tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post3329830092419837950..comments2023-10-28T01:56:57.243-07:00Comments on Trading Topics: 11/3/10 Out In The CountryMarkWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10115276845896649502noreply@blogger.comBlogger99125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-47911954014446500502010-11-04T18:30:26.175-07:002010-11-04T18:30:26.175-07:00new postnew post2nd_avehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11891113186978672464noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-21673491778790560372010-11-04T18:05:28.144-07:002010-11-04T18:05:28.144-07:00"I actually seriously thought the Fed wasn..."I actually seriously thought the Fed wasn't going to do QE2 because the recent economic reports have been pretty solid."<br /><br />Well, they haven't actually but I think they intend to b/c they keep repeating that growth is too slow.<br /><br />Could it be they're running against the clock in terms of tax receipts? All of a sudden there seems to be concern over the plight of the middle class!<br /><br />This is where they should've started or at least worked in parallel, everything has been so serialized it's frustrating and expensive.Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-8731872245266248972010-11-04T17:59:07.706-07:002010-11-04T17:59:07.706-07:00David, your last post sounds like a case for buy a...David, your last post sounds like a case for buy and hold.<br /><br />Silly me, I was thinking about selling gmo soon in preparation for a pullback but considering the big picture outlook that might not be such a good idea.Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-60737460712891058942010-11-04T17:54:23.114-07:002010-11-04T17:54:23.114-07:00David - I think it's very important to remain ...David - I think it's very important to remain detached from the impact of money on your style of living if you want to be a successful investor. It's tough because it's human nature to think this way. <br /><br />S&P 1400 to 1500...certainly possible. Like I've said before, I am seeing / hearing a lot of positive things going on in my business and my friend's companies. <br /><br />I actually seriously thought the Fed wasn't going to do QE2 because the recent economic reports have been pretty solid. With yesterday's announcement, it make me pretty sure that we're now at the risk of seeing significant inflation soon to the point where the genie may have already been let out of the bottle. I was shocked to see gold down yesterday and had a damn good feeling it was an abberation. I think the Fed is once again behind the curve on their thinking. 6 months ago I would have never thought this but it's amazing how quickly sentiment can change...even your own sentiment.teamonfuegonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-88230762391467566602010-11-04T17:29:51.975-07:002010-11-04T17:29:51.975-07:00Guys, did you check recently the consumer spending...Guys, did you check recently the consumer spending graph at http://www.consumerindexes.com/index.html? This was the biggest "fly in the ointment" for the economy -- consumers not spending money. However, this graph is turning up now, which is an expected result of their consumer index leveling off after a sharp drop. If the index itself stays flat, then their percentage YOY change will return to 0. Since most of the numbers in the economy are presented as YOY comparisons, even the mere fact that consumer spending stopped falling will now present a very positive force on the various econ statistics that was hampered by the falling consumer spending over the past year. Now, combine the growing economy with money printing by the Fed and you get the best of both worlds, which can indeed justify S&P at 1400 to 1500 by the end of 2011.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-71736924877976028962010-11-04T17:19:37.116-07:002010-11-04T17:19:37.116-07:00Here are some interesting excerpts from the recent...Here are some interesting excerpts from the recent article by James Kostohryz, titled "Is Greed Good for Investors?"<br /><br />http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/wall-street-movie-money-never-sleeps/11/4/2010/id/30946<br /><br />"I think this sums up the mind frame of successful investors: Investing is a game. It’s just a game that they love to play. It really has little or nothing to do with the money.<br /><br />In this game, the money might just as well be monopoly money. Within this mind frame, money isn't a means to an end; the purpose of money isn't to buy anything -- fancy homes, clothes, cars, or anything else. Money is just a number; it’s just a figure on a computer screen used to keep score. That’s all it is.<br /><br />An investor that cares about the things money can buy -- cars, clothes, prestige, the nice home -- possesses a frame of mind that leads to the investment dark side. Attachment to money (greed) leads to fear, and fear leads to the dark side."