U$D - I don't know, perhaps there's a message coming across the wires with Bernankes' address on it?
GPL - I'm beginning to think I may have jumped on GPL a little too early, a closer look at the chart seems to indicate there could be a move to around $2.90 or thereabouts...
Illini- My hope? Just a chance to suck in a few more late comers to the PM party for further distribution. Sliver has popped up to + 2.60% in Globex only to be smacked back down to +1.60%.
I suspect another open like today with heavy selling.
ES trading at overnight highs, 6E at an important inter-day level, if it bounces higher from here (4650) then I'd expect the ES to push above 46..SOH for now
Stalking Top-Callers newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5582 comments) on Wed, 04/27/2011 - 09:58 #84682 The market is teaching top-callers the same lessons bottom-callers have learned.
Coffee - Considering these record high prices, when does the Pentagon send a fleet of drones (the military version, not the Joe Biden variety) to Seattle?
Re: PM's this morning newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5583 comments) on Wed, 04/27/2011 - 11:01 #84688 (in reply to #84686) Based on past experience, I would say a sharp sell-off in metals/miners designed to shake out even diehard believers is in the cards.
Just looked at an all-time chart for AMZN. Simply amazing. Imagine if you were to invest in it in 2002.
I shouldn't be surprised one bit. Outside of grocery shopping, I literally do 80% of all my shopping on Amazon. Definitely one of those Peter Lynch investments of "buy what you know"...
I got my tax refund from IRS this week, and I figured that the best way to use it is to buy 10K more shares of ECUXF, which I just did at $0.87. FOMC announcement didn't crash silver and in fact it looks like it did just the opposite. So why not buy some ECUXF now, which today has the smallest ratio of stock price to silver price EVER (i.e., offers the best VALUE now)?
As for SLV, Jesse was right -- with too many people wanting to short it, it just CAN'T go down now. Hopefully today's spike shakes out early shorts and silver will then proceed with an orderly collapse overnight. I will then be able to buy even more ECUXF at an even cheaper price! :)
As for SLV, its a big breakout on the monthly. Me thinks money will continue flowing into it at least until the end of the month. I think the smart money will short at will when the price falls below this month's high (upon a false breakout next month)...
So, I'll be watching like a hawk the first week of May.
Same thing applies to the dollar chart. The chart is completely shot for this month. It will close at or near the low for the month and we'll have to see a (brief?)breach of the low before a possible reversal.
CSCO/GE/INTC/WFC off> 100% cash at the close newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5585 comments) on Wed, 04/27/2011 - 15:54 #84736 Taking a hit on WFC, but nice gains on everything else.
I looked through a bunch of momo charts this afternoon. The only one of interest is PLAB. Its been above its 10 wma since January and is bouncing off it this week.
Some notes:
From the most recent quarter: "As a result of robust demand for both IC and FPD photomasks we grew revenue by 23% year over year ($120.8 million) and 10% sequentially, even though the first quarter is typically seasonally slow. On the bottom line, the strong leverage in our business model resulted in EBITDA for the quarter of $42 million and EPS of $0.20 per diluted share."
Needham came out w/ a note on April 12th-
"We believe the cyclical rebound of the photomask market is poised to continue in the next 2-3 years, driven by 1) growing IC content in new consumer devices; 2) increased complexity of leading edge IC technology; and 3) new display technologies, such as OLED, driving a new design cycle in display. We believe PLAB is emerging as a technology leader and is gaining share at the leading-edge. We believe the Street is under appreciating the leverage in the financial model and we see upside to consensus earnings estimates. Therefore, we recommend investors buy PLAB as we expect share price to move higher on better earnings growth."
So THAT'S why ECU is not going up yet! The analysts covering it are totally smoked! Check this out:
"Now the negative part of the story. The financial condition of the company is actually not so bright as it may seem at a first glance:
Capital expenditures for 2010 exceeded $21M. During the past year, cash and equivalents decreased by $7.3M; not surprisingly, ECU Silver had only $345 thousand in cash at the end of 2010.
ECU Silver finished the year with a working capital deficiency of $11.75M. Moreover, the company had a long-term debt of over $13.2M."
The analyst fails to mention that in 2010 ECU expanded its production from 1 mine to 4 mines and also ordered more equipment so as to mine more ore per day (up to 1000 tpd) and fully utilize its two existing mills. They also ordered a high-performance drill and started drilling their massive sulphide deposit. Naturally, these activities are supposed to cost money, right? But isn't good analysis supposed to be forward-looking??? Doesn't this analyst see that their expanded production will be able to generate $12M in revenue per quarter starting 3Q2011, which will easily take care of all this negative working capital crap? And here is the kicker:
"In addition, the company is overvalued by traders. Its market value of $278M is well above the net worth of the business, which is about $60M. This probably raises some doubts whether a substantial rise in the share price may occur in the future."
