I have faith, 2nd_ave. :) I followed the junior mining sector since 2006 and have seen small companies collapse in price and then rise 5X in a short period of time. So I know that the recent 50% collapse in ECU.TO is just noise. I would have been much more worried if I held SLW or even SLV, since I can totally see SLV dropping down to $30 and staying around $30 for the next year. However, ECU.TO will do great even with SLV at $30, since they are constantly growing their resource size AND their production. So I cannot imagine what can possibly derail the fundamental growth of that company.
BEXP- I guess it's up to the market gods now. I liked everything I saw in their earnings/outlook report. I'll listen to the CC tomorrow unless it gets killed from the get go.
You guys are missing the points I'm making in the post:
(a) David has ice in his veins. Some people would consider than an emotional problem. Whereas in certain Mexican circles it would be viewed as a sign of machismo.
(b) There is no such thing as a drinking problem. Also no such thing as a problem that cannot be solved by drinking.
I've seen it all...2nd jumping the big cap ship and moving to momos. Feel free to join me in the MITK camp. Gonna be a 10 bagger over the next 3 years..
2nd_ave, if you are seriously considering picking up some ECUXF, then I suggest that you read the news "ECU SILVER PROVIDES CORPORATE UPDATE TO SHAREHOLDERS" from
where ECU gives a nice overview of their plans for 2011. Then you can read all later press releases to see how ECU is following up on their plans. You can see in their 2010 quarterly statements that their revenues for Q1 - Q4 grew steadily from $3M to $6M, and then I can show you my calculations of why there revenue should be around $12M starting Q3 2011 at the current prices of silver and gold. Note that their long-term debt is only $13M at this point. Their EPS was still 0 in 2010 because they were recycling all the cash they were earning into exploration and mine development. Starting Q3 2011, however, I think there is a very high probability of them showing a positive EPS, which will be a great shock to ECU traders.
Also note that today they released yet another positive exploration result and provided an update about the progress of their drilling of the massive high-grade deposit. They have almost finished drilling down with a large drill bit and will soon start taking lateral samples. So the results of this drilling will be released in a few weeks at most, at which point the share price might go up N times (if they show that this sulphide deposit doubles their resource size AND has an 8 times higher grade than their 43-101, which was the case for the two small samples they took from that deposit in 2008).
RBY - There's an end of march gap up at ~$4.42 that needs to fill, see chart.
GMO - Today shoulda' been a no-brainer once it fell under the 200SMA, then the trendline at $4.50 was the next target. Anything under was fair game, not sure if that'll be true tomorrow though, whomever's trading it loves to surprise.
Anyway, for Silver I've got $34.48 as a possible target from here if you're really not hot on metals and it happens to make it there it should be pretty safe. I doubt it's going there, so it will.
GPL looks really good here @$3.22, if it moves lower then forget about it for a while, support is failing. So if silver really does tank, then GPL chart needs review...
RBY - Sorry, the gap that needs filling is @ $5.52, so don't buy until it's filled. Primary bottom trend line is $4.42ish, and a secondary line @ $3.60
S&P - Looks like RSI(7) just turned under 70 today. More selling to come there, no doubt.
I still don't see much lift in the dollar yet, doesn't mean it won't/can't happen at some point. I guess if the market moves down that might make it happen.
JB- No, it's normally not like this. I now have my original position back that I sold @ 36.83. This is a LT swing trade for me. Nothing I saw in the report scared me. They did what good E&P guys do. Used their cash for more land buys and will increase production to 12K-14K boe in Q2.
We'll see, but I'll stick with MOG's take on the Mang. team.
"The US Dollar has been pounded, both in terms of price and sentiment.
There is an odd contrarian here and there suggesting it's oversold enough to rally, but for the most part analysts cite a wicked confluence of fundamental and structural factors that will keep the buck suppressed for months, or years, on end.
That's fully reflected in our latest Public Opinion data. Recall that these indicators scoop in the data from a large number of available sentiment surveys, and weight them based on their historical success at highlighting extremes in the underlying price of the currency or commodity.
Due to a love affair with the Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar in particular, there isn't much love left over for the lowly Dollar, which has seen sentiment this lopsidedly pessimistic only twice before in the past 12 years, both in 2003.
In late May 2003, Public Opinion slid to 15%. The Dollar chopped back and forth for three weeks, then rallied about 7% over the next three months. In early December 2003, Opinion dropped to 14%. After that, the Dollar dipped another 3.5% over the next month, then rallied nearly 8% over the next four months.
