when-the--smart-money--quits-selling-152313335.html?soc_src=mediacontentstory
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-04-14/if-you-thought-china-s-air-was-bad-try-the-water
ReplyDeleteI can barely taste the chromium anymore and I'm pretty sure there's no cadmium since the latter comes from the green energy industry that never took hold in the US until after briefly conquering China.
DeleteVE was my China Superfund cleanup stock, BTW.
Delete"GOOG: Google buys solar-powered drone maker Titan Aerospace"
ReplyDeleteAm I dreaming, living in a time warped parallel universe, or didn't this already happen at least a week ago?
That was FB thinking of buying them. I'm guessing GOOG was tired of FB getting the pub and decided to bitch slap them.
DeleteOkay, thanks for setting me straight, so it's a battle between these guys to see who can buy up the universe the guy who dies with the most toys wins.
DeleteDream large!
Now if AMZN can just figure out how to deliver packages using drones (solar powered ones of course) they can bypass UPS's hydrogen powered delivery trucks.
AMZN's next thing is payments.
DeleteNow I know how Canadians really invest - the top story on the Globe and Mail (Canada's WSJ):
ReplyDeleteApril 15: Your daily horoscope
Top story is your horoscope? Must not be much going on! :)
DeleteReading Hussman's letter this week and he is talking about removing his hedges and that investors should not be shocked. Says it is not a nearterm thing, but seems to be setting investors up for him turning bullish.
ReplyDeleteIf this did happen, I would see it as constructive for the market as he is very much numbers based and it would not be the case of the last stubborn bear throwing in the towel. In fact, I would probably see this as a good place to add as the market sets up for the second half of this bull run we are currently in.
That makes sense, should I worry? :)
DeleteNot sure how to describe GMO's insider buying yesterday.
ReplyDeleteI see April 10th buying of ~$111,000, not huge but maybe their means are limited.
DeleteGEVO - Off 20% here!
ReplyDeleteDUST/TZA - Two big winners so far.
ReplyDeleteMaybe Hussman should hang onto his shorts awhile longer...
ReplyDeleteI hope he capitulates. That would be a sure sign of a top.
DeleteSold rest of my lnkd now yndx and bib at the open. Sold sds at 29.6
MS - Neutral -> Buy
ReplyDeleteDon't fly your drone around an auto accident scene photographing the wreckage b/c the rescue choppers need the airspace.
ReplyDeleteKyle Bass on CNBC talking up the business case for GM. Said its their largest position:
ReplyDeletehttps://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/video/cnbc/SIG=110mfa5qs/*http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000267313&__source=yahoo%7cheadline%7cquote%7cvideo%7c&par=yahoo
Maybe he sold BSBR and bought GM.... :p
DeleteAside: Shrimp - Shortage of this seafood.
So where's SPX 1814 ????
ReplyDeleteYellen was flapping her gums again today, I hear.
ReplyDeleteSilver hasn't been this low in a while has it?
ReplyDeleteConsidering bears can't seem to take out BAC or SPX 1814, it must be time to get long. Probably time to buy RTH as well, if you're inclined, a higher low so far today.
ReplyDeleteAdded some more GM and reduced my average cost.
ReplyDeleteI'm actually liking this market in that a lot of stocks are going down and people seem to be getting uptight about the Nasdaq and momo stocks, but my portfolio is pretty much flatlining. Makes me think that when we do start up, my stocks will be well positioned.
at $32.53
DeleteGood job so far man, looks like the gap down might close today, amazing it didn't take longer. Looks like new bears are late to the party.
DeleteTUR - Looks like a support back-test in progress, huh?
ReplyDeleteIt had such a big move off the bottom, it was almost certain to have some sort of a pullback. Worth keeping an eye on though to see where it goes from here.
Delete$50.22 would meet the 80/20 guidelines... Maybe they can push it down another couple dollars more for me?
DeleteIBB, on its weekly trendline from 9 Nov 12 lows, possible hold here.
