Watching the indexes tumble. Great stuff, man. We need to work off as much positive sentiment as possible. Watch the archer pull back the bowstring- once he releases the tension, watch that sucker fly.
Friday, May 13, 2011
05/13/11 Friday the 13th> A Fantastic Day For Bulls
Posting from the back room of the local Toyota dealer:
Watching the indexes tumble. Great stuff, man. We need to work off as much positive sentiment as possible. Watch the archer pull back the bowstring- once he releases the tension, watch that sucker fly.
Watching the indexes tumble. Great stuff, man. We need to work off as much positive sentiment as possible. Watch the archer pull back the bowstring- once he releases the tension, watch that sucker fly.
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I'm with you. I am losing right now, but still a good distance from stops. Just chop and dollar vodoo. Market is holding up in my opinion. Are you in Bullhead? :)
ReplyDeleteOk, I have not posted lately cause I do not have much to say and post comment as profile no loner lets me select my user name.
ReplyDeleteOne thing I can say for sure and I like about 2nd is he always an different take on psychology of the market, even though I often disagree, I enjoy his takes.
T3d
Too funny 2nd. Damn, with the amount of time you spend at that dealership you could own it!
ReplyDeleteT3D- Glad you checked in. OK, what's your broad stroke take here.
While we were down, I switched my trading account to last in first out. I know it really makes no difference in the long run, but I wanted to lighten up my BEXP. So I sold this morning 2K shares that I picked up @ about 26.90 for 27.95, banking the $2k. I might reload them here soon, but going into the weekend, well, that kinda makes me nervous.
BEXP - Loaded some @$26.70, on the dollar run up to the 76 target.
ReplyDeleteSit back now and see which way she goes...
I'm being squeezed by BTU but it took a bounce off it's EMA 200 so I am still in.
ReplyDeleteNice entry CP! Obviously I'm glad I booked some coin on it, but could care less what people are buying and selling it for today. Honestly, I really don't give a shit.
ReplyDeleteJust bought 1000 more shares of CADC at $2.41, for a total of 3000 shares. Just keeping up with my self-destructive habit of buying stocks that are going down.
ReplyDeleteWATG did not start trading as a pink sheet today, and it may not start trading at all until the company comes up with all its prior earnings revisions.
David! Damn, I'm Fing crazy, but hell, I've sworn off of those plays.
ReplyDeleteMark - Does that mean you've sold you BEXP? I thought your current position was slightly red.
ReplyDeleteI thought the dollar might reverse around 76, and needed something a bit different to think about.
I had considered IMO, but thought why not BEXP? So the car...
Mark, I would simply say decide on the amount of risk one wants to assume for their own circumstances and then trade/invest accordingly.
ReplyDeleteI sense I trade much more defensively than the majority here especially after the two year run we have had. I have sold down and out of most of my positions in the last few weeks, but of those that I have on they are moving 3-7% on a daily basis with a downward bias.
The short take is I have lighten up a lot but still getting a lot of heat. t3d
The nasdaq monthly high going back to 2000 is 2861.51. The nasdaq has been attracted to this number all week.
ReplyDeleteThen today, it touched it twice. Today's high- you guessed it- 2861.51.
I don't like to see a lot of volatility around an important number. Kind of like all of the volatility around Cara's SPX 1030 last July.
I was very bullish yesterday (especially semis), but I just have a gut feeling here. Especially after kissing that important number on the nose-twice and then selling off. Sold my positions.
3d What Would it take for you to start accumalting shares again?
ReplyDeleteCP- Hell no. I just sold 2K shares that I picked up the other day on a panic for a $2K gain. Still hold 6K shares at a basis of 28.32.
ReplyDeleteT3D- Thanks buddy!
ReplyDeleteAS of 2:10, S&P down 0.81% and US $ (UUP) up 0.74%.
ReplyDeleteSo nothing really happenning today and the companies and market are worth the same now as they were yesterday, but turn on CNBC and the wall of worry is building.
rb- Yes, mentally I'm hunched over a half dozen empty Negra Modelos on the outskirts of Bullhead.
ReplyDeletebb- Yeppers...
ReplyDeleteWTIC goes green into the floor close. Probably just short covering into the weekend.
ReplyDeleteMark- I end up in that back room every six months. I always try to take both family vehicles in at the same time.
ReplyDeletejesse- I hear you, man. And normally I'd probably join you on the sidelines. But there's something happening here, and none of us know what it is, do we...
ReplyDeleteNasdaq - Speaking of nasdaq, it that an inverse H&S pattern with head at March 16? If it is, does the neckline have a positive slope?
ReplyDelete2nd- Driving 2 cars at the same time! Wow, I need a photo of that :)!
ReplyDeleteIt feels like the bulls are allowing the shorts one last yahoo this weekend before the slaughter.
ReplyDelete"I always try to take both family vehicles in at the same time."
ReplyDeleteI can just envision 2nd driving one vehicle a block then walking back to get the other... 2 blocks at a time, on the way to the dealership.
I'm not in Bullhead for nothing, man. Just camping out before the choppers take off on Monday. Going through my 'music to watch the shorts go 'bye' list.
ReplyDeleteFTWR green on today's action? The world is indeed upside down.
ReplyDeleteYou guys have obviously never seen a tow bar.
ReplyDeleteBets on SPX 12/31/11? Three categories:
ReplyDelete(a) Below 1300
(b) Between 1300 and 1400
(c) Above 1400
Yesterday's low in SLV could have indeed been THE low for its pullback. I am afraid that I won't be able to buy more ECUXF under $0.8 if I wait for it to hit $0.7. So I have just placed a buy limit order for 5000 shares at $0.75, for 6000 shares at $0.7 and for 7000 shares at $0.65.
ReplyDelete(c)
ReplyDelete2nd -- I firmly believe we go below 1300; that's why I'm LONG some SSO ... ;-)
ReplyDeleteTZOO is going to close the week exactly where I wanted it right near the 10wma @70.13 (this # changes every time I look at stockcharts.com).
ReplyDeleteIt looks great on the weekly, but terrible on the daily. What to do?
Kyle- Why don't you take a walk with Mark and me out back. We'd like you to reconsider your answer.
ReplyDeleteThere's no room for conflicted dudes in this game. You're either in, or out.
ReplyDeleteBTW- What a great game last night! GO SHARKS!!!
ReplyDelete"never seen a tow bar"
ReplyDeleteYou're right, maybe by the beach it would be named "The Undertow" bar, here we have a local bar called "The Reactor".
We used to frequent one called "The Infirmary" in Santa Clara.
You got it, CP! The kind of bar where they need to tow you out, then call someone to tow you home.
ReplyDeleteBTW- Smart money bullish % has been trending down the last few days. 42% at the moment. I don't act aggressively on this number until it gets into the mid-high 20's. Nonetheless, something to watch.
ReplyDeleteAs for a,b,or c. I have no clue. Hopefully C.
2nd - With my plan you only have to walk half the distance. It's much better than walking both there and back, which is what might happen if you don't have the scheduled maintenance performed in the first place...
ReplyDelete2nd -- Seems like you've forgotten the message in the Quint Tatro (Trade the Trader) post you made back on 02 Jan. Multiple Levels in this game...
ReplyDeleteAfter six Negra Modelos, I might be excused for confusing Quint with Clint- is it me, or is Clint the official quote source today at the downtown bar?
ReplyDeleteYogi Bear, good question, I'll know when I see it which is non-specific, but it like a chick some your attracted to and some your not.
ReplyDeleteI not afraid to change on a dime.
Kind of pissed I did not catch the shift into health care, a sleep at the switch. I have been somewhat dis-interested in the market as of late and have just been spending time on a tennis court or at the gym.
I think we will get QE3, but not right away, so we have great uncertainty here now and prices are whipping around way too fast for me to be interested right now.
Patience and picking your spots/stocks will be key as usual and knowing yourself and your objectives. My goal is to consistently take dollars out of the market not hit the ball out of the park.
Hope this helps, but I doubt it, as these pursuits are so individualistic based on each persons needs and personality. t3d
t3d -- very good points; GS may be interesting on the short put trade as the volatility increases...
ReplyDeletePretty much everything on my watchlist is getting pushed down by its 10 dma or is falling through it today.
ReplyDeleteI can't find anything that looks like a potential setup. I can usually get a much better feel for market direction by simply looking at my watchlist vs. looking at tons of index charts.
Man, this is boring...
ReplyDeleteOne more observation. After hitting my year high, I've been getting nickled and dimed to death these past two weeks. I've been taking on more and more risk/leverage with each new trade.
ReplyDeleteI don't want to predict a crash or anything like that, but in my experience, whenever this happens to me and my trades get bigger and bigger and bigger and I seek "revenge", the market bottom falls out and absolutely destroys me.
So, in that light, I am sitting on my hands and will enjoy the weekend.
Good point Jesse.
ReplyDeleteWait a second. 2nd says its going up. So start buying!
ReplyDeletePS. Is my spelling and grammar getting better 2nd.
RMBS what the hell happened there.
ReplyDeleteIt does feel like we're sliding into the abyss, yet the S&P still holds above 1330, WTH, my port peaked at S&P 1300 then turned down while S&P kept heading north.
ReplyDeleteFrustrating! King dollar falls, my port is flat at best. Dollar rises, my port falls. Dollar headed to zero along with my port, what gives, even PM's are following this plan. Nowhere to hide but T's to minimize loss or maybe healthcare which of course gets hit the first morning you oversleep! Just look at that mid April gap up on UNH, a disappointment waiting to happen at the blink of an eye?
RMBS - Your first clue is located in the last two letters of the ticker.
ReplyDeletePicked up some TVIX at close. Potential setup on multiple time frames, most importantly on the weekly.
ReplyDeleteGotta be maximum frustration for VXX and TVIX holders. Quite a bit of volatility for the week and they are both down quite a bit. On a day the Nasdaq is down 35, TVIX is up 2%, VXX up 1%??? Hmmm... Could be max frustration.
I just saw that my buy limit for 5000 shares of ECUXF at $0.75 did get executed. So NOW I can breath a sigh of relief about not missing this amazing buying opportunity. Even if my other two buy limit orders at $0.7 and $0.65 do not get executed, I have already picked up 23000 shares at the average price of $0.73, and when ECU reaches $5, I will make 100K on these shares alone. :)
ReplyDeleteRiddle: How is the dollar similar to an American political election?
ReplyDeleteAssuming, of course, that ECUXF does not get delisted like WATG, in which case all my family savings will just disappear. :)
ReplyDeleteThis is just a hunch. 80-90% of the S+P 500 reported earnings when the Euro was between 145-149. Thus for companies w/ European exposure, analyst estimates were based on that exchange rate and the increased demand due to that exchange rate.
ReplyDeleteThe Euro closed at 140.52, which in the currency markets is a gigantic change in a few weeks. My guess is that if the Euro doesn't rebound quickly, analysts will start releasing their "notes" in the coming weeks revising their estimates based on the new exchange rate.
If this turns out to be true, the individual investor will have little to no knowledge of these "notes" and will wonder why their stocks keep gapping down.
Just a theory.
RBY - Man that thing is strong, is it real or is it memorex?
ReplyDelete"My guess is that if the Euro doesn't rebound quickly, analysts will start releasing their "notes" in the coming weeks"
ReplyDeleteDo ya think Europe may raise rates again due to excessive "inflation" or Bernanke might buy up some eurodebt? I guess these (someone) guys decide in advance when a currency should go up or down then they place their trades accordingly?
Copper - If it's any consolation, copper managed a small gain today, could just be another headfake designed to suck in a few more sheeple?
ReplyDeleteSteelers - This index closed well in the red, down -2.5%! Ouchie!!!
Here's a what if......
ReplyDeleteMarket bottoms usually happen precisely when the worst news in the world is released and market tops happen precisely when the best news in the world is released.
So, as I said 2 weeks ago, what if in hindsight May 2, 2011 becomes known as the big juicy "BLT".
AKA The Bin Laden Top
For my portfolios sake, I sure hope not.
As the indexes closed on some key levels and trendlines, if the market is true to character, we'll get a nice gap up on Monday. If we get a gap down, imo, the market has changed character for the intermediate term.
Marc Faber guarantees QE3, QE4, QE5, QE10 saying its already in the Feds plans.
Bernanke said in his press conference, "There will not be another quantitative easing".
If there is another QE, there is only one way Bernanke will be allowed to break his promise. And that will be one hell of a market collapse.
My gut has me analyzing all angles as there tends to be lots of "contained volatility" at market turning points.
"in my experience, whenever this happens to me and my trades get bigger and bigger and bigger and I seek "revenge", the market bottom falls out and absolutely destroys me."
ReplyDeleteI have to say this is a pendulum that swings both ways, I've been left sitting in too much cash before as well. Take a look at the RSI's, S&P RSI(7) hasn't passed down through 30 yet, since it last turned down through 70. Well, maybe it did today? I won't know myself, until tonight or the next gap up, whichever occurs first...
Okay, so Bernanke says we need a debt limit increase immediately, but no more QE? Why would we need the increase the ceiling if someone doesn't need/want to buy more of our debt? Enough of the existing debt can be rolled over and leveraged from this point going forward to keep Washington DC fat and happy??
ReplyDeleteJust a few thoughts...
The good news causing the dollar rally must be that social security and medicare won't run out of money for at least in excess of a few more months.
ReplyDeleteNKE - Another one that got away from me, I left a lot of profit on the table with that one...
ReplyDeleteU$D - Anybody have an RSI(7) for the U$D? It looks pretty high here to me, well into the 70's?
ReplyDelete2nd- You sure that photo wasn't taken at the police dept.?
ReplyDeleteHoly cow..No need to worry about burning off overly bullish sentiment. Looks like we're headed for 1233.
ReplyDeleteNews media says gasoline prices will be falling appreciably soon, must be time to buy UGA, LOL?
ReplyDeleteRe "Bets on SPX 12/31/11?"....
ReplyDeleteI'm going with b)Between 1300 and 1400, based on my Stops and Targets algo. It's still bullish LT with a target/resistance of 1426 but that makes the risk reward ratio very poor for new bull entries since the initial place for those was way back in the 1230's.
However, the 7 months till year end is more in the intermediate time frame and here the algo has turned bearish just today and the same goes for the short term. For the IT it threw off a counter trend sell sell signal with a target/resistance down at 1321. That could easily flip back flip to a bull/buy signal Monday with just a few points move upwards.
So thats why I am in the middle and conflicted. Hey, you didn't expect an easy answer, did you? And if you want my own feelings added in I think closer to 1300 than 1400.
Photo--It's not as bad as Nick Nolte's mugshot! 2nd's hair is combed very nicely.
ReplyDeleteIllini- 2nd's a confidence man, not a drunk...wait a minute :)...
ReplyDeleteMark- Very funny. There's a web cam built into my laptop, so the photo was real time.
ReplyDeleteJust got back from SF. I was off from work today, but made it to an after work send off for a colleague who is leaving for greener pastures.
ReplyDeleteDaily Grill right off Union Square. I had the chicken pot pie + two martinis. Now I know why bankers love the 2-martini lunch.
A flim-flan man? Just because he slams between flim/bull and flan/bear ST? Even my S&T algo does that. Flim Flan Man.....a great movie BTW.
ReplyDeleteHere's my take. Not a single freaking analyst (apart from a couple of celebrity types who enjoy the limelight) seriously thinks we hit 1500 by year-end. Well, there may be a few with that opinion, but apart from Birinyi they're not getting much face time.
ReplyDeleteHowever, the market doesn't give a ---- what anyone thinks. (That's what I like about the market.) Right now, it seems to be saying we're headed for better times by year-end. So I listen to what it's saying, and try to invest accordingly.
He is not drunk just hung over. In fact i am drunker than Nick Nolte at the moment on Monkey Shine the best liquid on earth.
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/3j698m3
The only difference is I have on an authentic SILK Hawaiian shirt. Good for the DRY heat!
http://crime.about.com/od/famousdiduno/ig/celebrity_mugshots/noltenick.htm
Is there a problem with being 'drunk?' It's a word with positive connotations. A word that symbolizes living life to the fullest. Drunk on life. Drunk with rage. Drunk on wine. Drunk with joy.
ReplyDeleteI aspire to be in a drunken state every day.
Look, guys. We rally on Monday. If you're not already long, tough ----.
ReplyDeleteI have a camera in my new laptop also. Very cool. Dell puts Skype on board. I do not yet know how to do a still of me but from what I've seen on Skype I am not exactly photogenic. My grandchildren present beautifully though. Maybe I'm prejudiced.
ReplyDeleteDell has always been in cahoots with MSFT and I suspect they will go on with Skype. Today I took a big plunge into MSFT at 25.09 just as a value play similar to CSCO.
illini- We'll be toasting each other New Year's Eve. It's destiny.
ReplyDeleteNot taking away from illini. You are the man! Quite possibly the best post ever On C.C.:
ReplyDeleteWhere the hell has 2nd ave been?
Re: 2nd_ave
Submitted by bobbyo (637 comments) on Thu, 05/12/2011 - 19:35 #85801 (in reply to #85799)
Maybe he is upset about CSCO's guidance for the next quarter and is laying low in an off beat place like maybe Bullhead City. Here is a video in honor of his absence. Don't hate on me. 40,000,000,000 hits cannot be wrong.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1zuN17t51A
U$D 38.2% retrace?
ReplyDelete81.5 was recent top
72.69 was recent bottom
Therefore:
((81.5-72.69)*.382)+72.69 -> 76.05
RB - I wish I had a silk shirt. I have one newer shirt that looks Hawaiian but when I wore it last summer my eldest granddaughter (11) blurted out "Thats a beach shirt". Peculiar attire in Peoria, Illinois.
ReplyDeleterb- You nailed it, man. Laying low is an under-appreciated art form.
ReplyDeleteBullhead and Peoria are perfect locations for it.
Come to think of it, Petaluma and wherever the hell jb lives would also qualify.
ReplyDeleteRB/2nd....I saw that video, RB. Yeah, there have been numerous posts lamenting the late 2nd. All good. Mine seemed to insult him. One more time over the gray area of the line and I might go too.
ReplyDeleteIlli a Silk Hawaiian shirt looks good anywhere. Even in central Illinois! You could start wearing Charlie Sheen Bowling shirts and everyone will think your COOL!
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/657ulcl
In checking the other blog it appears we are more active at this time. Not that it really matters. In a few minutes I am going into my TV room to catch the Jay Leno monologue. I need more chuckles after the day in CSCO/BTU.
ReplyDeleteillini- I saw that. You took a knife in the side for me, and I appreciate it.
ReplyDeleteWithin a week that particular blog will be (as John Mayall might say) 'all in the past,' and we'll all have moved on to better things.
Did rb mention Charlie Sheen and 'cool' in the same freaking sentence? Charlie was cool twice in his career- when he played a 15-year-old high school QB in his first film, and when he sucked in a lungful of hash at the end of an M16.
ReplyDeleterb, jb, bb, vb...what's happened to you, vb?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ljw8iahCI7o&feature=fvst
ReplyDeleteThis is a good movie I am going to make my teenagers watch it or no allowance.
Sorry about Charlie Sheen, but hey If Illi shows up at the soccer game with Charlie's latest, I'm not responsible for the Soccer MILF (I mean Mom)pandemonium! In Illinois they come running as fast as they can. Every girl is crazy about a sharp dressed man!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-y33Uq6HGs
JB lives in Madera, which we have the 'pleasure' of visiting next weekend for his daughters HS graduation. I'm taking the converty. 160MPH in AND out :)..
ReplyDeleteLeno was good for a few laughs. Now its on to soccer in the morn at 55 deg, showers and windy. Maybe if I can take it. Been raining again today which will only add to the floods down stream. Illinois River empties into Mississippi above STL and above where the great Missouri does the same. Thats your geography lesson for the day.
ReplyDeleteOne of my favorite bumper stickers from years ago was "We All Live Downstream". Ain't it the truth.
Assuming you get 8 mpg, then 160 mph @ $4/gal = $80/hr.
ReplyDeleteMadera almost sounds like Nadurra, doesn't it? I don't know guys, I actually kinda like Firebau, it never seems to get cold and the heat is a dry heat that's easy to get used to. East Madera is another story though...
ReplyDeleteIf you don't like driving in tulie fog but must, do so with your window down so you can hear any accidents in front of you as cars slam into each other. ;)
And 2nd looks distinguished, if you ask me.
ReplyDeleteMadera? I have been there. AN Airplane sprayed me with Pesticide. No wonder he wants to move to Bullhead. Reminds me of this video.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Cic8kxIsvA
One of the best songs about central cali ever written.
T'll never swim Kern River again.
It was there that I met her.
It was there that I lost my best friend.
And now I live in the mountains.
I drifted up here with the wind.
And I may drown in still water,
But I'll never swim Kern River again.
I grew up in an oil town,
But my gusher never came in.
And the river was a boundary,
Where my darlin' and I used to swim.
One night in the moonlight,
The swiftness swept her life away.
And now I live on Lake Shasta,
And Lake Shasta is where I will stay.here's the South San Joaquin,
Where the seeds of the dust bowl are found.
And there's a place called Mount Whitney,
From where the mighty Kern River comes down.
Now, it's not deep nor wide,
But it's a mean piece of water, my friend.
And I may cross on the highway,
But I'll never swim Kern River again.
I'll never swim Kern River again.
It was there that I met her.
It was there that I lost my best friend.
And now I live in the mountains.
I drifted up here with the wind.
And I may drown in still water,
But I'll never swim Kern River again.
JNJ - Has just killed it, hasn't it?
ReplyDelete8 MPG? what the heck gets just 8 MPG, surely it must either be a barge or in serious need of a tuneup?
ReplyDeleteFRO/BALT - Man, what is up with shipping???
ReplyDeleteGS - That's not a buy?
ReplyDeleteSince I've been kicked to the curb we may be making the move to Az sooner than we thought.
ReplyDeleteMadera isn't a bad place, I'm just done with trying to stay in front of three acres of weeds...:)
Interesting how quickly the press and the blogsphere turn negative when we are only 2.5% from a multi-year high.
ReplyDeleteSome of the people I follow who have called this market well and are bullish are:
Michael Santoli at Barrons who quotes Tony Dwyer calling for 1575 by year end:
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970203286304576313262992330454.html?mod=BOL_twm_col
Jeff Saut at Raymond James "while the intermediate/long-term internal stock market energy remains fully charged for a move higher, the market’s short-term energy still needs some time to rebuild. "
http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm
And from the latest Tweedy Brown quarterly (they are a deep value investment fund with a very long term track record):
Deeply undervalued securities are becoming increasingly difficult to find in this environment, but the Fund portfolios are still trading at very reasonable valuations that appear downright cheap when compared to most
fixed income alternatives.†
And they recently bought CSCO!
BSQR...Worth keeping an eye on.
ReplyDeleteJB, Kicked to the curb? Sorry to hear about that.
ReplyDeleteBB what is your investment time frame?
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete