Monday, April 25, 2011
4/25/11 I Heard It Through The Grapevine
The opening bass riff to this song always drops me bewteen the butterfly handles of a 1968 Schwinn Stingray as a friend steers me to yet another black/strobe light party plastered with psychedelic posters and girls with long hair parted down the middle. The summer before my freshman year in high school was the ultimate awakening.
I really believe we're on the verge of a market rally that presages a mind-altering Q4 2011/Q1 2012 economic recovery. (No need to ask what I'm smoking ;)
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AONE - Holding up well, is this one gonna take off?
ReplyDeleteKyle - Danske Bank has a MITK bill pay app:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.tuaw.com/2011/03/20/bank-app-lets-you-pay-bills-with-iphone-camera/
TOF- I saw an interesting comment in the article you linked. After doing some research, it appears there is a $3K/month limit on Chase deposits this way.
ReplyDeleteFirst dip buyers AH's in sliver just got smoked for 1%. Now well below today's low.
ReplyDeleteThe 24-hour spot silver chart looks ugly, as if today really was THE top...
ReplyDeleteMark, silver spot is down way more than 1% from its NY close (closed at $47, trading at $45 now). Your ZSL will do very well tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteLet's say silver drops 25% in short order, then what happens to other commodities during the free fall? What happens to the overall market?
ReplyDeleteSo far, silver's reaction is turning out to be...well, "textbook"...taking all other commodities with it.
Its crazy to think that Silver has already dropped just about 10% in the past 24 hours.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteDavid- I know. I was referring to the globex buyers at today's low :). If this sucker breaks, it's going to get really ugly. If you woke up tomorrow and saw this, would you think, 'Man, I need to step in here right now!'...I doubt it.
ReplyDeleteSilver - Yep, a handsome 10% haircut from today's Hunt brothers peak.
ReplyDeleteThe million dollar question is going to be this: are we seeing just another small pullback in silver, which works off the locally overbought condition and then sets the stage for a new high in silver? The SLV chart between August and now looks almost identical to the 6-month chart in JJS between May 9 and November 9. Both had a single pullback in the middle of the run (starting September 28 for JJS and December 31 for SLV) that was followed by an even sharper rate of ascent into a parabolic top. The top in JJS was followed by a 20% correction from $80 (I remember shorting JJS at $75 and covering my short at $65). Somehow I think that this is the scenario that we will see with silver now. The fundamentals simply do not support a symmetrical decline to pre-QE2 levels. Most likely we will see new highs in SLV in 2011. So I will probably cover my SLV puts if I see SLV flattening out on the daily chart, just like JJS did for a week in late November.
ReplyDeleteMark: what is going to be your strategy for exiting ZSL?
"are we seeing just another small pullback in silver, which works off the locally overbought condition and then sets the stage for a new high in silver?"
ReplyDeleteI believe so, silver needed some reference point marker before it can move higher.
If I were short, I wouldn't stay short very long. Perhaps an advance of miners would be an indicator? Everyone says the miners should be leading the way, as opposed to the metals, but I'm not convinced they're correct, it's just a theory as far as I know.
Man selling redf might have been a big mistake...apparently ttheyre launching a groupon type service...there is going to be some hysteria surrounding this company this year as people compare it to groupon after groupon goes public...it could get crazy...as in $50 crazy
ReplyDeletetof - I think I saw that facebook is entering the same space, may get crowded fast.
ReplyDeletegoing long 6E here at the round number 46
all local to local action in the ES, don't trust this high, unless the big boys try to run buy stops, MS actually just bought 38's
ReplyDeleteINTC/CSCO/GE> Large Cap Value In Play newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5575 comments) on Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:58 #84601
ReplyDeleteRotation into large caps may well be underway. As usual, it becomes clear only in retrospect.
Nice move in AEZS. Holds this and 2.65 is in play.
ReplyDeletestopped out, and flipped around, short 6E at 96
ReplyDelete1/2 off at 87, stop to BE
ReplyDeleteDavid- I'll detail my highly sophisticated ZSL trading plan when I get back.
ReplyDeleteHI HO SILVER...away!!!
off at 90
ReplyDeleteRe: The Fed/ +20% newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5576 comments) on Tue, 04/26/2011 - 10:15 #84603 (in reply to #84600)
ReplyDeleteI'm with you. No one seems to have a problem with SPX 1500 at some point. We all like forecasting how/when we get to 1500. To get to 1500, we have to run through 1400. The market will take us there on its own schedule, and via maximum frustration. So I think 1400 happens soon. Once the SPX arrives at 1500, why would it stop there? No question it runs to 1600. No Fed manipulation at work here- the global economy is moving ahead full bore. The average citizen is more resilient and more resourceful than we give him credit for.
GPL - Stink bid @ $3.25
ReplyDeleteMorningstar has Well Fargo as their featured stock today. Says it is 5 star (undervalued by at least 15%).
ReplyDeleteZero hour 9 am pst Tuesday newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5577 comments) on Tue, 04/26/2011 - 11:59 #84623
ReplyDeleteHad the date and the time zone wrong.
