Wednesday, May 4, 2011
5/4/11 Did you make it to the milky way to see the lights all faded
No doubt recent buyers of silver have a serious case of heartburn. Which led me to pick up a small position in SLV near the close of extended hours trading @ 38.0x. I looked at it as the equivalent of walking into the local coin dealer and picking up a couple of 100 ounce bars + a few silver maples...without the hassle of leaving home.
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rb- So you're making a bet on CSCO earnings?
ReplyDeleteI think Team mentioned that he was going to Vegas soon. I've been watching room rates in Vegas for a long time the room rates during parts of this summer are the cheapest I've ever seen. There are tons of rooms at the crappy hotels for $13-$18 a night. Luxor is $50. Excalibur is $38. MGM in the $60's. Treasure Island $66.
ReplyDeleteI just booked a 750 sq ft suite at The Hotel at Mandalay Bay for $100 a night (close to $400 most of the time)and also a night at Treasure Island for $66 to hang out on the North end of the strip.
I'm not sure if this is indicative of the economy going forward, gas prices, or just a very seasonally slow season, but I'll take it!
On second thought, should I really be going to Vegas when I have a casino in my office in the form of SLV??
Nothing beats 3-4 hours at the craps table when things are going your way. I would trade in the morning, have lunch, game all afternoon, have dinner, catch a movie, go to bed.
ReplyDeleteSilver just touched its 50 day in after hours trading. It goes up tomorrow. Maybe substantially. No position.
ReplyDelete2nd I entered because of the chart. Nice tight triangle with a tight stop. I will only hold through earnings if the dice is hot. I might even press it. Fundamentally I think earnings will be disappointing, but that does not mean the stock will go down. If chambers can convince people he is the bad dude, that he once was there could be a intc type pop.
ReplyDeleteHere's the plan, Stan. Dump the SLV into strength. Buy CSCO ahead of earnings and hope they buy the bad news. Actually, I'm pretty confident they will buy the bad news, and just hoping they won't 'Bye the bad news.
ReplyDeletetof- I usually don't know whether to bet red or black until I'm actually standing at the table. Then my sixth sense tells me what to do.
ReplyDeleteCSCO - I'm still holding at losses on two buys. Thinking it is getting a small push now from Naz re-do. Wish it would be more like INTC and MSFT the last couple days.
ReplyDeleteBTW, my $$$ algo threw out a top spotter signal for all three indices on May 2 which was made a "confirmed" signal by the May 3rd price action. There have been 2 or 3 of these this year that all been overtaken/cancelled. Just a note of caution and I see other commentators who have turned cautious, including Barry Ritholz. The top spotters are often an indicator for a counter trend pullback and can be a heads-up for the reversal of the larger uptrend. The current signal will be wiped out if SPX exceeds about 1371.
As an addendum to above on SPX ..... both the short and intermediate terms will flip to a weak bear signal at about 1343. Thats not far away. Only about three points! Consider that a magnet line where there will be oscillations back and forth until a decisive change is established ... could become the support line that will serve for a bounce back up. Just my interpretation of the tea leaves that I am paying for and watching over a year now. Actually it is technical analysis which may not be every bodies cup of tea.
ReplyDeletecsc: Four consecutive earnings reports it has run up significantly and then spiked down hard after earnings. This time it has run down before earnings, so Csco must spike up after earnings to keep the universe in balance. right. Bad news is priced in. SoSo news will bring euphoria. All right enough of that I am selling tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteS&P RSI(7) is 53, down from the 4/29 peak of 80. The selling isn't quite done, according to this indicator.
ReplyDeleteText book head and shoulders on the monthly for csco. An 8 year pattern in the making. Of coarse i think this has no signifigance what so ever.
ReplyDeletehttp://finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=CSCO&ty=c&ta=0&p=m&s=l
I have a BEXP (Excedrin) headache...
ReplyDeleteYeah, well I have an SLV headache this morning. I thought picking it up at 38.0x near the close of extended hours was slick? It's now bidding at 36.64! I just moved from the craps table to the slot machines...
ReplyDeleteCould be an exciting open today. DIA/SPY bidding at yesterday's lows.
ReplyDeleteAdded to SLV @ 36.76.
ReplyDeleteOut of SLV @ 37.27. Total loss about -100.
ReplyDeleteOpening CSCO instead @ 17.37.
CSCO - Some News out re-organization over next 120 days
ReplyDeleteboth the 6E and ES look real ugly, too ugly to try to catch the counter trend (assuming one develops).
