So I guess my point is I think this dip is for buying. I originally thought there's a chance we get to 1237 to make it a clean 10% drop but at this point I would NOT be trading from the short side. If we get past this QE nonsense and realize that the economy is ok on it's own then confidence will come right back into the market and will juice it right up to 1,400-1,500. Earnings of $100 in an environment like the one we currently have without all of this fear mongering would normally be trading at 1,700 S&P...i think it's reasonable to get to 1,400-1,500. I know, I know, Hussman has proven that the implied return is low, but Hussman hasn't proven that he is able to successfully manage portfolios.
Intermediate term it is all about uncle buck. As long as the negative correlation between Dollar/ comm or dollar/equities just make all markets a defacto FX market. If QE 2 ends and no mention of QE3 starts is that not in effect quantitative tightening? Euro is on death watch. Japan is printing to pay for their disaster and debt. Aussie and Can will go down quickly with any spike in the dollar due to commodities being pegged to the dollar. Frankly I am surprised team Bernanke has been able to keep a lid on the dollar. What would the market look like with a 90 dollar? So I am bearish until QE 3.
RB > When the commodities start pricing that in and come crashing down, where do the gold/silver bugs turn their money to? the Dollar? that's against their moral fiber. I say its blue chips.
SCCO - Has a very astute Chairman of the Board. He sold a lot of his holdings at or near the peak at or just before the beginning of the year. Not to say it's not cheap now. Then again there has been no insider buying since then. Ref FinViz.
Today's action post Bernanke certainly reinforces the bear position and flipped my algo from ST bull to bear. IT remains bear and LT bull with a target of 1426. LT will flip to bear crossing 1245 which is in reach now. That would be like a trifecta event.
Here is what I think: Most American corporations and the economy are marginally dependent on government spending from all levels of government. All levels of gov are hurting and will contract.
Therefore, some tough times ahead for almost everyone.
RB - Agree, it could very well happen that way. I think about it constantly and so do lots of people. The dollar no longer is a standard like the yardstick, the way it used to be.
Money is desperately searching for a respite, doesn't Ben have a moral obligation to joe sixpack to carry the ball past the goal line?
I am not dire about that scenerio because there is not always a negative correlation between dollar and equities. At some point it will flip and Dollar positive will be equities positive. Just commodities and gold will be left out of the loop. Big caps as team suggest will be the worlds hedge against their sinking currency. We have had cycles of this occurring.
No comments about Obama's speech? He seemed tired and the draw downs are not what I suspect most American's were hoping for. Now it seems Clinton and that pig Gore are taking pot shots at him. Tough sledding indeed.
Illini/CP- The solar parts supplier Jesse jumped into stated with a W...Illini, you said you've traded it before.
Illini- I couldn't agree more with your take on Govt. spending supporting business. Tough, tough times ahead.
Home prices will be the only driver that can save us. If you know someone in the know, tell them to call the fed and let the banks lend. It's all about the velocity of money. Right now the squirt gun is full but on safety.
A Muddywater style hit piece on my beloved Zagg. http://www.scribd.com/doc/45466615/ZAGG-Presentation-12-14-10-Final-2
If there is even an ounce of truth to these stories how do pump and dumpers stay out of jail? And if there is no legal hazard to this why don't we start are own "legally" traded company. We could be " 2nd Ave Diet. International. Trade under the symbol SAD. Manufacture diet herbs that guarantee you will lose weight. 2nd is ceo, mark head of distribution. Me manufacturing. cheap labor in toostoned.. Team CFO. JB head of sells. T3D Pacific Rim region VP, David eastern block VP, BB canada VP, Illi mid west VP. CP East region VP, Kyle will run our grow your thingy longer spin off. CB could be our retirement fund investment manager. We will obviously need to spend all original investment seed money on a legal team. Then we all take out 3 million loans against our company stock and file for bankruptcy. Does anyone see a down side to this?
Muddy Waters just finished toppling Sino-Forest, costing Paulson ~$700M when he exited his position at a loss. Glencore's new CEO was somehow involved in that one as well, on the sell side I think...
Muddy has been quite successful this year with their offensive forensics.
I've been posting about this lately b/c of Glencore's commodities connections.
CP - wouldn't be surprised if it was him...guess he ain't that sharp, only makes winning trades when he can conspire with goldman sucks to illegally manipulate the construction of ABS's
Went to the dark side....I bought $150 July GLD puts at $3.30 just now...bought quite a few actually...about $10k worth. I'm thinking this is the camel that breaks the bulls back but what do i know?
JB do you get slippage. What is your order entry and exit methodology. I will always have a hard stop, so i will not complain about slippage there., but i am losing a tick on my wins more than I would like.
RB - slippage is certainly a problem with CL and to a lesser extent 6E, not too bad with ES and TF. Entry is based on MP plus price action (most of the time I am moving into an existing trend, except for the counter trend 3 bar reversal trade), I use 6-10 tick stops depending on the contract, and I scale out in thirds (I normally trade 3 contracts), first out at 4-5 ticks, 2nd out 8-10 ticks and then I leave a runner, I move stops of quickly once I scale out of the first contract
I am short 2 ES at 64.25 now. I will exit all at 8 ticks if I can get it. Lunch is slooow. I do about the same with scaling out and stops. I just use simple chart formation set ups on 5 min that do not come too often, much boredom, but trying not to overtrade. Trying really hard.Target just hit with no slippage yea!
Screw it I'm gonna go back in the Gold Trade. I would think yesterdays Fed press conference has got to scare some of these gold bulls. A little fear would drop the GLD down to the $140 level pretty quickly which isn't the worst thing for gold bulls...it will just help work off the excessive bullishness.
As such I re-entered the GLD July $150 puts at $3.4
Okay, so when do the PM bears make their final assault??? Gold is a byproduct metal after all, so lower consumption of base metals equates to lower supplies of PM's for cryin' out loud!
RB - no I didn't get it. I would have had to wait until 66 (breaking above the dev) put PA didn't confirm and now I would need to see a move below 65 with strong sell pressure to try to go short.
BEXP - No buy, I couldn't log into my trading account fast enough before it bounced and I wanted to buy it under $25 anyway for a day trade.
I just don't like the chart enough to hold for more than a couple days even though I'm probably wrong I don't want to take the chance considering the unemployment circumstances.
This market looks weak right now. I am watching The ES with my nose too close to the screen. Going to take a 20 min break and will be back for the last hour fire works.
Mark - I sold some TZA & LCC pre-market (WAY too early as it turned out) then sold some OTM puts on ERX, UCO, GS, RIG ... will see how that works out..
USD spiked up a bit a few minutes ago then retreated, causing oil stocks and PM's to follow right along. Just a little hill and valley on today's roller coaster ride.
Gold - Otherwise, that would've been a breakout and we can't have that (please, not another breakout without having even retested the 144SMA, just not quite yet). ;)
Looks like absolute desperation move coordinated by Obama, Ben and Trichet to reduce commodity (food and gasoline especially) prices to prevent next leg of depression from kicking in. My guess is it works for a couple days, and eventually fails like every other manipulation they have tried in the past couple years.
BTW, I think it will fail because they will blink well before the cliff this time, not wait till the last moments like in 2008/2009 after deflation and deleveraging have taken over everything.
JNPR - Yes cp, that's the other side of the trade...could be a DBI (Drop-Base-Implosion to use Vad's terminology) with target to the 25 level. Will see how it handles the 28 level.
CB - I don't think the strtegic oil reserve will amount to anything, hopefully they need and want to allow the inflation cycle to run it's course.
Perhaps the infamous Roosevelt opium buzz is working it's magic on Ben? He did mention yesterday he's become disoriented, perhaps he's scared or rather needs to create some volatility for some purpose?
A little volatility might unfreeze the trading robots, LOL!?!?!
We really don't know the extent of whom else was involved, at least I don't. I do believe it's safe to say there are still players behind the scenes pulling on strings:
"Warren Delano returned to America rich, and in 1851 settled in Newburgh, N.Y. There he eventually gave his daughter Sara in marriage to a wellborn neighbor, James Roosevelt, the father of Franklin Roosevelt. The old China trader was closemouthed about opium, as were his partners in Russell & Company. It is not clear how much F.D.R. knew about this source of his grandfather's wealth. But the President's recent biographer Geoffrey Ward rejects efforts by the Delano family to minimize Warren's involvement.
The family's discomfort is understandable. We no longer believe that anything goes in the global marketplace, regardless of social consequences. It is precisely this conviction that underlies efforts to attach human rights conditions to trading relations to temper the amorality of the market a point that, alas, seems to elude the Socialist soontobe masters of Hong Kong. "
Sold COOL just now for 3.00. I'm guessing a few people are bidding on the 'news' it will be added to the Russel Microcap. Either way, it's a $450 loss for me that was over 1,000 at the close.
In case you missed it, the CEO dumped about 1/3 of his shares over the last few days. Form 4 posted yesterday.
I'll consider it a small miracle I only got hit that hard.
2nd - the more positive earnings we get like FDX, the larger the divergence between reality and the market.
ReplyDeleteSo I guess my point is I think this dip is for buying. I originally thought there's a chance we get to 1237 to make it a clean 10% drop but at this point I would NOT be trading from the short side. If we get past this QE nonsense and realize that the economy is ok on it's own then confidence will come right back into the market and will juice it right up to 1,400-1,500. Earnings of $100 in an environment like the one we currently have without all of this fear mongering would normally be trading at 1,700 S&P...i think it's reasonable to get to 1,400-1,500. I know, I know, Hussman has proven that the implied return is low, but Hussman hasn't proven that he is able to successfully manage portfolios.
ReplyDeleteEUO - Looks like the PM hedge play gained some today...
ReplyDeleteBB - Good points on copper, FCX and SCCO look like decent entries here perhaps, based on their RSI-7's having cycled through 30...
ReplyDeleteSCCO - Thia one had a nice volume spike on the 6th as well, and there's an open gap down from $33....
ReplyDeleteMaybe a lower risk entry appears if we get a scary day soon.
Intermediate term it is all about uncle buck. As long as the negative correlation between Dollar/ comm or dollar/equities just make all markets a defacto FX market. If QE 2 ends and no mention of QE3 starts is that not in effect quantitative tightening? Euro is on death watch. Japan is printing to pay for their disaster and debt. Aussie and Can will go down quickly with any spike in the dollar due to commodities being pegged to the dollar. Frankly I am surprised team Bernanke has been able to keep a lid on the dollar. What would the market look like with a 90 dollar? So I am bearish until QE 3.
ReplyDeleteRB > When the commodities start pricing that in and come crashing down, where do the gold/silver bugs turn their money to? the Dollar? that's against their moral fiber. I say its blue chips.
ReplyDeleteSCCO - Has a very astute Chairman of the Board. He sold a lot of his holdings at or near the peak at or just before the beginning of the year. Not to say it's not cheap now. Then again there has been no insider buying since then. Ref FinViz.
ReplyDeleteSOL - Was this the solar play?
ReplyDeleteToday's action post Bernanke certainly reinforces the bear position and flipped my algo from ST bull to bear. IT remains bear and LT bull with a target of 1426. LT will flip to bear crossing 1245 which is in reach now. That would be like a trifecta event.
ReplyDeleteHere is what I think: Most American corporations and the economy are marginally dependent on government spending from all levels of government. All levels of gov are hurting and will contract.
Therefore, some tough times ahead for almost everyone.
RB - Agree, it could very well happen that way. I think about it constantly and so do lots of people. The dollar no longer is a standard like the yardstick, the way it used to be.
ReplyDeleteMoney is desperately searching for a respite, doesn't Ben have a moral obligation to joe sixpack to carry the ball past the goal line?
GLD - +0.15%
ReplyDeleteSLV - -0.03%
S&P - -0.66%
dow - -0.65%
I am not dire about that scenerio because there is not always a negative correlation between dollar and equities. At some point it will flip and Dollar positive will be equities positive. Just commodities and gold will be left out of the loop. Big caps as team suggest will be the worlds hedge against their sinking currency. We have had cycles of this occurring.
ReplyDeleteWell, maybe at last we're about to find out.
ReplyDelete2nd picks a scene from my favorite movie!!
ReplyDeleteDavid- Have a great trip!!
No comments about Obama's speech? He seemed tired and the draw downs are not what I suspect most American's were hoping for. Now it seems Clinton and that pig Gore are taking pot shots at him. Tough sledding indeed.
Illini/CP- The solar parts supplier Jesse jumped into stated with a W...Illini, you said you've traded it before.
Illini- I couldn't agree more with your take on Govt. spending supporting business. Tough, tough times ahead.
Home prices will be the only driver that can save us. If you know someone in the know, tell them to call the fed and let the banks lend. It's all about the velocity of money. Right now the squirt gun is full but on safety.
ANR - Coming off the low? Note +DI lifted above 10:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=anr&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
A Muddywater style hit piece on my beloved Zagg.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.scribd.com/doc/45466615/ZAGG-Presentation-12-14-10-Final-2
If there is even an ounce of truth to these stories how do pump and dumpers stay out of jail? And if there is no legal hazard to this why don't we start are own "legally" traded company. We could be " 2nd Ave Diet. International. Trade under the symbol SAD. Manufacture diet herbs that guarantee you will lose weight. 2nd is ceo, mark head of distribution. Me manufacturing. cheap labor in toostoned.. Team CFO. JB head of sells. T3D Pacific Rim region VP, David eastern block VP, BB canada VP, Illi mid west VP. CP East region VP, Kyle will run our grow your thingy longer spin off. CB could be our retirement fund investment manager. We will obviously need to spend all original investment seed money on a legal team. Then we all take out 3 million loans against our company stock and file for bankruptcy. Does anyone see a down side to this?
TBT - Hmm, assuming Ben's gonna do the other thing now (not buy T's), then shouldn't we be considering shorting T's given a buy signal develops?
ReplyDeleteOh lookie there, TBT chart looks kinda like a bottoming formation...
Muddy Waters just finished toppling Sino-Forest, costing Paulson ~$700M when he exited his position at a loss. Glencore's new CEO was somehow involved in that one as well, on the sell side I think...
ReplyDeleteMuddy has been quite successful this year with their offensive forensics.
I've been posting about this lately b/c of Glencore's commodities connections.
A new chart formation for true t and A guys.
ReplyDeletehttp://chart.ly/hg7nt7o
Very good RB :)))
ReplyDeleteWash out day today?
I actually think 1220 is now in play.
ReplyDeleteThis is going to be one of those shitty days where everything opens outside my pivots.
ReplyDeleteXLE has made a new low. Still above the 200's.
ReplyDeleteThe goal here, as I see it, is to dislodge as many bulls as possible.
ReplyDeleteThat means you. That means me.
ReplyDeleteThe only defense is solitary. Where the rule is total silence.
ReplyDeleteNLS has held in there pretty well.
ReplyDeleteRemember, this sell off will reverse during the day.
ReplyDeletePretty good buy volume here.
ReplyDeleteNo safe havens today. Certainly not in oil or PM's. Maybe MITK ($6.73) but that could change on a dime.
ReplyDeleteEverything will be OK. P is green!!
ReplyDeleteBet we close green today.
Look at LEN!!
ReplyDeleteJB's monster position in XHB green also!!! Housing will lead us out of this!! Weeee!!!
ReplyDeleteMark - From last nite ...."The solar parts supplier Jesse jumped into stated with a W...Illini, you said you've traded it before."
ReplyDeleteMust be referring to WFR who makes silicon wafers.
SVM - Still have my stink bid in at $8.55 but I don't expect it's gonna fill...
ReplyDeletelook at MITK go! It's in a secular bull market that cares not about the general markets.
ReplyDeleteSo in order for housing to recover, don't we need at least a couple of things going for it?
ReplyDelete1) Low rates
2) Improving employment
I would think a housing recovery should improve banksters balance sheets beyond expectation...
WFR- That's it, thanks!
ReplyDeleteWill this year be a Christmas in July???
ReplyDeleteBAC sitting right on s3, that goes it'll be a single digit stock in no time.
ReplyDeleteWFR - Here's the stockchart in case you want it.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=wfr&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
ReplyDeleteThey're doing their best to push gold under $1500, I'd be surprised if they can but they must be getting desperate about commodities prices.
ReplyDeletePerhaps the one thing they could do is actually try creating some jobs for once...
CP - re gold, saw a twit that a big hedge fund is in trouble and might be liquidating its position in gld
ReplyDeleteMy altzheimers is flaring up again this morning (I hope it's not coming back), couldn't recall the ticker for base metals.
ReplyDeleteDBB - Judging by my interpretation of the stockchart, it's not ready to rally. Maybe July?
SPY swing low was 126.32. We're awfully close.
ReplyDeleteJB - I wonder if that isn't Paulson, he just got smacked on the Sino-Forest deal and some folks think that may be why gold miners were hit so badly.
ReplyDeleteWho knows, these rumors only sometimes fit the charts in hindsight.
DIA broke it's SL, but recovered. Q's have some room.
ReplyDeleteOK, I'm out. Some one e-mail me it we break SPY SL. Thanks!
JB - Besides, I see plenty of twits just about everywhere I go nowadays.
ReplyDeleteCP - wouldn't be surprised if it was him...guess he ain't that sharp, only makes winning trades when he can conspire with goldman sucks to illegally manipulate the construction of ABS's
ReplyDeleteSPY- Forget it.. It did break and recover while I was typing. OK, some one email me if SPY breaks 126 even.
ReplyDeletePeace out.
My bad, I'm sorry, No more essays on the dollar. Instead of solitary I will be exiled to Siberia.
ReplyDeleteCP - Haven't you heard that the unemployment is now "structural". I think that means we're screwed.
ReplyDeleteWent to the dark side....I bought $150 July GLD puts at $3.30 just now...bought quite a few actually...about $10k worth. I'm thinking this is the camel that breaks the bulls back but what do i know?
ReplyDeleteBEXP - Lookin' sexy ta me here, but today I'm a nun till after it successfully retests the recent bottom.
ReplyDeleteActually I think my entry is wrong on GLD so I closed it..I see too many things in the green right now.
ReplyDeleteinstitutions are bottom fishing, buying the ES near the lows
ReplyDeleteRB - I think I must've missed your essay on the dollar. Feel free to enlighten, some of us have thick heads or are extra stubborn.
ReplyDeletePerhaps something along the lines of a cattle prod would be appropriate. ;)
I suspect that this market rallies hard from here...just a guess but a lot of leading stocks are green.
ReplyDeleteJb what do you use as indicators on you ES screen. I just have BB, pivot points and vwap with volume. Clean screen.
ReplyDeleteIn otherwords: Damn son, you sure can be suttle!
ReplyDeleteHa, I get to use the cattle prod first!
subtle
ReplyDeleteTEAM checkout DUST it is a 2x short gold miners ETF and a great ticker symbol.
ReplyDeleteRB > I think today is NOT a day to short man...look at AAPL, NFLX, BIDU, LULU, CMG...all green. That's very odd to me.
ReplyDeleteRB - for futures trading (ES, 6E, CL, TF, etc) I use Market Profile, 3 different MA's, Stoch's, Time and Sales, and Market Depth
ReplyDeleteTeam i noticed that too in the high beta tech shit stocks are not down as far as normal. Strange day.
ReplyDeleteES trying to crawl back up to S3, come on baby!
ReplyDeleteJB do you get slippage. What is your order entry and exit methodology. I will always have a hard stop, so i will not complain about slippage there., but i am losing a tick on my wins more than I would like.
ReplyDeleteRB - slippage is certainly a problem with CL and to a lesser extent 6E, not too bad with ES and TF. Entry is based on MP plus price action (most of the time I am moving into an existing trend, except for the counter trend 3 bar reversal trade), I use 6-10 tick stops depending on the contract, and I scale out in thirds (I normally trade 3 contracts), first out at 4-5 ticks, 2nd out 8-10 ticks and then I leave a runner, I move stops of quickly once I scale out of the first contract
ReplyDeleterejected hard at S3, hopefully they'll give it another go after lunch
ReplyDeleteI am short 2 ES at 64.25 now. I will exit all at 8 ticks if I can get it. Lunch is slooow. I do about the same with scaling out and stops. I just use simple chart formation set ups on 5 min that do not come too often, much boredom, but trying not to overtrade. Trying really hard.Target just hit with no slippage yea!
ReplyDeleteScrew it I'm gonna go back in the Gold Trade. I would think yesterdays Fed press conference has got to scare some of these gold bulls. A little fear would drop the GLD down to the $140 level pretty quickly which isn't the worst thing for gold bulls...it will just help work off the excessive bullishness.
ReplyDeleteAs such I re-entered the GLD July $150 puts at $3.4
Interesting that Copper - the commodity that is not being targetted by the government for being too high is down less than 1/3 of 1 percent today.
ReplyDeleteAnyhone have a guess guess where oil will be in a few months - lower or back to where it was before today's action?
BB > I think oil hits $100 again for sure...just not sure when
ReplyDeleteIsn't it somewhat saddening to know that banksters are making hay whether or not the sun is shining?
ReplyDeleteOK I'm going to sit myself in trading purgatory for the rest of the day. I sold my GLD puts at a small loss and will wait it out.
ReplyDeletemissed the rip. Did you get it JB
ReplyDeleteOkay, so when do the PM bears make their final assault??? Gold is a byproduct metal after all, so lower consumption of base metals equates to lower supplies of PM's for cryin' out loud!
ReplyDeleteMake a decision and send me a memo already!
JJG - I'm liking this stockchart a lot.
ReplyDeleteRB - no I didn't get it. I would have had to wait until 66 (breaking above the dev) put PA didn't confirm and now I would need to see a move below 65 with strong sell pressure to try to go short.
ReplyDeleteWhat are the levels you are watching RB?
1268.75 now. For support. I will go long if it retraces there and holds.
ReplyDeleteinvalidated
ReplyDeleteBexp is off the hook. Should of....
BEXP - Struttin her stuff, she's a two-dollar whore today!
ReplyDeleteDamn, that was a good buying opportunity for someone. ;)
DRWI - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=drwi&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
ReplyDeleteRB - you see that ugly 3min candle on the ES...wow
ReplyDeleteBEXP, OK, I guess that can make sense, but HEK?
ReplyDeleteFTWR - The heck with HEK!!!
ReplyDeleteYRCW - Oh yeah, we're falling off a cliff alright!
ReplyDeleteFLOW - An island reversal play?
ReplyDeleteCP did you buy BEXP without telling I am going to sic David on you.
ReplyDeleteTBT - If this one closes the week under $32.30 it will fail my initial buy criteria.
ReplyDeleteBEXP - No buy, I couldn't log into my trading account fast enough before it bounced and I wanted to buy it under $25 anyway for a day trade.
ReplyDeleteI just don't like the chart enough to hold for more than a couple days even though I'm probably wrong I don't want to take the chance considering the unemployment circumstances.
This market looks weak right now. I am watching The ES with my nose too close to the screen. Going to take a 20 min break and will be back for the last hour fire works.
ReplyDeleteYou guys crack me up...Wish it was Friday.
ReplyDeleteObama released strategic reserves? Good God, that sounds rather desperate and ill-timed to me, I hope the reaction causes a PM selling panic.
ReplyDeleteTBT....Juuuuuust around the corner...
ReplyDeleteWhatever happened to the shovel-ready jobs, were they excavated then covered over?
ReplyDeletecp - They were shit shoveling jobs in DC...
ReplyDeleteLot's of coin rolling into TLT here.
ReplyDeleteBig volume in SPY here??? Kinda early.
ReplyDeleteWTF??
ReplyDelete5 min too late News?
ReplyDeleteMark - BC talks about 'Interventionists' ... that last move in SPX & TZA says don't short this market'
ReplyDeleteSo what do lower gasoline prices do for global warming and the Chevy Volt? I swear, this is so unbelievably weird!
ReplyDeleteAlright, I guess I'll be dragging those 15 gallon oil drums sitting in the back of the barn to the filling station soon!
The leg bone's connected to the ear bone! ;)
OK, Greece deal.
ReplyDeleteThis is going to be one wild summer...
ReplyDeleteKyle- Yeah, I was just going to post...'Can any of you guys trade this?'.
ReplyDeleteI can't.
"I hope the reaction causes a PM selling panic."
ReplyDeleteWell maybe it already did and I just didn't notice...
I just love watching these robots battle it out, someone throw a stink bid in there and see if they jump on it!
ReplyDeleteMark - I sold some TZA & LCC pre-market (WAY too early as it turned out) then sold some OTM puts on ERX, UCO, GS, RIG ... will see how that works out..
ReplyDeleteUSD spiked up a bit a few minutes ago then retreated, causing oil stocks and PM's to follow right along. Just a little hill and valley on today's roller coaster ride.
ReplyDeleteU$D - Fishing line, quick, go to cash! NOT! LOL...
ReplyDeleteMark - Great prediction on markets turning green by the end of day. What gave you the clue?
ReplyDeleteI meant USD spiked DOWN ... causing lift off for ...
ReplyDeleteWhy bother getting into the day-to-day bullshit?
ReplyDeleteMark- Nice call, though.
ReplyDeleteIgor- Just dumb luck.
ReplyDelete2nd- Cause it's fun!
We aint closed yet
ReplyDeleteS&P - The Mariuchi bands are beginning to tighten again now...
ReplyDeleteLike the puts Kyle. Probably were expensive.
ReplyDeleteillini - I was referring to Sinclair's "buy the fishing line sell the rhino horn" trade advice.
ReplyDeleteHadn't seen you post. ;)
seeing a U turn, are DXY and SPY tied that closely...
ReplyDeleteJNPR, draw a trendline off lows on weekly
ReplyDelete727 Million barrels of oil in reserve for politically oriented market tinkering.
ReplyDeleteThese guys have too many buttons at their disposal, will this burn their fingers enough or are interest rate caps just around the corner?
T3d -- Not as smart as you for sure, but I'll try the short Aug 26 puts...
ReplyDeleteT3d -- Delta on Aug 26 is 18.x a little higher than I like ~15
ReplyDeleteGold - Otherwise, that would've been a breakout and we can't have that (please, not another breakout without having even retested the 144SMA, just not quite yet). ;)
ReplyDeleteJNPR - Yet another victim in the sector?
ReplyDeleteLooks like absolute desperation move coordinated by Obama, Ben and Trichet to reduce commodity (food and gasoline especially) prices to prevent next leg of depression from kicking in. My guess is it works for a couple days, and eventually fails like every other manipulation they have tried in the past couple years.
ReplyDeleteBTW, I think it will fail because they will blink well before the cliff this time, not wait till the last moments like in 2008/2009 after deflation and deleveraging have taken over everything.
ReplyDeleteThe ghost of 1937 haunts Ben
ReplyDeleteNY Fed article from last week
ReplyDeletehttp://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2011/06/commodity-prices-and-the-mistake-of-1937-would-modern-economists-make-the-same-mistake.html
JNPR - Yes cp, that's the other side of the trade...could be a DBI (Drop-Base-Implosion to use Vad's terminology) with target to the 25 level. Will see how it handles the 28 level.
ReplyDeleteCB - I don't think the strtegic oil reserve will amount to anything, hopefully they need and want to allow the inflation cycle to run it's course.
ReplyDeletePerhaps the infamous Roosevelt opium buzz is working it's magic on Ben? He did mention yesterday he's become disoriented, perhaps he's scared or rather needs to create some volatility for some purpose?
A little volatility might unfreeze the trading robots, LOL!?!?!
The "three peaks domed house top" sounds like Angkor Wat a bit...I like it...I've been there
ReplyDeletehttp://twitter.com/#!/dougkass
We really don't know the extent of whom else was involved, at least I don't. I do believe it's safe to say there are still players behind the scenes pulling on strings:
ReplyDelete"Warren Delano returned to America rich, and in 1851 settled in Newburgh, N.Y. There he eventually gave his daughter Sara in marriage to a wellborn neighbor, James Roosevelt, the father of Franklin Roosevelt. The old China trader was closemouthed about opium, as were his partners in Russell & Company. It is not clear how much F.D.R. knew about this source of his grandfather's wealth. But the President's recent biographer Geoffrey Ward rejects efforts by the Delano family to minimize Warren's involvement.
The family's discomfort is understandable. We no longer believe that anything goes in the global marketplace, regardless of social consequences. It is precisely this conviction that underlies efforts to attach human rights conditions to trading relations to temper the amorality of the market a point that, alas, seems to elude the Socialist soontobe masters of Hong Kong. "
Sold COOL just now for 3.00. I'm guessing a few people are bidding on the 'news' it will be added to the Russel Microcap. Either way, it's a $450 loss for me that was over 1,000 at the close.
ReplyDeleteIn case you missed it, the CEO dumped about 1/3 of his shares over the last few days. Form 4 posted yesterday.
I'll consider it a small miracle I only got hit that hard.
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