My take on the markets this weekend is pretty simple.
(a) The SPX (S&P 500) gaps down briefly on Monday.
(b) The SPX bounces, topping somewhere in the Khrushchev/Kennedy era> 1956 to 1962.
(c) The SPX dives again.
Outside chance the SPX bounces back to the future> 2014+.
'The Hot Zone' was published in 1994 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hot_Zone). It's now twenty years later, and indeed Ebola has returned with a vengeance.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-26835233
Surely technology holds the solution?
DeleteOur democratic governor is squawking loudly about the failure to re-elect our republican senator, says the state is in for a rude awakening in 2016 when the Federal budget cuts kick in.
ReplyDeleteI can't help but think this wouldn't also be the case for many/most other states.
2nd, my chemo is now complete after six cycles of RCHOP. I still get very tired and may have developed a heart issue from the drug Doxorubin. Here is what I wrote yesterday to my family and friends (stole the line from Jesse, since I like it). Two photos probably will not show up the first was a photo of a Hawaiian sunrise, the second a Hawaiian sunset. Thanks again for asking and I hope no one here ever has to go through such treatment.
ReplyDeleteDear Family and Friends,
I wish to again express my gratitude to family and friends who have wished me well with their prayers and concern. It has made the process easier to endure. Thank you all.
And now by name in no particular order: Paul, my Mother, Vinny, Alan, Phyllis, Frosty, Nancie, Don, Joe, Ken, Keith, Pamela, Tuula, and Beverly. Again thank you all.
I have not written for a while since chemo takes you to a depth of a faraway place. Where that place was, I’m not sure, but it was a private place where you are just trying to survive the process and wanted to be left alone.
This is what I wrote to Ken about eight days ago, because he was giving me flack for spelling Cashin as Cashen.
“Chemo is cumulative, the more you do it, the sicker it makes you. Plus add on the 10 other pills they give to take a day and yes I'm not okay. Add on the hydrocodone you take to kill the physical pain and half the time when you are not sleeping you have no idea what your saying.
And then they tell you that one of the chemo drugs causes heart failure, heck, I'm having the time of my life. anyway it should be getting better from here.
CASHIN BABY”
Cashin refer’s to UBS’s Art Cashin, see attachment for those curious.
Obviously I was a little irritated at what I was experiencing and dealing with potential side effects of chemo. One of which makes you very tired, but it's getting better every day.
Sunrise, Surprise, I’m floating on a billowy Hawiian cloud.
My six cycles of chemo is now complete. I had a PET scan the other day and met with Dr. Kwak and his team. I’m cancer free, probably cured, and in remission. Phyllis and I are floating on a cloud.
Inline image 1
Of course, there are still potential challenges ahead. I’m still trying to figure out what I just went through. One of the keys going forward is for the disease not to come back within two years than my positive outcome expands exponentially, I’m expecting the best.
The sun is setting on my journals and this is my last entry. Thank you all for sharing and supporting me in this journey it has meant more to me than you will ever know.
Inline image 2
PS For those medically inclined my WBC is 2.8 and Absolute Neutrophil is 2.7, yeah!
Wow. cancer free is fantastic news! I'm extremely happy for you T3D!!! :) :) :)
DeleteWow wonderful news. I'm praying for you my friend
DeleteT3d -- WOW man. Had no idea you were going through all this. Hope your strength continues to improve and all goes well. Take good care man. Kyle
DeleteWOW man. Had no idea you were going through all this. Hope your strength continues to improve and all goes well. Take good care man. Kyle
DeletePer Ira Harris:
ReplyDeleteThe supreme global macro trader has been Stanley Druckenmiller. As I previously noted, he gave a great speech and interview at CNBC’s Alpha Conference. A guide to what makes a great analyst a great trader is the ability to admit I AM WRONG. The first question any quality analyst/trader asks is, “WHAT IF I AM WRONG?” Evolving from that question is the necessity to establish loss parameters to insure surviving for another day. Every good trader is often wrong in the fundamentals and timing of the trade. The wisdom I try to convey to my readers is the culmination of 37 years of global macro trading. Let my scars provide a platform for your success.
