STM - Looks like the perfect place for a breakout. The reason I've been watching this one is their recent patent describing components of a fusion reactor, LOL.
Stocks are sold, not bought, right? http://business.financialpost.com/2014/09/18/transcanada-corp-could-be-target-of-activist-u-s-hedge-funds-including-daniel-loebs-third-point/?__lsa=14cd-32f1
No idea of what a good day might feel like they're so few. I guess small caps are labor intensive so if labor expense rises that takes a bite out of the bottom line. We had a services based workforce not so long ago? NCR shakeout in progress?
On the day of the Alibaba IPO, emerging markets are selling off. Perfect example of the Market ensuring maximum frustration.
The US indexes continue to print new highs each day, but leadership has been narrow. Small caps, emerging markets, energy, and commodities have been selling off- there’s a huge divergence under the hood.
Stopping out of EEM here for a -0.6% hit. None of my recent chips have paid off- clearly either I’m ‘off,’ or the markets are signaling ‘risk off.’ I’m betting most hedge funds have had a difficult time as well. Unlike hedge funds, however, one of my preferred strategies is cash.
On the bright side, today's lower rates might help but not sure how much considering refinancings remained in the toilet last report as rates were making new lows?
Interesting to see that most of my holdings were up today despite the Russell 2000 being down so much. GOOGL, ZU, LNKD all up. YELP down marginally. I wonder if this reverses hard on Monday.
Yeah I saw that. Seems good to me. I understand their keeping the holding company rating lower than the 2 main operating units as there is some risk, but if you read their confernce call transcripts, the risk is very, very low. But also that is why we get it cheap. Otherwise the stock would be at $20 now.
So, interesting that TOF's growthy type stocks did well yesterday and my more value oriented portfolio did poorly (the European finanicals were a bright spot) and 2nd's Emerging markets and commodity plays not working and CP's just general market frustration.
Not sure if it means anything to the broader market trend - it could just be market noise and the BABA IPO process playing out as TOF suggested (and we should have listened!).
But when I step back and take a look at the longer term charts, the large cap indexes SPY, QQQ, DIA, RSP are all still in uptrends.
The small caps IWM, IWC, TNA are still in basing patterns for 2014 after an exceptional 2 years.
Plus, if you read Ryan Detrick (who is great with market stats), we are, on average, in the worst week of the year, so could simply be a seasonal thing, and coming out the other side, we are into October of the 6th year of a presidential cycle which has generated positive 6 month returns 15 of 16 times for with an average of +16%, so probably a good time to be buying.
The takeout of one of my Canadian stocks (NHG) happens next week, so I will be getting 9% of my portfolio back in cash, so the timing is very interesting and right now, I think I would redeploy back into the market over the next few weeks, but obviously will be thinking a lot.
I ended up bailing on everything today. Took a 4% hit today. I'm still up a good amount this year which is why I have a bit of an itchy trigger finger. Had a good feeling on this when I thought about it more yesterday but should have realized that Friday was a golden opportunity to sell. The market reversed down hard and those were all being held up, presumably because of the BABA IPO is my assumption. With the crash in the shippers I wonder if something worse is going on in China than we know. Maybe BABA milked the market at the top knowing what was coming down the pike for China?
Yep, perhaps China comes in below expectation since it seems they have to keep stimulating that's got to be making people nervous?
Europe isn't doing well either, BACML issued a warning their stance has become more cautious of Europe and the expectation of meeting targets are pessimistic.
GOOG - Looks like a double top, if no such thing as a triple top either that was it or it's gonna break through next time? AKAM - Maybe watch this one to see if today's move is a knockout and if not then assume GOOG is gonna shoot through on the next attempt?
Or, we may have just witnessed the last hurrah's, dunno.
