Tuesday, May 10, 2011
5/10/11 I Feel Free
I can walk down the street, there's no one there
Though the pavements are one huge crowd
I can drive down the road; my eyes don't see,
Though my mind wants to cry out loud
I have to agree with Igor. My state of mind and my portfolio have soared since being cut loose by McCarthy. Maybe that explains why I'm now able to cut loose.
Can't say I'm seeing signs of exuberance at this time. When I do, I'll sell. For now, staying long in the face of skepticism.
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Well, I guess I lied again when I said BTU was a long term trade. Sold for a nice profit in after hours. Can't pass up a quick intra-day hit. My very first trade outside of regular hours. Still don't know why it went up suddenly in AH but had it on screen and up it went in a burst. $64.47 my sale and last at 64.54.
ReplyDeleteDavid - I've got about a third of my port in GMO, most of it gains! I added last week too early in light of the weakness and in hindsight, of course. So now I'm doing my best to make up those losses as opposed to eating them.
ReplyDeleteI don't want to get caught with no position in case of some good news, if it ever comes at all...
And because I got shaken out of GPL/RBY during a moment of personal weakness, I need a pullback there for a more comfortable reentry.
Such as life! ;)
This older fellow has avoided after hours and pink sheets for his entire life, up until today and a week ago (MITK). Not thrilled with either venue but glad that they are available.
ReplyDeleteActually my first trading was in grain futures in 60's. Not good. Went to stocks, even having stock certificates delivered to me by mail. When I bought a house in 1970 part of my down payment was in certificates to be held by the bank as collateral at 50% of the market value. A few years later I got them back. Those were the real buy and hold days for me.
DZZ - If gold keeps on truckin' then all other commodities will follow eventually, DZZ anyone?
ReplyDeletePAL - Looks like a lost cause:
ReplyDeleteLac des Iles mine ("LDI") produced 30,661 ounces of payable palladium at a cash cost of US$519 per ounce.
Sleeping Giant mine produced 3,699 ounces of gold at a cash cost of US$1,991 per ounce
CP- GMO's chart looks the same as X. If these both break this consolidation period I'll take the $2.5K hit and exit. They would be broken patterns at that point. Next support for GMO at if that happens is 4 bucks. I don't want to lose another $3K.
ReplyDeleteMark, CP, Yes both stocks are on my never fail short screens. X and GMO. PAL and even BEXP and BAC. Some ugly looking charts.
ReplyDeletehttp://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&f=ind_stocksonly,sh_avgvol_o500,sh_price_o3,ta_averagetruerange_o0.25,ta_beta_o1.5,ta_highlow52w_b20h,ta_sma20_pb,ta_sma50_pb&ft=4&ta=0&o=-&r=49
Mark - I wouldn't blame you, the smart approach might be to step aside for awhile.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I wish I'd switched it all over to HAYN a couple days ago!
X - They've got a really competitive field and their costs for restarting their furnaces are going to be very high. They're getting eaten by the smaller recyclers now.
The SLX chart really contrasts the difference.
NUE - Even this one, a recycler, has a chart that looks like hell though...
ReplyDeleteNUE- It's basically a union stock. Demico could give a shit about the share holders. He only cares about going on TV and saying he's saving America. F that...Sorry, it's ugly out there :)
ReplyDeleteRB- Not so sure about BEXP, but thanks for keeping me up tonight. I have dreams of a $50K winner on this one. Green by $6K right now.
RB - That makes me feel a little better, it wasn't long ago your screen indicated GMO was going to break out, LOL! ;)
ReplyDeleteMark - So what did you think of the Chinese data?:
ReplyDelete"Export growth was 29.9 percent year-over-year, besting the 29.5 percent consensus, while import growth came in at 21.8 percent, below the 28.9 percent that was anticipated."
I think they may continue to allow the yuan appreciation for a few months.
CP- You know, I really don't understand that stuff. I've tried, you've tried to help me, and I still don't really get it.
ReplyDeleteI'll just take it one day at a time, but MOG is still on the north bound oil trade. People worry about the cost of energy here, but high crude prices are crushing for country's like China.
Cp it did break out for a .50 cent run lol. Obviously 90% of that list is either oil, miners or commodity support companies. So it just gets down to the underlying and dollar Voodoo.
ReplyDeleteMark 6K great! I lost $300 cause I am a puss!
GMO - Well, they had another water rights hearing in Carson city today, haven't heard any feedback on the results but I'll post them once I hear something. Should be soon, like maybe tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteIllini - Great post...crazy to hear how times have changed.
ReplyDeleteAny bets on Cisco earnings, I have been looking at $17 put options expiring this Friday at .17 cents. Might be inexpensive insurance.
ReplyDeleteECUXF has been doing very well this week, greatly amplifying the rebound in silver. There is a chance, however, that the rebound in silver is going to end tomorrow. In case it happens while I am still asleep, I just placed a sell short stop limit order for 200 shares of SLV at $36.95/$36.90, so as to get a small "consolation prize" in case silver does indeed turn around.
ReplyDeleteUS trade imbalance increases by 8% which by my understanding isn't a dollar-positive data point.
ReplyDeleteCopper down -2.46% at open
ReplyDeletePicked up TZOO 74.80. Rumblings about analyst upgrade following analyst day. Price target $127.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Looking for a close better than $4.36, if not more downside may be in store...
ReplyDeletemy 2nd ave inspired trifecta: long CL @ .10, long ES @.4304, long ES @50.50.....go baby go!!
ReplyDeletees 1/2 off at 51.25, cl 1/2 off @ 27 (yahoo!!!), stops on both to BE
ReplyDeletethat should read long 6E at 4304, but it doesn't matter, s o -2 ticks
ReplyDeletecl 1/2 off at BE, but still made 17 ticks on 1/2 so that's a big plus for the trading bank, ES s o at be
ReplyDeletenever a dull minute trading futures!
GMO- Off at 4.27.
ReplyDeleteif we break below 48 on the ES watch out below
ReplyDeleteHmm, Missippi flooding is said to interrupt gasoline availability, yet gasoline ETF is down?
ReplyDeletels es at 47.75, target 44.75....filled, 4 tick stop
ReplyDeletesize coming in here, will bail at BE if we don't pop now
ReplyDeleteoff -1, unreal tape right now...back to soh, can't blow my Cl profits today
ReplyDeleteMark - you should go to infinity and open a practice account, lot's of guys only trade the open/first hour
ReplyDeleteThese solar companies are going to be a major theme over the next 12-18 months imo. So many of them are trading at book.
ReplyDeleteBy the 4th quarter, WFR eps run rate will be over $2.00. It will have some GAAP accounting reversals that will put its eps run rate over $3.50 w/in 18 months. Its revenue/earnings/margins will be much better than when it was a $90 stock.
Sold my UNG for lunch money. Don't want to be caught in the commodities crunch.
ReplyDeletegood job Jesse, I'm always up for lunch money trades.
ReplyDeletecl is slipping 4-8 ticks, total bs
ST:
ReplyDeleteSomething notable from yesterday's trading is that the ISE Call/Put Ratio surged above 250, while the OEX Put/Call Ratio rose above 2.50.
In other words, equity traders bought 250 calls for every 100 puts, while index traders traded 250 puts for every 100 calls.
There have only been two other times we've seen this kind of activity - January 14th and March 4th
GMO - Added @ $4.23, sold $4.29
ReplyDeleteSold TZOO +3
ReplyDeleteGL guys. Tough day here...
ReplyDeleteFlooded fields - Grains are down too?
ReplyDeleteJesse - Why would you sell TZOO now? It looks like it's gearing up for another run at the old highs...
ReplyDeleteI think WFR is going to be a monster. It has Benjamin Graham written all over it. $10.11 book value, insider buying, long base, $700 million in cash, price to sales under 1, a 50 year history, debt to equity of .01, and historical price to sales ratios going back to 2003 of 2.7, 2.8, 4.5, 5.8, and 10.7.
ReplyDeleteThe last 8 quarters, WFR earnings have fluctated between losses and eps of .09. Its eps run rate by the end of the year should be $2.00. There will be some sizeable GAAP earnings reversals adding to eps starting in 2013.
Some historical earnings #'s and share prices.
.68 - $55
.71 - $68
.81 - $80
.81 - $96
TOF- Wanted to free up some capital for WFR. Been buying in low 11.20's today. I really like it as something I can hold onto and sleep at night.
ReplyDeleteDumped most of my TBSI shares @ 1.70 to free up cash for WFR. Sitting on a couple thousand shares as the price plummets as they get ready to announce the rights offering.
ReplyDeleteGas futures halted down 8%
ReplyDeleteWTF is this. Greece go belly up?
ReplyDeleteGMO - Adding @ $4.05
ReplyDeleteThat was a Honey Badger trade, BTW...
ReplyDeleteSLV filled its gap to the penny and touched its 50 day. No reason to go surfing anytime soon.
ReplyDeleteDamn, that was a fine intuition on my part last night about the silver rebound being over today, but my sell short stop limit order on SLV was jumped over! My plan was to pick up SLV puts today, but I was too late!!!
ReplyDeleteWell, if SLV drops to $30, then I think it will be a great buy. Also, if ECUXF gets back to $0.7 it will be a great buy there as well. I won't even wait for it to make a new low. In fact, I have just moved up my buy limit order from $0.6 to $0.7 (for 8K shares) and still left the order for 10K shares at $0.65.
ReplyDeleteYuck, Yuck, Yuck...Feel free to replace the Y with an F.
ReplyDeleteThis doesn't look good
ReplyDeleteHey, at least RB had the right call lined up in advance last night! It's not as if we were blindsided...
ReplyDeleteGMO - Sold those shares @ $3.12
ReplyDeleteTime to buy CSCO calls?
ReplyDeleteAre we back on?
ReplyDeleteBlogger blew a fuse just like the market today.
ReplyDeletenew post, bro.
ReplyDelete