Friday, May 27, 2011
05/27/11 White Bird
Another shout out to vanillabean- MIA, but never forgotten.
It's Friday night, half the world's partying, the other half with family/friends. Alone in solitary? Not a problem, amigo.
Boomers- the greatest generation. I've often wondered if it's possible to duplicate the sixties- a time when youth, rock 'n roll, free love, innocence, war, civil rights, revolution, and the American dream all intersected for a moment.
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At home, not partying, and kinda alone.
ReplyDeleteOK, here's one I'm going to do some serious work on...ANW.
See edit to main post.
ReplyDeleteMark- What brand of liquor are you referring to?
ReplyDeleteThe type sailors need it appears.
ReplyDeleteStoli in the glass while research commences.
Technically, believe it or not, I'm the last year to be a boomer. As usual, missed all the really fun stuff.
ReplyDeleteGot to do a dinner soon....Once your paroled of course.
ReplyDeletevb's probably disappointed none of us ever did the right thing and pick up the check. I'm delegating the role of gentleman to you- the Boomer with the least seniority.
ReplyDeleteI checked in once or twice during market hours, but man the bulls were lame.
ReplyDeleteBe happy to just to see our good friend again.
ReplyDeleteBTW- That tourny we played in was in Morgan Hill, not Milpitas like I thought. Didn't bother...Hell, Petaluma is probably closer.
ReplyDeleteWe should have our own annual conference.
ReplyDelete(a) Find a Wi-Fi hot spot that opens early and closes late. No, not the Toyota dealer.
(b) Order a few drinks.
(c) Play a little pool.
(d) Around 11 am, watch David make 10-15 trades.
(e) Dissect his trades with our usual incisive commentary.
(f) Lunch.
(g) Take the Blue and Gold to Alcatraz to ponder the secrets of 2nd's market calls.
(h) Plan dinner.
(i) Have dinner.
(j) Watch the open in Asia.
(k) Drop Mark and jb off at the closest sports bar.
Man, I can't wait to get out of solitary.
ReplyDelete(a) through (k) pretty sums up the true pleasures of life. All in one day.
ReplyDeleteAlright. No extra hour in solitary on Friday nights. Lights out. Back early Saturday morning.
ReplyDeleteI'm a pre-boomer by about 5 or 6 years. I also missed out on some of the fun stuff. Lived through all of it though. How can anyone in his 20's in the 60's not be affected?
ReplyDeletea through k would be a dream day for me!
ReplyDeleteHun...Looks like Schawb is doing mobile check deposit now. It's advertised on the screen I see everyday. Honestly, for them, it's huge for me. Had to mail a check in before. Now, 1 day processing when it used to take about a week.
ReplyDeleteGold - Actually, it may be extremely difficult to value gold simply because we really have no idea of how the future turns out. Central bankers have kept a larger percentage of their reserves in US dollars in lieu of gold since the gold standard was dropped and the dollar had performed quite well. Only now, that trade looks very overcrowded considering the level of debt owed not only by the federal government but the private individual as well. It isn't a question of which currency is the least offensive, it's a question of debt overhang and how/if that debt can and will be managed.
ReplyDeleteThe path gold bugs are (eagerly?) anticipating is that the FED will attempt to print away this debt, and perhaps they have kind of, but I still haven't received my check (unless it's in the form of my increasing portfolio and smallish loss on my real estate).
I think the FED remains in the catbird seat and can at almost any instant make some bearish statement that would cause huge equities losses and fling us right back into a deflationary environment, so I have complete confidence they can maintain control. But, it's my opinion that the only way the debt can be paid without asset depreciation and all the nastiness that comes with it (as witnessed in 2008, for example), is by currency devaluation.
Regardless, as central bankers seek to diversify (assuming they realize there's little hope for dollar appreciation in the real world), they're probably going to add to their gold positions.
Back to valuation:
Anyway, if we were to attempt at placing a theoretical value on gold, we might attempt to extrapolate the value of gold based on historical commodities data from before the end of the gold standard.
I think the easiest and perhaps most accurate extrapolation would come from a natural resources comparison if one could somehow normalize out depletion and reconcile technological improvements (do they cancel? I doubt it).
Or, instead of attempting to perform that calculation, why not go straight for the jugular instead, and let the market work out the calculation on it's own? After all, gold is money and it's portable but what does money go after, what's it's end use?
Life as we know it would change drastically if commodities suddenly became unaffordable, independent of which currency was involved. Like gold, commodities have no debt obligations.
Perhaps it's a circular argument?
CADC - Looks like an organizational restructure in progress, not likely good for investor confidence I'm guessing.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-ACM-Announces-Board-iw-3151510051.html?x=0&.v=1
"David - not sure I completely agree given the monstrous run in the metals over the past 10 years, but you're probably right...doesn't feel like we have hit a top yet in Gold/Silver/etc."
ReplyDeleteTOF, my point was that DESPITE the monstrous run we had in gold/silver since the start of QE2, some junior miners have barely moved, even though their fundamentals have improved TREMENDOUSLY (if there was SOME doubt about their ultimate profitability and viability before, then there is no such doubt now at the current gold/silver prices).
"I'd personally prefer to stick with secular bull markets in things I can truly value...the issue with gold and silver is you really can't determine the true value of them..."
TOF, we don't need to value gold/silver -- they are highly liquid and the market does it for us. The junior miners, however, are mostly below the radar, but it is easy to value them given a certain price of gold/silver. THEY are the ones that are obviously undervalued given the current prices of gold/silver.
2nd loved the VIDEO! I'm having a flashback man.
ReplyDeleteI think me and Mark are the same age. The ass end of the baby boomer's.
agree a through k sounds like a dream day to me.
ReplyDeletemy calendar is wide open...LOL
I did add to my SPY position at the close, up trend on a friday, going into a 3 day weekend, continues up on the following tuesday.
Hide the women and children - jb is drawing fib fans and vwap lines.
ReplyDeletejb - This device will enhance the experience:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.eros-therapy.com/index.cfm?optionid=530
CP - looks like I've got a lead on mrs. jb's xmas gift...thx!
ReplyDeleteMost weekends I go riding from my house east along the Peatluma River. The river then empties into the bay. A few years ago, Petaluma finished a new waste water facility. This caused a huge uproar here. Why? Well, it's is a state of the art, non chemical, recycling plant. It cost about 3 times what a traditional plant would cost. The finished naturally treated water is then released into the river. I ride past, and around this plant during my ride.
ReplyDeleteToday, 2 of the Swans that have taken up residence there were showing off their newborn. I rode home to grab the kids and the camera.
http://www.screencast.com/t/JAwjNv4fidX
http://www.screencast.com/t/M4mPrWqDa
http://www.screencast.com/t/gsQhKxBOOmG
http://www.screencast.com/t/vzsyziFNUsX
nice pix bro! did the girls catch up to the grey one?
ReplyDeleteMany more swans to you and Petaluma and may they not be of the dreaded black variety. Nice pics, good story.
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