Thursday, June 2, 2011
06/02/11 Somebody loan me a dime
Sitting with my back against the wall of worry. A bro nodding off on my right. A sister on my left, splashing Thunderbird on my sleeve ("What's the word? Thunderbird / How's it sold? Good and cold / What's the jive? Bird's alive / What's the price? Thirty twice.")
Doing time on the street.
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Make it a dime bag, yo.
ReplyDeleteLemme (re)call my used-to-be...
ReplyDeleteDamn 2nd, you often leave me with a stranded post. Re UNG:USO.
ReplyDeleteillini said...
ReplyDeleteLook at UNG:USO as a proxy for the energy equivalent ratio of the price of NG relative to oil. It's still very low because of shale gas. I know, I know, UNG is an imperfect impersonator for the price of NG but I have found the ratio to be a good relative indicator. FD: I don't own any oil or gas now, which is unusual. FWIW and not much else.
June 2, 2011 6:37 PM
illini - I usually catch those stranded posts, FWIW. I bet most do.
ReplyDeleteYou still have a fairly nice mugshot but when are you going to move on to a pic after or during solitude. Or is that disallowed?
ReplyDeleteDuring.
ReplyDeleteS&P - Boy that candlestick from yesterday sure looks pretty ominous. Can it be that yet another ominous candlestick reliably predicts yet another selloff or is this one a fakeout?
ReplyDeleteillini, 2nd took both his cars to the dealership and the parts have not yet arrived from Japan!
ReplyDeleteLuckily I have only one car, a 2007 Honda Civic, and I do not put on many miles. No need for parts yet except oil filters.
ReplyDeleteYeah, amazingly enough I don't usually put more than 3,000 mi on the clock during the year either. Unless I go on a road trip, then it could easily triple.
ReplyDeleteAnd that's a total for all my vehicles, all six of them...
ReplyDeleteMy son did have a big delay on engine parts for an older Acura a couple years ago. Imagine what that might be like now. I have no idea.
ReplyDeleteSix cars! Astounding. That would drive me bonkers. Shades of Jay Leno? Course,he can afford it.
ReplyDeleteChange "cars" to "vehicles".
ReplyDeleteTop to the RE craze? National Geographic article marks the spot?
ReplyDeletehttp://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/06/rare-earth-elements/folger-text
Yeah, I find selling a cumbersome task, LOL. You may have noticed.
ReplyDeleteMr. 2 Americas, John Edwards is going to be charged tomorrow with fraud.
ReplyDeletePittance compared to the fraud he committed against his wife and family.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/272973-new-jobless-claims-post-modest-decline-room-for-optimism
ReplyDeleteI agree with Yardeni...once this soft patch, which is associated with the Japanese quake and other natural disasters in my opinion, clears we will zoom higher. Remember, valuations based on earnings plus cash on hand make stocks very cheap should the economy continue to grow.
6 here, total, too. But that includes my Daughter's that I just bought her (to replace my beater car that got totaled ($1k damage) while she was borrowing it). It also includes the race car and tow van.
ReplyDeleteIt sounds like a lot, but all but one of them were less than $10k purchase price, and only 2 were purchased recently (replacing 130k+ and 150k+ worn out beaters), and the rest we've had 10+ years, so its not like we spend a lot on cars.
Sold a big chunk of metal tonight to raise cash. It was enough for a house on the gulf with a dock for a 40 ft boat, or enough to be cashed up in event we get a complete panic, which at the moment, I'd give very good odds unless the Fed restarts the presses, puts them on overdrive, and feeds them fuel spiked with nitromethane.
I don't even pretend to have a clue which poison they choose, but my bet is they print, even if they lie and tell us otherwise...
From Marketwatch - "China likely to opt for faster rise in yuan"
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-likely-to-opt-for-faster-rise-in-yuan-2011-06-03
This is great news and is required to reduce the current world imbalances which are responsible for a lot of the world's problems.
A higher yuan will result in increased American competitiveness and more American jobs.
Bought a garden hose holder last night - pretty average, could have been made anywhere, but interestingly, made in America. That's a job for someone that's come back.
Awesome news, dudes.
ReplyDeleteThis takes us closer to the requisite negativity.
Some thoughts from Steve Grasso et al....
ReplyDeleteto buy this market given the fact NO ONE had a clue as to the ISM,, ADP,, EMPLYMENT DATA is foolish .