<br /><br />I think that's very true. TOF, who I believe has the best YTD return on this blog, mentioned several times that he can afford to lose a large part of his portfolio because he doesn't really need it to survive. That's why he can take calculated risks and invest all his money into small companies like REDF. <br /><br />Is everyone else playing a game here as well? I am. :)Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-2751353747235260412010-11-04T15:52:11.987-07:002010-11-04T15:52:11.987-07:00Thompson Creek Announces Third-Quarter 2010 Revenu...Thompson Creek Announces Third-Quarter 2010 Revenues Up 41% and Cash Flow From Operations Up 143%Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-75238350896798839932010-11-04T15:48:02.279-07:002010-11-04T15:48:02.279-07:00SLW was flying too, this must be like shooting fis...SLW was flying too, this must be like shooting fish in a barrel if you know what you're doing.Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-25860423854074786722010-11-04T15:45:24.362-07:002010-11-04T15:45:24.362-07:00EWJ - Does look as though it broke out today, will...EWJ - Does look as though it broke out today, will Europe dance the QE boogie as well?<br /><br />Put on your Speedos, soon we'll all be swimming in an ocean of fiat!Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-21848197456097722052010-11-04T15:27:56.815-07:002010-11-04T15:27:56.815-07:00port - sorry if i'm rubbing salt in any wounds...port - sorry if i'm rubbing salt in any wounds man...sometimes i just write down what comes to mind when i hear people talk / read people write. i'm so sick of hearing from naysayers about things that it gets me all fired up some times. i don't mean any harm from it. <br /><br />the markets are pretty damn near what i was thinking they would get to and i'm only about 70% long now. if i had one bet that i could make it would be to go long the nikkei. i believe they will fire a counter shot to the QE2 nonsense and their currency will drop. what this does to our markets i don't know. but it should be good for 1,500 nikkei points in a month or so.teamonfuegonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-25150987362055125432010-11-04T15:26:51.799-07:002010-11-04T15:26:51.799-07:00Let them buy BP.Let them buy BP.CInoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-31382320750625829322010-11-04T15:05:02.619-07:002010-11-04T15:05:02.619-07:00XOM - I think of this company as a multinational. ...XOM - I think of this company as a multinational. They all are, essentially, aren't they?<br /><br />The minerals belong to the people though, unless the people have sold the rights.Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-17617334883222143632010-11-04T15:01:11.465-07:002010-11-04T15:01:11.465-07:00You could insert the word "rent" in ther...You could insert the word "rent" in there somewhere but every increase in trade helps. ;)Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-20227647066409077642010-11-04T14:58:07.671-07:002010-11-04T14:58:07.671-07:00CP: If China Corp put in a bid to by XOM, what do ...CP: If China Corp put in a bid to by XOM, what do you think would happen?<br /><br />POT.to; must be a reason they put in a bid. I don't think it will be bankrupt soon. I am in agreement that for now this takeover is on hold. They are not going to create jobs with this buy. And they can't move these good paying jobs overseas. Prefer they create jobs instead of maintaining them. We have had a number of foreign takeovers like this and we have lost employment a result. Look at Vale and their purchase of INCO. One of the longest strikes in history in Sudbury, Ontario.<br /><br />CP: We have had a modified socialism in Canada for 50 years. So this is nothing new for our modern history.Canaian Investornoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-36051615455073219822010-11-04T14:54:04.398-07:002010-11-04T14:54:04.398-07:00OK, I'll play Bernanke's game today and wi...OK, I'll play Bernanke's game today and will do some consumer spending now to prove that his "wealth effect" theory is working -- keep printing money, Ben! :)<br /><br />I'll be buying the Spanish Absinthe called Obsello. Here are the reviews for it on the web, which are very positive:<br /><br />http://www.wormwoodsociety.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=432<br /><br />The previous absinthe I bought, Le Tourment Vert, actually has very poor reviews -- I should have read them before I bought it in the first place. However, it was the cheapest absinthe in BevMo, and I started with it just to set a low benchmark for all the future ones I buy.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-11720546222821861782010-11-04T14:48:41.717-07:002010-11-04T14:48:41.717-07:00VXX or gold? Well, that should be a no-brainer IM...VXX or gold? Well, that should be a no-brainer IMO.Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-62370473908695401222010-11-04T14:37:56.740-07:002010-11-04T14:37:56.740-07:00BIDU - I'd look for a retest of the 20SMA?
