A healthy market does not move up in a straight line. It dips and rises. Periods of backing and filling are required- to shake out weak hands, and to allow strong hands to open/accumulate. A pullback will arrive soon enough. The correct move, IMO, will be to add to/open/reopen positions.
The pullback in RIMM may have already arrived- last time I checked, it was in the Cara 100. For LT buyers, we've likely already seen the lows (maybe multi-year lows) for CSCO/INTC/WFC- personally, I seem unable to shake the short-term trading bug.
Re OAKBX, I ended up (hopefully) with the last laugh. Watching today's +72-point close on the DJIA, I mentally kicked sand on the drive home for exiting on yesterday's lame +0.04 move (all told, I opened last Wednesday @ 29.26 and closed yesterday @ 29.55). After seeing this afternoon's closing +0.02 print just now, I can manage more than mentally pouring a cold one.
ReplyDeleteWow 2nd you are hard on yourself. i will have a drink with you.
ReplyDeleteRB is back, Mark. Hi RB. Sunny in Tuscon but here in Illinois it has been so wet that the farmers are griping about not being able to plant. More food inflation?
ReplyDeleteHey illini, It could not be as wet as when i lived in Lake county in 86 I believe. It was the year after the fridge won the super bowl singlehandedly. Anyway it rained every single day of the summer. It still has to be record flooding. All the farmers I knew at the riverboat casino could give a shit because the gov was paying them not to grow. THose boys always had the most chips and the most down time. I wanted to grow up and be a farmer!
ReplyDeleteRB! Coned your way into work release again? :)
ReplyDeleteLooks like we might finally be getting a summer here soon. Man, I need it.
Me too, Has not even been 100 here yet very chilly.
ReplyDelete2nd - Just think you could have sold a 30k position in REDF only to watch it go from $7 to $17...
ReplyDeleteRE: MITK...a great article:
http://digitaltransactions.net/news/story/2962
This article makes me even more bullish than ever on MITK
GT is saying new vehicle commercial tire demand will be up 40% 2011. Wow.
ReplyDeleteanother nice pop in TRE....wonder if it is finally going to fly. good vol yesterday.
ReplyDeleteThe market kind of has to go down from here newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5594 comments) on Fri, 04/29/2011 - 09:54 #84874
ReplyDeleteJMO.
GT - No matter what kind of engines or fuel the cars of the future run on they will always need tires.
ReplyDeletetof- I haven't been following REDF at all. 17 is unbelievable- now I know where your posts have been coming from.
ReplyDeleteGLD rocketing past 150. $150.30.
ReplyDelete2nd - Why do you think the market has to go down from here? It just broke out from it's previous range. Perhaps it backtests the 1,340 area but if we truly are in a breakaway bull market that no one believes in long term, then I doubt it pauses much until the 1,400 area.
ReplyDeleteIf I wasn't so bullish about MITK I would be starting a position in CTCT today. I understand the company is expensive, but look at the growth in their revenues and earnings over the past 5 years. The business model is awesome. FD: I use them for my website.
ReplyDeleteJB- Yeah, I asked you about TRE yesterday, but you were doing your usual good job of not paying attention. Any news?
ReplyDeleteCTCT off 10% on no news?
ReplyDeletehey Mark - had a bunch of webinars/con calls yesterday, and I fell asleep at my desk, again.
ReplyDeleteno news anyone can uncover...the rumor is that the haul out of the gravel machine has been huge, but that's just talk as far as I know.
TF - How about posting your wbsite address so we can see it and what CTCT does too.
ReplyDeleteIf CTCT fails here on the monthly chart, it looks like it could go to 20.
ReplyDeleteACOM...wow. Who the hell pays for that chit?
ReplyDeleteGDXJ heading in opposite direction of GLD today.
ReplyDeleteGL ladies.
ReplyDeleteGPL - Preparing for a reload, assuming silver doesn't crash...
ReplyDeleteGDXJ - Doing the same double top dance gold was doing over the last four months?
ReplyDeleteGDXJ - Perhaps it's bouncing off a debt-limit ceiling...?
ReplyDeleteCongress needs one of those glass ceiling categories, like the one corporate America has for some employees.
