That's a good video of a song I was crazy about in 1956. I remember high school buddies wearing blue suede shoes. I may have had a pair myself but memory is fading. It was a fad.
Video was 1968. Elvis still intact. The young girls clapping around the square would be over 40. Wondering what they think now.
Illini - saw your post about trading MITK...why bother trying to time it at this point? I think it gets to $35 ($1 Billion mkt cap) either organically or through a buyout. If Mobile Bill Pay takes off then all bets are off.
On a related note Paypal just added their mobile banking app through Android: http://www.intomobile.com/2011/05/18/paypal-android-app-lets-you-deposit-checks-snapping-picture/
I just downloaded it and deposited 2 checks...talk about easy. It took longer to download the app than to deposit the checks.
The only good thing about the Sharks getting blown out is that my old boss and ops guy, both huge Van fans, got canned too so they won't be in my face much!
Good readings from Investors Intelligence - the ratio of bulls fell to 46% - hasn't been under 50% since November.
And we are only SPY down 1.2% from yearly highs. Now to be fair, I'm not sure what day the survey was done and we were down 5.5% at the recent lows, but even that was still up 5.8% for the year.
Seems like we are recharging for another move higher.
For any patient, value investors out there, the insurance companies may have had a bit of a push forward yesterday when White Mountains Insurance (WTM) sold their online insurance business to Allstate for about $1 billion and the stock was up 15%. They are still the cheapest industry out there and worth investing in with your more conservative money.
My favourite insurance stock now is National Western Life (NWLI). It is a Texas based life insurer who sells a lot of policies internationally (so broad revenue streams and not just tied to US). It is trading at 45% of book value and P/E of 7.5. Profitable through each year in the downturn, very conservatively run. Only knock against it is management is not concerned about the share price and just builds the business and figures the share price will eventually follow. Main shareholder and CEO is 75 years old, so when he moves on, perhaps this will change.
Regardless, during the last bull market, it generally traded traded between 80% and 90% of book and got over 100% a few times, so a double over the next 2 - 3 years is very likely.
Won't do as well as MITK or ECUXF if they take off the way posters here expect, but much safer in my opinion and very good upside.
NWLI is the type of stock stock I really like - ignored by everyone else. You can add a lot of upside to your portfolio if you spend the time to find these underfollowed, undervalued stocks and are patient - way too many people just play the S&P 500 or ETF's and the bargains are in the other 90% of the market.
By the way, iIf you are one of the people playing commodity stocks on the board, you really should get a broker with access to the TSX. The TSX is leading market in the world for the smaller miner / energy companies. I've bought Brazil fertilizer, french metal drilling, Egyptian natural gas, Australian Nickel, Portuguese Copper, Columbian coal, all in Canada with standard financial rules and no pink sheets.
"the bargains are in the other 90% of the market."
Agreed, which is one reason I began trading CADC until the Chinese reverse mergers blew up. I still believe in CADC but the VIE corporate structure (Variable Interest Entity) these guys are forced to adopt to get around Chinese foreign ownership laws is killing them, not to mention the temptation to raid the corporate treasury and run. I guess China doesn't want hot money flowing in and out of their economy and so the VIE structure. Their free trade monkey business games are what's gotten us into this mess.
Broker - My original goal was only to buy a few stocks and ride them up but I discovered up isn't always up. ;)
JB - Looks like Mark added 700 more BEXP with the intention of bringing gains in excess of $1k with him to Madera. I figure he ought to have in excess of ~$1140 in his pocket. ;)
2nd - It seems you may be correct about the end of the dip this time. Prices appear to be putting in a bottom as RSI's have landed and seat backs are returned to the upright position. ;)
TF - Just read the Pay Pal story you linked to and followed a link which led me to another mobile deposit announcement from last year. Doesn't this all mean that MITK is going to have a lot of competition in a very fragmented market? How do you see the situation/competititive position of MITK now.
I'd buy a couple of goats and a Sears shed for them to hang out in. Their life span is approximately the same and mowing will be a chore you won't be saddled with for the duration. If/when you get tired of them for some reason, just hang a "Cabrito" sign out front.
Heck, there may even be enough left over for new bicycle tires, there would be in the case of my old Schwinn...
Illini - Bankserv and Paypal are MITK customers. MITK doesn't have a monopoly on the technology but they have the lions share of the market already with JPM, BAC, USB, PNC, COF, Paypal, USAA and others already signed on.
