tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post3241692280720610288..comments2023-10-28T01:56:57.243-07:00Comments on Trading Topics: 12/3/17 December BlueprintMarkWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10115276845896649502noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-12026491944256034782017-12-15T09:22:12.929-08:002017-12-15T09:22:12.929-08:00XES has pulled back noticeably from my last sale a...XES has pulled back noticeably from my last sale a few days ago. But BTE has pulled back even more from it's recent peak. Just bought some BTE at $2.86.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-2567640631467536022017-12-14T12:33:45.733-08:002017-12-14T12:33:45.733-08:00After rallying hard for a week (since reentry Dece...After rallying hard for a week (since reentry December 7), most indexes appear to be losing momentum. In my opinion, the best setup for a year-end rally is a correction over the next few trading days. It's also my opinion that a correction will occur.<br /><br />(a) Despite pullbacks of about -0.5% in EEM (emerging markets)/ FXI ('H' Shares)/ ASHR,('A' Shares). I have an overall gain of ~+1.6% in these ETFs. Gains I want to protect! All were sold this morning.<br /><br />(b) I also have significant losses in EWZ (Brazil)/ HIMX (Himax)/ BABA (Alibaba). Losses were taken this morning. <br /><br />(c) I closed VEIEX (emerging markets) and VTWSX (world market) yesterday for gains of +1.6% and +1.1% from December 7 entries. <br /><br />Overall gain for the portfolio will be about +0.7%, which although respectable for a one-week trade also tells me momentum is slowing. There is some news right now interjecting some uncertainty into passage of the tax reform bill. I don't know if it's enough to kill momentum, but a pullback is what the rally needs to continue. 2nd_avehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11891113186978672464noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-44875536851035674942017-12-13T19:31:13.438-08:002017-12-13T19:31:13.438-08:00If NMM does not decline tomorrow but instead takes...If NMM does not decline tomorrow but instead takes out yesterday's high, then it will likely go much higher. Placed a buy stop limit on it at $2.35/$2.40.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-12087457967207267202017-12-13T11:37:14.894-08:002017-12-13T11:37:14.894-08:00Lucky timing in my two sales yesterday. :)Lucky timing in my two sales yesterday. :)Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-50519604596103910172017-12-12T08:31:55.102-08:002017-12-12T08:31:55.102-08:00Also, just sold at $2.34 the NMM I picked up last ...Also, just sold at $2.34 the NMM I picked up last week at $2.10. I am on vacation right now, and I figured I'd pay for half of it with these sales. :)Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-82387170534270840402017-12-12T08:28:21.782-08:002017-12-12T08:28:21.782-08:00USO is down today, and its 3-month chart shows tha...USO is down today, and its 3-month chart shows that it might have made another lower high. So I just sold at $16.26 the XES shares I purchased last week at $15.58. Yet another lucky ride off the $15.50 support level.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-58292692682518167602017-12-11T09:18:48.245-08:002017-12-11T09:18:48.245-08:00Moving up my sell stop limit on XES just below las...Moving up my sell stop limit on XES just below last week lows, to 15.45/15.40.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-42700152552624525402017-12-11T09:15:33.256-08:002017-12-11T09:15:33.256-08:00So *now* ORCL likes the tax bill -- what a joke......So *now* ORCL likes the tax bill -- what a joke...Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-58625548354708310872017-12-08T06:05:19.874-08:002017-12-08T06:05:19.874-08:00Nice reversals in Asia overnight. Early indicatio...Nice reversals in Asia overnight. Early indications are good:<br /><br />Hang Seng +1.2%, Nikkei +1.4% (almost entirely reversing its two-day slide), German DAX +1.2%, Brazil's iBovespa +1%.<br /><br />Premarket bids-> EEM (emerging markets) +1.1%, EWZ (Brazil) +1.7%, FXI (China 'H' Shares) +1.5%. ASHR (China 'A' Shares) +1.26%, HIMX (Himax) +3.4%.2nd_avehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11891113186978672464noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-72965916129469160432017-12-07T12:48:43.565-08:002017-12-07T12:48:43.565-08:00Dip buyers aren't displaying much conviction. ...Dip buyers aren't displaying much conviction. Mid-day spikes in DJIA/ EEM (emerging markets)/ QQQ (Nasdaq 100) have been retraced. EWZ (Brazil) having trouble holding above 39. HIMX (Himax) now down to 11.09.<br /><br />The stock market is tough to game at this juncture, but I'm leaning bullish. My reasons:<br /><br />(a) I think tax reform will rally the indexes several more times before investors fully price it in. Any rallies are likely to be fast and furious-> impossible to play.<br /><br />(b) Seasonality. It's hard to remain bearish in December. Obviously, trying to time moves within the month isn't working well, so I'll have to opt for 'sometime this month.'<br /><br />(c) EEM successfully retested 45.06 this morning (close enough to the lower Bollinger @ 44.98).