My criticism of the FED and other policy makers is that being wrong is not in the model. Crunch enough data and the probabilities of success increase. This is the mantra of the Fed, and, of course the foreign policy establishment: “We have a high probability of being right but we don’t know the cost of failure.” Think of Robert McNamara and the best and brightest that brought us Vietnam. More recently we had Senator John Kerry go to Syria and proclaim that President Assad was a reformer and there was no need to worry about Syria devolving into civil and political strife. Well, 180,000 Syrians have died in the following three years but without a hint of being wrong. It is in this vein that I quote Stan Druckenmiller from his speech at ALPHA.
“My job for 30 years was to anticipate changes in the economic trends that were not expected by others, and, therefore not yet reflected in security prices. I certainly made my share of mistakes over the years, but I was fortunate enough to make outside gains a number of times when we had different views and various central banks. Since most investors like betting with the central bank, these occasions provided our most outside returns and the subsequent price adjustments were quite extreme.” In direct response to current central bank policy, Druckenmiller says: “I don’t know whether we’re going to end with a malinvestment bust, due to misallocation of resources. Whether its inflation, or whether the outcome will actually be benign. I really don’t. But neither does the Fed.”
This is a powerful thought and if we all do our work we will find the best investments for the least risk as we continue to decipher the financial effects of a global zero interest rate policy. As I like to say, “Unfortunately for all the math utilized in the Fed models, the end result is it “AIN’T ROCKET SCIENCE” for there is not predictable outcome for return to a safe landing.
ALSK - PE is 0.68 still
ReplyDeleteGM (NYSE:GM) has asked Dicastal, its main Chinese supplier, to find an alternative source of components after a Zhongrong Metal Products plant exploded on Saturday killing at least 69 people and injuring approximately 200.
ReplyDeleteThe Zhongrong factory made wheels that were supplied to GM through Dicastal - its tier-1 component supplier.
General Motors notes that yesterday's accident will not cause any immediate impact on its production because it currently has "sufficient inventory".
The explosion was China’s worst industrial accident in a year.
t3d- What I know about you via the blog is you're someone who tries to do the right thing for others. So I believe things will turn out well for you. Thanks for sharing your story.
ReplyDeleteCP, TOF, Kyle, and 2nd thanks for the well wishes. 2nd, I was thinking the same thing today, it is all going to work out well.
DeleteCheers mates.
And I wish Mark's wife well and a great positive outcome for her too.
URI - This one is the double we were looking for that BALT, OUTR, etc. didn't deliver. URI is a profitable company, as well.
ReplyDeleteGTAT - Sapphire maker selling done?
ReplyDeleteGSJK - Could be a decent entry area?
ReplyDeleteMONIF- I'll try again at .70. Might as well play this mini 10% cannel down here.
ReplyDeleteDig this, guys. Rydex has started to charge a 49.95 transaction fee on funds opened/closed on the Fido platform, effective July 31, 2014. That is some serious bullshit, and will cause me to alter my trading strategies/vehicles.
ReplyDeleteWTF. Why would anyone charge that kind of fee nowadays?
DeleteWe should own Rydex stock, LOL.
DeleteRussell 2000 has traded sideways for 10 months now.
ReplyDeleteGEVO - Just noticed was whacked hard on the dilution.
ReplyDeleteOpening a position in XLU (utilities) @ 40.60. Currently -8.3% off it's YTD high (set June 30), and -1.9% today.
ReplyDeleteUmmm guys...ENPH is down 20% in the past 7 days as earnings are coming tomorrow. What's the most obvious move after earnings?
ReplyDeleteNo clue, but I opened a small stake @ 9.70.
DeleteYeah I really don't have an edge on it from a fundamental standpoint so I'll probably pass but it does raise my eyebrows.
DeleteI did add a little SNE today. I just think this thing is so undervalued relative to its parts. Just makes sense to me that this doubles within the next year or so. I think it can pull a move similar to AA.
Miners not looking good, which means they're starting to look good.
ReplyDeleteShort SPY as a hedge at $193.83
ReplyDeleteClosed it out at $194.15. Feels like a short squeeze but I could be wrong. Just looking to protect some of my positions.
DeleteI'm contemplating the hedge...thinking the odds of a gap down or a gap up tomorrow are about equal. If a gap up occurs I will definitely margin up to hedge the port. If it gaps down I have reduced risk enough to help manage it.
