Sunday, July 31, 2011

07/31/11 Candy



The betting window is open in Vegas. My take:

(a) At least 3tt. Probably higher.
(b) To spark the sluggish US economy (I have no idea whether it's sluggish or not, but the 1.3% zinger made a timely appearance last week, and as well all know, it's all about perception), there will be no new taxes, and any news re spending cuts will (i) come as a relief, and (ii) remain 'vague' (ie, it will manage to keep bears at bay while new highs are breached).
(c) Asia rallies hard on the news.

Thanks to CP for the metaphor.
Posted by at

79 comments:

  1. ChickenpookieJuly 31, 2011 at 9:54 AM

    "Cp - so buy sgg on qe3?"

    LOL, no! Buy SGG May7th, 2011! ;)

    The double top target on the chart points to $25, that would be my entry if the world came crashing down. I have to agree that sounds crazy and ridiculous, doesn't it?

    Otherwise, you're completely on your own with SGG. ;)

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  2. ChickenpookieJuly 31, 2011 at 9:55 AM

    VE - Sure took a dive last session...

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  3. ChickenpookieJuly 31, 2011 at 10:02 AM

    So where to from here, inquiring minds want to know? Are we really crashing from a sugar high?

    I have no idea but while we're on the subject, gimme another fix man, I'm Jonesin' over here! ;)

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  4. 2nd_aveJuly 31, 2011 at 10:41 AM

    Speaking of Vegas, here's an interesting anecdote re Reid:

    'Reid then served as chairman of the Nevada Gaming Commission from 1977 to 1981. When Jack Gordon, (LaToya Jackson's future agent and husband), offered a $12,000 bribe to get Reid to approve new games for casinos, Reid brought in the FBI to tape Gordon's bribery attempt and arrest him. After FBI agents interrupted the transaction as prearranged, Reid lost his temper and began choking Gordon, saying "You son of a bitch, you tried to bribe me!" Gordon was convicted in 1979 and sentenced to six months in prison.[1] In 1981, Reid's wife found a bomb attached to the family station wagon; Reid suspected it was placed by Gordon.[1]'

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  5. ChickenpookieJuly 31, 2011 at 12:54 PM

    TC - Looks like a safe entry to me, especially considering molybdenum target is $17 by Halloween.

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  6. ChickenpookieJuly 31, 2011 at 1:21 PM

    LECO - I don't know the details of these acquisitions or what the immediate effect is likely to be and not knowing if they overpaid, but long term and assuming the global economy doesn't fall off a cliff, I love the sound of these.

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  7. ChickenpookieJuly 31, 2011 at 2:40 PM

    SGG - "Bullish sugar bets climbed to the highest since February 2010."

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-31/funds-lift-bullish-commodity-bets-to-six-week-high-as-silver-holdings-jump.html

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  8. illiniJuly 31, 2011 at 2:49 PM

    LECO - They are a fine company, you might say world class with manufacturing in 41 countries.

    http://www.lincolnelectric.com/en-us/company/Pages/lincoln-worldwide.aspx

    I owned some a few years back.

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  9. AnonymousJuly 31, 2011 at 3:09 PM

    CP > I'm kidding man...that ain't my style to buy on strength...a strong stock maybe but a strong stock on strength? that's a recipe for disaster. SGG is one volatile mofo

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  10. AnonymousJuly 31, 2011 at 3:14 PM

    http://caracommunity.com/sites/default/files/snp_prediction_2011.jpg

    That's my prediction

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  11. AnonymousJuly 31, 2011 at 4:07 PM

    I read through the RAS quarterly report and call notes and found some really positive things, but on the flip side I found some disturbing things on the quarterly and in the annual report that make me hesitant to invest in them. Primarily, I just wonder about the competence of management more than anything. Here are my notes:

    POSITIVES:
    *Rental Income - Up 25% over last year; Up $4.4 MM this quarter and $10 MM YTD
    *Occupancy Rates - Up from 74% to 83%
    *Real Estate Op Exp - Up $400k from last year
    *Operating Income (net of exp) - Up $4MM over last year
    *Interest Exp - 9% lower than last year
    *Compensation Exp - 18% lower than last year
    *G&A Exp - 8% lower than last year despite the incremental costs associated with the acquisition and launch of Independence Realty Trust this year
    *Loan Loss Provisions - down $2.9 Million (about 10%) versus last year due to improvements in CRE loan portfolio
    *Operating Income total $4.4 Million versus -$4.6 Million last year ($9 Million improvement); +$17 Million YTD
    *Given operating improvements it looks like they're ready to make dividend payments on a quarterly basis.