I have to admit, in looking at all of the energy plays I follow, BEXP is holding up well. That reason alone was enough for me to cash in my trading chips.
Any gold/silver bugs got a feel for SVM? Looks like a reversal candidate.
I'm a little hesitant to buy it as all previous silver blowouts have hit their 200 days before marching higher. Silver's 200 is at 29.08 at the moment...
Today's close ends my 2 day reprieve from the selling. If this is the start of something bigger to the downside, it should re-assert itself tomorrow w/ more selling.
I will be much more comfortable going long above today's highs. Semiconductors are slowly breaking down out of a 4 month bullish pennant that I've had my eyes on for awhile.
CAAS issued a press release this morning saying that they DID provide a plan to NASDAQ on May 13 about how they will regain compliance with NASDAQ rules. They jumped 5% today, and my buy limit order for 10 November 2011 calls at $1.75 did not get executed. But then, it is obvious that the 20 May $7.50 puts I shorted will also expire tomorrow, and so in order to have an unlimited upside in CAAS I just went ahead and bought 10 November $7.50 calls at $2.10. CAAS also said in their press release that they are planning to finish restating their earnings for 2010 and first have of 2011 by June 2011, so that gives plenty of time for my November calls to go up 5X (if CAAS rises to $18).
Just bought 1000 more shares of GMO at $4.02, for a total of 4000 shares. I also have 20 short puts, which are in the money now and so will give me additional 2000 shares if GMO stays in place. While I was reluctant to add to GMO above $5, at $4 GMO is a great buy.
You know, I'm not really sure how Schwab calculates Daily $ change and Daily realized $'s. Something seems off, but according to the actual transaction record, the $'s booked on BEXP are as posted. Not that it matters anyway.
My buy limit order for 10 November $10 calls for CAAS at $1.10 just got filled. So if CAAS rises to $17 by November OpEx, then I should recoup a good chunk of the money I put into WATG so far.
"David- When the hell are you going to run out of money to invest? :)"
I know, I know. :) I found a few K to invest now because I am assuming that my May short puts on CAAS will expire, and so I don't need to back up those puts with cash anymore. Also, if WATG doesn't start trading by tomorrow, then the $5 puts I shorted on WATG will also expire automatically. So there WAS some benefit to the WATG trading halt. :)
"David- When the hell are you going to run out of money to invest? :)"
Also, as you have probably noticed, Mark, I am adding to my positions in VERY small lots. I learned during the 2008 crash that amazing deals can become super amazing, and then super super amazing. Hence, not going all in at once is the key to catching the bottom of small and volatile stocks.
Illini - They're buying it up man. People are slowly but surely catching on to the story. Hopefully mobile deposit gets adopted faster than analysts expect so it surprises even us.
Gold - Well I guess gold did reach my July 4th $1570 target in advance, a couple of months early:
"Accelerating inflation, Europe’s debt crisis, a weakening dollar and unrest in north Africa and the Middle East boosted gold to a record $1,577.57 an ounce on May 2."
Re: "That's one IPO I'll be shorting..." new Submitted by teamonfuego (2422 comments) on Thu, 05/19/2011 - 19:15 #86175 (in reply to #86169)
Nebish - I totally agree and this is just one of the many reasons why I'm so bullish on this market. Many more private internet companies are lining up to go public, which will continue to drive the animal spirits higher. And the best part is valuations really aren't expensive at all. I know margins are on the higher end of the spectrum, but companies are much more tentative now to hire than in the past, which should keep margins higher for a good deal longer. So trading at 13-14 times earnings for the entire market isn't exactly a great spot to get bearish and leaves plenty of room for more upside. The best part for bulls, though, is the undying skepticism and lack of bullish conviction out there. I don't believe the sentiment readings one bit any time it says investors are bullish. Just turn on CNBC for a day and listen to how many people say they are cautious....it's crazy. Read any investing blog or finance related site and you read the same thing.
Talk to any average person out there and they are so skeptical after having been burnt twice by the markets in the past 10 years that it will take a much higher market for them to be convinced things are better. Just look at this blog...on any given day it's a total bummer to read people's comments it almost makes you want to just jump off a ledge.
All of this will keep this bull rocketing higher for a while longer. I believe we will see new all time highs for the market in 2012.
illini- Here's my honest opinion. Traders selling CSCO/INTC/WFC at 16/23/28 are freaking idiots.
ReplyDeleteDamn, lights out.
ReplyDeleteLights out?
