Wednesday, June 8, 2011

06/08/11 Do anything to take us out of this gloom, Sing a song, play guitar, Make it snappy



Thanks to jb for the inspiration.

Every trading strategy has its day. The thing with buy-and-hold: it's a helluva lot longer than a day!

I can't get into the day-to-day bull---- right now.

56 comments:

  1. This evening I'm exploring alternative perspectives.

    For instance- take a 5-year chart of CSCO and pretend for a moment it's a daily chart. Then it's clear this sucker is going to bounce.

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  2. Try to do it without the benefit of any mind-altering substances.

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  3. http://www.cnbc.com/id/43332928

    interesting take

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  4. Is BEXP all gas and no oil? From their website it's not clear what the breakdown is since they express production in terms of Boe/day. Being big in the Bakken shale leads me to thinking they are mostly producing gas. Not that theres anything wrong with that. But oil is better than gas at todays prices.

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  5. Other way around Illini. BEXP is one of the highest liquid plays out there. I'll see if I can get the right #'s.

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  6. Illini- OK, it's about 90% liquids according to GS and CS. I can email you the CS PDF if you like. CS has a PT of $43.

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  7. I found it now Mark, in their latest presentation:

    "Significant oil driven reserve growth - Williston Basin drilling drives 141% reserve growth
    – Proved reserves total 66.8 million Boe, 78% oil, 35% proved developed, 55.5 million Boe Williston Basin reserves
    – Highly attractive $9.23 per Boe drilling and leasehold acquisition finding and development costs"

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  8. Either way, definitely oil orientated.

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  9. Illini- Yeah, in fact because of the remote area and lack of pipe lines, I'm pretty sure they flare off almost all the gas.

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  10. Downside to owning BEXP is present price/valuation. FinViz has red on p/e, peg, p/s, p/b, plus debt. Upside is green on fwd p/e and eps next 5 yrs. Growth. Other than debt, financials are good, especially margins which are great.

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  11. CP, thanks for the Rodriguez article.

    My favorite line, "He says he fell in love with investing in the first place (as opposed to architecture, another early interest) because it was a field where success isn't based on subjective opinions. "I said, 'Gee, there's an exam every day. And whether you're good or bad is independent of somebody else,' " he says. "If they say, 'That's a lousy idea,' and it works out, that's not their judgment -- the market has judged."

    And for you value players, "In his equity fund he maintains a highly concentrated portfolio of about 30 stocks and holds them for many years, buying and selling on dips and bumps. He spends months researching before taking the plunge."

    Here is some of his holdings:

    http://www.nasdaq.com/reference/ownership.stm

    I think its great that I can look over the shoulder of some of the greatest minds in the business.

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  12. WOW! 2nd, great song, great band, and all time great voice. I have always dug double drummer's. How do you find these great vid' so consistently?

    Heck even if I did not trade I'd show up for the music.

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  13. FIRST PACIFIC ADVISORS, LLC

    http://www.nasdaq.com/reference/ownership.stm

    copy the above in the box

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  14. Yogi Bear, are you out preventing forest fires?

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  15. could provide a bump to MITK:

    Global payments technology company Visa Inc. has announced that it will buy South African mobile financial services firm, Fundamo, for $110 million in cash. The acquisition is expected to lower its EPS for the year ending September 2011.

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  16. Got to admit, the last few days have been tough on BEXP. Luckily, I was able to scalp some coin on the way down.

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  17. Food for thought

    By Carey Gillam
    KANSAS CITY, Mo., June 7 (Reuters) - High-tech seeds and innovations in
    chemicals and farming will not be enough to solve looming food shortages
    for the world, according to a report issued Tuesday by a committee formed
    by food and chemicals conglomerate DuPont .
    Billions of dollars in private investment, government incentives and
    charitable work must be funneled into collaborative projects if global food
    production is to match growing demand, the report urged.
    Both biotech and organic farming will play a role, said the report by
    the DuPont Advisory Committee on Agricultural Innovation & Productivity for
    the 21st Century.
    "People are starting to recognize that food demand is outstripping
    supply," said DuPont executive vice president Jim Borel, who oversees
    DuPont's agriculture and nutrition business.
    "If the world doesn't figure out how to effectively deal with this
    challenge, then the results are ugly," he said. "It is becoming clear...
    that society has to figure out ways to work together differently than we
    ever have."
    World economic and agricultural leaders have projected the world's
    population will surpass 9 billion by 2050, and 10 billion by the turn of
    the century. And they have forecast that global food production must jump
    70 percent or more to meet demand.
    Indeed, global grain stocks are currently at historically low levels,
    sparking high prices for corn, wheat, soy and other crops.
    Such dire warnings have prompted a rush by investors and public and
    private groups to buy up agricultural land, and have agriculture seed and
    chemical companies like DuPont and its competitors rushing to roll out
    higher-yielding seeds and more potent fertilizers and herbicides.
    .

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  18. cont:
    The report stated that lagging public policy support for increased food
    production, outdated and ineffective infrastructure, and a lack of cohesive
    efforts by public and private players were among the many hurdles to
    increasing food production.
    Africa and south and southeast Asia were pegged as key areas in need of
    cohesive development efforts.
    "There is nothing easy about what we have to do," said former U.S. Sen.
    Tom Daschle, who chaired the committee. "This is one of the greatest
    challenges facing the human race."
    He said billions of dollars will have to be spent to achieve nutritious
    and adequate food supplies for the world's population.
    "It is going to take tremendous financing if this is going to happen.
    If we don't do this collectively and in a collaborative way, then we are
    going to fail," Daschle said.
    The recommendations issued by the five-member committee included a call
    for increased long-term corporate investments in emerging markets to create
    jobs and raise incomes and to improve education and youth development;
    government incentives for those private-sector investments; and stronger
    intellectual property rights and land rights provisions.
    The committee also said that governments need to adopt harmonized
    regulations for plant biotechnology, such as the genetically altered corn
    seed developed by DuPont and rival seed companies.
    Investments are also needed for roads and bridges, as well as storage
    and processing facilities, according to the report.
    And the report cited subsidies and trade distortions as problems that
    have distorted the international food and agricultural system.
    In addition to Daschle, the other committee members are Charlotte
    Hebebrand, chief executive of the International Food & Agricultural Trade
    Policy Council; J.B. Penn, chief economist for Deere & Co (DE
    DE DEERE & CO. 82.260002
    Change +2.300003 (+2.88%) AS OF 10:28 AM ET 06/09/11.
    Chart for DE Research
    ) .; Pedro
    Sanchez, co-chair of the Hunger Task Force of the Millennium Project, an
    advisory body to the United Nations; and Jo Luck, president of nonprofit
    Heifer International and co-winner of the 2010 World Food Prize

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  19. Maybe this is giving MOS a boost.

    WPRT long

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  20. Dead cat? I think not, but refraining from trading what I think. Therefore, making the mistake of not committing further capital until at least this afternoon. BEXP is my target.

    Meanwhile I'll be looking over Rodriguez's holdings report. Tkx for the idea, T3D.

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  21. WPRT out about 6.54%

    we took out 1289 which some resistance, maybe push to 1995 ring register

    Good night.

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  22. WOW, 1/2 off 101.15, stop to BE

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  23. s.o. 101.20, still that little move made my week, much much lower profit goals now that I am UI, was a perfect MP rotation.

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  24. PAL - Last I checked, the world is still going to need catalytic converters. Maybe at some point I just have to forgive management for wasting shareholder money to buy a clapped-out hobby gold mine from their uncle's cousin.

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  25. PAL 5 block trades nice small base

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  26. PKX - Sheesh, those silly Koreans gaped up PKX...

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  27. Well, PM's are moving and miners appear to have joined the party, so that's somewhat encouraging...

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  28. Mark,

    Own MGIC from back in 2008 / 2009 for average cost of $1.60 (sold 3/4's in the $7 area), but I think we should get a double out of this from the current $4.50 in the next year or two.

    Good company doing a lot of things really well and in a good market space. Think SAP or Oracle would take a run at them if it weren't for the majority ownership of Formula Systems.

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  29. hopped back on the SPY Calls - $129 calls expiring tomorrow at $.89 avg. I think we get a +200 or more DJIA day.

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  30. Added 2k shs of MITK at $6.35 and $6.15...someone is panicking out of their shares today which is what I expected.

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  31. cashed in my SPY calls..trying to eke back some of yesterdays trading losses.

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  32. Does this sound vaguely familiar?

    "Recent data in the U.S. have showed a struggling housing market, and the Federal Reserve last week turned more cautious in its assessment on the economy. Investors increasingly are coming around to the view that the Fed's ultra-low interest-rate policy will remain in place for the rest of the year and even into 2011.
    The anxiety was further heightened as a gauge of the economic outlook for China, one of the world's leading growth engines, was revised sharply lower than previously thought. The fear pushed down riskier assets from stocks to commodities." (WSJ, 6/29/2010)"

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  33. Bought some SPY $131 puts expiring tomorrow at $1.42...only for a trade...

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  34. close the SPY puts out at a loss...now down for the day....argh

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  35. managed to make $150 on SPY calls just now...I also sold my 2k shs of MITK at $6.6 that I bought at $6.25 average this morning. So I have made back about $700 in my trades today...chipping away at my losses from yesterday.

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  36. Is today the day the correlation finally breaks down? U$D/Stocks/Oil/MITK all go up together??!! :))

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  37. TOF- Too funny. I picked up some more trading shares of MITK before I left, but had to run and couldn't post...
    2000 @ 6.28
    2000 @ 6.23

    I'll hold mine for a while longer.

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  38. WPRT out, the market has weaken pretty good at the close lately, so let's.

    Gun to head this goes another day, but you never know Fina/Ins look interesting here, for a trade.

    GS, MS, MF, sking anyone?

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  39. Nice trades TOF/T3D... I kinda agree on the 2 dayer.

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  40. You too? The market moves with or without you...

    "Sleight of hand and twist of fate
    On a bed of nails she makes me wait
    And I wait without you

    With or without you
    With or without you

    Through the storm we reach the shore
    You give it all but I want more
    And I'm waiting for you"

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmSdTa9kaiQ

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  41. Enough is enough, where the heck is VB and what's she been up to these days????

    She knows what we've been doing on the internet.

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  42. Sounds like the banking establishment isn't quite off the hook yet unless they can quickly find some buyers. You'd think they'd be knocking down our doors but no, I haven't seen the whites of their eyes. Perhaps they can't see the forest for the trees?:

    "Falling home prices have shrunk the equity Americans have in their homes to nearly the lowest percentage since World War II."

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  43. Mark - I bought my shares on margin on MITK so I figured I'd take the money and run.

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  44. I too added shares of MITK today, at $6.17. I was on my new laptop at a remote location (babysitting at grandkids house) and I could not post from that platform. It won't recognize my sign in to my Google account. Maybe it's because I'm using Internet Explorer on the laptop, LOL. On my desktop I use Chrome.

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  45. CP- You nailed it with the road issue. After you posted that link, I did a little more scratching around, and it was a big deal.

    4:34PM Brigham Exploration lowers Q2 production guidance; co Provides Williston Basin Operational Update, Provides Second Quarter Production Update and Affirms Full Year 2011 Production Guidance (BEXP) 27.55 +0.26 : Co announced that the acceleration of its activities in the Williston Basin remains on schedule after adding its eighth operated rig and plans to be at 10 operated rigs by July. Brigham also announced that it has brought on line to production seven additional wells in North Dakota since its last operational release and to date has completed 68 consecutive long lateral high frac stage wells at an average early 24-hour peak rate of ~2,831 barrels of oil equivalent. Importantly, despite the difficult weather conditions, this would represent a sequential increase in production volumes relative to Q1 2011. Williston Basin Operated Drilling and Completion Update Brigham's accelerated development of its acreage in North Dakota and Montana is proceeding with five operated rigs drilling in Rough Rider, two operated rigs drilling in Ross and one operated rig drilling in Montana. Brigham plans to add its ninth operated rig this month and its tenth operated rig in July. Furthermore, it plans to add two walking rigs in Q1 of 2012. Operations in the Williston Basin have been impacted by the worst winter in 100 years and more recently by precipitation that resulted in the closure of roads in Williams County for several days. Despite these tough operating conditions, Brigham believes that Q2 2011 production will still fall within the previously issued production guidance, with the likely outcome being at the low end of the 12,000-14,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day range. Encouragingly, this would represent a sequential increase versus the 11,314 barrels of oil equivalent per day that was produced in the first quarter 2011. This assessment was made based on the best data available to Brigham at this time. As a result of the updated assessment, Brigham reiterates its full year production forecast of 14,000 to 16,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day for 2011.

    Now, the question is, is this already priced in. I'm guessing yes. However, another Bakken players OAS go an upgrade today and they will have to be having similar issues. So, how far out is the market really look?

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  46. What the hell is wrong with Jim Rogers bottom teeth?

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  47. All right. Having watched BEXP very closely for months now and how it trades, I suspect they will jamb it down hard tomorrow on this release. So, I just sold 3K shares AH. I hope to pick those back up at a 2-3% discount.

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  48. This was at a loss of about $7K.

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