ReplyDeletethinkin about a day or two trade into close
LT trendline all the way back to 170
Pretty decent idea, huge short float.... :)
DeleteTSLA vs PLUG - Which chart looks better? Wondering here if PLUG is actually going hydrogen or if they intend on running those fork lifts on dirty gas? Hydrogen has it's health benefits b/c there's no carbon monoxide emissions but you can burn that hydrogen in an internal combustion engine too. Wonder if this really is about human health hazards from carbon emissions pollution in enclosed warehouse areas?
ReplyDeleteIf carbon emissions are such an issue, why aren't nuclear stocks rallying? CCJ might be a good entry near here on this test of support, eh? I guess URG is probably ready to rock, too.
I see a lot of green stocks, BALT/XLF/BAC/PKX..... So where'd the bears go, lost their nerve or what?
ReplyDeleteGOOG - These guys are about to expand the internet to all corners of the planet, aren't they?
ReplyDeleteSorta seems like the big boys have had their way with margined speculators, don't it?
ReplyDeleteBALT - $6.19 remains the line in the sand, looks like.
ReplyDeleteTrump - A natural, this guy already wears a helmet!
ReplyDeleteARO - Not sure what to think of that....but at this point $5.11 is the line in the sand as far as I'm concerned.
ReplyDeleteWaaahhhhooo!!! :) ????
ReplyDeleteLong SDS after hours at $28.94
ReplyDeleteFully expecting to be wrong on this. My thinking is pretty simple:
Delete(1) I saw gold peel off hard overnight + India and China drop. Figured a pop was coming in the US markets since they are trading opposite right now. At +40 pts from the lows, the S&P futures "may" have just experienced another short squeeze. If not it gaps higher tomorrow and I'll be covering SDS 3% lower...so be it. If it was a short squeeze then I see a good sharp drop coming in the next few days.
(2) VIX is still barely above its recent lows at 15.6. Put/call ratios are near lows. Traders are getting rewarded for buy dips. I still think a reversal of that is in order this year even if we head higher.
At this point I'm only short term trading stuff when I get a chance since I've been really busy.
I kinda like it. Thinking about it.
DeleteI think low inflation counteracted the ongoing situation in Ukrane.
DeleteIn terms of gold's move, I mean.
DeleteCSX reported, right? I hear their intermodal was off the hook which compensated for lower coal shipments and difficult weather.
ReplyDeleteWho makes those truck trailer chassis?
Might be time to start dusting off the thesis on AMNF again.
ReplyDeleteMGIC has held in like a champ by the way.
I bought a little chunk of DATE at $5.95 avg today. I'm super bullish on this sucker longer term. I think it's a steady grower in a huge market with a leadership position and a huge cash balance. Management seems very conservative and from what I can tell I trust them as much as I can trust a Chinese company. They trade at around 14 times trailing earnings and are growing around 20% top line. They have about $3 a share in cash and have paid out a $0.25ish per share dividend each of the past 2 years. That equates to a 4% dividend on the current price and that should grow to 5% or so next year. I think they're an obvious takeover candidate by the larger China players. Its not a huge position for me (about 5%)
Some pretty serious selling in AMNF.
ReplyDeleteRight now, it has a trailing p/e of 15, which is pretty good for a consumer staple type stock, but given that it is an OTC stock and small, I think we could get it cheaper. If it could get down to around $1.20, then if we assume their earnings growth for 2014 is the same as 2013 (16%), then we'd be getting it at about 10 times earnings.
That would seem a very good risk/reward entry point for a small company like this with it's good growth history and potential.
MGIC I'm out of. It's a tough call as they are executing well, have good growth and management is very good. But at a 20 p/e, it's too risky for me as I could see a fast drop on bad news / weak quarter.
The thing that sucks about owning a stock like GM which is going through all this mess is that I am constantly getting stuff from my news feed which is just rehashes over and over again with very little incremental value.