ReplyDeleteThat's a good video of a song I was crazy about in 1956. I remember high school buddies wearing blue suede shoes. I may have had a pair myself but memory is fading. It was a fad.
ReplyDeleteVideo was 1968. Elvis still intact. The young girls clapping around the square would be over 40. Wondering what they think now.
WFC wouldn't surprise me at all. Especially if they close a deal with UBS for their wealth mang. division.
ReplyDeleteThe King Lives! Those young girls would still give Elvis their panties.
ReplyDeleteS&P hasn't moved through the 20SMA, probably b/c the dollar hasn't resumed a trend.
ReplyDeleteWow, if this is the way it's going to be, Vancouver in 4.
ReplyDeleteIllini - saw your post about trading MITK...why bother trying to time it at this point? I think it gets to $35 ($1 Billion mkt cap) either organically or through a buyout. If Mobile Bill Pay takes off then all bets are off.
ReplyDeleteOn a related note Paypal just added their mobile banking app through Android:
http://www.intomobile.com/2011/05/18/paypal-android-app-lets-you-deposit-checks-snapping-picture/
I just downloaded it and deposited 2 checks...talk about easy. It took longer to download the app than to deposit the checks.
The only good thing about the Sharks getting blown out is that my old boss and ops guy, both huge Van fans, got canned too so they won't be in my face much!
ReplyDeletethere is always a silver lining.
2nd - sure hope you're right man!
Good readings from Investors Intelligence - the ratio of bulls fell to 46% - hasn't been under 50% since November.
ReplyDeleteAnd we are only SPY down 1.2% from yearly highs. Now to be fair, I'm not sure what day the survey was done and we were down 5.5% at the recent lows, but even that was still up 5.8% for the year.
Seems like we are recharging for another move higher.
And go Vancouver! We haven't had a Canadian Team win the Stanley Cup in 17 years.
ReplyDeleteFor any patient, value investors out there, the insurance companies may have had a bit of a push forward yesterday when White Mountains Insurance (WTM) sold their online insurance business to Allstate for about $1 billion and the stock was up 15%. They are still the cheapest industry out there and worth investing in with your more conservative money.
ReplyDeleteMy favourite insurance stock now is National Western Life (NWLI). It is a Texas based life insurer who sells a lot of policies internationally (so broad revenue streams and not just tied to US). It is trading at 45% of book value and P/E of 7.5. Profitable through each year in the downturn, very conservatively run. Only knock against it is management is not concerned about the share price and just builds the business and figures the share price will eventually follow. Main shareholder and CEO is 75 years old, so when he moves on, perhaps this will change.
Regardless, during the last bull market, it generally traded traded between 80% and 90% of book and got over 100% a few times, so a double over the next 2 - 3 years is very likely.
Won't do as well as MITK or ECUXF if they take off the way posters here expect, but much safer in my opinion and very good upside.
Sold 700 BEXP @ 29.55. Booking $1,400.
ReplyDeletegood job bro, please bring the cash with you this weekend....LOL
ReplyDeletePicking back up those 700 shares @ 28.73.
ReplyDeleteOpppssss...To late bro. It's back in the hopper.
ReplyDeleteCADC - Volume is high this morning.
ReplyDeleteNWLI - Does look like a bargain, thanks for pointing it out, BB. A move to $170 looks ready to occur off the bottom trend line.
ReplyDeleteBEXP - That gap up had to close, I wasn't fast enough to take advantage...
ReplyDeleteNWLI - Wow, there's no volume there whatsoever though.
ReplyDelete700 more @ 28.40.
ReplyDeleteNWLI is the type of stock stock I really like - ignored by everyone else. You can add a lot of upside to your portfolio if you spend the time to find these underfollowed, undervalued stocks and are patient - way too many people just play the S&P 500 or ETF's and the bargains are in the other 90% of the market.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, iIf you are one of the people playing commodity stocks on the board, you really should get a broker with access to the TSX. The TSX is leading market in the world for the smaller miner / energy companies. I've bought Brazil fertilizer, french metal drilling, Egyptian natural gas, Australian Nickel, Portuguese Copper, Columbian coal, all in Canada with standard financial rules and no pink sheets.
BEXP - Mark - Good work taking the $570 differential.
ReplyDelete"the bargains are in the other 90% of the market."
