Tuesday, May 17, 2011
05/17/11 The DELL Prophecies
I turned the corner and beheld the Mothman. He be singing in the alley way, his voice trailing off in the shadows.
The harbinger be Dell
The harbinger be Dell
Hi-ho, the derry-o
Don't be ----ing with Wintel
The appearance of the Dell Mothman foretells disaster for sector shorts.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mothman_Prophecies_(film)
If DELL can rock 45% in eight months, why not CSCO/HPQ/INTC/MSFT? Didn't all four of these companies last top out in 2000?
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
I spoke on the phone today with Dwight Walker, ECU's CFO, and asked him why their working capital was negative 11M at the end of 2010. He said that ECU customarily gets advances from the customer to whom they sell their gold/silver bars, and they pay off those advances later with delivery of gold/silver. These advances count as near term liabilities, and so it is natural for ECU to have a negative working capital (current assets minus near-term liabilities).
ReplyDeleteHowever, he confirmed what their investor rep told me a few weeks ago about ECU not planning to raise any cash in the near future and about them being careful to keep their exploration program within the cashflow provided by their current production.
Now tell me, guys -- how can you possibly go wrong with such a plan? The company keeps expanding their resource base, the price of gold/silver is in an obvious long-term uptrend, so how can this stock not possible triple by the end of 2012?
David, that's too funny, I was thinking about doing that hedge just today regarding the Naduura caper. I want to see if it holds the 4ths .6590 low which it did with gusto today, nice sign. When the markets get turbulent like the metals have been lately, I'm happy not to be first. There was a lot of forced selling when the CME had multiple margin raises. Most likely will do at some point.
ReplyDeleteAbout 10% of my net worth is in commodities now, but not the agriculture side which is what I'm interested in building up. Regardless of all the ups and down this is a fascinating business.
BTW, I find Grantham such a pleasure to read and look forward to cyber drinking Naduura with everyone Jan 2013 regardless of the outcome.
David, you certainly have a ton of conviction and make a great case.
ReplyDeleteHowever, weird stuff can happen with respect to stocks. Just look at all china small caps and what is going on with YHOO and Alibaba.
If everything you say comes to fruition, you will get your triple and most likely more, I'm just betting that your 31 DEC 2012 timing is wrong. Who knows!
Good Luck to us both and I can get Naduura and than later you your triple.
Cyber drinking- yes, that concept was invented on this very blog.
ReplyDeleteAlso the cyber hangover, the cyber cell, and soon the cyber prison food fight.
ReplyDeleteBEXP is presenting at 2 conferences over the next 2 days. So, event risk is in play. I suspect they will also adjust their production #'s to account for the recent increase in land holdings and capx increase.
ReplyDeleteHowever, APA today said they were increasing their 11/12 capx by 8% and said they were sticking to their production estimates.
RAS- Does anyone care about this pig?
ReplyDeleteDeclares .02 common divy and announces a 3-1 reverse split.
BB- Maybe if you have time, perhaps over a glass of wine, can you explain how you invest/trade? I never really go to CC anymore.
ReplyDeleteFor me, I usually trade in energy names. Ideally, I'd like to have 5-6 positions on at a time. I leg into trades in 15K/30K/45K per position. Mostly swing trades looking for 15-25%. I will average down. In fact, my best trades usually turn out that way.
Right now is a little strange for me, as I only have 2 positions on at a time. 8K shares of BEXP and 20K shares of MITK.
Holly cow, how's this for lucky. I've made 23 trades in my IRA this year and not a single loser!
ReplyDeleteNot so for my trading account, but damn, at least I get to book those loses!
PM miners - seem to be showing initial signs of a reversal? Oilers looking slightly better following the beating...?
ReplyDeleteLooks like that whack job in Iran has taken over their oil industry and has his sights set on OPEC. I wonder if this will help USA land based drillers? :)
ReplyDeleteDavid, since you asked what could go wrong with this plan, I'll throw a few out there. I am a bit concerned about your risk management, but you sound like you are comfortable with it, so hope it works out for you.