    NEGATIVES:
    *"We also experienced a large change in the net fair value of mark-to-market adjustment this quarter, which was the net charge of $25.7 million. This non-cash amount is comprised of $2.1 million of asset pricing improvements on our Taberna securities offset by a $6.8 million increase in the non-recourse debt financing of these portfolios and further reduced by a $21 million increase in the related interest rate hedges, reflecting the high volatility in long-term interest rates that we had experienced recently"
    >> Did LT Interest Rates have high volatility recently? Is the company not good at anticipating moves in interest rates and if so what impact does this have on the company? Since this is a Mark to Market thing perhaps it will be reversed out next quarter? Something to wait and see.

    *You should read note 14 of the 10k (Annual Report) because it talks about Related Party Transactions. The long list of related party transactions makes me a little hesitant about management. I kid you not there is a list of about 14 different transactions between the Chairman of the Board and her family.

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  12. AnonymousJuly 31, 2011 at 4:14 PM

    I'm not saying RAS will be a bad investment; it certainly has the makings of a really good turnaround story, but there are some risks regarding management that I think it makes sense to ask the question about. If it all checks out then RAS could definitely be a multi-bagger with potentially a good chance of significant dividend raises in the future. The company has a book value of $20 per share and over time if it trades up to that level not only would it be an almost 4-bagger, but if it did get to that level it would also probably mean business is doing well and they are would be paying a 5 to 7% dividend, which would be a yield of about 18% to 25% on current prices...

    Alternatively, take a look at NCT, which appears to really have gained steam with it's turnaround and might be a great long term hold with the potential for SIGNIFICANT dividend raises in the future. I haven't fully checked this one out but it looks good at first glance.

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  13. AnonymousJuly 31, 2011 at 4:16 PM

    Sorry for the bad grammar.

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  14. 2nd_aveJuly 31, 2011 at 5:07 PM

    DJIA futes +153, ES +17

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  15. 2nd_aveJuly 31, 2011 at 5:08 PM

    Can't decide if the above is good or bad. Do we sell off on the news, or spike up further?

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  16. 2nd_aveJuly 31, 2011 at 5:09 PM

    And should a ST trader sell the spike?

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  17. AnonymousJuly 31, 2011 at 5:51 PM

    2nd im sticking by my calll...we see more weakness first to get enough off board then we rally in 4 to 6 weeks

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  18. 2nd_aveJuly 31, 2011 at 6:32 PM

    Nikkei back above 10k.

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  19. 2nd_aveJuly 31, 2011 at 6:44 PM

    Come on, tof. After six straight days of declines, let me enjoy one freaking night of gains. Even if it's only temporary.

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  20. AnonymousJuly 31, 2011 at 7:17 PM

    Ha absolutely man! I ain't shorting stuff myself so im on your side...would love to see some more viix spikes and panic...rinse wash repeat.

    ReplyDelete
  21. ChickenpookieJuly 31, 2011 at 7:22 PM

    I'm beginning to think TOF's our secret weapon. ;)

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  22. MarkWJuly 31, 2011 at 8:03 PM

    2 games today, 4 goals...

    http://www.screencast.com/t/les4Q2DY7gb

    So what's up?

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  23. MarkWJuly 31, 2011 at 8:35 PM

    OK, so we all knew this was going to be the play. I guess the question is will it be all gone before we wake up? I kinda suspect so.

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  24. ChickenpookieJuly 31, 2011 at 9:28 PM

    "So what's up?"

    Chicken butt, two cents a cut! More, if you want the lips too...

    ReplyDelete
  25. RoBearJuly 31, 2011 at 10:01 PM

    I would like to trade a marke on earnings or actual econ news. How an you trust a rally due to a country that is allowed to borrow more money. Strangely the dollar is flat and bonds are selling off.

