Saturday, June 4, 2011
06/4/11 It Never Rains In California
Never heard of the Pineapple Express, illini?
I've pointed out several times that 99.9999% of the world's population know nada about market timing. 100% of them benefit from that knowledge deficit.
Fresh oysters from British Columbia. Roast 'kobe' pork. Chinese mustard greens.
Don't sweat the looming market drop. Nor the possibility it doesn't materialize. The real nightmare arrives in five years when CD-holders awaken to new all-time highs for the NDQ.
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PM's do well when real rates are negative, dollar still looks headed down to me.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.usfunds.com/investor-resources/investor-alert/
$INDU - New pincher beginning to form?
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$indu&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
PMI - A tight pincher:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=pmi&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
Troika 2011
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/06/global-investment-outlook-where-is-the-money-what-are-the-risks/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-need-to-take-a-chance-on-risk-2011-06-05?link=MW_latest_news
ReplyDeleteDavid- One of the best perspectives on why we all need to accept risk in the market. I'll take market risk over 'shortfall risk' any day.
Over the past week or so, my thinking has shifted towards compartmentalizing my retirement plans.
ReplyDeleteThe entire retirement portfolio being one of them. Is it really necessary to spend a ----load of time micro-managing it? Unlikely.
Another compartment, also in hands-off mode, is my residence. The value of my home will wax and wane over the next 15-20 years, and I don't plan to spend any time worrying about it.
The only compartments I should be actively managing: (a) my day job, (b) my side businesses, and (c) my kids- their education, their careers, their well-being.
I can't emphasize enough the point about market timing. The overwhelming majority of retirees succeed in reaching their goals without once trying to time the market.
In fact, I'm rapidly approaching the point where I have to ask- will the self-directed investing trend of the last 15-20 years turn out, in retrospect, to have been just another Boomer fad?
ReplyDeleteWill this blog join the vanguard of a trend-setting move away from the markets?
ReplyDeleteLet's move on to the next thing, guys. What might that be? I don't know, of course. But one place to look is away from where the crowd is looking.
ReplyDeleteI kind of suspect the Roaring Twenties might be the right direction.
The kind of companies/technology that take us there? That's what I want to know.
I have been retired for quite some time and do not invest for income. I live off my "defined benefit" pension, the kind of pension that is increasingly rare. My investment goals are more along the line of proving something for my children and grandchildren.
ReplyDeleteproviding, not "proving".
ReplyDeleteSorry, illini. I prefer the Freudian interpretation.
ReplyDeleteYes, I've read the WIR. No, it has no effect on my buy-and-hold posture.
ReplyDelete2nd- So BC is negative on risk here?
ReplyDeleteYou got it. I think he's dead wrong.
ReplyDeleteMay be of some interest tonight
ReplyDeletehttp://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/06/05/the-innovation-challenge-posed-by-china/
"...homegrown next generation wireless technology known as TD-SCMA, which would obviate the need of Chinese mobile carriers to continue paying royalties to the likes of the American company Qualcomm" and "Huawei...equipment that it has largely copied from the American company Cisco" looks interesting.
T3d -- Thanks much for the MDW pdf
Illini- Thought this might interest you...
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.forbes.com/timothysiegel/2011/06/04/where-will-growth-come-from-reducing-oil-imports/?partner=yahootix
Thanks Mark. The guy makes some good points and he says he is a value investor. Did you read his take on AKS (AK Steel), dated May 21. Friday there was quite a bit of activity in that stock.
ReplyDeleteNo, I'll go back and take a look Illini.
ReplyDeleteYep, it was active on Friday for a gain. Not many of those that day. I'll keep an eye on it.
Fri, Jun 3 2011
ReplyDeleteUPDATE 1-AK Steel stock up on speculation of news
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/03/aksteel-shares-idUSN0315055720110603?feedType=RSS&feedName=mergersNews&rpc=43
Re the self-directed investing trend of the last 20 years, I'd say, not it hasn't been a fad.
ReplyDeleteFor a lot of buy and hold or long term ( 1 - 3 year holding) swing traders, investors it has been a great way to improve returns. I read a book a few years ago about how the structure of mutual funds pretty much guaranteed they could not beat the market in the long run. the strikes against them were: fees, cost of holding cash for redemptions, being forced to buy high and sell low as cash flows increase after funds have gone up and redemptions increase after they have gone down, and a few more.
I think what will turn out to be a fad is the individual high-frequency day-trading type players.
In Canada, where we've had a good market the last 10 years averaging 6.6% a year, people have done very well buying stocks. You've suffered through a major bear market the last 10 years and I think you are going to start reaping the rewards of this and I am moving my investments to take advantage of this.
