Thursday, June 16, 2011
06/16/11 Bad starts
I can't count the number of times an endeavor, a class, a date, or a day has started badly for me. I guess I can count my decision to begin buy-and-hold among them. Disheartening, yes- but almost every one of my bad starts had a good ending.
Good luck today. I'll be on the road for one of my side jobs.
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BEXP - I'm wantin' ta nibble here, gonna wait til afternoon and see where she is.
ReplyDeleteGPL - Looks like this train may be waiting for the silver signal.
ReplyDeleteGPL - That is, we're right at the $2.50 double bottom neckline here at $3.29
ReplyDeleteGPL - Add volume and stir.
ReplyDeleteGreece wants to increase tax's on swimming pools? That will take care of things ;)
ReplyDeleteout of my CSCO at $15...waiting for lower prices in the market in general.
ReplyDeleteNothing for me here. I agree with TOF's take above.
ReplyDeleteAt the close.
Looks like a double bottom in the smallcaps (IWM, TNA) and the financials (XLF and KRE). Since small caps have led the rallies for the most part for the last couple of years, makes sense they would bottom first.
ReplyDeleteDip buyers on lunch break?
ReplyDeleteFNSR. I think this is a reaction to value internet infer structure companies like utilities instead of growth stocks. CSCO JDSU ect may just have to get use to a 10-8 PE. The internet is dead I guess. The public sector being broke kills these companies. What, international, national state local university or school district entity has the money to upgrade their networks? This space has more room to the down side unless they can increase their exposure to emerging markets.
ReplyDeleteS&P - The gap up from two's day is filled, now when does yesterday's gap down fill?
ReplyDeleteToday maybe?
What happens when corporate America starts guiding down?
ReplyDeleteIs this gonna happen or not?
Bout time they stepped on Weiner... I'm tired of hearing about it.
ReplyDeleteChicken,
ReplyDeletewhy do you think corporations are going to have to guide down? The economy is still growing (just slower) and companies are watching their expenses slowly to ensure don't outgrow revenues.
Plus, with the pullback we've had, valuations are cheap, so there is some downside protection for minor guidedowns.
Looks like Bernanke's in the green on the T' paper he bought up...
ReplyDeletePIMPCO - Egg on their face.
BB - I don't know if the guide downs are coming, it's just something I'm trying to consider.
ReplyDeleteSeems to make sense though, if the global economy is slowing then guide downs should be forthcoming?
Yeah I know, Bernanke thinks growth is coming but what I need after today's lunch is a Rolaids. ;)
PM's - Not much of a deflation hedge today. Outperforming equities yes, but not the dollar...
ReplyDelete"PM's are a deflation hedge" - Oh please, don't make me throw-up!!! ;)
Nice chart by GW from the dark side.
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/xg7ChjWrbHR
T3d - GW does some nice charts. Vad had a couple of SPY discussed yday...
ReplyDeletehttp://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/
TZA had a nice trend continuation UP move from 1300-1425 or so
One more day with a VIX jump like today and I'll start scaling into VXX puts. It worked out VERY well during the Japan scare, as VXX collapsed from $37 to $27 in a blink of an eye. Now, if VXX gets to $30, it will collapse to $20 in a blink of an eye once the panic subsides and the contango starts eating it away...
ReplyDeletewow..i should have gone to the short side sooner. I had a really good day trading today. I bought a bunch of AAPL $330 Puts expiring on Friday after it spiked up and just sold them...I think I'm basically back to where I started a week or two ago in the daytrading account. I probably should be holding out for more gains but they were up 140%.
ReplyDeleteSitting on hands for the rest of the day...I think we get a buy to 1,300-1,310 very soon and then we drop to 1,220.
You guys watching AAPL? That's not mom and pop selling.
ReplyDeleteGood work TOF!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/16/us-capitalone-ing-idUSTRE75F5J320110616?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=71
ReplyDeleteGuess who just won the 20th largest US Bank as its customer through this deal? MITK
Pretty amazing action. I can't make heads or tails of it. Especially the miners.
ReplyDeleteAnd XHB is green. How crazy is that!
ReplyDeleteP!!!! Are you kidding me!!! That can't be shorted!
ReplyDeleteTOF- I'm sure you saw this one late yesterday...
ReplyDeleteREDWOOD SHORES, Calif., June 15, 2011Ensenta, the leader in self-service remote deposit capture and risk management, announced today that it has joined forces with Mitek Systems, Inc., the leader in mobile-imaging applications using smartphone cameras for check deposits, bill payments and ACH enrollments, to bring a wide-ranging mobile remote deposit solution to banks and credit unions.
MITK - I see it gaped down and then filled to the penny. Just an interesting observation.
ReplyDeleteYeah, gold and copper are pretty flat, but the gold and copper miners are getting killed. Wonder if one of the big brokerages put out a report saying stay out of the miners.
ReplyDeleteGLD - down 0.5%
GDX - down 2.3%
Should be GLD down 0.05%.
ReplyDeleteGDX getting a descent bounce now.
20 minutes to decide whether to add or not today.
No circuit breaker for P?
ReplyDeleteBB- Same thing in energy. Crude flat/ XLE down. Drillers MUCH more.
Drillers/miners - Perhaps we're observing a Greek default being priced in, or is someone culling baby seals in advance of a currency devaluation?
ReplyDeleteWhat are the charts telling us? Frankly, I'm still one foot in, the other foot out split down the middle but I don't see how authorities can afford further mistakes (whatever that means, at this point anything they do will be unfair to the masses).
GDX - They smashed it out of the range.
ReplyDeleteGDX - Still pinching:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=gdx&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
OIH - Hasn't been clobbered in quite the way miners have:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=oih&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
I have been watching the market from a distance and returned on Monday from 3 weeks @ our nation's great National Parks in Utah, Colorado, Arizona, California, and Vegas :)
ReplyDeleteMy guess is the BLT (Bin Laden Top) has played itself out for the most part for the time being. The stretched bullish extremes that we saw the last week of April and first week of May have now reversed to bearish extremes.
1) I saw a huge headline today on the front page of the USA Today about how the U.S. has 7 weeks before it blows up.
2) Put Call closed at 1.36 which is the 2nd highest in the past 2 years behind 5/10's 1.53 which resulted in a 2 week 150 point Naz rally.
3)10 day Put call closed at 1.14 which matches the previous 2 year high.
4) Dumb money is 29% bullish while smart money is 58%. We may see a larger spread when closing numbers are published later today. Dumb $ bullish % was above 70% 6 weeks ago when I commented about the BLT.
5)From yesterday's ST: "Put/call ratios can trend along with the market, which is why we also post a de-trended version of the indicator. That indicator, too, is at a historic extreme.
Since 1997, there have been 5 times the De-trended ratio reached this kind of extreme (8/28/98, 10/8/98, 10/12/00, 9/21/01 and 3/19/08). All were at or within a day of at least a several-week rebound.
The large number of extremes has stretched both our Intermediate-term Indicator Score and Short-term Indicator Score.
There have been 9 days since 2000 that the Intermediate-term Score was beyond 1.50, and the Short-term Score was beyond 0.65. During the next three weeks, the S&P rallied every time, averaging +5.7%.
My goal is to jump on the "buy and hold" bandwagon as I really don't want to trade any more.
ReplyDeleteIn that light, I picked up WFR at the close. More insider buying last week 15% above current prices. Historically, the stock always trades 20x its current eps run-rate. 1/3rd of the company, its Sun Edison division alone will do $1.30 in eps in 2012. Its backlog continues to build out into 2014. Book value is 23% above today's close.
As always, will have a tight stop in place.
S&P bounced today right off the 1257 level, which was the closing low on March 16. I think this is too obvious of a "bottom," and the purpose of today's bounce was simply to draw in TA newbies who hope/expect that the double bottom is in. Most likely, the 1257 level will be broken to the downside in the next couple of days.
ReplyDeleteDavid - I couldn't agree more. However, I think we have up to a week to 2 week rally to about 1,300-1,310....just long and high enough to get the dip buyers here confident that they made the right choice and to get bears scared about a March repeat. Then it drops through the 1,250 level to 1,220. Ultimately, I'm beginning to have doubts about my 1,500 call for next year. Granted anything can happen between now and then. Ultimately ultimately, I think we grind lower to 1,000 within 4-5 years even if we get up to 1,500. It's at that point that people will totally and completely hate the market and when it will be a good time to go long and stay long.
ReplyDeleteWould it be unacceptable to completely hate the market in advance? I think I'm beginning to experience that emotion already... ;)
ReplyDeleteCSCO - MACD/ADX have turned out, I'm kinda liking the way it looks (famous last words).
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=csco&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
RIMM - Longs just got reamed...
ReplyDeleteFrom Irwin Michael, one of Canada's top investment manager's:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.abcfunds.com/datav3/from_the_desk_of_irwin_michael/2011-06-16.shtml
He's a hard-core value-focused contrarian. For those who don't want to read the entire article the summary is:
In summation, the present financial environment appears to be chaotic, risky and enervating to investors. It is our belief that investors should block out the current negativity and focus on individual corporate valuations. We believe the value is there. It is our opinion that the fundamentally undervalued securities of today should do exceedingly well over the next 12-18 months.
one man's double bottom is another's inverted cup and handle. third time breaking support or resistance is usually when strong moves happen.
ReplyDelete"Tensions Between HP and Oracle Rise After Lawsuit- FOX Business Now "
ReplyDeleteSRS - Interesting how home prices and SRS have such a similar trend...
ReplyDeleteTTM - That's got to be a pretty good price from a buy and hold perspective.
ReplyDelete2nd: volatility is rising! coming into your day-trading wheel house. Faz faz fas fas faz calling your name like hot dice at the craps table. Even David is talking the VXX. I am thinking of playing futures with JB if we get 10-15 point ranges in the S+P. Miss those glory days of 2008, 2009. 200 300 dow points a day is where its at. This melt up has been boring!!!!! Casino opens 6:30 mananna be there to fade the fade of the fade if you know what I mean.
ReplyDeleteWFR - Jesse, welcome back to the un-natural world. Memc was dropped off my watch list long ago but the price/financials do look good now. The company is headquartered in a distant suburb of St. Louis and I was familiar with it while living in the environs for 43 years. WFR has been on a wild ride for many years and may be at another low point.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=WFR+Interactive#chart1:symbol=wfr;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=off;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/6/16_Jim_Sinclair.html
ReplyDeleteWhat's ur guys take on this guy?
"It is our opinion that the fundamentally undervalued securities of today should do exceedingly well over the next 12-18 months."
ReplyDeleteThat would be those gold/silver miners that were shorted the most by the hedge funds when silver was soaring, and hence their value for the price became the best ever.
Lets see, who is more trust worthy a life long used car salesman, a lifelong politician or a life long gold guy? Huummmm let me think about that. A real tough question.
ReplyDeletelet me add a Chinese companies 10K or a gold guy.
ReplyDeleteJim Sinclair has been right about PM's. His company is TRE, so he's got sell side motivation I suppose you could say.
ReplyDeleteHe also brokered the Hunt Brothers deal, he's been around the block a few times. A true gold bug, IMO.
His line is: "Sell the rhino horn, buy the fishing line."
Kendra- "A baby is born every 3 minutes, and someone dies in a car accident every 10 minutes."
ReplyDeleteMark- "Really?"
Kendra- "Yeah, one of the teenagers told me at soccer today"
I didn't argue, and now you know the real reason we have our kids involved in it.
**********************************
We go down tomorrow, today's reversal wasn't sharp enough, and it's early in the summer.
I think I'm gonna short / buy puts in AAPL again tomorrow if it opens up.
ReplyDeleteMark, I'm not good at word problems, where does Kendra's observation put commodities prices ten years from now?
ReplyDeleteI would presume higher, unless some game-changing technology(ies) were to come along...
Oh, so now you guys are gonna short now that we're no longer near the top of the channel, is that it?
ReplyDeleteYou're getting a sell signal? Well if that's the case, you'll wanna do it before the market anticipates improving news and the MACD turns up (note ADX is nearly flat) b/c RSI(7) turned up through 30 July 9th, on my chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$indu&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
CP et al. here is something to short! HRBN
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/275262-harbin-electric-loan-fraud-and-the-docs-to-prove-it
FCX - Sitting right on it's octa-bottom here...
ReplyDeleteRB - Now you've got it, short something that's obviously overpriced, like Pandora for instance. Or like you suggested, HRBN.
ReplyDeleteAnd while I'm at it, I'll just point out that I've noticed quite a few short opportunities occur as the RSI(7) is peeking somewhere above 70, especially when it turns down through 70, like it did May 4th for instance.
ReplyDeleteJPM - Essentially flat compared to June 9 price
ReplyDeleteMS - Sure looks like a buy
GS - Appears to have bottomed
XLF - Ditto, it's no longer selling off. Pretty good volume past few days, too.
XLF - Here's the pincer chart, all we need for a buy confirmation signal on this metric is for ADX to turn down.
ReplyDeleteBut wait, it gets better: RSI(7) turned up through 30 June 9th.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=xlf&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
RB - Now you've got it, short something that's obviously overpriced, like Pandora for instance. Or like you suggested, HRBN.
ReplyDeleteOR the S+P 500!
A slight correction and the doomsayers come out. This guy is kind of saying what TEAM is saying for near term prices, but with more dire consequences long term.
http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2011/06/bear-is-back-and-this-time-it-will-be.html
Okay, I'd at least want to see the 200 fail though. A lot of guys have been warning every day for two years.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Investors-Be-Wary-of-Herd-usnews-4273879902.html?x=0&.v=1
ReplyDeleteCP: yes his thoughts mean nothing. Trade what you see not bullshit. I just thought his pop and drop for the coming weeks was exactly what team said earlier.
ReplyDeleteDang 2nd. Where are you Hawaii? Its past your bedtime.
ReplyDelete"As a retirement investor, you have a few clear and simple choices. You can enter the active management fray and compete with the big dogs, you can follow the masses and fall prey to the bloodletting, or you can rise above it all by rooting your investment philosophy in proven science and long-range planning. Buy low-cost funds, embrace basic global asset allocation, and rebalance your best-performing assets with some of your worst-performing ones. In turn, you can rule your portfolio with long range and academically proven principles, and invest effectively with peace of mind."
ReplyDelete2nd never read so much bullshit in my life. Phrases that peg my bullshit meter in the red like a Steppenwolf bass line are:
"academically proven principles"
"your investment philosophy in proven science"
Only thing PROVEN is your ability to fade the spikes in FAS and FAZ. I have documentation for that!
Well yes, he does have an interesting concept and I'll definitely be looking to see if 2011 exhibits the same or similar topping pattern as 2008, so that part of it was good.
ReplyDeleteSomehow I have a feeling Bernanke has a more elaborate plan than meets the eye, so it's definitely still a wait and see.
2nd - Ahh Jeeze, when I see stuff like that I can't help but wonder if there isn't some adgenda behind it.
ReplyDeleteI wish you guys would just try reading your charts, just using RSI's gets you in and out reasonably enough to eek out some gains.
My problem with my RSI's is they're not real time, not much of anything really is for me so I've got to plan ahead as much as possible.
Aside from brief 10 year or so stints, the global economy has always been bursting at the seams about to explode. Or that's what the chicken little's have always been running around screaming about for as long as I can recall.
ReplyDeleteWhat we need is to get rid of the big banks that keep screwing everything up with their thieving schemes.
We also need to recycle our waste back into energy, at least that which can be safely converted.
Let's start running a tight ship.
DC needs to quit playing with their wieners and actually make some good decisions for once, otherwise, they should just go home.
Can someone explain how a pincer works. Not sure what I am supposed to be looking for here.
ReplyDeleteThanks
CP- Not shorting here, just sitting on my hands for now. Let's hope this pre-market strength holds.
ReplyDeleteWould like to see crude higher here with this move.
ReplyDeleteLook, I don't want to influence your trades in a negative way, and the market could be about to take a huge swan dive for all I know.
ReplyDeleteI shouldn't have said anything I guess...
BB - The pincher occurs when the MACD and ADX make a pinching pattern as illustrated in some of the charts shown above, you can follow the pattern fairly well all the way through the mid March dip on the $indu chart:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$indu&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
Basically, you'll see the dip as a pinching, note the symmetry of the ADX with MACD. Actually, I think the RSI cycling through 30 (for a buy signal) and 70 (for a sell signal) make a great (as good or better?) complementary signal.
It takes some getting used to the signal and the 60min and 15 min charts reveal more detail. I don't have these charts b/c I'm not a stockcharts subscriber.
BTW, I wonder if one of you can't easily duplicate these chart indicators on your platforms? Not that it matters really...
ReplyDeleteCP- Not at all my friend.
ReplyDeleteDAL? Yeah, I'm reaching :))
ReplyDeleteOil - I'd like to see it go up as well, somehow I get the feeling it will be unless Bernanke is gonna allow the market to crash, which would bring commodities down of course. What are the chances?
ReplyDeleteSo are traders erroneously bailing on commodities producers in anticipation of the event that may or may not materialize, and is that the right move? He with best timing wins, me thinks. The charts will guide you, we should put our heads together together on this.
I'm long GPL, a silver producer, with the expectation commodities may dip (hopefully not by much) in which case I plan to add.
DAL - Hey, anything goes in love and war. If you've got an angle and the charts are telling you to make a move, then do it.
ReplyDeleteRBY - Retesting it's recent low, wonder if it holds?
ReplyDeleteI'm going to fade the professional gap, ES and TF....quad witching will make today extra whippy
ReplyDeletegood luck traders
closing out ES and TF shorts with news pending. 61% of the time fading openning gaps like the one we had today results in a positive ROI.....nice to get some "black" in the futures acct for a change
ReplyDeleteI see Cara's been loading up on PM producers BTW...
ReplyDeletewhat do you think the breakup value is for RIMM?
ReplyDeleteJB- Less than NOKers :)
ReplyDeleteWhy do these IPO ceo's go on CNBC? Don't they watch?
ReplyDeleteLOL.....it is interesting to see how hard it is for high tech monopolies (rimm, msft, etc) to grow their biz outside of the area they dominate
ReplyDeleteIPO CEO's can't resist TV...they suffer from egoes maximus
ReplyDeleteLong RIMM for a trade. Long at $29.2; stop at $28.8
ReplyDeletesentiment came in weaker than expected
ReplyDeleteLEI saved the day so far.
ReplyDeleteLEI +.08 vs cons of .03...so more mixed data
ReplyDeletewe get above 74.50 I will go long ES and w/a target of 77.50
ReplyDeleteSCREW IT sold those and went long SPY $129 puts expiring today...again for a trade. AAPL is rolling over which is bad for mkt
ReplyDeletethe trouble today will be the NQ, really lagging and aapl is weak (but getting a bit better)
ReplyDeletelong SPY puts at 1.23; tight leash
ReplyDeleteyes tof - NQ and aapl will pressure the whole market today. I can see a down 150 on the dow today...CRAP
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of high oil, what happens when the US admits there's not enough money remaining to continue policing the Middle East?
ReplyDeleteBOOM!, me thinks.
And I thought I heard that ethanol subsidies were just cut, but the blurb was just that, a blurb without detail and I haven't followed up. Sometimes unfortunately I hear only what I want to hear....
CP - the senate canned the subsidies but now it goes to the house so it's not a done deal.
ReplyDeleteoil sands, natty, alt energy will fill the crude gap over time....we just won't get there until we hit max pain, as always
short NQ 07.75
ReplyDeleteRIMM/GOOG/AAPL all down? So who is getting the extra phone sales....Could it be NOKer!!
ReplyDeleteflat at even, cup of coffee for Infinity..lost the doodad
ReplyDeleteMark - who is going to buy NOK msft or orcl?
ReplyDeleteJB- P will. Look ahead man!
ReplyDeleteoh man that's freakin' funny.....how soon before P is a sub $5 stock?
ReplyDeletedamn! now the NQ gives it up
ReplyDeleteI just left an entire two weeks profit on the table, f*ck
ReplyDeleteYou still in XHB bro?
ReplyDelete$INDU - Note how MACD and ADV on this chart have turned outward. That's the signal longs are looking for.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$indu&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
Add to that RSI(7) came up through 30 on the 9th, and the case for a bottom is strengthened.
Now what we need to see is the RSI/ADX continue to diverge symmetrically, or at least flatten out. If they were to flatten out, then $indu would be anticipated to move sideways.
Yes Mark still holding XHB. Target >$19
ReplyDeletePKX - Lookie there, PKX retested it's low from last November and held.
ReplyDeleteThis sure is a tough market to get long, I can hear and feel the shorts hyperventilating.
XHB - Here's the chart for that one:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=xhb&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
closed SPY puts at $1.33 my "theory" is wrong :(
ReplyDeleteJB - "oil sands, natty, alt energy will fill the crude gap over time."
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking bio-waste plays a big role, myself. Keeping an eye on WM.
Short NFLX at $246.5
ReplyDeleteCP - ya, bio-waste, ocean power, there are tons are really interesting potential options to crude
ReplyDeleteStopped out of the NFLX short at 248.2...sitting on hands now
ReplyDeleteQE2.F - http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-Silver-Reports-1st-Quarter-bw-2125869405.html?x=0&.v=1
ReplyDeleteHopped back into NFLX short at $249.2
ReplyDeleteClosed NFLX short at $248.8
ReplyDeleteshort ES 1268 for scalp. CP when do you sleep.
ReplyDeleteout at 65.50. This mini trading is easy :)
ReplyDeleteES buy stop at 1266. just filled
ReplyDeleteOil - Actually, lower oil prices is miner positive.
ReplyDeletestopped at 64.75. Also had .25 slippage on my entry. ES trading sucks!
ReplyDeleteRB - Slept from 02:30 till 08:30, that's just over 6 hours by my math. ;)
ReplyDeleteJust bought 5 more DB July $55 puts for $1.45 -- judging by its chart, I think it is destined to break the March low of $55 soon...
ReplyDeleteWhat a F en moron. I actually sold 1 more contract then i had and didn't realize it. So i was short 1 contract. I go and take a shower and eat breakfast. Lah de dah lah de dah. Lucky I checked before leaving. Actually got lucky and got out with a couple ticks in my favor, but what a douche.
ReplyDeleteI just looked at the CADC chart -- it is already at $1.60 -- amazing! I think I'll go borrow some more money from my credit card to buy this one. Or should I buy SORL, which is at $3.70???
ReplyDeleteWNR - So as the Brent:WTIC spread narrows, WNR looses their competitive edge, assuming I understand that dynamic correctly.
ReplyDeleteDavid, I have been thinking of shorting a German bank also. The daily chart pattern could be interpreted two ways. A bullish double bottom, Or a bearish inverted cup and handle. 60 is obvious line in the sand.
ReplyDeleteSORL/DADC - I don't know David, I kinda expect the Chinese to just say FU! and walk away. There's nothing I know of that's stopping them from doing that, unless maybe I've overlooked something...
ReplyDeleteSORL/CADC - Okay, this particular indicator seems to point to SORL as being the better choice based upon P&F price objective:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=sorl,PLTADANRBO[PA][D20110616][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=cadc,PLTADANRBO[PA][D20110616][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G
"I have been thinking of shorting a German bank also."
ReplyDeleteWunderbar! Does anybody really like Germany? Who? ;)
WNR the story is they get OIL at a discount because there is no pipeline to the facility that they get their oil yet. They are at the spigot where storage is at capacity.So they buy the overflow at a significant discount.
ReplyDelete"I kinda expect the Chinese to just say FU! and walk away."
ReplyDeleteYou mean they can just dissolve the company and run away with the investor's money???
So what did Bernanke just have to say on C-span? Anybody happen to catch it?
ReplyDelete"they can just dissolve the company and run away with the investor's money???"
ReplyDeleteYes David, that's precisely my summation of what's been happening.
Yoku is running away with some shorts money today.
ReplyDeleteLong ES at 67.00
ReplyDeleteWNR - Excess oil, huh? Those would be tarsands oil from Canada, or whale oil from Chesapeake bay? Excess oil from the Middle East?
ReplyDeleteI've read that Canadian producers have been getting the shaft b/c they can't get they're trapped geologically, is WNR the beneficiary?
Don't hold back if you know something. I'm trying to learn, cause obviously I need to.
"Western Refining is an independent oil refiner and marketer headquartered in El Paso, Texas. The company operates primarily in the Southwestern and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States"
closed at 69.00
ReplyDeleteMOre slippage! JB what method do you use to enter orders.
ReplyDeleteBEXP - Looks like the bears almost have BEXP by the go-nads. If Russia attacked Turkey from the rear, would Greece help?
ReplyDeleteNothing against Russians of course, I like friendly people.
ReplyDeleteT3D- Give me a buck off WPRT here, or 2-3 weeks in time and it's all clear.
ReplyDeleteCREE will be a buy some year.
ReplyDeleteTOF- WTF you messing with NFLX for?
ReplyDelete"Yes David, that's precisely my summation of what's been happening."
ReplyDeleteCan you name a few Chinese companies that have dissolved themselves?
CP Yes OIL surplus! This whole run up in oil since egypt is just a fear premium. I don't know right to the minute but before memorial day the US was swimming in OIL. I suspect we still are due to demand destruction from higher prices.Of coarse demand destruction would hurt WNR no matter how cheap they get their oil since you have to sell it. That is razor edge of the crack spread that refiners have to walk. They are really hard to trade because there are times they will trade with price of oil and then trade against the price of oil. In addition to hedge book nonsense and overall price of gas.Logic will get you killed trading refiners. Many times up is down.
ReplyDeletehttp://community.nasdaq.com/News/2011-03/wti-will-be-90-in-a-month-as-theres-no-more-storage-at-cushing.aspx?storyid=68883&&
Ah crap. Why is TRX on the horn.
ReplyDeleteTRX...You guys first.
ReplyDeleteShort ES at 66.00. After wrongly going long. My broker must love me.
ReplyDeleteRB- XLE just broke S1 for the first time today. You should be all right.
ReplyDeleteI have two Chase Freedom Visa credit cards, and both of them recently sent me blank checks with a 2% upfront fee and a 0% APR until 8/2012. I am pretty sure I can make more than 2% in the stock market over the next year. There is a limit of $5000 when writing each of these checks to myself, and so I have just deposited $10K total to my bank account. In a few days I should have the funds to buy CADC (which I think is an expiration-free call option at this point) or better yet some VXX puts when S&P drops to 1220 next week.
ReplyDeleteAdding to short at 63
ReplyDeleteHuge volume in SPY. Did I miss something?
ReplyDeleteRB - What you said about refiners is so true. I got killed by WNR in June 2009. Bought low at $8.17 but it kept going lower. Couldn't hang on.
ReplyDeleteBTW, WNR owns gas stations/convenience stores also. Might say the are an integrated refiner. I will not touch them now.
GOOG?? Must have something to do with RIMM.
ReplyDeletegrassosteve Steve Grasso
ReplyDeleteitaly headline spooked market
http://twitter.com/#!/GrassoSteve
I figured -- why wait? So I just transferred a little money to ETrade, and since they allow to use that money immediately, I placed a buy limit order for 1000 shares of CADC at the bid of $1.57, got 200 shares filled, and the bid moved up to $1.58.
ReplyDeleteGot the rest of the order filled at $1.57. So if CP is right and CADC can indeed go to 0, then I basically bought a real call option now, with a downside potential of 100% and an upside potential of many X.
ReplyDeleteES off at BE 64.50. Dang should not of tried to hit a homerun on the first day of mini trading.
ReplyDeleteI think we go up here to minimize the put sellers losses going into experation
Thanks Kyle.
ReplyDeleteSomething just happened now -- both ECU and CADC just got a "fishing line." The traders are bailing out of my positions... :)
ReplyDeleteDavid - "Can you name a few Chinese companies that have dissolved themselves?"
ReplyDeleteMy short list of examples consists of those halted and/or delisted. It might be wise to compare those to the overall market to try getting a feel for the precentages, but my impression right or wrong is Chinese equities are experiencing a "tough period" currently which may be indicative of the future.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
http://www.streetinsider.com/Trading+Halts/List+of+Halted+Chinese+Stocks+Continues+to+Grow+(CCME)+(CAGC)+(SDTH)+(NEOC)+(CDM)/6380271.html
RINO
ReplyDelete"fishing line" Never heard that before. That is funny,even though i feel your pain.:)
ReplyDelete3:30 pm : Stocks have slipped toward session lows in response to headlines that suggest analysts at Moody's have put Italy's debt rating on review for possible downgrade. The announcement, which follows news of efforts to shore up Greece's finances, offers a blunt reminder of the precarious fiscal conditions that exist among countries in the eurozone periphery.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/update
"before memorial day the US was swimming in OIL."
ReplyDeleteYes, I'm aware of this through the grapevine.
I'm just interested in something I caught from a professional oil floortrader when he mentioned the spread between Brent and WTIC being good for refiners.
I don't know about how or where the WTIC crude oil gets to the Chesapeake bay, but I can imagine some pretty large ships having access to WNR's loading docks here, and if WNR was shipping refined product overseas that might improve their bottom line.
I'm sitting right here beside one of the largest harbors in the world and it's amazing to see the size of these ships coming and going all day long. I have no idea of what's going where and I've seen loaded ships coming in, not close enough to really know if they leave loaded or not though.
I think WNR's Chesapeake refinery is WTIC configured, not Brent configured. So if WTIC is competitive to Brent, I guess WNR receives a pile of new orders from Europe, etc. (regions that are Brent configured). This leads to the earlier Brent/WTIC spread comment and is perhaps one dynamic that makes trading WNR a bit mysterious?
Yes, these are theories at the moment, but I don't stop thinking it over because I'm too confused or due to lack of sleep or something.
cp -- Ur not drinking enough....
ReplyDeleteGMO- CP, was their something in the filling I missed?
ReplyDeleteI've been up since 3:00...and do need a drink!
ReplyDeleteSinclair's advice on gold: "Sell the rhino horn, buy the fishing line"
ReplyDeletewell it sure feels like bulls have defended the march lows...i still think we go to 1,300-1,310 at which point its time to get short if ur a trader.
ReplyDeleteCP. Full disclosure. i have a hard on for WNR. last November I caught the $7.00 Breakout perfectly and rode it to $10.00. I sold at 9.80 or something. Boy i thought i was a hero. Then WNR goes parabolic and reaches 18 with in a couple of months, so it is on my watch list to remind me of all my short comings, constantly. I doubt i will ever buy it again because I owned it so much "cheaper" back then. I really need to get over the psychological hang up if I ever want to be a decent trader. You know what i am just going to buy 100 shares right now.WTF
ReplyDeleteIs there an after hours on Friday?
ReplyDeleteGMO - I don't know Mark, I got tired of trying to guess where they were taking it next, but the trend has been down for a long while now and some day I might add some capital back to the position depending on how low it goes and circumstances of the broad market, etc..
ReplyDeleteRB - I guess you caught the point I'm pondering concerning the Brent spread, I was also trying to get into WNR when WTIC was priced in the $20's, figuring the share price should go up but every time WTIC would drop a little, so too would WNR, even though pump prices were increasing, LOL!
ReplyDeleteGreat Panther Silver Limited Or(AMEX: GPL )
ReplyDeleteAfter Hours: 3.22 0.19 (+6.27%) 4:25PM EDT
WNR Filled at 15.12. We will call it psychological therapy.
ReplyDeleteYes, You would think that if crude goes down and gas stays at the same price that would be positive for refiners and the opposite would be negative. The trouble is a refiner usually does not pay spot, but has hedge contracts. So if they hedge at 100 and oil drops to 90 traders will look at this as a negative because they are paying a premium and sell them off. When I was trading refiners and price would go against me i would complain about some conspiracy against me which is laughable. There is so many moving parts there is an underlying logic to price movements.The pro's know what's going on. It is just impossible to keep track of all these "moving parts being a dude on a computer.
"Great Panther Silver Limited Or(AMEX: GPL )
ReplyDeleteAfter Hours: 3.22 0.19 (+6.27%) 4:25PM EDT"
Interesting... I thought that what happened to ECU.TO at the close was an accident, but maybe it wasn't!
Well, even if what happened to ECU.TO at the close was an accident (I think someone just rushed to buy it at the close and placed a market order, which was "smartly" filled by computers at $0.95), it still resulted in a new high on the daily chart, which should encourage more buying from the TA crowd...
ReplyDeleteWNR - Yep, there are quite a few moving parts no doubt. A quadratic expression.
ReplyDeleteECU - Good work David! May the market gods smile brightly upon your portfolio. ;)
PMI - Another call option set to expire worthless.
ReplyDeleteECU.TO had spikes at the end of the day on Monday, Wednesday and Friday. It definitely looks like it is being accumulated prior to it releasing the drill results for the high-grade veins they are drilling now.
ReplyDeleteDavid - Do you know ECU's cost of silver production yet? GPL's has risen to around $10/oz this quarter.
ReplyDeleteSite has list of 10 stocks over 200MA for over 500 trading days, including some not so expected:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/06/bespoke-with-apple-aapl-gone-these.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+FundMyMutualFund+%28Fund+my+Mutual+Fund%29
Interesting list Illini. I had about 1/3 right.
ReplyDeleteBet you didn't have Hormel or Edwards!
ReplyDeleteCREE...
ReplyDeleteVantagePoint Capital Partners, the Silicon Valley investor that helped bring Tesla Motors Inc public, expects prices for LEDs to “plummet” within three years as competition intensifies to satisfy surging demand for energy-efficient lights.
Prices for LEDs may fall 90 percent by 2015, Alan Salzman, chief executive officer of the San Bruno, California-based venture capital company, said in an interview.
Incandescent bulbs are being phased out in Europe. In the US, efficiency policies will eliminate the 100-watt bulb next year. LED makers stand to gain a bigger share of the US$40 billion a year global lighting market. Bulb companies including General Electric Co and Koninklijke Philips Electronics NV are producing LEDs, and Salzman said start-ups that are developing low-cost LEDs will take a slice of the market.
“We’re just at the beginning of the LED phase,” Salzman said. “There’s very little quality product yet even on the shelves.”
VantagePoint has invested about US$750 million in 32 clean technology companies. Those include four that make LED products: Switch Bulb Co, Bridgelux Inc, Huga Optotech Inc and Glo AB.
Salzman said that within five years the use of LEDs for general lighting purposes could grow to more than 50 percent of the market from less than 1 percent today, adding that the commercial market that could take more time to develop.
“All consumer stuff will go,” Salzman said. “Commercial, where you have the fluorescent tubes — that will take a little longer. I think it’s going to be one of the fastest clean-tech sectors to flip.”
MEMC - " ..."a Ben Graham textbook example of a buying opportunity." ? :
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/274616-memc-electronic-materials-it-may-be-time-to-start-accumulating?source=yahoo
No position, yet. As noted it is wild, as can be seen in Beta.
RBY broke 4 bucks for the first time in 7 months today.
ReplyDeleteThe surprises on the list to me are LTD and EP since I probably owned them 500 days ago. They have both more than doubled since i have owned them. Really how can EP double being in the hated Nat gas space?
ReplyDeleteHas anyone at CC commented on RBY?
ReplyDeleteCREE - Going to be facing some competition? I guess that probably means someone somewhere is ramping up production and they're in turn busily acquiring the equipment necessary to go into production.
ReplyDeleteWonder how VECO, an LED manufacturing equipment supplier, is doing? Wonder who besides VECO specializes in LED manufacturing equipment?