Will close FBGRX in the 403(b) at the close.
(a) The largest position in the fund is AAPL, at 9.11%.
(b) Its top ten holdings (AAPL GOOG XOM MCD QCOM KO AMZN PM HAL MA) comprise 30% of the fund. Seven of the ten are either at, or close to, 52-wk highs.
(c) Three of its top ten holdings are in the Distribution Zone.
(d) I was already leaning 'less bullish' this morning.
(e) It's entirely possible we rally another +5%, then pull back =<5%, which would require reopening positions at higher prices (but lower sentiment readings). That's a risk I'm willing to take. A risk I'm not willing to take is that we pull back -%5 from here.
This action will put me back at 100% cash. I realize this places my trading strategy at odds with Landry's approach- but holding at these levels is out of my comfort zone. Capital preservation concerns are now front and center.
Nice day for CAAS today -- when will SORL finally follow the suit?
ReplyDeletePEIX earnings out. Down 35% or so from today's high. Earnings tough to decipher. They definitely lost money. Like I said earlier, they state margins contracted towards the very end of the quarter. They seem to think they may expand going forward. This is not what other ethanol companies are seeing.
ReplyDeletejeez there were reversals all over the place today on the 2012 momo stocks. LDK, FSLR, NM, IRE, BAC. only bad one i could find was MITK but it wasnt that bad.
ReplyDeleteSVM - Exited half my position on failure of silver to regain $36 and SVM to confirm an uptrend.
ReplyDeleteI have to draw the line somewhere, may as well be right here right now!
Couldn't sell the entire position in front of LTRO but will have my finger on the button as the sun rises.
Next 2-4 days going to be very interesting for natural gas based on the monthly chart.
ReplyDelete4th wave complete. Waiting for 5th wave bottom on positive divergence.
Key levels I'm watching: 2.60, 2.45, 2.35, and 2.20.
If it makes a new low, it should be minor and of short duration. Large positive divergence should be in place if natty approaches prior lows.
TED spread made a new low today for 2012, after a brief bounce during the last couple of weeks...
ReplyDeleteThe CDX.NA.HY spreads are staying at the 2012 lows => no new credit stress has appeared recently for the small volatile companies...
ReplyDeleteCYD - Looks like they had a wild day there...
ReplyDeleteJesse - I kind of like the idea of trading PEIX to the long side above $1.30 with a stop below $1.2. Seems pretty low risk to me.
ReplyDeleteSo I just had a very interesting conversation with a guy at one of the larger shareholders of WFR. My old boss in the hedge fund world knows that I have a decent chunk of change in the company and he was asking me about it and after talking he noticed that one of the larger shareholders of WFR is one of his clients and that he actually knows them pretty well.
ANyway, he's interested in WFR from what I've told him so he touched base with this guy to get his take and then he ended up putting me in touch with him (not going to share who he is b/c my old boss asked me not to). Anyway, this guy said that they have about a $6.5 cost basis in the company and that they think it could get to $20 to $30 over time now that they have basically done a mea culpa, admitting their mistakes and slashing costs.
I suggested that he and the other large shareholders try to get rid of the management team currently in place and put a new team in place because of how poorly they have run the business since 2009 when they took over (Went from positive $1.5 Billion net cash position to $0 (they have about $600 Million cash and debt now) and stock is down 70% versus flat for most other solar stocks). He said he agrees in large part but that there were also some issues they couldn't have foreseen happen (particularly with the earthquake in Japan and the impact it had on their semi biz). He also said they don't take activist roles in the companies they invest in.
Anyway, it was an interesting conversation nonetheless. It kind of made me think about what Grantham was saying: indiv investors have major advantages over these large shops because we don't have to worry about job security if our positions are down in the short term. I'd have to imagine that whomever got them in at a $6.5 avg is probably feeling heat from his boss.
I noticed the director of the company(what the hell is that) Bought a shitload at that same price. 6.5 ish.
DeleteIs there anything free of debt aside from AAPL, that has rallied?
ReplyDeleteSeems like your share price can't rise unless you've got some unsustainable threshold level of debt on your balance sheet.
DECK - I just noticed the big H&S on the one year chart.
ReplyDeleteThe geometric target of the pattern is $30
WFR - They got new management in 2009?
ReplyDeleteThat's a good explanation.
FSLR reports earnings tomorrow. Usually moved the whole solar complex.
ReplyDeleteRB - I'm assuming they're going to shit the bed. I wouldn't be surprised to see it -10%.
DeleteYes, but guidance will be the key. They are 25% below book and actually have earnings. With a 6.0 PE. And little debt. I could see a shake out and move higher ala ANR this wednesday. will be interesting.
