Friday, June 3, 2011
06/3/11 As Lady and I look out tonight from Desolation Row
Bad 5 weeks? Let me straighten you out:
(a) High five the 5 weeks of declines! Nothing comes close to the high of come-from-behind wins. I've had days that started with a string of bad luck. I've played on teams that started with a string of losses. There have been entire stretches of my life where I've taken one hit after another. All of the above set the stage for the best memories of my life. Play like Staubach.
(b) When the going gets tough, tough ----, bro! Yin, yang. Exhiliration, despair. You've been here a million times, you know what it's like. It's like a few clicks down the road and from the next ridge the valley you left behind fades into a crease.
(c) I'm in my element on Desolation Row. I enjoy living uptown, but only because I take the downtown bus home.
Skate your state of mind to where the puck is headed, yo.
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It was a good week, illini. I'm putting on the suit for dinner.
ReplyDeleteThe key to happiness- get unhappy.
ReplyDeleteWell, not exactly. One does not seek to get unhappy. One just gets unhappy from time to time on the road of life. In the process of 'dealing with it,' one becomes happy.
ReplyDeleteMark, the pincher I'm referring to is when the MACD (Black line) and ADX(Pink line) move close together, then as confirmation the MACD and ADX must turn (MACD up, ADX down). The MACD/ADX pinch is the indicator, the confirmation is when both turn away, not just one.
ReplyDeleteCADC made the same pattern, indicating a bottom:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=cadc&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
And the MACD/ADX motion must be symmetrical, with similar radius.
ReplyDeleteTRE didn't follow that pattern, not all charts do, apparently. NGD did, though.
ReplyDeleteBTU made a pincher too.
ReplyDeleteI saw a headline today "Wall St skids to 5th week of losses." How lame! In the good old days, the drop from 1360 to 1300 would be accomplished in one day! I say until S&P drops to where it was when QE2 began (1100, that is), we shouldn't even talk about our patience being "tested" by the market.
ReplyDeleteCP- What dates in the BEXP chart are you looking at. I'm still confused. And what does ADX mean/track? Advance/decline something??
ReplyDeleteCP- I found it...Not that I understand it!
ReplyDeleteGS - Made a pretty tight pincher, indicating the rally could be quite impressive.
ReplyDeleteADX is the Average Directional Index.
ReplyDelete2nd - Nice picture. Not like a mugshot. I assume you are out on bail or at least have home visits with the ankle constraint thig-a-ma-jig.
ReplyDeleteCp ... Advance - Decline Line line I can appreciate. ADX is one of those things I never heard of or if I did I ignored. Why do you like it?
ReplyDeleteI don't even own a jacket like 2nd's. Best I could muster is a shirt and tie.
ReplyDeleteillini - I'm working to comprehend this pincher stuff out. Actually, I like to follow the RSI's, they seem to work pretty well.
ReplyDeleteJacket shirt tie - The suit I was going to wear to last week's funeral had holes in it. I had forgotten to put it in a bag and I guess a moth had gotten to it.
ReplyDeleteHad to wear my backup suit, a visit to the seamstress was necessary for letting the waistline out.
Mark, you should think about having a suit handy.
RSI - Yeah, I like it too. BC's favorite, supposedly, yet in WIRs he shows something related but different on charts. PPO, I think. Weird? Confusing!
ReplyDeleteHere's another example of a recent pincher, note that it wasn't very tight, and so the dollar didn't rally very far:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$usd&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
CP- That's too funny. I had to go to a 'formal' wedding a few years back and grabbed the coat I wore for our wedding...You guessed it, holes galore!
ReplyDeleteCP - You must have a very available and speedy seamstress. I would be in the same predicament if something like that came up.
ReplyDeleteAnd a pincher for NKE:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=nke&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
CP- OK, are you talking about the first of April?...For NKE?
ReplyDeleteillini - It pays to have connections, and a spare.
ReplyDeleteI guess I need to go shopping for a replacement at some point soon.
NKE - Yeah, I think so, April 1st or something right in there.
ReplyDeleteHere's the CSCO chart with those parameters:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=csco&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
CP - You couldn't have picked a worst chart than CSCO for me to have nightmares tonight. Still holding the "value" from $19+. Mental stops failure. Maybe just mental failure, period.
ReplyDeleteEvery strategy has its day. And everyone has an opinion.