What is that guy smoking??? Did he forget to count 400+ million AgEq ounces they have in the ground, which they are ALREADY selling using a fully developed infrastructure???
Thank you, my friend smoked analyst, since analysis like yours allows me to buy the companies stock dirt cheap!
OK guys. Assuming silver doesn't break through its monthly high of $50 by the end of this week, I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that the silver top will timewise take place between May 2-11 and pricewise between $52.50 and $53.75.
This will be followed by a pullback within 6 weeks to $35-$37.50.
The question, is...if this scenario were to take place exactly as "planned", are there any put options that would net 500%+? That is the question.
Jesse, I am pretty sure that when SLV breaks above $50, the 3-month put options with a strike of $40 will be worth less than $1, so you can easily make 500% by buying those puts if you were sure that SLV will reach $35 at some point within 3 months.
As the dollar has fallen and fallen and fallen, it has done NOTHING. It now has a very clear breakout on the weekly which took place last week. It also has a double bottom and cup and handle as well. I think something is afoot.
$USD continues a steep slide started early this afternoon. 73.46 and counting down. What, didn't Ben say the right words? Or is it only Geitner that is the mouthpiece proclaiming a strong dollar policy.
Jesse.... I held CYB for six months ending March 21 when I sold at a small profit. For me it was a place to put cash. Woulda, coulda, shoulda made somewhat more holding today. Yearly high posted 3 days ago but it doesn't move a lot and the volume comes in spurts. Maybe something is up but it depends on the Chinese government, not a predictable source.
Holy ----. Nikkei pops +1.7% just like that.
ReplyDeleteHow the HELL can anyone be short right now?
ReplyDeleteNice imagery 2nd. Reminds me of another of your classics... 'But Sir'...'Up Ben"...click..
ReplyDeleteAt 8 PM EST the dollar took a gap down but has recouped a bit. 73.85. Whats it all mean, Alphy?
ReplyDeleteChart USD: http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of the Royal Wedding, did you know that in England to "trump" means to break wind?
ReplyDeleteU$D - I don't know, perhaps there's a message coming across the wires with Bernankes' address on it?
ReplyDeleteGPL - I'm beginning to think I may have jumped on GPL a little too early, a closer look at the chart seems to indicate there could be a move to around $2.90 or thereabouts...
Illini- My hope? Just a chance to suck in a few more late comers to the PM party for further distribution. Sliver has popped up to + 2.60% in Globex only to be smacked back down to +1.60%.
ReplyDeleteI suspect another open like today with heavy selling.
ES trading at overnight highs, 6E at an important inter-day level, if it bounces higher from here (4650) then I'd expect the ES to push above 46..SOH for now
ReplyDeleteAEZS off @ 2.46. +20.50%
ReplyDeleteNICE Mark!
ReplyDeleteEFII> Delayed Reaction to Earnings newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5581 comments) on Wed, 04/27/2011 - 09:50 #84680
ReplyDeleteSetting a new 52-wk high.
Stalking Top-Callers newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5582 comments) on Wed, 04/27/2011 - 09:58 #84682
ReplyDeleteThe market is teaching top-callers the same lessons bottom-callers have learned.
I wonder if the MIPS CEO would like another shot at his CC.
ReplyDeleteENTR would be the play on MIPS if you ask me.
ReplyDeleteLooking at XLE and the PM's, looks to me like the market is pricing in some bullish $USD comments today.
ReplyDeleteMark - What is AEZS?
ReplyDeleteDear SLV- Die you pig!
ReplyDeleteBest,
Mark
TOF- An interesting Biotech play. Looks of drugs lined up in Phase I,II,and III trials.
ReplyDeleteCoffee - Considering these record high prices, when does the Pentagon send a fleet of drones (the military version, not the Joe Biden variety) to Seattle?
ReplyDeleteBought into BTU and back into PBR this morning. Now only 15% cash. Looking at longer term for these.
ReplyDelete$USD has now filled that gap down that I spoke of last night. Breaking 74 on upside.
ReplyDeleteSome $'s coming into energy here. Let's see if it holds.
ReplyDeleteDear SLV,
ReplyDeleteThank you for you timely response.
Best,
Mark
Take a look at ALU.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, AMZN. Wow, that must have been on convincing CC.
ReplyDeleteMini flash crash in RES.
ReplyDeleteGS upgrade of AONE is losing it's luster...
ReplyDeleteIllini- BTU/PBR...interesting, thanks. PBR scares me a little. Their ultra deep plays are hairy.