DeleteI just took a walk outside to enjoy the trees blossoming in my apartment complex and it had occurred to me that I should do a lateral move from CAAS (which is trading at a P/E of 8.5) into SORL (which is trading at a P/E of 3.3). I have 2000 shares of CAAS since the bad old days at the cost basis of $8.8, and I just placed sell limit orders for 1000 shares at $6.5 and $7, so as to catch a morning spike up tomorrow, should it have one.
ReplyDeleteDavid - I think that's a good move, assuming of course that SORL is legit!
Delete"Selective Default" - Sounds like the little guy gets hosed in a backroom big-wig deal.
ReplyDeleteCopper - At least someone's been buying copper...
ReplyDeleteRB - The problem with FSLR is I believe they get something like 70% of their revs from Germany which just had significant cuts in the subsidies they give. The Chinese solars are better leveraged to the China market which is going to be in heavy demand for years to come thanks to govt subsidies. One of the many reasons I chose WFR is their semi biz was hurt bad by the European credit crisis and the Japanese earthquake (both short term issues) but they only have like 20% of their revs coming from Europe in the solar biz. They are focused more on the Americas, which don't have as many subsidies. My timing was terrible and my choice within the sector (so far) was terrible, but I still think WFR is much better suited to rebound than FSLR because FSLR is so dependent upon Europe which was so heavily subsidized in the past.
ReplyDeleteSo I guess my point is they just have zero visibility and I really see no way of them guiding well.
Deleteoh and last thing: FSLR has basically the same balance sheet as WFR...they have around $700 Million in cash/CE's and $500 Million in debt.
Deletethanks for the info!
Deletelast last thing: the solars in general show more debt on their books than they actually have. a lot of their debts are related to big solar projects that have deferred revenues associated with them. when revs are recognized the debts are wiped away. you have to go through and back them out to get a true sense of how much debt they have.
DeleteI personally like this market a lot, but I don't worry about a 5% pullback and I'm never fully out the market, so my approach is different than most here. What I'm liking is the rotation that is going on with different stocks going up and down instead of the everything up/down we had last year.
ReplyDeleteI've been taking advantage of this to upgrade my portfolio the last couple of weeks. I've sold off a couple of bank preferred that I got back in 2008 / 2009 that had almost doubled and a few of my weaker energy holding that had rallied with oil and my largest copper holding (I don't trust metals here). I've redeployed into AHT (Hotel Reit) and bought a good sized position in a Canadian Hotel Reit - it took a while, it doesn't trade most days, but it's at less than half of book and less than 5 times AFFO (essentially earnings for REITS), so now I can just sit back and not worry about it and wait for it to go up. I also bought a Great Lakes shipper on great earnings to go with NM and it has since jumped almost 20%. NM up nicely today as well after its pullback and maintaining a nice uptrend.
To me, stocks seem to be acting mostly rationally now which is a nice change from last year.
The index's may be trading at new highs, but the MACD's don't seem to be in confirmation of the phenomenon.
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking we're gonna need a fresh injection here real soon.
REK or SRS - Which is preferable?
ReplyDeleteboth are thinly traded. Are you allowed to short in your account? If so You could pick the components of these etfs and get the same effect.
DeleteOne of my favorite companies is buying nat gas right now.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-27/linn-to-buy-natural-gas-assets-from-bp-for-1-2b.html
The elements of these inverse ETF's are no doubt derivatives, but I understand the point your getting at.
ReplyDeleteI'll tell you what, that is if I thought I really knew what was going on and where we were headed, I would be discussing it with people I know and care about.
ReplyDelete"Today the Greek Government Bond trading with an attached Credit Default Swap, is now trading at 96 cents on the dollar. The Greek bond without the CDS is trading south of 20 cents. Thus, the trading indicates that many believe that the PSI deal with the Greek Government will fail and that the CDS will trigger an "event" . It looks like Germany will have her wish that Greece will leave the Euro zone voluntarily."
MITK shorts added another 1.1M shares through 2/15. WOW! This might squeeze this baby higher. On the other hand, if this is big money, they could just step on it.
ReplyDeletewell based on revs we all know that sucker is expensive. the issue is will mobile bill pay ever take off. my gut, which is what i've been investing with lately, tells me it doesn't. people aren't exactly excited about paying other people. now when it comes to receiving cash via checks? that's another story.
Deleteall told all of their apps in my mind will probably ultimately be nice marginal products, never really amounting to enough to support a $1 Billion valuation, much less a $500 Million valuation. but having said that, i'm sure they will get bought out based on the wow factor. those big tech companies with lots of money never fail to overbuy for something.
