Monday, May 30, 2011

05/31/11 Hope they never end this song...



...We could rally all year long...

Man, Boz looks and sounds exactly like the guy all musicians would want to be in their 60s- one who's aged well and at peak form. Beautiful, understated/effortless rendition of the closing track to Urban Cowboy.

Let's hope the same for the market indexes.

The reason this market won't go down? I think it may simply be a longer-term version of the adage that price moves always continue longer than we think possible.

In this case, a longer-term version of the short squeeze may also be in play- shorts get stopped out, only to short again...and again...at higher levels.
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83 comments:

  1. 2nd_aveMay 30, 2011 at 4:15 PM

    Hit me with a Stoli.

    ReplyDelete
  2. 2nd_aveMay 30, 2011 at 4:17 PM

    Prime rib. Lobster tails on the barbie. Baked potatoes with everything on it. Cherry cobbler.

    Going all out this Memorial Day.

    Hit me with another Stoli.

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  3. Telestar3dMay 30, 2011 at 4:20 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

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  4. JBmaderaMay 30, 2011 at 4:25 PM

    wow, what time should we be there 2nd?

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  5. Telestar3dMay 30, 2011 at 4:26 PM

    For those who gave their lives or limbs. Thank you. T3d

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GkmeiDsxXRk&feature=related

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVClihTMN-k&feature=related

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SYDO3YE2AI&feature=related

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  6. 2nd_aveMay 30, 2011 at 4:32 PM

    jb- I had breakfast in SSF with one of my old mentors from the University of Michigan. Now resides in Clovis (he was in town with his daughter and son-in-law). Now I can say I know a little more about your area. Selma. Hanford. King's Canyon.

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  7. JBmaderaMay 30, 2011 at 4:40 PM

    Clovis is a great little town, excellent Rodeo each spring.

    Come on down 2nd!

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  8. 2nd_aveMay 30, 2011 at 4:50 PM

    Definitely considering a day trip to King's Canyon. The problem with California is there are so many things to do, you can end up missing what would be considered can't-miss spots anywhere else.

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  9. 2nd_aveMay 30, 2011 at 4:52 PM

    Why am I thinking we may breach DJIA 13000 this week- pretty much when no one expects it. Just saying.

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  10. MarkWMay 30, 2011 at 4:53 PM

    Wow, what a spread! Almost Stoli time here!

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  11. 2nd_aveMay 30, 2011 at 5:03 PM

    Yeah, I hope it's not 'last supper' time.

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  12. MarkWMay 30, 2011 at 5:12 PM

    Can't be 'last supper' if I'm not there, right ;)

    What type of lobster tails?

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  13. 2nd_aveMay 30, 2011 at 5:22 PM

    Live. Wife bought a few at Ranch 99.

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  14. 2nd_aveMay 30, 2011 at 5:22 PM

    I have no clue as to species.

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  15. 2nd_aveMay 30, 2011 at 5:26 PM

    DJIA +0.27%. Multiply that by a factor of ten, and I'll have what I'm looking for.

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  16. MarkWMay 30, 2011 at 5:42 PM

    Never heard of Ranch 99. Man, I'd love to have one of those up here.

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  17. 2nd_aveMay 30, 2011 at 6:10 PM

    Alright, DJIA +0.45%. I'll take 5x that.

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  18. MarkWMay 30, 2011 at 6:20 PM

    50%+ move off the lows for ADES. Just saying...

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  19. MarkWMay 30, 2011 at 6:59 PM

    And crude takes the lead in globex...

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  20. illiniMay 30, 2011 at 7:03 PM

    Man, I took my new laptop out on my condo patio and tried to post but it wouldn't let me in even with Google password. Maybe its because I have not set up an email account yet on the laptop. Thats a pain which I have avoided so far.

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  21. MarkWMay 30, 2011 at 7:30 PM

    Illini- Shouldn't have mattered.

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  22. illiniMay 30, 2011 at 7:56 PM

    Thanks Mark, I am back inside and may try again with Win 7 laptop using Int Explorer, until I change over to Chrome as on my tower, maybe.