Lots of good, cheap companies in the US now.
NFX. Another MOG fav. Just started working on it.
ReplyDeleteFor those who dis gold, put this in your pipe.
ReplyDeleteThe big difference is that the inherent value of the paper euros or dollars will fluctuate in response to the changes in those currencies' values against other forms of paper money, and all currencies must decline in purchasing power inexorably in response to longer-term inflation. According to our favorite skeptic on Received Wisdom, Stephanie Pomboy of MacroMavens, the S&P's performance since 2000 deflated by the gold price move in that time is a minus 82%, compared to the more reassuring nominal return.
Don Coxe
ELT - Chart is kinda all over the place, but should do well if the euro should weaken?
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I noticed behind the newly built local shopping center, that our power company had installed ELT's electrical power meters.
PKX - Looks pretty cheap to me, under $100
ReplyDeleteGuys I just got done moving this weekend...moving into a slightly bigger house across town...jjust catching up on the comments. Great posts...2nd you mentioned something about new trends etc...well how about mobile computing? And drilling down further...MITK?
ReplyDelete"I kind of suspect the Roaring Twenties might be the right direction.
ReplyDeleteThe kind of companies/technology that take us there? That's what I want to know."
John Mauldin claims to read hundreds of articles every week and speak to very smart money managers. His feeling is that biotech is going to be the next bubble, and a year ago he mentioned that he is buying select biotech companies himself.
Biotech definitely, I hear there's some amazing stuff in the pipeline.
ReplyDeleteToo bad I don't know a damn thing about it.
Greece selling assets? - I wonder if Soros is over there buying up museums and other public property for pennies on the dollar...
ReplyDeletegood morning guys, today should be the last day of rain and then we'll be on track for a 100+ soon.
ReplyDeleteLooking for an entry in XHB. I like the chart (daily and weekly) plus it will only take the smallest bit of decent news on the fundie front to make this sucker pop....I think!
Telestar3d,
ReplyDeleteWouldn't you rather be buying something that's down 82% instead of up 82%?
Been reading Don Coxe for 10 years and he has had a great call on the commodities boom, but my personal observation is that when he gets too cocky on things, that's a good sign we are getting close to a hsort term top.
Also, look at his Coxe Commodity Fund (COX.UN in Toronto). Now, he did bring this public later than he wanted to due to stock market filing requirements, but he did come public pretty near the 2008 top and still hasn't recovered.
Not saying he is not right, but a lot of people I talk with now think gold can only go one way because we've had a 10 year bull market, but conveniently forget about the 17 year bear market before that where gold went from $850 to $250.
2000 share stinky on MITK @ S2/6.30
ReplyDeleteAn oldie but a goodie...CPST upgrade @ FRB PT 2.70.
ReplyDeleteThe election in Peru is being hard on oil stock BPZ. The Soros boys are into this one, at least they were.
ReplyDeleteTLT - Perhaps the shorts have finished covering by now?
ReplyDeleteBAC...I guess the question now is will 10.88 hold.
ReplyDeleteJB- I agree on XHB...However, I'd wait a few weeks if this is a swing trade. 17.47ish??
Hey bro - still messing with the entry, will make a note of 17.47....thx!
ReplyDeleteBEXP, etc.? - Williston county roads shut down to heavy truck traffic due to flooding.
ReplyDeleteCould be old news and probably is. Not saying this is having any effect, just news in case you weren't aware.
http://www.willistonherald.com/articles/2011/06/05/news/doc4deabcc53441c894054806.txt
Not sure what this means, but if I wasn't actively trading BEXP, I wouldn't enter here based on it's chart.
ReplyDeleteFCX - Nicely green, hanging onto it's 200SMA. A move that captures the 150SMA would be nice.
ReplyDeleteBAC - Come on $3!!!
ReplyDeleteStrategic Diagnostics Inc. (SDIX).... Just entered this tiny micro cap at 2.26 with a starter position of 1500. They were a naz vol leader Friday on growing sales. This year they have a new product approved that detects salmonella faster and cheaper than others.
ReplyDeleteGPL - Come on baby, you can do it!!! Come on, come on, come on now!!!!
ReplyDeleteSDIX - Maybe soon they'll offer a product that detects antibiotic resistant e-coli in German bean sprouts...
ReplyDeletee. coli - Oh now I get it, this will be a slam on organic produce growers...
ReplyDeleteI read that there were cows in a pasture next to the organic farm in Germany.
ReplyDeleteWhipping it around today.
ReplyDeleteCows - No doubt they were inorganic cows pumped up with antibiotics and steroids.
ReplyDelete"Whipping it around today."
