David - I posted this long response but of course it got deleted. Anyway, I basically just noted that I confirmed the margins and revenue per transaction with the company and that there is no way they can confirm the earnings / # deposits per customer as it's a rapidly growing market driving in large part by customer demand.
A couple of independent research companies issued projections on mobile checks deposited and mobile banking users and using those estimates and only a 50% market share (currently MITK has 100%) I estimated earnings of $1.40 to $2.10 per share. If they hit 75% then it's $2.50 to $3.50 per share. These high growth tech stocks trade at big multiples so assuming 30 times earnings it could be a $50 to $100 stock. And this assumes no value for their other products like Bill Pay or document capture. I'd recommend listening to a few conference calls if you're interested in it. This thing has a long run ahead of it.
Just read the TZOO earnings transcript. This might be a big play on Groupon's eventual IPO. Has anybody here heard any news on when it might be? I have only heard sometime in the Spring.
TZOO launched its local deals biz a few months ago.
Subscribers: Groupon- 50 million TZOO- 3/21- "just under 20 million" 4/5- "surpasses 23 million"
Per the cc, TZOO isn't experiencing any competition in its local deal segment as its deals are vastly different and higher price and margin than "competitors".
From the cc: "To end the presentation, let’s turn to slide 17. Travelzoo’s strategy is to be the quality leader in travel, entertainment, and Local Deals. This deal, our one millionth deal, which was published on March 30, epitomizes our definition of quality leadership.
"and now have just under 20 million subscribers to our publications in Europe and North America. Along the Y axis, we’re growing the revenue per subscriber. Local Deals has become a substantial driver here, you can see already that we increased our revenue per subscriber from $6.70 to $7.80 from Q4 go Q1.
As we launch new markets and become more productive in existing markets, we see significant incremental revenue per subscriber gain. I’ll talk about this in a moment. Other important drivers in revenue per subscriber on the Y axis include revenues from fly.com, our flight meta search business, sales team optimization, as well as time in markets, especially in our new markets in Europe."
Kaimu - Have to admit, Kaimu does a great job of digging up facts and figures, but I can usually find a hole somewhere in many of the points he makes. This doesn't mean I think he's going to be wrong in the short or medium term but I have serious doubts about his hyper inflationary theory. I think the US and Europe will eventually come through the funk with currency intact.
Anyway, while Americans stand in line to buy iPads, what do Indians stand in line for?
If there are any bottom scrapers in the audience, look at ORA and CALM now. I have made intra-day trading $ in the last two days but it is like pulling teeth. Not recommending, just telling and they are in the value category. Still mostly in cash since Thursday. CSCO a hold.
BTW- How crazy is this...I haven't felt 'right' for about a week and hadn't had a blood test in about a year. Get this! My sodium is too LOW! F'en a man. You can't win for losing....
TZOO just a chart play for me. As long as people keep speculating about a Groupon IPO, this one could have some serious legs based on comps. 7 year cup and handle forming w/ breakout above $108ish. I think it reached $108 on .09eps or thereabouts. EPS is and will continue to ramp hard over the next few quarters.
It certainly isn't cheap, but every one of these big money momo plays have bounced hard off their 10wma's over the past year or so. W/ 23 million dedicated subscribers, they can make some serious coin off of local deals and blow out the analyst estimates over the next few quarters. For momo stocks, it ain't about the valuation, its about blowing away the estimates and attaining silly triple digit forward PE ratios.
Jesse, just look at pcln it is a 26 billion dollar company. Tzoo 1 bil. Has anyone ever used PCLN? Funny thing is they say facebook is worth only 60 billion. Facebook will be worth more than google in 5 years. Just look at the charts I posted last night. 500 million users that use facebook 61 hours a month.
I plan to celebrate with 562.5 mL (graudated cylinder right here, amigo) of Jose Cuervo Gold.
ReplyDeleteHere's to the David Crosbys of the world!
I want to hit the exact same state achieved yesterday, now that I know it's possible to type under the influence of a 0.31 BAC.
ReplyDeleteBAC- What a dog, man. Maybe it's time for me to start thinking seriously about buying.
My biggest story of the day? OAKBX +0.48%. Not a bad day for that lineman.
ReplyDeleteWow nice clip. I saw CNS in 2000 and frankly they were terrible. Very sad. THis shows they still have great energy, Nice.
ReplyDeleteI would wait to buy Bac when its .31.
ReplyDeleteRaised the margin reqirements on crude futures by 25%.
ReplyDeleteDavid - I posted this long response but of course it got deleted. Anyway, I basically just noted that I confirmed the margins and revenue per transaction with the company and that there is no way they can confirm the earnings / # deposits per customer as it's a rapidly growing market driving in large part by customer demand.
ReplyDeleteA couple of independent research companies issued projections on mobile checks deposited and mobile banking users and using those estimates and only a 50% market share (currently MITK has 100%) I estimated earnings of $1.40 to $2.10 per share. If they hit 75% then it's $2.50 to $3.50 per share. These high growth tech stocks trade at big multiples so assuming 30 times earnings it could be a $50 to $100 stock. And this assumes no value for their other products like Bill Pay or document capture. I'd recommend listening to a few conference calls if you're interested in it. This thing has a long run ahead of it.
Just read the TZOO earnings transcript. This might be a big play on Groupon's eventual IPO. Has anybody here heard any news on when it might be? I have only heard sometime in the Spring.
ReplyDeleteTZOO launched its local deals biz a few months ago.
Market cap:
Groupon IPO - $25 billion (est.)
TZOO- $1.2 billion
Subscribers:
Groupon- 50 million
TZOO- 3/21- "just under 20 million"
4/5- "surpasses 23 million"
Per the cc, TZOO isn't experiencing any competition in its local deal segment as its deals are vastly different and higher price and margin than "competitors".
From the cc:
"To end the presentation, let’s turn to slide 17. Travelzoo’s strategy is to be the quality leader in travel, entertainment, and Local Deals. This deal, our one millionth deal, which was published on March 30, epitomizes our definition of quality leadership.
For $899 per person, our subscribers were offered six nights in Ireland with stays at the Four Seasons, the Ritz-Carlton, and the Condé Nast Gold List hotel, and that deal included round trip airfare and rental car. Unlike $5 deals on $10 lunches, or 50% off teeth whitening, deals like this are not easy to craft. They require a high degree of expertise and trust."
"and now have just under 20 million subscribers to our publications in Europe and North America. Along the Y axis, we’re growing the revenue per subscriber. Local Deals has become a substantial driver here, you can see already that we increased our revenue per subscriber from $6.70 to $7.80 from Q4 go Q1.
As we launch new markets and become more productive in existing markets, we see significant incremental revenue per subscriber gain. I’ll talk about this in a moment. Other important drivers in revenue per subscriber on the Y axis include revenues from fly.com, our flight meta search business, sales team optimization, as well as time in markets, especially in our new markets in Europe."
TZOO - We haven't looked into that one here yet as far as I know...
ReplyDeleteOINK - What a stinker that one was today, LOL!
FTWR - Hey, it didn't lose today, what's up with that?
Kaimu - Have to admit, Kaimu does a great job of digging up facts and figures, but I can usually find a hole somewhere in many of the points he makes. This doesn't mean I think he's going to be wrong in the short or medium term but I have serious doubts about his hyper inflationary theory. I think the US and Europe will eventually come through the funk with currency intact.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, while Americans stand in line to buy iPads, what do Indians stand in line for?
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/142862/20110509/indian-demand-overwhelming-on-golden-day-to-buy-gold.htm
JB- You have a life time experience with these tiny SW co.'s. I know you expect a BO, how do these normally go?
ReplyDeleteIf there are any bottom scrapers in the audience, look at ORA and CALM now. I have made intra-day trading $ in the last two days but it is like pulling teeth. Not recommending, just telling and they are in the value category. Still mostly in cash since Thursday. CSCO a hold.
ReplyDeleteOil - I guess it's true CME raised margin requirements after hours...
ReplyDeleteJesse - I'm a huge fan of TZOO and actually think it will hit a much higher market cap in 2012-13. I wouldn't be surprised if it's in the $200 area.
ReplyDeleteTZOO et al...Man I just don't get these ones. Probably my bad and being 'old'. Not old like 2nd, but old non the less...
ReplyDeleteBTW- How crazy is this...I haven't felt 'right' for about a week and hadn't had a blood test in about a year. Get this! My sodium is too LOW! F'en a man. You can't win for losing....
ReplyDeleteMark-
ReplyDeleteTZOO just a chart play for me. As long as people keep speculating about a Groupon IPO, this one could have some serious legs based on comps. 7 year cup and handle forming w/ breakout above $108ish. I think it reached $108 on .09eps or thereabouts. EPS is and will continue to ramp hard over the next few quarters.
It certainly isn't cheap, but every one of these big money momo plays have bounced hard off their 10wma's over the past year or so. W/ 23 million dedicated subscribers, they can make some serious coin off of local deals and blow out the analyst estimates over the next few quarters. For momo stocks, it ain't about the valuation, its about blowing away the estimates and attaining silly triple digit forward PE ratios.
The gold is in the subs.
Jesse, just look at pcln it is a 26 billion dollar company. Tzoo 1 bil. Has anyone ever used PCLN? Funny thing is they say facebook is worth only 60 billion. Facebook will be worth more than google in 5 years. Just look at the charts I posted last night. 500 million users that use facebook 61 hours a month.
ReplyDeleteMSFT is buying skype.
ReplyDeleteI guess it's true. What Cp don't you trust me.
ReplyDelete