Doobies are not hostile brother. we went over this before about Gold. I don't like gold because it is just a rock with no value. I do watch PMs through SWC. Still cannot believe I did not pick up a large position in that sucker at $8.00. I feel more comfy in that stock because of its location in the FREE world and the industrial uses of those particular metals.. I don't trust miners in hostile land. I guess I am a patriot. That being said SWC is probably extremely correlated with silver price so I cannot claim any advantage in price action. Plus i do not own it at this time, But am watching for a 15 break on some volume. When does Ben speak next?
CP -- the reluctance of smart people (even Buffett!) to get into the PM market now shows just how much our actions are driven by our emotions (reluctance to admit that our prior logic was wrong, preference to be hurt by something we know rather than by something we haven't tried before, etc.). I watched myself trading for 6 years now and I do see a huge impact of my emotions on my trading/investing. So I am not surprised to see that.
cp sorry bro i really had no idea i came across as hostile. i totally get the gold concept but u know my take on it i just cant value the damn thing so i stick to crap i hhave no idea about like wfr and womens workout eeqpmt (nls). ha.
seriously tho i do agree with uncle warren that housing might be a better investment than stocks but i think its because of the inflation factor. my wife and i were talking about this yesterday actually. look at the value of goods over past 30 yrs. to be able to fixed debt in at 4% or under for 30 yrs is pretty freaking good.
again sorry for coming across as hostile. thats the downside to trying to type a joke. without facial expressions and hand gestures it can come out the wrong way
"I don't like gold because it is just a rock with no value."
RB -- you can't eat a paper dollar either. :)
Since you can easily exchange gold/silver for dollars and buy things, we should treat gold/silver LIKE A CURRENCY, which MANY smart people have suggested previously (but most people still don't want to hear it). Gold/silver had a currency status for thousands of years, and thus the chance of them changing that status in the next couple of years is pretty slim.
Thus, the supply/demand we should be watching here is the supply of paper money vs. the amount of goods and services that can be bought with them. The increase in the former relative to the latter implies inflation, and gold will rise to track it, as it did for hundreds of years (I don't care whether it did so rightfully or not, but applying cool logic to it I just see that the chance of that changing in the next few years is pretty much 0).
The ONLY threat to a long-term investment in gold/silver is some smart change in the US tax code (an issue that John Mauldin has been discussing in his weekly letters recently) that will significantly reduce the deficit going forward. If that happens, then I'll sell all my AUMN immediately.
i really think the expiration of thes subsidies in solar after the exp of ethanol subsidies is going to have a postive impact on nat gas down the road. its the only cheap option now
Notice, folks -- I would totally agree with Buffet about preferring farm land and Exxon over gold over the interval of 100 years. However, over the interval of the next 3 years (which is my horizon until AUMN constructs a new 2000 tpd mill and becomes fairly valued as a result), I think AUMN will EASILY beat all Exxons and farmers. :)
BMO, who is Canada's top rated research brokerage, and probably the best of the large ones on commodities produces a weekly Silver Report tracking the Silver Fundamentals by mines, scrapage, ETF's etc.
They are calling for $32 Silver this year, $40 next, $32 the year after and then $21 long term.
You still need to watch the supply/demand of the individual commodity, regardless of dollar printing. If we didn't have enough food, those dollars would chase farmland before PM's. If there is 100 million more ounces of Silver a year than people want, the price will go down regardless of how many dollars are out there. As an extreme example, if an asteroid of gold hits the earth and gold becomes more common than copper, the price will come down to $4 / pound.
Your assumption is that people will choose PM's to protect their wealth if excess money is being printed. That is not true - if there is excess money in the system, people will buy assets which protect their wealth and purchasing power the best. If farmland or stocks have has better supply demand fundamentals and are generating a better ROI than PM's, people will chase that price up instead. The only advantage PM's have is they are small, portable and easy to store.
"As an extreme example, if an asteroid of gold hits the earth and gold becomes more common than copper, the price will come down to $4 / pound."
True. I that case I will try to sell my AUMN faster than others and will then buy it back after the price of gold readjusts.
"Your assumption is that people will choose PM's to protect their wealth if excess money is being printed. That is not true"
BB, I am sorry to say it, but the facts are pointing to the opposite. The price of gold/silver has been following inflation with some beta, that was changing slow over time. You may think that this behavior is irrational, but it has been around for hundreds of years, and the chance of that changing in the next 3 years is slim.
It looks like you (and millions of other traders) have an emotional attachment to your ideas and do not want to consider a trade that goes against your beliefs even if the charts are supporting the trade... Have you looked at the 5-year GLD chart recently???
We went through MULTIPLE periods of economic optimism and pessimism over the last 10 years, but the chart of GLD looks like a nice clean exponentially increasing function over that time period. So it is not fear that is driving gold. It is the exponential growth of (US Debt - US annual production).
BB - Yes, BMO's report seems to be in line with my expectation, I wasn't anticipating silver(one of many important industrial metals) would go much higher than $34~$35 this year. But it has, and it may go higher yet. Could be a bad time to sell now, as was yesterday.
I also wasn't anticipating to see a new higher high in crude oil either.
David - I'm not so sure Buffett doesn't speak with forked tongue half the time, there was a time he owned nearly all the world's silver, if I understand correctly, I just don't know what his real motivation was for buying it all up, sounds kinda wacky to me.
2nd - that's definitely the beauty of Landry's system. He only trades trending markets from what I garner. I have always had problems with stops....the main reason why is I always feel like if I have a good gain and am getting antsy then I just would rather take the gain than wait for the stock to oscillate and ultimately hit my stop at lower prices. But again that's the beauty of Landry's system. He targets stops wider than the oscillation to give yourself the best shot of avoiding getting stopped out before the big move occurs.
2nd_ave -- why not put a little money into SORL or LPH? They have absurdly low P/Es and the 1-year charts show that the recent uptrend has many more months ahead of it...
HSGFX...Had to look. Yikes. David, why do you put so much faith in him?..
"HSFGX 3 Year number is horrendous. He is down 4.5% with the S&P 500 up 93%. How does this guy not get sued?? Seriously, he has been running a net short portfolio when the prospectus clearly states he must be net long. Since early October he is down 10%+ with the S&P 500 +25%. And of course, all of these tremendous returns occur when he has the most capital under management. Bottom line, this guy is a FRAUD, and any Advisor who puts money with this fund is not abiding by their fiduciary responsibilities".
As Laz would say "the short thesis always sounds the most articulate". So too does Hussman. In his defense though he has outperformed the S&P since 1999. I'm sure he's hanging his hat on that.
I still have 2500 shares of EPM. I've had an order to sell 1000 shares at 10.25 but it just can't get there. And I'm testing screencast again. This is the first time in several weeks that I've been able to upload a chart.
ok I found some more info on Gasfrac: http://www.gasfrac.com/financialstatements/Q32011InterimReport.pdf http://www.gasfrac.com/financialstatements/ShortFormProspectusFebruary12012.pdf
looks like there's some serious dilution going on, but at the same time rev/eps growth is solid
I just got back from taking a couple dogs to the vet and having dinner with my daughter.
I just listened to the webcast for the service and while we have about 10 set ups we aren't taking on new positions until more existing longs hit their profit targets.
I traded a bit today on JIVE and RENN and added to INVN with the existing stop. JIVE was a volatility monster today and it was within a couple hundred bucks of the PT so I took half off then it corrected pretty close to the original entry and I put those shares back on and it got back quite a bit. This one requires seat belts. In comparison RENN is sedate and easy.
The trick with Landry is that initial profit target. Once you hit it or get close and take half profits, it reduces risk by half (zero really barring big gaps down) and it frees you up to worry about other things you can't control. :>)
Port, He has a trial deal for a month and he will send you the latest service notes. If you sign up for longer afterward he will cut you a deal which makes it pretty darned inexpensive. Tell him Craig the dog trainer sent you.
If you own GAZ you are probably going to lose a lot of money relative to your alternatives. Let me explain.
GAZ is an ETN – an exchange traded note issue by Barclays, whose value is linked to the return on the Dow Jones-UBS Natural Gas Subindex. ETNs, like ETFs, allow creations and redemptions by authorized participants (read: the big banks), which normally keeps their trading price closely in line with the actual net asset value of the fund. If the market price gets out of line with the net asset value, APs can create shares (when the price is too high) or redeem them (when the price is too low) to correct the mispricing.
With GAZ, however, creations of new units have been suspended, thus the fund trades like a closed end fund (redemptions are still allowed – they just make no sense, considering the huge premium to NAV. You’d never redeem your shares for their “value” which is much less – you’d just sell them instead). Now, there could be scenarios where it makes sense for investors to pay a premium to NAV in order to get exposure to a given asset class. For example, it’s not super easy for the average schmuck to go out and buy natural gas futures, so there is the possibility that one might want to pay a premium for a fund like GAZ. However, there is a competing product – $UNG – which offers very much the same exposure (although not identical exposure – there are some differences in the actual exposure held by each fund), and thus it makes somewhere between little and no sense for investors to pay up for $GAZ when they could buy $UNG instead. Of course, sometimes investors do things that don’t make sense:
Midway Gold Corp. (MDW:$1.87,00$-0.02,00-1.06%) today announced a new Indicated resource of 310,000 ounces (oz) of gold and Inferred resource of 331,000 oz of gold at the company's Gold Rock project, White Pine County, Nevada. The gold resource, which appears to be open in all directions, represents a significant increase above the previously reported 344,700 oz historic estimate.
I think perhaps the market has changed the last couple of year due to the proliferation of ETFs, high frequency trading, etc.
It seems like markets just get on trends now and stay on them for a long time until they don't, then they get on another trend. Good for longer term trading like I do, but difficult for someone like yourself who is trying to trade pullbacks, etc.