If I'm lucky...really lucky, one day my leg will have a twitter account.
ReplyDeleteSMP - Son of a gun, has this thing been on a tear.
ReplyDeleteI found an even better choice of a company into which I should make a lateral from CAAS, and that's LPH. It has a P/E of 2, and once the acquisition of another storage facility goes through (a few more weeks), their earnings will jump by 30%.
ReplyDeleteGiven such awesome deals out there, the forward P/E of 15 for MGIC seems very expensive. So I just placed a sell limit at $0.5 for 25 contracts of April $7.50 calls, so as to close my 2500 shares at $8. My cost basis is $6.40, so I'll have a nice round gain of 4K at the sales price of $8.
Once I dispose of my MGIC shares, I'll rotate the capital into ONP/LPH, which have almost identical charts over the past year. And I thought investors are supposed to care what their company is selling: paper product or petroleum products. :)
http://216.105.249.164/Mobile/news?id=437769866
ReplyDeletedb puts hold on fslr with $30 pt (seems like sell to me). they say low nat gas amongst other things has impact on them. interesting. so if u invest in solar u need nat gas to rise. could be waiting for a while for that
Low nat gas hurts all competing energy products except oil as cars have no choice.
ReplyDeleteBut electricity producers, industrial users, etc. can make the switch and lock in low prices for a long time - I think coal, solar, wind, uranium all have a tough time until nat gas prices start moving back up.
BB - Yep I agree. Although you have to consider just how much is priced in.
DeleteLook at LDK man. What a nice looking chart.
That is the key, plus nat gas will go up at some time. With the big companies looking to shut in wells and the lack of focus on developing nat gas from the energy companies, supply will eventually drop to a sustainable level and prices will rise.
DeleteI'm looking at some nat gas stocks, but wonder if I might not get better prices later this as nat gas storage is over the top full and if we don't get a hot summer to drive electricity demand, it could take a long time to use this up.
I swear someone is accumulating NLS. Every time it dips I see a big bid (at least 25k) come out.
ReplyDeleteDANG looks like a good buy here
ReplyDeleteSold my HMC (Honda) this morning. Bought it in the aftermath of the Japan tsunami and made over 20% in about 6 months, so pretty reasonable return for a safe large cap.
ReplyDeleteI remember that BB. Nice trade.
DeleteTOF- My entry into WFR is largely based on 2 things. A healthy bounce in Natty and the chart.
ReplyDeleteInteresting. Nice entry yesterday. You must have sensed my max frustration.
DeleteIf WFR can stay above $4.24 then I got $500 and 3 free months of trades from my brokerage firm in exchange for a few days of mental anguish. Not a bad tradeoff.
4.24. That's a good way to look at it! I wonder how much I'd trade if I could do it for free???
DeleteAAPL hits 530.
ReplyDeleteI thought it was based on the desire to make money.
ReplyDeleteAKS very interesting chart.
ReplyDeleteSilver - A close in the $36.30's would be bad news for bears, IMO.
ReplyDeleteCSTR- That's beautiful. Too bad we had it right but couldn't trade it right.
ReplyDeleteGot to run...well, walk swiftly. Later.
ReplyDeleteGoing back 20 years, AAPL has closed above its MONTHLY bolinger band 3x.
ReplyDelete10/07- 24 points above. Next month 190 to 150 and back.
12/07- 3 points above. Next month 203 to 126.
2/12- 62 points above. Next month??
Ritholtz travels back in time.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/top-albums-of-the-1970s/
BB, you mentioned you sold out of NWLI awhile ago, since you have followed this in the past any thoughts here?
ReplyDeleteGood call on AKS, Jesse. Not doing much of anything, LTRO boys.
RENN DANG YOKU and others moving. Could be a signal that RUT is finally going to break out of its base in the short term.
ReplyDeleteLINE:
ReplyDeleteô€‚„ 2012 acquisitions pick up where 2011 left off… Making good on its 4Q prediction that 2012 would likely be ‘a very active year on the acquisition
front’ LINE announced today the signing of a definitive purchase agreement to acquire Hugoton Basin properties in KS from BP America for $1.2B.
The deal is expected to close on or before March 30th and will be financed with borrowings under the company’s revolving credit facility. While
acquisitions are a core tenant of LINE’s growth strategy (nearly $8B in deals since 2006), this marks the largest single purchase since 2007’s
Midcontinent pickup from Dominion.