Copper - Retesting it's 150DMA
ReplyDeleteMark / Illini > CTCT had earnings yesterday. They do online email marketing. They have 450k businesses signed on paying monthly fees to send out email marketing campaigns to their mailing list. They're beginning to offer other related services for fees as well. It's a great business model because the cost of membership to businesses is minimal.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fiserv.com/mobile-deposit-taking-off-american-banker-aug252010.pdf
ReplyDelete"It make sense for Fiserv to partner with Mitek
given that the San Diego company has proven technology, Epperson said. “They’re sort of like the ‘Intel inside’ of mobile remote deposit capture.”
Just sold my TVIX and IWM puts as the opening dump hasn't materialized. They may continue trending it slightly into week-end.
ReplyDeleteTF - but the other article you posted doesn't even mention Mitek. In fact, it talks about how big name like Apple and google may be getting into the field. Does Mitek really have any moat besides being first? After all, they are basically a software company and there are a lot of other smart programmers out there working for big companies.
ReplyDeleteJust covered SLV short -.50. Will re-examine later..
ReplyDeleteDamn! ECUXF jumped this morning and I wasn't able to buy it at $0.80. What a great deal it would have been! Well, I'll keep my limit order open, in case ECUXF gets there when a pullback in SLV finally materializes.
ReplyDeleteGDXJ is just consolidating after a two-day runup. However, if it breaks below $41, then the chart will start telling a different story, and hence my sell stop at $41.
JB's PIPer finally broke it's downward trend line. In play?????
ReplyDeleteGLD racing.
ReplyDeleteCADC - New 52wk low...
ReplyDeleteSometimes at this time of day I feel just like an air traffic controller at Washington National Airport. zzzzzzzzzzzzzz, zzzzzzzzz
ReplyDeleteHope the shorts got off the runway apron in time...
Wanted to buy more CADC at the bid of $2.81, and as soon as I placed my buy limit, CADC jumped to $2.88. Should have been less greedy and bought it at the ask of $2.82 that existed when I looked at it...
ReplyDeleteWith GLD at $152, I decided to move up my sell stop limit to $149.95/$149.90.
ReplyDeleteDavid- Obviously your convinced CADC is a real company?
ReplyDeleteFinally, GLD is going up faster than SLV. What actually might happen now is that SLV will work off its overbought condition by going sideways while GLD catches up the lost time by rising above $1600...
ReplyDeleteMark: not nearly as much as ECU. :) I have 1K shares now and I wanted to buy 1K more shares. For comparison, I have 165K shares of ECU now. :)
ReplyDeleteMiners index was 552.88 this morning, down from yesterday's 555.53 but above the 1-month moving average of 500.56
ReplyDeleteCADC - I'm convinced it's a real company, I'm not convinced the VIE is a viable business model.
ReplyDelete12.10 UNG 200 day. BIG BIG BIG level. Let's see how it reacts.
ReplyDeleteCapitualtion bar in CTCT?
ReplyDeleteUNG - That's starting to look more and more like a range trade setup with a positive-sloping trend line.
ReplyDeleteCrap, I was thinking today was Thursday, I must've been asleep at the controls...
ReplyDeleteGuys-
ReplyDeleteI have been looking at the bull market since the '09 low. The Dow has hugged the 34 week moving average most of the way up. The index reached "extremes" above the 34 week moving average on 3 occasions. Here are the deviations from the moving average and the reaction over the next few weeks.
1) 1/2010 -1000 points above the 34 week moving average. 800 point reversal within a couple of weeks.
2) 4/2010 850 points above 43wma. 1300 point reversal w/in 2 weeks.
3) 2/11 1150 points above 43wma. 900 point reversal w/in 3 weeks.
Today: 1070 points above 43wma.
Given the above, coupled with the market entering May, exiting earnings season, and the CSFB smart money fear index (put premium) hitting an extreme, the risk/reward is quickly shifting.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, the smart money is still at 46% bullish. I need to see around 25% before I go all in on the put side.
SLV breaking lower when nobody is watching.
