Bullhead Az? Sheesh, I guess I'll have to look it up, but there are some places in Az I wouldn't mind living and there are others where it's just too damn hot.
I like dry, but not boiling hot with a rock garden in the front yard.
I notice there aren't but a few posts on the GDX board, and none from Friday, must be a buy indicator?
RB - Hey, if the place is paid for, suits your needs, and you plan on living there for eternity, then it shouldn't make much difference assuming the neighborhood doesn't become uninhabitable for some reason.
Like I said, I like parts of AZ., winter here is 6mos of the year you really can't do a whole heck of a lot outside b/c it's either raining, too cold, snowing, sleeting or something along those lines...
These guys in the bay area and San Diego take their weather for granted, trust me. Why JB doesn't like the central valley, I can't figure out, except sometimes there it's pretty hot. But talk about being close to food, come spring the infamous Gilroy tossed salad corner is every hobo's favorite spot.
Man, any of you with kids or grandkids should run out to the cinema today and watch it. I think it's a one-day screening for Earth Day. A Disney Nature feature, and not to be missed! I guarantee you'll enjoy the film more than the kids, and be on the edge of your seat the entire time.
GDX/GDXJ/UNG board - I assumed we were referring to the Yahoo finance message boards where clueless and a few clued souls hang out, it could be the google finance message board, I suppose... ;)
Okay, now I've gotta go read on CC where 2nd gets his ass "kicked" by someone with skinned knuckles who's quest is to play word games and puff his chest....
I should check my trading self into the County Jail. Walk out in a year or two to see CSCO + INTC + GE in the mid-thirties, WFC in the fifties, reinvested dividends in OAKBX taking it to the equivalent of the forties.
2nd, Feel free to delete any further ramblings from me. I am on my forth torpedo and the memories of Bullhead have brought forth a raging sea of emotion:
"Sierra Nevada Torpedo is a big American IPA; bold, assertive, and full of flavor highlighting the complex citrus, pine, and herbal character of whole-cone American hops."
I don't know about the above shit, but i do know it will fuck you up!
They say you can't go home again it is certainly true for me. Here is a video of my prom and how those bastards ruined my dress. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmbJsmQLipU&feature=related
Well, I will say I am an unapologetic Bullheadean. We have a town wide saying to take care of all the naysayers. My whole family and practically the entire town had this printed in large block letters on T-shirts. Basically the De-facto town motto. BULLHEAD IS BETTER THAN NO HEAD! You really can't make stuff up like that.
"David- My prediction is that 2011 will be the year you will wish you had bought the home in Hamilton [think Campbell]. I hope you do."
Is that because you expect inflation to pick up a lot and all assets classes to appreciate considerably? In that case, you have to agree, ECU.TO will appreciate many fold more than a house. We'll check the Case-Shiller housing indices on Tuesday, but I think they will set yet another low, taking us back to mid-2002 (last month's index of condo prices in SF took us to an 8-year low, matching January 2003).
You are still debating as to whether or not you should invest a lot into INTC+GE+CSCO and forget about it for a year. Well, I have already done that with ECU.TO, as I won't sell any of it for a year so as to book a long-term capital gain on it. So talk to me about houses a year from now, when ECU.TO appreciates several fold and I'll be able to buy a house in Campbell for cash. :)
Mark -- let us know the date when you'll be in Milbrae. Maybe 2nd_ave and I will be able to meet you there for drinks or something, if you would like to get away from your family for a couple of hours.
David, Here is an article that gives you things to think about concerning home ownership. All this guys other articles are pretty funny. http://www.jamesaltucher.com/2011/03/why-i-am-never-going-to-own-a-home-again/
David- Thanks. I'll let you know the schedule once it's posted.
You know I'm in 2nd's camp when it comes to the house. Why not hedge you bet and buy it anyway? Can always just pay it off when ECU has it's moon shot!
RB- That must be some magic beer. OK, I'll see if I can find some here. It's appropriate for breakfast, right?
JB, What areas. The town and the town proper is built in a long skinny corridor between 95 and the river. So the area is really a bunch of pockets of little developments with no zoning or funky zoning. Do you know how hot it gets there!
RB - got to watch that Sierra Nevada brew!!! My first year at CSU Chico was their first year, what a great success story.
Been checking at all kinds of places, but I don't know the area at all. Yes, I know that it gets super hot, but it gets really hot here too and the winters here are rough (bad tule fog)
Thanks for the article about (against) housing, Bobbyo -- it was a fun read. :)
Mark, let's be real -- there is absolutely no reason to rush into buying a house NOW, with prices in a downtrend AND with a probable second leg down coming after QE2 ends. Given the huge REO inventory, when the underlying fundamentals do change for the better and will indicate rising housing prices for years to come, the initial growth rate will be minimal, probably less than inflation, since all the REO homes will be unloaded into the historically low demand that we have now, keeping a lid on prices and preventing development of the craze of trying to buy a house NOW.
ECU.TO, on the other hand, is stretched to its extreme like a rubber band, and can snap up any day. To be honest, however, when ECU.TO rises 3X, THEN I will start to really worry about it collapsing back down for whatever reason and that house that I could buy for cash evaporating. But until ECU.TO rises above $3, I won't even consider taking any money out of it.
No one else caught African Cats? It appears to be more than the one-day event I understood it to be (it was the little guy's teacher who recommended it, with the caveat that it would only be screened on Earth Day).
After reading through the latest CC posts, I'm of the opinion most of them are so tied to their viewpoints/predictions that they'll end up missing the entire recovery. But that's normal. Every economic recovery has taken place against the backdrop of Armageddon. IMO, Armageddon came and went 3 years ago. It's water under the bridge. Time to move on.
It's possible to get so wrapped up in the intellectual beauty of arguing a POV that you wouldn't recognize the reality of a contradictory event if it slapped you in the face.
David/Mark- Sure, we would all love to get away from our families for a few hours of hard drinking. That scenario might even entice vb to leave the desert for a few days and join us.
Re: A plea for nothing but happy topics. :) newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5567 comments) on Sat, 04/23/2011 - 20:02 #84473 (in reply to #84445) bobbyo- You got it.
1. Obama. Finally, a good-looking President. 2. Bernanke. Finally, a good-looking Fed Chairman. 3. National debt. I helped to create it, but I don't have to pay it off. 4. Unions. Who says you can't work a lifetime on an assembly line while under the influence? 5. Fiat currency. All I can say is I'm accumulating a ----load of the stuff, and merchants seem to accept it anywhere I go.