ô€‚„ Assets appear well suited to LINE’s ‘acquire & exploit’ model The acquired properties have 730 Bcfe of proved reserves (81% PDP), 110 MMcfe
of daily production (63% natgas / 37% NGL), and more than 800 future drilling locations. Moreover, with optimization and cost savings potential and an
estimated 7% annual decline rate, the assets appear well suited to LINE’s distribution model. Mgmt estimates the properties will generate ~$160mm in
2012 adjusted EBITDA and believes the deal is immediately accretive to per-unit cash flow.
􀂄 Hedges support cash flow; $1.5B private senior note offering planned Along with the purchase, mgmt hedged 100% and 68% of estimated natgas
& NGL production, respectively, through 2016 using a combination of puts & swaps. LINE also announced plans to privately place $1.5B of senior
unsecured notes due 2019. We will formally update estimates once financing & hedging disclosures are made.
􀂄 Valuation: Reiterate Buy Rating We maintain our $44 DDM-derived price target and Buy rating on the units.
BB do you know anything about CNI? Chart is setting up for BO.
ReplyDeleteRobear,
ReplyDeleteCNI is a really solid railroad. Great management; best in class execution, balance sheet, and risk-adjusted ROIC.
The issue with it is the stock is generally quite expensive because of this. I've got some shares I bought in the mid-40's in the spring of 2009 and I plan on just holding these pretty much forever unless the price gets way out whack too high.
BB thanks really value the input.
Deletesolar:
ReplyDeleteJanuary demand from China slightly lower
ô€‚„ China poly demand down -23% m/m, Chinese New Year had some impact Our monthly checks found China’s demand for externally made poly in
the month of Jan-12 decreased m/m to 4,700MT. We believe this was from digestion of high poly purchases in month of Dec-11 (near historical peak of
6,000MT+ as customers likely restocked poly) and the loss of 1.5 weeks due to Chinese New Year (month with this holiday averages m/m decline of -
19% the past 10 years).
􀂄 China poly prices in month of Jan-12 were flat m/m despite lower demand Our checks find average poly prices in China were $30/kg despite
lower demand and may mark a near term bottom. Our analysis shows the top 6 solar companies in China purchased 2,000MT of poly (down -12%
m/m), led by Trina (highest month ever at 800kg) and Yingli (600kg, in line with its 2011 monthly average). Smaller solar companies only purchased
2,700MT (-29% m/m), suggesting consolidation.
ô€‚„ Germany shipped more poly to China in Jan-12; Korea & US shipped less Our analysis found China’s purchases of poly from Germany rose 26%
m/m in Jan-12 as prices declined by -17% m/m to $35/kg. We found Korea’s shipments of poly to China declined -34% m/m (prices were $28/kg) and
US shipments declined -33% m/m (prices were $26/kg). Our checks finally found no poly from MEMC’s Italy factory went to China in Jan-12 (averaged
190MT/month in 2011), inline with MEMC’s guidance as we estimate that factory’s production cost is over $36/kg.
􀂄 Solar stocks reflect stable poly prices near term; looking for new demand We expect 2012 poly prices trend slightly higher to the $35/kg range
and look for signs of better demand in growth areas such as the Middle East & Southeast Asia.
T3,
ReplyDeleteI still have NWLI and it is still my largest position (I sold out of KCLI as it's balance sheet is weaker and the stock is not as cheap).
NWLI has pulled back a lot the last couple of weeks, so I'm guessing a fund is getting out and pushing the price down. I think it was Tweedy Browne who had a management change and fund redemptions and were a large holder.
From a fundamental / business perspective, the company is still running very well, they continue to be very profitable, their book value continues to grow and their discount in the market place increases. I've since done more digging into their balance sheet and they use the most conservative approach and their assets are actually understated relative to the industry,
All the lifeco's are at a discount to their traditional value and NWLI is pretty much the cheapest, I think because they have a very small dividend and their majority shareholder doesn't seem to worry about the price. He has a "run a good business and the stock price will follow attitude" which I'm confident will turn out to be the case.
BB, thanks for your thoughts and clarification on NWLI/KCLI.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI think this has been what's mostly weighing on WFR
ReplyDeleteFrom S+P this morning:
SECTORS: ADVANCED ENERGY A NICHE PLAY AMID SOLAR UNCERTAINTY
We believe the upcoming week will be a critical one for the U.S. solar industry. The Commerce Department is currently holding a full investigation on whether Chinese manufacturers have been illegally "dumping" products into the U.S. at below-market prices (decision has already been delayed twice), and a preliminary ruling is expected by March 5. It will also assess, in a ruling expected this spring, whether China's solar panels have been unfairly subsidized.
uniting well over 100 U.S. based companies. The belief from this group is that thousands of jobs in clean energy will be lost as prices are likely to inflate in the region and thus stunt installation growth.