"We went through MULTIPLE periods of economic optimism and pessimism over the last 10 years, but the chart of GLD looks like a nice clean exponentially increasing function over that time period. So it is not fear that is driving gold. It is the exponential growth of (US Debt - US annual production)."
David, the last 10 years were a bull market in Gold due to the underinvestment in mines in the 1980's and 1990's as the Price of gold dropped to $250 causing a major supply shortage.
If the price of Gold was directly correlated to the US deficit, how would you explain that gold went down through the 80's when their were huge deficits?
I think extrapolating the last 10 years in gold pricing to a longer term trend is like extrapolating the NASDAQ in 1999 - could be very profitable, but also risky.
Not saying you can't make money on PM's and you know I think AUMN has a great mine - I'd just be careful in thinking that the PM's can't go down because of the deficit when they clearly have in the past.
Part of this could be supply/demand, but to compare the deficits of the 80's to now isn't a great comparison. We are talking comparisons of hundreds of billions to now almost unlimited trillions due to CDO's and other synthetic instruments that tie the entire system together in a systemic cluster fu@k. A pretty good explanation would be Geoff's morning post over at BC. The number to prevent a systemic collapse is simply too big to even calculate. In perspective, Iraq alone was far greater than the deficits of the 80's.
You have to take your hat off to OBL. He was the supreme student of Sun Tsu.
BB- You could be right about HFT screwing things up- after all, they have no emotions. No worries. I'm not about to shelve my common sense- I'm planning to wait for a pullback. All in good time.
Look, if I had the privilege of joining David Stockman for breakfast, and he were to tell me candidly that this is a sucker's rally, I would believe him. That's pretty much what he did, no?
What if you were holding tulips near the end of its run-up? You'd look pretty good for awhile. Damned good. A few months later, you'd probably lose the new house, along with the trophy wife.
AAMOF, this is sometimes why I take a break from blogs. Too much emotional ping pong. Most of the time if I tune out the noise, the news and the emotions of blogs I hold my most profitable trades. I used to think I could trade the zigs and zags, and sometimes I can, but if I just take full positions, set stops and take partial profits I do WAYYYYY better.
I'm not saying it's easy, but the noise does get in the way of maintaining sanity and emotional stasis. IMO, the market IS reality and that can be very disorienting because it simply isn't logical or predictable.
No, I hear you, Craig. But even Landry trades junk off the bottom for quick profits, not for long-term investments. Long term, a lot of these companies are ----ed.
That's why we have stops at break even and stops at a reasonable level on those positions that haven't hit the price target. The market is reality, it decides. We just use a system that lets the market decide. It's not complicated.
Not junk off the bottom. He trades trends. AAMOF, a lot of the stocks in the service are mentioned here by TOF and Jesse, but AFTER they have established a trend, not before.
A good example is GAZ. I have it on my screen and it has pulled back and may or may not trigger. It has to resume the trend or it's gone. We don't care about the fundamentals or if it's a ETN or whatever. If it trends up we buy it, wait for the PT, take off half and reset the stop at break even. We've made 1% of the total port and play with the markets money from that point. IF it goes on to much longer term profits we move the stop up and relax. The second half can be on for years...or forever as long as it doesn't stop out. That's about as long term as it gets.
you are right that deficits now are higher than the 80's, but deficits were lower in the 60's and 70'd than the 80's (both in absolute and % GDP basis), yet the price of gold went up.
The reason was because demand exceeded supply. For years, people were restricted from owning gold and, once this came off, supply exceeded demand and prices rose. Supply then increased to meet this supply and miners went up dramatically and new mines came into production. Eventually this supply overwhelmed demand and the bear market in gold started. The fact that deficits went up in the 1980's did not support the gold price.
Gold was in a supply deficit in the early 2000's and this was the basis for the great bull market we've had. Government deficits actually went down from 2003 - 2007, but the price of gold almost tripled during this period. Since 2007, deficits have skyrocketed, and gold has doubled again.
I really don't see a compelling case that the government deficit is the driver behind the gold price compared to just traditional supply / demand fundamentals.
It may not be the government deficitalone, but overall liability in the whole system. What we don't actually see is the Fed book, the total liability of all the synthetic risk of the financial system ie: international banking. That makes the government deficit look like pocket change. And we know who the central bankers work for and represent, right? Not us. Have you read Michael Lewis's "The Big Short"? If you haven't I highly recommend it. It will give you a good idea of how intertwined all these bets are.
This is just plain criminal. Look at PAA and EPD especially. Literally every single time I see Goldman upgrade a group (usually at rsi peak), the group falls off a cliff w/in days. The weekly rsi's on these are among the highest in the market. They continue to get away w/ it. I remember when they "upgraded" WFR. That day marked the exact high going forward...from 11 to 5 in 8 weeks:(
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Goldman Sachs analysts on Wednesday reiterated a buy rating on Williams Cos. WMB +1.90% and added the energy and pipeline firm to their conviction buy list. Overall, Goldman said it's "leaping into liquids infrastructure." Goldman analysts also upgraded Plains All American Pipeline LP PAA +1.04% to buy from neutral and repeated buy ratings on Enterprise Products Partners EPD +0.39% , Magellan Midstream Partners MMP +0.23% and Enduro Royalty Trust NDRO -0.53%
Like a fool I re-entered my IMMR at higher prices...long at $6.97 small position. I'm sitting with 60% cash. Long NLS and IMMR. If I had any balls I would short Gold right here. Looks like a series of lower highs since last summer.
Sold my mining services company, Foraco (FAR on the TSX). Got it for $1.79 in 2009 and out today at $4.50. It's doing really well and they have lots of business booked for next year, but the downside is so much higher than the upside if the metals do crack here. Rather just play it safe and watch - can always re-enter.
My mining exposure is now under 1% of portfolio - my main holding is HBM which is one of the most conservative miners out there with a huge cash position and a cautious CEO. That is the type of person I want leading a mining company at this juncture. I've also got a couple of really small flier positions.
Isn't his what Ron Paul's been harping on all along?
"Fed Fisher: “U.S. fiscal authorities have not gotten their act together to figure out how to construct and implement a budget that restores confidence by reeling in the nation’s long-term deficits and unfunded liabilities while encouraging investment, job creation and risk taking,” he added.
And in his only comments on U.S. monetary policy, Fisher noted that while the Fed formally adopted a long-term inflation target of 2%, it did not set one for employment “because ‘nonmonetary’ factors have as much or more influence on employment dynamics as does monetary policy.”
“I personally consider this an important signal to our fiscal authorities that they cannot expect inflation to absolve them of their duty — the need to institute fiscal and regulatory reforms necessary to restore sustainable employment growth,”
See, I'm still confused a little on what exactly happened, and tend to lean more towards the LTRO not being a huge 1Tr euro event, more than towards what Bernanke just said, but if today's gyration was over Bernanke's words, that tells me he can crush PM's and oil along with everything else if he cares to, and sounds credible while doing it.
So much for the idea of a hyper-inflationary Armageddon, it's more likely to go the other way if anything. All he must do is tighten and inflationary pressures instantly disappear like magic.
Either event wouldn't fix the problems he's trying to solve, DC needs to get off their duffs and accomplish some good.
I like the last sentence but I think it takes more than Ben's magic word wand to change the picture. There is a difference between the crazy market over-reactions to news for a few minutes and actually solving the problem.
The first sign of tightening will crush a lot of stuff except TBT. That isn't going to be pretty and then we are back to the other side of the problem. Higher rates and yields will have a big affect on demand/consumption. Although savers hopefully will get their due.
Here is gold's thesis, it's up to you whether you buy in to it or not, I do.
Jim’s Formula: September 1, 2006
1. First interest rates rise affecting the drivers of the US economy, housing, but before that auto production goes from bull to a bear markets.
2. This impacts many other industries and the jobs report. An economy is either rising at a rising rate or business activity is falling at an increasing rate. That is economic law 101. There is no such thing in any market as a Plateau of Prosperity or Cinderella – Goldilocks situations.
3. We have witnessed the Dow rise on economic news indicating deceleration of activity. This continues until major corporations announced poor earnings, making the Dow fall faster than it rose, moving it deeply into the red.
4. The formula economically is inherent in #2 which is lower economic activity equals lower profits.
5. Lower profits leads to lower Federal Tax revenues.
6. Lower Federal tax revenues in the face of increased Federal spending causes geometric, not arithmetic, rises in the US Federal Budget deficit. This is also true for cities & States as it is for the Federal government.
7. The increased US Federal Budget deficit in the face of a US Trade Deficit increases the US Current Account Deficit.
8. The US Current Account Balance is the speedometer of the money exiting the US into world markets (deficit).
9. It is this deficit that must be met by incoming investment in the US in any form. It could be anything from businesses, equities to Treasury instruments. We are already seeing a fall off in the situation of developing nations carrying the spending habits of industrial nations; a contradiction in terms.
10. If the investment by non US entities fails to meet the exiting dollars by all means, then the US must turn within to finance the shortfall.
11. Assuming the US turns inside to finance all maturities, interest rates will rise with the long term rates moving fastest regardless of prevailing business conditions.
12. This will further contract business activity and start a downward spiral of unparalleled dimension because the size of US debt already issued is of unparalleled dimension.
Therefore as you get to #12 you are automatically right back at #1. This is an economic downward spiral.
I heard all this “slow business” as negative to gold talk in the 70s. It was totally wrong then. It will be exactly the same now.
What a shock for gold/silver traders today! It's good that I am not one of them -- I am an investor, and today's move is just noise on the long-term chart. :)
"David, the last 10 years were a bull market in Gold due to the underinvestment in mines in the 1980's and 1990's as the Price of gold dropped to $250 causing a major supply shortage."
