Thursday, May 26, 2011
05/26/11 The Glass House
The 'original' contemporary prison drama for my generation. I was eighteen the first time I watched this. And a die-hard Vic Morrow fan going back to the 'Combat' series.
I stayed away from the markets today for the simple reason futures made it obvious a +250 point gap up on the DJIA was not forthcoming. I stand by my opinion that anything short of +250 gets sold.
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CP- Thx for the compliment. You'll have to trust me- I'm no genius. A genie, perhaps ').
ReplyDeleteYou know, a high school (sophomore) paper hypothesizing that Lewis Carroll was high when he wrote Alice in Wonderland earned an 'F' in 1970.
If I had to guess, we sell off tomorrow. Rally next week.
ReplyDeleteMark- What was the name of the stuff you recommended for filling in pools? I think you referred to it as a Number 'x' filler of some kind? Do you see any problem (after using some drainage grade stuff at the bottom) with using excavated soil from another site? If not, how would you go about ensuring the soil is free of contamination (lead, PCBs, or worse)?
ReplyDeleteFCX - Well, FCX has recaptured the 200SMA, so anyone calling for metals to sell off must be wondering about their call. Copper chart sure looks like it's got some upside in store.
ReplyDelete2nd - You may be both a genius and genie. I believe moi was the one to use the former term, not CP. Solitary addling your memory?
ReplyDeleteAs to "Alice in Wonderland" --- I have a great memory about "Jabberwocky". In about 1975 Jabberwocky talk unexpectedly appeared on several pages of a draft Army report I and others were reviewing. It cracked us up because it was so appropriate. The author of those words/quotes was from another Army Command and was later admonished when his wording did not pass muster. I am now searching for those very funny words of the Jabberwocky, which are relevant to the B-S of today.
Boys, Just checking in. Have not paid one bit of attention to the market all week. One glance at the chart shows that we are right at some support, if it is breached could be a significant slide. Sure you have already discussed it, but you know, got to add my two cents. Happy trading. Might put in a Buy stop order on QID for kicks and giggles.
ReplyDeleteCANA.PK - Cannabis down over 7% today... longs got smoked!
ReplyDelete"NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The euro rose against the dollar on Thursday on the back of a report that China and other Asian investors are interested in buying Portuguese bailout bonds.
ReplyDeleteThe shared currency pared gains after a top European official raised worries that Greece may not be able to access the next portion of bailout funds.
The euro /quotes/comstock/21o!x:seurusd EURUSD +0.7570% pared its gain to $1.4128, after touching $1.4206 intraday and up from $1.4098 in late North American trading Wednesday."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/euro-rises-vs-dollar-on-china-debt-buying-report-2011-05-26?link=MW_latest_news
I just reviewed the expected timeline provided by RBY and saw that in Q2 2011 they expect both to file a Preliminary Economic Assessment of their project and also get a permission from First Nations. So I cancelled my sell limit order on RBY and decided to wait for these two events to happen. The current moves in RBY are just computers fooling humans and taking their money. Once the two reports are filed, RBY should rise above $6 and THEN I'll start selling it.
ReplyDeleteillini- Of course, I knew it was you. Sorry for the Freudian slip- I can't explain it.
ReplyDeleteConsidering a hunger strike until the DJIA breaks 13000.
ReplyDelete2nd- Basically you can use any compactable fill. The common tern is class II fill. Sorry, you'll never get any that is guaranteed to be 'clean', but I wouldn't worry about it unless your going to eat what's left over.
ReplyDeleteMark- The operative word is 'clean.' It's just one of my quirks. The way I look at it:
ReplyDelete(a) What if we (or future owners) end up growing fruit trees or planting a garden?
(b) The terrace our lot is located on includes an underground spring. I wouldn't want to be responsible for anything leaching into a water table.
(c) Clean fill is good karma, and makes for a peaceful psyche.
2nd- Yeah, I hear you, and agree. Basically, fill is moved from one job to the next. My excavator knows where the fill come from, so the best you can do is ask.
ReplyDeletemorning boys. adding a fifth monitor to my set up, I'm sure my lack of screen real estate is the reason for my recent losses....LOL
ReplyDeletecommercials are buying the s&p at the highs right now, locals are short...might have some early fireworks, then nothing as floor traders fade away in about an hour or so
ReplyDeleteman, the fiver (100 tick chart) just rolled short but I can't pull the trigger....carp!
ReplyDeletethe fiver was right and I was wrong, surprise!
ReplyDeleteHey, didn't someone recently claim PM's were about to take a dive?
ReplyDeleteFTWR- You have got to be kidding me.
ReplyDelete5 screens? That aboy. How many are dedicated to porn?
ReplyDeleteall of them....is that bad?
ReplyDeleteNot unless you get caught.
ReplyDeleteFTWR - The service we subscribe to missed that one... ;)
ReplyDeletedon't jinx me!
ReplyDeletewow, the 6E just fell out of bed, the ES is going to tank here in a min
"Not unless you get caught."
ReplyDeleteThe response may surprise you, I wouldn't risk it though. ;)
JB- That correlation will break one day. Might as well be now.
ReplyDeleteCP- Not here!
ReplyDeleteYeah Mark - was just thinking the exact same thing, just have no clue when
ReplyDeleteCP - the only response here at the ranch would involve some kind of weapon and a train of pain for old JB
ReplyDeletethe 6E just bounced right off the PP, but I don't trust it. Only 45mins until EMEA cash close
ReplyDeleteBAC - nice pop today
ReplyDeleteBAC- Let's see more than 1 or 2 days though.
ReplyDeleteAt the close Joe's.
OT:
ReplyDeleteSports Fans, check out ESPN3 to watch your favorite sports. Yesterday, by accident, I found out that my cable company will let me access it as part of my service. Watching the French Open live now, Tsonga vs. Wawrinka, it feels like you are on the court and right at the event incredible camera work plus no commercials.
JB, maybe you can put on Jane Fonda's tight ass workout's on one of those screens. Now that's a lot of fill.
RBY gamers, bursting at the seams.
ReplyDeleteSharkie's PAL sure has been beaten up and maybe looking up.
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking I need to get more CTCT...the recent drop makes this longer term winner cheap right now in my mind. They have an awesome business model: monthly recurring revenues with rates rising slightly over time. And they have so much room to grow in terms of adding services for their 500k or so monthly members (we use them for our furniture websites).
ReplyDeleteI personally think they're going to get bought out by a Yahoo or some other type company that provides internet based services to small / medium sized businesses.
Technically, the stock looks really oversold with a RSI 14 in the low 20's and the stock down from $36 to $23. I think it will be up in the 40's in a year.
Oil producers - The story floated about sub$3 gasoline worked it's magic, didn't it?
ReplyDeleteI'm still wondering how much of an immediate effect a resolution in Libya might have on price of oil though... which is my reason for raising some cash yesterday, in case BEXP unexpectedly retests recent lows.
PAL - I wasn't too happy with their Sleepy Giant mine acquisition, it hasn't worked out too well so far. $2000/oz gold production cost is just too high and with success may fall to reasonable levels but that hasn't happened. Look at what gold producers have been doing with their capital, obtaining copper and silver resources. PAL could've used their capital to expand their palladium deposit instead of burning cash trying to get into the gold business.
ReplyDeleteMy question at this point is if they'll have to raise capital in order to develop their palladium deposit?
But what do I really know about PAL in the scheme of things? Not enough at this point to make a comprehensive decision.
Added more CTCT at $23.86. Now have 750 shs at $23.55 avg.
ReplyDeleteBlock trades:
ReplyDeleteRBY 2 for 20,000 total
PAL 8 for 188,887 total
PAL, just looking at price and seeing block trades tell me someone is up to something here. Interesting fundamental points CP.
I bought some SPY puts that expire today just to try to make a few bucks on a slow Friday and help cover my ass should we tank into the close...bought $134 puts expiring today at $.45.
ReplyDeleteI also actually decided to sell my CTCT at $23.7 (i swear) and used a little of that toward my purchase of the above referenced SPY puts. For some reason I'm just getting a feeling we sell off into the close.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9HTsW2aWBU
ReplyDeleteTOF - "SPY puts"
ReplyDeleteThanks for doing that, at least one of us must buy insurance. ;)
Sold MSFT
ReplyDeleteBought PAL, now 12 block trades
Chicken - no problem! I think we might close red today
ReplyDeleteScrew it...sold my puts at $.52. Taking a $500 gain.
ReplyDeleteNo need to bother with these...
Flipped the switch and bought calls expiring today on SPY $133 at $.55
ReplyDeleteMSFT to PAL. That's a pretty balanced lateral move ;)
ReplyDeleteSold my calls at a $100 loss. Net +$400 gain for the day in day trades...I'm done.
ReplyDeleteDecided to just buy some more MITK at $7.07...another 900 shares to go with my idiotic position size in the stock.
As most here know, the day before holidays have positive bias. Interestingly, the average SP 500 gain is .43% and we have been hovering around this percent for a few hours.
ReplyDeleteBTW, that's espn3 dot com for sports check it out sports fans. Soccer anyone?
MSFT, actually the more I look at the daily, the more I want to buy it back. PAL may be a blood in the streets buy here.
"Hey, didn't someone recently claim PM's were about to take a dive?"
ReplyDeleteBill has already made that mistake once, and it looks like he is not learning from past experiences. The dollar rally we are seeing now is due to concerns about Europe and a weakening Euro, and when this happened a year ago, traders switched from Euro BOTH into $USD and gold, which both went up simultaneously. Then, when concerns about Euro dissolved a little last summer, both $USD and gold went down (gold had a little pullback in its multi-year bull market, and the $USD resumed its multi-year bear market).
This time, it is obvious to me that we are seeing the real deal with PM strength. The silver rally got ahead of itself during QE2 and so a pullback was needed to shake out the weak hands. Gold has not corrected much at all (which in itself was a sign that the silver pullback will be short-lived), and this time gold seems to be leading the way up (today is not the first time during the last couple of weeks when gold is up as much or even more than silver). I would say that it is actually a sign of the current rally being the REAL DEAL, a slow and steady ascent in both gold and silver (as opposed to a crazy run-up and crash in silver alone).
And the RBY rally is right on schedule today -- it was pretty obvious yesterday that RBY was going to break $4.60 to the upside, and that the break would generate a violent spike up.
PAL just jumped .14 with 15 block trades.
ReplyDeleteCurrent mix is"
ReplyDeleteMDW
WPRT
AEM
AGRO/087
BTU
ANR
ADM/PA
PAL
Look at the 1-month chart of intraday prices for MITK -- it looks ready to explode up NOW...
ReplyDeleteSwitching from CADC at $3 into MITK at $6.90 was a smart thing to do. :))
ReplyDelete' As most here know, the day before holidays have positive bias.'
ReplyDeleteActually, I didn't know that. Thought the opposite.
Obviously the snapback in the euro and weaker dollar are lightening a fire under resources today.
ReplyDeleteWonder how long this will last.
Read Martin Zweig, although a bit dated, still priceless.
That's two players now in AGRO. OK, I'll look for a good entry. I've read plenty on it.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xACgZnt1wBo&feature=fvsr
ReplyDelete27K share bid for BEXP at this level.
ReplyDeleteDamm, I liked listening to Pink live in concert stoned.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gs3lQVyZPVg&NR=1
AGRO, Soros mgt top holding.
Today's pullback in GMO is probably the last chance to board that train. Since I already ran out of money, I just placed a buy limit order for 20 July $5 calls on GMO at the ask of $0.3 and got only 10 of them filled with ask moving to $0.35.
ReplyDeleteEverything is in the eyes of the beholder.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gs3lQVyZPVg&NR=1
Is it a holiday yet?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1yaIQP279k
And while I am at it, I just bought 10 July $4 calls on GMO at $0.85 and placed a buy limit order for 10 more such calls at $0.80.
ReplyDeleteI also just noticed that 10 more of my July $5 GMO calls got filled at $0.3 -- now I have a total of 20 such calls. Placing a sell limit order at $0.6 for them.
ReplyDeleteIn order to raise cash for all these GMO call purchases, I sold at $36.49 the 100 shares of SLW I purchased a few days ago at $34.62.
ReplyDeleteI also cancelled my buy limit order for a BEXP call at $4.50 -- no more buying power left...
ReplyDeleteAlso, just sold at $6.60 the 2 July $40 calls I purchased on ALGT a few weeks ago at $5. I figured that the correction in commodities is over, the oil price will steadily climb up now, and ALGT, being a travel company that trades inversely with the oil price, will suffer.
ReplyDeleteFirst FTWR, now BCON. Has the world gone mad?
ReplyDeleteThe 10 July $4 calls on GMO were filled at $0.80, and now I have 20 such calls at the average cost of $0.825. Let's see if my intuition about today's pullback in GMO being just a shakeout of weak hands before GMO rises above $5 proves correct...
ReplyDeleteNotice how today's intraday pullback stopped right at Wednesday's and Thursday's lows, all at $4.60. How much more clear can it be??? Buy GMO now, place a sell stop at $4.50 and let it ride.
ReplyDeletesold ADM/PA, last two up days on real light vol, suspect I'll be back soon.
ReplyDeleteTwo black snakes - Just arrived to eat baby mice as they were being born in a box on my front porch. The mice moved in about a month ago and I hadn't run them off yet. I guess now I won't need to... ;)
ReplyDeleteGMO - Yeah, a couple of hours ago I had placed a buy order @ $4.55, a point where I saw it hesitate on the way up. It wasn't hit, of course. Maybe it'll fill Monday...
ReplyDeleteCP -- when you get such a huge pullback, you shouldn't be greedy and just buy the stock at the ask. If you are concerned about the pullback continuing, buy 1/2 position at the ask so as to make sure you get SOME, and then place a buy limit for the other 1/2 some ways below.
ReplyDeleteGMO - David, I'm not thoroughly convinced the shakeout is complete. These guys are pretty ruthless with their fakeouts, I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't take it back to $4 pretty soon. My $4.55 buy order is small, b/c I sold a few too many yesterday due to a calculation oversight and wanted to add those shares back.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Also, I think if we don't get some water permit news in June, the price is liable to slide on down to $3 pretty quickly. Hopefully that doesn't happen...
ReplyDelete"My $4.55 buy order is small, b/c I sold a few too many yesterday due to a calculation oversight and wanted to add those shares back."
ReplyDeleteWell, if you sold "a few too many yesterday", then you should have tried *extra* hard to get them back today at a better price. And if they take it back to $4, then you'll just put another 20% of you port into GMO. The most sure strategy with such winning stocks is to not try to second guess what computers are going to do, but simply buy a little each time the price drops, and then keep buying as the price is going down. You cannot go wrong with this strategy, assuming you ARE dealing with an ultimate winner. :))
David - Agreed, I should've been willing to pay a few more cents for those few extra shares. I anticipated the pullback would be a little more convincing, though. It's probably not done but if it is, that's okay too. ;)
ReplyDeleteI just spoke on the phone with an investor rep from RBY and he said that RBY is standing in line to get more electric power for their proposed operations (Goldcorp is in line too). It can take them several years to receive that power (say by 2014), but when they do, they will be operating at 1250 tpd. Their current 43-101 average grade for the F2 core zone is 17g/t, and their cost will be below $500/oz. Assuming a $1200 profit on each oz of gold sold in 2014 (when their mines get up to 1250 tpd), they will be making a $400M profit per year. They will need to raise $160M extra to complete the mine, and at $5/share that will mean increasing their share count to 250M. Thus, their EPS is likely to be $1.6/share, and if they are given the same P/E as Goldcorp (which is 20), RBY will be selling for $32/share in 2014. That's an 7X upside from here. So I am dedicating my current 2000 RBY shares as a long-term position.
ReplyDeleteIt amazes me how some people still choose to invest in the broad stock indices, which have the highest valuation now outside of the 2000 and 2007 peaks and thus have a horrible expected long-term return, while totally ignoring the mining sector, where some companies have THE BEST EVER valuations right now, after the huger surge in gold and silver and a recent major pullback in the mining sector. To me it's a no-brainer problem now -- do buy and hold of a basket of undervalued miners and watch your portfolio go up manyfold over the next few years.
ReplyDeleteLooks like Chavez is his last chance...
ReplyDeleteTripoli, Libya (CNN) -- Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has joined American and other European leaders in calling for Moammar Gadhafi to step down from power, a shift that appears to indicate a closing diplomatic window for the longtime Libyan strongman.
Moscow has been a strong critic of the NATO-led mission in Libya, arguing that the scope of the organization's air campaign against Gadhafi's forces far exceeds the civilian protection mandate approved by the U.N. Security Council.
Medvedev's call for Gadhafi to step aside came at the end of the Group of Eight summit in Deauville, France, on Friday. The G8 includes the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Canada, Japan, Germany, Italy and Russia.
The G8 leaders also issued a written statement Friday expressing support for the democratic uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa.
The summit leaders agree that "the regime of Gadhafi has lost its legitimacy and he must leave," Medvedev said, according to Russia's state-run RIA Novosti news agency. "This was decided unanimously."
His statement came on the heels of a request from the other G8 leaders to have the Russian leader mediate a settlement.
Earlier, Gadhafi's government also called for a Russian mediation, a sign that the Libyan leader may be searching for a way to bring about an end to the months-long war.
"It amazes me how some people still choose to invest in the broad stock indices, which have the highest valuation now outside of the 2000 and 2007 peaks and thus have a horrible expected long-term return, while totally ignoring the mining sector, where some companies have THE BEST EVER valuations right now, after the huger surge in gold and silver and a recent major pullback in the mining sector. To me it's a no-brainer problem now -- do buy and hold of a basket of undervalued miners and watch your portfolio go up manyfold over the next few years. "
ReplyDeleteDavid - not sure I completely agree given the monstrous run in the metals over the past 10 years, but you're probably right...doesn't feel like we have hit a top yet in Gold/Silver/etc.
I'd personally prefer to stick with secular bull markets in things I can truly value...the issue with gold and silver is you really can't determine the true value of them...you can also theorize as to why they should be higher or lower. So instead I'd rather stick to something I can conceptualize, that I know the business model of, and that is aided by structural changes. That's why MITK is so alluring to me.
http://www.xconomy.com/san-diego/2011/05/27/fueled-by-mobile-transaction-technology-mitek-systems-raises-15m-for-nasdaq-move/
"you can also theorize" meant you can always theorize...
ReplyDeleteI been busy with other things today but did make a trade at a profit, mostly to lighten up for the long weekend. It was sell AGRO at 11.90 so that probably makes only T3D as a holder. Held only over two overnights after entry at 11.65. Nice company with a lot of land.
ReplyDeleteFrom Bloomberg:
ReplyDeleteThe following is an analysis of Soros Fund Management LLC as of March 31, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on 05/16/2011.
Top Positions by Market Value
Company Name Ticker Market Value Current Change
(USD $) Position In Position
Adecoagro SA AGRO US 366,099,182 27,158,693 27,158,693
Interoil Corp IOC US 302,092,114 4,047,322 -386,700
Motorola Solutions Inc MSI US 200,238,461 4,480,610 3,849,936
Monsanto Co MON US 192,139,195 2,658,998 -632,369
Dendreon Corp DNDN US 174,861,694 4,671,699 473,003
Visteon Corp VC US 133,360,284 2,134,106 2,134,106
Citigroup Inc C US 129,881,833 2,938,503 1,866,823
Westport Innovations Inc WPRT US 121,936,336 5,547,604 1,021,168
Emdeon Inc-Class A EM US 115,219,010 7,152,018 -635,200
Wells Fargo & Co WFC US 111,146,721 3,505,100 2,936,300
Top New Buys by Market Value
Company Name Ticker Market Value Current Change
(USD $) Position In Position
Adecoagro SA AGRO US 366,099,182 27,158,693 27,158,693
Visteon Corp VC US 133,360,284 2,134,106 2,134,106
Charter Communication-A CHTR US 38,003,334 750,609 750,609
Itau Unibanco Hldng-Pref ADR ITUB US 32,514,398 1,351,950 1,351,950
HCA Holdings Inc HCA US 23,709,000 700,000 700,000
Top Sell Outs by Market Value
Company Name Ticker MV Change Current Change
(USD $) Position In Position
Plains Exploration & Product PXP US -151,623,664 0 -4,717,600
Best Buy Co Inc BBY US -72,228,422 0 -2,106,399
iShares Gold Trust IAU US -69,500,000 0 -5,000,000
Wal-Mart Stores Inc WMT US -50,553,982 0 -937,400
Lowe's Cos Inc LOW US -21,453,432 0 -855,400
Top Position Increases by Market Value
Company Name Ticker MV Change Current Change
(USD $) Position In Position
Motorola Solutions Inc MSI US 176,811,318 4,480,610 3,849,936
Wells Fargo & Co WFC US 93,519,609 3,505,100 2,936,300
CVS Caremark Corp CVS US 90,454,099 2,926,676 2,639,376
Danaher Corp DHR US 81,441,970 1,871,770 1,538,870
Citigroup Inc C US 79,191,369 2,938,503 1,866,823
Top Position Decreases By Market Value
Company Name Ticker MV Change Current Change
(USD $) Position In Position
SPDR Gold Trust GLD US -648,100,122 49,400 -4,672,408
Delta Air Lines Inc DAL US -168,334,683 1,763,300 -12,968,051
NovaGold Resources Inc NG US -138,759,076 3,492,100 -9,413,042
Coca-Cola Enterprises CCE US -57,599,097 52,900 -2,306,000
Kinross Gold Corp KGC US -53,395,866 1,379,400 -2,582,700
SOURCE: SEC 13F-HR
FILER: Soros Fund Management LLC
QUARTER ENDED: 03/31/2011
SEC RECEIVED: 05/16/2011
link: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-16/soros-fund-management-holdings-in-1st-quarter-13f-alert.html?cmpid=yho
ReplyDeleteBy this time they have probably changed.