Thursday, June 23, 2011
06/23/11 She wants to know why she's (listened) half her life to people she hates now
It's not just Madoff victims. It's fans of Bill Miller in 2008, fans of Roubini in 2010. I could add a hundred names, all of them easily recognizable. The market has burned both sides of the field in the past three years. 50-80% BSA burns, the kind a plastic surgeon may or may not be able to repair. But hey, we have a few skilled cowboys here who have proven they can do it.
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At the risk of sounding like a day trader, I will opine that we've seen the lows for now.
ReplyDelete2nd - How about fans of this or that analyst such as the discredited former Merrill Lynch dot com guy Henry Blodget, now a Yahoo video personality. Several others going back to '80s such as Michael Milken.
ReplyDeleteOn another note, I have been really trying to be a long term investor this year, even before you were confined to solitary. In June, I have made only one trade and that was the PM ETF CEF just this week. What I have held I am comfortable with even in a red position. Those include CSCO and MSFT.
2nd, a question: Why do you like Wells Fargo? I don't trust any big bank anymore. WFC might be the rose among the thorns but you just can't trust any big bank's balance sheet these days, IMHO.
ReplyDeleteillini- That's the only way to go, IMO. How else can one NOT be played by the market?
ReplyDeleteI like WFC for three reasons.
ReplyDelete(a) I like the service I've received over the past 15-20 years.
(b) My wife used to work for them, and she has great respect for top mgmt.
(c) Warren Buffett owns a ----load, and has recently added to his position.
CP - You got me going to Wikipedia about that Delano fellow. Have not read it all yet but am fascinated by history and especially family histories/biographies.
ReplyDeletebtw, why exactly do you believe we're unable to trust their balance sheet? That sounds a lot like the going media refrain. It's the media I don't trust, bro. And I would imagine the media bull---- has been priced in.
ReplyDeleteBank balance sheets have been granted special accounting privileges by the FASB so that they don't have to mark their bad mortgages to market values. That was in the news a couple years ago and no one seems to mention it nowadays.
ReplyDeleteYes, but we've known that for two years. Maybe the worst was priced in a long time ago?
ReplyDeleteWFC and five other banks (just found). Food for thought?:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thestreet.com/story/11163863/4/5-bank-stocks-analysts-are-downgrading.html
I am not one to degrade anyone's stock picks and don't mean to do so. I ain't such a great picker or timer myself. I cant even compete with those two guys who roam around around in a van on cable TV picking up junk and turning it into collectibles.
ReplyDeleteTest post using new laptop and new identity.
ReplyDeleteIllini
That's funny, I was able to log in and post under my usual Google account and name. Only difference is I am at home using my own Wi-Fi connection and not at my son's house using his Apple Wi-Fi connection.
ReplyDeleteIt is your IP address that Ids you. At your son's your computer uses different IP for different connection.
ReplyDeleteThen what the hell is the sense of so called mobile computing? Do they expect you to sign up with a new identity every where you go. This is all new to me since I have been a fixed base operator.
ReplyDeleteBTW, this post and one before and all others except for the couple recent tests have all been from desktop at home which is a DSL connection and not Wi-Fi at all.
ReplyDeleteRB - I don't get it. Good thing I am just the VP for Midwest/Hic operations and not IT in general.
ReplyDeleteOK, so my Linksys router at home is connected to my desktop and modem. I reckon that provides my ID. But still?
ReplyDeleteMaybe it is your modem then. They all have numbers. So big brother can find you. If I'm on my wife's profile on my same computer, but different profile. Google does not recognize me, But it will let me sign on with password. lets blame google no wonder their stock is going to hell.
ReplyDeleteI will blame Google but am thinking their stock is going down with most others because the market stinks right now.
ReplyDeleteillini - Yep. Gold monetary standard, outflows of monetary silver from China due to massive trade imbalances, loss of wealth, economic collapse, drug proliferation, the last chapter of ancient Chinese history, super elite mega trading companies etc., etc...
ReplyDeleteIt almost sounds eerily familiar:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Opium_War
My Peter Lynch Moment.