As I understand, it is not easy to make new gold discoveries. If it were, the gold supply would have responded by now already...
"If the price of Gold was directly correlated to the US deficit, how would you explain that gold went down through the 80's when their were huge deficits?"
We already went through this several times on this blog. Hopefully my answer will be remembered this time: THE TOTAL DEBT BACK THEN WAS MUCH LOWER THAN IT IS NOW. Research by Rogoff and Reinhart showed that once the total debt rises above 90% of GDP, growth slows down by 1% and keeps slowing as the debt is rising relative to GDP. Here is what John Mauldin wrote about this a couple of weeks ago:
"Kennedy, Reagan, and Bush cut taxes, and the economy grew and more taxes were collected in total within a few years. But we are no longer able to cut marginal income tax rates and borrow to pay the deficit, waiting for growth to happen to make the cuts "pay for themselves." We have simply borrowed too much. We are close to the limit. We must find other options."
"I think extrapolating the last 10 years in gold pricing to a longer term trend is like extrapolating the NASDAQ in 1999 - could be very profitable, but also risky."
The growth in NASDAQ in 1999 collapsed under its own weight. It was a pure bubble. This time, gold will not collapse until the US figures out how to stabilize the growth of debt relative to GDP. So we'll have a clear trigger warning us that the gold trade is over. We are not there yet.
"I really don't see a compelling case that the government deficit is the driver behind the gold price compared to just traditional supply / demand fundamentals."
All right, at lower levels of US Debt/GDP, other drivers might have existed as well. However, with US debt recently rising over 100% of GDP, all the other drivers become unimportant (save for a gold meteorite hitting Earth). Let's not forget this important point: as the value of variables in the world financial/economic system change, NEW forces appear in the system.
Yesterday, I looked at the 1-year chart of April NG futures, and saw exactly the same pattern as in S&P in September -- a parabolic collapse followed by high-volatility movement sideways. That's a classical bottoming pattern that I talked about back in September. It didn't fail that time, and I suspect it won't fail us with UNG this time as well...
SVM looks kinda good. Nice long bottoming pattern. Volatile as a mofo.
I bought some more IMMR today at $6.78 and $6.71. Avg is around $6.86. Small position.
Since my buying lately has been bad other than NLS, I figured I would do a little selling of NLS just to see if it holds. So I sold some at $2.78 (5k shs) and it didn't budge. Now I just gotta decide if I should sell more since it's taking the selling well or hold. I'm just not feeling great holding much into this week's jobs numbers but most likely it will be a drop and then buy em up reaction.
That Stockton guy 2nd posted about above has been bearish for a while just FYI. However, deep down I do kinda agree with him and combined with the big hit I took in WFR I'm getting more cautious.
AUMN - I had a bead on this one at $7.90ish, but wonder whether it can really go that low...
It's already up 75% off the bottom too, but the Max Pain was $10 last I checked yesterday. I was and still am attracted, but SVM calls me to my grave....
We go up I think, everybody back to your battle stations, nothing to see here.
Given the long base SLV made for a month between late Jan and late Feb before launching its latest rally, I think today's drop is just a short-term knockout. So I just bought 5 contracts of April $33 calls on SLV at $2.28.
2nd said, "Today's bullshit in the gold sector is exactly why I don't trade the sector."
Bullion is down only -4.13%. Is this type of movement really any different than any other equity? This is just the nature of the beast or the playground we run in.
The only way around it is to buy mutual funds or indexes for reduced volatility.
I read what you are saying is that Gold has to go up because of issues with the money / inflation. That is incorrect - Gold will only go up if enough people believe that buying gold will protect them and want to buy more than is being produced. If there are more sellers than buyers, anything goes down in price.
The other comment you made David is correct in that it is hard to get new gold out of the ground. Mines are long term, so once you've built one, you keep producing as long as the marginal cost is less than the price of the product you are selling. That is why mine production continued to grow after the price peaked in the 1980's. Similarly, it takes a long time to get new mine production growing which is why it has taken so long to get the Gold supply rising even with much higher prices, but I understand that worldwide gold production is now growing. I'm not sure if it is enough to push the price down (it depends on whether demand is growing faster), but the growth in supply in the early 80's did signal then of that bull market.
All I am trying to say here is be careful, keep your eyes open and don't be too dogmatic that Gold has to continue up. Even ipads will come down in price if Apple produces more of them than people want to purchase at that price.
Bought some Symetra yesterday (SYA). Another dirt cheap insurance company at 44% of book value, P/E of 7 and just raised their dividend yesterday to give a 2.8% yield.
It is half owned by a Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary and half by White Mountain insurance (both strong companies).
They have a rock solid balance sheet and pretty broad product lines - I think it is so cheap because they provide health insurance coverage which could get hurt by Obamacare, but they feel pretty confident otherwise. Even if this business did get hurt, they would still be a good company to own.
of course my computer crashes today. i had to call in all trades. i sold my immr at a loss and sold my nls at $2.72 to $2.78 today (from $2.58 avg). im putting myself in the penalty box after a disastrous two weeks. lopped off about 10% of port and about 35% of my gains for the yr. lesson i learned is to take a loss quicker and yet again to only short term trade stuff. im not a buy and holder. every time i want to do that i take a big hit.
"I read what you are saying is that Gold has to go up because of issues with the money / inflation. That is incorrect - Gold will only go up if enough people believe that buying gold will protect them and want to buy more than is being produced. If there are more sellers than buyers, anything goes down in price."
We already went through this -- over hundreds years, gold has been going up with some beta relative to inflation. This behavior is not going to change in the past 3 years, so there is no point debating whether it is rational or not. What we need to look at right now is whether or not the long-term inflation prospects that have been driving gold up since 2000 (the US debt/GDP has been increasing monotonically since 2000) are about to change.
As has been shown already, long-term inflation is driving by debt/GDP ratio rising above 90% rather then the central bank policy (which in the long is REQUIRED to debase the currency so as to prevent the debt rising to unacceptable levels, so it totally doesn't matter what they do or say in the short term).
So, once again, we are coming back to the question: have US figured out a way to stabilize its debt/GDP growth? Until they do it, gold will keep going up.
Why does it ALWAYS happen that whenever something seems certain to me (like the pullback in AUMN being over at $9) and I load up on call options to take advantage of that, the opposite always happens???
David - whenever this happens to me that's my first thought. I have to force myself to remember the good trades that I've made so I can get my thinking out of the gutter. I'm feeling in a rut right now just because of my recent trades going bad but I have to remind myself I'm still up big this year and that some of the trades I made went really well. I like to take a break for at least a couple of days after that happens just to regain my confidence. Like Jesse said earlier this year it's all about confidence.
I think as humans we're always conditioned to focus on the negatives/fear just because we were conditioned that way. Think about back when people were living in the woods their primary concern was survival (food/water) and probably fear of being attacked. After finding food I don't think humans were sitting back and relishing the food they were eating. They were probably concerned about the next time they would be hungry. Obviously now our lives are a helluva lot easier, but we still have those fear/negative instincts in us. Just remember that you made some great trades in AUMN/SORL etc lately so take the time to remember those ones too.
Having said that, I'm afraid of trading more right now. ha!
David, I'm not sure logic applies at all... this looks like a failed breakout to me, which becomes in my mind a waiting game until confidence is regained. ;)
I'm quite shocked I didn't lose my a$$ today and quite thankful for all the supporting comments...
Anyone who has ever tried trading knows it's a lot harder then it looks. Most people probably had a rough day unless they were lucky enough to be realy short gold. I certainly feel like I have struggled to make much headway in the last two weeks, just up down and a good down today. I have a few really smart traders who have just about stopped all trading for the last three weeks because its just been too hard.
Remember, one day does not make a month or year. It is consistenly doings things right that pays off in the long-term, get that right and we will all do well. And TOF's comment about knowing one's DNA is very important, you are who you are.
When I buy long-term, seldom, the only thing that works for me is to take 15k to 25k bets and then do not look at it or if I do ignore what I see. When I have done this, seldom, in ten years it usually looks good. I think Nat Gas is one of those situtations now.
Anyway, better days are ahead, remember if it was easy everyone would do it. And its alright to do nothing but observe.
The VIX futures were slightly down today and CDX.NA.HY spreads barely rose, so "smart money" does not think that today is the start of a big correction...
Yogi Bear, we do seem to like larger cap size issues. I let GLL go way too soon about half way thru the drop. All in all they smacked me pretty good today.
TOF, ECA for Nat Gas would be my play these etf's always seem to have some wrinkle in them.
The way I'm playing Natty is to buy ECA as my large cap, then a bunch of low-cost Canadian junior producers with good leverage and then sit back and wait for them to rise (probably sometime this year!).
here is an article/chart I really think you should look at.
It's the chart from 1995, the last time before 2012 we had no 1% down days in Jan. / Feb. It was a 34% up year with basically no pullbacks.
Not saying this will happen this year and the second chart they show, from 1964 (the previous time it happened) had a couple of pullback entry points, but it is something to consider.
At 11:15 AM ET I bought 200 shares of CF at $186.40. Remembering what happened in Nov/Dec I promptly set a stop. CF traded to a low for the day of 184.75 around 11:30 AM. My stop was set at 184.78 and my fill was 184.77. After making the low CF immediately traded up to the 189 area and then drifted down to close around $186. I was planning on switching my order to a trailing stop around $188.00. They got me.
LTRO 1 saw €935.4 million, while LTRO 2 was at €661 million per bank, with 800 banks participating. The total euros issued was 530 billion euros earning an interest rate of 1%.