ReplyDeleteMark, stop playing with your thingy and pay attention for once! Not the time to be getting jiggy with it!
Looking for that Ronco trade: "Set it and forget it."
ReplyDeleteI can't help but think that anything shorting this market needs to get their head checked.
ReplyDeleteerr...anyone that is
ReplyDeleteBB asked, Wouldn't you rather be buying something that's down 82% instead of up 82%?"
ReplyDeleteNot necessarily, it depends on the specifics of the situation. Why is the company down -82% and is it heading to zero. Conversely, why is a stock up 82% and do the fundamentals show the opportunity has another 300% ahead of it.
So as a rule, do I want to buy stocks down 82% and sell stocks up 82%? No, many times there is a really good reason why stocks are down like that.
Now if you find really high quality stocks down 80% due to factors of de-leverage like what happened in 2008, the answer is yes.
I'm cognizant of the fact that it is not unusual for stocks to move 30-50% in either direction and be quite normal. So I think that a stock down 50% has less downside risk. I would go so far as say it likely your worst downside from there is 30% which would basically be your -82% target.
Gun to head, I would always pick strong trending stocks to invest in with buying pullbacks of those stocks as a preferred entry or accumulation method. Flexibility is key to survival in the market, to me. Please keep in mind that I’m a ST/swing trader primarily and this come from this perspective.
BTW, BB, I really enjoy your posts.
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ReplyDeleteHell, those electrical storms took out my Apple computer when we lost power, sucks. This is the computer that I kept live gold, silver, oil and copper charts on. I miss that visual.
ReplyDeleteCADC - Only up +16% today, wonder what's wrong there???
ReplyDeleteBloomberg ...... "Natural Gas Gains in New York on ‘Big Burst’ of Hot Weather in U.S. East"
ReplyDeleteGettin hot this weak in Illinois but were mostly coal.
Shorting the market - Agreed, not a good time to short, the time to have done that was 1360.
ReplyDeleteBut it looks like shorts are taking certain liberties anyway. Maybe they cover soon, or maybe we test the 200SMA???
MITK news: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Mitek-Systems-Granted-Four-prnews-1197812865.html?x=0&.v=1
ReplyDeleteBEXP - Mark, where are you looking to add? I have an embarrassing stinky at $23, but seriously doubt that will ever fill... More like I was gonna add to GPL but that hasn't dropped low enough either.
ReplyDeleteBEXP- Just did CP. 27.60. 1000 shares.
ReplyDeleteBEXP- Itty bitty gap fill @ 27.50.
ReplyDelete1000 BEXP @ 27.47 on the gapper...
ReplyDeleteBEXP - $23 Now I remember where that number came from; the open gap from early November last year.
ReplyDeleteGDX/GDXJ....Crikes.
ReplyDelete1260 is in play, no question about it.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Would it be a material change for MITK if BAC/WFC/JPM went belly up? Sure looks like it today.
ReplyDeleteSPY breaks S2...Lot's of selling here.
ReplyDeleteMark > Ha...yeah I would call that a material change.
ReplyDeleteI bought a whopping 2 x SPY Calls just now when SPY dipped to $129.25 Bought 2 x SPY June 30 $128 Calls at $2.67 avg
Bought 2 more SPY Calls just now...I like the odds of a bounce to the 1,340 level once again.
ReplyDeleteGoin' for a sleigh ride! Wwwwweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!
ReplyDelete1340? Wow, how soon? I see 1260 first.
ReplyDeletea bounce right here in the SPY would be cool, and needed as far as I am concerned, otherwise it's a fast fall to 126.70
ReplyDeleteMark > Well hopefully before 6/30! Seriously, though, I see a lot of volatility for the next 60-90 days and I'm getting bored sitting in MITK so I figured I would try to make a short term trade while watching the market. I think it's pretty standard to see 6 to 10% drops from time to time in the market...we're down 6% right now from the top.
ReplyDelete1000 BEXP @ 27.13. That's it, I promise!!
ReplyDeleteTOF- Yeah, I still think 1260 first. So why am I buying so much BEXP? Plan on peeling off those shares on moderate strength. Maybe .50 per 1000.
ReplyDelete1261 is EMA 200 which is LT resistance, target or the next magnetic attraction line, however you are inclined to see it.
ReplyDeleteWeiner....After all that, you've got to be kidding me. What an ass.
ReplyDeleteIs it me, or does it seem like equities and the dollar are becoming positively correlated?
ReplyDeleteINTC - Anyone see that open gap down @ $23???
ReplyDeleteNot to mention the huge open gap up mid April...
ReplyDeleteWhich fills first?