Saturday, July 26, 2014

7/26/14 The 'Give Up'

(a) Semis give up almost two months of gains in 3 days:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESOX+Interactive#symbol=%5ESOX;range=3m

(b) Housing has given up two months of gains:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EHGX+Interactive#symbol=%5EHGX;range=3m

(c) Retailers likewise:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=XRT+Interactive#symbol=XRT;range=3m

(d) SNDK (Sandisk), a notable outperformer in the Semi sector, gave up 2 months of gains in one day:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SNDK+Interactive#symbol=SNDK;range=3m

(e) AMZN (Amazon) gave up 2 months of gains in one day:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AMZN+Interactive#symbol=AMZN;range=

At some point it starts to add up.

My point here, however, is that prices usually take the elevator on the way down.




212 comments:

  1. Cash for 'trash:'

    We've been cleaning out our garage. Let me pass along two sites that offer alternatives to the usual giving/throwing away of 'stuff:'

    (a) gazelle.com will pay cash for your used cellphones. Thinking of upgrading to an iPhone 6? They offer $320 for a used 5s 16GB in good condition.
    (b) decluttr.com will pay cash for used CDs and DVDs. You can even download an app that turns your smartphone camera into a barcode reader to help price your items.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Jesse just sent out another letter.

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  3. Opened a very small position in UGAZ at Friday's close.

    I don't think it's possible to trade NGas based on the usual technicals. Can you detect a basing pattern in this chart?

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ugaz

    I can't. I can only 'size down' and hope to catch a turn-around.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Bears should be careful with tza here. Just feels like an epic rally is coming perhaps before the face plant

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I agree and would say you want to be maintain at least a 50% equity position in the market. You can trade around it going up and down based on more short term factors, but the broad trend is up and I'd bet a lot that top-calling in this bull market has cost most people more money than they lost in the 2008/2009 bear.

      Delete
  5. BXE - Does this one seem more expensive than, say, BP?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nice wet kiss with lower BB, this stock has me wondering if a substantial tumble isn't in the cards.

      I found Jesse's email but man, I'm not sure I wanna try opening the PDF, I never knew someone who runs 80mi a week or hangs out in wilderness Yoga training camps.

      Delete
  6. LEJU just continues to run. This one is going to $30+ if you just look at comparison valuations relative to Z/TRLA and even to SFUN.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You nailed this one bro. Wish I'd followed on that sucker.

      Delete
    2. I think it has the chance to pull a major move higher if earnings are solid and the Zillow partnership gets launched.

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    3. The float is tiny. They only issued 11 million shares in the IPO and I read that Fidelity owns 1 million of it. Presumably other institutions have been buying as well so it could, with the right news, have an epic upside move.

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    4. Thanks. I have some time today I'll take a closer look.

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    5. if not then its still cheap and a good speculative play

      Delete
  7. MITK- I honestly thought this one might have moved. I guess everyone has lost any faith in Jimmy. Can't blame them. 4M in rev. and 1M in stock comp.

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  8. Jiggy market. Especially UGAZ!

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  9. PMs - Just checked, silver/gold have a long rally ahead to reach $150/$50Gazillion.

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  10. Seems to me like there are a lot of good risk / reward setups in stocks I follow.

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  11. GIB (CGI Group) reporting on the 30th. Didn't realize, but from TD - should get a bit of short squeeze if earnings are good:

    The short position in the U.S. remains high at 21.2mm (as a
    reminder, it was 9.3mm in December 2013). We believe that the major
    short theses are: 1) earnings will be pressured as accrual accounting from
    the Logica deal rolls off — we expect confidence in FY2015 cash flow to
    make this position increasingly untenable; and 2) the U.S. brand is
    damaged from the health exchange business — we expect to see a
    rebound in U.S. bookings in future quarters.

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  12. Some annualized returns for the market (excluding dividends):
    5 year: 14.87%
    10 year: 6.18%
    15 year: 2.55%
    20 year: 7.60%

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  13. If I were a betting man I would place a heavy bet on call options of EWT that expire at least 6 months from now. I don't know anything about the demographics or economy or whatever, but I see a 25 year chart on the verge of a major breakout and that is extremely bullish looking. Give it maybe 12 or 18 months (Jan 16 calls?) and I wouldn't be surprised to see EWT at $24+. 8-bagger on those January 2016 calls with a $16 strike.

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    Replies
    1. This was my thought when I was looking at the Taipex reverse pretty hard to the downside tonight. I think it's a fakeout.

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    2. What? Pantry art bores you?

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    3. Hahaha. Yes.

