Saturday, May 21, 2011

05/21/11 TT



Thanks for the support, rb, but that place is history. The live music that gave us reason to drop in stopped a long time ago, replaced by watered-down Muzak and Budweiser (no offense to you Bud drinkers). The people that made that place hip for a season have all departed.

What they don't get is a blog needs a soul. And without honest and freewheeling debate- they be soul-less.

TT will be around long after they close down the other joint. The only way we're no longer cool is if we stop being cool.

I love the way the split frame keeps zooming in on Slick draped against the grand piano. She kind of looks like our own vb.

Sporting a ---- you 'tude at 35? Obviously you got it from parents that came of age in the sixties, tof.

58 comments:

  1. " And without honest and freewheeling debate- they be soul-less."

    Agree. It's more lopsided all the time in favor of, well, you know.... the usual stuff. They keep coming out of the woodwork and it builds up over time.

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  2. I just finished watching 'Defiance.' No, not the 2008 Daniel Craig film. The 1980 Jan Michel Vincent film. 'Fighting back' (against gang violence) -type movies were popular around that time. This one's a cut above. You'll find it in the 'free movies' link on Comcast right now.

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  3. Do you guys realize that 99.99999% of the global population couldn't care less about the stock market?

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  4. And 99.999999999999999999999% couldn't care less about market timing strategies?

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  5. 'The Deer Hunter' is also showing. Next on my list. Obviously, this is one I've watched at least twice.

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  6. Submitted by Telestar3d (523 comments) on Sun, 05/22/2011 - 00:03 #86255 (in reply to #86248)
    Good points. For all we know Soros is back in.

    I could care less if he made money. I just want to see what they are looking at and after that if it is something I'm interested in, I can do my own evaluation of the chart and find my entry/exits. Good Luck.

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  7. And 80% of the population think it's 'could care less?'

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  8. I suppose they could care less that it's couldn't care less.

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  9. I just finished watching American Experience on PBS, about the May, 1961 Freedom Riders. Start of the de-seg movement as far as actual movement. Fascinating. I was oblivious to this history as a junior in college. Later, in '63 in St. Louis I became aware as, believe it or not folks, there was segregation and protests in that city too.

    I have Comcast and will check out "Fighting Back", tomorrow.

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  10. 2nd I know PM's are popular (everyday we have an ECU story from David) on this blog and with BC. What is the reason you don't trade PM's? I personally have a good size position in PRPFX which is my inflation hedge plus I am ECU believer. I have done quite well riding SLW from $30 to about $40 before the crash. SLW was probably my best % gain this year (25% in just 1 month).

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  11. illini- It's 'Defiance.' 'Fighting Back' also came out around that time, which I watched in a theatre.

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  12. igor- I have traded PMs in the past. In fact, a gut-wrenching sell-off in the sector in the mid-2000s was one of my best days on the Cara blog.

    However, I'm no longer interested in that kind of volatility. It doesn't keep me from commenting on the emotional swings I see- I saw the most recent sell-off coming a mile away, based on nothing more than Dr. S's posts.

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  13. RB - My nice comment about Soros has now evoked the first mention of that dreaded thing ... one world government. Thats the jump to the jugular move.

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  14. I'm still confident all three indexes (DJIA/SPX/NDQ) rocket to new heights this summer.

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  15. How many investors believed the DJIA could drop to 6600?

    How many believe now it can hit 14500 by year-end?

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  16. Re the stock market- most of the time, the place to be is long- not short.

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  17. FWIW, my $$ algo says SPX 1426 is the target both IT and LT. That's resistance. Short term is not so hot now.

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  18. Look, at a relatively tame 7%/yr, the SPX would be at 1865 in 5 years.

    At 10%/hr, 2142.

    Unless you're convinced we're going down- get long. Stay long.

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  19. When the SPX doubles in the next 7-10 years, anyone still sitting in cash is going look pretty out of it.

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  20. Get with the program. Get fully invested.

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  21. David- When that 500k home in Campbell hits 1m, don't be on the outside looking in.

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  22. Believe me, I'm not sharing soap with total strangers for nothing.

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  23. 2nd I don't recognize your posts anymore, 3 month ago you were so cautious that you would miss some rallies to not take risk. Now that the market stumbles and is down for 3 weeks in a row, you are all long and positive. What happened?

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  24. Does someone else posts under your identity....

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  25. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  26. 2nd makes an interesting point with the house. If I found something I like now for my residence, I'd buy it and not wait even though prices may drop further.

    BTW 2nd did you ever find a custodian for buying Real Estate in your IRA and if so who did you pick? TIA

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  28. I wonder if Mark is on a hayride or a square-dance or something in Madera.

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  29. Illi, Yep the one world govt was an easy call.

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  30. Mark - Most likely he was scheduled to bid in the Madera livestock auction this weekend. ;)

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  31. Madera B & B Livestock Auction
    559-661-8107 Small Animals - Every Saturday @ 10 AM
    Horse & Tackle Sale - 1st. Sunday @ 11 AM

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  32. Please!!!

    Had a great time. TB (Jb's daughter was very impressive, as she was chosen to deliver the class speech.) I've never seen so many brainiacs in my life. Yikes. Almost half the graduating class had GPA's over 4.0.

    Back to business. This take aligns with mine on the E&P guys. Notice the mention of the Bakken play.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/pwj8wuqW

    But more importantly.... GO SHARKS!!!!!

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  33. JB congratulations. Empty nester right.

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  34. t3d- I haven't moved into a self-directed IRA, but of the ones I researched, I liked Entrust:

    http://www.theentrustgroup.com/locations/franchises/4/

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  35. Igor- Things change.

    As far as I know, no one else has posted under my handle. It would be pretty easy to spot if they did:

    (a) I read the blog every day.
    (b) No one else writes like me.

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  36. Indeed 2nd, even if you post under a new name it may be difficult to disguise your style. You probably would not even be interested in doing so.

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  37. 2nd- I was joking about 'posting under your identity', it is just your market view changed so drastically. What leads you to believe that a good size correction is not likely in the current market? Is it that we have worked out the overbought condition that existed in December/January, something else? What concerns me is that company earnings are not uniformly good (beating expectations) anymore, QE2 is winding down and the financial sector (stocks like GS, C, BAC) graphs look like good ski hills.

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  38. Igor- I agree with your 'take' above. Very cautious bull here.

    FWIW, I just emailed MOG for his take. He leaves for Qatar tomorrow.

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  39. "David- When that 500k home in Campbell hits 1m, don't be on the outside looking in."

    2nd, I can guarantee that a 500k home in Campbell will not rise by more than 10% by the end of 2012, while ECU will triple by that time (we even made a bet about it :). Hence, when I make a "lateral move" from ECUXF to a house in Campbell by the end of 2012, it will in retrospect look like the best time to make such a move before the end of 2012.

    Of course, when ECUXF doubles yet again by the end of 2013 and my house stays flat, I'll be sorry that I rushed with that move. :)

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  40. Igor- Once I make the decision that I'm unable to time the market, I'm free of timing concerns. I no longer 'worry' about a coming decline, I expect it. In fact, I expect many declines. However, I also expect the indexes to generally move up over time.

    The only reason to concern myself with declines? Thinking I can time them. Since I've decided I can't time them, what do I gain from 'predicting' when one might occur?

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  41. I just checked my OptionsHouse account and surprisingly, it looks like my 10 May $5 WATG puts (which I sold for $0.4 each) were assigned to me, increasing my share count by 1000. I'll have to talk to them on Monday to figure out what is going on. On the other hand, the 20 May $7.50 puts (which I sold for $0.45 each) have expired.

    As a result, the buying power in my account has increased by $15K, and so I can do even more crazy investing now! :) So I just placed a buy limit order for 1000 shares of CADC at $2.05. The company doesn't have an accounting scandal (yet), trades at a P/E of 2, and has a record order backlog. So the chances are that this purchase, if CADC hits my limit, will pay off very handsomely.

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  42. Also, placed a buy stop limit order for 200 shares of SLW at $35.9/$36, so as to catch if it breaks out to a two-week high.

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  43. USEG worth keeping an eye on for high beta players like RB.

    BTW, BEXP is fracing 3 wells for them right now.

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  44. USEG - They own rights (or the property, I'm not sure which) to a large molybdenum deposit in Colorado that TC just recently gave up on attempting to permit due to environmental issues. Apparently it's a high quality primary deposit but I doubt it can be permitted in our lifetime due to the particular location.

    Anyway, I had checked into this matter while doing DD on GMO and concluded it wouldn't happen.

    I don't know much else about what USEG has going for them but from my understanding the family that owns USEG has been involved in some questionable deals in the past. So maybe a "beware of USEG" is in order, but that's all second hand opinion I cannot account for personally.

    Based solely on this word of mouth impression, I have no plans to trade USEG myself.

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  45. 2nd - classic one liner posts man. I couldn't agree more that 80% of the population could think its could care less. Is that like a triple negative?

    I'm actually 3 years under your estimated age so I guess that makes me even more jaded than I should be at this age. Both my mom and dad were straight up hippies...they grew up in the 60's/early 70's and lived in Berkeley in 69. I definitely got this from them...

    Congrats JB man...awesome to read that post from Mark. You gotta be proud. To raise a kid and then to top it off by raising her well...shit that's worth more than any 10 bagger in the market.

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  46. CP- No doubt, it's all out there. My take is the sell off due to the TC news is an over reaction, and their land holdings in the Bakken are being undervalued. Of course, I'd prefer they didn't get upgraded to buy with a PT of 8ish on friday.

    Might be worth a play if it pulls back 5%.

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  47. Man, watching the 60 minutes piece about Armstrong/racing. Tough stuff.

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  48. Mark - As I sign off for the night, I put in a request for some pictures tomorrow, preferably soccer but whatever the hell else you were doing out there.

    Our spring soccer season ended Saturday. Several rainy games and some cancelled for the little kids.

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  49. Mark - USEG - All I can say is the demise of the moly mine permit shouldn't have been a surprise and I don't think it was.

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  50. 2nd, thanks, of the ones I looked at Entrust looked most interesting too. I'm also interested in the LLC method which seems to give ultimate control, but need more info on this structure.

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  51. Surprise

    http://screencast.com/t/WBGm3nz9Q

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  52. good info where do you get it? Wher ethe hell is Joe.

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  53. Yogi Bear, it is a service I subscribe to with respect to 25 hedge funds 13F's. Most of the information 98%, I can access for free on the net but this has a few things that I can't. The consensus buy/ sell being one.

    This is the first time I tried it for a year, not sure if I would sign up again.

    It is called Hedge Fund Wisdom by marketfolly.com. Joe has gone to deep space.

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  54. Thanks guys, we are really proud of TB. Can't believe how fast it went . Seems like just yesterday I was walking her to kindergarten and now she's off to college in the Fall.

    And a special thanks to that milk man as he must have been REALLY smart...............LOL

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  55. Isn't that a gap fill from Mid April? Wonder how much more of a haircut is coming...

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