Tuesday, May 31, 2011
05/31/11 Red House
Boz paying tribute to Hendrix.
Can't say much about today's action. We can hope for one of the following scenarios:
(a) The market set a small bear trap mid-morning + a larger one at the close.
(b) Stranded bulls will be lining up Wednesday to buy tickets at any price from scalpers.
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BB Canada- My advice against relying on one man's opinion was actually in reference to illini's earlier post the evening before.
ReplyDeleteRB- Your the only one who will understand this. Right now, the market faces 2 serious threats.
ReplyDelete1- Zombies... (as is always the case)
2- Brain cancer causing cell phones.
Trade accordingly.
Well I only listen to BB the rest of you can go to Bullhead!
ReplyDeletePoor NOK has both killing their stock
ReplyDeleteYep. From what I hear, the cheap ones put you on the fast track to chemo.
ReplyDeleteI have just returned from a 2-day vacation in Calistoga with my family and I see the market decided to make 2nd_ave happy today. :)
ReplyDeleteAs for me, I think it is time to take advantage of that 3% offer for cash from Citibank until August 2012 and put some extra cash into ECUXF. So I just placed a buy limit order for 5000 shares at $0.85 and for 4000 shares at $0.84. ECUXF will obviously be above $1 next summer, so borrowing at 3% to invest in it for a year makes total sense to me.
ADP. Fugly.
ReplyDeleteLNG...Saw this yesterday. 11M shares @ 10.35. Very good reference point to trade off of.
ReplyDeleteSerious question. How does one buy Greek debt?
ReplyDeleteLooks like the banks are taking the ADP report the hardest.
ReplyDeletehey bro - pretty sure that other than institutions only greek citizens can buy greek govt debt
ReplyDeleteHard to trade on a daily basis, no? Good news, bad news, good news, bad news...
ReplyDeleteDamn, they've given back 2/3 of yesterday's gains.
ReplyDeleteThat's a nice knock against the post to shake off a few ticks.
ReplyDeleteGreek debt - Buy something that holds Greek debt, like a bank? Not sure which ones though.
ReplyDeleteAs of yesterday's close, there were two open gaps to fill on the S&P, right?
ReplyDeleteBEXP - See how weak a stock can get when I'm in? Well, maybe I'll get my chance to add.
We may need to shave off a few hundred points off the DJIA in order to gain a thousand points afterwards.
ReplyDeleteBidding BEXP @ 29.83. 3 ticks below S2.
ReplyDeleteBought the panic in nls...2k shs at $2.16
ReplyDeleteLet it rain, let it rain, let it rain.
ReplyDeleteUXG vs TRE - Based on the chart, UXG would be my horse today.
ReplyDeleteSeriously though, I don't expect the U$D is going to fly anytime soon but I could be wrong (not likely).
ReplyDeleteNew high price on 10 year today just for Pimpco?
YONG - The digital trade. You'd think MS's money would provide the necessary validity for a lasting rally... Is it luck? Go figure.
ReplyDeleteIt's all good, guys. From my perspective, this needs to happen.
ReplyDelete2nd - Haven't they finished servicing your car yet, or are you one of those customers that visits every morning to munch a few doughnuts? ;)
ReplyDelete"From my perspective, this needs to happen."
ReplyDeleteYou're right, otherwise we'd be in overbought territory.
Gold - Look at it move, confirming that the currency trade remains in play.
ReplyDelete2n said, "Hard to trade on a daily basis, no? Good news, bad news, good news, bad news..."
ReplyDeleteMy first mentor like to say, "if it was easy anyone could do it," and "it beats working all day on a jack hammer."
What do you think?
liked
ReplyDeleteAdded 1k at $2.11, NLS
ReplyDeleteAdded another 1k NLS at $2.1
ReplyDeleteTRE - Broke through $7.61, there she blows!
ReplyDeletego TRE, go!!! it's the only thing separating me from the bread line......next stop $50
ReplyDeleteAdded another 2k NLS at $2.06...total 6k now.
ReplyDeletetof - what's the play w/nls?
ReplyDeleteAdded last lot of NLS at $2.1..1,500 shares. Total 7,500.
ReplyDeleteJB > NLS is extremely oversold in my opinion. Their CEO stepped down, which I think exacerbated the selloff. He was part of a private equity team that came in and turned things around over the past 2 years. I believe their fund also sold their stake in the company. I'm assuming this is part of the selloff. People are forgetting that NLS has reported two consecutive positive earnings quarters in a row, way ahead of what analysts wwere expecting. Technically, the setup is great too, with the 200 DMA right here at $2.13. I think a bounce comes soon.
Hit the road on AGRO and ANR, do not want to be greedy.
ReplyDeleteADM.PA never going back, converted to shares today.
thx tof!
ReplyDeleteGo TRE, nice B/O.
ReplyDeleteBEXP - Added @ $29.80, but yipes it went lower yet....
ReplyDeletePlease come back!
1000 BEXP @ 29.48. Also filled 1000 @ 29.83.
ReplyDeleteI'm just seeing some panic here. Hopefully I don't get run over at the exit door.
Anyone know how to set the time zone so it is your own? Seems to be pacific time.
ReplyDeleteThanks
BB- Not sure, but someone did it before.
ReplyDeletetime zone - I expect we have no control because software usually sucks, some less than others.
ReplyDeleteHm... The market IS trying hard to confuse us about its future direction. Even the spike in gold has reversed itself!
ReplyDeleteSurprisingly, even though silver is down a decent amount today, ECUXF is flat (it did hit my buy limit order for 5000 shares at $0.85). Looks like people are waiting eagerly for the drill results from the massive high-grade sulphides. ECU drilled a couple of holes there in 2008 and found the grade to be 8X larger than the rest of their deposit. A couple of weeks ago ECU announced that they have reached the target zone and started collecting samples, so the results might even be out later this week.
Stocktwits comment of the day...
ReplyDelete"totally forgot I get 1cent Dividend from $BAC today YAAAAY...Fuckin POS."
yeah, the metals equities are very strong versus the market, the large seem to be holding better than the small generally. A good sign?
ReplyDeleteMy "best" Chinese auto parts stock, CAAS, has collapsed over the past 2 days. I purchased November $10 calls on it last week, which are WAY out of the money now. I don't like being long WAY out of the money options (except those on REDF, which are up nicely over the past 2 days and may soon get in-the-money), and so today I traded my 10 Nov $10 calls on CAAS at $0.8 for 5 Nov $5 calls at $2.80 (booked a $300 loss on the former).
ReplyDeleteNotice that with all this "panic" in the market today, $USD is barely up to yesterday's highs. I think this suggests that it has lost its appeal once again, and is on the way to making new lows.
ReplyDeleteJust looked at about 30 gold stocks, TRE and RGLD have the best charts and both are royalty plays, hmm.
ReplyDeleteDROOY is quite strong probably has something to do with the rand. The chart pattern is good too, but not as good as the two above.
What I don't understand is why traders don't just turn the tables and jam it to the U$D once and for all for being such a FUBAR...
ReplyDeleteDROOY- I like this one. The volume scares me though. Been following it for a while.
ReplyDeleteLOL, the only thing I can come up with is Tim must be selling more paper this week so in order to get a good rate they need to manufacture a panic.
ReplyDeleteIf any one it's interested in another Bakken play other than BEXP, NOG is pretty cheap right here. Easy stop @ 17.70 ish. I'd take it here, but I obviously have my hands full with BEXP.
ReplyDeleteIf you have done well in this last run-up the last two weeks, I think selling out is a good move. It is a very likely that I will liquidate all except core gold holdings by the end of the day and re-evaluate going forward.
ReplyDeleteBEXP, I like the play, but if oil trades to $85 its going lower. Let's see where is that cracked crystal ball of mine.
NOG, personally not too crazy about that chart pattern here and with the way the market is acting.
ReplyDeleteOther than being 7% away from current price 19.03; Mark what is your thinking on way you chose 17.70 ish as a stop? If you have time. TIA
I'm not really concerned about today's selling. We've haven't really done much since the start of May except move back and forth and now we are moving down towards the bottom of that range again.
ReplyDeleteThink it's a case (yet again) of bad macro news driving the market down, but the individual companies are doing fine and will continue to do so.
Oil, same story, hasn't really done much (unless you are a short term trader) since May 5th and still above $100. Most broker reports use lower estimates for valuing companies ($85 seems common), so if we just hang in around here, energy companies should rise over time.
BTW, don't forget to sell if/when you've got some gains on the table lest someone else is just a tad less greedy than you, LOL!
ReplyDelete"where is that cracked crystal ball of mine."
ReplyDeleteMine's covered with blood and puke, LOL!
SPY- Man, it's unusual to see a day with 7 distinct legs down.
ReplyDeleteJNPR - Someone got a lesson on what not to say at a conference...
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Juniper-says-wants-increase-theflyonthewall-3478587463.html?x=0&.v=1
BB, agree completely with what you say when one has a intermediate to LT focus.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I'm short-term orient, unlike most here now. The SP looks vulnerable here to me now and I think I can buy back at lower prices. Time will tell. Let's see where is that cracked crystal ball of mine. Heck it says we rally +227 tomorrow. Have a great day everyone, done blogging for the day. I can hear the applause thank goodness he is finally going to shut up!