      Wait what's the reference from?

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    4. I coined the phrase and it's something my clients do.

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    5. Okay, they paint or have murals painted in their pantry? I was being funny with the ketchup bottle explosion. I've been looking for someone who paints indoor murals since I built this house.

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  14. GEVO - POW! They've been buying corn, I think.

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  15. PCP - Ouch, looks like HXL's chart.

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  16. BXE - Was gonna add at $7.78 but perhaps it's best to wait for $5?

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  17. Pantry Art- I have clients who buy products they think have attractive packaging to 'display' on their shelves knowing they will never use it. Pantry Art.



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    Replies
    1. Such as what, do they display? I wasn't aware there were any attractive packages out there anymore, perhaps I shop in too many "bargain" stores. I do think some store brands are better than name brands.

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    2. They usually buy things that have a colorful glass etc. I remember one that was a drink they didn't like but liked the color. Stuff like that.

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    3. Pantryart.com is available for sale.

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    4. Okay I gotcha! I have a can of "Kick Ass" energy drink on my pantry shelf somewhere, and a 6-pack bottle holder of Moose Drool+ others in there somewhere.

      The beer and Moose Drool bottles are gone though, perhaps I shouldn't have polished them all off sitting around the campfire before leaving Yellowstone....

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    5. I really appreciate stuff like that though, I've also been looking for ways to etch a wildlife scene in the wood stove glass window.

      Delete
  18. BXE - Hell, I had no idea my stink bid would be hit, so I guess I added at $7.64

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  19. On bad days, there's usually at least 2nd wave down.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well, we've had a whole string of bad days, seems the tide turned and this thing may have holes in the bilge?

      Delete
  20. ROLL - More like drop, or fall with a splat and no steel ball bounce.

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  21. GM - Beginning to look like a bull flag.

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  22. LEJU. One allotment opened 13.85, closed 14.40. 2nd allotment opened 14.09, still holding.

    EJ opened 11.68, closed 11.79.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Wife reopened WFM last night @ 36.53, closed today > a buck/share higher.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Pantryart.com....There's money to be made here.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not surprising, alcohol products offer the most interesting bottles/colors.

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    2. Napkins work great too. Switch them around with the seasons.

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    3. Seasonal Napkins - You just gave me an idea for Christmas cards! Thanks! :)

      Delete
  25. Closing second allotment of LEJU @ 13.97.

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    Replies
    1. ye of little faith!

      just kidding, nice trade.

      Delete
  26. Taking another stab @ RYJUX (Rydex Inverse Government Long Bond) at the close. I don't think the US markets are ready to crash just yet

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  27. KB - Just noticed this is the one I shoulda entered.

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  28. I know a lot of people are focused on TWTR after hours but I'm more interested in X. I wish I went long when I mentioned it the other day but I think it bodes well for the market...at least the one I'm focused on (ex USA).

    "For Q3, the company said, "We expect operating income for our reportable segments and Other Businesses to increase significantly over the second quarter, as we return to normal operating levels. We continue to earn the right to grow as the Carnegie Way transformation allows us to better meet our customers' needs and improves our earnings power."

    I think the market is just going through a shakeout phase here. From the traders comments and pundit comments that I read there is still a large amount of skepticism about the market which tells me we could very well just grind our way higher this year and end with +12 to 15% gains.

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  29. Ultimately, though, I think making money is going to be easier overseas for the remainder of the year. I think the dollar will continue to strengthen as tapering comes to a close and that should keep somewhat of a lid on earnings.

    I think the Chinese internet space is going through a melt up phase similar to the 1999 phase for US internet companies, although they are all supposedly profitable. I wouldn't be surprised to see a blowoff phase within the next 6 months or so.

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    Replies
    1. So you actually do think FED intervention has an impact?

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    2. I am only looking at it from the perspective of relative stimulus around the world. We're tapering while many others are stimulating. That's dollar positive I would think.

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  30. Something to keep an eye one. I've been watching the low consumer confidence for a while now as a reason why stocks are probably gonna head higher...today's report suggests that people are piling back into stocks bc consumer conf tends to mirror the overall market, especially around turning points.

    Ryan Detrick
    Get this. Consumer Confidence was up 5.7% from last month. Margin debt was up 5.9%. Both were largest changes in a while. $SPY $STUDY

    ReplyDelete
  31. Remember back when we used to see nearly unanimous negative comments on posts? Read the comments...

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-20--market-correction-has-already-started-150404470.html
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-breadth-divergence-is-a-troubling-sign-2014-07-29?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

    ReplyDelete
  32. TWTR up +30% after hours...