A little like seeing your girlfriend with another guy on Saturday night but, who are you out with?
ReplyDelete"Regent thus went on to say that Barrick's strategy nowadays is of increasing gold and copper reserves and that the deal does not dilute shareholders' gold exposure per share, while enhancing copper exposure and leverage per share in a strong copper price environment. "Combined with our Zaldivar mine and Cerro Casale project in Chile" Regent said "this acquisition would position Barrick with significant production growth potential in two of the most prolific copper-producing regions of the world. This will be in addition to our targeted growth in annual gold production to 9 million ounces within the next five years.""
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=125729&sn=Detail
Guys keep an eye on HSTM. They have a very good, scalable business model.
ReplyDeleteThe expected price of any given condo in SF has now dropped to where it was in December 2000, according to the Case-Schiller index released today (instead of looking at a statistically unstable median price, they are looking at repeated sales of the same condos). Here is the news story about the broad state of things in the US:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j_Bzq7vYvMWBLzkfLRUfJPdbXmxQ?docId=6803ae3b2c114a36bc1ec094b5ab5cb0
A quote from this story:
"High unemployment, stricter lending rules and fears that prices will fall further are among the reasons why few people are buying and selling homes. A record number of foreclosures are forcing down home prices in most metro areas, and prices are expected to keep falling through this year."
So as I have been saying for a couple of years now, the time to buy a home/condo will be in 2012. :)
"So as I have been saying for a couple of years now, the time to buy a home/condo will be in 2012. :)"
ReplyDeleteDavid- The futures show a pretty distinct bottom in SF in the summer of 2012 both in nominal and inflation adjusted terms.
Now if I could just get banks to lend to me....
"David- The futures show a pretty distinct bottom in SF in the summer of 2012 both in nominal and inflation adjusted terms."
ReplyDeleteThanks for reminding me about those futures, Jesse! Where can I see a chart of these futures for SF?
David-
ReplyDeleteHere you go. Housing futures. For the most part, the futures have dropped a few percent nationwide heading out to '13 and '14. Looks like SF has maybe 8% or so to go on the downside before its off to the races:)
Sorry-
ReplyDeletehttp://www.recharts.com/cme.html
Someday BAC will actually be a LT buy. NOT today :)..Heavy selling right now.
ReplyDeleteOK David, here's my ZSL strategy...Wait on see what Ben has to say?
I remember reading an outstanding article in the Economist in 2005 about the looming real estate collapse. It left no doubt in reader's minds (at least my mind) that this would be one hell of a collapse. It showed that on average, declines of this magnitude would last approximately 8 years....
ReplyDeleteTaking us right into 2012/2013.
8 years is about right. I guess the problem I have is the cost to build right now is higher than home prices. So, the question is, which way does this divergence correct it's self.
ReplyDeleteBEXP is interesting here. Gap fill today on a down grade to hold. Earnings are Thur. I'll take a shot somewhere into earnings.
ReplyDeleteWhy, oh why did I let my MGIC go...
ReplyDeleteYou guys may want to lighten up ahead of MIPS earnings after the bell. Futures could take a big hit:)
ReplyDeleteYeah, MIPS could derail this whole thing ;)
ReplyDeleteWhere you at Jesse?
"Why, oh why did I let my MGIC go... "
ReplyDeleteMark, really? I mean you don't want me to go all REDF on you now do you?
Mark- I'm in Portland now. Absolutely loving it. I must say that the trading hours are great.
ReplyDeleteDid you guys see the natural gas fireworks the last few minutes?
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NG&p=m5
Drop to re-test the UNG 2 year downtrend line at 11.35 for the second time in 2 days. Its getting interesting. Unfortunately, charts have little to do with what Big Ben says tomorrow....
"which way does this divergence correct it's self."
ReplyDeleteBy reconverging at some point in the future?
CP- Yep, but is it by a drop in material prices or a rise in home values....Unless you just making fun of me :)
ReplyDeleteJesse- I'm meeting with my oil guy next week for a lunch/natty combo. Should be interesting.
ReplyDeleteYes, I did see that shakeout on the floor close. Not sure what to make of it.
Just think of all the poor souls trapped in PM's and PM miners just ahead of the FED release, pressure to sell must be excruciating?
ReplyDeleteNow I own some GPL
If the 9:45am dip buyers get burned on SLV today, we might go much lower than I thought.
ReplyDeleteThat didn't take long (SLV).
ReplyDeleteAEZS on volume!
ReplyDeleteGPL- Good lord, you crazy cowboy. GL!
ReplyDeleteMark - Rise in home prices, so banks don't have to eat losses. Meanwhile, high commodities will keep new inventory from accumulating.
ReplyDeleteWhere's that dollar bounce we were anticipating? I had thought about putting my cash into UUP so as to collect not only the intrinsic, but also the physical upside....
CSCO/INTC...Way to go 2nd!
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking of UUP also. Cash just sitting around still.
ReplyDeleteHome prices here bottomed last summer.
ESLR- WTH happened to that one?
ReplyDeleteGPL - Well, I still think the FED intends to err on the side of inflation... Of course they stand prepared to act quickly as dynamics change.