Re: A plea for nothing but happy topics. :) Submitted by bobbyo (633 comments) on Sat, 04/23/2011 - 20:14 #84474 (in reply to #84473)
My turn 1. Obama. I love foreigners. 2. Bernanke. Saved the entire world! 3. National debt. Hey at these rates we can consolidate, refinance and have one easy payment. 4. Unions. The bedrock of socialism. Yea! 5. Fiat currency: Stars in many cool Rap videos.
Obama- Only six more shots (years) left. Bernanke- Great to play poker with. National Debt- Our kids can easily cover it. Fiat currency- Since it's worthless, trading loses are only emotional. Unions-....I give up. Pass me a shot.
RAS - Coming back into play? PMI - Potential bottom? I don't see how PMI isn't bk... but how does housing recover without mortgage insurers, FHA to perpetuity? Will FHA insurance loan limits return to pre-stimulus levels as H.R. 3081 (FHA Loan Limits) expires?
Gap Up Rogue Wave newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5568 comments) on Sun, 04/24/2011 - 20:42 #84496 We may see one Monday morning that clears the decks/sends shorts to the life rafts.
WIR-17: Adrift with no rudder? Oh please, I'd be broke now if I'd been listening to BC!
Then I see this, and ask myself, "Are foreign entities trading US markets really immune from taxation?:
"“Sell now” I said and “go to cash, and after C crashes, buy another $100,000 worth, and no matter what happens to it, you cleared a quarter million (it’s tax free in Bahamas)."
Silver and gold, the ratio may move to single digits. Sprott comments:
"when compared to gold, it is silver that offers the most attractive value proposition by virtue of the gross mispricing of its scarcity, which, we might add, has existed for many years."
I wonder if Trump did his DD prior to buying the Kluge winery, last fall and all winter I saw an highly unusual creature, the stink bug, making his presence known around here.
Mike McGrath tells me just a few stinkbugs can ruin several tons of grapes if they make it into the crush...
CTA Trading Desk Morning Report Submitted by ea32da32 (762 comments) on Mon, 04/25/2011 - 09:18 #84514 France and GS; Good morning Bill and welcome back. Over the weekend there was some news that the number of individuals invested in the market was at the lowest point in the past 10 years. To me, this means the target on my back is much larger then it was say in 2007 when there were many more individual investors. My overall attitude is to move my funds toward investing in myself rather then in this market – I’ve cut my exposure to wallstreet 30% so far this year… Best regards, Earl
Re: CTA Trading Desk Morning Report newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5569 comments) on Mon, 04/25/2011 - 09:33 #84517 (in reply to #84514) 'Over the weekend there was some news that the number of individuals invested in the market was at the lowest point in the past 10 years.'
Earl- Let me know if you're able to supply a link to the source of that information. I would take that data, if true, as a positive. A stockpile of fuel on the sidelines able to drive this market much higher.
almost had a heart attack when I saw the delayed silver quote. Just covered my SLV shorts even and sold ZSL -.12. Today could be the day, but its not worth the anxiety. Going back to bed:)
1) Barron's-"In the latest poll, the Bull Ratio (Bulls / (Bulls + Bears)) is tied for the highest reading in the past 12 years. That's not because the managers are especially bullish, but rather because they're the least bearish they've ever been.
A total of 11% of the Big Money respondents considered themselves either "bearish" or "very bearish". That figure is the lowest on record.
2)The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) began a poll of managers' investment stance in 2006. NAAIM generously provides more data than most other surveys, so we can get a more in-depth look than just the headline numbers.
Like the Barron's survey, managers simply don't see the point in being bearish. For the first time in the survey's 5-year history, there have now been four straight weeks where the most bearish investment manager was flat.
Nobody dares to go net short.
At the other end of the spectrum, the most bullish managers have been 200% invested, leveraged 2-to-1 on the long side, for the past three weeks.
That means that the most bullish managers minus the absolute value of the most bearish ones has averaged 190% net long over the past month. Again, the survey's history is short, but we've never seen such a wide differential before. The previous high was 162% almost exactly one year ago, just before the last big correction.
INTC up +1.7% on decent volume newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5570 comments) on Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:40 #84532 CSCO/GE/INTC/WFC holding up well amid the morning sell-off.
jesse- I hear you. The bull/bear numbers do not sound good. For some reason, however, I just think the bulls are about to roll into the bear version of Warsaw and see them surrender without a shot.
Opening EFII @ 17.63/ Playing The Bay Area Rebound newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5571 comments) on Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:58 #84537 CSCO/EFII/INTC/WFC are all LT plays, IMO. Signs of recovery have picked up in the Bay Area:
(a) Home prices on the Peninsula bottomed in late 2010. Open houses in the neighborhood have all seen impressive traffic. The two homes offered by the company a realtor acquaintance works for both closed well above listing prices.
(b) Hiring in Silicon Valley has picked up. In addition to anecdotal evidence via my network of family/friends, here's one of many stories that appeared over the weekend: http://tinyurl.com/3hdhhmh
(c) Consumer spending. Just personal observations. Larger numbers of new cars on the freeways. More crowded freeways. Parking lots that routinely overflowed prior to the 2008 are back to normal. Donations are returning to local schools.
Re: Silver Comex Manipulation Submitted by 2nd_ave (5572 comments) on Mon, 04/25/2011 - 12:07 #84541 (in reply to #84538) Dr. S- 'All in?' Consider at least trading around the position(s). Nothing goes up forever, or in a straight line. I like your CSCO position right now a lot more than your stake in silver.
I decided to increase the level of my hedging against silver collapse, and so I just at a $300 loss the 3 July $43 SLV puts I purchased early last week and instead purchased 10 July $48 puts for $4850 total. Will keep rolling these 10 puts to higher strike prices for every $5 rise in SLV. I expect to lose around $1K on each such roll, but then the true value of my ECU.TO should be rising by at least $10K for each $5 rise in SLV, and so I am OK with losing $1K in order to ultimately see ECU.TO catch up with its true valuation.
I can't believe how expensive these Silver puts are. I am expecting SLV to at least hit $38 on the downside within a month. That is a HUGE loss for such a popular and highly liquid commodity, yet at first glance, I don't see any put position that would yield much more than 100-150%.
If I feel like I have a large edge and I feel like the underlying stock/commodity will move substantially in my favor, I would look for put/call positions with the potential of moving 500-1,000% in my favor. These silver puts are priced SOOOOOO high, that I just don't see anything worth warranting the risk.
This shows me that 1) the price of silver will correct substantially given the absurdity of the put premiums, 2) The big boys know it and have no problem holding their put positions through days like today, and thus 3) there is very little excitement in going to the SLV casino for little guys like me.