ReplyDeleteAgreed, which is one reason I began trading CADC until the Chinese reverse mergers blew up. I still believe in CADC but the VIE corporate structure (Variable Interest Entity) these guys are forced to adopt to get around Chinese foreign ownership laws is killing them, not to mention the temptation to raid the corporate treasury and run. I guess China doesn't want hot money flowing in and out of their economy and so the VIE structure. Their free trade monkey business games are what's gotten us into this mess.
Broker - My original goal was only to buy a few stocks and ride them up but I discovered up isn't always up. ;)
JB - Looks like Mark added 700 more BEXP with the intention of bringing gains in excess of $1k with him to Madera. I figure he ought to have in excess of ~$1140 in his pocket. ;)
ReplyDelete2nd - It seems you may be correct about the end of the dip this time. Prices appear to be putting in a bottom as RSI's have landed and seat backs are returned to the upright position. ;)
ReplyDeleteRBY - Picking up steam here.
ReplyDeleteCP - Must be! Good job bro - I'll put that cash to good use (maybe a new bathrobe and some slippers)
ReplyDeleteTF - Just read the Pay Pal story you linked to and followed a link which led me to another mobile deposit announcement from last year. Doesn't this all mean that MITK is going to have a lot of competition in a very fragmented market? How do you see the situation/competititive position of MITK now.
ReplyDelete"maybe a new bathrobe and some slippers"
ReplyDeleteWho needs a bath robe, just let it all hang out!
I'd buy a couple of goats and a Sears shed for them to hang out in. Their life span is approximately the same and mowing will be a chore you won't be saddled with for the duration. If/when you get tired of them for some reason, just hang a "Cabrito" sign out front.
Heck, there may even be enough left over for new bicycle tires, there would be in the case of my old Schwinn...
http://www.depositnow.com/news/iPhone-at-home-check-deposit.html
ReplyDeleteThe link for the other article.
$1600 gold by labor day? I'm beginning to think so.
ReplyDeleteUXG - Looks to be on blue light special today...
ReplyDeleteIllini - Bankserv and Paypal are MITK customers. MITK doesn't have a monopoly on the technology but they have the lions share of the market already with JPM, BAC, USB, PNC, COF, Paypal, USAA and others already signed on.
ReplyDeleteTF - I guess I was confused. It sounded like Pay Pal and Bankserv had developed their own system.
ReplyDeleteFor any momo players, MAKO (MAKO Surgical) is on a tear. No position.
ReplyDeleteGlad to see you guys have all my money spent already.
ReplyDeletelooks like "they" took out some stops on REDF this morning. up 16% from the lows this morning. crazy.
ReplyDeleteTOF- QSPA would have been the smart play at the open once LNKD hit the tape. I was too busy trying to squeeze a couple hundred bucks out of BEXP.
ReplyDeleteRENN also.
ReplyDeleteWow...you're right mark. Other than buying a measly 800 shs of MITK 2 weeks ago I haven't made a trade in 5 weeks...my broker hates me.
ReplyDelete1400 BEXP off @ 28.86. Booking the $744. Back to core position.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Yeah, other than dicking around with BEXP, not much going on here either.
ReplyDeleteI have to admit, in looking at all of the energy plays I follow, BEXP is holding up well. That reason alone was enough for me to cash in my trading chips.
ReplyDeleteS&P500 is stuck again at 1340, that February high. Once we clear that level should be smooth sailing.
ReplyDeleteMay be by end of the week.....
Any gold/silver bugs got a feel for SVM? Looks like a reversal candidate.
ReplyDeleteI'm a little hesitant to buy it as all previous silver blowouts have hit their 200 days before marching higher. Silver's 200 is at 29.08 at the moment...
Was looking @ SLV last night Jesse. I'm waiting for 30. If I miss it, so be it.
ReplyDeleteToday's close ends my 2 day reprieve from the selling. If this is the start of something bigger to the downside, it should re-assert itself tomorrow w/ more selling.
ReplyDeleteI will be much more comfortable going long above today's highs. Semiconductors are slowly breaking down out of a 4 month bullish pennant that I've had my eyes on for awhile.
CAAS issued a press release this morning saying that they DID provide a plan to NASDAQ on May 13 about how they will regain compliance with NASDAQ rules. They jumped 5% today, and my buy limit order for 10 November 2011 calls at $1.75 did not get executed. But then, it is obvious that the 20 May $7.50 puts I shorted will also expire tomorrow, and so in order to have an unlimited upside in CAAS I just went ahead and bought 10 November $7.50 calls at $2.10. CAAS also said in their press release that they are planning to finish restating their earnings for 2010 and first have of 2011 by June 2011, so that gives plenty of time for my November calls to go up 5X (if CAAS rises to $18).