ReplyDeleteRe: PM's this morning newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5583 comments) on Wed, 04/27/2011 - 11:01 #84688 (in reply to #84686)
ReplyDeleteBased on past experience, I would say a sharp sell-off in metals/miners designed to shake out even diehard believers is in the cards.
FTWR - Green! Well, probably not for long...
ReplyDeleteJust bought a little more MITK at $5.48. Down big on low volume this morning.
ReplyDeleteI also bought some today, at $5.53. Yesterday I sold what little I had at 5.90. Now I have a lower cost basis and more shares.
ReplyDelete"Low rates for an extended period, inflation has picked up, no change to QE schedule."
ReplyDeleteChitty-Chitty Bang-Bang, we love you!
ReplyDeleteENTR- Told ya...
ReplyDeleteAnybody know when Ben's press conference is? I see 2:15 but I want to make sure its not after hours. Any guesses?
ReplyDeleteIllini day trading an OTC issue. Now I can die, I've seen everything. :)))
ReplyDeleteJesse- 11:15 our time.
ReplyDeleteBen's Press conference scheduled for 2:15pm today as far as I'm aware.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the info guys.
ReplyDeleteJust looked at an all-time chart for AMZN. Simply amazing. Imagine if you were to invest in it in 2002.
I shouldn't be surprised one bit. Outside of grocery shopping, I literally do 80% of all my shopping on Amazon. Definitely one of those Peter Lynch investments of "buy what you know"...
All right, I guess no one expects Ben to step up to the plate today.
ReplyDeleteZSL off @ 15.20. 500 bucks is better than nothing.
jeez...REDF is a beast. all i can do is watch.
ReplyDeleteMNKD popped up on SOH. Interesting.
ReplyDeleteMNKD- Forget it. SA article might be it, and the info on it is scary.
ReplyDeleteI got my tax refund from IRS this week, and I figured that the best way to use it is to buy 10K more shares of ECUXF, which I just did at $0.87. FOMC announcement didn't crash silver and in fact it looks like it did just the opposite. So why not buy some ECUXF now, which today has the smallest ratio of stock price to silver price EVER (i.e., offers the best VALUE now)?
ReplyDeleteAs for SLV, Jesse was right -- with too many people wanting to short it, it just CAN'T go down now. Hopefully today's spike shakes out early shorts and silver will then proceed with an orderly collapse overnight. I will then be able to buy even more ECUXF at an even cheaper price! :)
ReplyDeleteX- Yikes.
ReplyDeleteGPL - Off @ $3.63 taking the +11.7% gain
ReplyDeleteAs for SLV, its a big breakout on the monthly. Me thinks money will continue flowing into it at least until the end of the month. I think the smart money will short at will when the price falls below this month's high (upon a false breakout next month)...
ReplyDeleteSo, I'll be watching like a hawk the first week of May.
Nice CP!
ReplyDeleteLooks like no one wants to make a earnings play on BEXP.
Wow...RSI 7 on REDF is the highest I have ever seen...it hit 96.
ReplyDeleteSame thing applies to the dollar chart. The chart is completely shot for this month. It will close at or near the low for the month and we'll have to see a (brief?)breach of the low before a possible reversal.
ReplyDeleteGPL - Well, I left plenty on the table but what the hell, Honey badger!!! ;)
ReplyDeleteBEXP - I've heard lately that oil industry earnings are apt to be quite good. I've got no mechanism for verifying the claim though...
ReplyDeleteExiting OAKBX in the buy-and-hold at the close
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5585 comments) on Wed, 04/27/2011 - 15:41 #84734
Risk management.
CSCO/GE/INTC/WFC off> 100% cash at the close newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5585 comments) on Wed, 04/27/2011 - 15:54 #84736
ReplyDeleteTaking a hit on WFC, but nice gains on everything else.
Man, what a day for SLV! I am glad, Mark, that you exited your ZSL with a profit!
ReplyDeleteI cashed in on BTU near the close for a nice profit. So I lied when I said it was for the longer term. Still holding PBR though.
ReplyDeleteEnough with the birth certificate, can we please move on to the royal wedding?
ReplyDeleteSBUX/EBAY - Exceed expectation....
ReplyDeleteI looked through a bunch of momo charts this afternoon. The only one of interest is PLAB. Its been above its 10 wma since January and is bouncing off it this week.
ReplyDeleteSome notes:
From the most recent quarter: "As a result of robust demand for both IC and FPD photomasks we grew revenue by 23% year over year ($120.8 million) and 10% sequentially, even though the first quarter is typically seasonally slow. On the bottom line, the strong leverage in our business model resulted in EBITDA for the quarter of $42 million and EPS of $0.20 per diluted share."