DeleteClosing two trades, and opening one trade.
ReplyDelete(a) RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x Government Long Bond) will be closed for what will likely be a loss of -0.2%.
(b) XLU closed here @ 41.04, an intrady gain of +1.08%. The position was 'paired' with RYGBX in that both bonds and utilities tend to move in concert, and utilities had taken a hit while bonds remained intact. Position size was equivalent to my position in RYGBX, so I prefer to look at (a) + (b) as a +0.8% gain on the pair.
(c) UGAZ +3.5% today. Position size is small, and NGas appears to have put in a bottom. Giving this trade more room to run!
(d) RYWBX. Slight bias toward a weakening $USD today. Sticking with the position.
(e) Opening a small position in RYWYX (Rydex 2x Inverse Emerging Markets) at the close. EEM has now retraced about 55% of last week's decline in two days. That seems excessive to me, but I'm open to being 'wrong.' Size + sentiment should back stop this trade. I'll stop out quickly if wrong.
Oh man I like that Nat Gas trade. Looks awesome.
DeleteLatest from Saut:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm
Jeez NLS again.
ReplyDeleteLooking at the bigger picture it does actually look like the Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow Jones are all retesting the levels that they broke out from.
ReplyDeleteDOW: 16,500
S&P: 1,900
COMP: 4,300
Long GLUU at $5.35 after hours. Yep, I'm buying into Kim Kardashian.
ReplyDeleteBeen checking this play out myself.
DeleteWhat r ur thoughts?
DeleteRSH - These guys haven't filed chap 11 yet?
ReplyDeleteLong weekend up here in Canada, so missed a lot of the selloff. I tend to agree with Saut's advice that TOF posted and would be patient. My portfolio was up over 16% YTD at the end of July, so I'm happy with that, but my cash holdings are high (25%) as I do think a decent pullback would make sense. I think shorter term, we bounce now and build a broader top over August, then get the larger pullback in the fall.
ReplyDeleteORI, the commercial insurer that I have a larger position in, has had an excessive pullback based on their earnings and is probably in a good spot to buy. It is large for me, so I probably won't, but they are a dividend aristocrat, with a very good balance sheet and look like they are bottoming from an oversold point of view. A 20% bounce in the net few months wold seem very doable to me.
beat up
ReplyDeleteRRC WFM FMC SLM VXX
RJA, bought some on the close yesterday, hard not to see rising food prices with drought in CA.
DeleteCORN looks buyable w/tight stop
Sure would be nice to see a up 10% UGAZ day to get me out of a bad position I have on due to faulty discipline the last few weeks. I need to look in the closet and see if I can find my goldfinger there that's where I use to find my forehand.
DeleteGL today guys/girls
RRC long
DeleteHave a great day T3D ! :)
DeleteCP, today is the best day of my life, you have a great one too.
DeletePNRA - Coming to us?
ReplyDeleteUGAZ off @ 15.15. +7.8% gain on the trade.
ReplyDeleteYELP - Why doesn't this one ever gap up while I own it????
ReplyDeleteORI on my watch list.
ReplyDeleteENPH off @ 9.86.
ReplyDeleteCIE - Huge beatdown firesale.
ReplyDeleteMark, Feel free to ask MOG about this one again, my understanding is the small companies are being turned away from offshore leasing?
Delete$6.6B doesn't seem small, perhaps b/c I'm so tiny in comparison.
AIG - Even this one's red. I'll check in later....
ReplyDeleteINTC - Bull flag $100+ target ? No f'in way....?
KWK - Well, that's not a positive response at all.
ReplyDeleteBLMN- This surprises me. Anyone have time to check it out?
ReplyDeleteStarter @ 16.03.
DeleteThat is a surprise, all kinds of restaurants. Looks good to me once the new range is established and hopefully that range doesn't resolve lower. Maybe we can tell by the flag that forms (bull or bear).
Deletehmmm...outback?
DeleteI think I'll go stand in the slug line today.
ReplyDeleteRSH - Taking it off here.
ReplyDeleteEEM gapping down -1.1% at the open. Plan to close RYWYX (Rydex 2x Inverse Emerging Markets) at the 1030 am est trading window.
ReplyDeleteSilver's looking better as well.
ReplyDeleteHXL/ROLL/PCP all nicely green.