Granted, it is only two precedents, but given how extreme the Opinion numbers are for the Dollar and its cross currencies, and the mostly extreme nature of the position of futures traders in the Dollar and the other currencies, it does look like any further drops in the buck should be more than made up when looking at the intermediate-term of the next few months.
While everyone was calling the bottom dollar a couple of days ago:
"Portugal accepted a bailout from the EU and IMF totaling €78 billion, and the U.S. dollar is falling against its European counterpart as a result. Nevertheless, the trade-weighted dollar index is holding recent three-year lows near 73."
Why have PM's been so strong lately and now showing major weakness?
"Sources have reported that a few large hedge funds have sold at least a portion of their precious metals positions to lock in profits. But that selling is dwarfed by a massive 93 tonne purchase of gold by the Mexican central bank in February and March—one of the largest purchases of the last decade."
AMAT - So Varian sells the Ion Implant division to AMAT.
Ion Implanters are interesting tools, the high throughput commercial production versions have impressively huge circular vacuum chambers with specially designed electromagnets affixed around the exterior. Size is comparable to a shortened school bus.
If the high voltage current doesn't get you (most accidents in this respect result in death to the careless technician), an arsenic exposure might (These machines are used for doping substrates, quite often with arsenic).
The Varian machines are thought of as the Cadillac of ion implanters, a nice catch for AMAT.
All right! The $28K transfer has just arrived from OptionsHouse into my bank account. I made an immediate transfer of $20K into Etrade (they are nice enough to allow me to use that money immediately), and placed a buy limit order for 10K shares of ECUXF at $0.67.
Dr. S - I'd guess a confession would be forthcoming, but it would be so subtle most will overlook it b/c it'll be buried in the regularly scheduled unintelligible gobbldygook.
I have the impression from the way he expresses himself, he must be a PhD (Piled higher and Deeper).
SLV hit its 50 day @ 38. W/ silver bulls calling for $100 silver later this year, it should bounce very hard from this level. There's no way it goes to $100, let alone old highs, but I'd still like to ride the wave for a day or two.
Damn! Even though I had $8K of cash in OptionsHouse, they issued me a margin call today because I was short a bunch of puts. So I just sold my 2000 shares of RBY at $4.77, which is right around their cost basis after the few RBY trades I made this year (bought 2K shares of RBY in low $4's during the Japan panic and then sold them in high $4's and low $5's). I still have 10 short May $5 puts for RBY, which I sold a month ago at $0.5, so maybe I'll reload 1K shares of RBY at $4.50 at May OpEx.
Sold SLV after this spike @ 38.75 for a .25 loss overall. Have a hunch taht this might be it for the day as it runs into some stiff intraday moving averages between 38.81 and 39.93. Hoping for a crappy close and perhaps a gap up.
CEF was wild today. It was the only trade I made and luckily I got out with a few bucks after watching it drop a lot and recover.
H2O - remember when GWB touted it for cars in an early State of the Union address? Amounted to nothing. Energy dept under Obama finally killed gov support. The moly catalyst article was interesting though. Maybe there is still hope but probably not for cars in the near future.
Hydrogen - Yep, I can't imagine having to lug around and/or refill/swap out a high pressure gas bottle(s) every few hundred miles would be on anyone's list of enjoyable chores.
I have faith, 2nd_ave. :) I followed the junior mining sector since 2006 and have seen small companies collapse in price and then rise 5X in a short period of time. So I know that the recent 50% collapse in ECU.TO is just noise. I would have been much more worried if I held SLW or even SLV, since I can totally see SLV dropping down to $30 and staying around $30 for the next year. However, ECU.TO will do great even with SLV at $30, since they are constantly growing their resource size AND their production. So I cannot imagine what can possibly derail the fundamental growth of that company.
ReplyDelete2nd- Do I get a vote?
ReplyDeleteMark, we know that you have a drinking problem and hence perceive everyone as having one as well. :)
ReplyDeleteBEXP- I guess it's up to the market gods now. I liked everything I saw in their earnings/outlook report. I'll listen to the CC tomorrow unless it gets killed from the get go.
ReplyDeleteOther way around David. Compared to me NO one has a drinking problem :).
ReplyDeleteBid for ECU today at .69. No joy. I'll go down with you Captain.
