Sunday, May 1, 2011
5/1/11 Pieces Of April
We stood on the crest of summer, beneath an oak that blossomed green
Feeling as I did in April, not really knowing what it means
But it must be then that you stand beside me now to make me feel this way
Just as I did in April, but it's a morning in May
Silver down -11%. TZA and VXX cleaned up and looking good. Look out, now- it's a morning in May.
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Re: Silver Crashing!? newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5599 comments) on Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:34 #84969 (in reply to #84965)
ReplyDeleteAs soon as I caught your post title, it took me right back to 2006. Silver prices can't help themselves- it's in their nature to sting traders.
Well, you just knew it would happen on a Sunday night. Gold is the key.
ReplyDeleteOk Guys & Gals, you have roused me from an interesting game of computer chess with this bit about silver. I have gold/GLD but this could be the harbinger of a correction in PM. I swore off SLW way back in 2009 when it tanked big time. Its even worse than SLV but of course I wish I had taken more advantage of either. I did actually, trading CEF a time or two. GLD is more my speed. A good long term hold. Don't hold physical except for a Benrus watch inherited from my father. It doesn't even keep good time.
ReplyDeleteBC just posted he will be a buyer of SLW "After Silver prices correct". He did not say how much. I guess he can stand the heat in the kitchen. BTW, he said WIR is up (what happened to the Saturday WIR time?)
ReplyDeleteRead a bit of the WIR and am returning to chess against the computer.
ReplyDeleteIllini- Don't blame you. I'd kinda 'lost track' of CC and checked in a few days ago. Unreadable.
ReplyDeleteHere is a timely take on the silver dive: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/more-silver-dive-massive-sell-orders-coupled-bolivian-nationalization-halt-combine-perfect-w?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29
ReplyDeleteOk just go to Zero Hedge.
Re: Its policy to cut the average American's Standard of Living new
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Illini (534 comments) on Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:28 #84985 (in reply to #84974)
bbar - I find your recent comments interesting and true so I checked your comment history and found this which shines an even brighter light on you and 2nd Ave.
Re 2nd_ave
"I just like the pricing of the market right now. I think it's a good time to buy."
I agree and I really had to sit on my hands this afternoon to not pull the trigger.
Weekends here now, so can do some more work and see what news there is this weekend.
03/06/2009
Nice but why did you not post again for two years? Just curious, bbar.
Now the stock futures are spiking up. Is this the end of the PM upsurge?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ALL&p=m5
Bin Laden dead.
ReplyDeleteI was checkmated by the mid-level computer guy and have had enough excitement for the evening. Checking in tomorrow early AM, God willing and if the creek don't rise.
ReplyDeleteWhaat? Dead? Thought we haven't heard from him for a long time. Will post-pone bedtime for a few more minutes.
ReplyDeleteCheapy-
ReplyDeleteYou asked about the Clear spot. Its basically a mobile internet connection that can power all of your devices simultaneously at a cost of $45 a month. I get amazingly fast speeds of up to 16mbps. Google voice is free. It is linked to your gmail account. You get a phone number that follows you worldwide as well- it will ring to any other number you want it to.
Its a lifesaver for us travelers.
I will definitely be covering my silver short tomorrow am after this dive. There's still a very small possibility per my analysis that it could make one final monthly high before the big selloff.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, I had one last order for a few thousand more SLV shares short at Friday's bell that were not filled:( But I have enough to make me happy:) Looks like the EUO trade might work out....
I was going to add another 5 or 6 pages to my natural gas thesis this weekend, but I just had too much fun in the sun (which we never get up here).
ReplyDeleteI'll quickly summarize it by saying that the dozen or so very long term natty charts that I follow are signaling a gigantic breakout and bull market over a long term time frame. The hedge funds and hot money will move into this space in such a way that investors waiting for a "safe entry" will be left in the cold.
100 year supply, oversupply, fracking, production costs, etc. etc. will not matter in the least. They didn't matter in 2008 when long dated futures traded at $19 and they won't matter this time.
I have seen many, many potential opportunities like this, but never in a highly visible, highly liquid asset that has no earnings risk, little market beta, and no dilution or accounting risk.
I'd like to add some HNUZD to the port this week.
Once $4.775 is broken, I think its off to the races.
Click on weekly view for the red breakout line:
http://www.oilngold.com/data/charts/nymex-natural-gas-charts-200808191156/
Gold - $1575, Ding, ding, ding! Hit my target.
ReplyDeleteBin Laden dead - So this explains why the FED allowed the dollar to fall so far so quickly, to maximize the advantage of the pending news?
ReplyDeleteHaven't found anything interesting so far.
ReplyDeleteDicey area for SLW. If it can't hold here, 34 is in play.
ReplyDeletesoh, cl is moving 10 ticks at a pop and the 6E just dumped below the 3 MA's I use only to fly right back up
ReplyDeleteSo much for the pull back in crude.
ReplyDeletehey Mark - the CL is way over bought but it needs to break below .32 before I can go short. about as wild as I've seen it
ReplyDeleteSLV is giving it a good fight...
ReplyDeleteJB- Yeah, things are moving really fast here. Not sure what the play is.
ReplyDeletewow, CL just slams right back up to the developing VAH, now headed back to the critical .32's...I have no clue how to trade this today
ReplyDeleteI feel like the 'anti-trader' today.
ReplyDeleteTraders gaming SLW/SLV in either direction are likely to get their asses whupped.
ReplyDeleteIt's on-the-roof day for me. Wait for post-High Noon to make my move.
ReplyDeleteGPL - Damn, missed my stink bid by a six cents, I can't chase. Gonna remain patient but the gap down will probably fill with the way things are looking so far this morning....
ReplyDeleteCopper up, euro up, metals just a little soft and crude up. Looks like a false bout of dollar shorts covering, a kneejerk reaction to Osama's death...
Picked up TZA @ 31st and 98th. newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5600 comments) on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:20 #85040
ReplyDeleteUptown or downtown by noon? Heck if I know.
es working its way back to HOD, nothing for me. going for my walk.
ReplyDeletegood luck traders!
Re: Picked up TZA @ 31st and 98th. newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5601 comments) on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:24 #85043 (in reply to #85040)
ReplyDeleteDumped her @ 93rd.
Copper - Still below the 150SMA, I bet it doesn't stay there too much longer but I won't make any decisions until it does...
ReplyDeleteRe: Picked up TZA @ 31st and 79th newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5602 comments) on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:40 #85047 (in reply to #85043)
ReplyDeleteRe: Picked up TZA @ 31st and 79th newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5603 comments) on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:06 #85050 (in reply to #85047)
ReplyDeleteLet her out at 98th- just wanted my money back + cab fare back to work, and she was nice enough about
Out SLV short 43.95 at 5am and EUO 16.08 just now. Looks like the dollar is off to more new lows and Silver to one last monthly high.
ReplyDeleteGold - Movin' on up to the east side, to a de-lux apartment in the sky...
ReplyDeleteI can't believe crude cannot correct down to at least 105. C+H forming on the daily. It could explode higher defying any logic. Has this ever happened before? Oh 2007 deja vu.
ReplyDeleteHey, where's that PM selloff BC's been hunting for???
ReplyDeleteI'd like to know how he can do so well while consistently being on the wrong side of most trades...
TELE,
ReplyDeleteWPRT you were right and I was wrong. Its holding this new range well. I am looking for an entry.
Crude 2007 - Yep, at that time the US economy hadn't come to a screeching halt, land yachts bought against home equity loans were all the rage, and the middle east energy scene wasn't in jeopardy of governmental upheaval. The US government hadn't yet begun to socialize massive losses on fraudulent mortgages held by wall street speculators, either.
ReplyDeletePicked up SPXU and DOG. Stop at today's high.
ReplyDeleteOut UNG. Having some trouble at its 200 day. Will buy back soon.
ReplyDeleteSo far, after this morning's pop to new monthly highs for all the majors, we have a monthly failure on all major indexes. If you believe market is heading down, short at the monthly failure and put a stop in place just above it.
ReplyDeleteThe buying splurge has been incredible, I believe the market is overbought. S&P needs to retest support for confirmation.
ReplyDeleteMaybe I'm wrong, too.
out SPXU and DOG for quick pop.
ReplyDeleteI got stopped out this morning out of 500 shares of GDXJ at $40.90 (I picked them up at $39.60) a couple of weeks ago. So now I have more cash to invest into ECU! When I was checking the market this morning, I noticed that both the bid and ask on ECUXF were at $0.8, but my buy limit order for 10K shares at $0.8 would still not get triggered. Seeing that the bid and ask were drifting lower, I got the feeling that there is no urgency to buying ECUXF in my OptionsHouse account, since they wanted to charge me extra $50 for 10K shares. Instead, I decided to get greedy and make an ACH transfer of the fresh cash (from the sale of GDXJ) out of OptionsHouse, so as to later transfer it into ETrade, where there is no extra charge for buying stocks under $1. Hopefully, ECUXF won't bounce up too soon and I will still be able to buy it at $0.8 or below in a couple of days.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Adding here at the 200SMA, $4.72 bid filled.
ReplyDeletego CP, go!!!
ReplyDeletere-entered UNG. Stop below 11.97
ReplyDeleteGMO- CP, those earnings can hardly come as a surprise. Did you listen to the CC?
ReplyDeletekeep an eye on VRNG
ReplyDeleteVECO/CREE - Looks like capital equipment manufacture is the place to be.
ReplyDeleteGMO CC - Nope, haven't listened. Maybe I should think about doing that, I guess the permit delays are weighing on the stock price and that a retest of longer term support is obligatory at some point.
ReplyDeleteEarnings - Yeah, the company doesn't have income yet Just burning cash waiting for government red tape can be a real killer! It's not already priced in?
The 200SMA just seemed like a logical test point.
Gotta go for it, cross my fingers and hold my nose... next support $4.50!
Back in SPXU. Stop at 15.30.
ReplyDeleteREDF really tanking
ReplyDeleteIOC? What's da story?
ReplyDeleteGMO- Could also be following X. Their charts are identical.
ReplyDeleteREDF- Yeah, and SIFY/MOBI/QPSA.
ReplyDeleteGMO- As quick as I can look at today's report, it seems as expected. I am worried about a overall correction, especially in the metals...However...
ReplyDelete3,000 GMO @ 4.68.
Although MITK is green, the bids are getting hit. Could be interesting here if 5.80 breaks and holds.
ReplyDeleteFiat money - It's environmentally friendly!
ReplyDeletere: TRE - an investment firm in FL took a 10% stake via open market purchases
ReplyDeleteQuite a reversal in RES today. That's why I never chase.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Steelers are definitely a tell.
ReplyDeleteJesse, Mark: looks like you were right about shorting the rebound in SLV. Too many people wanted to short silver last Monday (and take profits on the long side), and so its collapse last Tuesday could not progress because no sellers were left. The rebound late last week, however, drew some people back to the long side and most shorts were covered once silver made a new high. At THAT point, many potential sellers appeared once again, and THAT was the time to short silver. Should have increased my put options position at that point... Well, at least I didn't get shaken out of it during the rebound. :)
ReplyDeleteMan, look at GG.
ReplyDeleteEven steeper now for GG.
ReplyDeleteSLV- Dear lord...
ReplyDeleteBidding GMO @ 4.63.
ReplyDeleteThank God for my stop on GDXJ, which got triggered today at $40.90... At this rate, GLD will hit my stop at $149.95 soon, and I'll have even more cash to invest into ECU!
ReplyDeleteMoving GMO down to 4.62.
ReplyDeleteMake that 4.60...Could be a little spike at the close.
ReplyDeleteOut SPXU on pop. In EUO 16.23.
ReplyDeleteCopper - Back above 150DMA
ReplyDeleteSwapping EUO for SPXU as they move in opposite directions after hours. I see some ugly candles out there.
ReplyDeleteDavid-
ReplyDeleteCongrats on holding your SLV puts through the chaos.
Pretty much all of the big boy momentum plays down on the day- REDF -13.5%, TZOO -5%, MOBI -21%, PLAB -5%, APKT -5.5%, sfly -2.3%, LULU -3.8%, ARUN -4%,
ReplyDeleteOPEN, NFLX, MITK barely survived.
In my experience, this type of action usually results in a pretty big pullback w/in 3-4 sessions as professional traders exit the market while big funds still have funds to put to work thus propping up the majors.
At major lows, you want to see terrible news being bought. At tops, you want to see unbelievable news being sold. I can't think of any other news that would have the entire country rejoicing.
Not calling a crash quite yet as the smart $ is still in mid-range, but I'm very defensive here...
ECUXF took another dump into the close. I can't take this any longer. I just sold my 200 shares of GLD after hours at $150.65 and submitted an ACH transfer to move the $30K I have just received into my bank account, so that I could then move them into ETrade and keep buying ECUXF without the extra fees for stocks under $1. I bought GLD a year ago as a "safe place" for parking my extra cash until some amazing opportunities appear. Buying ECUXF at $0.75 is that amazing opportunity, and there is no reason for me to hold my GLD any longer.
ReplyDeleteSold my UNG after hours for lunch money. I don't like the candle for natty. UNG candle ok, natty not so hot. Also has highest rsi in the last year.
ReplyDelete"Nucor's DiMicco Says No Steel Construction Rebound Before Mid-Decade"
ReplyDelete"Still, production of steel in the U.S. will increase 14 percent to 95 million tons this year, DiMicco also said. That would match the gain seen last year, according to AISI data."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-02/u-s-steel-production-will-rise-14-this-year-dimicco-says.html?cmpid=yhoo
Maybe Bin Laden's death was already priced in....
ReplyDeleteLOL on "priced in" ...yeah, another conspiracy theory.
ReplyDeleteI just watched most of today until the last half hour. Then I did a round trip with PBR for lunch money for the whole week. Restaurants are pretty cheap here.
4/26/11 U.S. dollar public opinion- 18.8%. That's the lowest as far as the chart goes back. This level is outside of lower bollinger band which has marked dollar turning points in the past.
ReplyDeleteHighest commodity bullish percentage on 4/26 was silver at 89%. Euro bullish percentage was 83%.
Swiss franc at 87%- highest as far as the chart goes back. Outside of upper bollinger band as well.
Same pattern w/ Aussie/Canadian dollar and Pound.
IMO, this presents a major inflection point for the Dollar and for the markets.
Best looking setups to play this imo are EUO and DRR.
CCJ - Pretty nice day there, considering the picture I'm looking at at the moment...
ReplyDelete