ReplyDelete1. Market crash a la 2009, nothing was safe in that (take a look at New Gold fell under $1.00).
2. Turns out Silver really is just in a bubble and forced ETF selling drives the price of Silver back under $10.
3. Environmental, indigenous people issues prevent the mine from being built (look at Taseko).
4. Government changes and rules change.
5. Reduction in the ability for junior miners to obtain financing in the market requiring large dilution (ask Amerigo about the terms they got in 2009 when they had to raise money in early 2009 because the generator they bought did not work).
6. Silver mines are difficult to build cost-effectively and to run (take a look at MineFinders - they also have a good silver deposit, but constantly miss production).
7. If they don't get taken out, mining stocks will often fall significantly during the period they are building the mine, but not producing ore as their costs are high with no revenues - this can last few years in the worst case.
Anyhow, good luck with this. I don't know enough about ECU specifically to comment, but I have seen really good companies have share prices go through long periods before the value is recognized.
Gold:silver ratio - Back to a more reasonable 43.67, hopefully if they move, they'll move together and along with miners and energy/producers for a more sustainable rally. I guess traders may have realized the dollar has tested and failed to recapture 76.
ReplyDelete$ fall continues AH to 75.43.
ReplyDeleteTook the day off and saw the reversal bar on the Nasdaq. I was expecting to see a ton of hammers/reversals on my watch list. I just scrolled through 60 or so stocks and it looks like a bloodbath. Nothing seems to be screaming buy which is very odd given the selloff and today's reversal.
ReplyDeleteMy guess is we get a little bump up the next day or two and then its anybody's guess.
Still zero fear in this market. Typically, you want to see a big spike in the VIX to signal an all clear to re-enter on the long side. The VIX is still a very low 17.55.
As I said all weekend, my gut tells me that this could be the start of something big. In that light, I will be treading very carefully.
Jesse- Mine were mixed to slightly positive. About 100.
ReplyDeleteRon Paul says "Sell the Fort Knox gold"
ReplyDelete"NEW YORK — The next big question on the federal debt limit could be whether to start selling the government’s holdings of gold at Fort Knox — and at least one presidential contender, Ron Paul, has told The New York Sun he thinks it would be a good move."
http://www.nysun.com/national/selling-gold-at-fort-knox-emerges-as-next-big/87350/
GMO - Volume support from March 2007 @ $4.00
ReplyDeleteBB, excellent points on what could go wrong. Murphy's law shows up more then I care to remember.
ReplyDeleteThus Risk Management is my guide and everyone has to decide their own range tolerance, but the larger the loss the more mathematics will work against you.
Risk Management
% Loss of % Gain on Balance
Initial Capital Required to Recover
05 5.3
10 11.1
15 17.6
20 25.0
25 33.3
30 42.9
35 53.8
40 66.7
45 81.8
50 100.0
55 122.0
60 150.0
65 186.0
70 233.0
75 300.0
80 400.0
85 567.0
90 900.0
Potential for gold downside? The 144 SMA has been the support level from the $700 area.
ReplyDeleteLearn from every loss. Losses are tuition. They are expensive and they must be good for something. The something to which I am referring is, of course, learning. Learn from each loss and do you’re very best to avoid taking he same loss twice or more for the same reason. Do not repeat the same errors. To do so indicates that that your discipline in not improving.
ReplyDeleteFrom High Performance Futures Trading.
BB, let me see if I can address your points.
ReplyDelete> 1. Market crash a la 2009, nothing was safe in > that (take a look at New Gold fell under
> $1.00).
My point exactly! Look at what happened to New Gold after that. I believe we are at a the low point now, and ECUXF will go up many X now.
> 2. Turns out Silver really is just in a bubble > and forced ETF selling drives the price of
> Silver back under $10.
If gold would be at $700 now, then a fair value for silver would be $10. But with gold at $1500, the fair value for silver is somewhere above $30, which is the level at which its collapse has stalled. I believe we have seen the bottom of the silver pullback.
