I've been on kid care duty today and not very mobile because I still can't post on my new laptop. I know I am missing something but my otherwise trustworthy Google password won't let me in to Blogspot.
CB - Okay, so just to let you know and assuming I have cash ready to deploy, I'm going to buy some RBY the very next time the price falls below $4 on no news... ;)
"My guess is there's no chance in hell I hold til then. I'm not the buy and hold type."
TOF, I haven't been such a type either. What I think will help me greatly to hold on to my gains for at least a year is the realization that if I sell before 1 year, then I'll have to share a big chunk of my gains with the IRS. Maybe this thought will give you the strength to hold on to your MITK position for at least a year...
David said, "I, of course, cannot do it, since I have a bet with 2nd_ave and T3d about ECU closing above $2.25 before the end of 2012, and I want to get there with ALL my 200K shares intact."
David, just for the record, as for me you do not need to be holding ECU as far as I'm concerned and are free to sell or hold as you see fit. Our bet is strictly on a close above $2.25. You need to check with 2nd on if your holding is a condition of your bet with him.
Very busy and have very little time to blog, but try to check in occasionally. T3d
Ouch! I bought ZAGG today at 3:59 they announce a buy out of their rival at 4:00 PM. WTF. Do buyers always go down? Don't answer I know. Here is what i will do---- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9iW7JuJkZ8
Holy S I bought ZAGG for $2.3 and sold it for I think $2.5 last year. I didn't realize this thing is a $12 stock. I guess I'll drink more beer on that mistake.
Chicken, sometimes gold stocks trade with Gold and sometimes they trade with the market.
Lately, they've been trading down with the market even though the price of Gold is hanging in well, but yesterday they traded back up with the general market.
This is why bc has been able to acquire a bunch of gold juniors at a discount.
Likely a safe trade here would be long GDX and short GLD as this gap should shrink. Problem is, these gaps can go a long way and a long time, so getting the timing right on these is very hard.
Lone Pine Energy - did some reading on this one (from the "Newborn Energy Companies" article - can't remember who posted). Only 20% of the equity is being sold and the other 80% will either be sold or distributed to Forest Oil shareholders around October, so that would likely be a time where you will see the shares sold hard and a good time to buy. Plus, will have a couple of quarterly reports to read through by then.
Don Coxe coming out with a Global Agribusiness Fund this week.
He is the BMO strategist who was early in recognizing the commodity boom and is still very bullish on commodities.
He previously created the Coxe Commodity Fund pretty much at the height of the commodity peak in the summer of 2008 and proceeded to fall by over half in the next 3 months after that. Wonder if this signals a peak in the Ag market as well. Ag stocks have been one of the best performing "industries" this year already.
I tell ya what...NLS looks like a MAJOR buy here. II think this stock actually has more upside than my beloved MITK thanks in large part to the recent share drop.
Here is my thinking: The company has now been profitable for 2 straight quarters, marking what looks like a turnaround after many years of losses. The reason the stock tanked so hard is the company that came in to turn around the company, Sherborne Investors, gave up the CEO role to a new CEO and was forced to distribute its shares in NLS to its shareholders, who most likely dumped them.
The fact of the matter is, though, the company is in better shape than it has been in a while. They have $12 Million in net cash (versus mkt cap of $50 Million) and reported $.04 and $.06 in EPS the last 2 quarters. q2 is always it's weakest quarter so I expect them to post losses this quarter. But if the turnaround is intact and they can keep growing revenues thanks in part to their Treadclimber product increasing sales, then with the lower cost structure they have in place I think this could be a HUGE winner. I think it could ultimately run up to the high single digits.
It's crazy that after the turnaround that they have put in place, the stock is down 50% from recent highs. I think this is a big short term mistake by investors and that this could be an awesome buying opportunity. In fact, I decided to buy 16k shares at $1.69 right at the open.
BB - "This is why bc has been able to acquire a bunch of gold juniors at a discount."