Always tough to know when we're in the moment huh? I think I mentioned this before but I've always looked at prior market tops and wondered why more people couldn't see the obvious signs like divergences / economic weakness etc but it's hard to do that when you've been conditioned to buying dips for so long. Think about some of the negative signs we have seen lately: oil and copper crashes, small cap stocks significantly diverging, yield curve flattening, significant slowdown in Chinese real estate market, slowdown in Europe. My best guess is this will blow over since the economy seems to be doing well in the US. But there are some signs of weakness.
Another thing I think about is the US real estate market...in many areas prices go bid up so high that the average person that is needed to fuel a sustainable recovery have been left out. Housing is a big part of the US economy. In places like San Diego you have to have a pretty high salary to afford homes...much much higher than the national average given the average home prices.
Perhaps the thing to keep in mind is rates cannot go up else the effect would put the US-gov in the hot seat to create real solutions?
EWZ - Amazon jungle is a pretty vast carbon credit mechanism,, how much land has MS managed to lease there? Those credits are gonna offset or supplement their LNG export expenses, right? Will energy transport pay the toll for carbon credits, or will the producers?
I'm saying that tongue in cheek of course. could be a sign for more weakness but the market is still quite strong and the economy isn't weakening which is what happens heading into every bear market.
Yeah, no idea on that, definite weakness though, taking gains I guess and getting out of stuff that just isn't viable risk too high. HDSN - An anti-global warming gas play is hanging in there despite insider sales telegraph some lack of confidence? This one deserves to shoot up based on the theme, not sure about the financial part but carbon credits might be such a huge play I think about it all the time.
Almost certainly throwing my money away, but bought 100 SPY December 215 calls (10000 shares) for $1,700.
If we get a 15% up move in the markets to SPY 230 and I actually held them through, would be worth $150,000.
Maybe it's a bad sign for the markets that I'm even doing this as I haven't bought options in years, but seems like a reasonable risk/reward given the opportunity for a year-end run and the year 6 of the presidential cycle and the tendency for stocks to have a good run before a rate increase.
Wow, that sounds like a nice long shot that might be a winner.
Does the presidential cycle include a Republican win sell the news event? Not a prediction by any stretch of the imagination, I was one quietly rooting for an independent Scotland, LOL
BC - Boat sales seem to be really strong this summer, they're expensive as hell but the nicest one's loaded with features and construction methods rolling off the lines that have ever been made.
Gosh I had a tough time not buying stuff back today. Very tempting to buy stuff that is beaten down but I think I need to just walk away from this market for a few days, enjoy some freedom and take a breather before I whittle my hard earned gains away.
it's pretty damn near close to a bottom in terms of the oversold readings for the market (see $NYMO: -80 is usually a good buy signal). maybe we get one more big down day at some point over next week to put in a floor.
yeah it's a tough one here man. just looking at the chart it seems like it's gotta hold here soon.
man, most stuff that i've wanted to or gotten long in the past month have really taken it on the chin except GOOGL and PCRX. i see a lot of potential setups in the momentum companies but no sense in forcing trades just yet.
But we've got high put/calls, very bad market breadth, small caps underperforming, etc. and the selling Friday and today has felt a bit indescriminate, so I think we are close.
Doesn't seem like we have excesses like in 2000, 2007 to have a major correction like those, but a 2010/2011 one is certainly possible.
The big unquantifiable risk is the overpriced bond market. You could easily say it is in a bubble, and no-one really has any experience in how those unwind. I'm assuming it is controlled and gradual over time, but if bond holder start panicking and dumping bonds indiscriminately, you could see a fast spike in yields which hurts all other assets.
Man every time I look at BID it makes me question the strength of the market. Am I missing something with that stock? Are they being marginalized by the internet?
Watching a little of the fast money halftime show. They discussed whether or not BABA IPO marked a market top and most of the guys basically laughing it off. They also did a poll on the same thing to viewers I guess and the results were 67% said no top. Could be a contrarian thing. Not sure. But better to see sentiment like that if you're looking for a pullback.
Or how about the US gov should hand out rationing tickets, would that flip the consumer back into the mindless "gotta have this" mode of the early 2000's?