From Bernanke (no QE):
"The economy is getting better based on what we can see of the employment numbers but it is not growing at a fast enough clip to justify any immediate change in our accomodative monetary policy. The uptick in hiring has been helped by this policy and any change to it at the present time is not warranted. Real Estate is still a concern. Us fiscal condition is dire and faces a serious challenge at the end of this year. Inflation is not a concern although temporary rises in energy prices bear monitoring".
assuming the natty rally doesn't start this week, I can see where the weather over the next couple of weeks can really help with the final push down for natty. For the most part I have to stay hedged everyday on my positions but I think the boss might be ok with going long in the $2.20's. I think the Hub was around the low 2.40's in cash today. I wasn't looking too close because I was working on some other stuff and buying CF.
I did see one daily report where they are bullish natty for the next couple of days due to the cold weather moving across the county but it warms up again early next week.
Bernanke must be listening to Achutang, who re-affirmed his recession call recently, saying the coincident indicators have been deteriorating for 4 consecutive months now...
Even the weekly chart was gettin' a little on the frothy side, considering the current circumstances, although I'm not really sure the circumstances are really quite all that uncertain on a longer time horizon...
I can imagine they would talk the markets down and distribute government securities into the crowd rushing to safety while they wait until the panic subsides (they will give the signal for this too) to begin buying equities.
Take a look at this, we have to figure out which stocks to include but this is one of my favorite features to use on stockcharts. Once we get it narrowed down, I can at least see what Tudor and Credit Suisse have to say about them.
I keep thinking that if I didn't have any charts to look at, and I just looked at the financial and fundamental data for a particular company, I'd probably buy AAPL.
If anyone has an interest, post your top 3 natty stocks and I'll see what I can find out tomorrow.
This is free but I'd pay for it just for the jokes.
"Got Random Thoughts:
The market tried to rally but came back in to close in the minus column. This action formed an outside day down. I'm sure the candle people have an ominous name for this like Fat Sumo With A Loose Belt Under A Rain Cloud. Whatever you call it, it's not that big of a deal--just a slightly negative day. Longer-term, the persistent uptrend remains intact.
Not much has changed. Since the market hasn't really pulled back, I'm still not seeing a lot of new meaningful setups. So, continue to manage what you have. Take partial profits as offered, trail stops higher, and honor your stops just in case. Also, if you do like a setup, make sure you wait for entries just in case we see a little more weakness.
yo mark - i sucked it up and bought a macbook pro so you can't call me a cheapskate anymore.
anyone know of a good way to take advantage of the switch to nat gas that is going to take place in our country? i'm thinking from a biz opportunity...
Doobies are not hostile brother. we went over this before about Gold. I don't like gold because it is just a rock with no value. I do watch PMs through SWC. Still cannot believe I did not pick up a large position in that sucker at $8.00. I feel more comfy in that stock because of its location in the FREE world and the industrial uses of those particular metals.. I don't trust miners in hostile land. I guess I am a patriot. That being said SWC is probably extremely correlated with silver price so I cannot claim any advantage in price action. Plus i do not own it at this time, But am watching for a 15 break on some volume. When does Ben speak next?
ReplyDeleteCP -- the reluctance of smart people (even Buffett!) to get into the PM market now shows just how much our actions are driven by our emotions (reluctance to admit that our prior logic was wrong, preference to be hurt by something we know rather than by something we haven't tried before, etc.). I watched myself trading for 6 years now and I do see a huge impact of my emotions on my trading/investing. So I am not surprised to see that.
ReplyDeletecp sorry bro i really had no idea i came across as hostile. i totally get the gold concept but u know my take on it i just cant value the damn thing so i stick to crap i hhave no idea about like wfr and womens workout eeqpmt (nls). ha.
ReplyDeleteseriously tho i do agree with uncle warren that housing might be a better investment than stocks but i think its because of the inflation factor. my wife and i were talking about this yesterday actually. look at the value of goods over past 30 yrs. to be able to fixed debt in at 4% or under for 30 yrs is pretty freaking good.
again sorry for coming across as hostile. thats the downside to trying to type a joke. without facial expressions and hand gestures it can come out the wrong way
"I don't like gold because it is just a rock with no value."
ReplyDeleteRB -- you can't eat a paper dollar either. :)
Since you can easily exchange gold/silver for dollars and buy things, we should treat gold/silver LIKE A CURRENCY, which MANY smart people have suggested previously (but most people still don't want to hear it). Gold/silver had a currency status for thousands of years, and thus the chance of them changing that status in the next couple of years is pretty slim.
Thus, the supply/demand we should be watching here is the supply of paper money vs. the amount of goods and services that can be bought with them. The increase in the former relative to the latter implies inflation, and gold will rise to track it, as it did for hundreds of years (I don't care whether it did so rightfully or not, but applying cool logic to it I just see that the chance of that changing in the next few years is pretty much 0).
The ONLY threat to a long-term investment in gold/silver is some smart change in the US tax code (an issue that John Mauldin has been discussing in his weekly letters recently) that will significantly reduce the deficit going forward. If that happens, then I'll sell all my AUMN immediately.
i really think the expiration of thes subsidies in solar after the exp of ethanol subsidies is going to have a postive impact on nat gas down the road. its the only cheap option now
ReplyDeleteNotice, folks -- I would totally agree with Buffet about preferring farm land and Exxon over gold over the interval of 100 years. However, over the interval of the next 3 years (which is my horizon until AUMN constructs a new 2000 tpd mill and becomes fairly valued as a result), I think AUMN will EASILY beat all Exxons and farmers. :)
ReplyDeleteCP,
ReplyDeleteBMO, who is Canada's top rated research brokerage, and probably the best of the large ones on commodities produces a weekly Silver Report tracking the Silver Fundamentals by mines, scrapage, ETF's etc.
They are calling for $32 Silver this year, $40 next, $32 the year after and then $21 long term.
If you want I can email it to you.
No wonder WFR is underperforming:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0MjW3QKgDYo
Dear lord...the horror...
DeleteDavid,
ReplyDeleteYou still need to watch the supply/demand of the individual commodity, regardless of dollar printing. If we didn't have enough food, those dollars would chase farmland before PM's. If there is 100 million more ounces of Silver a year than people want, the price will go down regardless of how many dollars are out there. As an extreme example, if an asteroid of gold hits the earth and gold becomes more common than copper, the price will come down to $4 / pound.
Your assumption is that people will choose PM's to protect their wealth if excess money is being printed. That is not true - if there is excess money in the system, people will buy assets which protect their wealth and purchasing power the best. If farmland or stocks have has better supply demand fundamentals and are generating a better ROI than PM's, people will chase that price up instead. The only advantage PM's have is they are small, portable and easy to store.
I looked up Hussman's flagship fund (HSGFX) in YHOO Finance, and for kicks decided to read a few of the Message Board posts. Holy shit, man.
ReplyDeleteNow that's hostility.
DeleteCC: Read Ron Sen's comment re the limitations of RSI7 values in strongly trending markets.
ReplyDelete"As an extreme example, if an asteroid of gold hits the earth and gold becomes more common than copper, the price will come down to $4 / pound."
ReplyDeleteTrue. I that case I will try to sell my AUMN faster than others and will then buy it back after the price of gold readjusts.
"Your assumption is that people will choose PM's to protect their wealth if excess money is being printed. That is not true"
BB, I am sorry to say it, but the facts are pointing to the opposite. The price of gold/silver has been following inflation with some beta, that was changing slow over time. You may think that this behavior is irrational, but it has been around for hundreds of years, and the chance of that changing in the next 3 years is slim.
It looks like you (and millions of other traders) have an emotional attachment to your ideas and do not want to consider a trade that goes against your beliefs even if the charts are supporting the trade... Have you looked at the 5-year GLD chart recently???
I have to admit to being completely wrong YTD. I should have stayed in FBGRX through this entire uptrend. Any TFM kicked my ass.
ReplyDeleteWe went through MULTIPLE periods of economic optimism and pessimism over the last 10 years, but the chart of GLD looks like a nice clean exponentially increasing function over that time period. So it is not fear that is driving gold. It is the exponential growth of (US Debt - US annual production).
ReplyDeleteI take some consolation in knowing I am at least not short the NDQ. So I'm just getting my ass kicked, rather than getting Kass-kicked.
ReplyDeleteBB - Yes, BMO's report seems to be in line with my expectation, I wasn't anticipating silver(one of many important industrial metals) would go much higher than $34~$35 this year. But it has, and it may go higher yet. Could be a bad time to sell now, as was yesterday.
ReplyDeleteI also wasn't anticipating to see a new higher high in crude oil either.
David - I'm not so sure Buffett doesn't speak with forked tongue half the time, there was a time he owned nearly all the world's silver, if I understand correctly, I just don't know what his real motivation was for buying it all up, sounds kinda wacky to me.
Actually, at this point in the rally, a negative sentiment guy like me completely loses interest. There's very little to hang my hat on.
ReplyDeleteThere's always WFR??
DeleteFTWR?
DeleteOf course, that's what Craig was referring to when he commented that following Landry would completely change my trading approach.
ReplyDelete2nd - that's definitely the beauty of Landry's system. He only trades trending markets from what I garner. I have always had problems with stops....the main reason why is I always feel like if I have a good gain and am getting antsy then I just would rather take the gain than wait for the stock to oscillate and ultimately hit my stop at lower prices. But again that's the beauty of Landry's system. He targets stops wider than the oscillation to give yourself the best shot of avoiding getting stopped out before the big move occurs.
ReplyDelete2nd_ave -- why not put a little money into SORL or LPH? They have absurdly low P/Es and the 1-year charts show that the recent uptrend has many more months ahead of it...
ReplyDeleteRB- Wonder if there is a Santorum Mitt?
ReplyDeleteHSGFX...Had to look. Yikes. David, why do you put so much faith in him?..