$spx 1226 kiss within weeks... Overshoot 1243 to downside, mkt 'expected' bounce next week will fail; ur levels 2 watch r 1294 libya bottom 1275 egypt bottom 1257 flat on yr there is a 1285 ish speed bump in there as well , look 2 sell rallies
http://twitter.com/#!/GrassoSteve
Steve Grasso - Not buying dips has been a mistake for the past couple of years. Something has changed, I suppose...
ReplyDeleteKyle- Yes, that's another opinion. Many out there. I'm happy with mine.
ReplyDeleteWell, the dollar is even lower this morning than last evening, so I guess we're throwing the baby out with the bath water.
ReplyDeleteSeeing if I can pick up some trading shares in MITK.
ReplyDeleteBidding 3K @ 6.50.
Make that 6.45 on S2.
ReplyDeleteOne of my opinions right now, btw, is that it's impossible to predict ST moves. That's from at least 5 years of trying, with some success. Even then (and there seems to be consensus on this), the batting average for most of us is <0.500, and the only thing that saves us is 'cutting losses quickly + letting winners run.' I just can't get into that kind of daily grind right now.
ReplyDeleteTo put some perspective on the jobs numbers this morning which everyone seems to be portraying as very negative:
ReplyDelete"The jobs report was poor, but no reason to panic. The uncertainty encouraged business to work exiting workers harder/longer, rather than hire new workers. Poor data only glimmer of hope is that the work week increased, which is equivalent in output of around 400k full time jobs and hourly earnings rose, which may help underpin consumption. Still little good in the report and revisions. In addition, the hurricanes in the midwest and Japan suply chain disruptions must be seen as temportary in nature. Data is disappointing, but no reason not to suspect a bounce back this month."
Outside chance we close green. 5:1. Horn bet.
ReplyDelete2nd,
ReplyDeleteagree with you on short term moves, especially with the computing power you are up against now.
Do think you can do better than buy and hold if you are willing to do some moderate level of trading, but in my experience you have to do this based on trying to understand valuations and buy cheap / sell expensive than on chart reading.
"do this based on trying to understand valuations and buy cheap / sell expensive"
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely, you've got to get that part right first and foremost, else you'll position yourself on the wrong side of risk.
BEXP - Today's strategy could've been to buy the dip and sell the gap close.
ReplyDeleteLater players!
ReplyDeleteIYR - LOL!
ReplyDeleteNBG - Swimming upstream...
ReplyDeleteYeah, good potential news out of Greece.
ReplyDeleteLike I said before, NBG is really cheap here assuming the Greek government doesn't default or something.
Still not adding to my position though as I've seen this bounce from them many times and then it keeps going down. One of these times, ti will continue up and I'll have missed the low, but too many undefined risks to make a big bet here.
BEXP - Out @ 29.20 with a 9+% gain, maybe I'll get lucky at buying back lower...
ReplyDeleteBEXP - I see an open gap up from early November lat year, I'm targeting with a buy order. It's just incredible to me how commodities prices are falling along with the dollar, there's a spring being wound here...
ReplyDeleteMaybe Bernanke finally called a few bankers and ordered them to sell the commodities they bought with our money he provided them...
ReplyDeleteSPY @ S2.
ReplyDeleteNo way out, guys. We need to hit some kind of Skid Row bottom. Monitoring my own emotional reactions to price declines is one way to gauge the process.
ReplyDeleteMoving my MITK order to 6.56.
ReplyDeleteHave you local guys seen the PG&E smart meeter commercials? What's up with the freaky dudes in them??
ReplyDeleteOkay, so buy and hold is dead like Kevorkian?
ReplyDeleteSmart meters - Do they mention the manufacturer?
ReplyDeletebad combo: first official day of unemployment and 5 down weeks in a row in the market. good thing my vacation accrual check came today.
ReplyDeleteShould I pop that sucker right into the trading account???
BEXP - Check out this chart and note the tight pincher of the ADX/MACD that formed, indicative of the recent low...
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=bexp&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
SPY - This chart also shows that same ADX/MACD pincher formation indicative of the recent low:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=spy&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
GMO - This chart shows that pattern as well, just not as tight, indicative of a weaker rally attempt:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=gmo&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
CP- Explain 'note the tight pincher of the ADX/MACD that formed, indicative of the recent low...'
ReplyDeleteNever heard anything like that before...Also, What is ADX?
JB- Just spend it!!
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteCADC - Developed a pincher as well:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=cadc&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736