HIMX - You guys notice this one keeps inching up? Past couple day look iffy but might be a candidate for the future if the sky falls?
yeah i looked at the HIMX chart last night. it is going through the same pattern all of those went through, particularly EJ/SFUN. i'd have to assume it goes back down to $6 again.
Assuming this is another 4-6% or so pullback which I suspect it is, I'll be looking for some positive divergences in the Russell 2000 to suggest that its time to get back into those high growth momentum stocks. I don't think that trade is dead, just delayed a bit. I'm thinking the RUT stays above 1083 at the very least...possibly even above 1107 (Aug lows)...while the S&P drops another 4% or so. That's why I chose SPXS over TZA, just think there's going to be a positive divergence at some point to signal time to get back into the growth stocks.
DVY - This chart looks like iH&S to me, much like the AKAM that arguably sorta kinda fruited but not by my definition b/c those gains are gone by-by already. Insider selling too, which doesn't impress me. SPLK - Gonna break up and out maybe? See the breakaway gap from end of Aug with flag now.
I swear I'm seeing these kinds of charts (AHP) all over the place. FB / TWTR / FSLR / YELP / ZU / NQ / SFUN / BITA / YY / SPLK / LNKD / BAC higher on my lists. Not exactly inspiring. Seems to me its a bunch of short covering
Took some SPXS off the table at $24.54 despite it going to what I think will be around $27. The only reason for doing so is I'm reminded of the simple fact that only 1 time in the past 3 years a gap down in these triple leveraged ETFs didn't fill the following day. 1 time. Right now SPXS is trading at $24.54 vs closing price of $24.37.
Screw it...sold out of the entire position. was all in on it and feel like booking a 2%+ 1-day gain. Hoping we get a small gap up tomorrow as I believe that would be the worst opening for bulls. The best opening would be a sharp gap down, with strength in the momentum stocks like you saw today that creates a positive divergence, followed by a reversal. I'm open to either option. A big gap up is something I'm not sure what I would do with.
AAPL - No more free data for US intelligence agencies ("Intelligence"?), good for likes of SPLK/????
ReplyDeleteSCOK - Down a mere 29% today at close, sure why not 30%?... PLUG was down a little too, closed July gap up maybe?
ReplyDeleteMust be capital raisins for BABA IPO?
$53B for Ukraine aid?
ReplyDeleteAside - EPAM shooting up
MAT - Who benefits from low energy costs, will there be an extra Barbie under the tree this Christmas?
ReplyDeleteConsumer discretionary would be the big winner with travel companies at the top of the list, in my opinion.
DeleteSTM - Looks like the perfect place for a breakout. The reason I've been watching this one is their recent patent describing components of a fusion reactor, LOL.
ReplyDeleteThis is EXACTLY why Scotland shouldn't be independent...WTF is taking so long?? We have a winner 2 minutes after the polls close. Freaking losers...
ReplyDeleteThen again I had the Bucs tonight.
DeleteThis is a joke right? 2000 election...
DeleteAl Gore is one big fat hanging chad. There. I said it.
Deleteyou go girl!
Delete....sizzle, snap baby!
DeleteEeeewwww!!!!
DeleteBABA - Just announced a stock buyback?
ReplyDeleteMITK- The smart ones are the first to head out the door.
ReplyDeleteGOOG - Kicks ass, I love it! :)
ReplyDeleteMAT - Sunk right back down, I didn't buy any but WTF, why sell here?
ReplyDeleteTrades like it Hasbro(ken)!
DeleteCrude oil - Over investment creates over production, just like PMs
ReplyDeleteORI - Okay, back in @ $14.94, $0.03 HIGHER than I sold y-day original size and this time I will add if it goes lower.
ReplyDeleteAdded @ $14.82 - So soon, sheesh!
DeleteBXE - How do we like them apples?
ReplyDeleteNow, can we short this market or wait till Big BUBA trades???
ReplyDeleteDBC - Commodities still flying off shelves.