ReplyDeleteBetter get a double out of it!
Have you considered ARO and passed on it? Was wondering what your thoughts were.
DeleteSome crazy price action out there, caught a few minutes of Cramer's show and he was discussing it but I was nearly about to pass out so only caught the surface.
DeleteCP, I'm not very good at stocks like ARO. I think you have to be good at identifying fashion trends and be able to figure out whether ARO is "cool" anymore.
DeleteBranded t-shirts seem to be out now and retailers like H&M seem to be taking share, but probably your best way to find out is to ask a teenage girl.
Right, I meant from a balance sheet perspective actually, I'm pretty sure they can refocus their fashion targets as necessary(perhaps their cap-ex blew out doing this?). The brand itself, I suspect is undervalued.
DeleteBALT - Having a great morning, LOL, speculating on a BDI bottom or playing games?
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry Index (BDI) -34 936
SODA - Shorts covering?
ReplyDeleteRe ARO, I would say their balance sheet is OK, but they better not take too long to turn things around. Even though they had a well run company for years, they had a huge drop off last year and the problem with fashion companies is knowing if it is a short or long term thing. If they can turn things around this year, the balance sheet will be fine, but if it takes 3 years, it could be big trouble.
ReplyDeleteOkay, thanks for your insight, BB
DeleteFrom Morningstar:
DeleteWe also will be watching the company's cash cushion closely. We think the $150 million in financing secured from Sycamore at a 6.5% interest rate through a convertible preferred stock deal was rather steep. In addition, although it put the company in a comfortable cash position now, we think consulting fees, possible accelerated store closures, marketing, store renovations, and continued free cash flow declines could drain it. We worry that liquidity issues could limit necessary investments in the long run and note that capex was cut to $22 million in 2014 from $84 million in 2013.
Ultimately, we think Aeropostale either needs to develop strong enough sub-brands to command pricing power or must develop enough of a cost advantage to compete with fast-fashion brands on core merchandise. Either way, we think it will take time to make the necessary changes and regrow market share. We would remain on the sidelines for this process.
Yep, sounds about right.
DeleteCSX - BACML -> $33
CSX could be a good buy here. They trade at a low valuation because so much of their revenue is tied to coal, but you think they should be able to grow their non-coal business (but I haven't looked). I've owned UNP for a long time now and continue to hold and think the rail business is in a great place these days.
DeleteYep, what I'm trying to do is decide if I want to broaden my exposure (via an GM/CSX/?) or add to one/both of my existing FLWS/BSBR positions.
DeleteI like the BSBR dividend, think maybe it's unsustainability is priced in but I have a vision that global economies are strengthening and the tailwinds are about to kick in.
Dunno what's up with BAC lately, but maybe I get another whack at $7?
BMY - Coming off a low.
ReplyDeleteChart Talk: Volume Intensity Model flips back to bullish
ReplyDelete12 minutes ago
Volume Intensity Model back to bullish with Accumulation back above Distribution - supports case for a tactical rally. Stock Charts: 90-day breakouts: CNS, CXO, ROIC, RUSHA, SLB (Technical Titan) & TSM.
Somehow I get the feeling something was decided yesterday, not sure what it was though.
ReplyDeleteOn vacation. Checking in to say I disagree with jesse's latest tweets. He may well be correct in leaning bullish, but I think we head lower. Then again I'm not following markets closely right now. In any case, dumped all remaining positions (in one case, the remains of a position in HIMX) this morning. Good luck to all. Glad I missed yesterday's volatility.
ReplyDeleteJesse's time horizon may be measured in hours for all I know, hard to say.
DeleteHDGE @ 12.97.
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Quite a hectic day yesterday as well, fake breakdown?
ReplyDeleteOkay, so did you guys catch what Cramer was saying yesterday about how "growth" stocks should not have been crashing lately due to something about interest rates and to be on the lookout for the effects (things not to be long, low growth?) of rising rates?
SQNM - Big move up coming, maybe, maybe, maybe?
