Thursday, May 5, 2011
5/5/11 Back on the corner again, Back where I belong: Long and Strong
Here I am again, back on the corner again, back where I belong. Reopened AA/CSCO/GE/INTC/WFC on the opening drop. Reopened OAKBX on the closing drop. 83% long right now.
Taking that $100 premarket loss in SLV was either the smartest move I made today, or luck was in my corner.
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I don't care what they say, taking a -30% beating when one has been warned and should know better just isn't right.
ReplyDeleteHas anyone noticed the +1 correlation between wrenching sell-offs in the metals sector and the times I get blacklisted?
Alright, maybe it's a +0.998 correlation.
ReplyDeleteI'm loading 2-3% of the portfolio into the Cindarella Cleaning Company van.
ReplyDeleteNikkei opens down -2%.
ReplyDeleteMan I no longer think the silver sell-off is even close to its nadir. I'll call it SLV 25.
ReplyDeleteSLV 25, SPX 1400. Before June.
ReplyDeleteI'm back close to all cash, excepting for a losing CSCO and a small remainder in RBY. Will probably wait on things to sort out. Correction may have a ways to go and sectors like energy and miners are still pricey. I won't mess with big banks. Think they are all FUBAR.
ReplyDeleteSLV at 25 makes as much sense as slv at 50. SLV, GLD and diamonds for that matter are nothing but, chicanery. They do nothing and only have value because of a collective delirium that says these rocks have value. Even as a little kid i couldn't understand the fascination with the rocks. Maybe i should post this on CC and get put on waivers like 2nd.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't do that right now. A significant percentage will be shell-shocked, likely due to trading the sector in a big way for the first time. We already know they're going to lose everything they made in the runup. That's a law of human nature.
ReplyDeleteIf there's one sector that argues for the use of stops, that's it. I'm not reading many comments about having been stopped out. The lower it goes, the less likely they will stop out. The higher it bounces, the more hope it creates. Forget it. They're in for the long haul. They could still be holding when SLV ultimately hits the teens again...and stays there for twenty years.
ReplyDeleteThe only scenario that works out is if SLV ultimate blasts into orbit. But hey, most of them will be so happy to see 45 they'll be out before it even hits the stratosphere.
ReplyDeleteHuman nature, bro. That's the only thing that can be counted on.
ReplyDelete2nd I remember one time you said your mom had a silver bar from the run up in 1980. Hope she sold.
ReplyDeleteYour right I will not mention silver it makes me feel bad when people lose money.
I don't know what day it is there, but it is Cinco de mayo in Tucson. We are tipping back a few Negra Modelos and having a cook out man. Hopefully later i will sober enough to look at some charts I think it will be a big up day in the market manana. Looking to enter best of breed manufactures. Lower commodities has to be good for companies who actually make stuff.
ReplyDeleteRB- It's next Tuesday here...I think...
ReplyDeleteIs anyone still in F. Looks good right here even though it has a bearish candle. I like it right here right now with a stop at 14.50 ish.
ReplyDeleteWell if it is next Tuesday how did the ford trade pan out? Let me guess ford stopped me out at 14.49 reversed and is now at 18.25. Am i right?
Mark i am making my oil shopping list. I like these four for long term holds. I Wonder if MOG has opinion on them. BEXP of coarse. WLL, WNR and GPOR. GPOR has earnings tomorrow. I think if they have a sell off it will be bought. Of coarse I thought the same thing with BEXP. Bexp of coarse did have many bounces, i was just not mimble enough to trade it.F en Job!
ReplyDeleteRB- I've never talked with him about the refiners, and those plays seem to be over my head.
ReplyDeleteBEXP- Yeah at one point today I was green on the whole play, now down 9K. Just between you and me, I bought another 1000 shares near the close @ 27.31.
Keep it quite, OK?
MOG likes BEXP/PXP/SM/SWN/TLM/NBR/CLR/CVX off the top if my pointy head.
ReplyDeleteFrom S A: 4:45 PM SandRidge Energy(SD): Q1 EPS of -$0.02 misses by $0.04. Revenue of $313M (+48% Y/Y) beats by $10M. Shares -2.5% AH.
ReplyDeleteWasn't there some interest in this dog some time ago?
Illini- Yeah, at about 4 bucks...
ReplyDeleteBEXp has just gone nuts. The ranges the last two days were off the hook it has never put in candles like this.What is this stock AIG? The late January spike down was orderly compared to this. The Black boxes must be fucking with it. 27.50 seems like good support. Hopefully they will move to GPOR and SD tomorrow and Bexp will have an orderly melt up back to 30. The earnings were solid. A domestic oil company that is exponentially growing oil output is a no brainier. just got to get rid of the fucking speculators :).
ReplyDeleteRB- Your right. The algo's trade on fractions of penny's. Well over half of the trades today were fractions. 29.703 etc. They sniff out volume, that's all they need. I did see some interesting levels that created S/R. 27.30 was one. 75K shares flashed in the bid and I jumped ahead of it. It's worked so far. Tomorrow is another day, but buyers were stepping in at that level. Keep an eye on it.
ReplyDeleteThe silver sell-off continues.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, SPX futes steady to higher.
We await 'jobs.'
+244k (expected +175k)
ReplyDeleteSPX futes +15
ReplyDeleteBEXP up +2%.
ReplyDeleterb- Your instincts (under the influence of multiple Negra Modelos, one of the most reliable ways to access one's sixth sense) was right on, brother.
ReplyDelete2nd- What does OAKBX invest in again?
ReplyDeleteGap up must be filled?
ReplyDeleteMark- If I look up the top holdings on Yahoo Finance, I see Covidien, WMT, short-term treasuries, Cenovus Energy. Basically, it's a blend that seems to track the SPX pretty closely.
ReplyDeleteLong MTZ
ReplyDelete2nd- Got it.
ReplyDeleteRB- What's MTZ?
MTZ- Impressive chart.
ReplyDeleteThey are a utility infrastructure construction company. Towers, power lines sewer
ReplyDeleteQuite here today...
ReplyDeleteMetals - If you think metals have been on a tear, just take a quick look at the FCX chart.
ReplyDeleteGot to run. So, do we just melt away all of today's gains, or rally into the weekend. You guys have 3 hours to figure it out before I get back...And someone tell CP is safe to come out.
ReplyDelete:)
Or the TCK chart, for that matter. And many of the other miners.
ReplyDeleteENTR - Anybody like this chart?
ReplyDeleteENTR,
ReplyDeleteMe I like that chart
HAYN - Very nice!
ReplyDeleteMe like it too but why couldn't you find it at $8.5 instead of 9.5?
ReplyDeleteENTR - Okay, I'm willing to discuss this one, it looks like an H&S pattern to me, with the head in January.
ReplyDeleteI guess the H&S pattern is complete?
Yes that is a perfect example of a head and sholder pattern, but it is a bearish signal that should break lower than the sholder area. So I think a completed H+S would be a significant drop below the shoulder area. I believe it would be considered a failed head + shoulders if the stock went above 10 (left shoulder) and broke out. I ignore H+S for the most part. I like this stock long, But now you scared me with this H+S talk.:)
ReplyDeleteMore entr: Since I only hold stocks for two weeks at the most i only look at daily charts 3 to 6 months back. I would say it put in a double bottom(march and April Lows) and the buy point was at 8.50 which Illini pointed out. That is just the thing with this chartology Bull sh--. You can pretty much see what you want depending on time frame.
ReplyDeleteJust as I expected, silver made a dead cat bounce today, but it didn't hit my sell limit at $35.90. Unfortunately, now it is almost back to where I bought it, and so I just placed a sell stop for my SLV at $33.90/$33.85, to make sure that I "don't let a profit turn into a loss."
ReplyDeleteNote something else here, folks: the junior silver miners (FVI.TO, IPT.V, ECU.TO, GPR) had a VERY strong bounce this morning, when SLV bounced just a little, and as I mentioned yesterday these miners were flat all week as silver was collapsing. Now is the last chance to buy them -- looks like they don't have much downside left if silver continues its descent, but they have a TON of upside to them now...
ReplyDeleteNice bounce in SLV here! I was sure it will stop me out at $33.90, but it only came as low as $33.95 -- how strange. The mean hedge fund traders must be hunting much larger fish now... Or maybe they are being hunted themselves, after being long SLV for the past 6 months...
ReplyDeleteLong DAL. market looks weeeak!
ReplyDelete2nd_ave -- great guess, by the way, about going long yesterday!
ReplyDeleteStopped out flat from my yesterday's SLV purchase at $33.90.
ReplyDeleteDavid, Jinxed it again, Ehh. :)
ReplyDeleteThe miners don't seem to mind the afternoon weakness in SLV, though...
ReplyDeleteI'll pick up SLV again if it gets to $30.XX. Or if it makes an obvious bottom before that.
ReplyDeleteLong F
ReplyDeleteThats enough for one day.
Checking in w/ silver during my 3 day weekend. The 10 day chart almost looks too perfect for a big rebound. Looks like a launching pad. Sometimes when a chart looks "too good" well...
ReplyDeleteThe buy point is above several multi-day emas @34.80. The 34 period ema on the 15 minute chart has not been breached since the downtrend started. If we gap above on Monday, its a buy imo.... at least for a day or two..
Have a great weekend all!
ENTR - "You can pretty much see what you want depending on time frame."
ReplyDelete$4.60 looks like good support for ENTR to me, based on H+S pattern. Else if it can cross up over the 150dma(~$10) and has a successful retest?
Has Ben Laden washed ashore yet? Eaten by sharks? I think they should've beheaded him and placed the head on display.
When is a debate not a debate? Only on CC, when BC says PM's are overpriced and Kaimu says all global governments are bankrupt?
ReplyDeleteReal message coming through clear as mud, LOL!
FCX - Look at that P/E, wonder why it's so low?
ReplyDeleteINTC - That PE is under 11. Is that the best the world can do; demand for the Pentium is really that low?
ReplyDeleteEUO - Isn't it about time to short the euro?
ReplyDelete"Thompson Creek Metals beats by $0.06"
ReplyDeleteHAYN - Closed up 12% today, as well...
Who's using up all this metal, is it the US military?