ReplyDeleteHYC. I was in a starbucks and bought fropalappas for my whole family. No one carries that much cash! So I had to use my card. The card reader was different then what i was use to. It did the transaction so quickly and efficiently. I started fiddling with it. I turned it over and the maker was HYPERCOM. I have followed it because of the stocks momentum like qualities. It has put in a double bottom and is in the lower part of its range. If the greeks have truly saved the world, I am going to take a 10% stake in the company with a stop below their double bottom.
Stock picks - Hey, I think it's all part of the process of bouncing ideas off each other that makes it all worthwhile.
ReplyDeleteIf you wouldn't pick a stock for some reason, I think you should share with others the insight whether it be right or wrong they can decide for themselves.
It's healthy to look at both sides of the trade and someone may think of an aspect you hadn't considered.
I want to hear the pros and cons, it speeds the process of performing due diligence. Just don't be upset if someone doesn't agree b/c if you're gonna get upset then say nothing.
We all make mistakes.
dow jones - This chart still looks pretty decent to me, but if you look at the 60 and 15 minute charts you may see a completely different picture in the shorter time horizons:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$indu&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
It just couldn't break out of the down channel and through 12213.6, still headed down until it breaks out of this channel, simple as that.
Lower oil helped airlines tremendously, that could make someone a good hedge.
RB- HYC is interesting on the monthly also.
ReplyDeleteWhat's Starbuck's you Fing traitor.
CP- Pass on HYC. The 3-4 gap will scare you. Scares me, but my discipline is suspect at best.
ReplyDeleteHey man it was 108 today. you need a $5 frozen fropallappa to survive.
ReplyDeleteGaps - On the occasion something fundamental changed, such as a new investor, patent, or financing arrangement occurred that changes intrinsic value, it wouldn't necessarily be prudent to anticipate a gap to fill.
ReplyDeleteRB - Caffeine just raises your blood pressure.
ReplyDeleteOn second thought why not just buy Starbucks. Join the legion of pretend socialist that make bank! "All our workers and coffee beans are treated with compassion, here is your $34 bill for five frozen beverages."
ReplyDelete"Thank you so much. I feel my $34 dollars has just saved the planet. I feel so good about my starbucks experience!
TBT - Will be looking for that $32.30 close tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteAt this late hour the Tables & Charts from CC just popped up on FinViz, if anyone is interested. Not me tonight.
ReplyDelete"All our workers and coffee beans are treated with compassion"
ReplyDeleteSilly me, I thought they were treated with a con trail biological cocktail.
Asia sure is in a giddy mood tonight.
ReplyDeleteIf I ever get a hankering for a $5 cup of coffee I will go to my nearby Starbucks, which I have done, once.
ReplyDeleteMy parting thought: Look at CASS, a small cap in STL. http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=CASS&ty=c&ta=0&p=m
ReplyDeleteIts a small bank at the core yet it is much more. I am aware of it for many years of living in St. Louis. They have transformed themselves from a bank founded in 1906 to a biz services company.
CP is MOBI one of those chicoms you follow. Seems to have put in a bottom. Huge volume increase and large short interest. On my stalk list.
ReplyDeletehttp://chart.ly/hg7nt7o
ReplyDeleteWhat a beautiful chart the symmetry is sublime. We have to trade it!
TTM - Volume is falling and stock is rising, as if there are no sellers remaining?
ReplyDeleteLOL, I'll be the hammer! Or if I'm stopped out it looks like the next formation will have a pliers (or tweezers, whichever applies). ;)
ReplyDeleteMOBI - I'm really not interested in Chinese stuff at this point, there's too much other "quality" around now.
ReplyDeleteLOL. So you saw that new chart formation from last night. LOL. See this trading stuff can be fun!
ReplyDeleteSeriously, have you ever seen a chart like that?
It was a good one, the last one I saw like that showed a swan formation.
ReplyDeleteArgh, gotta shut this thing off and hit the sack, scream at ya' en la manana...
apj up nicely and emea is off to a great start, let's see how futes here hold up....only 6+ hours to the use open!
ReplyDeleteDRRX- Might be worth keeping an eye on. I know this one a little and it's more than a one drug co.
ReplyDeleteChicken, BMO does a weekly rating of their preferred metals and the top pick (for many weeks now) continues to be Copper. They talk about decreasing supply as well as increasing demand.
ReplyDeleteThere is a summary of one of their reports from last year at http://www.investorsguru.com/ViewNewsletter.html?id=8
No Greek Gap. The market looks weak.