ReplyDeleteIt's about time they began paying attention to the economy, now if only we could get Congress to do the same as opposed to constantly daydreaming about taking vacation.
I don't know about you guys, but it seems like I've had to work harder than most to obtain my income.
Mark - here is a "take under"
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/3p2ynb9
CP-
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking the dollar might test 70.70 before its "bull market".
The dollar just tested previous support around 74.20 on 2 or 3 occasions and failed each time.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID660602&cmd=show[s201995382]&disp=O
CADC - Experiencing difficulty hanging onto $3?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Jesse.
ReplyDeleteMan, I hate doing this, but remember when we were looking at ASH @ 10ish?
ReplyDeleteJB- Yeah, I saw that this am and thought of CRYP.
ReplyDeleteAnother nice new low for FTWR on volume.
ReplyDeleteRe: Here is your rally/Correction: Beginning of the Summer Rally newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5578 comments) on Tue, 04/26/2011 - 15:19 #84638 (in reply to #84615)
ReplyDeleteThe rally didn't begin until we took out the February highs.
RUTH - Reports earnings this week. I think they blow out earnings and the stock rockets higher. Add in a heavy short interest and you could see a 50% gainer. Look at SCSS as a guide to how the US consumer is doing...I'd say she's doing just fine.
ReplyDeleteBAC dip buyers wetting their pants here...
ReplyDeleteif the rotation is on then that tells me the US economy performs better than expected...then anything tied to US consumer spending would do well. SPLS, ODP, NLS, RUTH, CAKE, PFCB...and of course, good ole BAC...now is probably a pretty good time to buy BAC
ReplyDeleteBAC for a long term buy, that is, should do really well. Sentiment sucks, bankers are in the dumps, Congress hates them. 5 years from now BAC is in the 30's.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Your not jerking around MITK again are you? :)
ReplyDeleteTeam-
ReplyDeleteYou go from momo stocks benefiting from massive technological shifts (REDF, MITK etc.) to....
a steakhouse serving a crabtini??:) I love it.
I'll wait for my MITK entry:)
Wrong bank, bro. BAC=bad ass cowboy. WFC=we ----ing cool.
ReplyDeleteAnyone going to play AMZN?
ReplyDeleteHow anyone could have foregone selling SLW at 47, and still be holding now at 39, is beyond me. Especially if they're 'all-in.'
ReplyDeleteBuy imbalances across the board.
ReplyDeletehehe...you guys are funny.
ReplyDeleteMark - nope, I'm locked and loaded on MITK from a couple of weeks ago. Liking today's action. Everything I read related to mobile check deposit involves MITK...whether it's directly with a bank or through channel partners. I'll sell some at $13.00.
Wow- GAZ at the close
ReplyDeleteman i think i'm gonna throw up over REDF. what a beast that thing is.
ReplyDeleteWMB raises dividend 60%
ReplyDeleteI think it has something to do w/ this article:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/265498-strange-times-for-gaz-natural-gas-etn?source=yahoo
AMZN bounced the second the AH's opened.
ReplyDeleteMIPS came in at $20 million in revenue. About $1 million shy of estimates.
ReplyDeleteNo joke- Q's down .13 after hours. I told you MIPS would sway the market:)
MIPS? I get those a lot on the golf course, which is why I don't play much anymore.
ReplyDeleteSLW - Looking at that chart, the first thing I see is today's gap down.
ReplyDeleteMark: "ESLR- WTH happened to that one?"
ReplyDeleteHere's what happened - and note the date and price when I entered the alert..........
The following Stock Alert has been triggered compliments of Scottrade.com.
EVERGREEN SOLAR INC - Volume exceeded 100-day average by over 150.00%
Volume: 1974709.00 at 12:07:46
Price when alert was set: 2.33 on 01/21/04 10:53:51 EST
Current Quote for ESLR
Last: 2.1892
Change: 0.2292 (11.69 %)
High: 2.24
Low: 2.00
Annual High: 7.32
Annual Low: 1.18
Previous Close: 1.96
Volume: 1974709
100-Day Avg. Volume: 789870
200-Day Moving Avg: 3.54
ESLR - Looks like it moved above the 50SMA, came back for a successful retest (several tests?) and moved on up from there.
ReplyDeleteI hope one or some of us were in it, congrats if you were...
REDF -- hit Vad's screener it seems...
ReplyDelete[09:29] {Threei} watching REDF for pullback entry
[09:32] {Threei} REDF jumped
[09:32] {Threei} momo candidate
[09:33] {Threei} if pulls back to about .60, watch for entry
[09:36] {Threei} REDF pullback should start now
the rest is at
http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/
FWIW... Here's an expression (in stockcharts scan format) of what might hit Vad's DT screener (from what I've learned)...
ReplyDelete[type = stock] and [country = us]
and [1 <= close] and [close <= 80]
and [volume > 7000000] and [high - low > 0.60]
...a simple scan that usually catches most of them
F - Best quarter in 13 years.
ReplyDeleteIllini- That's crazy buddy!!
ReplyDelete