T3D- Since it would be a swing trade, I like to look beyond the closest obvious stop so as not to be taken out by churn...That leaves me with a stop slightly below last Nov.'s pivot low on the 17th.
ReplyDeleteI'm also seriously considering selling some of the BEXP I picked up today and putting = $ amount into NOG.
Well correct me if I'm mistaken, but don't we now have a gap down that needs filling? I much prefer trading gaps down than gaps up...
ReplyDeleteKyle- I was thinking the same thing when I saw the price hit!
ReplyDeleteThanks Mark, I always like getting inside peoples heads. Bye now.
ReplyDeleteHEK???
ReplyDeleteL8tr T3D...Sorry it's so empty in there :)
UXG - I still think this one's priced for a great entry here.
ReplyDeleteCCJ - Seems like the news from Germany was bought, just like Germany is going to be buying power from their European neighbors unless they come to their senses.
ReplyDelete"LOL, the only thing I can come up with is Tim must be selling more paper this week so in order to get a good rate they need to manufacture a panic."
ReplyDeleteThat's EXACTLY what I was thinking last night. I think the bonds are being bid up now (and naturally money is moving from stocks into bonds upon seeing such a relative strength in bonds) so that when QE2 ends, the spike in interest rates will not initially shock anyone. Too bad I don't have any cash left to invest into TBT -- I think scaling into it at these levels would be a great trade.
ECUXF just hit my buy limit for 6000 shares at $0.84, and the actual execution price was $0.8362 -- how nice. :)
ReplyDeleteJNPR - That's quite a different strategy than the one projected by MSI...
ReplyDeleteMake that 10 down legs in SPY.
ReplyDelete1313 - Where are you???
ReplyDeleteJames K making some sense in a senseless market:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/unemployment-unemployment-rate-unemployment-report-job/6/1/2011/id/34886
Someone just gave up on gold and silver...
ReplyDeleteThat's putting it mildly David. Crazy day.
ReplyDeleteJames K - Yeah, that agrees with another comment I caught a few days ago about how the market can price in a phantom recession even before it doesn't occur.
ReplyDeleteGMO - There's $4.55 again...
ReplyDeleteHey, at least tomorrow's recession was all priced in today!
ReplyDeleteEven REDF finished the day in the red -- now ALL my watch list is red...
ReplyDeleteSmart traders sold when yesterday's low was violated...
ReplyDeleteSold the SPXU finally at close. Yesterday erased my gains, got my 5% back today...took it as we hit 1313.
ReplyDeleteHolding VXX as insurance against UXG, CCJ (both flat to up today).
Purchased BRKB and VZ today at close.
"Someone just gave up on gold and silver..."
ReplyDeleteYou can't pay your margin debt with gold and silver -- have to convert it to cash first...
Isn't it convenient how the economy turns "bad" just when the ongoing stimulus is about to expire. When QE1 expired in April 2010, stocks sold off in a short order and QE2 was conceived. Now with QE2 coming to an end, it looks like the market is begging for QE3. So today's sell-off in gold/silver (just like any sell-off in PMs) is a great buying opportunity. The US deficit will grow faster if the economy stays weak, and the ONLY way out of that deficit is printing money. So one way or the other, the money WILL be printed, and if we are indeed moving into a weak economic phase, then we'll just get new more printed sooner rather than later.
ReplyDeleteChina - Last night I heard the anticipated consumerism trend in China has stalled and actually reversed, the public has begun increasing their rate of saving.
ReplyDeleteGuys- Today's sell-off was terrific!
ReplyDeleteAnd it may get better. 1250 isnt out of the question with a bad jobs number friday. Not pushing my luck, net long again after selling big chunk of spxu. Eyeing a reentry into the b&h portfolio soon.
ReplyDelete"And it may get better."
ReplyDeleteYou may be right about that...
Matter of fact, 1257 is the intermediate term target for the sell signal that was generated by my Stops&Targets $$ algo today. Long term still bullish but would flip around 1240.
ReplyDeleteWhen a "target" is hit, that is resistance. If it goes through, then the target is reset with another signal and resistance point. In the case of 1257 it would be a continuation sell signal or maybe a buy partials opportunity to lock in profits.
ReplyDelete"Guys- Today's sell-off was terrific!"
ReplyDelete2nd_ave, the problem with the stock market is that any day's action can be explained as being a part of ANY future course of action, Up or Down...
I was pulling wire today. Did I miss anything in the market?
ReplyDeleteS&P Gap down - I take that back, the bad news is it appears there was no gap down as I had thought. Today's open was the same as yesterday's close!
ReplyDeleteGULP!
RB - Depends on if you were long or short but no matter I'd say you missed out on someone's fun.
ReplyDeleteWas good for me. I needed a day like today. Got me out of a hole I should have never jumped in.
ReplyDelete