<br /><br />(d) VT (world market) likewise successfully retested 72.74 this morning (around the 10-day moving average). <br /><br />Making the following trades:<br /><br />(a) Reopening ASHR (China 'A' Shares) @ 30.1x (a -0.86% discount to yesterday's exit).<br /><br />(b) Reopening a partial position in FXI (China 'H' Shares) @ 44.7x (a -0.15% discount to Wednesday's exit).<br /><br />(c) Reopened EWZ (Brazil) this morning around 38.5x.<br /><br />(d) Reopened a position in HIMX (Himax) this morning around 11.5x (currently 11.10!).<br /><br />(e) Will reopen VEIEX/ VTWSX at the close, probably at an average of a +0.25% premium to Wednesday's exits. Offset by better-timed reentries in EWZ/ASHR. Not the best-timed of trades, but that's the way it is (especially with funds that only trade once a day). 2nd_avehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11891113186978672464noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-41126691942065916222017-12-07T10:31:14.789-08:002017-12-07T10:31:14.789-08:00USO is up today. It might have made another higher...USO is up today. It might have made another higher low on the 6-month chart. I just bought some XES at $15.57 and placed a sell stop limit at $15.30/$15.25.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-36529709760034156912017-12-06T13:13:46.658-08:002017-12-06T13:13:46.658-08:00Glad that I covered my short XES puts on Monday. :...Glad that I covered my short XES puts on Monday. :) And I feel lucky to have ridden XES from $15.50 to $16.44 last week! <br /><br />USO might have a decent pullback here, say to the late-September highs of $10.50. XES is taking it on the chin today, dropping well below those late September highs. With oil stocks being so weak, more declines in USO will probably follow. If XES drops to $15 and stalls, then I'll be very tempted to re-enter. Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-56328261160994866202017-12-06T12:34:37.425-08:002017-12-06T12:34:37.425-08:00My last few trades were purely based on momentum (...My last few trades were purely based on momentum (as opposed to valuation). It's not completely clear that momentum has dried up, but I have to respect the price action.<br /><br />It feels like a bull trap here-> traders are trying to rally the markets into the close, and to some extent they're succeeding: EEM (emerging markets) -1.23%, FXI -2.2%, EWZ (Brazil) +1.29% to 40.08, BABA (Alibaba) +2.12% to 172.48-> all at intraday highs. What's missing is the aggressive buying that we've seen all year. <br /><br />When it comes to momentum trades, it's all about confidence. Once traders lose confidence in the pattern, it's over.<br /><br />The key to outperforming the market is to maintain account balances near all-time highs. My last trade took the account down about -1%, and I'm now facing an additional -1% hit. <br /><br />I'm going to remove risk until there's more clarity in (short term) market direction. Closing FXI (China 'H' Shares) here for a -2.2% loss (FXI closed up yesterday despite the selloff in Hong Kong, which seemed bullish at the time). I plan to exit VEIEX/ VTWSX at the close. 2nd_avehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11891113186978672464noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-29635533268616431402017-12-06T10:25:31.180-08:002017-12-06T10:25:31.180-08:00GDX is close to it's 1-year support level of $...GDX is close to it's 1-year support level of $21. Just sold some Jan $21 puts on GDX at $0.41. Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-65579435636996506122017-12-06T06:42:26.987-08:002017-12-06T06:42:26.987-08:00Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined -600 points ove...Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined -600 points overnight, on top of a -300-point decline on Tuesday. Because of my positioning (overweight China/ Emerging Markets), price action is generating a potential sell signal.<br /><br />(a) BABA (Alibaba) off at the opening bell @ 170.7x for a -2.3% loss.<br />(b) EWZ (Brazil) off @ 39.8x for +2.1% gain.<br />(c) ASHR (China 'A' Shares) off @ 30.5x for a +0.5% gain.<br /><br />FXI (China 'H' Shares) currently trading off -2.68%. I'll keep an eye on it.<br /><br />50/50 chance I will opt to close VEIEX (emerging markets)/ VTWSX (world market) end of day. It's all about the close. EEM/ VT currently off -1.58%/ -0.37%.<br />2nd_avehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11891113186978672464noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-33233790654756992062017-12-05T10:32:58.499-08:002017-12-05T10:32:58.499-08:00BDI is ripping higher, while NMM is still below it...BDI is ripping higher, while NMM is still below its 6-month highs. Just bought some NMM at $2.10.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-18422172369347684872017-12-04T11:18:17.653-08:002017-12-04T11:18:17.653-08:00Is the new tax bill bad for ORCL?Is the new tax bill bad for ORCL?Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-80858217014503373182017-12-04T11:14:55.229-08:002017-12-04T11:14:55.229-08:00Strange to see USO down 1.5% and XES up 1.4%. Took...Strange to see USO down 1.5% and XES up 1.4%. Took this opportunity to cover at $0.05 December $15-strike puts on XES that I sold at $0.70 in early November. Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.com