We believe the most likely outcome will be one where tariffs will be imposed on Chinese solar manufacturers. The larger question is, how big will they be? It appears to us that the writing is already on the wall in an election year when the administration has continuously looked to promote alternative energy and the creation of U.S. jobs in this arena. In addition, President Obama, during his State of the Union address, announced plans to create a Trade Enforcement Unit that will be charged with investigating unfair trading practices in countries like China (2013 budget proposal includes funding for a new Trade Enforcement Center). Finally, we thought the possible visit by Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping in mid-February could have helped defuse a potential trade war in the alternative energy space; however, no significant strides appear to have been made.
A tax on Chinese solar module imports would obviously be most damaging to China-based solar manufacturers, and this in turn could completely eliminate their shipments to the U.S. depending on the percentage taxed. Outside of the obvious China players, we believe U.S.-based MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR 4 **) could be at significant risk, since we think WFR's SunEdison business and 3 gigawatt pipeline relies heavily on partnerships with China-based manufacturers like JA Solar (JASO 2 ***), among others.
This gave me a good laugh, "Reverse Corleone" even though it's a modern day tragedy.
ReplyDeleteit appears to us that the German finance officials have actually tried to make the austerity measures so severe… so awful… so horrid that no right-minded Greek political official would accept them and would move to pull Greece from the Union… except that the Greek fiscal officials accede to each new
demand in what we referred to here yesterday as a “Reverse Corleone:” They’ve accepted an offer that should have been refused. They’ve done so because in a perverse manner they need the money that the IMF and the Troika have upon the table just as a drug addict needs that next fix.
SVM - Sonna beach, can't believe this thing's gonna take off after I get shook outta half my position yesterday....
ReplyDeleteSVM chart looks heavy. If it cannot break above 8.00. I think you will be happy with your sell.
DeleteIt's funny that S&P considers WFR at risk even though on the conf call mgmt stated that over 70% of revs in the solar sector come from the Americas. But let's do the math. Let's say half of the remaining comes from China. Also lets say a tariff reduces demand in China by 30%.
ReplyDeleteSolar makes up about 65% of total revenues.
So 100 x .65 x .15 (half of 30%) x .7 (30% drop in demand) = 6.8% of total revenues might be at risk in that scenario. I'd say this is a very conservative estimate too.
Again, my take is 95% drop in stock price kind of prices that in. Even if you compare it to $12 price from last year...a 66% drop in price kind of prices that in.
S&P yet again ahead of the curve in issuing cautious comments on WFR after a 95% drop. Bravo!
Seeing a huge rally in silver today and a muted response (so far) by AUMN, just bought 10 more April $7.50 calls on it, this time at $2.10 (I first bought 10 such calls a couple of weeks ago at $2.00 when AUMN dropped to $9.00).
ReplyDeleteGiven the huge anticipated production growth of AUMN, I am expecting that it won't be treated as unfairly as it did last year, when silver was surging and AUMN was going down. In fact, I expect the whole of GDXJ to follow silver this year (even though GDXJ is already lagging silver...)
Santorum Proposes Replacing Church, State with New Entity Called ‘Sturch’
ReplyDeleteWould Offer Salvation, Motor Vehicle Renewals on Sunday
LANSING (The Borowitz Report) – Telling a crowd of supporters that the separation of church and state “makes me want to throw up,” GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum today proposed replacing church and state with a new entity he called “sturch.”
“Merging church and state into sturch will benefit all Americans,” he said. “Except maybe Jews.”
Mr. Santorum said that the combined entity would offer greater convenience to the American people than the separation of church and state currently does, since Americans would be able to get salvation and motor vehicle renewals at the same place every Sunday.
Turning to another campaign theme, Mr. Santorum told the crowd, “I support the rights of the unborn child until it is born and wants an education."
He contrasted himself with President Obama on the education issue, stating, “Barack Obama speaks in complete sentences. What a snob.”
In other campaign news, singer Kid Rock endorsed Mitt Romney, which means that his music is no longer the worst thing about Kid Rock.
An upbeat Mr. Romney visited the Daytona 500, where he told a reporter, “I love this stuff. I’ve always been a big NASDAQ fan.”
Just sold 1000 shares of CAAS at $6.50...
ReplyDeleteUNG is about to break its December/January lows at $20 (post-split). Mark -- do you expect a quick bounce after it breaks support?
ReplyDeleteSVM - Yeah, I can see it needs to clear $8, could be an entire Canadian pension fund is still in the process of quietly dumping their position, for legal reasons. And silver failing $36 yesterday was my que, hopefully hyperventilating shorts can knock it back down at least to around low $7's or further, the lower the better.