ReplyDeleteBALT - Hey BALT, where ya going????
ReplyDeleteWow, right where I had my SDS bid yesterday, if only I'd stayed the course...
ReplyDeleteMAT - Cancelled my bid, been getting too deep into the doo-doo.
ReplyDeleteBABA - Up $22, but trading $0.40 off the low of day?
TD report out today showing BXE had 5 of the top 20 wells in Alberta/BC last month.
ReplyDeleteWow, that's great info, thanks! :)
DeleteIf I'd sold the pop this morning though, coulda' bought it back $0.20 lower?
DeleteStocks are sold, not bought, right?
ReplyDeletehttp://business.financialpost.com/2014/09/18/transcanada-corp-could-be-target-of-activist-u-s-hedge-funds-including-daniel-loebs-third-point/?__lsa=14cd-32f1
Twits comment of the day...
ReplyDelete$ANR This is going to zero... Along with all my money
Boy do I know that feeling.....
DeleteA crappy day for me with the Dowup nicely the and S%P 500 up, but most of my stocks down.
ReplyDeleteI guess the small caps (IWM) are down 1.25%, so that is why.
More rotation going on.
No idea of what a good day might feel like they're so few. I guess small caps are labor intensive so if labor expense rises that takes a bite out of the bottom line. We had a services based workforce not so long ago? NCR shakeout in progress?
DeleteOn the day of the Alibaba IPO, emerging markets are selling off. Perfect example of the Market ensuring maximum frustration.
ReplyDeleteThe US indexes continue to print new highs each day, but leadership has been narrow. Small caps, emerging markets, energy, and commodities have been selling off- there’s a huge divergence under the hood.
Stopping out of EEM here for a -0.6% hit. None of my recent chips have paid off- clearly either I’m ‘off,’ or the markets are signaling ‘risk off.’ I’m betting most hedge funds have had a difficult time as well. Unlike hedge funds, however, one of my preferred strategies is cash.
I don't get the connection, didn't markets do this with the most recent large IPO, FB I think it was?
DeleteTSN - Would it be any surprise if PRBC bought this company out some time in the near future?
ReplyDeleteORI - Hold onto UR hat, here we go for the ground floor.
ReplyDeleteOn the bright side, today's lower rates might help but not sure how much considering refinancings remained in the toilet last report as rates were making new lows?
ReplyDeleteTBT - 20 days around the world and $2 in two days; needed to write a short commentary in an effort to capture the move.
ReplyDeleteInteresting to see that most of my holdings were up today despite the Russell 2000 being down so much. GOOGL, ZU, LNKD all up. YELP down marginally. I wonder if this reverses hard on Monday.
ReplyDeleteLooks like TZA (not TNA) was the play huh?
ReplyDeleteI believe the China internets could take a further beating soon.
JDST looks dynamite.
Catching up to DUST, India not buying gold any more?
DeleteI was pretty impressed with Ma while listening to him today, the guy is a kind of superman.
ReplyDeleteORI - Rated by Moody's today:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/old-republic-rated-baa3-moodys-202502944.html
Yeah I saw that. Seems good to me. I understand their keeping the holding company rating lower than the 2 main operating units as there is some risk, but if you read their confernce call transcripts, the risk is very, very low. But also that is why we get it cheap. Otherwise the stock would be at $20 now.
DeleteSo, interesting that TOF's growthy type stocks did well yesterday and my more value oriented portfolio did poorly (the European finanicals were a bright spot) and 2nd's Emerging markets and commodity plays not working and CP's just general market frustration.
ReplyDeleteNot sure if it means anything to the broader market trend - it could just be market noise and the BABA IPO process playing out as TOF suggested (and we should have listened!).
But when I step back and take a look at the longer term charts, the large cap indexes SPY, QQQ, DIA, RSP are all still in uptrends.
The small caps IWM, IWC, TNA are still in basing patterns for 2014 after an exceptional 2 years.
