Kudos to those of you able to ride the buy/sell waves in silver. I was never able to sleep without at least one eye open while holding significant positions in the sector. The recent shakeout? For me, that would have been more like a wipe out.
2nd, I do too, mostly. Is that badder? I do admit to holding GLD which is bad enough. Is holding fiat money even badder. These are the questions of the times.
I couldn't believe companies like Baxter, McKesson, and Boston Scientific were trading up 19-30% (I was sitting in my car waiting for the little guy and surfing with the Droid).
Mark, my 4 year old grandson had a bad experience bumping heads with a team mate in his second game. Would not go back into game. Hung onto mom. Maybe 4 is too young. His first game was spectacular. What a change.
If we get a green open tomorrow, I might go heavy into a combination of dollar calls, euro puts, TVIX, inverse etfs, and/or DBC puts. The one caveat is that the smart $ is pretty neutral (although CSFB smart $ put premiums are sky high).
Guys I kinda think we follow the 1907-1915 trading pattern...I think we go to 1450 to 1500 based in part on inventory rebuilding (ie sales to onventory levels are back at march 2009 levels)...then we slowly fade back to test the 1220 level once again, which is where we bottom out at before the next bull market...may take a few years for this to pan out
Earnings are coming up in a few days for MITK. Do you have an estimate of what kind of eps run rate they might have a year from now? Based on current financials, there is no way to value it.
Shit man I just wasted like 5 minutes writing a post on MITK Jesse.
Anyway, the gist of it is it's not about this earnings call for MITK. This is a long term (2-3 years) story in my mind. I think they should break even this quarter and show modest rev growth (this quarter last year had a spike in revenues due to a one time license fee they received). They launched US Bank and PNC Bank in the middle to later part of this quarter, which should marginally help. I don't think they will be able to recognize Chase revenues yet (according to SEC filings Chase revenues are considered deferred until all services (think Mobile Bill Pay and others) they signed up for are launched). Mobile deposit through USAA, BluePoint Solutions' partners, and Paypal has continued to grow from what I've read. Bluepoint Solutions, a channel partner (i.e, distributor) reported their q1 in history and mentioned that mobile check deposit demand is significant: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110428005936/en/Bluepoint-Solutions-Reports-Q1-Company-History
2011 is all about launching check deposit with all of the major banks, so I think the real revenue growth won't hit until 2012 and 2013. I think we could see 40 to 50% growth in 2012, which would equate to about $7.5 Million revenues, $6.1 Million gross profit, and about $1.2 Million Net Income (or about $.06 to $.07 per share).
I think they will really ramp up revenues in 2012 to 2014, though, as every bank signs up for mobile check deposit and mobile banking really takes off. I think they will do about $50 Million in revenues by 2013-2014, which will translate into earnings of about $1.70 to $1.80/share. Assuming a multiple of 25 times earnings I think they will be trading in the 40's by then and they will be trading on the Nasdaq (they have already hinted at moving to the Nasdaq and I think the signing of Pete Hart (former CEO of MasterCard) to their Board was a big move in that direction).
Again, my projections assuming no value is assigned to Mobile Bill Pay or the other services they're launching and it assumes a drop from 100% market share (current) to 50%.
WPRT : I jinxed Tele with my post yesterday. I saw a real tight triangle forming that I though would resolve to the upside. 22.50 is obvious support for its current range. This sucker can move 1.50 a day with no problems so it scares me with a normal position size. Will trade with oil, so I am waiting on a oil correction before entry. I could be waiting for a year. Bexp I had 31.50 as line in the sand. I want some. Just worried about its disconnect from oil will reconnect when oil goes down. Not really a direct relationship at the moment. Right.
Somehow I found another $5K in my bank account, promptly transferred it to ETrade and bought 8K shares of ECUXF at $0.69. Awesome price! Also, the $30K ACH transfer from OptionsHouse might arrive today, which I will immediately transfer into ETrade and will buy more ECUXF at this price! When ECU spiked above $1, I was really worried that I didn't have enough of it (only about 60K shares), and so even a doubling of ECUXF would not have made me rich. Pretty soon, however, I will have 200K shares, and when ECU rises to $5 they will be worth 1 million dollars! :)
Bank of America is going to be launching mobile check deposit this year according to a rep i was just chatting with online:
Terry: We are the process of developing and implementing that technology . You: do you know when it will be offered? Terry: I've heard that it would be implemented this year but I can get the definitive date
Sounds like MITK is ready to sign on the biggest bank in the US
At the rate at which silver is collapsing, I will soon be able to raise even more cash by selling my SLV puts, which have almost doubled already. I will hold them until silver drops below $40 and will then close them either when silver rises back above $40 or when the puts triple in value (which should happen when silver drops to about $35).
The way that human psychology works, the first rebound in silver will be a dead cat bounce, which will be sold to a new low. So I will try to hold my SLV puts through the first rebound, even if it rises above $40, and will then wait for a new low to be made or for a retest of the low. THEN, I will definitely close my SLV puts if SLV rises above the highest point of the rebound (or if they triple before that).
Feels like sell in May, that is such an incredible phenomenon to me, seems like a huge Achilles tendon.
Alright, I have a feeling GMO and GPL are bottomed, but caution lingers so I'm gonna wait and see if Jesse's hunch about the dollar is right. Sorry Jesse, I've got my doubts b/c it's just too obvious the dollar should rise if stocks are sold. It's just not happening yet.
Copper is bright green, Glencore IPO is May 24/25, and the dollar hasn't budged for all intensive purposes. I guess folks are thinking it will, otherwise why would they sell, going on vacation in the Hamptons or just force of habit?.
India raised rates due to their 9% inflation rate, that should be good for a stronger Rupee I would think, not the dollar.
Major SLV support at 40 on a weekly basis and its also the lower trendline from January. I don't see it closing below 40 for awhile. That sure doesn't mean I that I would hold it:)
SLV- Are you sure about that, Jesse? I think I responded to Dr. S about a week ago that silver could drop to the thirties in the blink of an eye. It almost has. So IMO, it probably will.
UUP June 21 calls are $1.01 on the ask. Hmmmm....not bad for an etf closing at 20.97. Looks like a potential 6 week double to me.
ReplyDelete2nd, I just ignore the silver sector. Is that bad?
ReplyDelete2nd, I do too, mostly. Is that badder? I do admit to holding GLD which is bad enough. Is holding fiat money even badder. These are the questions of the times.
ReplyDeleteMore signs things are out of control newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5605 comments) on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 21:48 #85122
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/3mvf2sl
I was wondering about the after hours double-digit gains in the sector.
Ignoring the silver sector is one key to trading nirvana. That's my opinion.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, I might take a stab at SLW when I least expect to.
ReplyDeleteBesides TZA/VXX, what's left to trade?
ReplyDeleteIs SPX 1040 even remotely on anyone's radar any longer? I don't think so.
ReplyDeleteThe smart trade (as always) remains waiting for the fat pitch.
2nd - your tiny URL did not work for me at least.
ReplyDeleteillini- Here's what I was trying to create a tinyurl for:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-direct-edge-cancel-dozens-of-faulty-trades-2011-05-02
Instead, I inadvertently created a tinyurl of my post re The Silver Surfer.
ReplyDeleteWhich was promptly deleted from CC.
Holy cow, man. It also resulted in being blacklisted? Again.
ReplyDeleteI couldn't believe companies like Baxter, McKesson, and Boston Scientific were trading up 19-30% (I was sitting in my car waiting for the little guy and surfing with the Droid).
ReplyDeleteYour kidding right?
ReplyDeleteEven more unreal is that a couple of the exchanges are allowing the trades to stand!?
ReplyDeleteBlacklisted?: "Say it ain't true Joe". (Black Sox quote.)
ReplyDeleterb- I kid you not about any of my above 4 posts.
ReplyDeleteThere has to be at least one 'censor' with absolutely no sense of humor or tolerance for mistakes.
ReplyDeleteI can't recall how many driving violations that makes. But at some point I probably accumulate enough points for license revocation.
No worries, man. I'll just move to Mexico until things cool off. I mean Bullhead.
ReplyDeleteHere's a 'screenshot' of what I was seeing on the Droid around 3 pm:
ReplyDelete6:05p
McKesson shares spike 19% to $98.78 after-hours
Baxter shares spike 19.6% to $68.88 after hours
I kept thinking, WTF am I missing?
2nd, my only source for after hours is Yahoo quotes. I don't see the spikes.
ReplyDeleteSo how does that happen? One of the black boxes goes "HAL" on a hedge fund.
ReplyDeleteLeast in Bullhead there is a friendly craps game a 30 second boat ride away.
ReplyDelete2nd- Again?...Did you name names?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QaTbErVDQ40
It's Les.
ReplyDeleteIllini/2nd. I see the trade prints. 100 shares each.
ReplyDeleteI do not trust after hours prints much. There are enough problems with the regular hours data.
ReplyDeleteMark, my 4 year old grandson had a bad experience bumping heads with a team mate in his second game. Would not go back into game. Hung onto mom. Maybe 4 is too young. His first game was spectacular. What a change.
ReplyDelete2nd - Please don't inadvertently link from CC over here, you might ruin our board!
ReplyDeleteNice cup and handle the last few days on the 10 day VIX chart. TVIX setting up nicely.
ReplyDeleteIf we get a green open tomorrow, I might go heavy into a combination of dollar calls, euro puts, TVIX, inverse etfs, and/or DBC puts. The one caveat is that the smart $ is pretty neutral (although CSFB smart $ put premiums are sky high).
ReplyDeleteGuys I kinda think we follow the 1907-1915 trading pattern...I think we go to 1450 to 1500 based in part on inventory rebuilding (ie sales to onventory levels are back at march 2009 levels)...then we slowly fade back to test the 1220 level once again, which is where we bottom out at before the next bull market...may take a few years for this to pan out
ReplyDeleteHow long, will this be goin' on?
ReplyDeleteThis is one resilient market. DJIA futes -55 during my drive to work. Now -22.
ReplyDeleteOut SPXU +.14
ReplyDeleteBack in UNG 12.13 w/ tight stop
ReplyDeleteGNK - Reports today after close, this should prove interesting... More downside or bk filing?
ReplyDeleteOut EUO even
ReplyDelete1000 BEXP @ 31.55 S2
ReplyDeleteOpened SLW @ 37.23, closed @ 37.49.
ReplyDeleteDamn- SLW now down to 36.61? How the hell can anyone be all-in and sleep at night?
ReplyDeleteBEXP off @ 31.50. Broke S2
ReplyDeleteTZA @ 33.58
ReplyDeleteDamn, looks like I got shaken out.
ReplyDeleteI'm not so sure, Mark. I think we're headed down today.
ReplyDeleteTZA off @ 33.74.
ReplyDeleteSilver jr prices couldn't get any better, could they?
ReplyDeleteOnly the crazies go all in, it's worked for them so far but it's pretty damn risky when the COMEX raises margins three or four times a week...
They lowered grain margins, go figure...
Picked up June UUP $20 calls $1.01
ReplyDeleteTeam-
ReplyDeleteEarnings are coming up in a few days for MITK. Do you have an estimate of what kind of eps run rate they might have a year from now? Based on current financials, there is no way to value it.
Day 2 for RES. NEVER CHASE!!
ReplyDeletePutting in a shameful stink bid for ECUXF. I can't post the price because David would hate me.
ReplyDeleteRB/T3D- WPRT? Comments?
ReplyDeleteStinky on BEXP.
ReplyDeleteShit man I just wasted like 5 minutes writing a post on MITK Jesse.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, the gist of it is it's not about this earnings call for MITK. This is a long term (2-3 years) story in my mind. I think they should break even this quarter and show modest rev growth (this quarter last year had a spike in revenues due to a one time license fee they received). They launched US Bank and PNC Bank in the middle to later part of this quarter, which should marginally help. I don't think they will be able to recognize Chase revenues yet (according to SEC filings Chase revenues are considered deferred until all services (think Mobile Bill Pay and others) they signed up for are launched). Mobile deposit through USAA, BluePoint Solutions' partners, and Paypal has continued to grow from what I've read. Bluepoint Solutions, a channel partner (i.e, distributor) reported their q1 in history and mentioned that mobile check deposit demand is significant:
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110428005936/en/Bluepoint-Solutions-Reports-Q1-Company-History
2011 is all about launching check deposit with all of the major banks, so I think the real revenue growth won't hit until 2012 and 2013. I think we could see 40 to 50% growth in 2012, which would equate to about $7.5 Million revenues, $6.1 Million gross profit, and about $1.2 Million Net Income (or about $.06 to $.07 per share).
I think they will really ramp up revenues in 2012 to 2014, though, as every bank signs up for mobile check deposit and mobile banking really takes off. I think they will do about $50 Million in revenues by 2013-2014, which will translate into earnings of about $1.70 to $1.80/share. Assuming a multiple of 25 times earnings I think they will be trading in the 40's by then and they will be trading on the Nasdaq (they have already hinted at moving to the Nasdaq and I think the signing of Pete Hart (former CEO of MasterCard) to their Board was a big move in that direction).
Again, my projections assuming no value is assigned to Mobile Bill Pay or the other services they're launching and it assumes a drop from 100% market share (current) to 50%.
RBY - Off @ $4.97, taking small gain and raising cash...
ReplyDeleteWPRT : I jinxed Tele with my post yesterday. I saw a real tight triangle forming that I though would resolve to the upside. 22.50 is obvious support for its current range. This sucker can move 1.50 a day with no problems so it scares me with a normal position size. Will trade with oil, so I am waiting on a oil correction before entry. I could be waiting for a year. Bexp I had 31.50 as line in the sand. I want some. Just worried about its disconnect from oil will reconnect when oil goes down. Not really a direct relationship at the moment. Right.