BSBR - SOAB, now I regret not adding, LOL!!! :)
ReplyDeleteSo today's departure from virtual reality is the world isn't quite prepared to go to hell in a handbasket?
ReplyDeleteStock market is basically flat since year end. I think it has just been working off excesses from last year's huge run as seen in the big pullbacks in last year's big winners.
ReplyDeleteBut the other reality is the economy is getting better and many stocks are still not expensive and the overall S&P 500 is reasonably valued.
One thing Cara talked about, which I do agree with, is constantly upgrading your portfolio and working to lower your cost basis. I think that type of approach works in the current market.
Jesse 1, 2nd 0.
ReplyDeleteYour on vacation - go grab a Sam Adams!
DeleteDefinitely worth a read:
ReplyDeleteThe current Industrial Production trend which I think is easy to see in the chart, suggests that an investor turn towards a more positive market psychology should be anticipated. Higher stock prices should be anticipated.
http://www.valueplays.net/2014/04/16/economy-one-chart/
You can read this article if you want (it's about how hard it is to be a stock picker), but more interesting is it shows how tough a year 2008 actually was - only 5% of S&P stocks up. Last year had a record high 93% up.
ReplyDeleteIt also shows that only 3 of the last 35 years has there been less than 40% of stocks up.
The other interesting thing is other 3 times we've had years of +85% or more, the next year was also very good.
http://pensionpartners.com/blog/
Hippity-hoppity!
ReplyDeleteYELP, Yelp???
ReplyDeleteI added a little more date today and bought some pbr at 5.95 and 13.45. Still holding enph around 7.1 avg and sds at 28.94
ReplyDeleteToday Yellen reversed course from her previous 6 month timeline for tapering and extended it to up to 2 years? Of course I didn't hear about this until well after market close.
ReplyDeleteIBM blamed their miss on weak emerging markets, another consecutive miss?
ReplyDeleteGOOG - Having difficulty monetizing/penetrating the mobile ads market?
Can you imagine the disbelief MITK holders will feel if it breaks 3.30 and the market keeps going higher?
ReplyDeleteI've got a sweet sale going on pre-sharpened Chicken shivs.
DeletePXLW...fun trading there.
ReplyDeleteIIM - Going to $16.ish on the bull flag?
ReplyDeleteSome others I like:
ReplyDeleteXUE
SNE
OUTR (again)...but look at this long term chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=OUTR+Interactive#symbol=OUTR;range=. I know, I know, DVDs are history. But this trades at 10X earnings and cash flow and shares have fallen by 10% in the past 2 years. They're just printing $$.
DVD's are history? What portable media took their place?
DeleteUmm, what's the short float look like?
DeleteNetflix is the DVD killer. I think the majority of people don't use streaming though.
Delete32% of outr float is short
We've switched to streaming via AMZN because it's free with prime...I should say the kids have.
Deleteactually thats a good point mark. we did that too but we only watch on the laptop so the screen isn't big enough. plus hooking up the laptop to the tv is kind of a pain in the butt
DeleteWhy wouldn't people use streaming? I'm still not convinced the redbox is doomed though, even considering the insider sales and zero institutional participation.
DeleteI think AMZN long term is as good or better than GOOG, or is the mote too narrow and look for JCP,etc. to take an interest?
Looking at the index ETF;s this morning, looks like Nasdaq and smallcaps down and broad market flat.
ReplyDeleteSeems like the rotation is continuing.
I cleared out of the PBR around breakeven. Added a litle more ENPH and DATE today.
ReplyDeleteWhat about GOOG? We never talk about that one. As a serious LT hold I like it better than AAPL.
ReplyDeleteGOOG has the widest moat out of any company out there.
DeleteI like it much better. I almost bought it in 2012, but now it has doubled.
DeleteMy big concern with them is if they are going to start hitting the law of diminishing returns as they are so large now, but they sure are doing a lot of things really well and I could see it going much higher.
