Saturday, June 11, 2011

06/11/11 Buy-and-Hold v Market Timing

Reading assignment for the weekend. I want comments, rebuttals, and/or entire essays handed in by Monday.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/08/passive-active-investing.asp#axzz1OvU1HOmu

56 comments:

  1. Thanks for the Buffett take, BB.

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  2. CZI - Anyone? How's China looking lately?

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  3. Some girls do, some girls don't.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqF7ZGfFaD0&feature=relat

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  4. BAP - LME Copper inventory is at height of year, which means demand, and prices, may soon have bottomed...

    Shanghai - RSI's may have bottomed, they seem to be moving up. Could be a bounce, someone check my observation...

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  5. BAP/EPU - EPU just filled it's gap down, BAP gap down still needs to fill...

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  6. Sittin' On The Dock Of The Bay | Playing For Change

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Es3Vsfzdr14&feature=relmfu

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  7. CSCO - been reading lots of stuff talking about how cheap it is. Forbes/Seeking Alpha. Positive reinforcement for me to hold on and maybe buy some more here.

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  8. From Barron's Roundtable, Barron's Cover | SATURDAY, JUNE 11, 2011

    Felix Zulauf's Picks

    Instrument/Ticker Price 6/8/11

    Short*

    SPDR S&P Metals and Mining / XME $65.28
    Industrial Select Sector SPDR / XLI 35.51
    Technology Select Sector SPDR / XLK 25.10
    Financial Select Sector SPDR / XLF 14.76

    Buy*

    Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR / XLP 31.10
    Utilities Select Sector SPDR / XLU 33.16

    *Short/Buy through November.

    Source: Bloomberg

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  9. Scott Black's Picks (Barrons)

    Company/Ticker Price 6/8/11
    Helen of Troy / HELE $30.57
    Alliance Resource Partners / ARLP 67.84
    Source: Bloomberg

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  10. Bill Gross' Picks

    Price/Yield
    Investment/Ticker 6/8/11
    Annaly Capital Management / NLY $18.48/13.46%
    Pimco Corporate Opportunity Fund / PTY 20.09/10.42
    Pimco Income Strategy Fund / PFL 12.45/9.78
    Source: Bloomberg

    BTW, NLY was the pick of Jim Grant in a video about a month ago. I sold in late April @ $17.59 for a profit after holding for 3 weeks. Wishing I had not now. Has been strong.

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  11. CSCO - The other possibility might be to track SPY/SSO/TNA/etc. against CSCO and then make a lateral move at some point near the perceived bottom. Assuming CSCO holds or doesn't drop more, the lateral move might be an option.

    Not saying it's the best move, just a thought for consideration. TNA currently has a steeper slope than CSCO, and has fallen more this month, for example...

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  12. CP - Thanks for suggesting. I note that I have made four profitable trades on CSCO since my initial/too early entry. Those have eased the pain somewhat.

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  13. MUB - Quite a run off the Jan bottom, looks like a good short now?

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  14. CSCO:TNA is on an upswing but vs SSO is flat and vs SPY is down. Risk in any bull bet now?

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  15. MUB - "Muniland Update & Whitney on Squawk Box"

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/06/muniland-update-whitney-on-squawk-box/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29

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  16. Muni's - Cramer is recommending. Beware.

    http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/video/ts/SIG=12kcgqdfs/*http%3A//www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/11149726/1/cramer-buy-muni-bond-funds.html?cm_ven=YAHOOV&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

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  17. Fred Hickey's Picks per Barrons:

    Company Ticker Price 6/8/11
    Short
    iSharesPHLXSOXSemi Sector SOXX $55.45
    Buy
    Goldcorp GG 47.02
    Source: Bloomberg

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  18. Meryl Witmer's Picks per Barrons:

    Company/Ticker Price 6/8/11
    Macquarie Infrastructure / MIC $24.66
    Innophos Holdings / IPHS 42.56
    Source: Bloomberg

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  19. Oscar Schafer's Picks

    Company/Ticker Price 6/8/11
    Xerox / XRX $9.46
    TE Connectivity / TEL 35.19
    Salix Pharmaceuticals / SLXP 36.66
    Source: Bloomberg

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  20. Archie MacAllaster's Picks

    Company/Ticker Price 6/8/11
    Visteon / VC $60.47
    Hartford Financial Services / HIG 24.42
    Source: Bloomberg

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  21. Marc Faber's Picks

    Buy after a stock-market correction of 15% from recent high:*

    Investment/Ticker Price 6/8/11
    THAILAND
    Advance Info Service / ADVANC.Thailand 92.75 baht
    AEONThana Sinsap / AEONTS.Thailand 34.00
    DEFENSIVE STOCKS
    Procter&Gamble / PG $64.85
    Johnson&Johnson /JNJ 66.14
    Roche Holdings / RHHBY 42.73
    Nestlé / NESN.Switzerland 53.30 CHF
    H.J. Heinz / HNZ $53.14
    DEFENSE
    Raytheon / RTN 48.15
    SHORT
    Australia andNewZealand Banking / ANZBY 22.49
    iShares iBoxx$High Yield CorpBdFd / HYG 90.16
    Salesforce.com / CRM 140.28
    *S&P 500 closed at 1363.61 on 4/29/11.
    Source: Bloomberg

    A gold bug? "Is gold still attractive at $1,500 an ounce?"

    "Not to own gold is to trust the value of paper money and the government's integrity. No one in his right mind could trust the U.S. government any more. The government's economic statistics are distorted and there is no consensus on how to solve the budget crisis. So, yes, people should own some gold. It can correct by $100 or $200 an ounce, but you own it as an insurance policy. The world is grossly underweight gold. It is flooded with U.S. dollars. Investors might be bearish about the U.S. dollar, but international dollar reserves exceed $9 trillion. Compared to that, there is very little gold."

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  22. Mario Gabelli's Picks

    Company/Ticker Price 6/8/11
    El Paso Electric / EE $30.17
    Brink's / BCO 27.44
    National Fuel Gas / NFG 67.92
    Genuine Parts / GPC 50.50
    Schiff Nutrition International / WNI 9.31
    Source: Bloomberg

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  23. Abby Joseph Cohen's Picks (cant say that I agree)

    Company/Ticker Price 6/8/11
    Johnson & Johnson / JNJ $66.14
    Boeing / BA 73.85
    Ford Motor / F 13.70
    Source: Bloomberg

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  24. That's it as far as as the Barron's Roundtable Roundup. As a parting thought, I am in the Zulauf & Farber camp and still on the sidelines with 40% cash. Good night.

    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903425204576373910676523034.html?mod=BOL_hpp_highlight_top#articleTabs_panel_article%3D1

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  25. IPHS - Phosphorus will play a key role in the corporate farming bandwagon that's going to be tasked with feeding the world's survivors going forward.

    VE - Water is as well.

    I think there's liable to be huge interest in stamping out world hunger, or at least greed on behalf of some to secure the natural resources necessary for food production.

    Petrochemicals, water, farm machinery and everything that pertains.

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  26. $INDU - A nice pinch is forming, 11,315 is the Fibernachi target should the decline continue beyond the March low of 11,563.27, which I suspect we need to retest at least:

    http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$indu&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736

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  27. Buy and hold Vs passive. 2nd why not do both? I might be wrong,but in the 3 years I have been observing your trades your day trading is off the charts good in times of extreme volatility. Your sentiment gauge (which I believe is only known to you) is working best then. I say have a segregated account with 85% in buy and hold and have 15% in reserve (liquid bond fund) to day trade during times of high volatility. You could put a rule that you are not allowed to day trade until the VIX is over a certain level. I think you might only trade two or three weeks out of the year, but it could be a good hedge to a buy and hold position and keep you from over trading during the doldrums when you should just be sitting in a buy and hold position. For myself maybe I should just buy property in bullhead and forgetaboutit.

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  28. 2nd - Your comments over the past 2-3 weeks reminded me of something Cramer said in 'Confessions of a Street Addict' (p 15):

    After returning to law school in the fall, I decided that I couldn't go back to a law firm no matter how much they paid me. I had to make enough money in the market to show Wall Street investment firms that they should hire me. That fall, a few weeks before the great bull market began, I had an epiphany that we were due for an explosion in prices that would make anybody who was heavily invested a fortune. I could see things coming together for a major run at new highs under a Reagan presidency after a prolonged period of a totally stink-o-performance, hobbled by Carter's anti-stock presidency and a Federal Reserve chairman determined to destroy anything financial with astronomically high interest rates.

    You may be having an 'epiphany', and as they say in the movies, 'Yippee ki-yay Motherxxxxer' ...

    But you're way EARLY!!! It may unfold as you suggest - that a return to buy-n-hold works, but the world is very different now (w/ globalization, etc) and the USA doesn't have any 'Internet cards' in the back pocket now. In fact, our financial apparatus is barely functional and only through holding substantial screw-ups 'Off Balance-sheet'. All the failures are Off balance sheet, ALL the debt is ON balance sheet...

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  29. T3d - U out there??? Have time for a MA-Fan question?

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  30. AONE - Has really taken it in the shorts this past week.

    Anyway, found an article on MIT's latest "goo battery":

    http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2011/flow-batteries-0606.html

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  31. cp - candlestick tails - ACAD, AZK, FRPT, JBLU, JKS

    Just a Scan...

    [type is stock] and [country is us] and [1 <= close] and [close <= 190] and [sma(3,volume) > 300000] and [max(5,high) - max(5,low) > 0.10]
    and [[Hammer is true] or [Shooting Star is true] or [Gravestone Doji is true] or [Dragonfly Doji is true] or [Bullish Engulfing is true]]

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  32. Kyle probably every finy has a rattail also.

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  33. xlf

    http://finviz.com/publish/061211/XLFc0dl1415.png

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  34. rb - but other than NCT and MCGC, I don't see any other financials on the scan results

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  35. 2nd- Ok, I didn't read any of the comments so my take is only based on the link provided. Pretty hard to argue with, but the results would have been much less compelling if current. You know as much about me and my trading as anyone. It took a hell of a lot of work to get back all of the money I lost in the last down turn, and my returns since then have been far better trading my account.

    According to how Schwab figures my returns, since inception, I'm up 45%. The best bench mark they provide is the RUT which is up 26% over the same period. Frankly, that seems like a small delta to me, but considering where I was a one point, I'll take it.

    On the other hand, if I had more money to invest/on the line, I'd scale back my trading and look for at least 25% divy plays. 50% LT and 25% trading.

    I just feel the need to be a little more aggressive at this point in my life.

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  36. Keep your fingers crossed and anything else you can think of for Patricia's dad. This time might be different.

    Triple bypass and a new valve a few days ago. Complications arose and had to have an emergency pacemaker implanted. Today one of his lungs collapsed. He's so swollen now they say he wont be able to open his eye's for a week.

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  37. Finy's...Yep, was here when the reserve news hit and thought, yep, that just might be enough.

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  38. Kyle,
    here is a lower shadow scan i run on finviz. i set it for financials only. 19 came up. All these charts look ugly as hell. Bear flag on low volume and i will look to short.
    http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&f=sec_financial,sh_avgvol_o200,sh_price_o3,ta_candlestick_lls&ta=0

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  39. Patricia's dad - Our thoughts are with him!

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  40. Mark.
    Best wishes to your father in law. Hopefully he will fight through it.

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  41. Read the article as well. I agree with the premise that in general buy and hold does very well. I do believe you can outperform the market as an individual investor, but it requires a lot of hard work and discipline. It also helps to look at smallcaps which are not over-analyzed like the S&P500.

    The big concern is if you are the time period where the market will return 3.1% for the upcoming 20 years. Fortunately, I think these periods are not that difficult to identify. If you think back to 1998 - 2000, many stocks were obviously overvalued and if you buy and held through that period, you go the negative 10 year return. If you instead were disciplined and avoided most of these, you underperformed short term, but dramatically outperformed longer term, but it was difficult to stay disciplined.

    I think at the current time, our 20 year return is much more likely to be near the higher end than the lower end, so it is a good time to buy and hold, but I still think you need to be ever-observant and keep your eyes on things.

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  42. RB - Man, those financials charts look depressing. Reminds me that Felix Zulauf sez short XLF.

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  43. 2nd - I read the article. Thinking it's out of date. Since 2000 the market has been cyclical and volatile and down. Even as it has been supported by massive stimulus including war and leading to unreasonable debt. That's a reality not to be ignored. To me it means watch out. But what do I know? Personally am not a very successful trader.

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  44. So will a .28 reduction in the price of gas make the difference like Cramer is implying? My question is, really? We're that close to the edge?

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  45. Thanks guys. I'll tell Patricia.

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  46. Watching Cal baseball and did a quick check on Dallas Miami. Miami has fucking quite. Unreal.

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  47. Kyle, very busy, you asked "Have time for a MA-Fan question?"

    Sorry, I do not use fan lines.

    Ro Bear is the ORO Valley in Tucson and Saddlebrooke a nice area in AZ? We are thinking of renting there for a few months to check out the area and AZ. TIA

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  48. Mark, good luck, my Dad has been through and you experience a lot of pain if they open up the chest. The results are usually very good. t3d

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  49. hey mark - we'll be keeping patricia's dad in our prayers.

    2nd - its funny that we all know buy and hold works the best but none of us are tried and true buy and holders. i've personally never held anything for more than a year so i can't say i really agree with buy and hold over active management of your investments. i've had a lot of success with investing over the past 7-8 years but i try to keep an open mind and remind myself that just because something works for 5 or 10 years doesn't mean it's foolproof.

    in my mind buy and hold will be a great thing to do but my gut instinct tells me that while there is a good chance we go up to 1,500 in 2012, i think we still trade in the 1,000 to 1,500 level for the next 3-5 years, at which point when we bottom out in the middle of this decade, then it will be a good time to do the buy and hold thing.

    when it comes to investing, the hardest things to do are:

    (1) buy after a stock/market has gone up a lot and still have the confidence to hold for greater gains
    (2) buy when everyone hates a stock/market
    (3) know when to sell after a big gain
    (4) hold on to a stock/market etf even if it goes against you in a big way

    investing is mental....mastering the art of your own mind (i.e, knowing your own limitations) is the key to success. that's why i love reading 2nd's posts...he knows this as well as anyone i've ever read.

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  50. i can't help but keep looking at how the markets traded exactly 100 years ago as a guide....the market traded sideways from 1901 to 1921 before taking off. i kinda get a feeling we do that sideways thing for several more years. i bet that buying at 1,050 and selling at 1,400ish works for another 5 or so years.

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  51. I am currently reading a book called "Active Value Investing" by Vitaliy Katsenelson. In it he argues that "buy and hold" strategy works well in a bull market. He then argues that we are currently in a range bound market, exactly what teamonfuego is describing above. The strategy that works in range bound markets is not "buy and hold" but "buy low and sell high" i.e. Active money management.

    On a seperate topic I am wondering why nobody is playing TZA, TWM, etc. in this correction. I know it was a popular play during the last one. Anything special here? I am thinking of entering a TWM position to hedge against further slide in small caps and hopefully make some money on the way to 1250 where we seems to be headed...

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  52. Tele ,
    Very nice suburban area. For the most part the area is devoid of the strip mall ugliness that pervades the rest of Tucson and Arizona for that matter.Golfing and cycling is the main attraction. Beautiful mountain is never out of view.
    http://www.google.com/search?tbm=isch&hl=en&source=hp&biw=1440&bih=779&q=oro+valley+az&gbv=2&oq=oro+valley&aq=1&aqi=g5g-m2&aql=&gs_sm=c&gs_upl=2113l8609l0l14l13l1l1l0l0l292l2091l0.7.4

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  53. TZA/TWM - Agreed, we should be doing just that. Other options for the shopping list would be EUO and CZI as well!

    Actually, I'm looking to catch the bottom and add.

    You never know when something sinister may happen, catching your short position on the wrong side of the trade...?

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