Maybe just shorting SLV is the best play. There must be some sort of derivative play out there that will get smashed upon a silver correction. Perhaps an options play somewhere? Does anybody know of anything? It certainly isn't in plays like HL or SLW which are not extended and have gone nowhere. Hmmm.....
jesse- If the 'all-in' posture Dr. S has taken is for real, a sell-off in silver can't be far off. On the other hand, how many players are anticipating the sell-off? That kind of puts a floor until silver prices for now?
If you look at the 3 previous parabolic moves in Dr. S in '04, '06, and '08, you see a monthly close at or right near the high of the month. The following month, you see a quick break slightly ABOVE this level which of course demoralizes the shorts and gets all of the monthly breakout players on board.
The quick false monthly fakeout is followed by a steep reversal the following 2-3 months with most of the losses taking place the first month.
SO.....here's where we stand- as 2nd just said, many players (including myself and many here) anticipating this selloff? So, yes, this puts a floor under silver prices. My guess? silver trades sideways to very slightly higher the rest of the month to squeeze a great deal of the emotion out of this trade. Investors will then set their sites on other "fast money" trades.
We then see a slight 1-3% monthly breakout the first week of May above April's highs. Dr. S then sees a 12-17 point drop the following 3 weeks.
Looking at the 5-day intraday SLV chart, today's volatility definitely stands out. Usually, increased volatility in a flat range after a huge run up is a sign of a top. Or a proximity of a top, since holders are becoming noticeably more nervous.
I think we should all be keeping a close eye on Gold (GLD) and the dollar for topping and bottoming signs to give us a clue about the exact top of silver. As of right now, I don't see an exhaustive move in gold and I think the dollar could trade down to 72. By the way, the dollar sentiment levels are getting VERY VERY low, to levels seen at other long term bottoms. I think we will see a "bull market" start taking place in the dollar sometime during the next month. And yes, I know this is IMPOSSIBLE...that's exactly why it will happen:)
GNK very interesting play. I've been looking at the bulk carriers for the past couple of hours. I guarantee that the BDI will double at some point this summer. The BDI/S+P 500 ratio is currently at a level only seen 2 times since 2002. Each time, the BDI increased 400-500% within the next year.
I've been looking all day at every single dry bulk stock out there and I just don't see any that are screaming multi-bag. GNK could be good for a quick 50%. TBSI is interesting but the volume is pathetic.
I'm waiting for a possible $5 entry for MITK. I started thinking this morning about my use of checks. 1.5-2 years ago, I wrote about 7 checks per month. Earlier this year, that number was down to 1. It is now zero. Everything is now direct deposit, credit card, paypal etc.. And I am WAY behind the curve on technology.
Employers and the IRS now do direct deposit and the government wants all transactions done electronically so big brother can watch out for our best interests:)
So, let's hypothetically say that the use of checks goes virtually to zero over the next 10 years and people send money via the click of a mouse for the most part and thus do not have to take a picture of a physical check. Does MITK have other long term drivers of growth in addition to their check technology?
I have done zero research on the stock. I'm just looking to see if it would have legs over the longer term. TIA
WNR - Refiners - I discovered an interesting perspective this weekend, the theory was that gasoline producers (presumably those with WTIC feedstock input?) make out on the spread between WTIC and Baltic. The greater the spread, the more cash coming in their doors.
Perhaps this is what I didn't get as refiners were circling the bowl along with crude and all seemingly took off together.
Jesse, why do you keep looking at long-term charts of UNG? Because of monthly roll-overs, UNG now is not the same as it was one month ago, and one month ago it was not the same as it was two months ago. I mentioned it many times here, so what is your reason for still looking at long-term UNG charts?
Jesse- I hear you. I'm the same way. Never even use cash, just a CC. But my wife writes tons of checks and my business 'always' will. She'd love mobile deposit!
Either way, $5 would be a sweat entry...But I hope you don't get it of course :)
Re: Opening EFII @ 17.63/ Bidding up +6% after hours newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5573 comments) on Mon, 04/25/2011 - 16:22 #84567 (in reply to #84537) Strong earnings/revenue growth.
Jesse - I hear ya about checks dying out over time...no doubt. But the industry is still huge. Just google the number of checks written annually...think about things like weddings gifts, birthday presents, graduation presents, refund checks, checks written for household handyman services, not to mention checks written between businesses...The industry is still huge. The research that I found through Google searches stated that the check writing industry is shrinking by about 2-3% annually.
MITK completely owns this industry and while maybe 10 years from now only 50% of the checks written today will be written, think about the size of this market for a company that only has a $100 Million market cap. They generate 85% margins on every check and make $0.15 per check deposited or $1-$2 per mobile subscriber (its up to the bank to choose which model they prefer). I ran the numbers on the CC blog a week or so ago and came to the mobile check deposit market could be about 1 Billion checks annually, which would equate to about $150 Million revenue target market. MITK completely owns this market but assuming they only get 50% of the market, you can see why it could be worth $30-$50 in a year or two.
Also, this is really a technology company. Their technology works with bill paying (just take a picture of a bill, enter in the amount that you owe, and send a payment) and insurance forms...really anything that deals with grabbing data from paperwork. They signed a deal with Chase (and probably others) for additonal services beyond check deposit and I'm assuming these banks / insurance companies / etc will be able aiming at offering a whole suite of services to mobile banking users.
Have you folks seen today's net change in July SLV puts? Puts with strike prices above $48 have gone down (because SLV was up today), but puts with strike prices below $48 have gone UP, DESPITE SLV being up today! This means that the perception of an abrupt decline in SLV has increased markedly today.
David- I definitely am very aware that you have mentioned the UNG-Natty disconnect on several occasions.
For me, UNG is a great picture of natural gas psychology taking into account the capital investors have lost during these roll overs during contango. UNG tested the 2 year trendline almost to the penny on 6 distinct occasions during this time frame and promptly traded towards the lower trendline. As a "trading vehicle", UNG has been much more predictable than the commodity itself.
When you see any stock,etf, or whatever face VERY STIFF resistance on 6 different occasions and fail miserably in each attempt and THEN suddenly break through that resistance while nobody is looking...I take notice.
Contango is not a factor heading out till December, so if UNG decides to shine, now is its time.
In terms of the "100 years of supply" argument, commodities the world over during the past few hundred years have traded wildly up 1,000%, down 90%, etc. etc. etc. all while having hundreds of years of supply of that particular commodity in the ground. The market just boils down to psychology and money flow. Like we saw last year, we can have natural gas tankers being given away if you open up a free checking account and still see natural gas rally 120% off its lows due to sentiment and money flow alone.
I try to throw all logic and pre-existing beliefs out the door and simply rely on chart patterns when investing. In this light, UNG is acting unlike it has in the past which leads me to believe something may be afoot. Will anything big happen? Who knows? We'll see how the chart progresses.