ReplyDeleteMU weighing on the chippies.
ReplyDeleteQ's/DIA broke pivot. That means I can't try SPY's pivot.
ReplyDeleteBB - Gartman says: - "Buy gold, sell copper" Not that I put much faith in Gartman.
ReplyDeleteLOL, Truth is, I'd rather buy copper than gold and waiting to see which way FCX goes as it approaches the end of this current triangle formation.
Who knows, from the looks of the action I may be able to buy most anything at great recession lows in just a few hours...
ReplyDeleteAirlines getting hammered.
ReplyDeleteMOBI already up 10% putting in the tweezer!
ReplyDeletePerfect way to open the market after yesterday's moves is what I think. Keeps the bulls at bay.
ReplyDeleteWent long PIR at $11.53
Remember when all the action was in the last hour of trading. like 2-3 years ago. Now its the opening and first few minutes of the NY day with frequent gaps. Due to the news from Euro land?
ReplyDeleteAll the negativity is good. Let it rain.
ReplyDeletelets see unless there is market intervention the market goes down. The boys are telling Ben they want QE3. The greek deal is just a side show. I think we sell off until BEN makes his move. Maybe by noon.
ReplyDeleteThese are wild times, man.
ReplyDeleteThe P indicator say's everything is fine.
ReplyDeleteSUG - now there is a bidding war on for Southern Union pipeline. + 15.7% today.
ReplyDeleteSilver - I bet ya they can't close silver below $34.48, if they do then they've accomplished some major damage.
ReplyDeleteRB - MOBI is a Chinese stock, Muddy Waters will short the rally and publish a negative piece on MOBI's balance sheet tomorrow morning.
ReplyDeleteMOBI trades down to new 52 week lows all the next two weeks, then gets put on the pink sheets once the halt is lifted, assuming it's lifted.
RB - from a MP standpoint 70.75 is a key level we go thru that w/volume I would then go long the ES, we fail there then I would move short
ReplyDeletelooks like the commercials are already pushing it down, so I can't even get in on the short side. The locals, in the pit, are long so we may get another run here pre-lunch hour
ReplyDeletesome of the guys I trade ES with are using this little move up to 69.25 to go short...not me
ReplyDeleteThanks JB that helps. i am kicking myself for not shorting the obvious 74.50 break and being done for the day.
ReplyDeletefor a scalp they already got +.75
ReplyDeleteRB - yeah, I pissed too, got started late for my walk and I missed that whole move
ReplyDeletedamn! that short at 69.25 was the right move. I was so focused on the 6E, it had been moving up, that I got completely focused on the upside potential.
ReplyDeleteFrankly that super spike yesterday has me nervous.I'm new to this futures business, but i know if i was short during the spike my stop would not of been slippage. It would have been falling flat on my face before my order was filled. If I was long i would think I was the greatest trader ever!
ReplyDeleteRB - who do you trade thru and which charting package do you use? I'm with Infinity and I use Sierra Charts
ReplyDeleteI'm with IB and use Sierra charts. I trade off the Chart DOM and use attached child orders. So I have a stop in place when i get filled. Hopefully
ReplyDeleteSVM - Come to me baby, you've got a gap to fill and I've got the stiffie to get the job done!
ReplyDeleteThe dollar chart looks poised for a break out right at looong term resistance.
ReplyDeleteCommodities crash and that money goes right into equities...no way the gold bulls / silver bulls buy the dollar or treasurys.
ReplyDeleteCommodities crash - PM's demand destruction?
ReplyDeleteRecession next year- According to Garry Shilling
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/113005/shilling-new-recession-marketwatch;_ylt=AmpiWfq6_jlzjEngYtWYML67YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1NDltcDU0BHBvcwM2BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNuZXdyZWNlc3Npb24-?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=
Igor > Shilling has been hating on the economy for a long long time.
ReplyDeleteTook a peek @ DRRX now that it's @ 2.00.
ReplyDeleteBid/Ask size 8,900/733,869. LOL...
This was recently posted over at cc...
