Time to get back into the game! Opened positions in BALT/MONIF and added to CYTX. Still holding ARR and that juicy divy. Will look to enter BXE after a little more reading. Thanks for the link BB. Momos got spanked across the board as they should. Hopefully we can get some more pressure to the downside for more quality names.
Re AA, when I look at their long term chart, it is very good other than the financial crisis. That tells me that they know how to run this business well compared to a Inco or US Steel (if those charts are still around). They must be managing the commodity cycles well to avoid the major peaks and troughs. So there move into higher end components is probably well though out and will pay off.
ReplyDeleteThose all yours Mark?
ReplyDelete3 are mine. The girl on the top left is my daughters friend.
DeleteGood looking family Mark!
DeleteWow the kids are growing up fast. Great picture.
DeleteMy FB like participation.
DeleteThey have your huge feet and girlish looks!
DeleteI know I'm gonna regret not selling SPWR this morning...
ReplyDeleteI doubt it.
DeleteI sold it at $37.3. Oh well...
DeleteAnd added it back at $36.99
DeleteFast market. Sold at $37.42
DeleteVXX- Wow, not as much as I would have thought over the past few days.
ReplyDeleteBXE - Makes it hard to add, with crude coming off like a freight train.
ReplyDeleteSold more of CKI.TO. Up almost 50% YTD and my largest position, so reducing risk as upside decreases, but also plan to hold the cash and not redeploy into the market as I do think we will get better buying opps.
ReplyDeleteI should clarify. I think certain stocks like energy are good to buy now, but have a lot of that now. Waiting for something to buy in other areas.
DeleteGreat YTD move bro.
DeleteMOG doesn't know BXE. I'm a little surprised.
ReplyDeleteWell that didn't take long...
ReplyDeleteIn that case, I can't imagine she was satisfied.
DeleteFLWS - This one's been whacked back down.
ReplyDeleteWY - How about that move, recall watching it bottom in April
ReplyDeleteLong IWM at $116.17
ReplyDeleteJust thinking if we rally back up to prior highs then this is a fairly low risk trade. Close out if we move below $115.4 or so.
DeleteAA had killer earnings and the stock is ripping. I think that goes a long way ultimately. Might take a little shaking out but I think that should provide a floor under things in the very short term.
DeleteYeah, except Samsung warned, supposedly concerning lagging smartphone sales but I'm wondering if it has something to do with Japanese monetary policy? Also saw where China did/might halt smartphone subsidies.
DeleteI think of Korea as a canary in the mine when it comes to China?
Added more IWM at $116.36. Turning into a pretty big position for me. Just looking for a shorter term trade.
DeleteCP - I hear ya on Samsung but I think that could just be a matter of consumer tastes (more people moving to iPhones?). End industrial demand for products that AA makes is probably a little more important but then again the market did fine until AA bottomed last fall. Not sure. Look at Taiwan (EWT), though. They're pretty tech heavy and look like they're in the process of a huge 25 year break out. That's incredibly bullish.
DeleteI also think that Japan (/NKD) is marking its time and drifting higher and could also be on the verge of a major break out. The only concern I have right now is Shanghai. I think perhaps there are worse things going on there than every thinks? Maybe the real estate market is going to collapse? Who knows. I have exposure through BALT and LEJU (although LEJU is more of a play on the fact that everything in RE is moving online) so I'm a little worried.
DeleteBAC - Seems like since only the corrupt are repeatedly rescued from the hand of Mr. Market, wonder if these liar-loan banks have managed to fully offload their dead assets onto their unsuspecting victims yet?
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of BALT, my BALT position is down about 8%. I personally think that China is just going through a rough patch as it transitions its economy. I like BALT as long as it stays above the low $5's, and I think the concerns about coal demand are overblown because coal demand is actually growing pretty substantially from India and China.
ReplyDeleteI like BALT here because I initially targeted $6.2, $5.7, and low $5's as target entries if it got there. I was thinking maybe it would get to the low 5's if rates tanked and people got really bearish but as long as it held above $5.1 it should be ok and could be nothing more than just a deep pullback in what is a new bull market for shipping. If you look at other major bear markets in things like tech or financials, there were harrowing pullbacks along the way but ultimately the trend was higher. I think the same thing is playing out here with shippers. Ultimately there are plenty of reasons to be bullish about the demand for ships longer term from China and India and I'd say the markets are pricing in a helluva lot of doom and gloom with daily spot rates down 92% from all time highs.