ReplyDeleteSomehow I found another $5K in my bank account, promptly transferred it to ETrade and bought 8K shares of ECUXF at $0.69. Awesome price! Also, the $30K ACH transfer from OptionsHouse might arrive today, which I will immediately transfer into ETrade and will buy more ECUXF at this price! When ECU spiked above $1, I was really worried that I didn't have enough of it (only about 60K shares), and so even a doubling of ECUXF would not have made me rich. Pretty soon, however, I will have 200K shares, and when ECU rises to $5 they will be worth 1 million dollars! :)
ReplyDelete$1M sounds like a nice start to me, even after Uncle Sam gets his cut.
ReplyDeleteBank of America is going to be launching mobile check deposit this year according to a rep i was just chatting with online:
ReplyDeleteTerry: We are the process of developing and implementing that technology .
You: do you know when it will be offered?
Terry: I've heard that it would be implemented this year but I can get the definitive date
Sounds like MITK is ready to sign on the biggest bank in the US
Thanks for the write up TOF. Much appreciated!
ReplyDeleteAt the rate at which silver is collapsing, I will soon be able to raise even more cash by selling my SLV puts, which have almost doubled already. I will hold them until silver drops below $40 and will then close them either when silver rises back above $40 or when the puts triple in value (which should happen when silver drops to about $35).
ReplyDeletea huge, freakin', TRE, just fell on me
ReplyDelete1000 BEXP @ 30.77
ReplyDeleteWho's making money today besides shorts and CADC?
ReplyDeleteIs Barney Fwank doin' this to us today?
ReplyDeleteI don't know who is making money today CP, I'm losing my a**
ReplyDeleteThe dollar is still building a launching pad. I have a feeling this will be a week/month long event.
ReplyDeleteThe way that human psychology works, the first rebound in silver will be a dead cat bounce, which will be sold to a new low. So I will try to hold my SLV puts through the first rebound, even if it rises above $40, and will then wait for a new low to be made or for a retest of the low. THEN, I will definitely close my SLV puts if SLV rises above the highest point of the rebound (or if they triple before that).
ReplyDeleteBEXP off @ 30.67. Another 100 bucks down the rat hole...
ReplyDelete"I don't know who is making money today CP, I'm losing my a**"
ReplyDeleteJB, I already lost my a** with ECU, but I am planning to grow it 8 to 10 times larger with ECU rising above $5. :)
CP- Not me. Want a 100 bucks? I'm given' them away today!
ReplyDeleteDavid- That's not your 27K order for ECUXF is it?
ReplyDelete1000 BEXP @ 30.64...Fer!
ReplyDeleteNot yet, Mark -- the 28K I transferred from OptionsHouse have not arrived yet at my bank account. But when they do, I'll pile all of them into ECUXF!
ReplyDeleteDavid - good luck buddy!!!
ReplyDeleteFeels like sell in May, that is such an incredible phenomenon to me, seems like a huge Achilles tendon.
ReplyDeleteAlright, I have a feeling GMO and GPL are bottomed, but caution lingers so I'm gonna wait and see if Jesse's hunch about the dollar is right. Sorry Jesse, I've got my doubts b/c it's just too obvious the dollar should rise if stocks are sold. It's just not happening yet.
Copper is bright green, Glencore IPO is May 24/25, and the dollar hasn't budged for all intensive purposes. I guess folks are thinking it will, otherwise why would they sell, going on vacation in the Hamptons or just force of habit?.
India raised rates due to their 9% inflation rate, that should be good for a stronger Rupee I would think, not the dollar.
Oh what's a mother to do....?
Of course India's tightening is likely to effect commodities to some degree...
ReplyDeleteBought SLV 40.09
ReplyDeleteDavid- You 'somehow found another 5k in your bank account?' Nice.
ReplyDeleteOut of the surf at 40.41
ReplyDeleteApparently, I am still getting a bi-weekly salary from my job. :)
ReplyDeleteMajor SLV support at 40 on a weekly basis and its also the lower trendline from January. I don't see it closing below 40 for awhile. That sure doesn't mean I that I would hold it:)
ReplyDeleteSLV- Are you sure about that, Jesse? I think I responded to Dr. S about a week ago that silver could drop to the thirties in the blink of an eye. It almost has. So IMO, it probably will.
ReplyDeleteYes, it's always nice to get paid for working.
ReplyDeleteMark nice BEXP pickup if it closes above 31.50 you are the man!
ReplyDeleteDips must be bought. Ben wins again! Incredible.
ReplyDeleteOK, I see you're back on the beach and toweling off.
ReplyDeletelvs just laid a turd.:) I'm long Mpel, so i am going to get pole axed. I hate vegas.
ReplyDeletei MEAN'T :(
ReplyDeleteBack into EUO. Don't want to be late to the party.
ReplyDeletenew pistola
ReplyDelete