In terms of the commodity itself? Natural gas is forming a HUGE inverted head and shoulders patter. Shoulder #1- 4/10 at $4, Head- 9/10 at $3.50, and Shoulder #2 3/11 at $3.75. This pattern would project to $8 or $9 for natty in short order. We are also seeing distinct positive divergence on the percentage price oscillators (PPO), MACD etc. The 200 day moving average has also flattened out for the first time in 4 years (which I always want to see before any big sustainable thrust higher).
The volume in ZSL has been steadily increasing every day since min-April, and today the volume was just off the chart, just like the volume in SLV. Isn't it true that large volume on a flat price day after a huge rally is a very good indicator of a top?
Yes, today looks like a textbook top for silver. In fact, exactly like I had it playing out in my mind a few sessions ago. Unfortunately, I think there may be way too many people who also see this obvious topping pattern, which of course would negate its significance.
With the whole world watching, I have to assume that silver will bore us to death before it makes its plunge. Actually, the chart looks very similar to April of '06 (the only other instance 68%+ above the 200 day) where it had a blowoff top, corrected 25% in a week or so, then headed from $11 and change to $15.21 over the next couple of weeks before ultimately moving from $15.21 to $9.48 the next month.
Jesse, it would be reasonable to expect SLV to "bore" us with a flat price action for a while if only investor psychology was in play. However, we can't ignore "real" causes for a possible reversal in SLV:
"CME circulates notice of raising margin requirements on silver, effective after the close of trading on Tues, 4/26
This is an interesting self-moderating feedback cycle: as the price of a commodity rises, the risk for long positions increases greatly, and hence CME rises the margin requirements so as to make sure that no speculators end up fully wiped out. However, this rise in the margin requirements ITSELF places a lot of stress on the speculators and if they are already nervous and are looking for a reason to sell, such a rise can cause an avalanche of selling and an abrupt end to the up trend.
Live gold chart just had an evil spike down, breaking below the morning's low. Silver also had a spike down, but it stopped short at the morning's low for now. I suspect that in a short order (in a few hours), silver will start leading gold to the downside. Overall, it looks like my large SLV put purchase today was very timely... If I can't make any money on ECU.TO, at least I'll make some on my SLV puts, and THEN, in 2012, ECU.TO will surely join the party. So maybe this is actually the best scenario for my port, making money BOTH on SLV puts and ECU.TO. :)
Bullhead Az? Sheesh, I guess I'll have to look it up, but there are some places in Az I wouldn't mind living and there are others where it's just too damn hot.
ReplyDeleteI like dry, but not boiling hot with a rock garden in the front yard.
I notice there aren't but a few posts on the GDX board, and none from Friday, must be a buy indicator?
YES!!!
ReplyDeleteI'll show that one to Kendra and see if she changes her mind ;)
Sharkies for the clincher tomorrow night!!
2nd- That doesn't apply to the S.S. right?
ReplyDeleteWhen you guys talk about the 'GDX, UNG board' etc. what are you referring to?
ReplyDeleteRB - Hey, if the place is paid for, suits your needs, and you plan on living there for eternity, then it shouldn't make much difference assuming the neighborhood doesn't become uninhabitable for some reason.
ReplyDeleteLike I said, I like parts of AZ., winter here is 6mos of the year you really can't do a whole heck of a lot outside b/c it's either raining, too cold, snowing, sleeting or something along those lines...
These guys in the bay area and San Diego take their weather for granted, trust me. Why JB doesn't like the central valley, I can't figure out, except sometimes there it's pretty hot. But talk about being close to food, come spring the infamous Gilroy tossed salad corner is every hobo's favorite spot.
African Cats-
ReplyDeleteMan, any of you with kids or grandkids should run out to the cinema today and watch it. I think it's a one-day screening for Earth Day. A Disney Nature feature, and not to be missed! I guarantee you'll enjoy the film more than the kids, and be on the edge of your seat the entire time.
GDX/GDXJ/UNG board - I assumed we were referring to the Yahoo finance message boards where clueless and a few clued souls hang out, it could be the google finance message board, I suppose... ;)
ReplyDeleteOkay, now I've gotta go read on CC where 2nd gets his ass "kicked" by someone with skinned knuckles who's quest is to play word games and puff his chest....
ReplyDeleteCP- Don't bother. We're referring to events from October 2009.
ReplyDeleteAfrican Cats: I met one in O'Malley's alley one late night, the air was thick with cat calls. Tommy the cat was his name, I say unto thee!
ReplyDeleteI wasn't quite sure what CP was trying to say until I tossed back my first shot glass of Nadurra. Now I know exactly what he means.
ReplyDeleteOct '09 - That must've been some kinda ass kickin' to justify such stalking effort... ;)
ReplyDeleteI should check my trading self into the County Jail. Walk out in a year or two to see CSCO + INTC + GE in the mid-thirties, WFC in the fifties, reinvested dividends in OAKBX taking it to the equivalent of the forties.
ReplyDeleteTo be honest, I don't get the stalking. All I ever post are opinions. And I'm wrong half the time. A few drunken rants now and then.
ReplyDeleteBullhead AZ? rb's already in Anon Hell.
ReplyDeleteDavid- My prediction is that 2011 will be the year you will wish you had bought the home in Hamilton. I hope you do.
ReplyDeleteWhere's Hamilton?. Never heard of it.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone stalked ever get it? Doubt it. But the little bugger is persistent.
Hamilton Beach, the place where blenders and toasters wash ashore?
ReplyDeleteBullhead City? I am being stalked. My parents live there and i graduated high school there. Of coarse only the rich people have a triple wides.
ReplyDeleteCP :)
ReplyDeleteTOF- They must target those mobile check adds to sporting events. No way the ratio I see can be across the board.
ReplyDelete2nd, Feel free to delete any further ramblings from me. I am on my forth torpedo and the memories of Bullhead have brought forth a raging sea of emotion:
ReplyDelete"Sierra Nevada Torpedo is a big American IPA; bold, assertive, and full of flavor highlighting the complex citrus, pine, and herbal character of whole-cone American hops."
I don't know about the above shit, but i do know it will fuck you up!
They say you can't go home again it is certainly true for me. Here is a video of my prom and how those bastards ruined my dress.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmbJsmQLipU&feature=related
Sorry, Mark (and David, of course)- I meant Campbell, but was thinking of Hamilton Avenue.
ReplyDeleteFour Torpedos? Damn, rb- you know that's the equivalent of a 12-pack of Bud Lights.
ReplyDeleteNo worries, though. I delete your ramblings all the time.
ReplyDeleteRB- Friggin A...I knew it was Carrie before I clicked on it!