ReplyDeleteAdded a little Kim Kardashian at $5.23
ReplyDeleteand some more at 5.159.
DeleteBLMN- Yes. Outback.
ReplyDeleteGLUU- Was there any news the last 2 days?
ReplyDeleteEarnings. But it was due for a fall after a 100% rise in 3 weeks.
DeleteBLMN- 15.50 in another account.
ReplyDeleteLegalized corporate marriage = Higher airfare.
ReplyDeleteDG - Okay YELP, take a clue and let's see your stuff ya' PIG!
ReplyDeleteCapitulated in GLUU. I probably don't need more exposure in this market. I need less. Sold at $5.1
ReplyDeleteKim, darling, I hardly knew ya
DeleteI sold at her rounded bottom.
Deletesold half UGAZ, book the loss, real close to dumping two others but went downstairs to the gym and did pilates, need to get my strength back.
ReplyDeleteRRC is on a short string here they just hate NGAS stocks here. Meanwhile SGEN and PCRX just keep marching.
yesterday they loved the energy stocks today hate again
DeleteYeah, not long ago DRI was hated and today BLMN, frickin' bizarre.
DeleteMining investors taking another bath today.
ReplyDeleteEJ @ 10.68.
ReplyDeleteLEJU @ 12.27.
Given them some space cuz ya never know. I'm trying my best to hold these for the longer term because I think the trend online in China real estate is in inning 1.
DeleteAdded at $12.04
DeleteRSX @ 23.64.
ReplyDeleteINT - World Fuel Services: Aviation strong, Marine stable, & Land disappoints; PO to $51 (BACML)
ReplyDeletevgk @ 56.50.
ReplyDeleteqld @ 114.252.
MET - Also coming to us.
ReplyDeleteLELU- Did you guys see that 45K share ask flash?
ReplyDeleteyeah someone is trying to get out today.
Deleteand EVERYONE is trying to get out of BLMN!
DeleteLooks like its actually 50k shares. probably a momentum player that bought in the $14s
DeleteThe bloomin onion lost its flavor?
DeleteI have a stink bid on BLMN, who knows maybe someone big throws in the towel.
DeleteKFX- Good news.
ReplyDeleteABAC - So much for Chinese stocks. But why the name change as OINK is the best ticker since BRO
ReplyDeleteAdding to LEJU @ 11.89.
ReplyDeleteBXE - So now we get to experience the reaction in the morning. What will it be like?
ReplyDelete"Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. ("Bellatrix" or the "Company") (TSX, NYSE MKT: BXE) will release its 2014 second quarter financial and operating results prior to the market opening on Wednesday, August 6, 2014."
ENPH. wtf.
ReplyDeleteThe only remaining solution, now that oil and coal are illegal?
DeleteBLMN- I think it's getting thrown in the whole Red Lobster/Olive Garden/MCD un healthy mess..when in fact it's really healthy as long as your smart.
ReplyDeleteMade some fairly big changes today. Sold sne unfortunately and cytx thankfully. I added a bunch of leju. Now a very large position for me. Yikes!
ReplyDeleteIts crazy how strong X is. I'm sure you guys have seen the coal stocks too...
ReplyDeleteFSLR missed
ReplyDeleteper UBS
Positioned to benefit from market upsides, solar penetration; utility focused
Like other US developers, First Solar stands to benefit from the major market drivers in solar right now.
Unlike the other developers, First Solar has a large module production capacity of ~2GW with ability to
grow to up to ~4GW, and with average line efficiency is in the mid-teens, module costs in the mid-50s,
and improving economic curves for both, we believe there is room for margin stability or potential
expansion over the next year or two. Additionally, while US utility scale is slowing down post 2016, we
do believe that First Solar is poised for organic project and third party booking wins given their stature in
the US market coupled with the recent prelim tariffs placed on Chinese/Taiwanese cell/modules.
Likely no YieldCo but likelihood of benefiting from the surge of other YieldCos
We do not think that First Solar is likely to pursue a YieldCo in this call, however, they haven't yet ruled
out the structure. That said we believe this call will be more focused on recent project booking wins as
well as strong project equity sales, largely motivated by the growing presence of YieldCos decreasing
financing costs.