> 3. Environmental, indigenous people issues
> prevent the mine from being built (look at
> Taseko).
That could be the case for NOT.V, which found a lot of nickel on indigenous land. ECU is operating on its own land in Mexico and already has 4 producing mines.
4. Government changes and rules change.
Low probability of that happening in Mexico.
5. Reduction in the ability for junior miners to obtain financing in the market requiring large dilution (ask Amerigo about the terms they got in 2009 when they had to raise money in early 2009 because the generator they bought did not work).
That's why I didn't invest all my money into some junior explorer that is still not able to fund its own exploration. ECU, on the other hand, IS already funding its own exploration and does not depend on the credit market.
6. Silver mines are difficult to build cost-effectively and to run (take a look at MineFinders - they also have a good silver deposit, but constantly miss production).
ECU already has 4 producing mines.
7. If they don't get taken out, mining stocks will often fall significantly during the period they are building the mine, but not producing ore as their costs are high with no revenues - this can last few years in the worst case.
My worst nightmare is that ECU *does* get taken out now at $1, before it has the chance to appreciate above $5. However, their CFO told me today that they have a fairly large concentration of shares in the hands of a few shareholders who also want to see ECU at multi-dollar price and will not settle for a $1 or $2 offer.
joe - I recommend keeping your losses smaller than your gains, as a general rule.
ReplyDelete"Learn from every loss. Losses are tuition."
ReplyDeleteThe lesson I learned from my losses in 2008 (my port was down 75%) is that miners can collapse 90% (my position in UXG collapsed from $5 in 2007 to $0.5 as I was buying it on the way down) and then spring back up to the previous level (I finished scaling out of UXG at $5 in 2010). That is, I learned that every collapse in the miners should be bought. I am operating on the same premise now, which is to say that I don't want to bet on this long-term phenomenon reversing. Especially in the light of the recent commentary by Jeremy Grantham, who made a good case about the commodity run since 2002 being not just a small bull market, but a reversal of a 100 year trend, with the new trend likely to be around FOREVER, since commodities are in a limited and get steadily exhausted. Our civilization is in an exponential growth, and hence it MUST run out of anything that is in a finite supply.
UXG - Probably should've bought some today but this time around I thought it prudent to switch from something that China is less likely to screw around with, BEXP. I guess this decision was made several days ago as PM's began sinking along with energy producers, I thought a slight change of diet was in order.
ReplyDeleteKinda looks like the PM pullback is overwith David, you may not have a chance to take on debt to buy more ECU.
ReplyDeleteI will say that nothing usually lasts forever. Suppose something that no can foresee happens on earth and 2 billion people die off rapidly. If such an event occurred, what is the probability that agriculture commodities would maintain their current price?
ReplyDeleteVery theoretical I know but not impossible.
Averaging down works for you and your personality, great. Personally, I could never be comfortable with such a strategy, but it does not matter its not my strategy. Knowing one's self is a very under rated skill when trading/investing.
MITK, the nice thing here is that the last few days I can now see the bid/ask and it seems to have absorbed that large block weel.
large block well
ReplyDelete"Kinda looks like the PM pullback is over with David, you may not have a chance to take on debt to buy more ECU."
ReplyDeleteThe index futures are green for a change now. Well, I did pick up 23000 shares of ECUXF at the average price of $0.72 during this pullback and also bought 2000 shares of GMO at the average price of $4.10, which I consider to be a pretty good "catch." I might actually get some of my "own" cash for investing after Friday's OpEx, since I am short some May puts that may expire.
One curious situation I am facing is with 10 WATG $5 puts, which I sold a month ago for $0.5. WATG's trading was halted at $5.42, and if the halt stays on until Friday, then these puts should expire automatically, right? At least something good came out of this mess. :)
TRP - Meanwhile this one has been kicking ass while I've been screwing off trying to pick a bottom in PM's. Sheesh, I could'a been riding TRP while watching PM's get crushed then switched over today....