ReplyDeleteI've got a lot of work to do on this one.
I just looked at the April NG futures and they are still above their January lows. So I guess we'll panic tomorrow. :)
ReplyDeleteCC - That's all cute stuff but nothing on Ron Paul?
ReplyDeleteNo, nothing on RP yet, just a story about a Doberman mistaken for a Tea Party candidate.
DeleteWell, at least I've got the J Leno skit where a black van pulls up to Paul in a dark parking garage and two guys jump out dragging him into the van. Immediately there are two gunshots from within the van, complete with bright flashes from the van windows, then a second or two later, Dr. Paul gingerly steps out of the van and starts dusting off his sport jacket.
ReplyDeleteOK, just sold my remaining 1000 shares of CAAS at $6.32 and will now focus on moving that money into LPH...
ReplyDeleteOK, just bought 8000 shares of LPH at $1.53.
ReplyDeleteLPH - That looks like a pretty good entry, tempting....
ReplyDeleteThe ever-exciting last day of an up month tomorrow. Nasdaq 3,000? 1st time in 12 years? It would be in every paper and on every show around the world.
ReplyDeletePrecisely coinciding w/ AAPL closing the month being the most overbought ever on a monthly basis.
March is going to be really interesting.
Throw in AAPL crossing the $500 billion threshold. Should be plenty to talk about.
DeleteJesse- "March is going to be really interesting." Man, I hope so. This month has been BORING!!!
ReplyDeleteI read a couple of research reports about LPH:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/362291-longwei-petroleum-a-dormant-dragon-sleeping-in-the-kingdom-of-oil?source=yahoo
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/RedChip-Research-Issues-pz-4045175807.html?x=0
I liked what I saw there... I suppose the company had a low P/E because it had no growth strategy -- it was just filling its oil storage tanks at cheap prices and then selling the oil at better prices, generating a very fixed margin of 20%. But recently, the decided to plow all their cash into an acquisition of another storage facility, expanding their capacity by 30%. The stock is still low because of the uncertainty about how they will finance this acquisition (they don't have enough cash on hand to do it now). The first link above suggests that they borrow money, which is a great idea since they will be able to repay it quickly with their steady cashflow and will be just left with a larger earnings stream. The market WILL revalue this company to a P/E higher than 2.
There's been a lot of discussion around how this month's jobs report is going to be bad because the Gallup mid month poll was bad and it tends to be correlated with the jobs reports. But the thing that I find strange is that the jobless claims numbers have been excellent and the are steady despite potential seasonal issues. I think a lot of investors are concerned around the Gallup poll issue and should the jobs report come in at least on par with expectations or better, I think we get to 1,400 quickly.
ReplyDeleteThere's that 22k share bid on NLS again. Very strange indeed.
ReplyDeleteThese 2x's ETF's can be frustrating. GLL is suppose to be short 2x's gold. Today it is trading 3x's gold price. If someone is trying to hedge out their port on gold it would be problematic.
ReplyDeleteYikes
Nice bounce off the 50 DMA for STP. FSLR after the close today. My guess is they disappoint.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Dragged down by TC no doubt, negative reaction to TC earnings.
ReplyDeleteI have this feeling that natty will bottom and the market will top on the very same day.
ReplyDeleteFSLR halted ahead of earnings. Ut-Oh.
ReplyDelete2012 view of 4.13/share.
ReplyDeletethat appears to be in line no?
DeleteTaking cash flow down 10-20% from previous guidance.
ReplyDeleteTaking revenue down. eps stable.
TAN down AH. Could pull an ANR.
I must be missing something. FSLR to do over $4 in eps- trading at $31? Hmmm..
Deletedudes the solars are bottoming out. FSLR announced a 30 to 40% production cut to match supply and demand. this is happening almost across the board. this can only be viewed as a good thing in terms of profits.
ReplyDeleteSolars, coal, natty all slashing production like crazy. All part of the bottoming process.
ReplyDeleteNext hurdle will be what action the U.S. takes against China next week.
Any ideas what was up with silver today? Do we care?
ReplyDeleteYes, we do care! We have a BOAT LOAD of AUMN, which will start selling all of that silver soon. :)
DeleteSilver is up today for the very simple reason that all governments are still printing money...
I know YOU care honey ;)
DeleteJesse - yeah it will be interesting to see what action Congress takes on the tariffs on China exports. This impacts FSLR a lot more than WFR but it will be interesting to see what happens.