And the other factor playing in BALTs favor is if someone was to pay the current market prices for all of BALTs boats, retire their debt, and liquidate the company, they would have to pay approx $8 based. However, they have the youngest fleet of boats out there so you could argue they're worth more.
DeleteNice to bottom tick the pullbacks if you can, but over time, doesn't matter that much.
DeleteYeah I agree. There are times when its lower and higher risk to be in a trade though. I won't ever get all of them right but it has helped me prevent a lot of blowups.
DeleteHulbert is on CNBC saying buybacks are signalling a bull market peak. Seems like he wants exposure to a top call in case he gets it right. Would do wonders for subscriber #'s!
ReplyDeleteSID is looking really good again.
ReplyDeleteRe Samsung, it really is more about the fact that the smartphone market is mature and people are starting to shop more on price. Happens with every consumer electronic (TV's, PC's, Surround Sound, etc.)
ReplyDeletePhone companies are becoming less willing to subsidize (competition, regulation), so why would I spend $700 for a Samsung Galaxy, when I can get a Google Nexus for half the price and it will do just as well for me. They all are gong to get hurt by pricing pressure and just wait for the Lenovo phones to hit the market.
I also think AA is much more indicative of the economy. Aluminum goes into a lot of expensive products like planes and cars and major industrial equipment, which drives capital spending and jobs, which in turn drive the economy further.
ReplyDeleteMark,
ReplyDeleteThat guy who wrote the report I gave you the link for works in the oil batch in Alberta and has had a good read on energy companies for the most part.
I added to BALT in my in laws account at $5.36/7 today. Their average is $5.75, down about 6.6%. Luckily I have picked some winners or else I'd be feeling the heat :)
ReplyDeleteIt's tough managing money for friends and relatives for sure. I've got some accounts for my kids, but they never ask, so easy.
DeleteI'm just kidding. They don't give me any hassles. Helps that I have one account up 90% since early last year.
DeleteEither Marketwatch writes a lot of negative stories or people love to read them. Either way, good to see:
ReplyDelete1.MICHAEL SINCERE'S LONG-TERM TRADER If ever the stock market flashed a ‘sell’ signal, it’s now
2.DAVID WEIDNER'S WRITING ON THE WALL Dow 17,000 is on the wrong side of history
3.DEEP DIVE 6 companies that should report huge earnings gains
4.MARK HULBERT Another sign the bull market is nearing its end
5.AL LEWIS Cupcakes are everything that’s wrong with America
As of last glance S&P was up 10 and NASDAQ up 30, keep those negative articles coming!
DeleteI also hear the Fed is behind everything. It was one of those original pieces you don't read anywhere else. I think the site was called Zero Edge...or Slope of Dope....or Minyan...oh no wait, it was tickerforum.
DeleteWow what a day for LEJU. Now its a matter of ascertaining whether yesterday was the fakeout or today was the fakeout.
ReplyDeleteSold IWM after hours at $116.56. It was mainly on margin so didn't want to hold it overnight even though it probably rips tomorrow.
ReplyDelete11th month of gains in a row for AA
ReplyDeleteWe certainly timed our buys pretty well back in Oct, 2013. Just missed by one month.
DeleteWe are now getting pretty close to the 2010 highs ($17) and 2011 ($18), so you'd think we'd see some basing or a pullback soon as we fight through these.
The thing I'm thinking is either to sell now and cash in the almost double and move on or to hold longer term and aim for the $40ish target, but will probably take another 2 to 4 years.
CSRE - Heading for $57?
ReplyDeleteWow. What a snoozer for me today. My positions moved..
ReplyDelete.00
.01
.01
.01
.01
.06
For what it's worth, up to 13% cash now, the most since mid-2008.
ReplyDeleteNot expecting a crash or anything, but just cashing out some fully valued ones and being a bit more cautious with purchases. I think the market is rotating as I talked about a few times before and think some more bargains appear as part of this process.
(a) RYJUX off at close for a -0.09% loss.
ReplyDelete(b) Took the hit on TSEM.
100% cash.
Miners.