Well, except RB of course, but that's just stating the obvious...
ReplyDeleteYou guys are missing the points I'm making in the post:
ReplyDelete(a) David has ice in his veins. Some people would consider than an emotional problem. Whereas in certain Mexican circles it would be viewed as a sign of machismo.
(b) There is no such thing as a drinking problem. Also no such thing as a problem that cannot be solved by drinking.
In fact, I'm finally ready to consider breaking the vows I made in 2006, and pick up ECUXF, UXG, and SLW in the same freaking day.
ReplyDeleteHow the hell did I leave out RBY?
ReplyDeleteI might even pick up REDF and GMO for the hell of it.
None of the above was Nadurra-inspired.
ReplyDeleteCan you add BEXP to your shopping list?
ReplyDeleteI've seen it all...2nd jumping the big cap ship and moving to momos. Feel free to join me in the MITK camp. Gonna be a 10 bagger over the next 3 years..
ReplyDeleteBelieve it or not, I actually made $370 on my shaky BEXP trading.
ReplyDeleteGMO, not so lucky.
2nd_ave, if you are seriously considering picking up some ECUXF, then I suggest that you read the news "ECU SILVER PROVIDES CORPORATE UPDATE TO SHAREHOLDERS" from
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ecu.ca/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&id=76&Itemid=216&lang=en
where ECU gives a nice overview of their plans for 2011. Then you can read all later press releases to see how ECU is following up on their plans. You can see in their 2010 quarterly statements that their revenues for Q1 - Q4 grew steadily from $3M to $6M, and then I can show you my calculations of why there revenue should be around $12M starting Q3 2011 at the current prices of silver and gold. Note that their long-term debt is only $13M at this point. Their EPS was still 0 in 2010 because they were recycling all the cash they were earning into exploration and mine development. Starting Q3 2011, however, I think there is a very high probability of them showing a positive EPS, which will be a great shock to ECU traders.
Also note that today they released yet another positive exploration result and provided an update about the progress of their drilling of the massive high-grade deposit. They have almost finished drilling down with a large drill bit and will soon start taking lateral samples. So the results of this drilling will be released in a few weeks at most, at which point the share price might go up N times (if they show that this sulphide deposit doubles their resource size AND has an 8 times higher grade than their 43-101, which was the case for the two small samples they took from that deposit in 2008).
RBY - There's an end of march gap up at ~$4.42 that needs to fill, see chart.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Today shoulda' been a no-brainer once it fell under the 200SMA, then the trendline at $4.50 was the next target. Anything under was fair game, not sure if that'll be true tomorrow though, whomever's trading it loves to surprise.
Anyway, for Silver I've got $34.48 as a possible target from here if you're really not hot on metals and it happens to make it there it should be pretty safe. I doubt it's going there, so it will.
GPL looks really good here @$3.22, if it moves lower then forget about it for a while, support is failing. So if silver really does tank, then GPL chart needs review...
FF better chime in soon. All this fundamental carp is getting silly. Their all POS... :)
ReplyDeleteRBY - Sorry, the gap that needs filling is @ $5.52, so don't buy until it's filled. Primary bottom trend line is $4.42ish, and a secondary line @ $3.60
ReplyDeleteS&P - Looks like RSI(7) just turned under 70 today. More selling to come there, no doubt.
ReplyDeleteI still don't see much lift in the dollar yet, doesn't mean it won't/can't happen at some point. I guess if the market moves down that might make it happen.
That's better CP!
ReplyDeleteWe could post Jon Stewart videos every day, but this is really funny...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-may-2-2011/big-deady
Pay-by-Phone Dialed Back
ReplyDeleteCarriers Scrap Plans for Their Own Network, Look to Big Credit Card Companies
Read more: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704740604576301482470575092.html#ixzz1LLZOr5M5
Appropo to MITK?
Illini- Don't think so. I considered this when trading V, but always thought it wouldn't fly. Might hurt short term though.
ReplyDeleteGPL - I'm placing an order @ $3.24, with an expectation the silver correction is complete, or near complete.
ReplyDeleteHey, I wonder if any of these developing countries experiencing inflation wish they had a currency backed by PM's?
ReplyDeleteBALT/GNK - Earnings weren't exactly great apparently.
ReplyDeleteclassic jon stewart right there...hey abbottabad...fughettaboutit.