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  26. RoBearJuly 31, 2011 at 10:03 PM

    Gee wiz I think I'm missing letters on my key board. Above message is same ole whinny BS! WHy wouldn't we test the 1340 1360 area next week?

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  27. RoBearJuly 31, 2011 at 10:06 PM

    Neil only got two goals today. I'm going to give him a good licking for not keeping up with the Barry's.

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  28. ChickenpookieJuly 31, 2011 at 10:31 PM

    Don't you mean a licking for not keeping up with the Barry GIRLS?

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  29. 2nd_aveAugust 1, 2011 at 5:04 AM

    Is the debt limit now a done deal, or are we still waiting for final approval by the House and Senate?

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  30. 2nd_aveAugust 1, 2011 at 5:12 AM

    It appears it should pass the Senate, but faces a tougher audience in the House.

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  31. 2nd_aveAugust 1, 2011 at 5:13 AM

    Markets cannot seriously rally until it passes the House.

    In addition, we can now look forward to Debt Ceiling Part II around Thanksgiving.

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  32. MarkWAugust 1, 2011 at 6:25 AM

    Can you guys find anything on GMO?

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  33. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2011 at 6:28 AM

    Good thing I don't have my GTC buy order set too high:

    "We are sorry, but an error has occurred while trying to retrieve some of your data. Please try again later."

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  34. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2011 at 6:30 AM

    GMO - I don't see anything but $5.01 pre market.

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  35. AnonymousAugust 1, 2011 at 6:34 AM

    Sold my JPM Calls at $3.8 from Friday. Also bought 10 x SPY August $132 puts at $3.

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  36. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2011 at 6:36 AM

    The news from my broker, LOL!

    "Overview
    Today's Market Summary

    Most stocks are lower today. Although the major averages are little changed, declining issues lead advancing issues on the NYSE. The benchmark 10-year Treasury Bond is up today, its yield falling to 2.98%."

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  37. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2011 at 6:39 AM

    NLY - I guess Friday was the day to buy...

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  38. MarkWAugust 1, 2011 at 6:39 AM

    I'm seeing some big mark ups at the open getting killed now. Careful.

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  39. MarkWAugust 1, 2011 at 6:42 AM

    I want to go short here, but swing trades either way seem to risky for any real $'s.

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  40. AnonymousAugust 1, 2011 at 6:44 AM

    Mark > Yeah if you go short keep it small...I think the 50 DMA will act as resistance up above at 1,309. If we fall back below 1,295 its probably a good spot to go short but I give the market another day or so before it falls for real.

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  41. MarkWAugust 1, 2011 at 6:49 AM

    OCZ might be an interesting play off STEC.

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  42. 2nd_aveAugust 1, 2011 at 6:52 AM

    Opening gap reversal. Followed by ?

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  43. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2011 at 6:56 AM

    Gaps up have to close, right?

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  44. MarkWAugust 1, 2011 at 7:00 AM

    Looks like the market is calling BS. SPX off 12pts, GDX up 1.55%.

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  45. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2011 at 7:01 AM

    GMO - Seems like gradually, people are willing to pay more. I should probably sell it to one of them before the interest wanes...

    But that wasn't (and still isn't) my plan, that would be like selling TCK at $9.25...

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  46. 2nd_aveAugust 1, 2011 at 7:01 AM

    Nice play on the SPY puts, tof!

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  47. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2011 at 7:03 AM

    Oh lookie there, it's red already...

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  48. AnonymousAugust 1, 2011 at 7:05 AM

    2nd > If only I loaded up on them...

    Needless to say this is a bit bearish. Only a bit. Down 35 ES pts from overnight high

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  49. MarkWAugust 1, 2011 at 7:05 AM

    Coming up on S1 for SPX.

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  50. MarkWAugust 1, 2011 at 7:07 AM

    ALU getting closer to a gap fill.

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  51. 2nd_aveAugust 1, 2011 at 7:07 AM

    Sending a msg to the House, perhaps.

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  52. 2nd_aveAugust 1, 2011 at 7:08 AM

    Warning shot, if you will.

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  53. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2011 at 7:09 AM

    Major headfake specially designed for newbies, they didn't even wait for amateur hour to end. Hey, maybe I should read my broker's news after all?