You guys should look at yndx or bidu. Same businesses but better valuations and growth. I bought some yndx today actually
DeleteYndx said it could see a hiccup due to Russian sanctions / Ukraine issues but longer term they will do well because search is a golden biz to be in especially if ur a leader in your market. It's down almost 40% the past 2 months so you're getting it at a discount
DeleteI've been dying to get into the solar space in some capacity but couldn't get myself to chase the larger players (although CSIQ seems awesome right now for a trade). I finally bit the bullet on ENPH the past few days and have a 10% position in it at $7.3.
ReplyDeleteNRG is good at masquerading as a solar company.
DeleteANGO - Recovering smoothly.
ReplyDeleteI bet tomorrow SPX is flat.
AGCO - This one has closed the gap down and retaken the 200SMA
ReplyDeleteFLWS - I knew this one would get whacked following especially yesterday's encounter with the upper BB, so why didn't I sell the close for a reload on weakness?
ReplyDeleteLong TZOO at $17.78
ReplyDeleteENPH - An internet-connected solar array does have a certain cool-factor to it, is there an actual demo address available where we can actually watch one feeding tons of power into the grid?
ReplyDeleteThey have some on their website and I've seen some on other outlets. The CEO was on Bloomberg not too long ago.
DeleteForgot to mention that I sold my SDS earlier at $28.51 in capitulation. Hard to ignore the market's strength and was seeing too many compelling at least short term setups. Some of these solid businesses were down 15 to 40% in a matter of weeks and I feel like the ones that I bought were all at reasonable valuations.
ReplyDeleteI don't know if I have the guts to hold for more than a short swing trade on these.
DeleteStill holding a fairly large cash position: about 40%
DeleteI think a lot of people are doing this too, though, which compelled me to get off my ass and do some buying.
DeleteStill on my assignment here
DeleteLong BIB at $70.7
ReplyDeleteLong FIG at $7.44
ReplyDeleteInteresting report showing the percentage of money allocated to equities in 2012 (last year) was as low as it's ever been. It shows the relative value of all asset classes according to the global financial investment community".
ReplyDeleteSo, if all correct, certainly implies a tailwind for years in stocks as this gets back to a more normal range. Or I guess alternatively, you could say other assets like bonds are overvalued and will drop. Either way, it certainly does not imply a major top in stocks any time soon.
http://mebfaber.com/2014/04/16/the-global-market-portfolio-2/
Amazing how effective the wolf cries still are...
DeleteSilver - Perhaps on a very long time horizon, it could make $125, perhaps a couple of decades?
ReplyDeleteLong DANG at $12.55.
ReplyDeleteDamn YNDX is ripping higher today. Wish I loaded the boat.
ReplyDeleteSold yndx at 29.96. Hard to pass up that one day gain
DeleteGEVO - Nice relief rally.
ReplyDeleteOkay, I'm already preparing myself for more misleading BS starting first thing Monday morning, just as the Earth orbits the Sun I know there'll be another load of it to deal with.
ReplyDeleteDid you read any more about enph?
DeleteThis is my homework assignment for the weekend, at the moment I'm taking a break from this week's BS. I don't see a mote, my real concern remains the same for ENPH, what happens when GE introduces their inverter?
DeleteMUX - Maybe this one gives us a new low this year?
ReplyDeleteWe've talked about TZOO for a long time. The story is not that complicated. It's a cheap asset in terms of total traffic to its sites. They're building out a hotel booking platform which will most likely greatly increase conversion rate of its traffic (right now they have one of the worst conversion rates because they have no booking platforms and people just leave because TZOO doesn't allow customers to book hotel stays on their site (instead they redirect those people to other 3rd party sites or tell them to call the hotels which is so 1990's). I've been waiting to get in at some point in anticipation of this platform being rolled out but the price seemed too high to me. This miss today provides an excellent opportunity in my opinion. The company trades at around 14X this past quarter's EPS run rate. Material booking revenues should start hitting the top line in Q3 as they recognize revenues when the stay occurs (not when it is booked).