    Where's my 10,000 shares?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To be honest, had I known TWTR was announcing I would have opened a 500-share position. That's still 5 large I left on the table.

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    2. It was trading well heading in. I still don't quite understand the valuation. I guess some day they will generate revenues from re-twotting

      Delete
  33. Turns out LEJU is Shark's stock of the week:

    'The Zillow of China

    'Our Stock of the Week is Leju Holdings (LEJU). The company provides real estate services in China including online listings and advertising. LEJU also handles property transactions and provides other services.

    'The stock did an initial public offering at $10 per share on April 17 and broke to a new high last week from a very nice looking cup-with-handle pattern. Technically the volume was very heavy and there is a good chance of sustained momentum especially with current strength in China stocks.

    'Fundamentally the stock looks quite attractive. It is projected to increase earnings 64% this year to 74 cents and 39% in 2015 to $1.03. Revenues grew 97% last quarter. Earnings may be due soon but I see conflicting dates with Briefing saying August 19. The company is projected to double eps to 16 cents from 8 cents.

    'As always we would not chase the open on Monday morning but would look to buy either on a low volume fade or a higher volume breakout. LEJU is one of the few good looking small caps right now so keep it on your radar.'

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  34. "Remember back when we used to see nearly unanimous negative comments on posts? Read the comments..."

    Really interesting. I think it shows we are moving from the disbelief stage into the optimistic stage of the market. Doesn't mean sell, but means we are moving into the middle of the upcycle. We are still quite a ways from the excitement stage. A correction in Sept/Oct would be good for the market and I am still holding onto cash in anticipation of this, but we could just keep heading upwards instead.

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  35. TOF,

    Did you look at steel companies other than X or is it more of just an industry play?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Honestly, I'm just looking at the charts. But from a fundamental standpoint, I have been reading about stabilization in iron ore prices, a stabilization in China domestic growth, and India laying the groundwork for solid economic growth, all of which should help steel companies...and shippers, but that isn't happening yet. Seems like the shippers will be a 2015/6 story.

      Delete
  36. HXL - See how that bear flag worked out today?

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  37. Hayward I was thinking of, not Livermore.

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  38. Saw a fund manager on BNN. This guy has been around for probably 40 years and had a good long term record, but messed up in the 2008 downturn and stayed negative through 2013. Well, finally this year he has turned bullish and sees nothing in his research which shows the signs of a major top.

    Some might say that this is a bearish sign that the negative managers are turning bullish, but I see this the other way in that the last financial crisis was exceptional and the mainstream market players got whipsawed are still just getting or board with this bull.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sees the current pullback in energy as a buying opp and is looking for 30% - 40% more upside in the largecaps like SU, IMO, so we should see more in smaller stocks like BXE.

      Delete
    2. Also like materials for the improving economy and insurers for rising rates. Still thinks you should be 10% gold. Think the US banks are still very undervalued and will do well once people see the hits to earnings fall off and get more faith in their balance sheets.

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  39. UGAZ on the move again. Down, that is.

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  40. BB- Have time to look at NBL?

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  41. Replies
    1. The whole market. Must be some news in EU?

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    2. No, it feels more like a 'normal' shakedown in EJ/LEJU.

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    3. I almost think EJ/LEJU close at the highs today.

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  42. BXE - $7.48 - This thing must be way overpriced, everyday a new low.

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  43. Mark, I have not looked at NBL. I generally look for Canadian stocks in energy, because it is easier to get info on them here, the selection is better (other than mega-caps and off-shore drillers) and dividends are taxed favourably.

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  44. ARGT (Argentina ETF) might be good for a bounce on the settlement of their debts, although it has moved up some already. If we get a pullback on trouble getting things cleaned up, would be a better entry.

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  45. Governor McDonnell is on radio saying sequestration 2016 is gonna crush the state economy.

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  46. Replies
    1. Second half off @ 11.53. Out of EJ basically flat.

      Delete
    2. Had a feeling we would get a "shark" bite. That's ok. Now is the time to start accumulating LEJU if you're not it in. Add on more weakness. If there's any stock in the market with the potential to go parabolic, this is it in my opinion.

      Delete
    3. EJ "looks" to me like it has a date with destiny at the old highs in the $17 area.

      Delete
  47. NWLI - Out @ $247.02, the risk is simply too high at this point as it appears price is breaking down like so many others.

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  48. Half of LEJU off @ 13.81, then reopened @ 13.65.