ReplyDeleteOverbought can get even more overbought, PM's are one group I wouldn't short on a longer time horizon considering the dollar bubble unwind is just beginning to gain momentum.
ReplyDeleteSo I guess that's what those ultra inverse ETF's are all about, aren't they, specifically for folks who are able to time market movements?
While I was looking away, CADC did fill my buy limit at $2.81 for 1000 shares.
ReplyDeleteCP -- this might be that break in CADC below $3 that you were predicting, which served to run all stops before rocketing higher.
ReplyDeleteWent long GMXR. A nat gas play :(.
ReplyDeleteHey, does anyone recall someone saying something about miners should be leading the PM's and so predicted the PM rally would flop?
ReplyDeleteI'm gonna keep this in mind for future conversation, I just wanted to make sure I wasn't mistakenly tracking something that came from my own imagination...
David - "CP -- this might be that break in CADC below $3 that you were predicting, which served to run all stops before rocketing higher."
ReplyDeleteIt very well could be David, I'm a deer in the headlights over here sitting in a pile of cash that needs to go somewhere too.... Arghhhh!!!!
I'm eyeing GPL closely today, it's back to where I sold it a coupla days ago.
RB- Looks like good entry on GMXR. Weekly chart just shaped up today.
ReplyDeleteIts one of my stocks of the year that we all threw out back on New Years.
Picked up some ATEA again after a fall back to my original entry. Still love that .34 eps.
ReplyDeleteShorted SLV at close on what looks to me as a bearish weekly candle close on 750 million shares traded.
ReplyDeleteJesse, Pure chart play with decent risk reward.Why do you like the company?
ReplyDeleteChinese stocks - And what would someone expect the market reaction to these would be as the U$D continues it's decline? Can't we say that as the dollar declines, US equities become more attractive and therefore countries with rising currencies less attractive?
ReplyDeleteChina, if they are concerned with inflation, could allow their currency to rise, and have, which makes US equities more attractive in comparison and slows down the hot money rush into China.
How that affects a US listed Chinese company is a bit foggy to me, but perhaps owning a US listed Chinese equity is a liability as the dollar falls and so may explain the recent trend in that sector?
I'm thinking out loud here, and I'm not really sure which way the dollar is headed tonight or tomorrow, only that there is an established trend with fundamentals to support the thesis.
RB- Simply a play on natural gas. All of my stocks of the year- UNG, HNUZD, DPTR, GMXR are plays off natty.
ReplyDeleteGMXR chart pattern suggests 400-600% potential. I leave it to the board yahoo's to stammer on about how its wells and such support double digits. Since all great CEO's are essentially highly paid salespeople w/ a stock to sell, I simply let the charts do the talking.
Possible reversal close on UUP. Picked up EUO AH at 16.28. That's it for me.
ReplyDeleteTrump - Even though he's my neighbor now and I half expect he may show up to borrow a cup of sugar, doesn't mean he's earned all rights to live next door to me.
ReplyDeleteIf only instead of making a Freudian racial comment, he had claimed he has always been a proud American, that would have earned him a few points.
EUO - Looks primed up and ready to go, I might follow you into that trade once gold closes at or above my $1570 target.
ReplyDeleteSaw one of those ZIPer cars here today.
ReplyDeletesure hope that TRE is finally breaking out, with the planned increases in tuition at the UC's all but finalized I'm going to need that pig to ROCK.
ReplyDeletehave a great weekend traders
You too bro.
ReplyDeleteJB college is for suckers. Send the girls to Tucson and we will teach them to be stove top pharmacists. Pay is great, Retirement plan includes room and board plus free jump suits. Just a suggestion.
ReplyDeleteHave a good weekend!
heck no RB, I'm heading to Tuscon, been looking at a lot of places online. The wife and I are going to head down towards the end of summer to look at a few places. Did a couple of races there and we just love it.
ReplyDeleteWhere abouts in Tuscon are you?
I guess TF isn't going to show me his pretty website. Honestly, I am not a hacker. Don't know the first thing about it.
ReplyDeleteAlso looks like he is not commenting on Mitec's moat. Realize that is a hard one to gauge. Only Microsoft and Apple have maintained wide and deep moats in the software industry. Adobe too I guess.