ReplyDeleteGolden Minerals to buy ECU Silver for C$302.5 mln
Submitted by BillySundance (944 comments) on Fri, 06/24/2011 - 12:38 #88354
UPDATE 1-Golden Minerals to buy ECU Silver for C$302.5 mln
Fri Jun 24, 2011 3:24pm GMT Print | Single Page[-] Text [+] (Follows alerts)
June 24 (Reuters) - Golden Minerals Co said it will buy Canada's ECU Silver Mining in a reverse merger for about C$302.5 million ($309.1 million) in stock and cash, to form a new silver mining company focused on Mexico and Argentina.
Under the terms of the deal, ECU shareholders will get 0.05 common shares of Golden Minerals and about $0.000394 in cash for each share they hold.
The deal values ECU at C$0.97 a share, a discount of about 7 percent to their closing price of C$1.04 on Thursday on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
Colorado-based Golden Minerals will own about 49 percent of the new entity, while ECU shareholders will own the rest.
Shares of ECU, which is focused on exploration and mining of gold, silver and base metals in Durango, Mexico, were down about 8 percent at 96 Canadian cents in early trade. Shares of Golden Minerals were down less than a percent at C$19.32 on the TSX. ($1 = 0.979 Canadian Dollars) (Reporting by Gowri Jayakumar in Bangalore; Editing by Savio D'Souza)
Ut oh...Breaking S1 here across the indices.
ReplyDeleteT3D- When an index keeps coming down and banging on a trend line/average doesn't it usually break? Seems to be to me, but my view is only about 5 years.
ReplyDeleteMark - the ECU deal is an another example of a "take under"
ReplyDeleteDAMN that ruins David's plans, Takeover at discount points to some type of financial gun to its head or why would they agree? Maybe its for the best.
ReplyDeleteECU - "Golden Minerals to buy ECU Silver for C$302.5 mln"
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/24/ecusilver-goldenminerals-idUSL3E7HO1XH20110624?feedType=RSS&feedName=mergersNews&rpc=43
JB- I cant possibly be expected to read all of that! What's the deal? David needs to know this right?
ReplyDeleteMark level break. two is a double bottom or top the third is a breakout or breakdown. If it recovers that is called a failure. I have the most confidence in the third move below or above. Horiz trend only. The diaganols are just for trend change. Right now I just went long ES because it broke back above for the third time .
ReplyDeleteLets see if it works.
AUMN - Wonder if David's AUMN will break out soon?
ReplyDeleteMark - ECU is being taken over at a price LESS than it is currently trading at in the market as of this morning. only a matter of pennies, but heck every little bit counts!
ReplyDeleteRB - could have gone long when the ES kissed the POC, 62.75, but I just don't have a clue today so I let it go. hope your long rocks!
ReplyDeleteRB/JB/CP- Thanks.
ReplyDeleteECU- Marginal discount, but yep, they must need cash bad.
This is a big position for David. Should I email him?
Just got stopped out that is called a breakout failure. Us chartists have an excuse for everything! My stop is probably too tight, but hey were in a down trend. Failures to the long side will be more prevalent.
ReplyDeleteLike I said the 4th time is the charm. Fuckers.
ReplyDeletewow that's a crazy development for ECUXF.
ReplyDeleteguys - if you get some free time I'd recommend listening to the PIR conference call from last Thursday. It's really bullish in my mind and suggests that PIR should be trading a good deal higher. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if someone else buys them out. Their balance sheet is very strong, margins are expanding, comp store sales are running at double digit growth rates, and they still haven't launched an e-commerce enabled website (they only currently show items for sale). I think this could actually be a $20+ stock.
what a frustrating day RB!!! but like you posted earlier, it's a trend day and then trend is down.
ReplyDeletelistening to traders audio this whole move up in the ES is just local to local, almost zero commercial buying, probably just setting up a small bull trap
"This is a big position for David. Should I email him? "
ReplyDeleteHell Yeah, he needs to know ASAP!
Kyle JNPR, I trade options seldom, so I defer to you on those.
ReplyDeleteMark, I think the answer to that question is unknowable, you have to pick your spots, based on your experience and respect stops.
The reason I mentioned JNPR yesterday is that its on its LT trend line, many traders will buy this and if it breaks lower bail.
http://screencast.com/t/NfYEfZOKt
It definitely needs to hold here so far so good today.