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  23. illiniMay 30, 2011 at 8:31 PM

    No luck. May sleep on it. I am not a real mobile person, just wanted a newer computer and chose a laptop as a backup to main and a second screen for second account. That part is working out. Heck, I don't even have a cellphone. I am a fixed based operator. Retired folks can do that. MITK is a holding, however.

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  24. AnonymousMay 30, 2011 at 10:01 PM

    2nd - Loved the posts about your religion. I love hearing people's opinions on religion. I consider myself Christian but from time to time I have a hard time believing the whole Christ story...well, I believe he lived and was a very religious man, I just don't quite understand how it was a big deal that he gave his life for us because if he was really God's son and was going to live with God forever then he would have known that that wasn't really a sacrifice. That's my main issue with Christianity. Another thing I still question is the whole theory about how our conscience (i.e., the voice in our heads) is really God speaking to us.

    As far as everything else, though, I believe in God creating our world and I believe there is an afterlife...the rest I'm still formulating my opinion...

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  25. 2nd_aveMay 31, 2011 at 3:44 AM

    tof- It was never an intellectual debate for me.

    However, the concept of the 'Trinity' can be difficult to grasp intellectually. I don't try that hard. I would just say it's obvious that in the process of becoming a man, Jesus would have experienced the weaknesses of human nature. One of which is doubt/lack of faith. I think he really meant it when he asked why God had forsaken him.

    You're dealing with Christianityn the way it should be dealt with. How can any of us NOT have questions? If it was an easy decision to make, it would require little faith.

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  26. 2nd_aveMay 31, 2011 at 3:45 AM

    DJIA futes +109. Now a simple doubling would do it.

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  27. JBmaderaMay 31, 2011 at 4:19 AM

    looks like the 6E/ES correlation is still intact, now which one is the leader and which one is the follower.....we break the round number at 44 then I'll short the 6E, 3 cars.

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  28. JBmaderaMay 31, 2011 at 4:50 AM

    two cars off at 4381!! stop to 4390, one runner

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  29. JBmaderaMay 31, 2011 at 5:10 AM

    moved my stop up too tight, runner off at 4380.

    done for the day

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  30. BB CanadaMay 31, 2011 at 6:05 AM

    2nd,

    re your comment from yesterday on not trading on someone else's opinion, I am 100% in agreement.

    My point is that in my analysis, stocks are quite cheap and should be bought. Stats like the one I posted help to support that cheapness.

    I personally own no mutual funds or ETF's and very few fortune 500 stocks. I am finding a lot of very cheap small caps and this macro data showing the market being inexpensive just supports my analysis.

    I also post it as many people pick up on the negative factors in the market and you need to understand that there are positives out there which make owning stocks a good risk/reward scenario at this time.

    Nice looking morning this AM. All this talk about Greece, etc. the last couple of weeks is the type of stuff that can distract you from finding the good stocks in the market. Greece will get worked out one way or another and doesn't really affect most of the stocks I own - except National Bank of Greece (NBG), which I bought way too early last year at $2.80!

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  31. MarkWMay 31, 2011 at 6:12 AM

    JB- Your 6E trading sounds like my sex life.

    Oh, NOKer...What has become of you :(

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  32. MarkWMay 31, 2011 at 6:26 AM

    I might fade this move a little this morning. Maybe 2K shares of BEXP.

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  33. MarkWMay 31, 2011 at 6:31 AM

    2000 BEXP off @ 31.87.

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  34. MarkWMay 31, 2011 at 6:50 AM

    Important area here for use few daily players left here. First real dip was bought and is now selling off a tad. Will those dip buyers get burned? I'll look to the 2nd move.

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  35. 2nd_aveMay 31, 2011 at 6:56 AM

    The +125 on the DJIA isn't doing it for me. It needs to build on the gap up.

    Side note- the beauty of buy-and-hold is being able to capture any gains on overnight gaps. It saves me the dilemma of deciding whether to buy into something like this morning's strength.

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  36. MarkWMay 31, 2011 at 7:13 AM

    CP- Are you seeing the same day range for GMO @ 4.36-5.06?

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  37. MarkWMay 31, 2011 at 7:19 AM

    SPY R1 didn't hold, though I don't give it as much value in the first hour.

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  38. MarkWMay 31, 2011 at 7:22 AM

    Sorry, that was R2 on SPY obviously.

    XLE @ R1 now...Let's see if that holds.

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  39. MarkWMay 31, 2011 at 7:34 AM

    2000 BEXP back on @ 30.85.

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  40. MarkWMay 31, 2011 at 7:40 AM

    2000 BEXP off @ 31.08. Don't like the way XLE is dicking around with the underside of R1 here.

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  41. JBmaderaMay 31, 2011 at 7:42 AM

    bad pmi, bad housing and bad consumer confidence, yikes....I need mr market to suck up and move higher, climb that wall of worry

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  42. JBmaderaMay 31, 2011 at 7:44 AM

    a ton of volume just gotten eaten up at 36.50-36.75, ES could pop but I won't go long unless we go above 37.50, ll 37.50 5 cars

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  43. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2011 at 7:46 AM

    GMO - Added back @ $4.55, sell order for those @ $4.95

    ~~~~~~~Rinse and repeat~~~~~~

    Will submit another order to add those back @ $4.55

    RSI(7) is above 70 by now...

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  44. JBmaderaMay 31, 2011 at 7:48 AM

    I'm taking 2 cars off at +.25 and moving my stop up, we didn't move thru w/force

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  45. JBmaderaMay 31, 2011 at 7:50 AM

    s.o. on trailers, dumb trade

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  46. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2011 at 7:56 AM

    RSX - Up on Russian rate rise...

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  47. 2nd_aveMay 31, 2011 at 8:16 AM

    Quite possibly shaking out weak hands here prior to taking off later in the day. Just an opinion.

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  48. Telestar3dMay 31, 2011 at 8:21 AM

    Wow, Boz, what a performance by the band.

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  49. Telestar3dMay 31, 2011 at 8:26 AM

    Many material stocks opening's were sold like there is no tomorrow, ST move is getting tired to me.

    PAL continues with 8 block trades today.

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  50. Telestar3dMay 31, 2011 at 8:29 AM

    And Mark, sells BEXP at top tick only to re-buy .01 of low tick, that's insane trading.

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  51. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2011 at 8:54 AM

    CCJ - Interesting how it bounced off the 50SMA for another trip downward...

    Market applauds Siemens for bailing on nuclear:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-22/siemens-decides-to-abandon-nuclear-power-handelsblatt-reports.html

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  52. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2011 at 8:59 AM

    GMO - "CP- Are you seeing the same day range for GMO @ 4.36-5.06?"

    Actually, I see a range of $4.40 to $4.88 based on action from many months ago. It could start trading at $3 if this keeps up.

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  53. JBmaderaMay 31, 2011 at 9:05 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

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  54. JBmaderaMay 31, 2011 at 9:06 AM

    t3d - Mark and I are bookends: I buy at 1 tick from the top and sell at LOD. And I've been spending a ton of time looking at my trading log trying to figure out why my entry/exit indicators seem to be mis-firing.

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  55. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2011 at 9:48 AM

    Something dampened the mood....

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  56. MarkWMay 31, 2011 at 10:18 AM

    T- 13 minutes until David chimes in on housing.

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  57. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2011 at 10:19 AM

    BEXP - Well the gap up had to close, didn't it?

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  58. MarkWMay 31, 2011 at 10:25 AM

    CP- Yeah, I had an order in for 30.49 @ S1. I kinda agree with T3D here, or maybe it's just me, but the market does seem tired here.

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  59. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2011 at 10:27 AM

    BB - NBG - I've been wanting to buy that one, PMI as well...

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  60. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2011 at 10:36 AM

    "the market does seem tired here."

    I'm not so sure about that Mark, the dollar has fallen too far for stocks to be selling off unless the dollar is about to begin climbing. My dollar target is 69.90 with gold pointing north of $1600 before the reversal comes, then I'll lock in gains and make a new plan from there.

    My current bet is we're in the countdown stage, but I've got a fair amount of cash on hand in case the reality is the other way around.

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  61. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2011 at 10:46 AM

    Otherwise, what's the point of maintaining low rates if fundamentals don't support commodity prices? Must be employment, which does support commodity prices.

    There are a couple of other themes, BEXP was trading at this price when oil was $75, and GMO may receive a water permit ruling before end of June.

    Who knows, the risk doesn't seem too terribly great and I don't want to be kicking myself for being absent on final exam day.

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  62. AnonymousMay 31, 2011 at 10:57 AM

    As Mark likes to call him, my boyfriend:
    http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm

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  63. MarkWMay 31, 2011 at 10:59 AM

    What's this nonsense with SAP/CSCO?

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  64. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2011 at 11:06 AM

    FCX - Look at this chart, sure looks a lot better to me than a couple of weeks ago.

    And copper/oil and gold have positive correlations again, aside perhaps for the past few hours. Today's gold weakness may be signaling something if it doesn't start moving.

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  65. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2011 at 11:30 AM

    Debt ceiling vote tonight????

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  66. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2011 at 11:43 AM

    S&P - That's two gaps up in a row that need to fill at some point, right?

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  67. MarkWMay 31, 2011 at 11:50 AM

    CP- Is that some lame 'preliminary' vote?

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  68. MarkWMay 31, 2011 at 11:52 AM

    REDF- How many people have to be sitting at their computers to make it do that? Crazy.

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  69. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2011 at 12:11 PM

    Mark - I have no idea, saw a comment that could be fabricated for all I know.

    I guess I should turn my radio on... Thought one of you may have heard or seen it on your end.

    REDF - How do you know it isn't just one computer tossing out random numbers with limits filtered through some kind of psychologically disruptive algorithm that make it do that? If I throw a bunch of numbers at you fast enough under certain conditions of my choosing, aren't you likely to become disoriented and make mistakes?

    Buy and sell yourself one hundred shares at a time fast enough or in bursts, can't make the price move where you like?

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  70. MarkWMay 31, 2011 at 12:12 PM

    CP- Nothing I have heard.

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  71. KyleMay 31, 2011 at 12:21 PM

    REDF --

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Rumor-Rediff-com-moves-theflyonthewall-966788888.html?x=0&.v=1

    ReplyDelete
  72. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2011 at 12:31 PM

    REDF - Yep...

    Rumor: Rediff.com moves up on speculation they will start a Youtube like site in India theflyonthewall.com +7.01%

    ReplyDelete
  73. JBmaderaMay 31, 2011 at 12:31 PM

    re: SAP and CSCO - total nonsense, reminds me of the kind of deals I was doing just prior to the bubble bursting.....FD - I was recently laid off by SAP so my opinion is certainly biased.....but that type of deal is still total BS

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  74. JBmaderaMay 31, 2011 at 12:36 PM

    if we can get TRE to $107 from $7 then I will officially be a full time portfolio manager

    ReplyDelete
  75. BB CanadaMay 31, 2011 at 12:40 PM

    Chickenpookie,

    I do think NBG will work out. They're profitable, have raised capital and say they are one of the best capitalized banks in Europe. Plus, they have they have expanded outside Greece to several countries with their biggest holding being the Turkish Finansbank that they are looking to sell part of to raise even more capital.

    I think the big issue with NBG is how much of their capital is Government of Greece bonds and what happens to this if Greece defaults, etc.

    I don't think this is a high probability, but having said that, it is one of my smallest holdings and I haven't averaged down as the price has come down (which I usually do).

    Let me know if you buy.

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  76. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2011 at 1:17 PM

    TRE - $7.60 looks like an important milestone, next stop after would be $9.25

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  77. JBmaderaMay 31, 2011 at 1:35 PM

    CP - almost correct re: TRE, next stop $107.60!!

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  78. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2011 at 5:05 PM

    BEXP - I sure do wish I'd bought more at my entry price....

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  79. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2011 at 5:40 PM

    NBG - BB, Thanks for sharing and I'll post the trade if I do make one, I'm not sure I'm capable of making such a leap of faith. ;)

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  80. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2011 at 6:03 PM

    JB - I think gold will need to start moving in order for TRE to reach your target! ;)

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  81. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2011 at 10:57 PM

    "China RTO Yongye Gets $50 Million From Morgan Stanley"

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  82. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2011 at 11:10 PM

    FTWR - +21%

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  83. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2011 at 11:17 PM

    PIMCO - I wonder if they missed the entire ride to the lowest rate of the year for the 10yr?

    ReplyDelete

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