ReplyDeleteThe ethanol industry came off the subsidies in 2011 and yet demand was still really strong. I suspect when the solar industries loses most of its subsidies demand will fall initially and then it will rebound just like it did with ethanol and just like what happened with the housing sector a couple of years ago.
I wonder what the price of nat gas does after these industries lose their subsidies. i'd have to imagine it has a positive impact on the price of nat gas going forward over time as it makes those alt energy sources more expensive and then it's really only nat gas and coal that are the true cheap sources of energy
Tomorrow is a BIG, BIG, BIG day for the market.
ReplyDeleteQQQ closed exactly at its upper bolinger band.
Since 2000 (as far as my chart goes), QQQ has closed above its MONTHLY bb 1 time (10/07).
The Q's dropped 15% w/in 4 weeks and 25% w/in 12.
I studied standard deviation to death in b-school and am a huge believer in it. Here comes March....
Wow...Thank GOD they didn't mention WFR. Holly cow.
ReplyDeletewho didn't mention it?
DeleteISDA Determinations Committee Accepts Question Related to a Potential Hellenic Republic Credit Event
ReplyDeleteLONDON, February 28, 2012 - The International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc. (ISDA), as secretary to the Determinations Committees (the DCs), today announced that a question relating to a potential credit event with respect to the Hellenic Republic has been submitted to, and subsequently accepted for consideration by, the EMEA Determinations Committee.
In accordance with the Determinations Committee Rules, a meeting will be held at 11AM GMT on Thursday, March 1 to determine whether a credit event has occurred.
Further information regarding the question is available at www.isda.org/credit.
For Media Enquiries, Please Contact: Lauren Dobbs, ISDA New York, +1 212 901 6019, ldobbs@isda.org
Claire Freer, ISDA London, +44 203 088 3578, cfreer@isda.org
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Something tells me that RUT and EEM could have HUGE days tomorrow. They have long bases and have not participated at all this month. As long as they are in bases, the market is safe from the long side.
ReplyDeleteIf RUT flies, small cap junk should be busting through the roof. Add Naz 3,000, AAPL 550, DOW 13,150 and you have utter euphoria at the end of the month after 10 weeks w/out supportive pullbacks.
DeleteCoal is slashing production? So when do my lights go out? ...Last one out please turn off the lights?
ReplyDeleteRen: Boy, Stimpy... we sure had fun today, didn't we? So long, kids! Come on, Stimpy, say goodbye.
Stimpy: Duh, where are we going?
Ren: [to Stimpy] The show's over.
[to Audience]
Ren: See you next time!
Stimpy: Next time? When's that?
Ren: Pretty soon. Don't worry.
Stimpy: Pretty soon?
[getting choked up]
Stimpy: How long is that?
Ren: In a little while, man!
Stimpy: [crying] A little while? What'll we do 'til then?
Oh I see it now Mark...Fast Money guys were talking trash about FSLR. Good stuff. Let's get that sentiment really negative and not break recent lows, then people will be covering and buying back at higher prices.
ReplyDeleteI see they were saying something about FSLR having faulty products. So wouldn't that help competitors?
Yeah, I'm going to talk with my buddy who makes the micro-inverters for the panels. He spends half his time in China.
DeleteDavid, I'm getting the impression you and I are the only ones here willing to contemplate the implications concerning the debt, and we have accountants and business majors amongst us right here daily, which is extremely hard to discount. Even RB is PM bearish without hesitation and now oddly, equities bullish. These guys wouldn't consider silver/gold if their life depended on it, they're adamantly against being long PM's.
ReplyDeleteAre we wrong, or if we're right, what happens when the public begins to comprehend the effects if we're right, will it be too late?
CP - I already have a plan for that: I'll just use the millions of dollars worth of paper money I have saved up due to rampant inflation to keep the fire going in my house during the winter. Actually screw that I live in San Diego. I'll pick up smoking doobies with my paper money.
DeleteCP- I take the issue of our debit VERY seriously. That's one of the reasons I'm less bullish than I should be given the recent data. But you know me, the whole PM thing is hard to get my head around. I have the same issue entering rooms with small doors.
DeleteMan, if XCO breaks 7.70ish, next stop could be 3.70ish.
ReplyDeleteCP, here's my take on the PM's:
ReplyDeleteThe thing you have to remember is everything always comes down to supply and demand.
You are counting on the fact that people will be afraid enough of the debt that they'll want to buy PM's. Otherwise, the silver market specifically will likely be oversupplied by 50 million ounces in 2012.
If things in the market calm down (like they are) and people start feeling like it is safe to own stocks which produce dividends instead of PM's which protect wealth, they will redirect funds into stock instead. If they start feeling very comfortable, they may start selling their PM ETF's (this will be much easier than in the past when you had to take them to the bank). You will then have this huge supply coming onto the market and, if the demand is not there, prices will certainly drop.