Needham came out w/ a note on April 12th-
"We believe the cyclical rebound of the photomask market is poised to continue in the next 2-3 years, driven by 1) growing IC content in new consumer devices; 2) increased complexity of leading edge IC technology; and 3) new display technologies, such as OLED, driving a new design cycle in display. We believe PLAB is emerging as a technology leader and is gaining share at the leading-edge. We believe the Street is under appreciating the leverage in the financial model and we see upside to consensus earnings estimates. Therefore, we recommend investors buy PLAB as we expect share price to move higher on better earnings growth."
Not bad for a $500 million market cap company.
I picked some up at 9.20.
Here is a recent analyst's take on ECU:
ReplyDeletehttp://ca.hotstocked.com/article/5522/ecu-silver-mining-inc-stock-tse-ecu.html
So THAT'S why ECU is not going up yet! The analysts covering it are totally smoked! Check this out:
"Now the negative part of the story. The financial condition of the company is actually not so bright as it may seem at a first glance:
Capital expenditures for 2010 exceeded $21M. During the past year, cash and equivalents decreased by $7.3M; not surprisingly, ECU Silver had only $345 thousand in cash at the end of 2010.
ECU Silver finished the year with a working capital deficiency of $11.75M. Moreover, the company had a long-term debt of over $13.2M."
The analyst fails to mention that in 2010 ECU expanded its production from 1 mine to 4 mines and also ordered more equipment so as to mine more ore per day (up to 1000 tpd) and fully utilize its two existing mills. They also ordered a high-performance drill and started drilling their massive sulphide deposit. Naturally, these activities are supposed to cost money, right? But isn't good analysis supposed to be forward-looking??? Doesn't this analyst see that their expanded production will be able to generate $12M in revenue per quarter starting 3Q2011, which will easily take care of all this negative working capital crap? And here is the kicker:
"In addition, the company is overvalued by traders. Its market value of $278M is well above the net worth of the business, which is about $60M. This probably raises some doubts whether a substantial rise in the share price may occur in the future."
What is that guy smoking??? Did he forget to count 400+ million AgEq ounces they have in the ground, which they are ALREADY selling using a fully developed infrastructure???
Thank you, my friend smoked analyst, since analysis like yours allows me to buy the companies stock dirt cheap!
illini - "I lied when I said it was for the longer term."
ReplyDeleteThe way this market moves seemingly as a result of conflicting news articles, there doesn't appear to be any clear definition of longer term.
OK guys. Assuming silver doesn't break through its monthly high of $50 by the end of this week, I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that the silver top will timewise take place between May 2-11 and pricewise between $52.50 and $53.75.
ReplyDeleteThis will be followed by a pullback within 6 weeks to $35-$37.50.
The question, is...if this scenario were to take place exactly as "planned", are there any put options that would net 500%+? That is the question.
Jesse, I am pretty sure that when SLV breaks above $50, the 3-month put options with a strike of $40 will be worth less than $1, so you can easily make 500% by buying those puts if you were sure that SLV will reach $35 at some point within 3 months.
ReplyDeleteBernenke's comments today: Are the gold bugs howling at the dollar bugs yet?
ReplyDeleteAre you guys watching CYB?
ReplyDeleteAs the dollar has fallen and fallen and fallen, it has done NOTHING. It now has a very clear breakout on the weekly which took place last week. It also has a double bottom and cup and handle as well. I think something is afoot.
$USD continues a steep slide started early this afternoon. 73.46 and counting down. What, didn't Ben say the right words? Or is it only Geitner that is the mouthpiece proclaiming a strong dollar policy.
ReplyDeleteYep, $USD just made a new all-time low...
ReplyDeleteWhen do city, town, and state fines on dilapidated vacant properties begin to skyrocket?
ReplyDeleteJesse.... I held CYB for six months ending March 21 when I sold at a small profit. For me it was a place to put cash. Woulda, coulda, shoulda made somewhat more holding today. Yearly high posted 3 days ago but it doesn't move a lot and the volume comes in spurts. Maybe something is up but it depends on the Chinese government, not a predictable source.
ReplyDeleteSo much for ESLR. Loos like BK is around the corner.
ReplyDeleteI guess a good rule of thumb is don't hold AKAM into earnings.
ReplyDeleteKyle- You have that link to an earnings page?
ReplyDeleteGonna make another run at shorting silver...just saying.
ReplyDeleteThis comparison between AMT and FTWR at the Fool is laughable.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fool.com/investing/high-growth/2011/04/25/american-towers-management-is-creating-value.aspx