Yeah, I guess he noticed the same thing I did except I didn't trust the chart enough to scoop up a full load at the bottom.
But hey, there are some gaps up that need to fill, so maybe I'll be able to accumulate a few more shares.
I'm not sure why PM miners were oversold, perhaps they were following the broad market but I think that correlation could break down if demand for PM's remains strong like I think it will.
It's kinda amazing that so many people would want hunks of metal, but the U$D and Euro have just been so unstable I guess folks are adding a bit of metal to their portfolios.
Anyway, looks like equities are still struggling with technical resistance this morning...
Greece - Boy the banksters really did a number on that country, sucked so much wealth out the country could collapse. If I were them, I'd want out of the Eurozone just as soon as the euro authorities repair the damage and make them whole again.
Raising the retirement age (AARP): Just think how much money the government wouldn't have to pay if the retirement age were raised to 80 years, and by then retirees would have saved enough on their own for one heck of a golden year of retirement!
Just drink beer! All my worries for zagg were for not. When you have a screen protector monopoly you have pricing power! Plus a 60% short interest doesn't hurt.
IMHO The double bottom has hit in GPL With May low and June low. Putting in a nice J Lo bottom pattern. Cup-handle-blastoff with a little help from Ben and his printing presses. Is GPL a new IPO my chart does not go very far back. i thought i shorted this puppy last year? Is there a plain ole panther gold mining company?
"a little help from Ben and his printing presses."
Long overdue IMO, he should've been cranking up the Heidelberg as soon as he realized housing was out of control. My first sniff came with stagnant gasoline prices in what seemed like an almost parabolic economy. Then Ben raised rates and pulled the wool out from under all those ARM mortgages, making it impossible for all the borderline folks to make payments.
In fact, he should've cranked up the presses long before raising rates.
But everything was Okay, and even as late as the presidential elections they pretended not to have a clue something was wrong.
RB - GPL - "IMHO The double bottom has hit in GPL With May low and June low."
Agreed, and based upon the geometry of the formation, the DB target is $4.36, yielding a gain on my position of nearly 43% assuming the target is reached...
Certainly would be cause for a couple of cold ones. ;)
One particularly interesting line is "They note that metal premiums - what’s paid above the publicly traded price for physical metal - in Europe remain strong. Copper premiums in particular have been surging since early March. "
So Europe appears to have more demand than supply even with their crisis and prices staying above $4.00.
Metals: Yep, seems like we never know what's around the corner anymore. Not to throw cold water on anyone's party but does such enthusiastic news beg for some small opposing degree of buffer?
"The situation is made more aggravating for metal consumers because supply has far outweighed demand for most of the last decade, and there is more than 4.5 million metric tons of surplus metal stored in LME’s warehouse system."
I am going on vacation today until July 19: Florida, Moscow, Prague, Norway. I decided not to take my laptop with me, so as to prevent myself from selling ECU if it surges to $2 after releasing the drill results from the high-grade sulphide zone. Kinda like 2nd_ave's solitary confinement. So good luck to you all during this month -- hopefully the market doesn't tank while I am away and we all see our portfolios grow.
My last few words of wisdom: do research on stocks MPO, RFE, and RAM. I spoke to a friend of mine from Wall Street yesterday, who specializes in oil companies, and he said that there are some AMAZING opportunities right now in the micro-cap oil exploration sector because of some silly mispricing. As some of his best ideas, he mentioned the 3 tickers above. For MPO in particular, he said that it trades now basically for the cash value the company holds and has almost NO premium for the diverse portfolio of land they are drilling now. Now, THAT's silly. Mark, maybe you can take a look at them and ask your oil guy as well.
Mark funny you have said that. Since i started trading futures I have bought 5 , 2 and 1 share of stock because I can't remember to change the share amount.My broker loves me.
I did only buy 100 shares of WNR on my therapy trade that is up 16 % since last Friday. Could of, should of, would of?