Plus, if you read Ryan Detrick (who is great with market stats), we are, on average, in the worst week of the year, so could simply be a seasonal thing, and coming out the other side, we are into October of the 6th year of a presidential cycle which has generated positive 6 month returns 15 of 16 times for with an average of +16%, so probably a good time to be buying.
The takeout of one of my Canadian stocks (NHG) happens next week, so I will be getting 9% of my portfolio back in cash, so the timing is very interesting and right now, I think I would redeploy back into the market over the next few weeks, but obviously will be thinking a lot.
TOF- Don't your have the BALT/SB/NM tripple play still?
ReplyDeleteHell no. I got stopped out. Not sure yet what to do. Considering re entering but I still have reservations about them given their exposure to coal
DeleteWell, it looks to me like $US took another leap higher so that's probably something to do with the action I'm witnessing.
ReplyDeleteRecent comments noted: "Wilbur Ross: Deflation, not inflation, is the bigger concern"
Could be. The chart pattern sure seems to fit and logically it makes sense.
ReplyDeleteNext couple weeks will be interesting.
Balt, where ya going???
ReplyDeleteGM - Oh come on.....
ReplyDeleteBXE - Anything considerably more than -0.10 and close to -0.20 seems like a good flip.
ReplyDeleteLooks like my theory about the growth stocks is about to be tested here. Most of them are holding barely. The close will be telling I think.
ReplyDeleteJapanese vehicles are now cheaper than Korean vehicles?
ReplyDeleteShippers. Must be coal related, although other than working off stockpiles it still needs to be shipped.
ReplyDeleteDid you guys see the news about MS building a CNG export facility? Pretty interesting.
DeleteNo didn't see that but I'll be shocked if natty gets exported before the day I die. :)
DeleteBXE - I'm down 22% with a large for me position, not a very good entry looks like.
ReplyDeleteLoos like a portfolio crash in progress, man what a bad day.
ReplyDeleteI think I've seen enough to suggest this isn't coming back. Clearing out of half of my positions, might do 100% depending on close.
ReplyDeleteI ended up bailing on everything today. Took a 4% hit today. I'm still up a good amount this year which is why I have a bit of an itchy trigger finger. Had a good feeling on this when I thought about it more yesterday but should have realized that Friday was a golden opportunity to sell. The market reversed down hard and those were all being held up, presumably because of the BABA IPO is my assumption. With the crash in the shippers I wonder if something worse is going on in China than we know. Maybe BABA milked the market at the top knowing what was coming down the pike for China?
DeleteYep, perhaps China comes in below expectation since it seems they have to keep stimulating that's got to be making people nervous?
DeleteEurope isn't doing well either, BACML issued a warning their stance has become more cautious of Europe and the expectation of meeting targets are pessimistic.
Well, gold is green now so maybe we have a chance to see the $US come off or level out?
ReplyDeleteGOOG - Looks like a double top, if no such thing as a triple top either that was it or it's gonna break through next time?
ReplyDeleteAKAM - Maybe watch this one to see if today's move is a knockout and if not then assume GOOG is gonna shoot through on the next attempt?
Or, we may have just witnessed the last hurrah's, dunno.
Always tough to know when we're in the moment huh? I think I mentioned this before but I've always looked at prior market tops and wondered why more people couldn't see the obvious signs like divergences / economic weakness etc but it's hard to do that when you've been conditioned to buying dips for so long. Think about some of the negative signs we have seen lately: oil and copper crashes, small cap stocks significantly diverging, yield curve flattening, significant slowdown in Chinese real estate market, slowdown in Europe. My best guess is this will blow over since the economy seems to be doing well in the US. But there are some signs of weakness.
DeleteAnother thing I think about is the US real estate market...in many areas prices go bid up so high that the average person that is needed to fuel a sustainable recovery have been left out. Housing is a big part of the US economy. In places like San Diego you have to have a pretty high salary to afford homes...much much higher than the national average given the average home prices.