I'm smack in the middle. I am a commuter cyclist. Work is 5 miles away.Ride is real nice lately. Strong Wind was at my back today. My bike is one of the few joys left. That and of coarse torpedo.
ReplyDeletewe must have been separated at birth RB - cycling and Sierra Nevada brew, life doesn't get any better than that!!
ReplyDeleteTorpedos? How soon we forget...
ReplyDeleteI've found personally that I can avoid hangovers by (a) sticking to red wine, or (b) drinking Nadurra. Not sure what that means, though.
ReplyDeleteIt means you have found a groove, like I have with red wine (the drier the better but drink plenty of water too). Never have tried Nadurra.
ReplyDeleteDry red wine works for me any day! I like Cognac too...
ReplyDeleteNadurra sounds too close to Madurra for me, is it made on the stovetop?
Or, I meant Madera... Something like that.
ReplyDeletewe've got a wine trail down here now CP....just like all those top shelf types up near Mark.
ReplyDeleteGrab some Sierra Nevada's tonight 2nd, you won't regret it!
Nadurra is whiskey. "Not that there is anything wrong with that".
ReplyDeleteReviews here http://www.allthingswhisky.com/?page_id=349 and here http://www.boozebasher.com/2007-07-07/scotch/review-the-glenlivet-nagravedurra/
Hey Illini - Sorry man...I mentioned this a while ago but I'd prefer to keep my website private (until it goes public!).
ReplyDeleteAs far as MITK's moat goes, from what I've seen/read it looks like their patents hold up fairly well, but more importantly they have first mover advantage and banks are in a rush to get in the mobile deposit game. Maybe in a year we can talk about competition, but MITK has already signed deals with pretty much every channel partner in the financial industry and they are all licensing their software out to banks/credit unions. It's a very smart move because it gives the banks/CUs/channel partners the ability to brand their company to the end customer but it also speeds up the adoption process by the financial institutions and keeps their overhead lower.
If you look around in the industry and read the articles about mobile deposit, any mention of mobile deposit leads back to Mitek. You just have to connect the dots but they're in every single article I have seen. Whether its a Fiserve product, a Bluepoint Solutions product, a 3i Infotech product, or a mFoundry product, they're all using MITK. It's a risky investment for sure...the riskiest thing being low liquidity. But also the fact that the check writing industry is slowly dying and their success is reliant upon consumers' willingness to adopt this technology. And banks/consumers have to be willing to accept fraud risk. But from a common sense standpoint it's a no brainer. They essentially have a monopoly on an industry that is rapidly growing, the technology reduces costs for banks and it is convenient (saves time and gas) for consumers. And their technology can be used in many other applications that could be pretty big, like Mobile Bill Pay (snap photo of a bill and pay it..software recognizes everything on the invoice - http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xgp775_ces-2011-mobile-bill-payment-w-mobile-photo-bill-pay_tech) and Mobile Phax. In my personal analysis of this company I have assigned a zero value to these other applications.
NKE - Gap nearly filled.
ReplyDeleteVHC - Anybody following this one?....
Let's get something straight- I introduced Torpedos on this blog in 2010! When it comes to beer, I'm IPA all the way- Mark can attest to my orders at the 21st Amendment.
ReplyDeleteTP - thanks for the response. I think they do have a moat for now although it may be shallow and subject to a flood/washout by some bigger competitors. But that is in the future and they may be bought out by one of the behemoths. Liquidity is indeed a problem but I have had little trouble making two profitable round trips thru Scottrade, the latest sale this morning at 5.69. I know MITK should be a long term hold but it is so volatile that I assume I can get back in lower. So I am presently out but see the potential even though I am a fixed base operator who does not even have a cell phone let alone a smart phone. I do have a scanner and it would have been nice to electronically deposit my recent IRS refund check from home. (I do not opt for the IRS to do an e-deposit for me). I see a lot of potential in mobile/scan deposit and bill pay, as you do.
ReplyDeleteCSCO/INTC- What's with the vertical spikes in prices in the last 10 minutes? They gave it all back after hours, but I see high volume bars.
ReplyDelete