ReplyDeleteI could cherry pick the opinions that agree with my outlook, and I'd probably find at one 'guru' that agrees with it. Buy and hold? Let's start with my man Warren. Last time I checked, he was recommending stocks like WFC, which have since gotten trashed. His fund also took a major hit in 2008/09. So what?
CP- OK, Now I know what you are looking at. Let us know if this seems to have merit.
ReplyDeleteIllini- I had a CSCO bid in for 3K shares at 15.98 EOD. I found it interesting that the bid/ask at 16.00 was 1.9M/240K and filled through. Missed it by a penny. As far as I'm concerned based on volume/price, CSCO has found a tradeable bottom.
illini - CSCO - Yikes, sorry about that one. I read somewhere that their business model changes over the past so many years has set them back. I wasn't aware of their foray's into new areas.
ReplyDeletePlenty of gaps down that still need to fill on the chart, hopefully it's not a huge position and in time they can turn things around.
Then again, I thought the same thing with NOG.
ReplyDeleteShort's have been right on this one, 40%, that's crazy. What am I missing? Has to be a distrust in mang./reporting. The #'s look great. P/B for a E&P guy is nuts.
CP- Put your nose to NOG. Something seriously doesn't jive here. I smell $'s. I'll check with MOG.
ReplyDelete2nd- Dress down please, your making the rest of us nervous :)
ReplyDeleteillini- Almost every company I followed in the nineties went through periods like the one CSCO/INTC are experiencing right now. It's inevitable. In fact, both of them have been here before. Every single blue-chip stock I've ever thought about buying near its lows has struggled, then struggled some more, before finally/quickly taking off for the stratosphere. AMAT in the late nineties, for instance. It just takes patience. The strategy that best demonstrates the power of patience? Buy and hold.
ReplyDeleteThere will always be a credible 'story' to explain price declines in a company's stock. How else would you be able to buy it at bargain prices?
ReplyDeleteADX is a trend indicator. When it reaches 20 and above a stock is in a confirmed trend. Which could be either up or down. which could get confusing. CP how is using MACD+ ADX different then using DI- DI +.
ReplyDeleteGartman sells half his gold, presumably at the morning low:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-03/gartman-sells-50-of-gold-holding-after-decline-says-further-drop-likely.html
RB - "how is using MACD+ ADX different then using DI- DI +."
ReplyDeleteI have no idea, but feel free to take a stab at it! ;)
Gartman's timing calls suck and he is not that good of a trader.
ReplyDeleteHad his newsletter for over five years (soft dollar arrangement)and after two years barley read it, just scanned it. I have not read his letters since the beginning of the year.
Another term comes to mind, WINDBAG!
Mark, NOG has been accused of providing false or fraudulent resource reports. BEXP is the real deal NOG may not be. Stick with best in breed or possibly hedge your long in BEXP with a short of NOG. I was thinking of doing a pair trade like that.
ReplyDeletePoop I mean shit on NOG.
ReplyDeletehttp://thestreetsweeper.org/undersurveillance.html?i=1671
http://www.thestreetsweeper.org/undersurveillance.html?i=1665
RB- Hmmmm...Looks pretty shifty. Thanks. I wont even bother checking it out with MOG. It will be interesting to follow this though. Someone's going to wind up with shit on their face.
ReplyDeleteI suspect we will see a lot of volatility over the next month as more econ. data comes out. Maybe swing trade reports?
ReplyDeleteI went through the stocks in the Dow and could make a good case that every single one of them is reasonably to cheaply valued and a good buy.
ReplyDeleteBecause I go more smallcap, the only ones I own are DD (Dupont), WMT (Wal-mart) and a small CSCO (thanks to 2nd's recommendation).
People say why would you buy WMT or DD - look at their charts - they've done nothing for 15 years. But, WMT has increased sales, profits and dividends pretty much each of those years and DD is very well positioned for the AG and worldwide chemical boom and is also a good dividend payor.
Also, if anyone is interested in more info on MBAC Fertilizer (Brazil), they presented at the Scotia Fertilizer conference this week:
http://www.mbacfert.com/publicfiles/investorpresentations/Scotia%20Capital%20Global%20Fertilizer%20Conference%20June%202011.pdf
R-Bear nice find on NOG.
ReplyDeleteKyle, you asked about MWD, I forgot, I have a report on them give me your e-mail and I'll send it to you. I would post it here, but do not know to post pdf files at this site. Mark has has seen it maybe he could say if he thinks the report is worth your time.