Optimistic on improving guidance, environment but wait for confirmation
There has been mixed news recently, with the breakdown of talks over the 2GW Ordos plant in inner
Mongolia and the win of a 100MW/year module supply agreement, we can see the volatility of the
development business. We believe that while the loss of such a large piece of pipeline is negative, we
think there is ample opportunity to grab capacity in smaller chunks. We still believe that First Solar is
well positioned for bookings growth and are curious to learn if they are pursuing more projects to
finance on balance sheet or execute as merchant, such as the 22MW Barilla project in Texas. Our focus
remains on yearly EPS and not quarter to quarter EPS, prone to rev rec slips.
Valuation: Neutral Rating; 12-month price target is $75
Our PT is based on applying an 18x P/E multiple to our 3 year average EPS of $4.15. We believe First
Solar is executing well on its backlog/pipeline but look for more growth of its international pipeline and
confirmation of improved project equity sale environment.
SUNE, per UBS
ReplyDeleteExpect near term focus on backlog growth, pipeline outlook, and solid margins
With the successful IPO of TERP completed, we now focus on the core of SUNE's value creation through
the project business. After dropping backlog by 100MW q/q last quarter we look for an increase in
contracted projects. We should see the additions of at least 72MW of the Tenaska plant, 156MW
Colorado plant, and 50MW of MA plants while dropping ~175MW from completions in the quarter; we
look for at least 100MW of backlog growth although preferably towards 200MW. There is potentially
more pipeline through the 549MW acquired AES dev portfolio and organic growth. We look for margin
stability in the teens, with ASPs remaining near $2.75-$3.00; we wait to hear on plans for the balance of
the AES portfolio including European/Indian assets.
More projects for TerraForm, stronger DG turns and acquisitions for upside
We look for some clarity on asset drop schedules for TerraForm to help guide forward revenue
recognition as well as SUNE's updated thoughts on interaction with TerraForm. We also look for
updates related to their capital needs as SUNE embarks on further growth and financing through
traditional debt, converts, and equity are all possible. Finally we would like to hear on US DG growth
and outlook for this year and 2015 as we expect solid growth yoy (near 90%) and look for continued
growth into 2015.
While upsides from execution exist, interest rate and other risks remain
While we continue to see opportunity for SUNE to increase market share and efficiently develop/finance
projects we see risks to SUNE. Rising interest rates bring two potential financing risks. First rising rates
may hit the YieldCo economics, dropping the purchase price for assets as well as the valuation of TERP.
Second, increased project debt costs increase overhead and the cost of long term leverage. We also look
to hear of SUNE's ability to source modules for a growing pipeline in the US from current or alternate
capacity. Finally, we look for long term strategy with SUNE's international business, such as longer term
asset retention or pipeline growth or JV plans.
Valuation: Buy rated with a 12-month price target of $30.00
Our 12-month price target on SUNE is based on a sum of the parts valuation.
Looks like LEJU may be winning listing business from SouFun (SFUN). Just saw this news on Stocktwits...the weakness in all of these online RE companies today may be attributed to the following:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.chinadailyasia.com/business/2014-08/06/content_15155055.html
Check out the names of the first two listed above:
"The brokerages, led by Centaline Property Agency, Century 21 Real Estate and Shanghai Deovolente Realty, accused New York-listed Soufun of going back on its word when it introduced new ancillary charges that effectively negate a discount it promised in June in a reconciliation agreement."
Here's LEJU's news from 2 weeks ago:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/leju-inks-strategic-agreements-leading-113000359.html
" today announced that it has signed strategic agreements with over 100 secondary brokerage agencies in 17 key cities in China, including four secondary brokerage agency alliance groups in Hangzhou, Qingdao, Chongqing and Xi'an. The participating brokerage agencies include 5i5j, Centaline, Century 21 China Real Estate, Home Link, and My Top Home, among others. "
Looks like Century 21 and Centaline are two defections potentially. SFUN did $200 Million in listing revenues last year so this could be a nice development.
Actually I think they did about $160 million in listing revenues last year.
DeleteGold - 1275 wasn't tested so maybe it's not gonna plunge?
ReplyDeleteTVIX - Of course this one's been flying.
LEJU off @ 12.27.
ReplyDeleteWill open a small position in RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) @ the 1030 am est window.
Took the hit on CYTX @ 1.66. That was fun.