If the economy improves and the deficit goes down or the government actually does something intelligent about the deficit (i'm not joking, it could happen), again, people will start selling PM's.
I'm not one of those people who is against Gold and owned a lot of gold stocks up until a couple of years ago. We were coming out of a supply deficit and demand was increasing, so it made sense that prices should go up.
At this point though, supply has grown, demand seems to be stabilizing and stocks are performing well offering a compelling alternative. Unless you think the whole system will fall apart (and that's a really poor bet), I have to believe you are much closer to the top than the bottom and trying to top-tick things is not the way to make money.
David makes the point that the increase in the price in gold is because of the deficit, but I would contend that the 2 are only loosely correlated and the real price of gold is more tied directly to supply and demand.
The price of gold was held fixed until the 1970's (I think), so supply was reduced as it was not economical to mine. When price controls came off, you had a huge price spike, which was followed by a huge supply response which drove Gold into it's almost 20 year bear market (during which there were many government deficits). in the early 2000's, China opened its economy, creating new demand for all metals including PM's, but the industry had so little excess capacity due to 20 years of tough conditions, prices had to rise. The supply response this time was slower as people did not believe in the price going up, so it took longer to grow production, but now, after 10 years, production has grown and we are perhaps in a balanced market. The thing is, for commodities to go up, you need an unbalanced market with demand over supply, and I don't think that will happen and I think more likely the opposite.
You an still make money in PM's, but I think you will need to do it on the equity side, not holding the metals themselves. You could buy AUMN for it's huge resource base and the upcoming cash flows. I would buy Barrick Gold (ABX) now if they would start up their hedging program again. Barrick is one of the most profitable gold miners, but they got burned on their hedges during the gold boom, so I don't think they are being intelligent about them now.
But the thing is, it will be a lot harder to pick winners if PM prices are flat or down. It will be like trying to pick tech winners in 2000 - there were some of them, but there were a lot of easier places to make money.
Kudos to BB and Mark, I found TOF's reaction to be over the top hostile.
ReplyDeleteCP -- he was just fooling around...
DeleteBB - Yeah, I definitely feel the magnitude of what seems like outright hate concerning PM's, but I'll say again, my interest in silver is not b/c I have any anticipation of an Armageddon type of outcome, in that case I'd choose gold probably, just I think the cost of living doesn't have much chance of receding, and industrial metals demand should remain robust. I really don't have the visibility I should, concerning how quickly supply is coming into production, it seems to me this isn't such an easy task due to the huge investment required.
ReplyDeleteMcEwen and Sprott seem to think this way as well concerning future demand, but for all I really know, they could be selling their book.
Don't mistake me for a hyperventilating Austerian, I'm all about what's fair and just, which is why the thought of bailing out bankers at the expense of those who responsibly make monthly mortgage payments and struggle to hold down real employment chaps my hide.
Gasfrac GSFVF had good news again this morning in the Quicksilver Resources (KWK) concall stating improved productivity. Then a long term contact with Blackbrush in Texas after the close. This could be the catalyst to get things going here. They have the waterless fracing that doesn't mess with the environment and gives higher yields.
ReplyDeleteThe stock has jumped 12% in the last 2 days, but there really is not reason it couldn't easily double or quadruple from here. It is cheap on a valuation basis and, as they prove out their technology, it will get a growth multiple.
I like the idea of waterless fracing, the concept makes really good sense to me.
ReplyDeleteI'm not an oil specialist guy though, but I do recognize how special interest groups who have huge investment in conventional technologies can be quite hostile towards anyone attempting to think outside the box. You can trust them to mislead you.
Doobies are not hostile brother. we went over this before about Gold. I don't like gold because it is just a rock with no value. I do watch PMs through SWC. Still cannot believe I did not pick up a large position in that sucker at $8.00. I feel more comfy in that stock because of its location in the FREE world and the industrial uses of those particular metals.. I don't trust miners in hostile land. I guess I am a patriot. That being said SWC is probably extremely correlated with silver price so I cannot claim any advantage in price action. Plus i do not own it at this time, But am watching for a 15 break on some volume. When does Ben speak next?
ReplyDeleteCP,
ReplyDeleteBMO, who is Canada's top rated research brokerage, and probably the best of the large ones on commodities produces a weekly Silver Report tracking the Silver Fundamentals by mines, scrapage, ETF's etc.
They are calling for $32 Silver this year, $40 next, $32 the year after and then $21 long term.
If you want I can email it to you.