ReplyDelete"HSFGX 3 Year number is horrendous. He is down 4.5% with the S&P 500 up 93%. How does this guy not get sued?? Seriously, he has been running a net short portfolio when the prospectus clearly states he must be net long. Since early October he is down 10%+ with the S&P 500 +25%. And of course, all of these tremendous returns occur when he has the most capital under management. Bottom line, this guy is a FRAUD, and any Advisor who puts money with this fund is not abiding by their fiduciary responsibilities".
OK, I did correct the spelling :)
As Laz would say "the short thesis always sounds the most articulate". So too does Hussman. In his defense though he has outperformed the S&P since 1999. I'm sure he's hanging his hat on that.
DeleteI remember asking all my peeps about Gasfrac GSFVF a few weeks ago and no one knew anything about them What a worthless bunch of coworkers I have.
ReplyDeleteMark - the worst part is people clapped after the MEMC dinner show.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/aaBeFG6Ggbgy
ReplyDeleteI still have 2500 shares of EPM. I've had an order to sell 1000 shares at 10.25 but it just can't get there. And I'm testing screencast again. This is the first time in several weeks that I've been able to upload a chart.
GSFVF is very interesting BB. where do you get the public info on that sucker?
ReplyDeleteNo reason to store oil with a forward curve like this.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/tgMEqjxZ
ok I found some more info on Gasfrac:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gasfrac.com/financialstatements/Q32011InterimReport.pdf
http://www.gasfrac.com/financialstatements/ShortFormProspectusFebruary12012.pdf
looks like there's some serious dilution going on, but at the same time rev/eps growth is solid
looks like their revs/eps figures are all over the place the last several quarters.
ReplyDeletePort - Thanks for the chart but help me out, no need to store?
ReplyDeleteI just got back from taking a couple dogs to the vet and having dinner with my daughter.
ReplyDeleteI just listened to the webcast for the service and while we have about 10 set ups we aren't taking on new positions until more existing longs hit their profit targets.
I traded a bit today on JIVE and RENN and added to INVN with the existing stop. JIVE was a volatility monster today and it was within a couple hundred bucks of the PT so I took half off then it corrected pretty close to the original entry and I put those shares back on and it got back quite a bit. This one requires seat belts. In comparison RENN is sedate and easy.
The trick with Landry is that initial profit target. Once you hit it or get close and take half profits, it reduces risk by half (zero really barring big gaps down) and it frees you up to worry about other things you can't control. :>)
GMO - "General Moly Places Haul Truck Fleet Order with Caterpillar"
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/general-moly-places-haul-truck-225100918.html
cc - i really like Landry's system from what I've read of your postings. I may sign up this weekend.
ReplyDeletecp - some peeps will always have to store oil for one reason or another but the arbitrage guys won't.
Port, He has a trial deal for a month and he will send you the latest service notes. If you sign up for longer afterward he will cut you a deal which makes it pretty darned inexpensive.
DeleteTell him Craig the dog trainer sent you.
natty is getting awfully close to the old bottom. it either bounces hard here or makes marginal new lows and bounces hard. i say the latter.
ReplyDeleteGAZ looks like a good ETF for natty no? Looks like it's tied a bit better to the nat gas price than UNG
ReplyDeleteIf you own GAZ you are probably going to lose a lot of money relative to your alternatives. Let me explain.
ReplyDeleteGAZ is an ETN – an exchange traded note issue by Barclays, whose value is linked to the return on the Dow Jones-UBS Natural Gas Subindex. ETNs, like ETFs, allow creations and redemptions by authorized participants (read: the big banks), which normally keeps their trading price closely in line with the actual net asset value of the fund. If the market price gets out of line with the net asset value, APs can create shares (when the price is too high) or redeem them (when the price is too low) to correct the mispricing.
With GAZ, however, creations of new units have been suspended, thus the fund trades like a closed end fund (redemptions are still allowed – they just make no sense, considering the huge premium to NAV. You’d never redeem your shares for their “value” which is much less – you’d just sell them instead). Now, there could be scenarios where it makes sense for investors to pay a premium to NAV in order to get exposure to a given asset class. For example, it’s not super easy for the average schmuck to go out and buy natural gas futures, so there is the possibility that one might want to pay a premium for a fund like GAZ. However, there is a competing product – $UNG – which offers very much the same exposure (although not identical exposure – there are some differences in the actual exposure held by each fund), and thus it makes somewhere between little and no sense for investors to pay up for $GAZ when they could buy $UNG instead. Of course, sometimes investors do things that don’t make sense:
http://kiddynamitesworld.com/gaz-the-ultimate-greater-fool-trade/
I think in the past Jesse mentioned these four:
DeleteBOIL
GAZ
UNG
UNL
By memory I think he prefers BOIL and UNL
Midway Gold Corp. (MDW:$1.87,00$-0.02,00-1.06%) today announced a new Indicated resource of 310,000 ounces (oz) of gold and Inferred resource of 331,000 oz of gold at the company's Gold Rock project, White Pine County, Nevada. The gold resource, which appears to be open in all directions, represents a significant increase above the previously reported 344,700 oz historic estimate.
ReplyDeleteFor those who read Grantham you know he prefersgold in ground resources to bullion. His last five new buys in the 4th Q are,
ReplyDeleteGFI
GG
AUY
AU
RGLD
TOF,
ReplyDeleteGasfrac trades on the TSX, so their filings are at:
http://www.sedar.com/search/search_form_pc_en.htm
2nd,
ReplyDeleteI think perhaps the market has changed the last couple of year due to the proliferation of ETFs, high frequency trading, etc.
It seems like markets just get on trends now and stay on them for a long time until they don't, then they get on another trend. Good for longer term trading like I do, but difficult for someone like yourself who is trying to trade pullbacks, etc.
If 'we' think natty is going to turn, the most gassy play is XCO.
ReplyDelete"We went through MULTIPLE periods of economic optimism and pessimism over the last 10 years, but the chart of GLD looks like a nice clean exponentially increasing function over that time period. So it is not fear that is driving gold. It is the exponential growth of (US Debt - US annual production)."
ReplyDeleteDavid, the last 10 years were a bull market in Gold due to the underinvestment in mines in the 1980's and 1990's as the Price of gold dropped to $250 causing a major supply shortage.
If the price of Gold was directly correlated to the US deficit, how would you explain that gold went down through the 80's when their were huge deficits?
I think extrapolating the last 10 years in gold pricing to a longer term trend is like extrapolating the NASDAQ in 1999 - could be very profitable, but also risky.
Not saying you can't make money on PM's and you know I think AUMN has a great mine - I'd just be careful in thinking that the PM's can't go down because of the deficit when they clearly have in the past.
Part of this could be supply/demand, but to compare the deficits of the 80's to now isn't a great comparison.
DeleteWe are talking comparisons of hundreds of billions to now almost unlimited trillions due to CDO's and other synthetic instruments that tie the entire system together in a systemic cluster fu@k.
A pretty good explanation would be Geoff's morning post over at BC.
The number to prevent a systemic collapse is simply too big to even calculate.
In perspective, Iraq alone was far greater than the deficits of the 80's.
You have to take your hat off to OBL. He was the supreme student of Sun Tsu.
AUMN - Looks like someone's up to no good again with this one, that must mean the stakes are big enough to put up a fight for.
ReplyDeleteXCO - It's a roger on the watch list! No need to be tight-lipped! ;)
ReplyDeleteBB- You could be right about HFT screwing things up- after all, they have no emotions. No worries. I'm not about to shelve my common sense- I'm planning to wait for a pullback. All in good time.
ReplyDeleteWe aren't putting any new positions on, so that seems reasonable unless you are already long.
DeleteIf there's one nice thing about an extended market like this one, it's that I'm no longer emotionally engaged.
ReplyDeleteMeaning I'm not even thinking about opening a position.
DeleteLOL, I go get a cup of joe and both silver and gold are red...
ReplyDeleteAnd a raid on the miners as well...
ReplyDeleteI might be glad I sold 1/2 my position after all, if this turns out to be a fake rally...
Look, if I had the privilege of joining David Stockman for breakfast, and he were to tell me candidly that this is a sucker's rally, I would believe him. That's pretty much what he did, no?
ReplyDeleteThe only reason we will survive the ensuing correction is we have stops in place. And we trade the swings.
DeleteNow that earnings season is over and the Euro crisis has been 'resolved,' what's left to take this market higher?
ReplyDeleteI don't think it will be iPad3.
DeleteDoes the market listen to him?
ReplyDeleteWhat if he's wrong. Just saying.
The more I look at ECA, the more I should just buy and should have never sold it. If I could change my DNA, I would pick BB's style of investing.
The market listens to no one, but ultimately respects reality.
DeleteIn fact, now that Hussman has been declared persona non grata, the odds of his outlook coming to fruition have improved.
DeleteMyth #7. Page 16.
DeleteDavid Stockman is not the market. Don't confuse the issue with facts.
What if you were holding tulips near the end of its run-up? You'd look pretty good for awhile. Damned good. A few months later, you'd probably lose the new house, along with the trophy wife.
DeleteVery true...
DeleteAAMOF, this is sometimes why I take a break from blogs. Too much emotional ping pong.
DeleteMost of the time if I tune out the noise, the news and the emotions of blogs I hold my most profitable trades. I used to think I could trade the zigs and zags, and sometimes I can, but if I just take full positions, set stops and take partial profits I do WAYYYYY better.
I'm not saying it's easy, but the noise does get in the way of maintaining sanity and emotional stasis.
IMO, the market IS reality and that can be very disorienting because it simply isn't logical or predictable.
No, I hear you, Craig. But even Landry trades junk off the bottom for quick profits, not for long-term investments. Long term, a lot of these companies are ----ed.
DeleteThat's why we have stops at break even and stops at a reasonable level on those positions that haven't hit the price target. The market is reality, it decides. We just use a system that lets the market decide. It's not complicated.
