tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post4985925650134845960..comments2023-10-28T01:56:57.243-07:00Comments on Trading Topics: 3/3/16 Raging Bull in RioMarkWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10115276845896649502noreply@blogger.comBlogger57125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-79284089434188696892016-03-06T18:05:03.839-08:002016-03-06T18:05:03.839-08:00If you stick your head in the sand and refuse to l...If you stick your head in the sand and refuse to look for fantastic economic data, you won't discover it. No wonder BB is so bullish?:<br />"South Korea February Auto exports declined 8.1% Y/Y while production fell 3.7% Y/Y and domestic sales rose 7.1% Y/Y 07 Mar 2016 - 00:49 - Forex - Source: BBG "Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-65592449584625396792016-03-06T17:57:21.777-08:002016-03-06T17:57:21.777-08:00Hong Kong Residential Sales Plunge 70% in February...Hong Kong Residential Sales Plunge 70% in February to 25 Year Lows <br /><br />So, I simply cannot imagine a better reason to believe global trade is expanding as reports similar to this surface. Stick your head in the sand and click your heels...Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-21854361908022744332016-03-06T17:47:30.395-08:002016-03-06T17:47:30.395-08:00Jesse sent out another PDF, last couple times he d...Jesse sent out another PDF, last couple times he did that market went sideways a week or two then took off to the downside....Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-64583473980983299122016-03-06T12:56:39.157-08:002016-03-06T12:56:39.157-08:00http://www.reuters.com/article/us-blackrock-gold-e...http://www.reuters.com/article/us-blackrock-gold-etf-idUSKCN0W61YG<br /><br />Not what you'd expect to see or how I recall gold bottomed/acted back in 2000. Makes me think there is still too much latent hope in gold to be a true bottom, unless something has fundamentally changed (like negative interest rates?). But remember all the central bank selling of gold in the late 1990's and how nobody thought it would ever go up - not the case now.BB Canadahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04765452269851135232noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-21881778821159883912016-03-06T09:39:04.284-08:002016-03-06T09:39:04.284-08:00Crap, the only container shipments remaining on th...Crap, the only container shipments remaining on the high seas have been confiscated? Looks like container ship stocks recovery is cancelled.... What are the chances this postpones the CIA's secret army battle plans?<br /><br />http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3476246/Spain-seizes-20-000-ISIS-fighter-uniforms-smuggled-Syria-Iraq-marked-second-hand-clothes-aid-packages.htmlChickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-9105766915119770212016-03-05T19:57:58.252-08:002016-03-05T19:57:58.252-08:00Anybody know which states Romney took?Anybody know which states Romney took?Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-12654439795041649092016-03-05T19:24:47.413-08:002016-03-05T19:24:47.413-08:00Valuation does matter and stocks are on the high s...Valuation does matter and stocks are on the high side. But investors often compare valuations using the risk free return rate of US Treasuries, so with this being so low, people are willing to pay over 20 p/e's for safe consumer staples with much higher yields for example. I don't see that changing until rates get competitive. <br /><br />I could see a market where the PG and KO's of the world do Ok, the cheap financials, industrials and materials do very well and overvalued stocks like AMZN lose, and the overall market goes up quite a bit.<br /><br />But until rates get back up to say the 3% range, their is not many alternatives for yield oriented investors (like many big pension funds).BB Canadahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04765452269851135232noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-36346932533311324412016-03-05T18:56:31.171-08:002016-03-05T18:56:31.171-08:002nd - if only the US market could de-couple from t...2nd - if only the US market could de-couple from the rest of the world...<br /><br />Valuation definitely matters in so much as future returns.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17281607071690922074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-35059248599198597602016-03-05T16:45:58.916-08:002016-03-05T16:45:58.916-08:00Then, when LZEMX rises above 15, I'll place a ...Then, when LZEMX rises above 15, I'll place a stop for the remaining shares at 14.21, so as not to "let a profit turn into a loss." If that stop will not be hit in a short order and LZEMX keeps going up making higher lows, then I'll wait for it to make a lower high and then break below a previous low before selling the rest.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-68376467882342567032016-03-05T16:39:21.567-08:002016-03-05T16:39:21.567-08:00OK, now I understand your strategy. Scaling in dur...OK, now I understand your strategy. Scaling in during extremely negative sentiment (as was the case with EM at the end of 2015) and waiting for above-average sentiment to start scaling out will, no doubt, be profitable over multiple cycles. But if we focus only on this cycle, then a more sure way to make profits is to start scaling out soon. Who knows, mayby the driving force in this cycle will be institutions and investor sentiment will matter less than usual?<br /><br />I put 1/2 of my 401k into LZEMX at 14.21 and added another 1/4 at 12.40. I'll probably take profits on the bunch I added as soon as LZEMX rises above 14.21...Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-86532561645893346202016-03-05T16:18:42.084-08:002016-03-05T16:18:42.084-08:00Valuation will matter when it matters. I assume yo...Valuation will matter when it matters. I assume you're referring to the SPX, which has approached and may again approach 25x+ before a significant decline begins. <br /><br />The global stock market ex-US? I think it's already in bear market territory, and at a long-term buy point. By the time the majority of investors figure that out, it may then become prudent to start selling.2nd_avehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11891113186978672464noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-3069824718694292672016-03-05T16:14:29.362-08:002016-03-05T16:14:29.362-08:00I have no plans to scale out anytime soon. Sentim...I have no plans to scale out anytime soon. Sentiment is far from euphoric. In fact, it's still quite negative. The total world stock market currently sits at a low-risk entry point, IMO.2nd_avehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11891113186978672464noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-48368952638037802632016-03-05T14:50:27.604-08:002016-03-05T14:50:27.604-08:00The major issue with the market right now is valua...The major issue with the market right now is valuation overall. The market trades at 18.8x trailing earnings (versus 16.5 average) and earnings were down 5.5% last year and 6% last quarter. Long term earnings growth is 6.7% so if you assume 6.7% the next 3 years and assign a 16.5x multiple then you get only a 7% return from this price...or 2.2% per year (4.5% including dividends). Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17281607071690922074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-49694320637117962262016-03-05T13:57:56.784-08:002016-03-05T13:57:56.784-08:00I'd way prefer buying energy over FANG still. ...I'd way prefer buying energy over FANG still. Still a lot of pessimism in energy and things my be starting to turn, and FANG stocks are still either very high market cap or very expensive, so hard to move up.<br /><br />AMZN in 2015 may be MSFT in 2000.BB Canadahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04765452269851135232noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-59274597011767151462016-03-05T13:31:26.901-08:002016-03-05T13:31:26.901-08:00What if we're not even close to the top? What ...What if we're not even close to the top? What if this was a 2 year pause and the top is 4 years from now at 3,000?<br /><br />>That's what I've been saying for a while and still think. There is no indications of, or reasons for a recession, rates are going up a bit but staying low, inflation is tame, the economy is not overheating.<br /><br />Without a recession, it is hard to see a major bear market, because many stocks are not expensive and some very cheap. <br /><br />From a stock cycle perspective, we still have yet to see the optimistic mid-cycle period, and usually that transitions into some sort of a toppongphase, which is no where in sight.BB Canadahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04765452269851135232noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-30523153464836807152016-03-05T12:04:10.836-08:002016-03-05T12:04:10.836-08:00FDP - Watch out, you have to pay extra for food th...FDP - Watch out, you have to pay extra for food that doesn't contain celluose (wood pulp) and fresh food.<br /><br />BTW, what will we eat if we switch from burning coal to burning wood for energy, or should we anticipate more wood pulp in our diet as wood pellets become more prominent?Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-37225188176983917572016-03-05T11:59:11.122-08:002016-03-05T11:59:11.122-08:00Has FANG run out of steam, or is the wind down (of...Has FANG run out of steam, or is the wind down (of the favorite short trade) a sign of adding to winners for the next leg up? Thinking out loud here, I realize it's an unpopular concept of course but hey....<br /><br />"one of the most prominent strategies last year was going long the FANG (Facebook FB, Google GOOG, Amazon AMZN, Netflix NFLX) and shorting the energy complex."Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-54897695082032575472016-03-05T11:51:28.364-08:002016-03-05T11:51:28.364-08:00SPH and ALDW dividends are tax exempt as well, thi...SPH and ALDW dividends are tax exempt as well, this doesn't make sense?Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-26013918234283816662016-03-05T11:48:43.964-08:002016-03-05T11:48:43.964-08:00CG - Hmm, according to my DD my CG dividend is tax...CG - Hmm, according to my DD my CG dividend is tax exempt? That's interesting.....Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-9489207504818340632016-03-05T11:43:10.091-08:002016-03-05T11:43:10.091-08:00If stocks are expensive, from where do those metri...If stocks are expensive, from where do those metrics originate? IOW, are those metrics skewed in some way?Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-47047334900514465622016-03-05T11:18:19.326-08:002016-03-05T11:18:19.326-08:00What if we're not even close to the top? What...What if we're not even close to the top? What if this was a 2 year pause and the top is 4 years from now at 3,000?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17281607071690922074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-26429905449845782232016-03-05T10:39:18.859-08:002016-03-05T10:39:18.859-08:002nd_ave, while we may wish for the market to reach...2nd_ave, while we may wish for the market to reach old highs, it may not do so. Wouldn't it make sense for you to start scaling out of your long positions now, instead of trying to sell all of them in one shot at "the top"?Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511765703071689959noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-86735137820009366562016-03-05T08:22:44.241-08:002016-03-05T08:22:44.241-08:00Maybe here, but I failed to get it to download, of...Maybe here, but I failed to get it to download, of course....<br /><br />https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=a2wChickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-17460242709660219382016-03-04T20:33:59.020-08:002016-03-04T20:33:59.020-08:00What have our foreign policies accomplished in the...What have our foreign policies accomplished in the Middle East?Chickenpookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474588806509500129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6969366797834293153.post-74605116103817961022016-03-04T18:51:59.601-08:002016-03-04T18:51:59.601-08:00Do we know of a site where you can track the two t...Do we know of a site where you can track the two to compare?MarkWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10115276845896649502noreply@blogger.com