tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post3752487164958938971..comments2023-10-28T01:56:57.243-07:00Comments on Trading Topics: 9/22/10 BrickMarkWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10115276845896649502noreply@blogger.comBlogger103125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-37404450085623016152010-09-22T17:31:39.312-07:002010-09-22T17:31:39.312-07:00new postnew post2nd_avehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11891113186978672464noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-52974073057706955892010-09-22T16:35:36.535-07:002010-09-22T16:35:36.535-07:00David...just my take on this guy.
Re: The Folly ...David...just my take on this guy. <br /><br />Re: The Folly Of Investing Today, (Interesting READ).<br />Submitted by teamonfuego (2177 comments) on Wed, 09/22/2010 - 19:33 #69867 (in reply to #69863)<br />Anyone that has listened to this Denninger guy has lost a lot of money over the past 2 years. The problem is he can't segregate the economy with the markets, much like any permabear can't. His claim that the 10 year Treasurys has always lead the S&P 500 is dead wrong. <br /><br />http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ETNX+Interactive#chart6:symbol=^tnx;range=my;indicator=sma(50,200)+dividend+volume+rsi(7);charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined<br /><br />The above chart shows the long term 10 year chart. As you can see there were plenty of times when the 10 year tumbled significantly yet it didn't result in any decline in the S&P 500. I understand he is only looking at the past 10 years but why do that? Why not look at more data points? <br /><br />This Denninger guy is still calling for a S&P 500 of 200 and change. Puhhhlease. If half of the companies in the S&P 500 went bankrupt and you applied a 5 multiple on earnings of the remaining 250, you would get to about S&P 500 at 200. That's how absurd this call is. <br /><br />I urge the permabears on this board to consider other opinions than this guy. He may have a good take on the shenanigans going on in the mortgage industry and on economic reports but he has had a horrible take on the markets for a while now.teamonfuegonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-90288212048434995302010-09-22T15:41:29.187-07:002010-09-22T15:41:29.187-07:00Analyst65 just made an interesting post on CC, at ...Analyst65 just made an interesting post on CC, at 18:11. <br /><br />There is some truth to it -- I remember that when the yield curve became inverted in 2007, the equities kept moving higher for a few more months and the inverted yield curve was dismissed because "this time was different." Well, it wasn't. If the short-term rate were not pegged at 0, then the recent collapse of the long-term rates would have led to an inverted yield curve. The stock rally between March 2009 and April 2010 has also coincided with a rally in bond yields, so THAT'S what we could say is a NORMAL reaction to fiscal and monetary stimulus. In that light, the recent collapse of bond yields signals that we are not in the same NORMAL environment now. As such, right now is probably not a good time to do buy-and-hold, and instead the recent market rebound might be a great opportunity to go SHORT. That's why I put the sell short stop order under IWM for tomorrow and I am ready to jump in on the short side at the first sign of market reversal.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-68100544096096793732010-09-22T15:22:16.834-07:002010-09-22T15:22:16.834-07:00And thanks for getting me to think about that. I ...And thanks for getting me to think about that. I did experiment before with other exit strategies, but never did get something that worked better down pat.cheapybobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08720367580095655196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-51688790220993467322010-09-22T15:17:08.453-07:002010-09-22T15:17:08.453-07:00e5,
Its either "just me" letting fear t...e5,<br /><br />Its either "just me" letting fear take over and being "relieved" to get rid of whatever for any profit, or something to that effect, because they do it to me on just about EVERY issue I bottom fish. <br /><br />I think the root cause is that I never really did figure out a GOOD way to decide when/how to sell when in profitable territory. The way I'm doing it saves my butt, making me a profit in a waterfall collapse, but gets me out too early when I REALLY DID (surprise!) pick *THE* bottom, I think.<br /><br />As for the mm's catching on to me, I usually only trade any one thing for a day or two, and then choose another issue, so I don't think its that they see my trading pattern.cheapybobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08720367580095655196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-255384625110255882010-09-22T14:38:08.794-07:002010-09-22T14:38:08.794-07:00I figured that instead of trying to short FCX in t...I figured that instead of trying to short FCX in the environment where copper broke out above the $3.50 resistance level and gold is obviously heading higher, I will try shorting IWM, which is also very extended now on a 6-month chart. I have just placed a sell short stop limit order for 300 shares at $65/$64.90. I want to protect my currently net long portfolio if the market starts sliding tomorrow.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-4031660536477148782010-09-22T14:25:48.724-07:002010-09-22T14:25:48.724-07:00CADC - Okay, this may have something to do with th...CADC - Okay, this may have something to do with the recent action, looks like there's some kind of expiration associated with warrants?<br /><br />http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-ACM-Series-A-Preferred-iw-1123658655.html?x=0&.v=1Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-27329594478266031792010-09-22T14:25:06.107-07:002010-09-22T14:25:06.107-07:00cb...bob..........David said...