ReplyDeleteSure, Mark. Sick minds think alike ;)
ReplyDelete2nd/David- We will be in Milbrae in a couple of weeks for a soccer toury. Team parents can't bring a cooler full of beer, but spectators can.
ReplyDeleteRB would...just saying.
Well, I will say I am an unapologetic Bullheadean. We have a town wide saying to take care of all the naysayers. My whole family and practically the entire town had this printed in large block letters on T-shirts. Basically the De-facto town motto.
ReplyDeleteBULLHEAD IS BETTER THAN NO HEAD!
You really can't make stuff up like that.
Team parents, unless they're coaching, are spectators. That would be my reasoning.
ReplyDeleteI'll make up a few T-shirt slogans.
ReplyDeleteBullhead Dead Ahead.
I'm Bullheaded.
Bullhead's Head Bull.
Can't Bullshit a Bullheader.
"David- My prediction is that 2011 will be the year you will wish you had bought the home in Hamilton [think Campbell]. I hope you do."
ReplyDeleteIs that because you expect inflation to pick up a lot and all assets classes to appreciate considerably? In that case, you have to agree, ECU.TO will appreciate many fold more than a house. We'll check the Case-Shiller housing indices on Tuesday, but I think they will set yet another low, taking us back to mid-2002 (last month's index of condo prices in SF took us to an 8-year low, matching January 2003).
You are still debating as to whether or not you should invest a lot into INTC+GE+CSCO and forget about it for a year. Well, I have already done that with ECU.TO, as I won't sell any of it for a year so as to book a long-term capital gain on it. So talk to me about houses a year from now, when ECU.TO appreciates several fold and I'll be able to buy a house in Campbell for cash. :)
Mark -- let us know the date when you'll be in Milbrae. Maybe 2nd_ave and I will be able to meet you there for drinks or something, if you would like to get away from your family for a couple of hours.
ReplyDeleteDavid,
ReplyDeleteHere is an article that gives you things to think about concerning home ownership. All this guys other articles are pretty funny.
http://www.jamesaltucher.com/2011/03/why-i-am-never-going-to-own-a-home-again/
RB - been looking at a number of properties, on line, in the Bullhead City area. Any suggestions?
ReplyDeleteLEXG - Quite the moon-shot
ReplyDeleteDavid- Thanks. I'll let you know the schedule once it's posted.
ReplyDeleteYou know I'm in 2nd's camp when it comes to the house. Why not hedge you bet and buy it anyway? Can always just pay it off when ECU has it's moon shot!
RB- That must be some magic beer. OK, I'll see if I can find some here. It's appropriate for breakfast, right?
Me no feel so good. Now I know why they call it torpedo.
ReplyDeleteJB, What areas. The town and the town proper is built in a long skinny corridor between 95 and the river. So the area is really a bunch of pockets of little developments with no zoning or funky zoning. Do you know how hot it gets there!
ReplyDeleteRB - got to watch that Sierra Nevada brew!!! My first year at CSU Chico was their first year, what a great success story.
ReplyDeleteBeen checking at all kinds of places, but I don't know the area at all. Yes, I know that it gets super hot, but it gets really hot here too and the winters here are rough (bad tule fog)
RB- Snap to you wimp! Go for a run/ride and get back into the saddle. WTH is the matter with you?!
ReplyDeleteJB- What's a good brand for a odometer for my Mt. bike? Mine crapped out on a ride this am.
Mark - I like cateye:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.coloradocyclist.com/
Thanks for the article about (against) housing, Bobbyo -- it was a fun read. :)
ReplyDeleteMark, let's be real -- there is absolutely no reason to rush into buying a house NOW, with prices in a downtrend AND with a probable second leg down coming after QE2 ends. Given the huge REO inventory, when the underlying fundamentals do change for the better and will indicate rising housing prices for years to come, the initial growth rate will be minimal, probably less than inflation, since all the REO homes will be unloaded into the historically low demand that we have now, keeping a lid on prices and preventing development of the craze of trying to buy a house NOW.
ECU.TO, on the other hand, is stretched to its extreme like a rubber band, and can snap up any day. To be honest, however, when ECU.TO rises 3X, THEN I will start to really worry about it collapsing back down for whatever reason and that house that I could buy for cash evaporating. But until ECU.TO rises above $3, I won't even consider taking any money out of it.
Anon- You're carrying serious baggage, my man. Life would be far more enjoyable without it.
ReplyDeleteNo one else caught African Cats? It appears to be more than the one-day event I understood it to be (it was the little guy's teacher who recommended it, with the caveat that it would only be screened on Earth Day).
ReplyDeleteAfter reading through the latest CC posts, I'm of the opinion most of them are so tied to their viewpoints/predictions that they'll end up missing the entire recovery. But that's normal. Every economic recovery has taken place against the backdrop of Armageddon. IMO, Armageddon came and went 3 years ago. It's water under the bridge. Time to move on.
ReplyDeleteIt's possible to get so wrapped up in the intellectual beauty of arguing a POV that you wouldn't recognize the reality of a contradictory event if it slapped you in the face.
ReplyDeleteDavid/Mark- Sure, we would all love to get away from our families for a few hours of hard drinking. That scenario might even entice vb to leave the desert for a few days and join us.
ReplyDeleteRe: A plea for nothing but happy topics. :) newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5567 comments) on Sat, 04/23/2011 - 20:02 #84473 (in reply to #84445)
ReplyDeletebobbyo- You got it.
1. Obama. Finally, a good-looking President.
2. Bernanke. Finally, a good-looking Fed Chairman.
3. National debt. I helped to create it, but I don't have to pay it off.
4. Unions. Who says you can't work a lifetime on an assembly line while under the influence?
5. Fiat currency. All I can say is I'm accumulating a ----load of the stuff, and merchants seem to accept it anywhere I go.
Re: A plea for nothing but happy topics. :)
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by bobbyo (633 comments) on Sat, 04/23/2011 - 20:14 #84474 (in reply to #84473)
My turn
1. Obama. I love foreigners.
2. Bernanke. Saved the entire world!
3. National debt. Hey at these rates we can consolidate,
refinance and have one easy payment.
4. Unions. The bedrock of socialism. Yea!
5. Fiat currency: Stars in many cool Rap videos.
Yea! drinking games!!
ReplyDeleteObama- Only six more shots (years) left.
Bernanke- Great to play poker with.
National Debt- Our kids can easily cover it.
Fiat currency- Since it's worthless, trading loses are only emotional.
Unions-....I give up. Pass me a shot.
RAS - Coming back into play?
ReplyDeletePMI - Potential bottom? I don't see how PMI isn't bk... but how does housing recover without mortgage insurers, FHA to perpetuity? Will FHA insurance loan limits return to pre-stimulus levels as H.R. 3081 (FHA Loan Limits) expires?
