Wednesday, May 25, 2011
05/25/11 My Favorite Things
David-
Do you recall my 1979 story about flying to Boston? I stayed with a friend, who was married to a beautiful Harvard law student. His wife and I went shopping for groceries at a neighborhood store, where the cashier dissed her. Anger flashed in her eyes, but it was only momentary. In that moment, however, the picture was clear.
Look, man. You're a Stanford graduate with a killer job in Silicon Valley. Be angry for a moment- beyond that, you're wasting your time. You're looking for answers from guys likely 15-20 years your senior. Their behavior, however, tells me they peaked a long time ago- 'downhill' stuff.
You've already overtaken these guys on the road of life. Why circle back?
I love the early morning stillness. Look forward to our walks in the yard after I return to the block. My best to the guys.
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enjoy your stroll 2nd, watch yourself in the shower.
ReplyDeletewild over night session for the 6E but I never did pull the trigger.
Morning all
ReplyDeleteThanks for the invite 2nd!
Futures pretty flat now.
ReplyDeleteDurable goods orders report in minutes...
ReplyDeletemorning PZ, CP!
ReplyDeletelong 4068 6E
ReplyDeletetaking some heat here, stop is at 60
ReplyDeletethat's better, +5
ReplyDeletestop to be
ReplyDeleteanother car off at +5, one runner
ReplyDeleteso
ReplyDeleteBoyz...
ReplyDeleteThis caught my eye (MITK related??)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.finextra.com/news/fullstory.aspx?newsitemid=22590
I always wondered why Schwartzenegger usually had a cigar in his mouth!
ReplyDeleteDurable goods orders- Down -3.6%, more than the anticipated -2% due to lower aircraft orders else was stronger than forecast.
ReplyDeletehey bro - tof would have a better take than I do I'm sure, but I would think mitk solutions could be complimentary to clearXchange....maybe this JV would be interested in acquiring mitk.
ReplyDeleteYM sure needs to hold 12292
ReplyDeleteRemember, Mon. the market is closed. Could get a little slow.
ReplyDeletethe 6E is imploding, will take the ES with it I'm afraid.
ReplyDeleteGuys- From a LT perspective, the current weakness is all good.
ReplyDeleteLet me repeat that- It's all good!
Do not lose sight of that.
$'s coming into energy again.
ReplyDeleteCADC - Kinda looks like whomever was selling has finally run out of shares... Unbelievable, I thought he was going to sell it all the way to zero!
ReplyDeleteOkay, I'm outta here to go carry a casket, scream at you guys later!
ReplyDeleteInteresting to see TOL.
ReplyDeleteWell, it looks like my day will hinge on the inventory report.
ReplyDeleteso sad to hear that Mark Haines passed away last night.
ReplyDeleteYeah. Kinda crazy we sit here and listen to these guys everyday then 'poof'.
ReplyDeleteMessy market.
Cheer up, guys. Keep your eyes focused on 1500. Anything that happens until then is 'noise.' ')
ReplyDeleteGMO! No news I can find. Must be the permit.
ReplyDeletewow that's sad to hear about Mark Haines. I liked that guy. i always wondered how old he was...he never seemed like the healthiest guy to me but he seemed like a great guy.
ReplyDeleteCrap. I can't find shit on GMO and I got to run.
ReplyDeleteAt the close boys.
CSCO - Has to be one of the most hated by Wall Street but I bought more today at 16.16.
ReplyDeleteCP- Way to go with GMO! That's the kind of move market timers aren't able to catch. All the more reason to stick with buy-and-hold.
ReplyDeletere GMO - http://tinyurl.com/43rkbmv
ReplyDeleteTAN chart guys. Picked up WFR and YOKU a minute ago.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Nice move but it just puts price where it was 18 days ago when it started the downhill slide.
ReplyDeleteChart speaks for itself.
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/UOXLS9LrutFd
Rip Mark Haines, and classic Haines:
http://www.businessinsider.com/mark-haines-has-passed-away-2011-5
Morning guys! Let me repeat the post I made about GMO yesterday:
ReplyDelete"Look at the GMO graph since March 2009 -- a nice and steady series of higher lows, with GMO touching right now the ascending line connecting the lows and based on its action during the past couple of weeks, looks like that support is going to hold. So just based on the technicals, GMO can rocket to $6 in a month simply because the traders will see that yet another test of rising support line was successful."