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  49. "I almost think EJ/LEJU close at the highs today."
    Not sure about that 2nd but I bet within a week LEJU sees $15+. If today is a decent down day and there's some follow through then it's going to rocket higher out of nowhere. I find it hard to believe the "Chinese Zillow" stays at 13 times fwd EPS for very long, especially when its growing 55% this year and it still hasn't launched its exclusive partnership with Zillow.

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  50. Starter position in SB at $7.37

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    Replies
    1. Added at $7.36, $7.38

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    2. Added at $7.31. I'm playing for a rebound, obviously. I see NM green and am hoping the strength spills over to the others. SB is spiraling down after a long downtrend. Rates were horrible this past quarter so I'm thinking there's a chance people see light at the end of the tunnel (ie rates higher in 2H and in 2015) and step in to support it. Could just be a day trade if it doesn't pan out.

      Delete
  51. Look at that move in X.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Remind me again how that is bearish...

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  52. This is whip em out wednesday. Who's got the balls?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Remember, it's just money. We don't go to our graves with it. Not a bad time to take some calculated risks IMO

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    2. And yes I did add more SB into the depths of hell...right around the shakedown lows from 11/13/13.

      Delete
  53. I dunno what she said, but TBT sure as hell rallied.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. She hasn't said it yet. Hoping whatever she says adds to the selloff in bonds, though.

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    2. Pledged to keep rates low even after tapering.

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    3. Yes the curve was flattening but remains steep.

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  54. I took off half of BALT today. May take the rest off and wait for a better entry point after earnings which will be bad (tomorrow).

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  55. Sold SB and pocketed $400. Could have been better but I reckon if it was going to rally back it would have done so already. Seems that if this is the reaction to the SB earnings then I want to limit my exposure until after the reports have gone by and there's at least some sort of base being built.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is a tough thing to do, selling BALT down about 9% and selling SB because they're so beaten down but shit who knows where they might stabilize at.

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    2. BALT chart looks very similar to BXE chart and look what happened when BXE lost it's little support. Probably smart move.

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    3. I ended up cashing in all of it.

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  56. BXE - At this rate I figure the next downside target is hit in ~10 days.

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  57. (a) The long bond (TLT) selling off -1.5% today. I plan to close RYJUX end of day for what will probably be a +1.5% gain. My opinion is that bonds continue to sell off, but given the choppy nature of markets right now holding any position involves undue stress (I sized up for this trade).
    (b) UGAZ redux-> opened on morning weakness (-5%!), closed for a +2.5% gain.
    (c) Miners (GDX) off -1.3% to 26.42. I'll become interested at 25.5x.
    (d) RSX? Up +2%! That's a missed opp I can live with.

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  58. WFM-> Right. Left half on the table. That's OK.

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  59. VE and WM becoming utilities through biogas power generation?

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  60. Small position in RYTPX (Rydex Inverse 2x S&P 500 Strategy) at the close.

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  61. Maybe the Permian is large enough to keep energy prices low, thus Canadian energy sector such as BXE and SD, etc. have transitioned into a bear market?

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  62. Long YELP after hours. $74.88

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    Replies
    1. Added at $74.6. Just looking for an after hours day trade.

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    2. Sold $75.35. Thought it would run to $78...maybe it does but without me.

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  63. I sold out of my in-laws position in BALT today at $5.24. Just didn't want them to have risk heading into what appeared to be a low probability outcome. Will reassess over the coming weeks. Luckily they had a decent size position in LEJU which has helped them go up to +21% on the year. This is my first go around with actually managing other people's money and I consider it a nice outcome so far given how tricky this year has been. Their volatility is lower than my own portfolio because I have them more diversified. I'm up about double what they are YTD but they never went negative on the year whereas I was down about 8% at one point.

    They have benefited from gains in YELP, LEJU, and BALT (earlier in the year) and gotten hit by losses in XCO, LNKD and BALT since April. Right now I have them in 40% cash but am looking to deploy that in certain favorable setups. I see quite a few interesting setups and am just trying to organize my notes on everything to determine the best strategy. I still want to focus on overseas stuff but I see a pretty good risk/reward scenario with small caps right now which I might take advantage of.

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  64. By the way BXE actually looks pretty interesting here. I don't really know anything about the company but it looks solid.

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  65. Picked up a little YELP after hours @ 75.45. Initially traded 5% higher, then backed down to today's close. I think the news is good, and it will soon be back in the 80s.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Damn, I just read thru tof's trade.

      Delete
    2. Hopefully a few analyst upgrades Thursday morning will kick it back up.

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    3. That and the 20% short float, although I have to think a lot of today's ramp was short-covering.