Or will Congress extend the FHA limit once again?
"Obama pumps renewable energy"...
ReplyDeleteNuclear is such a hazardous technology, but aside from coal it's the only one that comes close to meeting the power requirements.
Tables are open.
ReplyDeleteCan the bulls muster a +200 point gap up in the DJIA?
ReplyDeleteGap Up Rogue Wave newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5568 comments) on Sun, 04/24/2011 - 20:42 #84496
ReplyDeleteWe may see one Monday morning that clears the decks/sends shorts to the life rafts.
3.88%? Yikes. Looks like I'm going to get run over tomorrow...But we'll see :)
ReplyDeleteWhat does the 3.88% refer to?
ReplyDeleteWIR-17: Adrift with no rudder? Oh please, I'd be broke now if I'd been listening to BC!
ReplyDeleteThen I see this, and ask myself, "Are foreign entities trading US markets really immune from taxation?:
"“Sell now” I said and “go to cash, and after C crashes, buy another $100,000 worth, and no matter what happens to it, you cleared a quarter million (it’s tax free in Bahamas)."
I could really use a "refreshment" holiday....
Silver Bullet baby!
ReplyDeleteSilver and gold, the ratio may move to single digits. Sprott comments:
ReplyDelete"when compared to gold, it is silver that offers the most attractive value proposition by virtue of the gross mispricing of its scarcity, which, we might add, has existed for many years."
http://www.sprott.com/Docs/MarketsataGlance/2011/0311%20Follow%20the%20Money.pdf
This picture is especially for you San Fran folks. Beautiful.
ReplyDeletehttp://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/04/pictures/110422-earth-day-2011-earth-day-google-doodle-satellite-from-space-pictures-nasa-astronauts/?now=2011-04-22-00:01#/earth-day-pictures-planet-from-space-san-francisco-california_35003_600x450.jpg
I wonder if Trump did his DD prior to buying the Kluge winery, last fall and all winter I saw an highly unusual creature, the stink bug, making his presence known around here.
ReplyDeleteMike McGrath tells me just a few stinkbugs can ruin several tons of grapes if they make it into the crush...
CTA Trading Desk Morning Report
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by ea32da32 (762 comments) on Mon, 04/25/2011 - 09:18 #84514
France and GS;
Good morning Bill and welcome back. Over the weekend there was some news that the number of individuals invested in the market was at the lowest point in the past 10 years. To me, this means the target on my back is much larger then it was say in 2007 when there were many more individual investors. My overall attitude is to move my funds toward investing in myself rather then in this market – I’ve cut my exposure to wallstreet 30% so far this year…
Best regards,
Earl
Re: CTA Trading Desk Morning Report newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5569 comments) on Mon, 04/25/2011 - 09:33 #84517 (in reply to #84514)
ReplyDelete'Over the weekend there was some news that the number of individuals invested in the market was at the lowest point in the past 10 years.'
Earl- Let me know if you're able to supply a link to the source of that information. I would take that data, if true, as a positive. A stockpile of fuel on the sidelines able to drive this market much higher.
Wonder why BAC is working?
ReplyDeleteRotation into large cap value- go back and review the market forecast!
ReplyDeleteYeah, but it's killing the rest of the finanacials.
ReplyDeleteCSCO/GE/INTC/WFC all catching bids.
ReplyDeletealmost had a heart attack when I saw the delayed silver quote. Just covered my SLV shorts even and sold ZSL -.12. Today could be the day, but its not worth the anxiety. Going back to bed:)
ReplyDeletePretty sharp correction in crude.
ReplyDeleteUh Oh..:(
ReplyDelete1) Barron's-"In the latest poll, the Bull Ratio (Bulls / (Bulls + Bears)) is tied for the highest reading in the past 12 years. That's not because the managers are especially bullish, but rather because they're the least bearish they've ever been.
A total of 11% of the Big Money respondents considered themselves either "bearish" or "very bearish". That figure is the lowest on record.
2)The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) began a poll of managers' investment stance in 2006. NAAIM generously provides more data than most other surveys, so we can get a more in-depth look than just the headline numbers.
Like the Barron's survey, managers simply don't see the point in being bearish. For the first time in the survey's 5-year history, there have now been four straight weeks where the most bearish investment manager was flat.
Nobody dares to go net short.
At the other end of the spectrum, the most bullish managers have been 200% invested, leveraged 2-to-1 on the long side, for the past three weeks.
That means that the most bullish managers minus the absolute value of the most bearish ones has averaged 190% net long over the past month. Again, the survey's history is short, but we've never seen such a wide differential before. The previous high was 162% almost exactly one year ago, just before the last big correction.
Copper - Down -2.5%, ouch! Is GS attempting to disrupt Glencore's IPO?
ReplyDeleteINTC up +1.7% on decent volume newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5570 comments) on Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:40 #84532
ReplyDeleteCSCO/GE/INTC/WFC holding up well amid the morning sell-off.
jesse- I hear you. The bull/bear numbers do not sound good. For some reason, however, I just think the bulls are about to roll into the bear version of Warsaw and see them surrender without a shot.
ReplyDeleteGDX/GDXJ both below S2. SLW testing S2 again here. I'll hold my ZSL.
ReplyDeleteGL boyz...
Some earnings disappointments this morning...
ReplyDeleteCSCO back above 17.
ReplyDeleteSeems like CSCO has to struggle for every penny going up.
ReplyDeleteOpening EFII @ 17.63/ Playing The Bay Area Rebound newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5571 comments) on Mon, 04/25/2011 - 11:58 #84537
ReplyDeleteCSCO/EFII/INTC/WFC are all LT plays, IMO. Signs of recovery have picked up in the Bay Area:
(a) Home prices on the Peninsula bottomed in late 2010. Open houses in the neighborhood have all seen impressive traffic. The two homes offered by the company a realtor acquaintance works for both closed well above listing prices.
(b) Hiring in Silicon Valley has picked up. In addition to anecdotal evidence via my network of family/friends, here's one of many stories that appeared over the weekend: http://tinyurl.com/3hdhhmh
(c) Consumer spending. Just personal observations. Larger numbers of new cars on the freeways. More crowded freeways. Parking lots that routinely overflowed prior to the 2008 are back to normal. Donations are returning to local schools.
I see I missed some trash talking over the weekend. Hey at least there's some passion on these boards!
ReplyDeleteI see my MITK is down 4% today back to just above my entry on paltry volume. The more I read about this company the more excited I get.
illini- That's because you're watching every +0.01 move ;)
ReplyDeleteSLV/SLW- Man, the metals/miners play is over. Move on to the next act.