I think that's EXACTLY what is happening today -- a simple realization that GMO had successfully held its rising support line and is now due to make yet another new high since March 2009. Glad I picked up 4000 shares of GMO at the average price of $4.10 over the past couple of weeks. But that's peanuts -- CP, with 1/3 of his port in GMO, must be smiling today. :)
According to a good old Russian tradition, CP, you must uncork with friends a bottle of something nice today, so as to make sure that this luck continues. I'll be opening the two bottles of absinthe I got last week (Kubler and Mata Hari) so as to make a blind comparison of them and see which one I like more.
My, oh my! CADC just hit my sell limit at $2.91 for the 1000 shares I added at $2.41 last week. That's a 20% gain right there! Even though the position size was tiny, it still made a $500 profit! Now I only have 2000 shares left that I picked up at the average cost of $2.90. I wonder if I should just sell them now and then reload in low 2's again...
ReplyDeleteYep, I just sold them at $3, for another $200 gain. Unlike GMO and ECUXF, which are destined to go up 10-20X from here and so I won't even think about selling them now, CADC has a very limited long-term potential, with rising production costs etc. Most likely, CADC will have a ceiling at $4 for a while now. Thus, I designated it as my trading stock and I started scaling into it once it broke below the previous 52-week low at $3 just because it HAD to bounce at some point, looking at its flat long-term trend with A LOT of volatility in between. So it DID bounce this week...
ReplyDeleteJust placed buy limit orders for 1000 shares of CADC at $2.75 and at $2.50, so as to reload the 2000 shares I just sold at $3.00.
ReplyDeleteI see CADC has already rolled back from its peak and is bidding at $2.83 now. I just moved up my first buy limit to $2.8, so as to increase the chance of reloading *some* shares.
ReplyDeleteYep. Reloaded 1000 shares at $2.8. Fun day with CADC today. :) Just like yesterday with SORL. :) AND, interestingly, all the action starts happening at 10am, as soon as I wake up. :))
ReplyDeleteNow that the fun has subsided a little, let me ask you again, PZ -- how did you find us? I am just curious...
ReplyDeleteThere is one more thing I want to do today: buy some puts on DB so as to hedge myself against a possible collapse in Europe. So I just placed a buy limit order for 5 July $55 puts on DB at $2 (the bid ask is $1.70-2.45).
ReplyDeleteNo one took that bait at $2, so I moved up my buy limit to $2.10 and got an immediate fill for 5 puts. So now I won't feel like a deer that stared at an approaching truck but didn't do anything about it.
ReplyDeleteSo now I can return to the general philosophy of today's post: what did you mean, 2nd_ave, when you told me not to waste time? Did you mean that I shouldn't try to advocate scaling into long-term positions according to the Kelly criterion? I mentioned that criterion here simply to help the people on this blog, because I truly believe that this is the most profitable way to handle a long-term buy-and-hold approach. It took me a couple of years to start doing this intuitively, and I was pleasantly surprised to see a mathematical confirmation of my behavior when someone later on showed me this Kelly criterion. So I figured some people here might find it useful as well...
ReplyDeletePXP- Very strong move today.
ReplyDeleteJust looked at the GMO presentation. Nice. Probably will get a pop again tomorrow after the conference. BEXP is there also.
guys - i confirmed with MITK that they are in the Fidelity mobile check deposit offering...they also said:
ReplyDelete"It is up to our customers ultimately to make the announcements as we generally are often times unaware of specific deployment dates. In addition, we do not plan to announce each customer as they deploy. We will likely continue to make periodic announcements as we have done in the past announcing the number of new customer wins."
Also, Javelin Research, an independent banking research company, just released a report on mobile banking and basically said that the adoption rate of mobile check deposit is ahead of their own forecasts and that about 2/3 of the banks they contacted are going to launch mobile check deposit within the next year.
All roads lead to MITK...
2nd messaged me David.
ReplyDeleteHere's one for all you Landry devotees....SFLY.
ReplyDelete2nd_ave -- you are in for some trouble, my friend. :) Have you tried logging into CC today? Your account might already be blocked there...
ReplyDeleteDavid- 2nd already has 2 strikes against him. That's why he's swapping soap with Bruno ;)
ReplyDeleteI'll right, TOF -- I give up. :) Just picked up 1000 shares of MITK at $6.90. Its pullback during the last 3 days looks very orderly, and looks like the 3-day support at $6.75 is going to hold. After traders realize that this will be the case, MITK will spike up to a new high.
ReplyDeleteCheck out the SORL chart today -- amazing! The hedge fund boys are having fun running stops both ways...
ReplyDeleteI stepped in a little into the margin in my ETrade account today with my purchase of MITK, and so I just placed a sell limit order at $3 for the 1000 shares of CADC I reloaded today at $2.80, so as to raise some cash in that account. If everything works out the way TOF is predicting, then MITK has a much larger potential upside than CADC, and so consistent with my current desire of loading up on stocks with the largest potential upside, a lateral move from CADC into MITK makes a total sense (especially given the huger spike in CADC and a pullback in MITK now).
ReplyDeleteRBY is edging slowly up to the 3-day resistance at $4.60. Once it breaks through that resistance, it will spike up to $5. Given my lucky streak with predicting moves in CADC and GMO, let me go out on a limb and predict that the breakout in RBY will happen ... TOMORROW!
ReplyDeleteThus, I just bought 1000 shares of RBY in my OptionsHouse account at $4.57 and placed a sell limit for them at $4.97. Let's see if I can make a quick $400 on these shares tomorrow...
ReplyDeleteNow, since I increased my exposure to the mainstream PM stocks (SLW, RBY), I need to protect myself against a simultaneous collapse in all of them. So I decided to invoke on SLW the most important trading rule "do not let a profit turn into a loss" and moved up my sell stop to $34.98/$34.95, just below yesterday's low.
ReplyDeleteDavid, your priceless my friend...
ReplyDeleteAll right, I'll admit it. I'll probably wet my pants if BEXP can close above 30.34 today.
ReplyDeleteSPX back to the 50. Got to me some short pressure here. If it breaks above it, stops galore.
ReplyDeleteBEXP...There is a 60K share ask at 30.30. I'm calling BS. If it get's there I bet they magically disappear.
ReplyDeleteTOF, Mark: looks like my buying of MITK at the ask of $6.90 was the tipping point, as MITK just broke out to a new daily high and will inevitably continue tomorrow. So if you want to send me any Thank You letters, I'll gladly accept them. :))
ReplyDeleteBEXP- Ha!!! I was right! As soon as 30.30 was inside those asks disappeared.
ReplyDeleteBEXP just broke up above its recent resistance and is good to go now. I just placed a buy limit order for 3 October $28 calls on BEXP at $4.90 (the bid/ask was $4.60-$5), so as to have some skin in the game.
ReplyDeleteBEXP will inevitably have a pullback before the close and the buy limit order for my calls should be hit.
ReplyDeleteDavid- If you clear those 6.99 asks, I'll buy you ANOTHER round of drinks :)
ReplyDeleteDavid- You must be high on profits today. I was banned for the second (and final) time not long ago- what's it been, about 2 weeks?
ReplyDeleteWe're going to start a band, my man, and name it The Banned.
Forgot to mention: once I bought 1000 shares of MITK today, I cancelled my buy limit for 1000 shares of CADC at $2.50. So now I only have a sell limit at $3.00 for CADC.
ReplyDeleteBEXP- I suspect your right David.
ReplyDeleteDa Banned...
ReplyDeleteThey say absinthe ----s with your memory.
ReplyDelete"We're going to start a band, my man, and name it The Banned."
ReplyDeleteGreat idea, 2nd! We should get that into the blog's title somehow.
How could you invite PZ yesterday if you were already banned for 2 weeks?
"They say absinthe ----s with your memory."
ReplyDeleteSo if I start posting some nonsense tomorrow, you'll know the reason. :)
In addition to the well-known effects of alcohol on nerve cells.
ReplyDeleteGood to see, Mark, that you are making some serious dough with BEXP today! Way to go!
ReplyDeleteIt's a vicious, yet profitable cycle.
ReplyDeleteAlcohol-> nerve damage/memory loss-> improved trading + greater profits-> increased alcohol consumption-> greater nerve damage/memory loss-> even better trading + profits up the wazoo.
Now look at the 6-month chart for ECU.TO, notice a recent double bottom at $0.67 and $0.68, the intermediate high between those bottoms at $0.82, and the fact that ECU.TO is trading at $0.85, just above that high. So purely from a technical perspective ECU should shoot up to $1 tomorrow. THAT will be the day when I start making some serious dough as well. :)
ReplyDeletePer ST:
ReplyDelete"Short-term, our Down Pressure gauge for the Nasdaq 100 moved to 90% as of Tuesday's close. This means that over the past three days over 90% of the volume went into declining stocks, and 90% of the total point moves were to the downside.
That's extreme.
So extreme, that we've only seen it 11 other times since July 2002. A week later, the NDX was positive 10 of the 11 times, with a median return of +2.7%.
The maximum loss during the next week averaged only -0.5%, while the maximum gain averaged +6.5%
jesse- It's about time.
ReplyDeleteThanks David. Now clear the 26K shares @ 7.00 :)
ReplyDeleteDavid- In 6 years of blogging, I did manage to develop a few contacts. More than a few, even.
ReplyDeleteHow do you think I manage 'net access inside my cell?
TAN etf rsi 24.73. Looks to be lowest in its 3+ year history.
ReplyDeleteStill working hard to shake investors off. The more, the better.
ReplyDeleteTo me, it is so interesting that at almost the exact moment I am moving more to day trading 2nd is rolling to my old M.O. - buy and hold.
ReplyDeleteI've started my own firm, Mark Road Capital Partners, at least to pretend around the wife that I am making progress lining up a new gig...LOL
Only one of my desired three October $28 BEXP calls was sold to me before the close at $4.90. Well, the Fate usually works in my favor in such cases, and so I just placed another buy limit at a better price of $4.50 -- let's see if I can get THAT filled tomorrow. If not, then I'll be sitting patiently and waiting for that call to double, giving me a profit of $500.
ReplyDeleteis it weird to say i almost get a high off reading all of your posts? David - i have never read someone's thoughts written out so methodically on a blog before...it's priceless.
ReplyDeleteAnd The Banned as a band name...doesn't get better than that.
I'm going on 6 weeks now without any trades other than a tiny buy of 800 shs of MITK. Fully loaded and just trying to see how this whole buy and hold thing works out. I'll admit...it makes it easier to do this when what you are holding is up 28%.
"David - i have never read someone's thoughts written out so methodically on a blog before...it's priceless."
ReplyDeleteThanks, TOF... I am trying hard... :)
Good Barron's article today on high liquids plays.
ReplyDeletehttp://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903548904576343841965226596.html?mod=BOL_twm_da
Obviously BEXP is mentioned ;)
Fool article...
ReplyDeleteNote MOG went to UOT and is on their board...
Until recently, driving through Houston, Tulsa, Dallas, or New Orleans would have taken you past a host of energy companies' headquarters. But as crude prices dipped and bounced a couple of decades ago, Houston became the unchallenged home to the bulk of the nation's oil and gas operators and service companies.
Virtually alone in scenic and spectacular Austin is Brigham Exploration (Nasdaq: BEXP ) , which is fast making a name for itself in the Williston Basin's Bakken and Three Forks reservoirs. Indeed, the company has joined others in nudging the Williston of North Dakota and Montana toward discoveries and production levels that could allow it to surpass Prudhoe Bay as North America's largest oilfield.
Founded more than 20 years ago by University of Texas-trained geophysicist Bud Brigham, the company's early days were concentrated in the onshore Gulf Coast, the Anadarko Basin, and West Texas. However, as recently as late 2007, its emphasis was moved to the Williston, where the likes of Continental Resources (NYSE: CLR ) , EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG ) , Marathon (NYSE: MRO ) , and Hess (NYSE: HES ) also operate. A $3-per-share investment in Brigham two years ago would have moved to near $30 a share today.
The company, which has been steadily picking up speed, shows no signs of even tapping its brakes. Just last week, it completed a $300 million offering of 6.875% senior notes due in 2019.
Brigham and his team intend to use the proceeds to hasten the pace of their Williston drilling program. They expect to be operating 10 rigs there by July, and to add a couple of more units by the first quarter of 2012, putting them about six months ahead of their prior schedule. Furthermore, the company's land position now exceeds 378,000 acres in the basin.
With the new funds, Brigham intends to boost the company's oil and gas capital budget to $835.5 million for 2011. The new shekels will be used for drilling, acreage acquisitions, and added infrastructure, including rail yard facilities.
As Bud Brigham said when the offering and revised operating plans were announced, "Given our deep de-risked drilling inventory on our growing core acreage in the Williston Basin, this acceleration helps to accrete additional net asset value to our stockholders ..."
It's not because of the warm spot in my heart for Austin that I have become progressively more interested in Brigham Exploration. Instead, there's ample evidence that the company is solidly managed and capable of contributing nicely to your stock watchlist and portfolio.
Mark - That's UT, Austin. Another great school.
ReplyDeleteWell my port had a party today while I was away, that's fine by me!