DeleteMyth #7. Page 16
DeleteCould you please reference document or state myth #7?
Do not get me wrong our/my country has become one big cluster F--K. When Stockman talks, he makes the most sense of anyone.
Not junk off the bottom. He trades trends. AAMOF, a lot of the stocks in the service are mentioned here by TOF and Jesse, but AFTER they have established a trend, not before.
DeleteA good example is GAZ. I have it on my screen and it has pulled back and may or may not trigger. It has to resume the trend or it's gone. We don't care about the fundamentals or if it's a ETN or whatever. If it trends up we buy it, wait for the PT, take off half and reset the stop at break even. We've made 1% of the total port and play with the markets money from that point. IF it goes on to much longer term profits we move the stop up and relax.
The second half can be on for years...or forever as long as it doesn't stop out. That's about as long term as it gets.
Looks like PAL and SWC might continue higher.
ReplyDeleteTC - Might be bottomed here...
ReplyDeleteWas thinking of trying to add to WFR @ 4.01, but I'll wait till I get back.
ReplyDeleteLooks like I might not have to wait till I get back.
ReplyDeleteI think TC s crappy earnings(do they ever have any other kind?) is holding back SWC and pal.
ReplyDeleteAll right, bidding 2 lots @ 4.01.
ReplyDeleteLet's send CP out for more coffee, maybe gold/silver prices come back.
ReplyDeleteFuck it. I'm wrong on WFR. Sold it all at $4.02. Took away 1/3 of my gains this year.
ReplyDeletegold just puked
ReplyDeletecoverd GLL at 15.61
DeleteDo we have any FED speak coming up?
ReplyDeletebeen ongoing Bear
DeleteCC,
ReplyDeleteyou are right that deficits now are higher than the 80's, but deficits were lower in the 60's and 70'd than the 80's (both in absolute and % GDP basis), yet the price of gold went up.
The reason was because demand exceeded supply. For years, people were restricted from owning gold and, once this came off, supply exceeded demand and prices rose. Supply then increased to meet this supply and miners went up dramatically and new mines came into production. Eventually this supply overwhelmed demand and the bear market in gold started. The fact that deficits went up in the 1980's did not support the gold price.
Gold was in a supply deficit in the early 2000's and this was the basis for the great bull market we've had. Government deficits actually went down from 2003 - 2007, but the price of gold almost tripled during this period. Since 2007, deficits have skyrocketed, and gold has doubled again.
I really don't see a compelling case that the government deficit is the driver behind the gold price compared to just traditional supply / demand fundamentals.
It may not be the government deficitalone, but overall liability in the whole system. What we don't actually see is the Fed book, the total liability of all the synthetic risk of the financial system ie: international banking. That makes the government deficit look like pocket change. And we know who the central bankers work for and represent, right? Not us.
DeleteHave you read Michael Lewis's "The Big Short"? If you haven't I highly recommend it.
It will give you a good idea of how intertwined all these bets are.
Got to run. Got 2 minutes. Why are PM's crashing? Hurry!!
ReplyDelete1 minute.
DeleteOUT.
DeleteThis is just plain criminal. Look at PAA and EPD especially. Literally every single time I see Goldman upgrade a group (usually at rsi peak), the group falls off a cliff w/in days. The weekly rsi's on these are among the highest in the market. They continue to get away w/ it. I remember when they "upgraded" WFR. That day marked the exact high going forward...from 11 to 5 in 8 weeks:(
ReplyDeleteNEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Goldman Sachs analysts on Wednesday reiterated a buy rating on Williams Cos. WMB +1.90% and added the energy and pipeline firm to their conviction buy list. Overall, Goldman said it's "leaping into liquids infrastructure." Goldman analysts also upgraded Plains All American Pipeline LP PAA +1.04% to buy from neutral and repeated buy ratings on Enterprise Products Partners EPD +0.39% , Magellan Midstream Partners MMP +0.23% and Enduro Royalty Trust NDRO -0.53%
Bernanke must've taken away the candy cane...
ReplyDeleteI have to credit you CP for the GLL trade when you mentioned the other day that they were banging oil down and asked when is gold's knock down coming.
DeleteOf course it is coming on the day Mr. screw the populous Bernack is speaking to congress. Perfect by them.
What's AAMOF? Duh
ReplyDeleteAs a matter of fact.
DeleteThat explains the moves!
ReplyDeleteInteresting that Copper is hanging in so well with Gold getting trashed.
ReplyDeleteLike a fool I re-entered my IMMR at higher prices...long at $6.97 small position. I'm sitting with 60% cash. Long NLS and IMMR. If I had any balls I would short Gold right here. Looks like a series of lower highs since last summer.
ReplyDeleteFSG - That sent this one back into the $26's, hope it stays there awhile and/or drops like a rock.
ReplyDeleteSold my mining services company, Foraco (FAR on the TSX). Got it for $1.79 in 2009 and out today at $4.50. It's doing really well and they have lots of business booked for next year, but the downside is so much higher than the upside if the metals do crack here. Rather just play it safe and watch - can always re-enter.
ReplyDeleteMy mining exposure is now under 1% of portfolio - my main holding is HBM which is one of the most conservative miners out there with a huge cash position and a cautious CEO. That is the type of person I want leading a mining company at this juncture. I've also got a couple of really small flier positions.
Looks like I sold near the lows of the day on WFR...never fails!
ReplyDeleteIsn't his what Ron Paul's been harping on all along?
ReplyDelete"Fed Fisher:
“U.S. fiscal authorities have not gotten their act together to
figure out how to construct and implement a budget that restores
confidence by reeling in the nation’s long-term deficits and unfunded
liabilities while encouraging investment, job creation and risk taking,”
he added.
And in his only comments on U.S. monetary policy, Fisher noted that
while the Fed formally adopted a long-term inflation target of 2%, it
did not set one for employment “because ‘nonmonetary’ factors have as
much or more influence on employment dynamics as does monetary policy.”
“I personally consider this an important signal to our fiscal
authorities that they cannot expect inflation to absolve them of their
duty — the need to institute fiscal and regulatory reforms necessary to
restore sustainable employment growth,”
Yeah, we witnessed the reaction, but was it a head fake or a trend change?
ReplyDeleteVote here:
See, I'm still confused a little on what exactly happened, and tend to lean more towards the LTRO not being a huge 1Tr euro event, more than towards what Bernanke just said, but if today's gyration was over Bernanke's words, that tells me he can crush PM's and oil along with everything else if he cares to, and sounds credible while doing it.
ReplyDeleteSo much for the idea of a hyper-inflationary Armageddon, it's more likely to go the other way if anything. All he must do is tighten and inflationary pressures instantly disappear like magic.
Either event wouldn't fix the problems he's trying to solve, DC needs to get off their duffs and accomplish some good.
I like the last sentence but I think it takes more than Ben's magic word wand to change the picture. There is a difference between the crazy market over-reactions to news for a few minutes and actually solving the problem.
DeleteThe first sign of tightening will crush a lot of stuff except TBT. That isn't going to be pretty and then we are back to the other side of the problem. Higher rates and yields will have a big affect on demand/consumption. Although savers hopefully will get their due.
Here is gold's thesis, it's up to you whether you buy in to it or not, I do.
ReplyDeleteJim’s Formula:
September 1, 2006
1. First interest rates rise affecting the drivers of the US economy, housing, but before that auto production goes from bull to a bear markets.
2. This impacts many other industries and the jobs report. An economy is either rising at a rising rate or business activity is falling at an increasing rate. That is economic law 101. There is no such thing in any market as a Plateau of Prosperity or Cinderella – Goldilocks situations.
3. We have witnessed the Dow rise on economic news indicating deceleration of activity. This continues until major corporations announced poor earnings, making the Dow fall faster than it rose, moving it deeply into the red.
4. The formula economically is inherent in #2 which is lower economic activity equals lower profits.
5. Lower profits leads to lower Federal Tax revenues.
6. Lower Federal tax revenues in the face of increased Federal spending causes geometric, not arithmetic, rises in the US Federal Budget deficit. This is also true for cities & States as it is for the Federal government.
7. The increased US Federal Budget deficit in the face of a US Trade Deficit increases the US Current Account Deficit.
8. The US Current Account Balance is the speedometer of the money exiting the US into world markets (deficit).
9. It is this deficit that must be met by incoming investment in the US in any form. It could be anything from businesses, equities to Treasury instruments. We are already seeing a fall off in the situation of developing nations carrying the spending habits of industrial nations; a contradiction in terms.
10. If the investment by non US entities fails to meet the exiting dollars by all means, then the US must turn within to finance the shortfall.
11. Assuming the US turns inside to finance all maturities, interest rates will rise with the long term rates moving fastest regardless of prevailing business conditions.
12. This will further contract business activity and start a downward spiral of unparalleled dimension because the size of US debt already issued is of unparalleled dimension.
Therefore as you get to #12 you are automatically right back at #1. This is an economic downward spiral.
I heard all this “slow business” as negative to gold talk in the 70s. It was totally wrong then. It will be exactly the same now.
AKA: Stagflation.
DeleteAnyone here over 50 will know this well. It seems to be a feature after protracted wars (other than WWII for obvious reasons).
High interest rates, low growth if any.
What a shock for gold/silver traders today! It's good that I am not one of them -- I am an investor, and today's move is just noise on the long-term chart. :)
ReplyDelete"David, the last 10 years were a bull market in Gold due to the underinvestment in mines in the 1980's and 1990's as the Price of gold dropped to $250 causing a major supply shortage."
ReplyDeleteAs I understand, it is not easy to make new gold discoveries. If it were, the gold supply would have responded by now already...
"If the price of Gold was directly correlated to the US deficit, how would you explain that gold went down through the 80's when their were huge deficits?"
We already went through this several times on this blog. Hopefully my answer will be remembered this time: THE TOTAL DEBT BACK THEN WAS MUCH LOWER THAN IT IS NOW. Research by Rogoff and Reinhart showed that once the total debt rises above 90% of GDP, growth slows down by 1% and keeps slowing as the debt is rising relative to GDP. Here is what John Mauldin wrote about this a couple of weeks ago:
"Kennedy, Reagan, and Bush cut taxes, and the economy grew and more taxes were collected in total within a few years. But we are no longer able to cut marginal income tax rates and borrow to pay the deficit, waiting for growth to happen to make the cuts "pay for themselves." We have simply borrowed too much. We are close to the limit. We must find other options."
"I think extrapolating the last 10 years in gold pricing to a longer term trend is like extrapolating the NASDAQ in 1999 - could be very profitable, but also risky."
The growth in NASDAQ in 1999 collapsed under its own weight. It was a pure bubble. This time, gold will not collapse until the US figures out how to stabilize the growth of debt relative to GDP. So we'll have a clear trigger warning us that the gold trade is over. We are not there yet.
"I really don't see a compelling case that the government deficit is the driver behind the gold price compared to just traditional supply / demand fundamentals."
ReplyDeleteAll right, at lower levels of US Debt/GDP, other drivers might have existed as well. However, with US debt recently rising over 100% of GDP, all the other drivers become unimportant (save for a gold meteorite hitting Earth). Let's not forget this important point: as the value of variables in the world financial/economic system change, NEW forces appear in the system.
Is UNG finally taking off?
ReplyDeleteYesterday, I looked at the 1-year chart of April NG futures, and saw exactly the same pattern as in S&P in September -- a parabolic collapse followed by high-volatility movement sideways. That's a classical bottoming pattern that I talked about back in September. It didn't fail that time, and I suspect it won't fail us with UNG this time as well...
ReplyDeleteAn interesting observation someone made today at Caracommunity:
ReplyDeletehttp://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2012/02/today-is-first-notice-day-for-silver.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+JessesCafeAmericain+%28Jesse%27s+Caf%C3%A9+Am%C3%A9ricain%29
SVM - $7.40 - Well, now back to a full position...
ReplyDeleteToday's bullshit in the gold sector is exactly why I don't trade the sector.
ReplyDeleteSVM looks kinda good. Nice long bottoming pattern. Volatile as a mofo.
ReplyDeleteI bought some more IMMR today at $6.78 and $6.71. Avg is around $6.86. Small position.
Since my buying lately has been bad other than NLS, I figured I would do a little selling of NLS just to see if it holds. So I sold some at $2.78 (5k shs) and it didn't budge. Now I just gotta decide if I should sell more since it's taking the selling well or hold. I'm just not feeling great holding much into this week's jobs numbers but most likely it will be a drop and then buy em up reaction.
That Stockton guy 2nd posted about above has been bearish for a while just FYI. However, deep down I do kinda agree with him and combined with the big hit I took in WFR I'm getting more cautious.
2nd - I think the BS went down yesterday and very early the day before.
ReplyDeleteYep, it's BS, sanity left the building.
AUMN - I had a bead on this one at $7.90ish, but wonder whether it can really go that low...
ReplyDeleteIt's already up 75% off the bottom too, but the Max Pain was $10 last I checked yesterday. I was and still am attracted, but SVM calls me to my grave....
We go up I think, everybody back to your battle stations, nothing to see here.
La, la, la, la, la....
Given the long base SLV made for a month between late Jan and late Feb before launching its latest rally, I think today's drop is just a short-term knockout. So I just bought 5 contracts of April $33 calls on SLV at $2.28.
ReplyDeleteSVM - Oh, and the PNF flipped an hour ago too, from $5.47 to $9.36
ReplyDeleteWhatever that means...
And Max Pain is $8, last month expiration he hit the $7 MP number dead-nutz...
Craig- I notice Landry has recently gotten into trying to catch 'early trend transitions.' Let us know if/when he senses one.
ReplyDelete2nd said, "Today's bullshit in the gold sector is exactly why I don't trade the sector."
ReplyDeleteBullion is down only -4.13%. Is this type of movement really any different than any other equity? This is just the nature of the beast or the playground we run in.
The only way around it is to buy mutual funds or indexes for reduced volatility.
MITK traders must be holding their breath. 10.41 is S2 on the daily and also the rising 20sma. If that breaks we all get another shot @ 9.20ish.
ReplyDeleteXCO +4.4%. WTF am I in the only energy sector WORSE that Natty??? :)
ReplyDeleteI read what you are saying is that Gold has to go up because of issues with the money / inflation. That is incorrect - Gold will only go up if enough people believe that buying gold will protect them and want to buy more than is being produced. If there are more sellers than buyers, anything goes down in price.
ReplyDeleteThe other comment you made David is correct in that it is hard to get new gold out of the ground. Mines are long term, so once you've built one, you keep producing as long as the marginal cost is less than the price of the product you are selling. That is why mine production continued to grow after the price peaked in the 1980's. Similarly, it takes a long time to get new mine production growing which is why it has taken so long to get the Gold supply rising even with much higher prices, but I understand that worldwide gold production is now growing. I'm not sure if it is enough to push the price down (it depends on whether demand is growing faster), but the growth in supply in the early 80's did signal then of that bull market.
All I am trying to say here is be careful, keep your eyes open and don't be too dogmatic that Gold has to continue up. Even ipads will come down in price if Apple produces more of them than people want to purchase at that price.
One of my friends who gets good information said that Gold cycle work is showing/indicating a major correction due in mid March.
DeleteOpen mindedness, flexibility, adaptability, and discipline all good traits when dealing with the market.
At least we are not in OXF
ReplyDeleteOMG. I'll have to see what happened there. But looking at the chart is was a divy/reit/mlp type thing??
DeleteBought some Symetra yesterday (SYA). Another dirt cheap insurance company at 44% of book value, P/E of 7 and just raised their dividend yesterday to give a 2.8% yield.
ReplyDeleteIt is half owned by a Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary and half by White Mountain insurance (both strong companies).
They have a rock solid balance sheet and pretty broad product lines - I think it is so cheap because they provide health insurance coverage which could get hurt by Obamacare, but they feel pretty confident otherwise. Even if this business did get hurt, they would still be a good company to own.
PNF chart - That thing must be updating the targets a day late, or something...
ReplyDeleteV- That's some heavy selling.
ReplyDeleteNice song 2nd, one of my favorite's of all time.
ReplyDeleteof course my computer crashes today. i had to call in all trades. i sold my immr at a loss and sold my nls at $2.72 to $2.78 today (from $2.58 avg). im putting myself in the penalty box after a disastrous two weeks. lopped off about 10% of port and about 35% of my gains for the yr. lesson i learned is to take a loss quicker and yet again to only short term trade stuff. im not a buy and holder. every time i want to do that i take a big hit.
ReplyDeleteGold correction - Looks like it began one day early.
ReplyDelete"I read what you are saying is that Gold has to go up because of issues with the money / inflation. That is incorrect - Gold will only go up if enough people believe that buying gold will protect them and want to buy more than is being produced. If there are more sellers than buyers, anything goes down in price."
ReplyDeleteWe already went through this -- over hundreds years, gold has been going up with some beta relative to inflation. This behavior is not going to change in the past 3 years, so there is no point debating whether it is rational or not. What we need to look at right now is whether or not the long-term inflation prospects that have been driving gold up since 2000 (the US debt/GDP has been increasing monotonically since 2000) are about to change.
As has been shown already, long-term inflation is driving by debt/GDP ratio rising above 90% rather then the central bank policy (which in the long is REQUIRED to debase the currency so as to prevent the debt rising to unacceptable levels, so it totally doesn't matter what they do or say in the short term).
So, once again, we are coming back to the question: have US figured out a way to stabilize its debt/GDP growth? Until they do it, gold will keep going up.
Or, a couple weeks early, that is...
ReplyDeleteSVM - Okay, half off with a penny gain.
I figure those lower targets might still be in play, this shakeout/up prolly isn't over as many will be quite discouraged now.
ReplyDeleteLive to fight another day, kinda thing.
Why does it ALWAYS happen that whenever something seems certain to me (like the pullback in AUMN being over at $9) and I load up on call options to take advantage of that, the opposite always happens???
ReplyDeleteDavid - whenever this happens to me that's my first thought. I have to force myself to remember the good trades that I've made so I can get my thinking out of the gutter. I'm feeling in a rut right now just because of my recent trades going bad but I have to remind myself I'm still up big this year and that some of the trades I made went really well. I like to take a break for at least a couple of days after that happens just to regain my confidence. Like Jesse said earlier this year it's all about confidence.
DeleteI think as humans we're always conditioned to focus on the negatives/fear just because we were conditioned that way. Think about back when people were living in the woods their primary concern was survival (food/water) and probably fear of being attacked. After finding food I don't think humans were sitting back and relishing the food they were eating. They were probably concerned about the next time they would be hungry. Obviously now our lives are a helluva lot easier, but we still have those fear/negative instincts in us. Just remember that you made some great trades in AUMN/SORL etc lately so take the time to remember those ones too.
Having said that, I'm afraid of trading more right now. ha!
Thank you for the encouraging words, TOF!
DeleteDavid, I'm not sure logic applies at all... this looks like a failed breakout to me, which becomes in my mind a waiting game until confidence is regained. ;)
ReplyDeleteI'm quite shocked I didn't lose my a$$ today and quite thankful for all the supporting comments...
Anyone who has ever tried trading knows it's a lot harder then it looks. Most people probably had a rough day unless they were lucky enough to be realy short gold. I certainly feel like I have struggled to make much headway in the last two weeks, just up down and a good down today. I have a few really smart traders who have just about stopped all trading for the last three weeks because its just been too hard.
ReplyDeleteRemember, one day does not make a month or year. It is consistenly doings things right that pays off in the long-term, get that right and we will all do well. And TOF's comment about knowing one's DNA is very important, you are who you are.
When I buy long-term, seldom, the only thing that works for me is to take 15k to 25k bets and then do not look at it or if I do ignore what I see. When I have done this, seldom, in ten years it usually looks good. I think Nat Gas is one of those situtations now.
Anyway, better days are ahead, remember if it was easy everyone would do it. And its alright to do nothing but observe.
Later
The VIX futures were slightly down today and CDX.NA.HY spreads barely rose, so "smart money" does not think that today is the start of a big correction...
ReplyDeletePlaced a buy limit order at $1.00 for 10 more April $7.50 calls on AUMN...
ReplyDeletet3 how the hell are we gonna play this damn natty bro? wprt and clne and lng all have run quite a bit. is it gasfrac? or gaz?
ReplyDeleteTrade of the year:
Deletehttp://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/02/29/trade-of-the-year/
TOF, ECA for Nat Gas would be my play these etf's always seem to have some wrinkle in them.
DeleteTOF - What about XCO, Mark's already in, I think...???
ReplyDeleteCP- Traded it a few times for pocket change. Out right now.
Deletewithout knowing what he said it is obvious that ben was hawkish. Is the helicopter in for repairs? time to short TLT?
ReplyDeleteTele just noticed the GLL trade. kudos. We seem to trade the same vehicles. Hopefully i will pay closer attention.
ReplyDeleteYogi Bear, we do seem to like larger cap size issues. I let GLL go way too soon about half way thru the drop. All in all they smacked me pretty good today.
DeleteTOF, ECA for Nat Gas would be my play these etf's always seem to have some wrinkle in them.
Per tonight's ST:
ReplyDelete6 stocks have now reached $500 billion in mkt cap. Performance after reaching that threshold for the 1st time.
MSFT- 15% loss the following month.
GE- 5% loss
CSCO- 19% loss
INTC- 36% loss
XOM- 5% loss
AAPL?
In every instance, the S+P dropped about 100 points the following month.
Jesse - That was a great observation on the QQQ close outside BB last night, didn't go unheeded.
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteThe way I'm playing Natty is to buy ECA as my large cap, then a bunch of low-cost Canadian junior producers with good leverage and then sit back and wait for them to rise (probably sometime this year!).
2nd,
ReplyDeletehere is an article/chart I really think you should look at.
It's the chart from 1995, the last time before 2012 we had no 1% down days in Jan. / Feb. It was a 34% up year with basically no pullbacks.
Not saying this will happen this year and the second chart they show, from 1964 (the previous time it happened) had a couple of pullback entry points, but it is something to consider.
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-last-time-the-stock-market-started-like-this-we-ended-up-with-an-insane-rally-2012-2
TNA down 9% since Feb. 3rd, so even thought the large caps are having a good month, the small guys we mostly trade here are having a tougher time.
ReplyDeleteAt 11:15 AM ET I bought 200 shares of CF at $186.40. Remembering what happened in Nov/Dec I promptly set a stop. CF traded to a low for the day of 184.75 around 11:30 AM. My stop was set at 184.78 and my fill was 184.77. After making the low CF immediately traded up to the 189 area and then drifted down to close around $186. I was planning on switching my order to a trailing stop around $188.00. They got me.
ReplyDeleteFrom Europe:
ReplyDeleteLTRO 1 saw €935.4 million, while LTRO 2 was at €661 million per bank, with 800 banks participating. The total euros issued was 530 billion euros earning an interest rate of 1%.
From Bernanke (no QE):
"The economy is getting better based on what we can see of the employment numbers but it is not growing at a fast enough clip to justify any immediate change in our accomodative monetary policy. The uptick in hiring has been helped by this policy and any change to it at the present time is not warranted. Real Estate is still a concern. Us fiscal condition is dire and faces a serious challenge at the end of this year. Inflation is not a concern although temporary rises in energy prices bear monitoring".
Trailing stop: VERY good idea, wish I had that option.
ReplyDeleteassuming the natty rally doesn't start this week, I can see where the weather over the next couple of weeks can really help with the final push down for natty. For the most part I have to stay hedged everyday on my positions but I think the boss might be ok with going long in the $2.20's. I think the Hub was around the low 2.40's in cash today. I wasn't looking too close because I was working on some other stuff and buying CF.
ReplyDeleteI did see one daily report where they are bullish natty for the next couple of days due to the cold weather moving across the county but it warms up again early next week.
ReplyDeletecp - sounds like Bernanke doesn't think things are so good to me.
ReplyDeleteIt will be interesting to see the results of these bulk foreclosure sales.
Bernanke must be listening to Achutang, who re-affirmed his recession call recently, saying the coincident indicators have been deteriorating for 4 consecutive months now...
DeleteYes, I have been listening to LA also. It's make or break for him now. Wonder if he is hedged?
DeletePort - Do you think if both you and I turned our central heat full blast and opened all the windows, we could get an upside reversal started?
ReplyDeleteKiddin' of course!
I have my A/C on, that should help.
DeleteYeah, well I guess it's not too terribly surprising to see silver pull back from an RSI(7) of 80, then come slingshot down like a ton of bricks:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p55482735247
Even the weekly chart was gettin' a little on the frothy side, considering the current circumstances, although I'm not really sure the circumstances are really quite all that uncertain on a longer time horizon...
Bernanke/Achutang - Oh I see, so now they want to talk the markets down in order to justify the next round of easy money for banks?
ReplyDeleteThis may very well be so...
DeleteAgreed, but it seems a little over the top.
DeleteLOL, yeah, I sold my GLL today as well.
ReplyDeleteI can imagine they would talk the markets down and distribute government securities into the crowd rushing to safety while they wait until the panic subsides (they will give the signal for this too) to begin buying equities.
ReplyDeleteRB's favorite sector had a little trouble AH...FNSR.
ReplyDeleteTop 40 natural gas producers for Q3 2011
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ngsa.org/Assets/docs/analyses%20studies/top%2040%202011%203rd%20quarter.pdf
Damn port. I know EVERY one of those. Next task...find the highest percentage of gas to liquids.
DeleteLast I saw was XCO/SWN/KWK/HK (sold)/CHK
DeleteTake a look at this, we have to figure out which stocks to include but this is one of my favorite features to use on stockcharts. Once we get it narrowed down, I can at least see what Tudor and Credit Suisse have to say about them.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/CeIT2f9vA
I'm thinking there are some good buyout candidates in there too.
DeleteOn the chart, I just wanted to see the performance over the last few weeks compared to UNG. I should have added SWN.
I'm thinking about shorting WTIC....
ReplyDeleteI keep thinking that if I didn't have any charts to look at, and I just looked at the financial and fundamental data for a particular company, I'd probably buy AAPL.
ReplyDeleteIf anyone has an interest, post your top 3 natty stocks and I'll see what I can find out tomorrow.
ECA, UPL tia Port
DeleteDVN
DeleteECA for me too.
DeleteIf you know the Canadian smallcaps, my favourites which trade in the U.S. are FAIRF and AXLFF
XCO for one, it's way down.
ReplyDeleteAAPL - Yeah, it's definitely a phenomenal chart, and it's really taking off lately. Accelerating, is the word that comes to mind.
ReplyDeleteThe PE still seems reasonable but RSI(7) is pretty high, although it can stay there quite some time before turning down. Moneyflow is shooting up.
"Remember, CAUTION: DANGER AHEAD.
ReplyDeleteSpeech to Institute for Private Investors
By Robert L. Rodriguez, CFA
Managing Partner and CEO
February 15, 2012"
http://caracommunity.com/sites/default/files/caution_danger_0.pdf
Whew!
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/02/29/trade-of-the-year/
ReplyDeleteFrom Hulbert re market timers:
ReplyDeleteThe best are bullish, the worst are not
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-best-are-bullish-the-worst-are-not-2012-03-01?link=MW_story_popular
"Best market timers are bullish" - That makes sense.
ReplyDeleteSGG - Took a hit yesterday, hope David has his stop in in this one...
ReplyDeleteThis is free but I'd pay for it just for the jokes.
ReplyDelete"Got Random Thoughts:
The market tried to rally but came back in to close in the minus
column. This action formed an outside day down. I'm sure the candle
people have an ominous name for this like Fat Sumo With A Loose
Belt Under A Rain Cloud. Whatever you call it, it's not that big of
a deal--just a slightly negative day. Longer-term, the persistent
uptrend remains intact.
Not much has changed. Since the market hasn't really pulled back,
I'm still not seeing a lot of new meaningful setups. So, continue
to manage what you have. Take partial profits as offered, trail
stops higher, and honor your stops just in case. Also, if you do
like a setup, make sure you wait for entries just in case we see a
little more weakness.
Futures are firm pre-market.
Best of luck with your trading today!"
yo mark - i sucked it up and bought a macbook pro so you can't call me a cheapskate anymore.
ReplyDeleteanyone know of a good way to take advantage of the switch to nat gas that is going to take place in our country? i'm thinking from a biz opportunity...
At ah boy. No more crashes for you!
DeleteOne of the features I like are the hot corners. It's fast enough to run xtimes programs on multiple screens.
DeleteI'm going for a cup of joe now, this time you guys make sure PM's don't turn red till I return... OK?
ReplyDeleteBuy a fleet of gas service trucks?
ReplyDeleteAAPL sell signal. Made new monthly high (WAY WAY WAY outside monthly bb) and moved below last month's high.
ReplyDeleteSLW @ 37.91
ReplyDeleteNEW POST!!!!!
ReplyDelete