Tuesday, June 7, 2011
06/07/11 Teach Your Children
'Their father's hell did slowly go by
And feed them on your dreams'
Does the teacher in fact appear when we're ready? Right on. (Re)read Chuck Jaffe's perceptive commentary:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-need-to-take-a-chance-on-risk-2011-06-05
'Most people don’t understand risk. They see it as a chance to lose.
In fact, risk is a chance to win. Or, as described in one of the more interesting research papers to cross my desk in a long while, “risk is payment for a chance to reach our aspirations.”
The problem for most people is that they can’t see risk as the price of the ticket for the game.
If risk is, indeed, the price paid to have a chance to reach our goals and dreams, then investors should be looking at current market conditions and embracing the risks rather than avoiding them. Accepting risk is a small price to pay if it gives you the best chance to reach your goals.'
Understand thyself:
'Accepting a small gain in exchange for certainty of avoiding loss feels good, but in truth this move is hardly risk-free, especially when seen through the lens of Statman, author of “What Investors Really Want”: If the gain is insufficient to help the investor reach their goals and dreams, they may take solace in avoiding losses but they will still be unhappy about the outcome.'
David and I crossed paths at breakfast, and I handed him 'instructions' to my 'cleaner:'
Take 70% of the 70% in OAKBX, and make the following exchanges:
20% FSELX
20% FSPTX
20% FSCGX
20% FSRBX
20% FJPNX
This moves 50% of the portfolio into the above, which are heavily weighted in trashed blue chip companies. Still holding 30% in AA/CSCO/GE/INTC/WFC. 15% OAKBX.
Do it for the family. Be happy.
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Sold 3000 @ 28.00 BEXP for a swing trade profit of $1,550.
ReplyDeleteRemain core 6000 shares.
XLE goes red.
ReplyDeleteHere's the thing. F comes out today and say's they are going to sell 7,000% more cars at 5,000 times higher margins....and it's been selling off since the open.
ReplyDeleteTrades want cash right now.
Today: Alright then, Bernanke speaks today so I'm waiting to see the reaction. Higher rates mean less easy money to slosh around and speculate with, so I'm hoping that's not first on the agenda.
ReplyDeleteBEXP- Man, that sucker moves fast. 2% swing in about 5 minutes.
ReplyDeleteF - Huh? F is up $0.16 now and gaped up.
ReplyDeleteBEXP - Yes it does, you've got to be fast, fast, fast for sure! Unless it's going up, which it is, for now.
ReplyDeleteBEXP- Today's presentation effect? Crazy.
ReplyDeleteCP- F- Yeah, but it was @ 14.23 and now @ 14.03. Could be wrong...But man, those were some pretty bullish comments today.
ReplyDeleteLast I checked no one ever got rich off investing in money market funds and Treasurys...risk is the name of the game
ReplyDeleteXLE- Man, I hope that was just a shake out. Tough game we play.
ReplyDeleteF - Well, I'm sure there are quite a few folks that are thinking twice about prospects in the auto market, last quarter sales were disappointing from what I caught.
ReplyDeleteThen looking at RSI's last night, S&P was a tad under 30, in oversold territory by this metric.
ReplyDeletetof- No 6000% gains over 2 years on those two asset classes that I know of.
ReplyDeleteDeficit - It doesn't have to be that way, with this unpayable overhanging debt. Just fire up the printing presses and pay it all off.
ReplyDeletePAL - Looks like as good an entry as we've seen in nearly a year.
ReplyDeleteBAC - Something tells me I won't ever have another chance to buy BAC at $3 again, and there's a mid April gap @ $12.75 that needs to close....
ReplyDeleteRisk versus Reward
ReplyDeleteIt reminds me of my first mentor who says,
If you don't play you can't win.
If you don't have any chips you can't play.
F...LOD.
ReplyDeleteGL players. Not enough to entice me here ST.
Jaffe, I remember e-mailing him years ago when he wrote an article dissing market timing. Some may recall it was when some funds were internally back dating trades for their best customers or themselves, thus guaranteeing a profit. This is basically having a crystal ball of what the market would do 24 hours in advance except they did after the fact.
ReplyDeleteThe whole media and mutual fund business was all over it on TV touting the ills of market timing and creating barriers to timers.
Their premise was/is wrong, what the perpetrators did was "FRAUD" and had nothing to do with market timing. I tried to get Jaffe to retract his article and call it for what it was fraud. I gave up after a few nonsensicalness back and fourth discussions.
TRE taking yet another dump, 130 is a stubborn cap on SPY today. bought XHB @ 17.63
ReplyDeleteCP, you may like this article that refers to GMO.
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/273682-molybdenum-just-keeps-getting-better-and-better
from a market profile standpoint the ES needs to bounce off 1289 and roll back and thru 1296
ReplyDeleteTalbots - To close 110 stores.
ReplyDeletePMI - another new 52 wk low...
ReplyDeleteObama - "More work to do"
ReplyDeleteDuh, how about some detail on that?
T3d - GMO - Thanks, I think I've read that article.
ReplyDeleteObama - "Pace of economic recovery must accelerate."
ReplyDeleteOkay, let's hear a reasonable plan from inside the beltway, ASAP please.
CP - I guess the part about the actual PLAN was inadvertently left off the tele-prompter, again
ReplyDeleteSPY making a post lunch run at 130, come on baby!!
ReplyDeleteBest thing Washington can do is get out of the way.
ReplyDeleteThink it was Obama's last speech when he talked about making it easier to do business in America. Wonder how much progress they've made on that one
Nice break through for SPY here. I'm surprised, but that's the way it usually works, right?
ReplyDeleteLat's hope this has hit bottom.
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/Ygm33v51e
T3d - Let's put this in a positive spin because everyone seems to like taking the negative side...in looking at that chart rough calculations suggest:
ReplyDeletea.) almost 80% have at least 5% equity
b.) the percentage of people underwater has been trending in the positive direction for the past 5 quarters.
TOF, yes that is a positive, thank goodness. But this chart points out that it is going to be a long time before people will ever be able to use their homes a ATM machines again and implies consumer spending weakness except for the wealthy.
ReplyDeleteYou may be very well right that rising corporate profits and spending by corporations will power us through this slack period into the next upturn as monetary injections by the FED are becoming weak and weaker as the exponential growth in debt becomes immune to this type of Keynesian approach.
There is a lot of suffering in our country today.
TOF, I know you dislike this site, but this shows the data even better by state.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/images/Negative%20Equity.jpg
"Best thing Washington can do is get out of the way."
ReplyDeleteThey're great at doing that when the economy's down for the count. Otherwise they're busy screwing anything hot and hollow from a gnat's ass to a horse's collar.
I'm perceiving weakness going into the close.
ReplyDeleteI haven't heard anything about Bernanke's comments, I guess I'll have to search for them.
CP- Bernanke in 15 minutes.
ReplyDeleteDon't think houses were meant to be used as ATM's. I think we'll look back at that time period and wonder how people could be so foolish.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't be too concerned with American consumer spending as far as picking investments goes. It is low and will likely stay fairly flat with government support until the balance sheets get repaired. If you want to invest in companies which produce consumer products, try and figure out what the Chinese consumer wants. It's predicted to be up 70% from 2010 or $1.7 trillion (http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/newsrelease/counselorsoffice/westernasiaandafricareport/201106/20110607583675.html).
Still think it is far easier to just invest in things like energy, agriculture, metals, technology, high-end industrials that China will want no matter what happens.
2nd,
ReplyDeletelooks like a good set of funds you picked there, but meant to ask, what is it about the AA/CSCO/GE/INTC/WFC group that gets them the high weighting in your portfolio?
Wasn't BAC's huge offering @ 10.00?
ReplyDeleteSPY...LOD. Man, making it really hard on da bulls.
ReplyDeleteWow...we are in the middle of an ugly candle here. Any news?
ReplyDeleteAh- Bernanke notes released.
ReplyDeleteSeems like the market wasn't overly impressed with anything the FED had to say today, that must mean there's no plan but to move out of the way and let the chips fall...
ReplyDeleteZSL - I'll tell ya, sure do wish I'd bought ZSL when silver was hitting $50, that was a no brainer lost opportunity in a big way.
ReplyDeleteXHB has reached my target. I'll see if I can get a really good entry @ the close.
ReplyDeletePAL will be long before close, as I sold 6/1 at 6.91. Technically the chart is not that positive. On the plus side is positive parabolic and about a 61.80% retrace on weekly.
ReplyDeleteThe big negative is negative price momentum.
BB, agree with everything you said with the proviso that Chinese consumers have much less disposable income but huge numbers.
You know what? I got to leave after the close and I have no idea what the Nanker might say, so I'll wait until I get back.
ReplyDelete"Stocks fell after Bernanke began speaking. The Dow Jones industrial average erased gains made earlier in the day and close down for the fifth straight day, as did broader indexes.
ReplyDeleteBernanke noted the May jobs report released last week was disappointing. It showed the unemployment rate rose to 9.1 percent and the economy added just 54,000 jobs, the fewest in eight months. But he said he expected job creation and overall economic growth would rebound in coming months.
He repeated a pledge that central bank officials have been making for more than two years: that they will keep interest rates at record lows "for an extended period."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bernanke-sees-stronger-growth-apf-1400024229.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
PNC Sees "Incredibly Rapid" Adoption Rate of Mobile Deposit
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ydr.com/business/ci_18223857
"The adoption rate of these products has been incredibly rapid," said Tom Sposito, retail banking market manager for PNC Bank in central Pennsylvania.
PNC has 5.5 Million checking accounts.
Sticking with my 1260 call.
ReplyDeleteFF!!! Nice of you to drop in. Don't be such a stranger :))
Mark > a drop to 1,260 would make the most sense in terms of throwing people off the train. i think we will see some volatile sessions coming up soon. if i cared more i would try to trade it.
ReplyDelete