ReplyDeleteI think this could be a really tremendous entry point around here given the valuation being reasonable and there is definitely panic in the trading of the stock RSI(7) is at 6 which is almost always a great entry point...barring a chapter 11 filing (TZOO has solid positive cash flow and around 1/4 of market cap in cash).
Also, Q1 saw $0.31 EPS but they had about $0.04 in charges related to the booking platform. They will have another $0.05 next quarter. This gives the appearance of a significant miss on EPS but it wasn't really.
DeleteRead the bullet points in page 17 carefully:
Deletehttp://files.shareholder.com/downloads/TZOO/3100118979x0x720433/bf4c3c3a-5131-446c-a95b-e51129d9415c/Travelzoo_webcast_presentation_01-23-14.pdf
Think about these limitations to the current business model right now. I think this could provide significant upside longer term for TZOO if they can get it right. This is a significant amount of lost revenue from the traffic they get to their site.
I'm liking the chart, along with the fact management hasn't been dumping and tutes have been adding (according to finviz).
DeleteI'm submitting this as my contribution in advance, for our next comment cleanser:
ReplyDeletehttp://3.bp.blogspot.com/-J0xAQDYVMfc/U0dTn3fYfAI/AAAAAAAAJcE/u4L9JjxrpOQ/s1600/4-women-do-it-right-the-first-time-funny-quotes.jpg
Along with this:
https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-wBB5niF-nNs/Tx5uYM8Sp8I/AAAAAAAAnZ0/h7FqNyNgL9c/w800-h800/Man%2Bvs%2BWoman.jpeg
I can't figure out what the small blue dial on the far left does?? Maybe that's my problem.
DeleteBack and forth with Yellen = up and down. A couple of FED Chairman alternatives might be Ron Popeil, he could slice and dice the balance sheet into easy payments. Or perhaps Jerry Springer, imagine how the FED meetings might go with him in charge? :)
DeleteRe TZOO, their balance sheet looks good and they are now at a below market-multiple on their forward P/E. They are generating cash and bought back a whack of shares (in hind sight, it may have been better to wait). But it looks like they are financially prudent and have actually bought back $10 million more in stock than they issued and their value is all in the retained earnings of the company - I'd have to go back through their early filings to make sure, but sure looks like management is shareholder friendly. And no way they are close to bankrupcy.
ReplyDeleteSo, then the 2 questions I would ask are:
1. Will this booking platform work and will they get it to market in time or are sites like booking.com becoming the google of the travel industry? Their revenues were down, especially in north america, and booking.com does seem to be going after Europe more where TZOO is still strong.
2. When will be the right time to buy? You're probably right that it's good for a bounce now or a few days from now, but if they have another bad quarter or 2 getting this rolled out, I could see people getting really negative and maybe the stock down near $10.
Let us know what you decide to do.
BB - It's tough to say exactly when the right time to buy is, of course. Booking.com has been a competitor for years...why would it all of a sudden be an issue for TZOO?
DeleteThe surface stats look weak but you have to consider a few things:
(1) $-22 Million one time expense knocked earnings to a loss in 2013. Excluding that they did about $16 Million in Net Income and ROE is around 35%.
(2) Balance sheet is solid and doesn't have any goodwill / intangibles which most of these online players have
(3) They pared down advertising expenses as they spent more on building out this new booking platform. Even if the platform doesn't bring in new traffic I think the odds of them converting more users to buyers is pretty high as they have a lot of holes in their website traffic flow right now.