DeleteRents are really high in a lot of places because of this issue so its definitely squeezing people.
DeleteGOOG - Notice the large volume into strength Friday, makes me think today will be red.
ReplyDeleteFriday was OpEx which I think skewed a lot of volume on charts.
DeletePerhaps the thing to keep in mind is rates cannot go up else the effect would put the US-gov in the hot seat to create real solutions?
ReplyDeleteEWZ - Amazon jungle is a pretty vast carbon credit mechanism,, how much land has MS managed to lease there? Those credits are gonna offset or supplement their LNG export expenses, right? Will energy transport pay the toll for carbon credits, or will the producers?
AET - Buy on this, looks like iH&S, too.
ReplyDeleteFNMA - Wow, huge plunge on this one, news?
ReplyDeleteI literally was just looking at that. Look at the moves in PEIX PLUG FNMA and other higher risk momentum names. Coming bear market?
DeleteI'm saying that tongue in cheek of course. could be a sign for more weakness but the market is still quite strong and the economy isn't weakening which is what happens heading into every bear market.
DeleteYeah, no idea on that, definite weakness though, taking gains I guess and getting out of stuff that just isn't viable risk too high.
DeleteHDSN - An anti-global warming gas play is hanging in there despite insider sales telegraph some lack of confidence? This one deserves to shoot up based on the theme, not sure about the financial part but carbon credits might be such a huge play I think about it all the time.
CNET - Taking this one off here, two consecutive days up weasel play overextended. (similar to IFON)
ReplyDeleteha nice move.
DeleteEVER - this one doesn't look bad on a total market rout, should recover nicely as opposed to trending down for years and years?
ReplyDeleteMAT - Down but not out?
ReplyDeleteBALT - Wow, gone down crazy.
ReplyDeleteAlmost certainly throwing my money away, but bought 100 SPY December 215 calls (10000 shares) for $1,700.
ReplyDeleteIf we get a 15% up move in the markets to SPY 230 and I actually held them through, would be worth $150,000.
Maybe it's a bad sign for the markets that I'm even doing this as I haven't bought options in years, but seems like a reasonable risk/reward given the opportunity for a year-end run and the year 6 of the presidential cycle and the tendency for stocks to have a good run before a rate increase.
Wow, that sounds like a nice long shot that might be a winner.
DeleteDoes the presidential cycle include a Republican win sell the news event? Not a prediction by any stretch of the imagination, I was one quietly rooting for an independent Scotland, LOL
I like it. Good luck man! You can't win without taking some risk. I always remind myself that when I find myself getting scared / bearish.
DeleteAnother one:
Deletehttp://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2014/09/were-nearing-the-low-of-the-presidential-election-cycle.html
yeah i read this one too. very interesting stuff.
DeleteRockefellers pledge to reduce O&G holding by $60B?
ReplyDeleteTA - Looks like a big bull flag, just doesn't seem possible or likely.
ReplyDeleteHPT - Another at bottom of range, not sure if we watch this one.
ReplyDeleteBC - Boat sales seem to be really strong this summer, they're expensive as hell but the nicest one's loaded with features and construction methods rolling off the lines that have ever been made.
ReplyDeletePII - Indian motorcycles have been knocking it out of the park, medium rare or shoe leather headed for road rash?
ReplyDeleteCanadian O&G activism... These articles give me no confidence considering the US producers are getting their teeth knocked out too.
ReplyDeleteDD - Who makes polyester resins for boats and all things laminated fiberglass, DD?
ReplyDeleteDD - Holy crap, look at that chart.
DeleteDD/EMN/ASH - I think I recall these in the single digits price?
DeleteDKS - Fall/winter hunting anyone? Gas up the truck and get a case on ice.
ReplyDeleteMKSI - I'd say this iH&S is done.
ReplyDeleteOK admit it who is buying the dip in CRR?
ReplyDeleteNice find, thanks. Almost as if this company became obsolete last month.