ReplyDeleteRe: Silver Comex Manipulation
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5572 comments) on Mon, 04/25/2011 - 12:07 #84541 (in reply to #84538)
Dr. S- 'All in?' Consider at least trading around the position(s). Nothing goes up forever, or in a straight line. I like your CSCO position right now a lot more than your stake in silver.
I decided to increase the level of my hedging against silver collapse, and so I just at a $300 loss the 3 July $43 SLV puts I purchased early last week and instead purchased 10 July $48 puts for $4850 total. Will keep rolling these 10 puts to higher strike prices for every $5 rise in SLV. I expect to lose around $1K on each such roll, but then the true value of my ECU.TO should be rising by at least $10K for each $5 rise in SLV, and so I am OK with losing $1K in order to ultimately see ECU.TO catch up with its true valuation.
ReplyDeleteI can't believe how expensive these Silver puts are. I am expecting SLV to at least hit $38 on the downside within a month. That is a HUGE loss for such a popular and highly liquid commodity, yet at first glance, I don't see any put position that would yield much more than 100-150%.
ReplyDeleteIf I feel like I have a large edge and I feel like the underlying stock/commodity will move substantially in my favor, I would look for put/call positions with the potential of moving 500-1,000% in my favor. These silver puts are priced SOOOOOO high, that I just don't see anything worth warranting the risk.
This shows me that 1) the price of silver will correct substantially given the absurdity of the put premiums, 2) The big boys know it and have no problem holding their put positions through days like today, and thus 3) there is very little excitement in going to the SLV casino for little guys like me.
Maybe just shorting SLV is the best play. There must be some sort of derivative play out there that will get smashed upon a silver correction. Perhaps an options play somewhere? Does anybody know of anything? It certainly isn't in plays like HL or SLW which are not extended and have gone nowhere. Hmmm.....
illini- There's your multi-penny move in CSCO.
ReplyDeletejesse- If the 'all-in' posture Dr. S has taken is for real, a sell-off in silver can't be far off. On the other hand, how many players are anticipating the sell-off? That kind of puts a floor until silver prices for now?
ReplyDeleteAdded my final shares of MITK @ 5.50.
ReplyDeleteIf you look at the 3 previous parabolic moves in Dr. S in '04, '06, and '08, you see a monthly close at or right near the high of the month. The following month, you see a quick break slightly ABOVE this level which of course demoralizes the shorts and gets all of the monthly breakout players on board.
ReplyDeleteThe quick false monthly fakeout is followed by a steep reversal the following 2-3 months with most of the losses taking place the first month.
SO.....here's where we stand- as 2nd just said, many players (including myself and many here) anticipating this selloff? So, yes, this puts a floor under silver prices. My guess? silver trades sideways to very slightly higher the rest of the month to squeeze a great deal of the emotion out of this trade. Investors will then set their sites on other "fast money" trades.
We then see a slight 1-3% monthly breakout the first week of May above April's highs. Dr. S then sees a 12-17 point drop the following 3 weeks.
ZSL - Should be good if you think silver is near exhausted?
ReplyDeleteI'll let the floor close on crude decide the fate of ZSL.
ReplyDeleteLooking at the 5-day intraday SLV chart, today's volatility definitely stands out. Usually, increased volatility in a flat range after a huge run up is a sign of a top. Or a proximity of a top, since holders are becoming noticeably more nervous.
ReplyDeleteI think we should all be keeping a close eye on Gold (GLD) and the dollar for topping and bottoming signs to give us a clue about the exact top of silver. As of right now, I don't see an exhaustive move in gold and I think the dollar could trade down to 72. By the way, the dollar sentiment levels are getting VERY VERY low, to levels seen at other long term bottoms. I think we will see a "bull market" start taking place in the dollar sometime during the next month. And yes, I know this is IMPOSSIBLE...that's exactly why it will happen:)
ReplyDeleteGNK - ?
ReplyDeleteU$D bull impossible? It's exactly what PM shorts are counting on, isn't it?
ReplyDeleteGNK- Yeah, I looked at that one a few days ago. Chart play only?
ReplyDeleteMan, every time I watch SLV and it moves up a few pennies the ask jumps up to about 100K shares.
ReplyDeleteGNK - Yep, based on chart b/c bk seems imminent...
ReplyDeleteGod I hate entertaining the thought of bk plays.
GNK very interesting play. I've been looking at the bulk carriers for the past couple of hours. I guarantee that the BDI will double at some point this summer. The BDI/S+P 500 ratio is currently at a level only seen 2 times since 2002. Each time, the BDI increased 400-500% within the next year.
ReplyDeleteI've been looking all day at every single dry bulk stock out there and I just don't see any that are screaming multi-bag. GNK could be good for a quick 50%. TBSI is interesting but the volume is pathetic.
Team/Mark-
ReplyDeleteI'm waiting for a possible $5 entry for MITK. I started thinking this morning about my use of checks. 1.5-2 years ago, I wrote about 7 checks per month. Earlier this year, that number was down to 1. It is now zero. Everything is now direct deposit, credit card, paypal etc.. And I am WAY behind the curve on technology.
Employers and the IRS now do direct deposit and the government wants all transactions done electronically so big brother can watch out for our best interests:)
So, let's hypothetically say that the use of checks goes virtually to zero over the next 10 years and people send money via the click of a mouse for the most part and thus do not have to take a picture of a physical check. Does MITK have other long term drivers of growth in addition to their check technology?
I have done zero research on the stock. I'm just looking to see if it would have legs over the longer term. TIA
WNR - Refiners - I discovered an interesting perspective this weekend, the theory was that gasoline producers (presumably those with WTIC feedstock input?) make out on the spread between WTIC and Baltic. The greater the spread, the more cash coming in their doors.
ReplyDeletePerhaps this is what I didn't get as refiners were circling the bowl along with crude and all seemingly took off together.
Baltic - I meant BRENT, of course.
ReplyDeleteGPL - Profit taking, I presume. Looks like patience and anxiety divergence.
ReplyDeleteUNG vs. SLV Yahoo message board tally for today:
ReplyDeleteSLV posts....2,480
UNG posts.......5 (7 advertisements)
UNG 2 year trendline - $11.36. Today's low $11.37
Jesse, why do you keep looking at long-term charts of UNG? Because of monthly roll-overs, UNG now is not the same as it was one month ago, and one month ago it was not the same as it was two months ago. I mentioned it many times here, so what is your reason for still looking at long-term UNG charts?
ReplyDeleteJesse- I hear you. I'm the same way. Never even use cash, just a CC. But my wife writes tons of checks and my business 'always' will. She'd love mobile deposit!
ReplyDeleteEither way, $5 would be a sweat entry...But I hope you don't get it of course :)
ZSL ends the day in the green for me.