I had a brief tho...cb...bob..........David said...<br /> I had a brief thought of placing my stop at $84.50, just below the recent congestion area, but I guess they sensed my thoughts and immediately spiked down FCX briefly below $84.50 so as to run my *imaginary* stop! These black box trading algorithms are getting to be very good! :)),,,,,<br />Man, those black box algorithms are tough to compete against. They did stop me out of FCX at $84.30 (for a $40 profit) and then ran it back up. Well, a $40 profit is better than a $400,,,,,,<br /><br />somehow your trading patterns are not subject to being easily picked off.<br /><br />you might back check trades,for volume, length of time span,slope angle as win/lose trade factors. same goes for david's fcx log. the algo is also subject to gigo, really just kids trying to out guess you!<br />you know better than any one else how to find logical terms to deconstruct why & when you change each directional choice.<br /><br />e5Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-81938338420937436452010-09-22T13:44:21.675-07:002010-09-22T13:44:21.675-07:00"The first water ski show at Cypress Gardens ..."The first water ski show at Cypress Gardens was performed in 1941 and was a bit of an accident. Julie Pope, the park founders wife, had sent a photo to the Orlando Sentinel, which they ran, and featured beautiful flowers and skiers in the background. The next day three servicemen showed up and asked what time the water ski show was. Mrs. Pope stated that the ski show was at 3:30 p.m. and asked the gentlemen to enjoy the gardens until that time. Ironically, though, there was no ski show so Mrs. Pope quickly telephoned the local school to have her son, Dick Pope, Jr., round up some friends to perform for the soldiers. She picked the children up promptly at 3 p.m. and the show began exactly on time!"Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-74467544309191993302010-09-22T13:37:34.946-07:002010-09-22T13:37:34.946-07:00I know SNDK has a bearish flag or whatever those b...I know SNDK has a bearish flag or whatever those bullshit artists...err technical analysts say, but I didn't realize that the company has $5.2 Billion in cash ($4.3 Billion net after backing out debt). The market cap is only double that. Aren't they in the iPad and potentially other tablet devices? They have been generated about $350 Million in free cash flow each of the past several quarters...teamonfuegonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-27900389935410302122010-09-22T13:20:27.939-07:002010-09-22T13:20:27.939-07:00Man....Thank God my 3 biggest positions were in th...Man....Thank God my 3 biggest positions were in the green today (SWN/PXP/XCO). Flat on the day. OK, down -.02%MarkWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10115276845896649502noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-17879666558262013152010-09-22T13:04:43.055-07:002010-09-22T13:04:43.055-07:00If I were the pilot, you'd have a hard time ha...If I were the pilot, you'd have a hard time hanging onto your Cypress Garden Specials...Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-11211025404420552182010-09-22T13:02:37.415-07:002010-09-22T13:02:37.415-07:00Remember a couple day ago when S&P just sliced...Remember a couple day ago when S&P just sliced right through 1130? Didn't you ask yourself "WTF?" at the time? I did, there was no contest whatsoever...Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-22497004997373554222010-09-22T12:54:28.320-07:002010-09-22T12:54:28.320-07:00ES imbalance 450M v. 274M.ES imbalance 450M v. 274M.MarkWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10115276845896649502noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-75489308304181812862010-09-22T12:49:19.866-07:002010-09-22T12:49:19.866-07:00Water skiing hun? OK, but can you speed the boat u...Water skiing hun? OK, but can you speed the boat up a little. I'm slowly sinking :)MarkWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10115276845896649502noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-77590325207580928332010-09-22T12:47:49.654-07:002010-09-22T12:47:49.654-07:00Man, those black box algorithms are tough to compe...Man, those black box algorithms are tough to compete against. They did stop me out of FCX at $84.30 (for a $40 profit) and then ran it back up. Well, a $40 profit is better than a $400 loss. :))Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-28303625808843190952010-09-22T12:39:51.787-07:002010-09-22T12:39:51.787-07:00SPX 1136 - Hmm, I'm surprised, expected closer...SPX 1136 - Hmm, I'm surprised, expected closer to 1130... 