ReplyDeletethat said, ll 6E 4685, stop 77
ReplyDelete1/3 off 97
ReplyDeletestop up to be
ReplyDeletestop up to 89
ReplyDeletebig buying here at 92, stop up to 91
ReplyDeletewow, then a huge sale at 93, another 1/3 off 94
ReplyDeletetrying to get over the round #, stop up to 95
ReplyDeletestop up 97
ReplyDeletereal battle at 4700, if we get another thrust I'll move my stop up to the round #....we could run all the way to 4774
ReplyDeletegot me, stopped out.....+12 on the runner
ReplyDeleteLook, if someone can be all-in on silver and wake up 4 mornings in a row to these kinds of drops, more power to him!
ReplyDeleteAs for me, I'll take over 'skill' any day. Looks like I bailed on SLV and replaced with CSCO just in time.
ReplyDeleteGPL - Stopped out @ $3.26, for a whopping 2 cent gain.
ReplyDeleteBusy start. Sorry for the late post, but I added 2,000 BEXP @ 26.91. I also emailed MOG, but haven't heard back. Seems like everyone is worried about their hedge book. I'll have to trust MOG's take on mang. until I hear otherwise.
ReplyDeleteReopened AA/GE/CSCO/INTC/WFC. No shit. I'm suddenly bullish on large caps once more!!
ReplyDeletedamn Mark, you going to buy the whole co???
ReplyDelete2nd - you're now the Warren Buffet of this blog!!
ReplyDeleteHey bro, yeah, pulling a David on this one. If it didn't have MOG's blessing (at least a while ago) I wouldn't have done it.
ReplyDeleteLooking good so far.
Plus, I have a huge amount of blue chip MITK to steady my port :)
ReplyDeleteDid you say hedge book?
ReplyDeleteHolly explosion of capital creation!! :)))))
ReplyDeleteshoot your purchase probably drove BEXP up... :)
ReplyDeleteTRE is taking another dump, wonder if that "hedge fund" buy was a scam
YHOO - Breaking out???
ReplyDeleteThe Doctor might actually lose a little sleep tonight.
ReplyDeleteLooking at a chart only, SLV isn't a buy until about 33.
ReplyDeleteMKN upgrades BEXP to buy, pt 41.
ReplyDeleteI'm feeling regular,Fiber looks to be back in play JDSU.
ReplyDeletehey mark when you say huge amount of MITK what are we talking here?
ReplyDeleteU$D popped up big at 08:30 this morning, wonder what caused it?
ReplyDeleteSLV/GLD - Yep, I'm convinced at this point it would be wise to stay away.
ReplyDeleteThis of course means now is the time to buy... ;)
But I'm not gonna, sitting on my hands instead.
there are dangers lurking in the cloud:
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/3qlbps8
Here's my thinking: the smart money is selling metals/miners, and buying large cap value. It's that ----ing simple.
ReplyDeletecp - President Trichet talking about monitoring prices for the next few periods before making any policy changes. He's in no hurry to raise rates...
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/update
MITK - Does that thing work with rubber checks, I can't find my invisible ink pen this morning....;)
ReplyDeleteTOF- 20K shares.
ReplyDeleteGL guys. Amazing action today. Crude crashing has me a little worried. If the E&P guys can hold here against that action, I'll be impressed.
cl and 6e are train wrecks, now that the nq is in the red we could see an acceleration to the down side in the es
ReplyDeleteGLD sinking like a rock right now but I'm still holding along with RBY. Sold partials of CSCO earlier though.
ReplyDeleteI've noticed that they're selling off MITK each day with tiny sell orders then bigger orders move it up back up. I don't know what to make of it in the short term, but it seems odd to me that they can move the price down so much with small orders. They moved it down from $5.75 to $5.37 with tiny 100 sh to 500 sh lots.
ReplyDeleteCL- Wow...absolute free fall. Got to run, but I could be in real trouble here...
ReplyDeleteThey've got the Doc pinned in the corner and working him over. I just don't see him giving it up, though.
ReplyDeleteTritchet - Ah yes, thanks. The last rate increase put the Euro on a tear... No further rate increase could do the opposite, stop or slow that trend.
ReplyDeleteEUO - moving up, where's jesse?
"They moved it down from $5.75 to $5.37 with tiny 100 sh to 500 sh lots."
ReplyDeleteYep, computer algorithms seem able to move prices around these days. Just keep hitting the wires with a barrage of tiny but lower and lower bids and you give the impression of falling prices?
That what looks to me they're doing, seems strange it could work but if that's what they're doing they must do it for a reason(s)? So many trades constantly going through in 100 share lots, what could possibly be the purpose of that???? Sounds like a money pump to me.
Out of my UUP calls 1.21.
ReplyDeleteThey ----ed him up pretty good, but he's still standing!
ReplyDeleteOn a lighter note, I see they've probably shaken out the weak hands in the broader market, and I may end up moving back into OAKBX at the close.
Copper off another 3%, wonder if the Glencore IPO has anything at all to do with falling commodities prices? Metals have experienced lackluster performance putting lower highs and lower lows for months while equities have raced to the moon.
ReplyDeleteIf FCX can keep from trading below $47.50 I'll take that as a positive sign from the market gods.
U$D going for a retest of 74, I bet it holds and moves higher...
ReplyDeleteWhen does the TOG begin, or has it already passed us by?
ReplyDeleteCP, i pay more attention to copper than the silver and gold BS. I think that drop is significant.
ReplyDeleteMark i have a sell order at BE for me on Bexp. This stock is way too volitile for even me. Csco is so much nicer at its one cent an hour pace. Very relaxing.
ReplyDeleteI sure got today's silver call wrong.
ReplyDeleteIf its universally known that the dollar is going to zero, what does the average investor do? You put all of your savings into commodities. And then you borrow 100% on margin to buy more commodities since it is a given the dollar will be worthless.
I see massive margin calls ahead, so I see very little chance we see any sort of sustainable commodity bounce in the immediate future. However, we'll definitely see some trading volatility in silver.
Per Sentimentrader, the dollar should generally rise over the next few months.
UGA finally broke at 11am. Now we can take that summer roadtrip to Yellowstone.
ReplyDeleteSLV had a major drop today yet again. I am thinking that it has to be good for at least a dead cat bounce now. Even if SLV goes a little lower, that dead cat bounce should take it above the current levels. My SLV puts have almost tripled already, and so I decided to close them now at $13 (bought them for $4.85). Made $8000 on my 10 puts.
ReplyDeleteMaybe I'll re-invest the $8000 of "house money" into SLV puts at a lower strike price if SLV has a major bounce next week.
Another reason for closing my puts now is that ECUXF has stopped going down, and so I don't need them any more to hedge my position in ECUXF. In fact, my buy limit order for 10K shares at $0.67 was missed by a hair today, and since any price below $0.8 is a steal IMO, I have just raised my buy limit to $0.7.
My biggest worry now is that I won't buy enough ECUXF at these prices...
Screw it, raising my bid on ECUXF to $0.71. When it rises to $5, it won't matter whether I bought it at $0.67, $0.7 or $0.71.
ReplyDeleteDavid- I must say that I thought you were crazy for holding those puts overnight. Balls of steel. Another great trade! Looks like possible reversal pattern in the works for ECU as well.
ReplyDeleteA week ago, we were calling for $35 price targets for silver. Did anybody expect it would happen in 4 trading days!!!! Wow is all I can say.
ReplyDeleteRBY - The gap up has filled, wonder how much lower this puppy's headed? I'll be looking the chart over tonight.
ReplyDeleteLet the chips fall where they may... PM's can rally with the dollar, so all's not set in stone.
As Sinclair always says, "Sell the Rhino horn and buy the fishing line!"
ReplyDeleteDamn! ECUXF is running away from me -- guys, stop bidding it up! Let me buy it at least at $0.71!
ReplyDeleteI won't raise my bid anymore, as I have just looked at the $USD chart and got the feeling that today's up surge is just the beginning. I think PM's will stay under pressure for a while now.
ReplyDeleteIn SLV 34.99
ReplyDeleteCopper is well below the 150SMA now, it'll be amazing if it doesn't start dropping quickly.
ReplyDeletePatience, grasshopper!
Damn...is crude going for a 100 bucks at the floor close?
ReplyDeleteI sold most of my RBY a couple of hours ago while I still had a profit. Don't like the extreme volatility.
ReplyDeleteVolume in the Silver Tsunami has crashed TdAmeritrade's site.
ReplyDeleteOr else they're locking me out for overtrading. That's probably a good thing. Have a .15 stop in SLV that has probably tripped by now. I've tried several avenues to get into their site. None work.
ReplyDeleteCut through 100 bucks like butter...
ReplyDeleteOK, I lied -- I just raised my bid to $0.72 and bought 10000 shares of ECUXF. Now I can sleep well, knowing that I took an almost full advantage of the amazing sale that is going on right now for ECUXF. In order to take a FULL advantage, I just placed a buy limit order for 19000 shares at $0.65 (so as to invest all the cash I have in Etrade now). I have a feeling that this new order will never get triggered...
ReplyDeleteI looked at several other junior silver producers (GPR, FVI.TO, IPT.V), just to get a sense of what is going on with the sector, and surprisingly found that all of them are flat this week, despite an absolute collapse in the price of silver. So it looks like there was indeed a hedge fund strategy of shorting the miners and buying SLV over the past month, which is unwinding now. ECUXF might have no more downside left...
The one thing that is warming my heart is that in order to raise cash for buying more ECUXF at this amazing price, I sold my GLD at $150.50 and GDXJ at $41, close to their tops, and also bought SLV puts to hedge my potential downside from the extra ECUXF shares (which I sold already today). So all I need now is for ECUXF to rocket higher, and my trading over the past two weeks will look exemplary. :)
ReplyDeleteYour still alive Jesse!
ReplyDeleteLooks like the shorts in crude are covering before the floor close.
ReplyDeleteMan, here's one that got whacked...NOG.
ReplyDeleteDamn, they've got him pinned in the back room aGAIN!
ReplyDeletebeen tied up the stupid day job, I think it matter that the NQ is in the black. going to nibble a bit here
ReplyDeleteTell me why again I covered my silver short for pocket change and went full bore into the oil patch. I can't remember...
ReplyDeleteSLW... 2nd- He needs some help man.
ReplyDelete98 bucks...
ReplyDeleteKeep pushin' her down Mark. I've gotta do a lot of driving this summer. Vegas is at least 1500 miles from here:)
ReplyDeleteMoving the buy-and-hold from cash to OAKBX at the close!
ReplyDeletePer ST this am-
ReplyDelete"Despite the fact that stocks fell again, we actually have fewer oversold indicators now than we did yesterday. That's not typically what I prefer to see in a healthy uptrend. Usually we get more "extreme pessimism" indicators as stocks fall, so this is a minor warning sign.
Bulls would not want to see a lack of extremes with a string of down days, or a market that cannot rebound almost immediately once we get a confluence of oversold extremes.
With all the fuss around ECUXF, let's not forget another possible 10-bagger: GMO. I decided to use the extra cash I raised in OptionsHouse today to back up some more GMO short puts, and so I just sold 10 June $5 GMO puts at $0.9, so as to either pocket $900 or buy GMO at $4.10. If GMO drops to $4, then I'll sell a bunch of $4 puts on it.
ReplyDeleteLooks like I rushed with covering my SLV puts -- could have gotten 1K more by selling them NOW...
ReplyDeleteMark i got out of BEXP at 28.28. I know a whose, a puss, a swoosh. Not only do I have limp wrists I have weak hands.
ReplyDeleteMark-
ReplyDeleteFor the tsunami, you still thinking about that uptrend line from August @ $33.25ish?
Sold my GLD that I bought Nov, 2010 at 133. OK, I joined the panic.
ReplyDeletewow, everything has gone down hill since my 6e trade early this am.....sell in may-go away?
ReplyDeleteSLV poked outside of the upper Bollinger Band 5 sessions ago. Gonna close today, way outside the lower....
ReplyDeleteSeems like silver needs a quick spike down and then a big reversal for a bottom. Its been a straight line ever since the top.
ReplyDeleteJust bought 200 shares of SLV at $33.90 -- a dead cat bounce must occur soon...
ReplyDeletePlaced a sell limit order at $35.90 for the 200 shares of SLV I just picked up.
ReplyDeleteJesse- Yep, I have 33.08, but that's splitting hairs.
ReplyDeleteSurfing 33.50's after hours. Just about at SLV's trendline.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID660602&cmd=show[s202311998]&disp=O
Ah, so that's you, Jesse, who suddenly spiked up SLV from $33.50 to $33.95 after hours! :)
ReplyDeleteI just realized that I bought 200 shares of SLV at the close today completely with the "house money" I got as a profit on my SLV puts trade. So I am not so worried now about SLV continuing its descent...
ReplyDeleteSilver 31% 4 day correction. Bull market uptrend line will be right at 34 (continuous contract) tomorrow. I picked up a full position at 34.25 (SLV - 33.55) and will buy more if cont. contract approaches 34.
ReplyDeleteWill probably put stop in around 33 for SLV.
Today's low was within pennies of the uptrend line for SLV- 7th chart down...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID660602&cmd=show[s202311998]&disp=O
Surfs up:)
My port has been nickled and dimed all week long w/ constant stop losses. Probably down 6-7% for the week. I definitely feel like I've spent the past four days at the slots!
ReplyDeleteWe could see a slight pullback for the dollar manana...
ReplyDeletesentimentrader Jason Goepfert
Bear market bounces...when the US Dollar jumps 1.25% or more from near a 52-week low, next day positive only 33% of the time.$$
2 hours ago
sentimentrader Jason Goepfert
Hmm...Of the 47 times the S&P has suffered 4 days of accelerating declines, a week later it was up only 31% of the time. $$
1 hour ago
Exited SLV for a quarter. Making me too nervous. Took me 20 minutes to sell my position which is really strange given the volume during the day.
ReplyDeleteHoly crap did I miss quite an eventful day...looks the metals/ energy bulls are finally starting to feel some pain...no offense but its been a long time coming. I see MITK is holding up ok. IMMR another stock I like had blowout earnings after the close. Smart phones and anything related to it will be just fine for a while now. Its a secular bull mkt
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteMetals bulls FINALLY seeing some pain? Take a closer look at FCX/DBB and revise that statement, metals have been flashing warning signs and taking it in the shorts for months!
ReplyDeleteThe amazing part is that aside from PM's, metals sucked while most other commodities were flying.