ReplyDelete'nuff said.
The ATACX guys have done it again. Rotated into 'risk on,' taking shares to YTD highs. Then managed to give up -5% in less than two weeks.
ReplyDeleteIf I want that kind of performance, I'd rather do it myself.
DeleteY'all ready to trade UGAZ tomorrow?
ReplyDeletelooks interest to me, but last chemo coming up so who knows
DeleteUgaz jerked the hell out of me yesterday, but still feel some short covring coming here from those who caught the down trend/
Nice looking kids Mark, I can see how your girls are excellent soccer players, long legs.
ReplyDelete2nd posted an article stating that a 50/50 portfolio of utilities/consumer staples with very good long-term results and less volatilit
Returns and Volatility 1963-2014
Staples 13.33% 14.51
Utilities 10.71% 13.39
see this, scroll down to historical returns:
http://www.millennialinvest.com/blog/2014/6/18/the-best-performing-sector-consumer-staples-part-1
Very interesting for us older investors who want solid returns with less market vol.
Gold +18
ReplyDeleteSP -16
Remember Doug Kass' post re 'Mr. Big?'
ReplyDelete'As I wrote on RealMoneyPro - "Big" has added to his immense Nasdaq short on recent market strength.$QQQ.'
Sure do, remember that. Wonder if he's long T's?
DeleteWhen the FED jawbones, the market moves. And that's the reality.
ReplyDeleteGot a buy bid for my 5th largest holding NHG in Toronto (55% premium), so will be about 23% cash when it closes.
ReplyDeleteStill being patient though. Maybe today is the start of sell-off or maybe not, but I think we should see more weakness in individual stocks going forward.
fantastic
DeleteUGAZ - Hmm, nice smackdown, might be good entry near here.
ReplyDeleteLong UGAZ here, numbers out in a few minutes, oh boy
ReplyDeletethat's 10:30 not 10am
DeleteThat's what I thought. I might join you.
DeleteFeel free, UNG just above 200 dma and about -12.5% in last 3 weeks or so.
DeleteRed or Black time
TBT - One would think rates are lower based on this one, Bollard said the FED might need to raise rates sooner yet rates fall....
ReplyDeleteMDW trying to get them to pick me off above 1.01, no takers yet
ReplyDeletejust canx i'll wait for 1.18
Delete8 would be a sweet entry into BXE.
ReplyDeleteYeah, we're back to boiling frogs with this one.
DeleteWow, big pre relaese jump in UGAZ.
ReplyDeleteVE - Appears the Feb gap up might close, I think this one's a good water infrastructure play.
ReplyDeleteUGAZ> opened 18.17, closed 18.71.
ReplyDeleteReopening HDGE @ 12.055.
ReplyDeleteJust got back from a long walk this morning with my son. I put in some stink bids that got hit:
ReplyDeleteSPWR: $36.8
LEJU: $11.75
I meant to put one in for BALT at $5.15 but got tied up. Not sure if it would have filled.
Debating cashing those in now. This LEJU has been holding up quite strong so far. We'll see if it lasts.
Took the SPWR off. It could be forming a bear flag down here. The market is obviously weak so the odds of another lower entry point are decent.
DeleteBALT - 5.14 was the low, so depending on when and if...
DeleteYeah but I was going to bid a large chunk of shares at $5.15 and I highly doubt all of those would have filled. Only 700 shares filled at $5.14.
DeleteMr. Big - Just occurred to me that if timing is wrong then the trade is wrong. Adding to an underwater position suggests the timing is wrong?
ReplyDeleteMr. Big is a figment of Doug Kass' imagination. However, he will be able to say he was right if that was the top. Obviously the media won't discuss the 100 other topping calls before that.
DeleteYeah, if only I had not listened much earlier to these misleading suggestions.
DeleteThe fact is equities do tend to rise over the longer term. From time to time we can go through funks / corrections / selloffs, whatever you want to call it. But it's just plain old foolish to continually short things or be a negative nancy when it comes to equities over the long term. The odds are just not in your favor to be pessimistic. Eventually we will have our 20 or 25% correction and it will suck for people that are long. Lots of people will say its the beginning of a 2008 style crash or the next 1929 because, despite being wrong forever, they feel like they have to have their voice heard and have justification for being bearish for the past 200%.
