Wednesday, June 15, 2011

06/15/11 Market Timing Gods



http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-big-money-isnt-always-the-smart-money-2011-06-15?pagenumber=2

'This is what we’re paying the big bucks for? These guys have been loaded up to the gunwales with stocks, holding too few bonds, and no gold, for a decade. Nice move.

'I’ve noted before that, on occasions, their collective gaffes have been mind-boggling. They dumped their last remaining Japanese stocks right at the lows, in April 2003. Then they loaded up again in 2005, after Japanese stocks had already boomed, before bailing yet again. In June 2007, they fell madly in love with European stocks, and loaded the boat. Merrill called it “EU-phoria.” European stocks then crashed.'

Read the entire article for the full story.

I won't be praying to any market timing gods. I'll let the Market do its thing.
Posted by at

25 comments:

  1. AnonymousJune 15, 2011 at 4:57 PM

    If I had to put a bet on the market I would say we get a rally from here to 1,300 to 1,310 and then we get a sharp draft down to 1,220, at which point its ok to buy.

    But what do I know?

    ReplyDelete
  2. RoBearJune 15, 2011 at 5:16 PM

    I'm with Team. The direction will not be easy short or long.Technically a range bound market.

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousJune 15, 2011 at 5:17 PM

    my thinking is that we will get a bounce here to the 1,310 area just to give people the impression that the bottom is in but ultimately the March bottom will be broken and the prior breakout level of 1,220 will be tested, at which point it makes sense to get and stay long.

    ReplyDelete
  4. RoBearJune 15, 2011 at 5:17 PM

    With lots of chop!

    ReplyDelete
  5. RoBearJune 15, 2011 at 5:20 PM

    At some point the dip buyers are going to have to pay for their lunch. Its been a free for two years.

    ReplyDelete
  6. ChickenpookieJune 15, 2011 at 6:44 PM

    Copper - Hmm, so if China is replenishing copper primarily from outside LME, then today's reported drop in LME inventory may be a sign of demand not just from China but from somewhere else as well, like perhaps India + others.

    Just thinking out loud here...

    ReplyDelete
  7. ChickenpookieJune 15, 2011 at 7:53 PM

    GNK - The pincher play is working:

    http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=GNK&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&i=p90415345641&a=232558243&r=4518

    ReplyDelete
  8. Telestar3dJune 15, 2011 at 7:56 PM

    2nd, I think its great that you have decided to become a B & H if that is what works for you as ultimately that is the name of the game. One of the best books I read on it is titled " Winning the Loser's Game" by Charles Ellis.

    For me it is about absolute return not relative return and an attempt at reducing risk profile. For instance, when I use to run money and the SP returned 33% and I was up 28% clients would get really upset and some would leave.

    However, when the market was down -20 and I was up 10% that was my reward. The funny thing about it was that most clients did not understand how good that was, but one did, a prominent attorney in town whose money I ran called me up and said I should be in Forbes. The nicest compliment anyone ever game for managing their money.

    And that's all I will say again on market timing.

    ReplyDelete
  9. ChickenpookieJune 15, 2011 at 8:05 PM

    CSCO - Is repinching:

    http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=csco&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736

    ReplyDelete
  10. ChickenpookieJune 15, 2011 at 8:13 PM

    GPL - Pincher play still in progress:

    http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=gPL&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736

    ReplyDelete
  11. ChickenpookieJune 15, 2011 at 8:16 PM

    $INDU in progress, ADX is flatlining, MACD hasn't yet:

    http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$indu&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736

    ReplyDelete
  12. ChickenpookieJune 15, 2011 at 8:28 PM

    BEXP - That same chart for BEXP, neither ADX nor MACD are flatlining yet:

    http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=BEXP&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736

    If you can duplicate this/these chart(s) on your platform, switch them to a 60min chart and have a look.

    ReplyDelete
  13. ChickenpookieJune 15, 2011 at 8:38 PM

    BEXP - Sure looks like a battle is setting up around $25 to my eyes. I hate to say anything though so pretend I didn't, okay?

    ReplyDelete
  14. illiniJune 15, 2011 at 9:23 PM

    BEXP @ $26.23 (after hours): Below MA 200 (27.32), below EMA 200 (27.46), slightly above EMA 250 (26.11). The battleground is defined. $25 would mean the bears have gained a long term threshold.

    ReplyDelete
  15. ChickenpookieJune 15, 2011 at 9:56 PM

    BEXP - You may be right about that, oil seems to have capitulated, closed the Feb gap up on volume, right?. Maybe BEXP did capitulate this week on that volume spike...

    ReplyDelete
  16. BB CanadaJune 16, 2011 at 4:59 AM

    Another convert to 2nd's Buy and Hold approach (in this case to Dow 20,000)

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/8-reasons-you-stink-at-trading-stocks-2011-06-16

    ReplyDelete
  17. MarkWJune 16, 2011 at 6:03 AM

    How much pressure will the riots in Vancouver have on the markets?

    ReplyDelete
  18. KyleJune 16, 2011 at 6:08 AM

    cp - BEXP - Depending on how SRSI comes off the bottom and how the EMA(21) intersects the Full STO in the 30 area, there may be a buy signal coming up...

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BEXP&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p47829413558

    If the chart comes through...

    ReplyDelete
  19. MarkWJune 16, 2011 at 6:36 AM

    Lots of disagreement on FNSR.

    RB- Call the ball.

    ReplyDelete
  20. JBmaderaJune 16, 2011 at 6:36 AM

    hey Mark - I don't think the Van riots will have any impact, according to my buddies up there the extent of the riots is being way over blown by the national media

    ReplyDelete
  21. MarkWJune 16, 2011 at 6:44 AM

    JB- I know man, just kidding :)

    Trading anything?

    ReplyDelete
  22. JBmaderaJune 16, 2011 at 6:51 AM

    ah, didn't catch that...the huff post makes it look like the whole city is on fire.

    the only thing I am looking at trading today is DBV and once the natty report is out I'll take a look at CL

    now I'm off for my one hour walk...BORING!

    what are you looking at?

    ReplyDelete
  23. MarkWJune 16, 2011 at 7:09 AM

    BEXP...From afar. I think the dip buyers after the Philly Fed are in for some pain. To much risk right now to take on more risk for me.

    ReplyDelete
  24. MarkWJune 16, 2011 at 7:16 AM

    Looks like the take is...Can't get any worse than that.

    ReplyDelete
  25. ChickenpookieJune 16, 2011 at 7:32 AM

    BEXP - $25.35 held, an encouraging sign?

    FCX is holding up fairly well so far too.

    GMO - Hard to believe this one still hasn't moved back to $4

    GNK - Rally still in progress, what a leper's stock that thing is.

    ReplyDelete

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)