DeleteLooks like Saut will be featured this week:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-09-15/masters-in-business-laszlo-birinyi
Gosh I had a tough time not buying stuff back today. Very tempting to buy stuff that is beaten down but I think I need to just walk away from this market for a few days, enjoy some freedom and take a breather before I whittle my hard earned gains away.
ReplyDeleteI was thinking hard about buying too (probably airplane leasing company FLY), then I got talking to my daughter and the markets were closed.
DeleteBut probably not a bad thing to wait and see how tomorrow starts up anyhow.
it's pretty damn near close to a bottom in terms of the oversold readings for the market (see $NYMO: -80 is usually a good buy signal). maybe we get one more big down day at some point over next week to put in a floor.
DeleteBSLT - I dunno man but if you like shipping then you've got to love today's discount?
ReplyDeleteyeah it's a tough one here man. just looking at the chart it seems like it's gotta hold here soon.
Deleteman, most stuff that i've wanted to or gotten long in the past month have really taken it on the chin except GOOGL and PCRX. i see a lot of potential setups in the momentum companies but no sense in forcing trades just yet.
Wheeeee, that was a blast.
ReplyDeleteWhat we need at this point I think are some layoff announcements.
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteI think we are quite oversold too, so either we bounce pretty soon or this really is the beginning of a real correction.
Hopefully we start hearing about "October is the crash month" soo.
But we've got high put/calls, very bad market breadth, small caps underperforming, etc. and the selling Friday and today has felt a bit indescriminate, so I think we are close.
DeleteI agree...only thing I will say is almost all big selloffs occur from very oversold positions in the market.
DeleteThink: 1987, Sept 2000, Dec 2007, 2010, 2011, etc
DeleteThat is the risk for sure.
DeleteDoesn't seem like we have excesses like in 2000, 2007 to have a major correction like those, but a 2010/2011 one is certainly possible.
The big unquantifiable risk is the overpriced bond market. You could easily say it is in a bubble, and no-one really has any experience in how those unwind. I'm assuming it is controlled and gradual over time, but if bond holder start panicking and dumping bonds indiscriminately, you could see a fast spike in yields which hurts all other assets.
Don't forget quantitative easing on this scale. We have never seen this before. Could have major disruptions in currency markets
DeleteTTM - This stock seems pretty strong to resist today's temptation, is it a trap?
ReplyDeleteMAT - Is this number correct, ROI is 20% ? Not quite as good as AAPL and I don't know what it is for GOOG
ReplyDeleteAGCO - Zacks says outlook looks bleak.
Man every time I look at BID it makes me question the strength of the market. Am I missing something with that stock? Are they being marginalized by the internet?
ReplyDeleteLooks like possible double bottom.
DeleteLooks like volume isn't as great as last time so might fail here?
DeleteChina said today they are not going to provide continued stimulus?
ReplyDeletePNRA - Cramer says buy. Death nell?
ReplyDeleteOUTR - Came back to me! ?!?!?
ReplyDeleteGSFVF - This one's been lifting.
ReplyDeleteTA - So what's the story?
ReplyDeleteNot sure how good of an idea this is but long SPXS at $23.96.
ReplyDeleteAt least your playing.
DeleteATHL - Zooming (USA List)
ReplyDeleteLOCK - How about this one?
Not USA list, only upgraded days ago.
DeleteUUP - With this abundance of oil it's not surprising the $US is having a nice rally. This should be bullish for consumer stocks like MAT, I think.
ReplyDeleteBLMN - Sheesh Mark, I trusted you were selling the top?
ReplyDeleteI sold a few days ago right about here I think...maybe a little lower.
DeleteNot sure what the stats are on this but I'm assuming this is a bad sign:
ReplyDeletehttp://stocktwits.com/media/934145
Basically a sign of bad breadth which is usually existent at important intermediate term tops. But not all instances of bad breadth equals tops.
You must be referring to halitosis?