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    4. I like it. I'm thinking it gets sold off right after the open and then has a nasty upside reversal. At least I think that's how I'm going to trade it tomorrow.

      Not sure if you guys noticed but the Nikkei futures have been on a tear and are nearing their 2013 highs. I think this is extremely bullish for SNE longer term. Still holding it.

      Delete
    5. Impeccable timing, as always. Now bidding 74.90.

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    6. I wouldn't be surprised to see something like this tomorrow:
      Opens down a bit, crashes to $70-$71, closes $82.

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    7. That sounds reasonable. I have room to add around 70. This is one of those 'must own' stocks for many funds. I'm also a weekly (if not daily) user of the product. How many times do we 'Yelp' something?

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    8. The main thing is the earnings beat. Unlike the selloff in WFM after hours (following a 2-day rally), the YELP announcement is highly positive. It was in the eighties barely a month ago. The news was initially enough to blast the stock >81, now it's 74 and change. I don't think it stays there.

      Delete
    9. Well most likely why its down after the spike is because of an apparent slowdown in paying business accounts. Its taking time to get businesses to see the value in paying when they are already on there for free. Yelp is a must use service. Everyone I know uses it. However, I think Google is a stronger force than in other segments like home search where Zillow is the true champ and will be much harder to dethrone. Searching for local businesses etc is right up Google's alley whereas searching for a home is not. So I think the upside could still be great but there are definitely some risks.

      Delete
    10. So the after hours surge was >+7%, and sold off quickly. Shorts, for sure. However, max pain would be to allow them a breather just prior to the real deal on Thursday.

      Delete
    11. Google could just buy the company.

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    12. Can you imagine a +20% squeeze to 90?

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    13. Google tried to buy them in 2010 I believe. They declined their offer. I think Stoppelman wants to do this all by himself. If he can pull it off there's a shitload of upside.

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  66. The news? All good.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/yelp-swings-to-profit-for-first-time-since-ipo-2014-07-30

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    Replies
    1. Highest volume day in past year was 25m. I think we exceed that tomorrow.

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    2. that seems a bit high. the stock ran a good deal today on heavy volume so it might have taken some of the wind out of the sails in the very short term

      Delete
  67. LEJU-> I think China continues up regardless of direction US indexes take. This morning certainly felt like a washout plunge.

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    Replies
    1. I bet we test $13.3 again before zooming higher. I think the total addressable market that LEJU is going after is so ridiculously large that this has the potential to be a ten bagger if everything goes right earnings wise and people actually bid it up to growth stock multiples.

      Delete
  68. It's becoming a stock-picker's market. As much as I hate to use the hackneyed phrase.

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  69. I really wish they had a leveraged etf as a way to play taiwan. just seems so bullish to me longer term and this latest "pullback" is a great entry. EWT is just too dull for me.

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  70. HYLD is flashing a warning sign. Has done so 3 other times in the past 3 years right around market corrections.

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    Replies
    1. JNK is its sister in crime. Not the greatest signs.

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  71. tof- Nice call on early action in YELP. Traded as low as 70.5x. I think it dips below 70, where I plan to add.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah with the market weak in eyeing $68.

      Pcrx had killer earnings

      Delete
  72. Plan to take RYTPX off @ the 1030 am est window.

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    Replies
    1. I suspect US markets may have begun to decline in earnest, but too much whipsaw action right now.

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  73. Remember Deutsche Bank? Will probably set a new 52-wk low near the open.

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  74. BXE - RSI 2 is about 4.15 now, RSI14 is near 40

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  75. PCRX-> There's always a bull market somewhere.

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  76. Bonds continue to take a hit. I think that may be where ATACX is making a mistake, rotating into bonds when 'risk off.'

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  77. RYTPX - Now I know why you loaded that one (Argentina is my assumption).

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  78. TBT is up so I'm having difficulty believing S&P sells off. But, perhaps the Treasury response is a forced one. Interesting the PMs are weak looking while rates increase, no matter what happens PMs get blasted.

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  79. Looks like good news out of SNE with a bump in next year guidance and up pre-market.

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  80. GS says WMT and TGT business model has peeked.

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  81. Gasoline - Bought some yesterday @ $3.06

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  82. BALT- That kinda ruins the chart.

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  83. BALT - Wow, someone dumped! Wish I had a stink bid

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  84. YELP - Down on good news, I'm not impressed but in @ $69..27

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    Replies
    1. I think we're witnessing the requisite gut check for last night's after hours buyers.

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    2. The first half of tof's take played out perfectly. It's the 82 close I'm really hoping to see.

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  85. Doesn't seem like a ton of volume, expected more?

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