ReplyDeleteGoodnight guys, I need some beauty sleep. ;)
ReplyDeleteDavid,
ReplyDelete"That is, I learned that every collapse in the miners should be bought."
> That is what tech investors said in 2000 as well.
"Especially in the light of the recent commentary by Jeremy Grantham, who made a good case about the commodity run since 2002 being not just a small bull market, but a reversal of a 100 year trend, with the new trend likely to be around FOREVER, since commodities are in a limited and get steadily exhausted."
> These types of comments tend to occur closer to the end than the start of a bull run. Again, look back at all the "this is different" comments from the tech bubble.
David, you are probably right about ECU and it sounds like you've done a lot of work on it. I checked TD and they have a 12 month price of $1.50 on it based on a valuation of $1.25 per ounce in the ground, but surprisingly, rate it a hold.
From my personal experience, when I feel so confident about something I want to put all my money into it, I've usually missed something that is keeping the stock down.
Not much news I can find on the stuff we look at.
ReplyDeleteBB - Nice perspective, it's always wise to consider every facet closely in addition to color and clarity of the stone before plunking down your hard earned money.
ReplyDeleteBecause the story can change when stuff happens!
The one big thing we should be concerned with at the moment is the european debt situation, unfortunately my only proxy is the U$D, LOL!
ReplyDeleteStaples earnings sucked, was down 16%...
CP - did you pick up Dell yesterday AH? Shows how little I know - I listen to the call, spend time learning their biz model, watch the CFO interview this a.m. and I am CERTAIN that their stock will tank....NOT
ReplyDeleteSilver - The important line in the sand is 34.48
ReplyDeletetrading futes this a.m
ReplyDeleteshort es 25.50...looking at the cl now that the n contract has vol, but no trades yet
1/3 off at 24.50
ReplyDeletestop to be
ReplyDeleteout on balance at be, moved my stop up too fast
ReplyDeleteDELL - JB - Well no, I didn't buy b/c it looked toppy to me. I've seen so many stocks run into earnings and peek on the news only to sell off the next regular session.
ReplyDeleteIt's a very common pattern I'm sure you've witnessed many times as well.
Sometimes the stock can continue higher but it's not typical I think, and there are so many other pressures right now I'd bet the majority will want to take their profits.
Hopefully you bought early enough in the game a buy and hold strategy can work for you, stocks go up and down b/c they have to.
I still have my core position in GMO for instance, b/c I don't want to miss out on the story that IMO will take it well into the teens.
I do like DELL though, I always wanted to buy some on a huge dip and ride it to new heights like so many folks did in the nineties. I had neighbors in Austin that paid their homes off that way...
ReplyDeleteFor anyone interested in a speculative, good value fertilizer stock, added to my position in MBAC Fertilizer today (MBC in Toronto or MBCFF.PK).
ReplyDeleteThis is an up and coming fertilizer producer located in Brazil very close to the main agricultural region. There big advantage is lower transportation costs compared to the imports. Also, there is discussion of government legislation in Brazil to help grow this industry.
They have a small producing mine now, just recently increased their reserves with drilling completion and have government approval for construction and are ordering equipment. They also have other sites which may provide increased value.
It was founded by the Chairman of Yamana Gold and has a good management team.
It's net asset value using a 10% discount rate is $4.34 based on $275 SSP pricing and SSP is currently selling for $375 a tonne in the region with no value for these additional sites.
Planned production is for 500,000t in mid-2012 and doubling this over a few years.
It's an execution story at this time and all the risks around getting a plant up and running are in play, but there is a big enough spread between stock price and value to absorb some of these, so I feel confident owning.
BB- Interesting, thanks! Does it trade with any volume in .TO ?
ReplyDeleteMarkW, Not tons, about 100K or 200K a day - lots for me for the volumes I purchase, but be tough to buy a million shares.
ReplyDeleteChickenpookie - like TRP as well. It's put away in my retirement account and plan to keep it there for a long time. Good yield, strong growth profile, really good project managers and cost control.
MBC.TO - According to Yahoo, average volume in Toronto is 122k shares.