ReplyDeleteAdded to BXE @ 6.80
Brutal (CYTX) man. I somehow dodged that bullet when I panic sold several positions yesterday, in haste. If memory serves me right that study wasn't a near term catalyst and was more of an experimental type thing to determine the different potential applications of their technology. Either way it broke down through support and needs to get back above $2ish for me to get interested again.
DeleteThis market smells foul.
BXE - Added a little more @ $6.78, confirming my insanity.
ReplyDeleteWhere's Kyle with our S&P target? Just can't get good help anymore?
ReplyDeleteMarkets seem to be bouncing today. Makes sense give the severe pullback. Let's see if it holds.
ReplyDeleteThe numbers out of BXE were actually pretty good I thought. I guess they missed slightly on revenues but hit earnings and confirmed their production guidance which will show strong growth this year
Thanks for your take BB, seems perhaps the market agrees.
DeleteDoesn't really matter in this market, it seems.
DeleteEWG/IRE - Both are green, light at end of the "nightmare"? Would it be funny to see peace break out in the middle east and oil rally simultaneously?
ReplyDeleteThis is where game theory (as BB mentioned) comes into play. Everyone knew we were due for a pullback. Shit we went like 30 months without a 10% correction!!!! Oh the horror! So now we have a pullback, fear is ratcheting up. Those that sold long ago waiting for a dip are going to be itching to buy. Do they buy here or wait?
ReplyDeleteI think people are anxious now as many missed the last pullback as they got scared. So I could see that they buy now and we bounce, but then we get further weakness into the fall and more of a drop, so they get scared out again again and miss the big buying opportunity.
DeleteYeah I'm seeing a lot of people calling for that as well. I think if we get a rally to new highs here the odds of a sharper pullback just a month later are high only if Russia/Ukraine is still front and center.
DeleteThe market smells less foul than it did earlier today. Seeing the small caps putting in a bottom is a good sign. We'll see if it holds though. 1107 has been defended.
DeleteSmells like wet ass. :)
DeleteOr it may be something beside Russia that causes the next pullback if it comes - it is often the unexpected that has the biggest effect.
DeleteHopped back into Kim Kardashian's rounded bottom at $5.22 (GLUU). I honestly don't love the play but I think this game has some serious momentum behind it. I'm starting to read more and more media hype trashing the game because of it being too addictive. That's bullish to me.
ReplyDeleteFat bottom girls you make the rockin' world go 'round..........Left alone with big fat Fanny, She was such a naughty nanny! Hey big woman you made a bad boy out of me! Hey hey!
DeleteSing it sister!
DeleteAdded some big bumm at $5.14.
DeleteHave to leave some space because its such a big bottom :)
DeleteBXE now up 5% off this morning's bottom. I guess the market is being extra-efficient today!
ReplyDeleteFrom the Globe:
ReplyDeleteBellatrix Exploration Ltd. reported its second-quarter results overnight, with cash flow per share of 39 cents missing the Street consensus of 45 cents. Production of 36,342 barrels of oil equivalent per day was a little lower than consensus expectations of 37,000.
But AltaCorp Capital Reserch analyst Jeremy McCrea was overall quite pleased with the results and reiterated his "outperform" rating and $14 (Canadian) price target.
"While the quarter was in line for us, the weakness in gas prices continues to weigh on the stock price," Mr. McCrea commented in a research note. "We’ll remind investors, however, that given its joint venture partners, individual well paybacks are within 6-12 months, and even under lower AECO (gas prices), economics still stand to be top tier in the basin....The company continues to be a very attractive buy for long-term investors."
FIATY down over 15% in the last week that too many people will want to sell their shares for cash ($500 million cap) and the merger with Chrysler will get delayed as will the NYSE listing. From what I'm reading, the risk of this is quite low, so seems like a good time for a trade, but I'm concerned with the broader markets being weak (S&P now negative for the day) that the expected bounce back may not come. But sure seems like a good risk/reward play.
ReplyDeleteSo many good stocks were creamed!
DeleteTSLA - Breakout
ReplyDeleteStrong cult stock.
DeleteWith less than an hour 'til close, the DJIA/SPX/NDQ are mildly positive.
ReplyDelete(a) In addition to LEJU, I've taken EJ off the table for a minor gain.