AAP...BIDU - I'd look for a retest of the 20SMA?<br />AAPL - Looks headed for upper trendline?<br />POT - Are heads rolling up north yet? The price seems kinda high if socialism is the new Canada?Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-84774517792727180842010-11-04T14:31:53.393-07:002010-11-04T14:31:53.393-07:00"I am afraid, very afraid."
This is wha..."I am afraid, very afraid."<br /><br />This is what happens when the world's largest economy is held in a sustained trade imbalance for over two decades while the currency is artificially propped up. The consumption binge precedes a major hangover and the currency takes a sudden hit.<br /><br />It only works until it doesn't.Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-72431559454883046472010-11-04T14:16:13.530-07:002010-11-04T14:16:13.530-07:00Congrats to all you guys for making a boatload of ...Congrats to all you guys for making a boatload of dough. I'm one of those nonbelievers that TOF talks about all the time so I only made a little dough since I'm only half invested in my long term accounts while I keep dinking around with SDS in my short term account. One good thing about SDS and SSO is that I'm pretty disciplined using stops and it came in handy today.<br /><br />Even the crap stocks in my long term accounts went up. GMO only lifted a penny though. Hmmm.<br /><br />Of course I had to make an emotional play so I bought back in to XOM and sold the Nov 70 strike calls which puts my net cost around $68.96. My previous XOM shares were called away a couple of weeks ago. If you are going to make an emotional play, at least make it with something you don't mind holding for awhile AND something that pays dividends.<br /><br />I also sold 1 Nov 130 put on FSLR. I left work early but all I heard about this morn was $100.00 oil so I think that supports FSLR. IF the stock gets put to me in a couple of weeks I'll turn around and sell a Dec or Jan 130 strike or better call. <br /><br />I'm going to try a new strategy in the day trading account. I'm going to STOP dinking around with SSO and SDS and start with 30 shares of SPY. The commision will be a little high but I want to see if I can get the mechanic's of entry, exit, and stop placement down a little better. I'll come up with a trading plan this weekend and start implementing it next week. I'll post the results for review.<br /><br />Now, what do we all thinkg about AAPL, BIDU, and POT?port2013https://www.blogger.com/profile/18051519545404909737noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-88815212870145249952010-11-04T14:12:45.887-07:002010-11-04T14:12:45.887-07:00David, yes, I held onto too much cash today, shoul...David, yes, I held onto too much cash today, should've bought gdxj yesterday... up only 2% here today.Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-10251234401133605362010-11-04T14:06:13.929-07:002010-11-04T14:06:13.929-07:00CP -- I mean the total account value. My portfolio...CP -- I mean the total account value. My portfolio is about 1/4 in cash now, so if new opportunities appear, I'll be able to take advantage of them as well.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-74980506652325935342010-11-04T13:56:27.301-07:002010-11-04T13:56:27.301-07:00While Rome burns (USA), the traders on Wall Street...While Rome burns (USA), the traders on Wall Street party, along with their cohorts in DC.<br /><br />I am afraid, very afraid.<br /><br />CP: yes, best day this month with an exclamation mark.Canaian Investornoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-88666523022549370502010-11-04T13:41:56.818-07:002010-11-04T13:41:56.818-07:00I gather the employment numbers aren't going t...I gather the employment numbers aren't going to be pretty, the FED has anticipated this.Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-88918538112686229432010-11-04T13:25:13.453-07:002010-11-04T13:25:13.453-07:00holy moonshot higher in gold. if we get a combina...holy moonshot higher in gold. if we get a combination of average employment numbers + renewed fears on ireland/portugal then gold will most likely ramp higher quickly.<br /><br />FD:<br />long UGL, GLD callsteamonfuegonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-47968935222410261842010-11-04T13:24:00.172-07:002010-11-04T13:24:00.172-07:00CADC - Wouldn't it be realistic to believe thi...CADC - Wouldn't it be realistic to believe this one will exceed $5.50 simply considering their track record (pun intended) of the past several quarters?Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.com