ReplyDeleteDoesn't mean it can't increase at a rapid clip though, plays like this are the ones that can make fortunes?
BEXP, brings a smile to Mark's face.
ReplyDeleteMBCFF on watch list.
MBCFF- No bid/ask showing and it only trades about 5K shares a day. Shoot.
ReplyDeleteBB- What would be a good entry price here (in US$'s). The last trade .PK is 2.64.
Bullish crude inventory report in my opinion. Especially distillates.
ReplyDeleteJoe- Damn right! Was very comfortable in this trade, but never though for a minute it would go green for me today. Actually, kinda makes me nervous.
ReplyDeleteCREE get's down graded yesterday and sells off about 3%. Today it's up 6.8%. Crazy.
ReplyDeleteBEXP - I want to see this thing move quickly past a 30% gain on it's way to better than 60%.
ReplyDeleteEnergy is one of those commodities that will always have demand, I figure it's about time I quit ignoring it and just get involved...
MBC.TO
ReplyDeleteYr high 3.54
Yr low 1.45
10 day vol 7307
90 day vol 9300
so obviously trades thin, todays vol 39,700 with one block trade of 28500
at least this is what Fido shows.
I'd check the bid / ask in Toronto which is $2.73 - $2.75 now, then with the exchange rate, that is @2.81 - $2.83.
ReplyDeleteDidn't realize it was a grey market. Usually you can get the US bid / ask on http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/MBCFF/quote but grey market stocks don't have bid / ask.
Joe,
ReplyDeletethose volumes must be in hundreds. 3 of last 4 days have been over 250,000 share.
There is currently 5,100 available at $2.75.
I guess there's no way to post images in here - I could do a screen print of the level 2 quote and paste.
I got to leave before I sell BEXP.
ReplyDeleteCiao.
BB- You can post screen shots with Jing. It's free and I use it all the time.
ReplyDeleteL8ter.
BB, thanks, must be bad data.
ReplyDeleteFidelity is not really set-up for Canadian exchanges though you can get quotes. It does show another block trade at 28,900 though.
I generally do not like being in the dark, but interesting sector. Thanks.
TRP - I need to perform some DD.
ReplyDeleteTRP - In looking at the daily chart I notice a peak occurred on May 2. This is the same day my algo put out top spotter signals for all three major indices. Just a warning sign that has predicted pullbacks in the past and which is a target to overcome. No position on TRP.
ReplyDeleteWell, copper is flying so far, steelers doing well too.
ReplyDeleteNow if they can just refrain from getting too far ahead of gold, we have something sustainable...?
illini - Agreed TRP chart looks a little toppy, I was thinking I need to read up on their proposed pipeline and how that fits into transporting Canadian oil sands crude to Texas refineries.
ReplyDeleteThere may or may not be something in the works but if there is and it's approved/financed and otherwise given the official governmental finger of approval, it could be a game changer?
All I think I know at this point is they own some lines and have proposed some more, that's the extent of my knowledge.... not good enough to buy, obviously. Maybe I'll dig into it this week.
GPL - Gapped up, expecting that must close...
ReplyDeleteFor those of us CSCO fans here is a posting I saw on SeekingAlpha from last Thursday:
ReplyDelete"Cisco (CSCO -4.6%) suffers several downgrades, but some analysts raise EPS estimates on cost-cutting plans even as they take down their revenue outlook for this year and next. Gleacher, for one, calls Cisco “a tanker ship that will require multiple quarters to fix its long-term financial model," boasting “some of the most attractive secular growth opportunities" in the IT industry. "
With the stock getting hammered again today, let us hope we will all be laughing about this valuation a year from now..
MITK looking good.
ReplyDeleteMITK sets new high on no news in particular. $6.99.
ReplyDeleteDamn, look at NOGer...
ReplyDeleteAnd if MITK can hold these levels, watch out. Great call on this one TOF!
Even HEK and RENN are rocking today.
ReplyDeleteMITK- The # we want to hold is 6.75 obviously.