Tough to say what the downside is. I guess it could always go down to $10 but you have to consider the valuation relative to the traffic they generate:
http://www.ebizmba.com/articles/travel-websites
If you just looked at market cap per unique visitors you would see that TZOO is way below its competitors. Here are the metrics:
PCLN: $1,145.64 per unique visitor
EXPE: $375.20 per uv
TRIP: $320.79 per uv
OWW: $75.27 per uv
TZOO: $37.14 per uv
Also Kayak.com is listed here:
Deletehttp://www.tnooz.com/article/cheapoair-leaps-into-leading-trio-spots-top-us-travel-websites-august-2013/
8th most trafficked site just ahead of TZOO. They were purchased for $1.8 Billion by PCLN in November 2012 when all of the other players in this sector were trading at 1/2 of what they are now. So lets say KYAK would be worth $3.6 Billion right now standalone. They don't even generate 2X the traffic that TZOO does yet TZOO is worth less than 1/10th that valuation. All of this has to do with the way TZOO monetizes its traffic. So the best is that they finally figure out how to do this. I would have to think that at some point they say screw it with the model they're pursuing right now and just go after the booking model like the others. Allow visitors to book stays for hotels, airfare etc and the stock goes up 5-fold. I think it's a fairly low risk bet longer term. In the short term yeah sure people could panic and sell it down to $10. But the traffic they generate to their site is worth a lot more.
Meant to say "So the bet is that they finally figure out how to do this." That's what you're doing if you're buying the stock. Either they figure it out or someone else sees value in the traffic they're generating.
DeleteHow about Kayak?
DeleteTOF- Damn dude, I like the DANG play as well.
ReplyDeleteObviously I was wrong today was a half day.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gurufocus.com/news/226615/47-cognitive-biases-investors-may-be-able-to-exploit-
ReplyDeleteBummer... Hailey says she doesn't want to go on a plane, boat, or bus. Too dangerous.
ReplyDeleteRickshaw?
DeleteI'll ask her. You willing to be the 'driver'?
DeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteI wonder if booking.com is becoming the Google of travel bookings.. GOOGLE has become the standard in search technology and, even though BING was pretty much in same league with their new technology, nobody switched as they are defaulted to Google and don't see a reason to change.
My concern would be that booking.com is becoming the defacto standard in Europe, where TZOO is still strong and will take share. TZOO is already losing market share in the US. It seems the type of industry where the best selection and technology wins. It will be hard for TZOO to compete on those 2 levels, even with a booking engine.
http://www.phocuswright.com/research_updates/europes-ota-market-ripe-for-consolidation-as-booking-expedia-battle-for-share
http://www.tnooz.com/article/booking-com-is-thrashing-expedia-in-europe-says-survey/
One thing I've been doing lately is reading through the annual reports of the big winners over the past 15 years to get a sense of what made them successful. I was reading through the 1999 to 2004 reports for Priceline and you can see how it took them several years to get their model right. In 2003 they changed their business model from a name your price only model to one where customers could purchase tickets at fixed prices as well. They realized that they were not monetizing their traffic as well as they could have and despite the fixed price tickets cannabilizing their name your price tickets they found that margins overall increased as a result.
DeleteI think being long TZOO isn't about how they will beat the big players at their own game, grab market share, and become a major player as well. Plus, as they currently stand they don't compete directly with the others: they specialize in offering special packaged deals that customers can't get elsewhere. However, in my opinion it's really about how they still get a significant share of traffic to their site and are unable to monetize it the way all of the other players are. I think they see the writing on the wall. If you think about the average customer that comes to their site looking for a vacation package...let's say they really like a vacation package at a place that looks good but the offer isn't available on the dates they want to travel. In this instance the customer can't book with that place through Travelzoo. They have to call them directly or go to their website and that potential sale is gone forever from TZOO. There are other examples like this where there are significant holes in their site flow where traffic leaves and never comes back. They have a lot of room to improve their monetization efforts IMO and that's where the value in being long their stock comes into play.
Maybe they go down to $10 first...who knows? But I think there's a reasonable chance they get it right at some point and the stock goes up a lot.
That's a really smart idea - going back through annual reports for current winners. I will have to try that.
DeleteI do agree that if they can make this work and gain market share, the stock will do great. It's definitely worth watching.