ReplyDeleteWhat's all this fuss over PM's about, anyway?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.investmentu.com/2011/April/pessimists-wrong-about-inflation.html
short CL @ .65
ReplyDeleteout, looking to re-enter at .78
ReplyDeleteSOB!!! missed the entry by 1 tick, now the Cl is puking....that's it, done for the day.
ReplyDeletegood luck traders!
Adding 1000 BEXP @ 30.10
ReplyDeleteMark - is BEXP always that volatile? I keep trying to get in but it"s swinging all over the place
ReplyDelete1000 BEXP @ 29.10
ReplyDeleteI have to admit I thought about UXG @ 7.8x but didn't have the guts.
ReplyDeleteCSCO/INTC just hang in there as if there's no sell off.
ReplyDeletesomebody had the ism # before 7
ReplyDelete1000 BEXP @ 28.55.
ReplyDeleteJB- No, it's normally not like this. I now have my original position back that I sold @ 36.83. This is a LT swing trade for me. Nothing I saw in the report scared me. They did what good E&P guys do. Used their cash for more land buys and will increase production to 12K-14K boe in Q2.
We'll see, but I'll stick with MOG's take on the Mang. team.
Buy stop BEXP 28.61. Need to see some strength
ReplyDeleteYou guys might want to take a look at another MOG favorite SM. Upgraded today after earnings yesterday to 90.
ReplyDeleteIn at 28.62
ReplyDeleteNice timing RB!! Holly cow :)
ReplyDeleteStopped out of my EUO position. But no for long.
ReplyDeleteFrom ST:
"The US Dollar has been pounded, both in terms of price and sentiment.
There is an odd contrarian here and there suggesting it's oversold enough to rally, but for the most part analysts cite a wicked confluence of fundamental and structural factors that will keep the buck suppressed for months, or years, on end.
That's fully reflected in our latest Public Opinion data. Recall that these indicators scoop in the data from a large number of available sentiment surveys, and weight them based on their historical success at highlighting extremes in the underlying price of the currency or commodity.
Due to a love affair with the Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar in particular, there isn't much love left over for the lowly Dollar, which has seen sentiment this lopsidedly pessimistic only twice before in the past 12 years, both in 2003.
In late May 2003, Public Opinion slid to 15%. The Dollar chopped back and forth for three weeks, then rallied about 7% over the next three months. In early December 2003, Opinion dropped to 14%. After that, the Dollar dipped another 3.5% over the next month, then rallied nearly 8% over the next four months.
Granted, it is only two precedents, but given how extreme the Opinion numbers are for the Dollar and its cross currencies, and the mostly extreme nature of the position of futures traders in the Dollar and the other currencies, it does look like any further drops in the buck should be more than made up when looking at the intermediate-term of the next few months.
Damn, man. SLV/SLW in free fall.
ReplyDeleteAlright, when Dr. S gives in, I'll buy.
ReplyDeleteThis FK er is like grabbing a tabby by the tail. I am going to put a 27.61 bid in and turn off the screen. Good luck guys.
ReplyDeleteThe CC should be interesting. Ole Bud Brigham will be non to happy to see his Co. get kicked in the teeth. I'll stay to listen to it.
ReplyDeletePicked up SLV 39.19
ReplyDelete2nd - Then you won't be a buyer, b/c Dr. S will never give in.
ReplyDeleteSilver could potentially move to $35.35
GPL will be reporting earnings sometime in June, they will be spectacular.
SLV 50 day $38, 11 week (not sure why its on my charts) 38.45. Picking up more 38.70-39.00.
ReplyDeleteLooks like possible reversal bar today. My guess is it pops tomorrow.
Silver - No doubt will test our(my) patience by closing south of $40.90
ReplyDeleteFor Dr. S, my take is a 39.50-39.75 close today w/ a retracement to 42.50-43.50 tomorrow..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bai.org/bankingstrategies/payments/remote-payments/the-checks-in-the-phone
ReplyDeleteWM - Does anyone think this company may some day become an electric utility?
ReplyDeleteWhile everyone was calling the bottom dollar a couple of days ago:
ReplyDelete"Portugal accepted a bailout from the EU and IMF totaling €78 billion, and the U.S. dollar is falling against its European counterpart as a result. Nevertheless, the trade-weighted dollar index is holding recent three-year lows near 73."
Why have PM's been so strong lately and now showing major weakness?