ReplyDeleteMITK volume is over 20 times average daily already.
ReplyDeleteVE - Ex-div.
ReplyDeletei didn't realize that Oberweis is invested in MITK and that they upped their stake by 140% last quarter. Oberweis is a blue chip asset manager. I just took a look at their new investments and two of them look really good:
ReplyDeleteIMRS
BODY
Re TRP from BMO:
ReplyDeleteWe reiterate our OUTPERFORM on an A rated name that is providing a 4.1% yield with long-term dividend growth of 5%-7%. By 2013 we see TRP generating free cash flow of more than $3 billion before dividends, translating to an 11.5% FCF yield. An 8%-9% range more indicative of its peers implies two-year upside to C$50 or better.
TRP also recently said they may increase their dividends faster than 5% - 7% as they don't have a lot of capital requirements for the next few years.
Good article on why copper prices fundamentally will be rising over the next few months in Globe and Mail. Even calls it "very exciting time for LME copper prices" if that's your idea of a good time.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/features/eye-on-equities/a-happy-summer-predicted-for-copper-bulls/article2026767/
Pisani- "There's a substantial group of people, a small group..."
ReplyDeleteGlowing report on TRP. I can see why you hold it as a keeper.
ReplyDeleteDollar jumped, which one of you guys just went to cash?
ReplyDeletei can't help but get the sense that they're trying their hardest to keep the lid on MITK while the bigger boys load up on it.
ReplyDeleteRemember, after the minutes there is a counter move that proves to be a trap.
ReplyDelete"the minutes"
ReplyDeleteMinutes? Yes counter moves are common but who's minutes? I bet you mean FED minutes?
"Wall Street, commodities higher after Fed minutes"
ReplyDeleteAlright, it seems this headline is worng, but not knowing when the minutes were released it's hard to pinpoint.
That's what I get for not having the radio on I suppose...
150,000 share trade in MITK @ 7.09.
ReplyDeleteCP- There was a little pop right after the minutes. Released @ 11:10 my time.
ReplyDeleteYes, higher copper would make my summer assuming the price were justified.
ReplyDeleteI'm guessing China buys base metals in spurts for storage apparently and using my imaginary superpowers I've determined they go on bear raid campaigns just prior to buying.
Pop after minutes? - Hmm, I thought commodities were moving up until 11:10PT when the dollar pole vaulted. So the fake move was dollar up, I'm gonna say.
ReplyDelete"Storage" = "Stockpiling" in above passage.
ReplyDeleteMark - It sure seems to me like big boys are accumulating this.
ReplyDeleteYep, copper looks good here.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Could be. I wonder how those block trades take place. My guess is out of the MM's inventory. They are obviously arranged.
ReplyDeleteyeah i have no idea...seems odd to me that they could just pass through a huge chunk without moving the price....same thing happened two days ago with the 2 million share block at $5.7. that had to have been pre-arranged. i think the thornton insider guy wanted out. he and his wife owned like 4.5 million shs so maybe he just cut half of his holdings.
ReplyDeleteWhose thorton?
ReplyDeletethornton was the largest holder of the stock...he and his wife owned like 20% of the stock. i think he loaned them a bunch when they were down and out....its in the SEC filings Mark...you know...the ones you SHOULD be reading instead of the car and chick mags.
ReplyDeleteMark - Have you checked out the July swimsuit issue yet? Sssssooooooowwwwwwwweeeeeeee!!!!
ReplyDeleteMITK.OB - So someone front-run the large block trades, huh? Not surprising!
ReplyDeleteWell, commodities did manage to move up a little today, perhaps the global economy isn't completely dead in the water after all??
ReplyDeletei'm back from vacation....gap and go on the indexes tomorrow is my take...to much hype surrounding IPOs like LinkedIn, which is a long term winner. think about all of the big private companies out there in tech land.
ReplyDeletehey guys- I may have asked this before but does anyone use TOS (owned by tdameritrade now). Now that I've been canned I've got plenty of time to consolidate on a single platform/broker...I have crap with vanguard, fidelity, american funds, infinity, apex, and I think a couple others.