I was trying to decide between JNPR and INTC yesterday and chose INTC because it had an outside day and held the 200. Stocks can do anything you have to decide how you want to react to the variables.
http://screencast.com/t/qyDLtqSpMf
ECU, look at that curve ball and David said he was going dark during his trip.
I'm on the defense here due to weakness which I anticipated and can buy back all sold positions cheaper, plus capital has been protected as is my preference.
This is not to say I not losing money here, I am but very much muted to what it could have been.
Currently hold:
MDW
AEM
XOM
TOT
INTC
and could change at any time. Notice the last three pay good divs to help lessen pain, but not really.
The market is really dicey here and if i had perfect foresight I would have sold all a few days ago. FWIW
Probablly the big money traders are at happy hour now.
ReplyDeleteBTW, I decide to buy the oils with the thought that if I get beat its going to be on something the world cannot do without, OIL. The buggers got me again with SPR bs and the last time when they jiggered the GSCI index that they changed weightings on a few years ago. Un-vucking believable, but its true. Cheers t3d
ReplyDeleteone last try, sell stop @91.04 in the CL
ReplyDeleteRB, not really contra hour is up.
ReplyDeletemoving it down to 91 even
ReplyDeleteshort 91...let's see what happens
ReplyDelete1/3 off 98.94
ReplyDeletestop to BE
ReplyDelete1/3 off 98.85 (+15)!!
ReplyDeletestop 90.75
ReplyDeleteSeems like selling into strength to me, I could be mistaken b/c it's only a hunch with no proof whatsoever.
ReplyDeleteflat at 90.73...made the whole day!
ReplyDeleteJB awesome trade! Because of your pep talk I took ten ticks out of the ES short. Now just down a wee bit.
ReplyDeletegood job RB!! enjoy the weekend. we'll get 'em again on Monday.
ReplyDeleteI contacted David on ECU. He is in the loop. Fortunately he was still in Florida.
ReplyDeleteGreat Igor.
ReplyDeleteSNDK gap fill from Nov.
ReplyDeleteThinking of playing COOL on the rebalancing.
ReplyDeleteOK, bidding 4000 COOL @ 2.90.
ReplyDeleteLet's see if it hits and spikes like HEK/FTWR did going in.
OK, 3650 COOL @ 2.89.
ReplyDeleteGPL - Following RSI(7) action nicely, this RSI hit 71 (overbought) yesterday and of course today it has turned down from there.
ReplyDeleteBased solely on this metric alone, it's time to take gains but I think I'll wait for the next cycle considering the current circumstances.
Unless today they take it back above yesterday's close, in which I'll let it go today in anticipation of a reload next week.
COOL off @ 3.96. Nice.
ReplyDeleteI did it again bought. 4 shares of mobi. Went long HYC and Mobi. The Bernanke weekend trade.
ReplyDeleteTBT - Closing price meets my entry price objective.
ReplyDeleteDow 11,934.58 -115.42 -0.96%
Nasdaq 2,652.89 -33.86 -1.26%
S&P 500 1,268.45 -15.05 -1.17%
10 Yr Bond(%) 2.8710% -0.0380
Oil 91.21 +0.19 +0.21%
Gold 1,502.40 -17.70 -1.16%
This market is brutal from the long side....
ReplyDeleteTBT - I take that back, my objective price of $32.59 wasn't met. I was mistaken.
ReplyDeleteMaybe next week Bernanke must back off on keeping T' buyers whole?
From the perspective that low rates provide negative returns on treasury paper, that wouldn't be the case while the dollar is in rally mode. But considering PM miners were putting in their bottom just as the dollar was doing the same, downside risk in the sector could be minimal, the same phenomenon as the current situation with the dollar appears to be.
So, assuming the dollar rallies from here, PM's could continue sinking back at least to their perspective support levels and T's should be safe until the dollar rally is complete.
The dollar rally would subside around the same time period the next QE period resumes.
Hopefully the next round of QE will be oriented towards jobs creation as opposed to simply making the banking sector whole.
This could get interesting, especially if I can figure it all out in advance...
Hey, maybe with all this uninspiring economic data bubbling to surface, money will recognize the mispriced value and begin coming out of equities and into PM miners next week?
ReplyDeleteMaybe I shouldn't wait for that little SVM gap up to close, this could be my last entry opportunity before the big rally!
It could happen! ;)
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ReplyDelete