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  54. AnonymousAugust 1, 2011 at 7:12 AM

    2nd > I honestly don't think this bearishness has much to do with the debt deal....its all a big cover for a weakening economy.

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  55. AnonymousAugust 1, 2011 at 7:13 AM

    We've got a weakening economy with cut backs in spending..that's not a good recipe for stock market gains.

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  56. MarkWAugust 1, 2011 at 7:15 AM

    CP- Too funny!!!

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  57. MarkWAugust 1, 2011 at 7:15 AM

    TOF- Sure seems like the data is moving in the wrong direction. ISM sucked today.

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  58. AnonymousAugust 1, 2011 at 7:15 AM

    The markets will need more signs of econ growth, which I suspect come with two better than expected jobs reports or with additional monetary stimulus. That's why I think there's a good chance we bounce around late August/early Sept. From the jobless claims it seems like the jobs report this month should be ok. If we get a weak report then the good ole Jackson Hole meeting will probably provide support for the market, just like last year.

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  59. AnonymousAugust 1, 2011 at 7:18 AM

    All momo stocks on my screen are green which is a good sign

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  60. AnonymousAugust 1, 2011 at 7:30 AM

    Alright I closed my SPY puts just now at $4.5 that I bought at the open.

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  61. AnonymousAugust 1, 2011 at 7:34 AM

    Switched sides and bought 10 x SPY August 128 Calls at $3.14

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  62. MarkWAugust 1, 2011 at 7:40 AM

    ALU gap fill is 3.64.

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  63. AnonymousAugust 1, 2011 at 7:47 AM

    This could have been the mother of all shakeouts. I'm see a lot of leading names with green and the VIX is still down.

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  64. illiniAugust 1, 2011 at 7:52 AM

    Paul Krugman says the deal will make the deeply depressed economy worse going forward:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/01/opinion/the-president-surrenders-on-debt-ceiling.html?_r=1&hp

    ReplyDelete
  65. 2nd_aveAugust 1, 2011 at 7:53 AM

    No, the mother of all shakeouts was The Great Shakeout of 2009.

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  66. AnonymousAugust 1, 2011 at 7:53 AM

    A-D line is positive still....

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  67. AnonymousAugust 1, 2011 at 7:54 AM

    2nd - Very true...mother of all intraday shakeouts?

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  68. 2nd_aveAugust 1, 2011 at 7:56 AM

    You could right about that. A +180 premarket reading > -80 points within 30 minutes of the open? That's volatile.

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  69. MarkWAugust 1, 2011 at 7:58 AM

    Well, it's shaken me out to the days job :)

    At the close papa jones.

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  70. AnonymousAugust 1, 2011 at 8:03 AM

    The underlying strength (A-D line, breadth) is still relatively ok but the market would need to bounce pretty soon to make this a fakeout.

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  71. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2011 at 8:05 AM

    Ron Paul - The way he talks, sounds like he wants the dollar to go up. What good would that accomplish in economic terms?

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  72. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2011 at 8:15 AM

    Debt ceiling - They had to raise it, or else they'd have to admit the US is BK after giving all that artificial resuscitation to the welfare banks.

    The only solution to the pollution is dilution, get set for phase QE3.

    ReplyDelete
  73. AnonymousAugust 1, 2011 at 8:38 AM

    So much for the bounce. I sold my SPY calls at a $400 loss...gave up some of those Puts gains.

    ReplyDelete
  74. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2011 at 8:59 AM

    When does the QE memo release occur, before or after HB&B covers their shorts?

    Unreal, they're so desperate they don't mind destroying the economy to save their own skins yet they bite off their nose to spite their face.

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  75. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2011 at 9:00 AM

    1266 double-top target today, or tomorrow?

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  76. 2nd_aveAugust 1, 2011 at 9:38 AM

    CP- After. It's amazing how cynical we've all become. And how often we're right to be cynical.

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  77. AnonymousAugust 1, 2011 at 9:56 AM

    back in SPY Calls...this time August $125 Calls...10 of them at $4.89

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  78. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2011 at 10:20 AM

    "July ISM manufacturing index slumps to 50.9%"

    Expectation was 54.3

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  79. AnonymousAugust 1, 2011 at 10:37 AM

    Financials have been outperforming the market.

    Green close?

    ReplyDelete

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