DeleteAs far as trading, though, there are times to be balls out bullish and not. I'd say now is the latter...only because there's just not as many bargains out there and lots of traders are bullish.
DeleteBang on TOF!
DeleteAnd assuming he's making up this story, that makes Kass a liar. What a SCHMUCK!
DeleteI wouldn't call Kass a liar. He is a smart guy and a very good writer who also is running a hedge fund. Every person you read or see on TV has a position or agenda. You'll notice that the best fund managers like Tepper are never on TV (until recently). Why go on and talk your best ideas and let others get in front of you? Kass's short and top calling are all part of his marketing plan.
DeleteRe-entered SPWR around $38. Not sure why but if the market rallies from here I like their odds. Smaller position and will add on weakness to a certain point. Will sell if it goes below $37.65.
ReplyDeleteGood followthrough on AA today, up over 1.5% on a down day.
ReplyDeleteIndicates more upside is likely.
Morgan Stanley cites three reasons for upgrading Alcoa
DeleteAlcoa (AA +1.2%) continues its strong post-earnings rise, and Morgan Stanley jumps in with an upgrade of the shares to Overweight from Equal Weight.Stanley thinks the risk to upstream pricing is skewed to the upside; slowing growth of Chinese supply, combined with ex-China capacity cuts, should allow Alcoa to achieve premium pricing.The firm also cites an approaching recovery in the aerospace plate business starting in 2015 and in the U.S. can sheet market from 2016 due to declining supply from capacity allocation to auto products.Also, AA is one of the largest U.S. sheet producers, and the firm expects it to have ~30% share of U.S. auto sheet market.
Wow look at MBI. My favorite technical tool for selloffs like this is RSI(7) or RSI_EMA on ThinkorSwim. They are showing 4.7 and 5.5, both of which are basically about as low as it gets. WLT recently hit around a 7 RSI(7) and a 8.4 RSI_EMA on 6/4. I think it's worth a stab here for a trade.
ReplyDeleteLong small chunk of MBI at $9.288
DeleteAdded at $9.23.
DeleteGood God, hit by a truck then run over by a bus, spins around and rolls powerless onto the tracks to be hit by the oncoming train.
DeleteNatty - Trading around $4.13, that's pretty cheap when you consider producers claim they need $5. Who's to believe?
ReplyDeleteSold SPWR at $38.4 and bought OUTR at $54.6.
ReplyDeleteNo real reason for doing so but I sold my MBI at $9.4. I think it has the chance to bounce hard but I'd rather play that game with something I know (OUTR), even though it's universally known for being dead.
ReplyDeleteI still argue that there's a lot more life left in OUTR. I'd still say that far more people watch DVDs than stream. But that's beside the point. OUTR trades at ridiculous valuations:
Delete5X FCF for the past 3 years' average
8.9X 2013 EPS
They have a ROE of greater than 30%.
And in reality I'm probably looking for a few days trade out of this after all is said and done.
DeleteLong SPWR again at $38.03. Will stop out if it drops below $37.9. Just looking to chip away another 1% trade if possible.
ReplyDeleteSold at $38.21. Not much but I've had a lot of luck trading this one the past few days.
Deletewent out the door earlier on MDW at .989
ReplyDeleteStill spinning around on Ugaz
Have you guys seen corn lately? jeez. That was part of the reason I liked PEIX. Unfortunately I didn't have the cajones to sit through the downturn from $3.8 to $2.3 (who would?). Takeaway from that is to buy in pieces over time. I had a 33% position in that but bought it all at around $3.8, thinking I was smart for waiting after the pop to $4+ on 10/2/13. I think I stopped myself out at a 8% loss.
ReplyDeletePatience, position sizing, and buying in pieces...
For a about a week now.
DeleteTwo NFLX recommendations:
ReplyDelete(a) Out of the Furnace (Christian Bale, Casey Affleck, Willem Dafoe, Woody Harrelson, Sam Shepard).
(b) The Great Train Robbery (2013 British mini-series version).
I like the series 'The Killing'. Some parts are lame but worth suffering through.
DeleteNGas will come back, of that I have no doubt. I just don't have the cojones to trade a weekly chart. If I did, I could make serious money on the swings.
ReplyDeleteNew clients. He works for Citadel and she works for GS. They're fucking everywhere...
ReplyDeleteAUMN- That's like a 25% intra day turn around.
ReplyDeleteI bet it's closer to 12 than 19, Europe is supposedly 13 and the US is around 18, I think.
ReplyDeleteHere's a thought:
ReplyDeleteIf you run a chart since 2004, EEM lines up very directly with the Canadian Market - EWC.
I'm pretty sure its because both markets are resources heavy as compared to the US and are not US$ denominated.
The thing you have to think about is that while EEM is cheaper, now (probably, as you indicate) Canada is a more mature market with rule of law and good accounting.
Canada is a great place to invest when resources are good. Over half of the world's oil companies (by number, not market cap) are listed in Canada and same with miners.
You don't get the Samsungs and China Mobile's of the world, but from a broad market of ETF perspective, that hasn't mattered for the last 10 years.
BXE - Looks like the general consensus is this one should be sold.
ReplyDeleteHas to hold it's higher high here hun?
DeleteLike that?
Yep, I have $8.42 as the line in the sand.
DeleteMy basis is $8.78, so I really need to see a lower price than this before I can add. The same shit happened to me in silver and the damn thing just kept on falling, never recovered.
DeleteThat's really well though out BB.
ReplyDeleteI think BB's suggestion is to not overlook EWC
ReplyDeleteKFX. Shit.
ReplyDeleteGoes to show I need a watch list instead of randomly checking names.
DeleteNever heard of it.
DeleteTaiwan is up 10.4% YTD as of right now. I don't know if you guys have access to a 30 year chart of the TSEC but it's on the very of a breakout above the late 1980's / early 1990's levels. 25 years of no gains. Think about what happened AFTER the DJIA broke above the 1929 highs in 1954. It went up 37% in the next 15 to 18 months.
ReplyDeleteThat's a great point, especially if it's rejected here and pulls back a bit. Does it look like a 30 year cup?
DeleteEEM - I'd say eventually a lot of those markets will be mature and will be assigned higher multiples. I think they're a great play right now.
ReplyDeleteI cleared out a few positions today and took a large position in edc.
ReplyDeleteI freekin like that chart, my problem is experts have been touting EM's lately, and have been negative on slow growth in US and slower growth in Europe. But in a globalizing world does slow domestic economic growth necessarily correlate to low corporate earnings? What about upside surprises?
DeleteEntry price is key and I might jettison it at the end of the day if strength doesn't come and give me a cushion.
DeleteAs far as correlations go, lower growth is typically associated with higher stocks. I shared a study from eTrade maybe 4 years ago about this
In that case it stands to follow as growth returns stocks might become soft. That's consistent with central bank interest rate tightening.
DeleteThus, we need low growth to keep stocks supported.
OUTR - Man, hard to believe this thing is off this much. I'm tempted to think of it as a gift at this point.
ReplyDeleteCSRE - $34, or $51 ?
ReplyDeleteMCHP - Retest $45, or just keep climbing?
DeleteWIT - Hmm, any chance this one can resume it;s impressive climb, India is an emerging market, right?
ReplyDeleteConnecting the dots here, Agnik - India, AGCO, India, WIT, India - I'm sniffing Telemetry systems development and implementation.
DeleteMy next task is to discover who's designing the actual chips, if done in house and sent to a foundry such as MCHP.
I love the way Google is "taking care" of us.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I still like BALT here. What did you sell? I can't remember what you had.
ReplyDeleteI've got balt for the next run if it takes a year so be it. Sold outr and sne (bought back tho). Also sold edc at close bc I was on flight to Boston (just touched down). I ain't touching balt
DeleteBXE vs MUX - Looks like the tide has turned.
ReplyDeleteSNE - Is it possible Onsen mineral deposits might interfere with creativity? Sony expresses admiration for Disney's IP:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2014/07/11/japan-getting-exclusive-official-bizarre-frozen-edition-ps4-from-sony/?partner=yahootix
Time for curling a few cold Stroh's?
ReplyDeleteMark - my call is balt goes to $25 to $30 within 2 years
ReplyDeleteEnjoy Boston. I've been busy and didn't even realize you hopped back in SNE. I like that one too.
DeleteCYNK - Getting the dirty Sanchez.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete