Thursday, July 21, 2011

07/21/11 12949 1372



The above numbers flashed across my cell, and I found myself channeling Nicholas Cage. Probably just random numbers. Just saying.

81 comments:

  1. So regarding CTCT > There is a long term trend line that comes into play from the late 2008 lows all the way until now....if you are patient you might get in there, which is around $20-$21. Then you can use that as a stop out point. Personally I just don't see how the company can do bad longer term. I see every reason for it to be a $5 Billion company in a few years given how many customers they have and their business model.

    Man this MITK is one helluva stock huh? I'm quickly falling behind on my plan to get back in with the same shares at a lower cost basis. It seems overbought but it did at $8. Maybe this will be a $1 Billion company this year?

    ReplyDelete
  2. MITK - Looks like it could hit a wall anytime with a bounce back to follow. $10 + small change could be it. Gone up very fast on volume. Nasdaq effect? 20 day EMA at $8.09 and rising steeply. 63 day way back at $7.01. I'm still hanging in with 500 @ $6.02 but wishing I had not sold out of a somewhat larger position so soon a couple of times. Buy and hold lives! BTW, guys like me do not have as large a portfolio as you west coasters and I do not usually gamble with penny stocks. Guess that may be why I am not rich in my old age, just slightly comfortable. Even that could end if the debt ceiling is not raised.

    ReplyDelete
  3. MITK. NLS. Short SPY. Long FAS. Just the latest in your long string of winning calls, bro.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Maybe you should start a hedge fund.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Let's say Obama is able to announce something Friday. That might lend meaning to those random numbers.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I would be the first investor in that hedge fund!

    ReplyDelete
  7. It's the Gilroy Garlic Festival again this weekend. We may drive down. Has anyone been to one of those?

    ReplyDelete
  8. David- That's the beauty of this blog. Just follow tof's lead.

    ReplyDelete
  9. 2nd- Put it this way. It's worth the drive from your house. Mine, probably not.

    ReplyDelete
  10. New YTD highs on US indexes tomorrow, anyone?

    ReplyDelete
  11. Anything recommendations in particular, Mark?

    ReplyDelete
  12. btw, guys. We all know there are no real steakhouses in the Bay Area. Except Alfred's in SF. I plan to check it out with a few colleagues later this summer. My last visit was my Dad's birthday in 2006/07.

    http://www.alfredssteakhouse.com/menus.html

    ReplyDelete
  13. SIFY/REDF...What happens when the momo boys get spooked.

    2nd- The food is great, and it is fun as long as it's not too hot and this weekend looks great. Go for it.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Garlic Festival - Don't know about that one but here is something more pungent in SW Illinois from WikiPed:

    Commercial production
    Although grown in many regions of the world, Collinsville, Illinois, is the self-proclaimed "Horseradish Capital of the World" and hosts an annual International Horseradish Festival each June. Collinsville produces 60%, and the surrounding area of southwestern Illinois 25% (a total, for the area, of 85%), of the world's commercially grown horseradish. Other major US growing regions include Wisconsin and Tulelake, California. Apart from these US areas, horseradish is also produced in Europe[7] and South Australia.[8]

    ReplyDelete
  15. I did follow TOF's leads into REDF and MITK, and I keep thanking him for these in my mind!

    ReplyDelete
  16. REDF is a compelling argument for day trading.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Seriously, new YTD highs in the US indexes by Friday July 29 is not only possible, it probably hit even odds in Vegas today.

    ReplyDelete
  18. If no one else here is to contribute to the other blog today, may I add "Happy Birthday Bill" from all of us. Finis!

    ReplyDelete
  19. Wish him one for me ILLI I have not been over there since my George Soros is god post! I like Bill his blog is just too boring. How long can you go on about gold and the fed and pomo. Three years straight. Maybe i should do one final TOF is God of trading post and of coarse add gold is a short just to get some views. Really not kidding about TOF:).

    ReplyDelete
  20. It takes a big man to announce his birthday on his blog. And to acknowledge all the H-B's posted?

    ReplyDelete
  21. NBG (National Bank of Greece) had a good rally yesterday and continuing into today. Am down almost 50% on this one, so may not be the best to comment, but think this is a $10 stock at some point assuming things gets fixed in a reasonable manner. Definitely could go to $0 if things fall apart, but these types of things pretty much always seem to muddle through and work out OK.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Thanks for the compliments guys but everyone goes on a good stretch and I suspect mine will end soon.

    I'm probably going to be closing some or all of my FAS today in part because it's up 15% but also because I see some resistance coming up in the market and I am really warming up to just buying and holding CTCT.

    RE: MITK > I convinced my boss to buy the stock...he bought 135k shares at $6.50. Needless to say I told him I deserve a raise, now that he is up over $400k

    ReplyDelete
  23. TOF, Your boss must have a lot of faith in your stock-picking to put almost $1 million into a stock. I'd ask for the raise and a promotion!

    Government of Greece bonds up 20$ this week. Hoping it's the bottom and not just another headfake.

    ReplyDelete
  24. You know, it's extremely difficult for day traders holding multiple positions to manage positions. INTC sold off on earnings, yet is now catching a bid amidst a general sell off. Just one example of how buy-and-hold can help keep you sane.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Forget the raise/promotion. Just start the hedge fund and take a percentage of the profits. You already have one client able to give you at least 7 figures to trade.

    ReplyDelete
  26. A pullback today is perfect for longs. Sets more bear traps thinking 1,344 was a top.

    ReplyDelete
  27. BB > Interesting call on NBG. I might have to take a flier on that one. The partial default might be the final impetus to get this thing going. Typically defaults result in the end of a crisis and a great buying point.

    ReplyDelete
  28. CTCT- Looked into this one last night again. I guess what I'm missing is a catalyst?

    ReplyDelete
  29. SIFY- I'll never doubt the MOMO boys again.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Quite please. Obama is on and we never get to hear from him...

    ReplyDelete
  31. TOF - Wondering if you and others have skipped out of COOL. Thanks.

    lmm

    ReplyDelete
  32. Gilroy - Try the garlic ice cream. I had to park a few blocks away and walk for some reason, don't recall why or much else.

    ReplyDelete
  33. What did the big "O" have to say, I missed it?

    ReplyDelete
  34. Hey Imm > Yeah I took my money and ran with COOL...was only trading a setup on that one. Also, with the Parking Wars II game out on Facebook and it being possibly the worst game I've ever played, I have no desire to get back in, even though Zumba Fitness continues to sell really well. My thinking is that the sentiment that this is a one trick pony will not fade away until they can get something else going, preferably a Facebook game.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Thanks TOF. Much appreciate your and others discussion on this blog.

    ReplyDelete
  36. I haven't been following the charade of the debt ceiling discussions up until now, but now that you guys mentioned Obama speaking, I decided to check out the news on this topic. Here is an excerpt I found at Yahoo:

    "So with less than two weeks to go before the Aug. 2 deadline set by Treasury Secretary Geithner, our elected officials seem unable to come up with a compromise — grand or otherwise — to avoid a default — technical or otherwise — and the potential financial market upheaval that may result."

    Isn't this the same Tim Geithner who was rewriting accounting rules on the fly in 2008/2009? So do you guys really believe that US is up against some strict deadline to resolve the debt issue? It is all a charade to convince the public that the issue is really tough and justify the whatever silly proposal they finally come up with.

    ReplyDelete
  37. It looks to me like the Chinese accounting fears are getting old and stale. SORL had an amazing recovery over the past month, CAAS caught up on all its reports today, CADC seems to be in an uptrend over the past month. Or maybe all this is happening because HAO (Chinese small caps ETF) has bottomed in mid-June and seems to have put a higher low on July 19.

    So I just bought 1000 more shares of CADC at $1.87 -- supposedly I waited for the downtrend to stop and reverse before adding to my position (I now have 3000 shares at the average cost of $2.09).

    ReplyDelete
  38. David the bond market seems to have little fear of a default.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Just to repeat again an interesting fact about CADC (and explain why I bought CADC today) is that the company has a large number of warrants outstanding at the price of $2.40 with an expiration in June 2013, and the *change* in the fair value of these warrants was recently accounting for around 1/3 of their quarterly EPS. So if CADC stays below $2.40 for 2 years, these warrants expire worthless and the company will be relieved of a large liability. Hence, CADC won't stay below $2.40 for a long time...

    ReplyDelete
  40. Big game of chicken on the debt ceiling now, but no-one wants it to go past August 2nd.


    Been in negotiations with customers like that who will play hardball like crazy and will give no sign of being willing to compromise until they feel they've gotten everything out of you they can.

    Like Buffet said a couple of weeks ago on CNBC, negotiating deals under this kind of time pressure does not generally result in the best solution. Better just to pass the increase, then start working on the budget, but not much seems to get done in Washington without a crisis (from my view in Canada).

    ReplyDelete
  41. SVM - Off @ $11.53, waiting for the headfake pullback.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Too funny. I just got back and didn't realize you guys were talking about COOL. Just a short trade for me.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Are you guys buying CADC now? It is shooting up after my post. :)

    ReplyDelete
  44. Too bad CAAS was sold after what seemed like a positive initial response to its earnings...

    ReplyDelete
  45. David- Debt ceiling...I agree. It's just a bunch of BS. Our Gov. is basically unfunctional. Makes me want to puke.

    Glad your back. Kinda missed the Chinese stock stuff.

    ReplyDelete
  46. In case no one noticed...Nasdaq broke out today. Look at all of these laggard Nasdaq stocks rocking today:

    CSCO
    HPQ
    AKAM
    CREE

    ReplyDelete
  47. Man, should have bought much more CADC at $1.87 today -- it was such an obvious buy, both fundamentally and technically... It is up to $2.05 already...

    ReplyDelete
  48. I just placed a sell limit order for 1000 shares of CADC at $2.80, which is the price at which I acquired my first lot of 1000 shares. The two remaining lots have the average price of $1.70, and I'll try to keep them for more than a year so as to book a long-term capital gain on them.

    ReplyDelete
  49. I decided to cancel my "sell to open" limit order for 10 GMO covered calls -- this stock cannot lose over a long term, and there is no reason to get out of this stock now, even if I can do it with some gain. Buy and hold!

    ReplyDelete
  50. TOF- You didn't mention the biggest lagger...MU.

    ReplyDelete
  51. INT - Nice rally, I'd have to take that one off the table.

    ReplyDelete
  52. "Glad your back. Kinda missed the Chinese stock stuff."

    I have more stories, Mark. :)

    Here is a sad one: both the CEO and the CFO of WATG resigned recently. I have $30K locked in that stock at $5.42 and there are good chances now that the stock will never resume its trading...

    ReplyDelete
  53. David- I meant to say, missed the move without you here. Sorry about WATG.

    CADC popped up on Twits.

    ReplyDelete
  54. David - Good job on CADC. Well done!

    Man I hate to hear that about WATG, especially given that I brought this up on the board. I was stopped out of that thing last summer and never re-entered. I can't imagine having that happen to you.

    I personally have 100% of my money in FAS so I don't have much room to put anything anywhere else. I am getting the sense that the financials are stalling before another move higher.

    CTCT: I'm still doing research on this. I didn't realize how much competition this sucker has. And how many people are shorting it (30% of the float is short). Crazy. Their financials are great, though, and I like using their service for our business. The question remains: are they a buy?

    NLS: I still really like this stock longer term. I think it's risk-reward is really good at this price. I can see a scenario where the economy continues to improve, housing recovers, jobs come back, and NLS is up to $15 to $20/share. With a nice amount of cash and no debt, I think there's definitely worse beaten down stocks to put money in.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Even a record heat wave can't unfreeze DC...

    ReplyDelete
  56. IMM- Hi and welcome if your new!

    ReplyDelete
  57. AG - Not as cheap as it was, but still relatively cheap?

    ReplyDelete
  58. GMO- http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/general-moly-molybdenum-commodities-rare-eath/7/22/2011/id/35888?camp=syndication&medium=portals&from=yahoo

    ReplyDelete
  59. AKAM - Breakout and rally into July 27 earnings?

    ReplyDelete
  60. Actually I was wrong about the Nasdaq breaking out. QQQ did for a short period but not the index.

    ReplyDelete
  61. Might join you in FAS over the weekend. Imbalances on the buy side for financials and today's action was bullish too me.

    ReplyDelete
  62. All right, I just bought 1000 more shares of CADC at $2.02 and placed a sell limit order for these shares at $2.37. The 6-month chart for CADC suggests that a run up to $2.40 has a very high probability in the next few days.

    ReplyDelete
  63. On the good side, I am glad that CAAS was not sold into the red today. Maybe it will try to make another lift off tomorrow?

    ReplyDelete
  64. Thank you kindly, MarkW. Have been visiting the blog for some months. Mostly buy and hold with etfs. Occasional small trades ($3 to 5K) based on ideas at this site. Enjoy the various viewpoints and the back and forth.

    ReplyDelete
  65. "Good call CP."

    Yeah, that one only yielded a 5% gain, but I'll take it!

    GMO - The water permits aren't granted till we get past the 3M acceptance, maybe soon if things go our way. The May county meeting minutes referred to this subject, still nobody seems to know the details of yesterday's meeting.

    ReplyDelete
  66. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/beginning-of-the-end-of-the-entire-crisis-2011-07-15?link=MW_home_latest_news

    look at these comments...i've been reading posts to articles like this (i.e., positive ones) for over two years now. it's almost comical how people hate the possibility of good news

    ReplyDelete
  67. As Birinyi says: the negative story is always more articulate.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Saw a good article on chinese stock investment.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/280146-what-to-consider-before-investing-in-china-and-other-emerging-markets

    With risk comes the opportunity.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Have had the best two week period in memory (8.2%)and haven't made a sale. Now the challenge is to hold that gain and let it grow while collecting dividends from a few stocks.

    My upsurge is due to A) Buying into shale oil prior to the BHP buyout of HK B) Buying SLV at $35.51 (all done on Monday July 11) and C) MITK listing on NASDAQ (small position but mighty stock, thanks ToF). CSCO has also contributed but RBY has been a negative.

    ReplyDelete
  70. This past week CSCO has doubled (or more) the performance of NAZ, SPX and JNPR. All are up but CSCO 6%.

    ReplyDelete