Well WNR was upgraded today with a 24 price target. I don't understand what all that price target bullshit means. $24 in a week, a month, a year, ten years! Anyway I will hold WNR for at least one more day:). By the way the psch therapy is to get over the concept that a stock some how remembers at what price I owned before. Basically saying it is OK to CHASE A STOCK up. Buy high, sell higher IBD bull shit. WNR is not expensive because I owned at 7.00 and ZAGG is not expensive since Team owned it at 2.00. On second thought Zagg is expensive. I will look to short if I can ID a euphoric spike that knocks the shorts out and then look out below.
"David MPO has a new CFO and CEO in the last year in the addition to new board members. Raises red flags for me."
Exactly. And it also raised the red flag for the other traders. THAT's why we can buy MPO at such a discount now. However, my friend met their CEO and he said that everything is OK, and MPO is a GREAT value now.
FD: I have no positions in MPO, RFE or RAM, since all my money is invested in ECUXF. :)
20+ year base in the $0.90 - $1.50, then breakout starting in 2004 into the $4.00 range. What changed in 2004 - China started becoming a massive importer of copper as it modernized it's economy.
I think as this point we've reached a new trading range and will be generally in the $4.00 - $4.50 range for several years (with the occasional spike). I can't see it going to $8.00 as people would just substitute like they did in the 1970's when copper got expensive (Seen any of those houses from that period with aluminum wiring - what a pain!). I don't think it will drop much other as several big mines are scheduled to close and it is difficult to get new mines going now with the costs / environment / politics, etc. (just ask Taseko).
So I think your best investment now is a good copper company with growing production and strong reserves - if dopper moves up, you have leverage, if it moves down, you've got some protection and if it stays flat, the growth of the company will drive your profits.
RAM Energy - $1.36 - Long term chart shows they really got hit mid-2008 and have not recovered much. Oklahoma play: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/RAM-Energy-Resources-bw-1867424162.html?x=0&.v=1
I've been on kid care duty today and not very mobile because I still can't post on my new laptop. I know I am missing something but my otherwise trustworthy Google password won't let me in to Blogspot.
ReplyDeleteWell, maybe longs can fire the Grecian bailout booster propellant, but the dow is bumping into important resistance levels here:
ReplyDeletehttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8bXXHp4tWpc/TgEhFmKcO3I/AAAAAAAAFK8/kgnc89O0Rdg/s1600/sc-2.png
Buy the rumor sell the news, or break on through to the other side in our new and improved Trojan horse?
illini - Windows is the most wonderful thing in the world. Isn't there a workaround, such as assuming a new identity?
ReplyDeleteSome names we follow going in/out in rebalancing Friday...
ReplyDeleteIN:
COOL
BCON
WIFI
MDW
ROYL
ACPW
EMKR
FTK
GLUU
HDY
LNKD
VGZ
ZIP
OUT:
FTWR
ESLR
RAM
Why I provide such valuable content for free is beyond me.
CP - Yes, I should sign up as Illini Ray as I have done on another place or two (none of them active like this place).
ReplyDeleteCA. state controller pulls legislators paychecks calling 'balanced' budget passed 'bullshit'.
ReplyDeleteMark fuzzy math. How can it be the Russel 2k when you bring in 13 and only lose three? Is it now going to be called the Russel 2010.
ReplyDeleteRD- Those are just the ones we follow. There's probably 200 moving in/out. It's for the 3000 and micro cap fund.
ReplyDeleteOr RB.
ReplyDeleteOR JB, CB, CP....
ReplyDeleteFunny how when you think something is completely "flushed" it turns out that was the bottom. The sad thing is I don't think that is unusual at all.
ReplyDeleteCB- Been thinking about you a lot. How have you managed this trade?
ReplyDeleteCB - Okay, so just to let you know and assuming I have cash ready to deploy, I'm going to buy some RBY the very next time the price falls below $4 on no news... ;)
ReplyDeleteRBY - I thought that sucker was headed for $3.03, and Mark wanted to buy it....
ReplyDeleteNow I'm kinda wondering why gold miners bottomed the day before Bernanke's FED meeting appearance...
ReplyDelete"My guess is there's no chance in hell I hold til then. I'm not the buy and hold type."
ReplyDeleteTOF, I haven't been such a type either. What I think will help me greatly to hold on to my gains for at least a year is the realization that if I sell before 1 year, then I'll have to share a big chunk of my gains with the IRS. Maybe this thought will give you the strength to hold on to your MITK position for at least a year...
David said, "I, of course, cannot do it, since I have a bet with 2nd_ave and T3d about ECU closing above $2.25 before the end of 2012, and I want to get there with ALL my 200K shares intact."
ReplyDeleteDavid, just for the record, as for me you do not need to be holding ECU as far as I'm concerned and are free to sell or hold as you see fit. Our bet is strictly on a close above $2.25. You need to check with 2nd on if your holding is a condition of your bet with him.
Very busy and have very little time to blog, but try to check in occasionally. T3d
Ouch! I bought ZAGG today at 3:59 they announce a buy out of their rival at 4:00 PM. WTF. Do buyers always go down? Don't answer I know. Here is what i will do----
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9iW7JuJkZ8
Holy S I bought ZAGG for $2.3 and sold it for I think $2.5 last year. I didn't realize this thing is a $12 stock. I guess I'll drink more beer on that mistake.
ReplyDeleteChicken, sometimes gold stocks trade with Gold and sometimes they trade with the market.
ReplyDeleteLately, they've been trading down with the market even though the price of Gold is hanging in well, but yesterday they traded back up with the general market.
This is why bc has been able to acquire a bunch of gold juniors at a discount.
Likely a safe trade here would be long GDX and short GLD as this gap should shrink. Problem is, these gaps can go a long way and a long time, so getting the timing right on these is very hard.
Lone Pine Energy - did some reading on this one (from the "Newborn Energy Companies" article - can't remember who posted). Only 20% of the equity is being sold and the other 80% will either be sold or distributed to Forest Oil shareholders around October, so that would likely be a time where you will see the shares sold hard and a good time to buy. Plus, will have a couple of quarterly reports to read through by then.
ReplyDeleteDon Coxe coming out with a Global Agribusiness Fund this week.
ReplyDeleteHe is the BMO strategist who was early in recognizing the commodity boom and is still very bullish on commodities.
He previously created the Coxe Commodity Fund pretty much at the height of the commodity peak in the summer of 2008 and proceeded to fall by over half in the next 3 months after that. Wonder if this signals a peak in the Ag market as well. Ag stocks have been one of the best performing "industries" this year already.
RBY - Look at that sucker fly! I'll be a monkey's uncle...
ReplyDeleteBB - I've listened to Coxe's conferences in the past, and found his reasoning based on fundamentals quite sound.
ReplyDeleteLooking for a GDX pairs trade, I had considered EUO, or UUP.
I tell ya what...NLS looks like a MAJOR buy here. II think this stock actually has more upside than my beloved MITK thanks in large part to the recent share drop.
ReplyDeleteHere is my thinking:
The company has now been profitable for 2 straight quarters, marking what looks like a turnaround after many years of losses. The reason the stock tanked so hard is the company that came in to turn around the company, Sherborne Investors, gave up the CEO role to a new CEO and was forced to distribute its shares in NLS to its shareholders, who most likely dumped them.
The fact of the matter is, though, the company is in better shape than it has been in a while. They have $12 Million in net cash (versus mkt cap of $50 Million) and reported $.04 and $.06 in EPS the last 2 quarters. q2 is always it's weakest quarter so I expect them to post losses this quarter. But if the turnaround is intact and they can keep growing revenues thanks in part to their Treadclimber product increasing sales, then with the lower cost structure they have in place I think this could be a HUGE winner. I think it could ultimately run up to the high single digits.
It's crazy that after the turnaround that they have put in place, the stock is down 50% from recent highs. I think this is a big short term mistake by investors and that this could be an awesome buying opportunity. In fact, I decided to buy 16k shares at $1.69 right at the open.
BB - "This is why bc has been able to acquire a bunch of gold juniors at a discount."
ReplyDeleteYeah, I guess he noticed the same thing I did except I didn't trust the chart enough to scoop up a full load at the bottom.
But hey, there are some gaps up that need to fill, so maybe I'll be able to accumulate a few more shares.
I'm not sure why PM miners were oversold, perhaps they were following the broad market but I think that correlation could break down if demand for PM's remains strong like I think it will.
It's kinda amazing that so many people would want hunks of metal, but the U$D and Euro have just been so unstable I guess folks are adding a bit of metal to their portfolios.
Anyway, looks like equities are still struggling with technical resistance this morning...
TOF- Why is NLS deficient in listing requirements on Nasdaq? Share price?
ReplyDeleteNLS - Has formed a tight pincher, but the buy signal confirmation isn't quite there yet(almost):
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=nls&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
This may be a good one, at first glance I thought the chart was eerily similar to CSCO's chart.
Sadly, I kinda think the broad direction is down unless/until Ben announces further FED action...
SVM - $9.38 is a resistance level from Feb, easy to spot on the chart. The 38.2% retrace is $11.08
ReplyDeleteGreece - Boy the banksters really did a number on that country, sucked so much wealth out the country could collapse. If I were them, I'd want out of the Eurozone just as soon as the euro authorities repair the damage and make them whole again.
ReplyDeleteRaising the retirement age (AARP): Just think how much money the government wouldn't have to pay if the retirement age were raised to 80 years, and by then retirees would have saved enough on their own for one heck of a golden year of retirement!
ReplyDeleteJust drink beer! All my worries for zagg were for not. When you have a screen protector monopoly you have pricing power! Plus a 60% short interest doesn't hurt.
ReplyDeletePAL - 10:50 Up Volume
ReplyDeleteRB - I'll be sure to have a few cold ones once GPL has reached it's double bottom target, you can be sure!
ReplyDeleteIMHO The double bottom has hit in GPL With May low and June low. Putting in a nice J Lo bottom pattern. Cup-handle-blastoff with a little help from Ben and his printing presses. Is GPL a new IPO my chart does not go very far back. i thought i shorted this puppy last year? Is there a plain ole panther gold mining company?
ReplyDeleteMark - The exchange NLS is on has a min mkt cap requirement of $50 Million, which they are just barely above right now.
ReplyDeletePAL - The +DI turned up from under 10, it couldn't stay there forever:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=pal&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
That kinda reminds me of the GNK chart a little:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=gnk&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
GPL - Yes, it was listed recently in the US but it's been around for a while in Canada.
ReplyDeleteNow I see it's been added onto the Russell Index:
Reconstitution additions & deletions
As of June 17, 2011
GREAT PANTHER SILVER LTD Canada Materials & Processing
http://www.russell.com/indexes/tools-resources/reconstitution/reconstitution-changes.asp
"a little help from Ben and his printing presses."
ReplyDeleteLong overdue IMO, he should've been cranking up the Heidelberg as soon as he realized housing was out of control. My first sniff came with stagnant gasoline prices in what seemed like an almost parabolic economy. Then Ben raised rates and pulled the wool out from under all those ARM mortgages, making it impossible for all the borderline folks to make payments.
In fact, he should've cranked up the presses long before raising rates.
But everything was Okay, and even as late as the presidential elections they pretended not to have a clue something was wrong.
In fact, I bet Ben wishes he hadn't raised rates, b/c now it looks like he's gonna have to cap them.
ReplyDeleteI did not know it was FED day. I guess it doesn't matter the only thing that counts is the greek economy right?
ReplyDeleteRB - GPL - "IMHO The double bottom has hit in GPL With May low and June low."
ReplyDeleteAgreed, and based upon the geometry of the formation, the DB target is $4.36, yielding a gain on my position of nearly 43% assuming the target is reached...
Certainly would be cause for a couple of cold ones. ;)
Are you using measured move or FIBs to come up with your price target.
ReplyDeleteIn order to hedge my recent gains a little more, I just bought 4 more puts on DB, this time July $60 for $2.50 each.
ReplyDeleteRB - The action I'm counting on involves formation completion, primarily the DB concept as opposed to precise values.
ReplyDelete"Close enough for government work" is fine by me.
Out Zagg Plus $2.10.
ReplyDeleteZAGG - Nice trade RB, I've never been able to grasp the MOMO concept, doesn't fit the round hole in my head! ;)
ReplyDeleteCP That was complete and absolute luck. It was a news related squeeze. It didn't matter what the chart looked like that puppy was going to pop.
ReplyDeleteMay have sold too early. Knocking on $15. Feel sorry for the shorts.
ReplyDeleteAfghanistan occupiers go home, we don't want your $2B/wk!
ReplyDeleteHey, why aren't we investing some of that $2B/wk on our "infrastructure projects" and "jobs creation" programs?
ReplyDeleteHow can you help someone else if you can't even help yourself??? And what is this damn Democracy at the end of a gun stuff, anyway???? WTF, Over!
IDAHO Flooding - "Agricultural disaster"
ReplyDeleteJJG - Starting to look just like the PM miner chart did several weeks ago...
ReplyDelete'Out Zagg Plus $2.10.'
ReplyDeleteRB- Next time you see a winner buy more than one share!
Shoot me.
ReplyDeleteLooking to add to COOL @ 3.10.
ReplyDelete2000 COOL @ 3.06.
ReplyDeleteFrom the Globe and Mail - Strong rebound in metals likely on the way: Desjardins
ReplyDeletehttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/features/eye-on-equities/strong-rebound-in-metals-likely-on-the-way-desjardins/article2071093/
One particularly interesting line is "They note that metal premiums - what’s paid above the publicly traded price for physical metal - in Europe remain strong. Copper premiums in particular have been surging since early March. "
So Europe appears to have more demand than supply even with their crisis and prices staying above $4.00.
Metals: Yep, seems like we never know what's around the corner anymore. Not to throw cold water on anyone's party but does such enthusiastic news beg for some small opposing degree of buffer?
ReplyDelete"The situation is made more aggravating for metal consumers because supply has far outweighed demand for most of the last decade, and there is more than 4.5 million metric tons of surplus metal stored in LME’s warehouse
system."
http://financialbin.com/2011/06/17/goldman-jp-morgan-have-now-become-a-commodity-cartel-as-they-slowly-recreate-de-beers-diamond-monopoly/
What happened to INTC?
ReplyDeleteFD: I still hold GMO in anticipation of a successful permitting process. ;)
ReplyDeleteINTC- Forget it. Every things getting hit now.
ReplyDeleteTake a look at a daily of SFLY.
ReplyDeleteI guess Bernanke;s schnitzel didn't impress...
ReplyDeleteAnyone going to get longer into this?
ReplyDeleteI am going on vacation today until July 19: Florida, Moscow, Prague, Norway. I decided not to take my laptop with me, so as to prevent myself from selling ECU if it surges to $2 after releasing the drill results from the high-grade sulphide zone. Kinda like 2nd_ave's solitary confinement. So good luck to you all during this month -- hopefully the market doesn't tank while I am away and we all see our portfolios grow.
ReplyDeleteMy last few words of wisdom: do research on stocks MPO, RFE, and RAM. I spoke to a friend of mine from Wall Street yesterday, who specializes in oil companies, and he said that there are some AMAZING opportunities right now in the micro-cap oil exploration sector because of some silly mispricing. As some of his best ideas, he mentioned the 3 tickers above. For MPO in particular, he said that it trades now basically for the cash value the company holds and has almost NO premium for the diverse portfolio of land they are drilling now. Now, THAT's silly. Mark, maybe you can take a look at them and ask your oil guy as well.
Have a great trip David, meanwhile we'll do our best to keep prices in your favor!
ReplyDeleteMark funny you have said that. Since i started trading futures I have bought 5 , 2 and 1 share of stock because I can't remember to change the share amount.My broker loves me.
ReplyDeleteI did only buy 100 shares of WNR on my therapy trade that is up 16 % since last Friday. Could of, should of, would of?
"Pressure stays on Greeks to avoid default"
ReplyDeleteI think Greece has the moral obligation to default, given the circumstances.
David MPO has a new CFO and CEO in the last year in the addition to new board members. Raises red flags for me.
ReplyDeleteRB - Do the parameters of your therapy trade dictate that profits be taken on huge gaps up, or did some fundamental game-changing event occur for WNR?
ReplyDeleteJust curious, I'm guessing strict therapy is simply running it's course there... ;)
Well WNR was upgraded today with a 24 price target. I don't understand what all that price target bullshit means. $24 in a week, a month, a year, ten years! Anyway I will hold WNR for at least one more day:). By the way the psch therapy is to get over the concept that a stock some how remembers at what price I owned before. Basically saying it is OK to CHASE A STOCK up. Buy high, sell higher IBD bull shit. WNR is not expensive because I owned at 7.00 and ZAGG is not expensive since Team owned it at 2.00. On second thought Zagg is expensive. I will look to short if I can ID a euphoric spike that knocks the shorts out and then look out below.
ReplyDeleteCopper - Here's the chart, it doesn't look particularly inspiring or stirring aside from it being back to where it was three years ago:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$copper&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
WNR - FWIW, it appears the WTIC:Brent spread increased rather substantially today, that may have had some effect on WNR...???
ReplyDeleteOf course I wouldn't pretend to know the real reason, just throwing out another perspective.
"David MPO has a new CFO and CEO in the last year in the addition to new board members. Raises red flags for me."
ReplyDeleteExactly. And it also raised the red flag for the other traders. THAT's why we can buy MPO at such a discount now. However, my friend met their CEO and he said that everything is OK, and MPO is a GREAT value now.
FD: I have no positions in MPO, RFE or RAM, since all my money is invested in ECUXF. :)
MPO.ax RFE.ax?
ReplyDeleteRed light cameras: According to DC city officials, red light camera revenues are 1/10 of those originally forecast.
ReplyDelete"MPO.ax RFE.ax?"
ReplyDeleteYes.
Chicken, here's the chart I think you need to look at for copper:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mongabay.com/commodities/price-charts/copper-price.html
20+ year base in the $0.90 - $1.50, then breakout starting in 2004 into the $4.00 range. What changed in 2004 - China started becoming a massive importer of copper as it modernized it's economy.
I think as this point we've reached a new trading range and will be generally in the $4.00 - $4.50 range for several years (with the occasional spike). I can't see it going to $8.00 as people would just substitute like they did in the 1970's when copper got expensive (Seen any of those houses from that period with aluminum wiring - what a pain!). I don't think it will drop much other as several big mines are scheduled to close and it is difficult to get new mines going now with the costs / environment / politics, etc. (just ask Taseko).
So I think your best investment now is a good copper company with growing production and strong reserves - if dopper moves up, you have leverage, if it moves down, you've got some protection and if it stays flat, the growth of the company will drive your profits.
RAM Energy - $1.36 - Long term chart shows they really got hit mid-2008 and have not recovered much. Oklahoma play:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/RAM-Energy-Resources-bw-1867424162.html?x=0&.v=1
EUO - Looks like the PM hedge play gained some today...
ReplyDelete