(b) Closed QLD @ 115.35 (it traded as high as 116.20 earlier in the day) for a +0.9% gain, mainly to reduce my risk level.
(c) RSX has fallen even lower, to 23.09. I need to be careful not to fall into a 'value trap' with Russia, as a 'low' P/E of 5 means nothing if Putin continues to self-destruct.
(d) I opened a small position RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) @ 82.26 (at the 1030 am est window).
(e) Debating whether to close two additional positions in RYTNX (Rydex 2x SPX) and RYEUX (Rydex Europe).
So the indexes aren't bouncing much! At this point, a continued (short term) rally lies in the hands of bears. Only a short squeeze would drive the indexes significantly higher.
Sticking with small positions in RYTNX, RYWVX, and RYEUX overnight. What's driving the decision?
Delete(a) TLT (the long bond) has backed off significantly from morning highs, and currently trading flat. The long bond is a decent gauge of investor risk appetite.
(b) XLU (utilities) trading down -1.24% @ 40.19 on high volume. Strength in utilities usually indicate 'risk off,' and weakness the reverse.
(c) The $USD, after hitting new recent highs this morning, is now trading down -0.14%. Strength in the dollar also indicates 'risk off,' and weakness the reverse.
Reopening a smaller position in LEJU @ 11.91.
ReplyDeleteSFUN earnings in the morning FYI
DeleteI picked up GMCR in the $113s after hours only for a after hours trade. Hoping it catches another infamous short squeeze.
ReplyDeleteNo such luck I think. sold at $114.1.
DeleteZU - Now that's one impressive report. I bought at little at $38.6. I'm very familiar with this website as my wife spends 1/2 of our disposable income at it.
ReplyDeleteOuch. Got taken out of that quickly. Sold at $37.5
DeleteYeah, what's the deal with that one not jumping?
DeleteENPH - $0.03 shy of a new high then rolled over.
ReplyDeleteBLMN - Came real close to jumping on this one today but was watching BXE & YELP too closely.
ReplyDeleteGRPN - Torn to shreds
XEC - Upgraded to buy from BACML
NSPH- Cash burn race now?
ReplyDeleteNice production raise from energy company JONE after hours today due their improved frac approach. Be surprised if the stock doesn't move up on this.
ReplyDeleteInteresting. What's your value target on this one? I'm looking for some other potential portfolio holdings.
DeleteI like this article...seems like he's using some fairly trustworthy indicators:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/2391375-more-signs-a-market-bottom-is-forming
I especially like the skepticism in the comments.
Similar article from Detrick:
Deletehttp://ryandetrick.tumblr.com/post/93800223955/is-it-time-to-panic-friday-saw-some-extreme
I like his summary:
Lastly, there were times this ratio became inverted and it didn’t lead to higher prices (think ‘08). So if we are still in a bull market, I’d expect some strong prices soon. If not, buckle your seatbelts.
"So if we are still in a bull market, I’d expect some strong prices soon. If not, buckle your seatbelts. "
DeleteProbably will see a brief fake rally leading to the down leg?
NWBI - ?
ReplyDeleteRe JONE, I followed the reminiscenses guy into this one. It's one of his larger positions:
ReplyDeletehttp://reminiscencesofastockblogger.com/category/jones-energy-jone/
It's a story of production growth which translates well into higher stock prices and I think the stock is still not well known.
I'm not great at analyzing energy stocks, but I feel I need to own them, especially now that the economy is getting better, so I generally just read the analyst reports and find successful energy investors to follow into interesting stocks. That's why I have a lot of them instead of a few larger positions.
He has about 7 or 8 energy stocks, but the story on this seems compelling (and he also likes BXE which I had previously bought).
He was looking for $20 this year, but we've hit that and I think we can go much higher. Don't really have a target, but I think we could get 30% a year out of this stock. One concern is that they have 2 types of shares (economically the same) and only 12.5m of the 50m shares trade publicly, so I wonder if there may be more supply over time.
I plan to generally sell most of my energy stocks in two or three years when the economy is really hot and they are hopefully much higher.
The energy supply trend seems to be up, I think for the next few years at least? Not sure if supply will exceed demand but seems to be closing the gap?
DeleteZU - Looks like a different story this morning so far.
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