1131 was low, better than expected.<br /><br />When does Moral Hazard start kicking in?Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-53755235715080396562010-09-22T12:37:53.241-07:002010-09-22T12:37:53.241-07:00TOF- Yep, JPM...I watch it all day. The way I look...TOF- Yep, JPM...I watch it all day. The way I look at things it needs to hold right around here or we might be in trouble.MarkWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10115276845896649502noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-12911925513991285072010-09-22T12:33:14.528-07:002010-09-22T12:33:14.528-07:00CADC - Earnings report this month (90 days followi...CADC - Earnings report this month (90 days following EOY: June 30th).<br /><br />This company is well positioned, this must be a shakeout attempt.<br /><br />Shoulda waited for RSI(2)< 2 before adding so I'm gonna just hang in there.<br /><br />Kinda like water skiing.Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-65562907688614971222010-09-22T12:28:26.487-07:002010-09-22T12:28:26.487-07:00i'm just gonna sit and watch the action, parti...i'm just gonna sit and watch the action, particularly UUP, FCX, AA, JPM, Copper Charts, Sovereign Spreads, and the Sensex.<br /><br />By the way, STT fell back below the $37.9 support level.teamonfuegonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-15614510381369641612010-09-22T12:25:49.591-07:002010-09-22T12:25:49.591-07:00ok it's official. i'm sitting on my hands...ok it's official. i'm sitting on my hands for another few days outside of the tiny trades i'm making. <br /><br />that Sensex index (india index) sure looks like a parabolic move up and those usually end really badly on the either side of things. Maybe REDF has run up only because people have been scrambling to buy anything India related? If that’s the case and REDF doesn’t clear $5 I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go back down. and i wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of things down in general because a piece of this recent run up was based on speculation overseas.teamonfuegonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-23907414732679504742010-09-22T12:09:59.719-07:002010-09-22T12:09:59.719-07:00I had a brief thought of placing my stop at $84.50...I had a brief thought of placing my stop at $84.50, just below the recent congestion area, but I guess they sensed my thoughts and immediately spiked down FCX briefly below $84.50 so as to run my *imaginary* stop! These black box trading algorithms are getting to be very good! :))Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-85045199689997260282010-09-22T12:08:03.328-07:002010-09-22T12:08:03.328-07:00Moving my stop on FCX to $84.30 so as to definitel...Moving my stop on FCX to $84.30 so as to definitely make some money on this intraday trade.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-75654590561553114122010-09-22T11:40:23.194-07:002010-09-22T11:40:23.194-07:00Placing a sell stop at $83.95, just below the leve...Placing a sell stop at $83.95, just below the level where it had stalled recently...Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-6402057975493344672010-09-22T11:37:26.887-07:002010-09-22T11:37:26.887-07:00I've been consistently losing money while shor...I've been consistently losing money while shorting FCX, and I am wondering whether I should be buying it instead. So I just bought 200 shares at $84.11. Looks like the indexes have put in a higher low on the intraday chart, so FCX should move up as well.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.com