"Sources have reported that a few large hedge funds have sold at least a portion of their precious metals positions to lock in profits. But that selling is dwarfed by a massive 93 tonne purchase of gold by the Mexican central bank in February and March—one of the largest purchases of the last decade."
http://www.hardassetinvestor.com/features-and-interviews/1/2704-morning-call-may-4-2011.html
Well, we won't hear it if he gives up. We'll have to infer capitulation some other way- an extended period of silence, perhaps?
ReplyDeleteAMAT - So Varian sells the Ion Implant division to AMAT.
ReplyDeleteIon Implanters are interesting tools, the high throughput commercial production versions have impressively huge circular vacuum chambers with specially designed electromagnets affixed around the exterior. Size is comparable to a shortened school bus.
If the high voltage current doesn't get you (most accidents in this respect result in death to the careless technician), an arsenic exposure might (These machines are used for doping substrates, quite often with arsenic).
The Varian machines are thought of as the Cadillac of ion implanters, a nice catch for AMAT.
All right! The $28K transfer has just arrived from OptionsHouse into my bank account. I made an immediate transfer of $20K into Etrade (they are nice enough to allow me to use that money immediately), and placed a buy limit order for 10K shares of ECUXF at $0.67.
ReplyDeleteDr. S - I'd guess a confession would be forthcoming, but it would be so subtle most will overlook it b/c it'll be buried in the regularly scheduled unintelligible gobbldygook.
ReplyDeleteI have the impression from the way he expresses himself, he must be a PhD (Piled higher and Deeper).
SLV hit its 50 day @ 38. W/ silver bulls calling for $100 silver later this year, it should bounce very hard from this level. There's no way it goes to $100, let alone old highs, but I'd still like to ride the wave for a day or two.
ReplyDeleteDavid, that's great news! ;) This is gonna be fun watching it grow exponentially!
ReplyDeleteCALM - Looks like the March gap up has closed...
ReplyDelete$100 Silver, too funny! ;)
ReplyDeleteDamn! Even though I had $8K of cash in OptionsHouse, they issued me a margin call today because I was short a bunch of puts. So I just sold my 2000 shares of RBY at $4.77, which is right around their cost basis after the few RBY trades I made this year (bought 2K shares of RBY in low $4's during the Japan panic and then sold them in high $4's and low $5's). I still have 10 short May $5 puts for RBY, which I sold a month ago at $0.5, so maybe I'll reload 1K shares of RBY at $4.50 at May OpEx.
ReplyDeleteSold SLV after this spike @ 38.75 for a .25 loss overall. Have a hunch taht this might be it for the day as it runs into some stiff intraday moving averages between 38.81 and 39.93. Hoping for a crappy close and perhaps a gap up.
ReplyDeleteTake a look at a 3min chart for HEK. Someone wants out pretty badly.
ReplyDeleteLiked the BEXP CC...But I should.
I am shocked i am saying this. Long CSCO 17.49.WTF
ReplyDeleteDusted off the surfboard one more time. Surfing from 38.29. Good close to induce more pessimism.
ReplyDeleteGoing to vegas tomorrow for a friends bach party. Should I put all of my MITK money on red or black?
ReplyDeleteRoad the wave till the open of after hours trading. Out for the night 38.46.
ReplyDelete"rode the wave". I need to hire someone to read through my comments before I post because I sure don't:)
ReplyDeleteIs there a hydrogen powered car in your future? I'm not sure, but someone's been working on new ways to manufacture hydrogen...
ReplyDeletehttp://cleantechnica.com/2011/05/04/discovery-of-cheap-catalyst-advances-case-for-hydrogen-fuel/
HAYN - Are the rats deserting this ship or is this a pre-earnings shakeout?
ReplyDeleteCME - Another silver margin hike? Someone's really doing their very best to discourage silver speculation but why, exactly?
ReplyDeleteCEF was wild today. It was the only trade I made and luckily I got out with a few bucks after watching it drop a lot and recover.
ReplyDeleteH2O - remember when GWB touted it for cars in an early State of the Union address? Amounted to nothing. Energy dept under Obama finally killed gov support. The moly catalyst article was interesting though. Maybe there is still hope but probably not for cars in the near future.
Hydrogen - Yep, I can't imagine having to lug around and/or refill/swap out a high pressure gas bottle(s) every few hundred miles would be on anyone's list of enjoyable chores.
ReplyDelete