ReplyDeletedoes anyone feel that going to a single source is a bad idea? I have toyed with going to three - one for stocks/etf's and all retirement funds, then one for options (like options house) and stay with Infinity for futures.
man, I've got way too much time on my hands, and it's only been three days
JB - You'll get used to it but try not to. I don't recommend BACML (Merryl Lynch) for anything.
ReplyDeleteAnother commodities thought; wonder if next week will be "Peek Everything" week?
CP - pretty sure Mrs JB won't be letting me get comfortable!
ReplyDeleteGM to produce 60K Volts?
ReplyDeleteJB. Sounds like you need IB. You can segregate accounts, but see them on one platform. IRAs ect. Their trading platform is too complicated for me. So I use a third party called Sierra charts. You can trade right off the chart flawlessly.. cost 25 month extra. Futures are 6 bucks round trip per contract. stocks are .005 cents a share. One advantage for the coming downturn is they have a huge short book. I can short a lot of stocks that no one else can. THe reason I moved over is so I could short the VXX. Which many brokers will not even let you do. I think If I ever moved it would be to Options House. I believe Dave is with them. He did have problem buying penny stocks with them. I think they had huge fees on penny stocks. Actually IB would get spendy on penny stocks also at a per share price.
ReplyDeleteThx RB! I'll check them out.
ReplyDeleteCongratulations, TOF, on your MITK call! You should have accepted my offer yesterday to bet a bottle of Nadurra if MITK rises above $20 before the end of 2012. Now I am not so sure I want to bet against it actually happening. :)
ReplyDeleteIB is a great platform. Like RB, I hated it (ok,couldn't figure it out), but otherwise a good choice.
ReplyDeleteJB - I have been with one broker (Scottrade) for many years although for the last 10 years with three accounts (1 is JT/son and another for a grandchild). If you want to simplify your life I would recommend one broker/one account. However, Scottrade alone will not be enough for everyone, although they are flat cheap at $7 for any amount of shares. The reason is they do not have the full spectrum of option trading (can't sell puts like BC likes to do, unless you open an account with their affiliate ...Options Express I think). Also, no foreign exchanges available, even Canada. These limitations do not bother me since I do plain vanilla stock picking on US exchanges. Scottrade even opened an office in Peoria, IL recently...where I live. Now I can deposit/withdraw $ more easily.
ReplyDeleteDavid - I don't like stealing candy from babies
ReplyDelete:)
CAAS keeps going down, even in a happy market like today... Looks like the market is determined to get the $7.50 puts "in the money" by Friday. Well, if that happens, then I might just hold onto those shares (my cost basis would be $7.10). In fact, I am more worried about this not happening. So I just placed a buy limit order for 10 November $7.50 calls on CAAS at $1.75. I do want to have an unlimited upside exposure to CAAS.
ReplyDeleteValue investing in Chinese small caps is really only for the toughest investors. As Bill pointed out, the bull/bear markets in these stocks do not coincide with general economic cycles (Chinese stocks were in a bear market for the whole of 2007 even though the world economy was booming). I suspect that now we are seeing yet another extreme washout of speculators and weak hands in these Chinese stocks.
TF - MITK is volatile. Aren't you tempted to trade a bit?
ReplyDeleteThanks illini!
ReplyDeleteToday I sold partials of BTU...at a loss. My position was too large, 20% of port. Original position was established only 7 days ago and it's been downhill all the way, big time. BTU follows oil in going down. It's a great company but behaves like a yo-yo, especially intra day.
ReplyDeleteGuess 2nd has been in solitary confinement since yesterday morning. Hope he has access to a laptop soon. Do they have Wi-Fi in solitary?
ReplyDeleteBTU - 5/21 MP is $65, FWIW. Bounced off the 200SMA and began moving up.
ReplyDeleteANR - There's a January gap down (~$62) that needs to fill, 5/21 MP is $52.5
Investments may lose value...