Mark, FYI, May issue of AAII Journal has an article " How your buy and sell orders get filled." You may be interested since it has some reference to market makers.. You can probably get a 30 day trial at their site. If you do not want to do that, provide me your address and i'll make a copy and send to you.
Have a good weekend all.
NOG: There still could be huge spikes up in NOG. THey have/had over 30% short interest. The stock is tradeable on a short time frames. IMHO.
ReplyDeleteBB: Also i believe WMT announced a buy back of 7% of their float during one of the large down days, so the news did not move the stock. I think that could be the catalyst for a short term pop and obviously good news for price per share earnings growth.
ReplyDeletekNIFE CATCH ALERT. SNE Sony could it get any worse? Still make the best products!
ReplyDeleteOf coarse Mark and i said the same thing about NOK at 8. About -25% ago. CSCO is entering stupid cheap territory.
ReplyDeleteMan, it's raining/windy here like it would in Jan.
ReplyDeleteI am leaving for Bullhead. Should be 110 and windy. See you all next Thursday. I will not see the tape until then. Bold prediction.WE Will have two .03 % S+P up days on light volume and then a moderately down day that puts us right where we are at now at around 1300. Happy trails all.
ReplyDeleteI see WMT doing a lot of things right. Sure their US same-store sales are down, but overall revenues are up and they've pretty much saturated the US, so are expanding internationally. Seems the right thing to do, but the press ignores it. Now with the stock buyback, returning another $15 billion to shareholders.
ReplyDeleteBarron's this week saying S&P could double if things go well.
http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/markets/newsfeeditem.aspx?id=142552112298397
RB - save me a spot in Bullhead.
ReplyDeleteRain here too, catching up on Stocktwits TV, they have some excellent programs.
Just ran this Risk/Return report from Schwab for my accounts.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/EHZdtDoMn
I'm the green box.
Bro - holy moly, is it your plan to be that far out on the curve??
ReplyDeleteJB- Didn't really know I was, honestly. But for the past year or so, it's kinda been all or nothing. I'm sure only having a couple of big positions really distorts things:)
ReplyDeleteKinda fun to mess around with that stuff though.
ReplyDeleteI just asked for a Schwab rep to review/recommend changes! I can't wait until I hear back. LOL!
That should be funny, let us know what he/she has to say!
ReplyDeletegoing to initiate a position in XHB, looking for support, S3, @17.77.
ReplyDeleteYou all are catching the pineapple express. Yesterday it was raining sheets of water with thunder and electrical storms you would expect to see on the east coast.
ReplyDeleteLive your dream.
Alright you west coasters, its after 9:30 there and 7:30 here. We have not had a post since T3D over 8 hours ago. So I will reply to T3 first and say I never heard of the "pineapple express" but here in midwest the weather is still a bit stormy but getting hot too. 95 today.
ReplyDeleteAnd Mark, I read about the NOG success story followed by the revelations that it was a fairy tale. That was enough diligence for me. I won't touch it. Am not fond of the fundamentals of BEXP either. Lots of debt and USA oil production continues to decline overall. Why do you like it so much?
Am 75% cash and read today that Ritholz has moved down to 50% long and 30% cash. Rest is short Naz/SPX doubles. 500 Mil under mgmt. Is Barry of little faith?
Illini- BEXP/debit...That's what they do man. Just like REIT's. Leverage up for production returns. One thing important to make note of is the last 300M offering was over subscribed and NOT convertible, and a VERY competitive rate and 90% of the funds went to land acquisitions. NO liquidation for current shareholders which they easily could have done if the rate was too high. That tells me a lot..IE, new bond holders are confident of the return.
ReplyDeleteBEXP has the highest BOED of anyone in the Bakken. Some have claimed they leave the choke wide open which will in the LT hurt well rates, but I have yet to see that proven.
The biggest LT threat I see is EPA restrictions on Fracing. These plays are DEAD without it. After the last employment report, I'm MUCH less worried!
And most importantly, MOG knows Bud Brigham and stands on his call. Smartest Dude I've ever meet.
Current Port...
ReplyDelete20,000 shares of MITK
6,000 shares of BEXP
$480K cash.
And some lame miner BC recommended, LEXVF...10,000 shares that for the life of me I can't get rid of for a $3K loss. I swear, that was the last time I ever really read his comments. Must have been 5 months ago.
Don't forget to wake up for the French open final tomorrow.
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