Deleteindeed
DeleteWatching a little of the fast money halftime show. They discussed whether or not BABA IPO marked a market top and most of the guys basically laughing it off. They also did a poll on the same thing to viewers I guess and the results were 67% said no top. Could be a contrarian thing. Not sure. But better to see sentiment like that if you're looking for a pullback.
ReplyDeleteSPXS - Looks like $24.32 is the price to beat.
DeleteA refreshing change would be to buy something and watch it go up.
ReplyDeletePAL - Does this one deserve mentioning it's up 9%, why would someone buy this POS?
ReplyDeleteOr how about the US gov should hand out rationing tickets, would that flip the consumer back into the mindless "gotta have this" mode of the early 2000's?
ReplyDeleteHIMX - You guys notice this one keeps inching up? Past couple day look iffy but might be a candidate for the future if the sky falls?
yeah i looked at the HIMX chart last night. it is going through the same pattern all of those went through, particularly EJ/SFUN. i'd have to assume it goes back down to $6 again.
DeletePDCO/KIM - Added to USA1 list.
ReplyDeleteKMI, pardon my lysdexia.
DeleteI thought it was the drinking...
DeleteAssuming this is another 4-6% or so pullback which I suspect it is, I'll be looking for some positive divergences in the Russell 2000 to suggest that its time to get back into those high growth momentum stocks. I don't think that trade is dead, just delayed a bit. I'm thinking the RUT stays above 1083 at the very least...possibly even above 1107 (Aug lows)...while the S&P drops another 4% or so. That's why I chose SPXS over TZA, just think there's going to be a positive divergence at some point to signal time to get back into the growth stocks.
ReplyDeleteORI - Puked my shares @ $14.46
ReplyDeleteTrying BALT @ 4.47
ReplyDeleteYRCW- Hard to believe there are any buyers here today.
ReplyDeleteFMD - Looks like hammer today, this big fatty needs a shower!
ReplyDeleteDVY - This chart looks like iH&S to me, much like the AKAM that arguably sorta kinda fruited but not by my definition b/c those gains are gone by-by already. Insider selling too, which doesn't impress me.
ReplyDeleteSPLK - Gonna break up and out maybe? See the breakaway gap from end of Aug with flag now.
CYTX- Christ, I think I sold this POS at like 1.70ish.
ReplyDeleteAHP knocked back into May now.
DeleteWow, I lost tack of that one.
DeleteBB, you still like it?
I swear I'm seeing these kinds of charts (AHP) all over the place. FB / TWTR / FSLR / YELP / ZU / NQ / SFUN / BITA / YY / SPLK / LNKD / BAC higher on my lists. Not exactly inspiring. Seems to me its a bunch of short covering
DeleteSPX - Bears are such pussies.
ReplyDeleteEPD - Remind me why we passed on this:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-enterprise-products-partners-continue-170050218.html
BABA imbalance.
ReplyDeleteAs in drunken stuper? :)
DeleteNice reaction out of BBBY today. Up over 20% from the lows after last earnings report.
ReplyDeleteTook some SPXS off the table at $24.54 despite it going to what I think will be around $27. The only reason for doing so is I'm reminded of the simple fact that only 1 time in the past 3 years a gap down in these triple leveraged ETFs didn't fill the following day. 1 time. Right now SPXS is trading at $24.54 vs closing price of $24.37.
ReplyDeleteI guess I should say a gap up didn't fill
DeleteSold more at $24.53. Down to about 60% of position.
DeleteScrew it...sold out of the entire position. was all in on it and feel like booking a 2%+ 1-day gain. Hoping we get a small gap up tomorrow as I believe that would be the worst opening for bulls. The best opening would be a sharp gap down, with strength in the momentum stocks like you saw today that creates a positive divergence, followed by a reversal. I'm open to either option. A big gap up is something I'm not sure what I would do with.
DeleteHow are the whisky stocks like Jack Daniels doing?
ReplyDelete"Seems to me its a bunch of short covering"
ReplyDeleteI didn't think of that, sharp thinking.