Re: Opening EFII @ 17.63/ Bidding up +6% after hours newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5573 comments) on Mon, 04/25/2011 - 16:22 #84567 (in reply to #84537)
ReplyDeleteStrong earnings/revenue growth.
Check that. I can't tell where it's trading. +6% briefly, now unclear. In any case, I have no problems with the results they're reporting.
ReplyDeleteJesse - I hear ya about checks dying out over time...no doubt. But the industry is still huge. Just google the number of checks written annually...think about things like weddings gifts, birthday presents, graduation presents, refund checks, checks written for household handyman services, not to mention checks written between businesses...The industry is still huge. The research that I found through Google searches stated that the check writing industry is shrinking by about 2-3% annually.
ReplyDeleteMITK completely owns this industry and while maybe 10 years from now only 50% of the checks written today will be written, think about the size of this market for a company that only has a $100 Million market cap. They generate 85% margins on every check and make $0.15 per check deposited or $1-$2 per mobile subscriber (its up to the bank to choose which model they prefer). I ran the numbers on the CC blog a week or so ago and came to the mobile check deposit market could be about 1 Billion checks annually, which would equate to about $150 Million revenue target market. MITK completely owns this market but assuming they only get 50% of the market, you can see why it could be worth $30-$50 in a year or two.
Also, this is really a technology company. Their technology works with bill paying (just take a picture of a bill, enter in the amount that you owe, and send a payment) and insurance forms...really anything that deals with grabbing data from paperwork. They signed a deal with Chase (and probably others) for additonal services beyond check deposit and I'm assuming these banks / insurance companies / etc will be able aiming at offering a whole suite of services to mobile banking users.
Have you folks seen today's net change in July SLV puts? Puts with strike prices above $48 have gone down (because SLV was up today), but puts with strike prices below $48 have gone UP, DESPITE SLV being up today! This means that the perception of an abrupt decline in SLV has increased markedly today.
ReplyDeleteDavid- I definitely am very aware that you have mentioned the UNG-Natty disconnect on several occasions.
ReplyDeleteFor me, UNG is a great picture of natural gas psychology taking into account the capital investors have lost during these roll overs during contango. UNG tested the 2 year trendline almost to the penny on 6 distinct occasions during this time frame and promptly traded towards the lower trendline. As a "trading vehicle", UNG has been much more predictable than the commodity itself.
When you see any stock,etf, or whatever face VERY STIFF resistance on 6 different occasions and fail miserably in each attempt and THEN suddenly break through that resistance while nobody is looking...I take notice.
Contango is not a factor heading out till December, so if UNG decides to shine, now is its time.
In terms of the "100 years of supply" argument, commodities the world over during the past few hundred years have traded wildly up 1,000%, down 90%, etc. etc. etc. all while having hundreds of years of supply of that particular commodity in the ground. The market just boils down to psychology and money flow. Like we saw last year, we can have natural gas tankers being given away if you open up a free checking account and still see natural gas rally 120% off its lows due to sentiment and money flow alone.
I try to throw all logic and pre-existing beliefs out the door and simply rely on chart patterns when investing. In this light, UNG is acting unlike it has in the past which leads me to believe something may be afoot. Will anything big happen? Who knows? We'll see how the chart progresses.
In terms of the commodity itself? Natural gas is forming a HUGE inverted head and shoulders patter. Shoulder #1- 4/10 at $4, Head- 9/10 at $3.50, and Shoulder #2 3/11 at $3.75. This pattern would project to $8 or $9 for natty in short order. We are also seeing distinct positive divergence on the percentage price oscillators (PPO), MACD etc. The 200 day moving average has also flattened out for the first time in 4 years (which I always want to see before any big sustainable thrust higher).
All charts can be found on this page-
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID660602&cmd=show[s207384618]&disp=O
Thanks for the MITK info guys!
ReplyDeleteThe volume in ZSL has been steadily increasing every day since min-April, and today the volume was just off the chart, just like the volume in SLV. Isn't it true that large volume on a flat price day after a huge rally is a very good indicator of a top?
ReplyDeleteDavid-
ReplyDeleteYes, today looks like a textbook top for silver. In fact, exactly like I had it playing out in my mind a few sessions ago. Unfortunately, I think there may be way too many people who also see this obvious topping pattern, which of course would negate its significance.
With the whole world watching, I have to assume that silver will bore us to death before it makes its plunge. Actually, the chart looks very similar to April of '06 (the only other instance 68%+ above the 200 day) where it had a blowoff top, corrected 25% in a week or so, then headed from $11 and change to $15.21 over the next couple of weeks before ultimately moving from $15.21 to $9.48 the next month.
Jesse, it would be reasonable to expect SLV to "bore" us with a flat price action for a while if only investor psychology was in play. However, we can't ignore "real" causes for a possible reversal in SLV:
ReplyDelete"CME circulates notice of raising margin requirements on silver, effective after the close of trading on Tues, 4/26
http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/clearing/files/Chadv11-149.pdf"
This is an interesting self-moderating feedback cycle: as the price of a commodity rises, the risk for long positions increases greatly, and hence CME rises the margin requirements so as to make sure that no speculators end up fully wiped out. However, this rise in the margin requirements ITSELF places a lot of stress on the speculators and if they are already nervous and are looking for a reason to sell, such a rise can cause an avalanche of selling and an abrupt end to the up trend.
ZSL - Closed red on my screen. But, it sure looks like a buy here... ;)
ReplyDeleteSince early last June an ounce of gold buys 23% fewer barrels of oil, 24% fewer pounds of copper and a shocking 48% fewer ounces of silver.
ReplyDelete"CME rises the margin requirements so as to make sure that no speculators end up fully wiped out."
ReplyDeleteSo nice of CME to be on top of keeping us all safe from ourselves, isn't it?
How nice to see my ZSL position +1.68%. Man, that was one hairy ride.
ReplyDeleteAre you talking about after hours, Mark?
ReplyDeleteDavid- That is the gain from opening trade AH's on Thur. until AH's close today. Futes off even more now.
ReplyDeleteLive gold chart just had an evil spike down, breaking below the morning's low. Silver also had a spike down, but it stopped short at the morning's low for now. I suspect that in a short order (in a few hours), silver will start leading gold to the downside. Overall, it looks like my large SLV put purchase today was very timely... If I can't make any money on ECU.TO, at least I'll make some on my SLV puts, and THEN, in 2012, ECU.TO will surely join the party. So maybe this is actually the best scenario for my port, making money BOTH on SLV puts and ECU.TO. :)
ReplyDeleteCooper took a dumper just now too.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteFCX - This chart doesn't look half bad, considering...
ReplyDelete