ReplyDeleteI also just placed a buy limit order for 10 November $10 calls on CAAS at $1.10, just below the asking price of $1.20.
ReplyDeleteLooks like CADC found its bottom at $2. Too bad I didn't add any at that price...
ReplyDeleteJust bought 1000 more shares of GMO at $4.02, for a total of 4000 shares. I also have 20 short puts, which are in the money now and so will give me additional 2000 shares if GMO stays in place. While I was reluctant to add to GMO above $5, at $4 GMO is a great buy.
ReplyDeleteYou know, I'm not really sure how Schwab calculates Daily $ change and Daily realized $'s. Something seems off, but according to the actual transaction record, the $'s booked on BEXP are as posted. Not that it matters anyway.
ReplyDeleteMy buy limit order for 10 November $10 calls for CAAS at $1.10 just got filled. So if CAAS rises to $17 by November OpEx, then I should recoup a good chunk of the money I put into WATG so far.
ReplyDeleteDavid- When the hell are you going to run out of money to invest? :)
ReplyDeleteI swear we get an AMZN delivery EVERY fing day here. I'm going to have to figure out a way to disable that web site on Patricia's computer.
ReplyDeleteNew low for BAC in this recent slide.
ReplyDelete"David- When the hell are you going to run out of money to invest? :)"
ReplyDeleteI know, I know. :) I found a few K to invest now because I am assuming that my May short puts on CAAS will expire, and so I don't need to back up those puts with cash anymore. Also, if WATG doesn't start trading by tomorrow, then the $5 puts I shorted on WATG will also expire automatically. So there WAS some benefit to the WATG trading halt. :)
I do like the idea of a $14.3T bail bond for DSK, I'd vote yes on that one.
ReplyDelete"we get an AMZN delivery EVERY fing day here."
ReplyDeleteThat must be JB's robe and slippers! Don't forget to put them in the car. ;)
"David- When the hell are you going to run out of money to invest? :)"
ReplyDeleteAlso, as you have probably noticed, Mark, I am adding to my positions in VERY small lots. I learned during the 2008 crash that amazing deals can become super amazing, and then super super amazing. Hence, not going all in at once is the key to catching the bottom of small and volatile stocks.
Wow, what a round trip on CADC today...
ReplyDeleteThere was a 100k tick on MITK 10 minutes before the close.
ReplyDeleteIllini - They're buying it up man. People are slowly but surely catching on to the story. Hopefully mobile deposit gets adopted faster than analysts expect so it surprises even us.
ReplyDeleteGold - Well I guess gold did reach my July 4th $1570 target in advance, a couple of months early:
ReplyDelete"Accelerating inflation, Europe’s debt crisis, a weakening dollar and unrest in north Africa and the Middle East boosted gold to a record $1,577.57 an ounce on May 2."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-19/gold-demand-advances-11-in-quarter-as-investment-drives-prices-to-record.html
So I feel more comfortable with the next target of $1600 by Labor Day.
Re: "That's one IPO I'll be shorting..." new
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by teamonfuego (2422 comments) on Thu, 05/19/2011 - 19:15 #86175 (in reply to #86169)
Nebish - I totally agree and this is just one of the many reasons why I'm so bullish on this market. Many more private internet companies are lining up to go public, which will continue to drive the animal spirits higher. And the best part is valuations really aren't expensive at all. I know margins are on the higher end of the spectrum, but companies are much more tentative now to hire than in the past, which should keep margins higher for a good deal longer. So trading at 13-14 times earnings for the entire market isn't exactly a great spot to get bearish and leaves plenty of room for more upside. The best part for bulls, though, is the undying skepticism and lack of bullish conviction out there. I don't believe the sentiment readings one bit any time it says investors are bullish. Just turn on CNBC for a day and listen to how many people say they are cautious....it's crazy. Read any investing blog or finance related site and you read the same thing.
Talk to any average person out there and they are so skeptical after having been burnt twice by the markets in the past 10 years that it will take a much higher market for them to be convinced things are better. Just look at this blog...on any given day it's a total bummer to read people's comments it almost makes you want to just jump off a ledge.
All of this will keep this bull rocketing higher for a while longer. I believe we will see new all time highs for the market in 2012.
Take a look @ GLUU after it was mentioned on CNBC today.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete