Monday, May 16, 2011

05/16/11 Tested

Day 1. My conviction gets tested right out of the gate.

Watching the final hour of the regular session today, I had to 'override' the impulse to close my longs. Even now, almost five hours later, the internal debate continues.

Igor asks the right question- why am I bullish?

My mind takes me to a 2-year chart of TCK for encouragement- man, it's like trying to stick to a diet:

http://tinyurl.com/3d9xcdk

Right now, it's a raging inner battle with no clear winner.
Posted by at

25 comments:

  1. 2nd_aveMay 16, 2011 at 6:18 PM

    Torn between capital preservation on the one hand. A gut feeling we blast higher on the other.

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  2. 2nd_aveMay 16, 2011 at 6:23 PM

    With beaten down blue chips, I think the downside is limited. On the other hand, 15-20% downside is a distinct possibility, and that would be a serious hit any way I look at it.

    ReplyDelete
  3. 2nd_aveMay 16, 2011 at 6:25 PM

    What if the SPX decides on an overnight lift-off? I preserve capital, only to see a +5% gap up the following morning..followed by successive gaps up the next several days?

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  4. MarkWMay 16, 2011 at 6:43 PM

    2nd- I'm not sure what the catalyst would be for those types of moves.

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  5. MarkWMay 16, 2011 at 6:47 PM

    Igor- No, I don't like HPQ. Nothing to do with the stock or it's potential...I just hate their products.

    According to the recent 13-F fillings, John Paulson took a 25M share position.

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  6. illiniMay 16, 2011 at 6:49 PM

    My late post on other thread:

    MITK/TISA... Top Image Systems Ltd is an Israeli very small cap company who went up 42% today on news that they were entering the mobile phone, bank deposit business. They are already into this:

    "capture and classify data that enters your organization, process, validate and integrate it into your ERP, CRM and workflow systems."

    Whatever all that means. They do have international biz and do make a profit, unlike Mitek.

    http://www.topimagesystems.com/

    http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=tisa
    May 16, 2011 6:46 PM

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  7. DavidMay 16, 2011 at 7:14 PM

    "With beaten down blue chips, I think the downside is limited. On the other hand, 15-20% downside is a distinct possibility, and that would be a serious hit any way I look at it."

    2nd_ave -- wasn't it you who taught us that in every crisis there is an opportunity, and a lateral move can always be used to take advantage of any unexpected sell-off? If you stay in blue chips, then a 15% sell-off in them will imply a 50% sell-off in TCK -- wouldn't that be a one heck of an opportunity? So in effect, the best thing you can hope for is to have your blue chip position drop by 20%...

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  8. illiniMay 16, 2011 at 7:16 PM

    My Stops & Targets computer algo went into Bear 1 today on all 3 major indices. Thats the first phase of a new downtrend in an extended bull market. Naz is the worst with even a long term sell partials signal now. I may lighten up on tech even as I went big into MSFT as it approached 25. Today it slashed through.

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  9. MarkWMay 16, 2011 at 7:38 PM

    Thanks for the MITK info Illini.

    Have to admit, the overall market looks ripe for a serious correction. Must mean we rally.

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  10. MarkWMay 16, 2011 at 7:41 PM

    1310ish looks like a critical area.

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  11. RoBearMay 16, 2011 at 8:07 PM

    HP Number one malware provider. Why does their EFen printer need to update everday and way does it freeze my Efen vista and why does it not go away when I uninstall it. I HATE HP!!!!!!

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  12. illiniMay 16, 2011 at 8:26 PM

    RB- I have an older HP as my main, Win XP/Celeron. No prob for 8 years and no prob with 3-way HP printer for 5 years.

    ReplyDelete
  13. MarkWMay 16, 2011 at 8:27 PM

    RB- Sing it sister!!!

    On a troubling note, things look really rough in Syria. GL to those brave souls standing up...

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  14. illiniMay 16, 2011 at 8:29 PM

    But I bought a Dell laptop recently as my second computer even though I am pretty much a fixed base operator. It's nicer.

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  15. illiniMay 16, 2011 at 8:34 PM

    FWIT, S&T has 1321 as a critical/magnet point for both the Short and IT.

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  16. teamonfuegoMay 16, 2011 at 8:50 PM

    Easy illini (on mitk)...keep in mind a few things:
    (1) "core" deposit revs grew 130% last quarter and they reported earnings of $570k in q1...I don't see tisa doing that
    (2) mitk has just a slight headstart on tisa with 5 of top 10 banks signed on and with patent protection in us (tisa is in israel)
    (3) speaking of israel...they don't have much of a check market there
    (4) set up and testing period for check deposit takes a year or so...the banks that have signed on to mitk did a lot of testing before signing on...even chase tried doing it on its own before settling with mitk.
    (5) we have no idea if mitk will go after tisa or even if tisa's offering works nearly as well as mitk's.

    For now I'll keep an eye on tisa but my projections of a $1 Billion+ mkt cap assumed:
    (1) check deposit mkt grows to 25% smaller than analyst projections
    (2) mitk garners a 50% mkt shr (currently 100%)
    (3) mitk gets nothing from its mobile bill pay or any other offering.

    It will be interesting few months for mitk as it gets listed to the Naz, announces its next big signing (hinted at on last qtrly conf call) and begins signing on bill pay customers.

    ReplyDelete
  17. illiniMay 16, 2011 at 9:03 PM

    TF... Congrats man. You've done a lot of homework.

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  18. ChickenpookieMay 16, 2011 at 9:31 PM

    Large Caps vs metal miners/natural resources -

    Well, don't natural resources equities usually bottom prior to large caps? The bloodbath continues at a frantic pace in the sector... Not so many folks calling Bernanke a fool anymore either, I notice...

    Although, I can't help but think we're witnessing a temporary pullback that's just gotten ridiculous, more selling seems to lead to even more of the same thing, all of which started long before the dollar hit bottom and bounced. Almost seems like seasonal weakness on steroids.

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  19. RoBearMay 16, 2011 at 9:40 PM

    MOMO is leaving Arizona. I wonder if this is a precurser for MOMO leaving the market.

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  20. teamonfuegoMay 16, 2011 at 9:48 PM

    Illini > gotta do a lot of what ifs before dumping a boatload into a stock...only way to sleep well at night.

    Rb > another cryptic message...still trying to decipher the meaning of MOMO leaving az...

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  21. ChickenpookieMay 16, 2011 at 10:00 PM

    RIG - Kinda looks good here...

    ReplyDelete
  22. Telestar3dMay 16, 2011 at 10:00 PM

    David said, 'Joe -- let's say that we want ECUXF to make a closing print above $2.25 before the end of 2012.

    Deal David and sealed with a cyber handshake. I'm a person of integrity and will fulfill my end of the deal with the devil. HA HA

    I see your wanting to leverage our Nadurra bottles with TOF, ah, always the trader.

    t3d

    ReplyDelete
  23. Telestar3dMay 16, 2011 at 10:03 PM

    Here is a good book on Futures Trading, same for stocks that can be had on the cheap.

    the link:
    http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=155738-149-6&x=0&y=0

    Chapter 2, On Discipline

    Chapter 3, 21 tools for successful trading

    are worth the price of the book. t3d

    ReplyDelete
  24. ChickenpookieMay 16, 2011 at 10:25 PM

    "stocks that can be had on the cheap."

    We trade prices, right? What more discipline can be had, LOL?

    ReplyDelete
  25. 2nd_aveMay 17, 2011 at 3:48 AM

    new post

    ReplyDelete

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